Chapter 5 Probability: Review of Basic Concepts

I. II. III. IV. Graphic Summary Problem Solutions Exercise Set Self-Examination Notes:

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I.

Graphic Summary Probability

Classical Approach

Relative Frequency Approach Number of possible outcomes in which the event occurs Total number of trials

Subjective Approach

P=

Number of possible outcomes in which the event occurs Total number of possible outcomes

Determination of probability is simply a "hunch"; an educated guess

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Representations of Sample Spaces

Tabular Contingency Table Visual Venn Diagram

Mutually Exclusive:

No ele ment is in two categories at the same time.

The areas for each category not overlap, or, if they do, the common area contains no elements. [A B]

1cD

Exhaustive:

Every element is in at least one of the categories given,

Every element is in one of the areas given. No element is in the shaded area.

Intersection:

All elements that are in both categories given.

Union:

All elements in either category given.

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Some Straight Talk About Unions and Intersections and the Addition Rules for Probability
Suppose we have two sets of elements, set A and set B. The number of elements in A or in B, taken together in the union of A and B, cannot be the simple sum of the elements in A plus the elements in B. Why? By adding all the elements in B to all the elements in A, some of the elements are double-counted. Which ones? The elements in the intersection of A and B are counted twice, once when we count the members of A and again when we add the members of B. So, to get an accurate count of the number of elements in the union of A and B, we have to add Bs elements to As elements and then subtract those elements that are in the intersection of A and B. Number of elements in the unionofAandB Number of elements in the intersection of AandB

Number of elements in setA

Number of elements in setB

However, ifA and B are mutually exclusive, there are no elements in their intersection, and Number of elements in the unionofAandB Number of elements in setA Number of elements in setB

Zero

So, if you remember that the intersection of mutually exclusive sets is empty, you only need to remember the first equation and substitute zero for the number in the intersection of the two sets. Now, remembering that a probability is the number of elements divided by the total number of trials, lets convert the first equation to probabilities. PA or B
=

PA

PB

PA and B

And that rule is true whether A and B are mutually exclusive or not. If they are mutually exclusive, then PA and B = 0, and PA or B = PA + PB.

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Illustrations of Different Probabilities

Suppose we have the following contingency table, showing four regions of the United States in which people live and three types of music people listen to. Classical Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest 50 105 80 65 Country 40 85 70 55 Rock 85 160 125 80

Lets total the number of people in each region and the number of people who listen to each of the types of music. Classical Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest 50 105 80 65 300 Country 40 85 70 55 250 Rock 85 160 125 80 450 175 350 275 200 1,000

A Marginal Probability is the sum sitting in the margin either the margin at the right
or the margin at the bottom divided by the total number of trials, which, in this ex ample, is 1,000. So, the marginal probability that a person in the sample: *listens to rock music is 450/1000, or 0.450. *lives in the Northwest is 200/1000, or 0.200. *listens to country music is 250/1000, or 0.250. *lives in the Southeast is 175/1000, or 0.175.

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More on Types of Probabilities

Continuing with our example, let us define a joint probability. Ajoint probability is the probability that two or more events will all occur. Classical Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest 50 105 80 65 300 Country 40 85 70 55 250 Rock 85 160 125 80 450 175 350 275 200 1,000

So the joint probability that a person in the sample: *lives in the Southwest and listens to rock music is 160/1000, or 0.160. *lives in the Northeast and listens to classical is 80/1000, or 0.080. *listens to country music and lives in the Southwest is 85/1000, or 0.085.

A Conditional Probability is the probability that an event will occur given that an
other event has already happened. It is computed by taking the joint probability that both events occur and dividing by the marginal probability that the given event occurs. So the conditional probability that a person selected at random: *lives in the Southwest given you know he/she listens to rock music is the probabil ity of living in the Southwest and listening to rock divided by the marginal prob ability of listening to rock music, or and rock 0.160 PSouthwest I rock = 0.3556. = Prock = 0.450 PSouthwes *listens to country given you know he/she lives in the Southwest is the probability of listening to country and living in the Southwest divided by the marginal prob ability of living in the Southwest, or and Southwest Pcountry 0.085 Pcountry I Southwest = 0.243. = PSouthwest = 0.350

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Mutually Exclusive versus Independent Events If two sets are mutually exclusive, there is literally nothing in one that is also in the
other. If two events are mutually exclusive, one event cannot occur if the other event does occur. Examples include "on/off, "yes/no", "win/lose". Mutually exclusive events need not appear in pairs. As long as no element in one set also appears in an other, the sets are mutually exclusive. If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then PA and B
=

0 and PB I A as well as PA I B =0

If two events are independent, the fact that one event occurs does not affect the chances that the other event will also occur. Unlike mutually exclusive events, inde pendent events may both occur. Or they may not. If the two sets are independent, the conditional probability that an element of set A is also in set B is the same as the mar ginal probability that the element is in set B to begin with. Thus, the fact that the ele ment is in *does not affect *has nothing to do with its chances of also being a member of B. t .is independent from J

set A

Computationally, if two events are independent, then their joint probability is the product of their two marginal probabilities. Why? Because the probability that an element is in A does not change if the element is also in B. So, PA and B
= =

PA x PB I A PA x PB if the events A and B are independent.

If the two events are not independent, however, the fact that an element is in set A does affect the probability that it is also in B. If two events are not independent, the conditional probability that an element is in B given you know it is in A does not equal the marginal probability that the element is in B. So, PA and B
=

PA x PB I A if the events A and B are dependent.

