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=
=
n
t t t
t t
S
F X
F X
n
SMAPE
( ) ( ) f X , X K X , X K f
1 * *
=
AADECA 2012 Semana del Control Automtico 23 Congreso Argentino de Control Automtico
3 al 5 de Octubre de 2012 Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Fig. 2. Forecast La Sevillana rainfall using kernel.
Fig. 3. Forecast MG05 using kernel.
Fig. 4. ANN H independent algorithm for MG05.
Fig. 5. ANN H independent algorithm for the
forecasted portion of MG05.
Fig. 6. ANN H independent algorithm for La
Sevillana rainfall series.
Fig. 7. The forecasted portion of La Sevillana rainfall
series using ANN.
4.2 Comparative Results
The performance of the ANN and kernel algorithms
for forecasting short time series with uncertainties on
their data is evaluated through the SMAPE index in
equation (4), shown in Table and table 2 over MG05
and La Sevillana rainfall series.
AADECA 2012 Semana del Control Automtico 23 Congreso Argentino de Control Automtico
3 al 5 de Octubre de 2012 Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Table 1. Figures obtained by kernel algorithm
Series
No.
Real
mean
Mean
Forecasted
SMAPE
Fig.2 2.77 2.85 96.43
Fig.3 71.03 101.68 110.25
Table 2. Figures obtained by ANN algorithm
Series
No.
H H
e
Real
mean
Mean
Forecasted
SMAPE
Fig.4 0.2126 0.118 2.77 2.76 81.26
Fig.6 0.2856 0.277 71.03 93.68 98.25
The comparison between both approaches indicates
that the there is a good performance shown by ANN
against kernel filter to forecasted short time series
with uncertainty in dataset. In addition, kernels filters
demonstrate to be more accurate in order to predict
time series such as MG05 rather than ANN. the
results of the SMAPE obtained by the proposed
filters are shown in Fig. 2 to Fig. 7. Here is only
contemplated the real and forecasted mean by using a
dataset, in which the average of the interpolations of
the prior and posterior data was used. It can be noted
that both filter outperform a similar performance to
predict short time series, but the ANN is closer the
Real media than kernel when rainfall series is used.
5. DISCUSSION
The assessment of the obtained results resides in the
lack of data in order to make the prediction. Once the
dataset is linearly interloped, both filter the ANN and
kernel perform different behaviors using MG05 and
rainfall series. In the two-analyzed cases, the
generation of 15 future values from 79 present values
was made by each filter. The same initial parameters
were used for each algorithm; the coefficients and the
structure of the filter are tuned by considering their
stochastic dependency of the short time series. Note
that the forecasts improvement is not over any given
time series, which results from the use of a short term
stochastic characteristic for generates a deterministic
result, such as a prediction. So, another technique
could be performed to interpolate when there is a
lack of data in short time series.
6. CONCLUSIONS
In this work neural networks based algorithms for
forecasting short time series with uncertainties on
their data have been presented. One of them uses a
ANN algorithm based on a heuristic law to tune its
parameters. The other one, gives exact interpolation
due to the nature of the kernel NN amd uses a genetic
algorithm to determine the filter parameters. The
learning rule proposed to adjust the NNs weights is
based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method.
Furthermore, in function of the short term stochastic
dependence of the time series, an on-line heuristic
adaptive law was set to update the ANNs topology in
order to forecast the next 15 values taking into
account that the results of the forecasted series was
originally interpolated by completing and averaging
with prior and posterior data following a proposed
linear method to fill the lack of data in the real series.
The main result shows a good performance of the
ANNs predictor system against GPs applied to short
time series forecasting when the observations are
taken from a single point, due to similar roughness
for both the original and the forecasted time series,
evaluated by H and H
e
respectively. These results
encourage us to continue working with this new
learning algorithm, applying to other NN models, to
generate the future scenario for decision-making for
agriculture producers.
6.1 Acknowledgments
This work was supported by Universidad Nacional de
Crdoba (UNC), FONCYT-PDFT PRH N3 (UNC
Program RRHH03), SECYT-UNC, National
University of Catamarca, Institute of Automatic
(INAUT) National University of San Juan and
National Agency for Scientific and Technological
Promotion (ANPCyT).
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