______________________________ ______________________________ _________ _________

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Contingency Tables and Probability Trees

Lets return to the example we developed earlier in this chapter, and develop a probability tree that displays the same information as the contingency table. Classical Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest 50 105 80 65 300 Country 40 85 70 55 250 Rock 85 160 125 80 450 175 350 275 200 1,000

Region 50/175 40/175 85/175

Type ofMusic Classical Country Rock Classical Country Rock Classical Country Rock Classical Country Rock

Southeast 175/1000

Southwest_ 350/1000

105/350 85/350 160/350 80/275 70/275 125/275 65/200 5 5/200 80/200

Northeast 275/1000

Notice that the regional probabilities are all marginal probabilities, and the probabilities for each type of music in each of the four regions are all conditional probabilities. So, the probability that someone listens to classical, for example, changes depending on which region he/she lives in.

Northwest 200/1000

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Using Contingency Tables to Flip Probability Trees

The probability tree we developed on the prior page shows the regions first and the types of music preferred as contingent upon the region in which someone lives. But, suppose we want to show the tree the other way around; that is, suppose we wanted to show the types of music first and the regional identifications as contingent upon the types of music preferred. Classical Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest 50 105 80 65 300 Country 40 85 70 55 250 Rock 85 160 125 80 450 175 350 275 200 1,000

Type ofMusic 50/300 Classical

Region Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Northeast Northwest

40/250 250/1000

8 5/450 Rock 450/1000

Notice now that the music types are marginal probabilities, and the probabilities for each region are all conditional probabilities. So, the probability that someone lives in the Southeast, for example, changes depending on which type of music he! she listens to.

___________________________ ________

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Tree-Flipping with Bayes Theorem

When events are sequentially arranged, as with the two probability trees we have just developed, information from a second event can be used to revise the probability that the first event has occurred. Lets revisit our first probability tree for an example. Region 50/175 40/175 85/175 105/350 85/350 160/350 80/275 70/275 125/275 65/200 55/200 80/200 Type ofMusic Classical Country Rock Classical Country Rock Classical Country Rock Classical Country Rock We know from this display that Pclassical I Northwest = 65/200. And we know that the marginal probability of living in the Northwest is 200/1000. Now, suppose we observe a person at random and notice he/she is listening to classical music. Given we know the person listens to classical music, what is the probability that person lives in the Northwest? What we want to find, then, is the PNorthwest I classical.

Southeast 175/1000

Southwest 350/1000

Northeast 275/1000

Northwest 200/1000 Continued on next page.

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Tree-Flipping with Bayes Theorem, continued

PNorthwest Remember that the PNorthwest I classical = and classical Pclassical

So, our first step is to compute Pclassical. To accomplish that, we look for all the branches of the tree where people listen to classical music. Southeast Pclassical
=1

Southwest
+1

Northeast x

Northwest x

P175 [000

x 50 1000

Po
[000

17J

35J [000
+

1011I +1P275

27J

801 +1P200
+

[000

20j

651I
300 1000

105 1000

80 1000

65 1000
=

And, we know from the above tree that PNorthwest and classical

65/1000.

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Tree-Flipping: A Comparison of Methods

Now, compare the result we just derived with Bayes Theorem to the tree we flipped using the contingency table. Notice that both results show PNorthwest I classical 65/300. So, we are able to accomplish the same result two different ways. Being able to use Bayes Theorem, however, is a real asset when you do not have a complete contingency table to work with. For the formal statement of the theorem, see your textbook. For now, lets review here the general form of the theorem. We will assume that you are given enough information to construct a complete probability tree with which to work. 1. First, focus on the question being asked. Write out the conditional probability the question poses, such as "Find PB I A." Next, write down the definition of the conditional probability, such as the joint probailty of B and A PB and A PB I A PA the marginal probability of the condition
-

2.

3.

The next step is the crux of your computation. To compute the marginal probability of the condition, PA, identify all the branches of the tree where that condition holds. Use the Multiplication Rule for Probability to compute the probability associated with each of the branches you identified. And then add up the products you computed for the total marginal probability of the condition, PA. This sum will be the denominator of your answer. Now, identify the branch where both conditions B and A exist. Again, use the Multiplication Rule for Probability to compute the joint probability. This product will be the numerator of your final answer, PB and A. Finally, form the ratio of the joint probability over the marginal probability to determine the value of PB I A.

4.

5.

Remember that what Bayes Theorem allows you to do is switch the conditions. Using Bayes Theorem, you can compute PB I A from a tree that has PA I B.

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Orderings and Factorials

The same three items can be arranged six different ways when the order in which they appear is important. The number of ways n things can be arranged is n! read "n factorial", where n! = n x n-i x n-2 x x 1. Suppose Hometown, USA, just announced the first, second, and third place winners of the Volunteer of the Year Award. The three candidates can be uniquely ordered 3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 different ways. They might look like this:
...

1st

2nd 3rd

1st

2nd

3rd

1st

2nd

3rd

1st

2nd

3rd

1st

2nd

3rd

1st

2nd

3rd

Suppose that a newspaper reporter is trying to get to Hometown to cover the banquet scheduled tomorrow night. She can drive one of three cars in the papers car pooi, and she can select from four different routes to get there. According to the Principle of Multiplication, there are 3 x 4 or 12 different ways for the reporter to get to Hometown.

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Permutations
When order is important, as in the Volunteer of the Year Award, the arrangements are called Permutations. Suppose we wanted to select two winners, a first and a second, out of four finalists. The local newspaper might run one of the following twelve pair of pictures.

The Finalists

&a

The Possible Winners Thus, there are twelve unique pairs of possible winners when order is important. We call this set the number of permutations of 4 objects taken 2 at a time. Computationally, n! 4! 4x3x2x 1 or = 12 n-r! 2! 2xi

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Combinations
When order is not important, the arrangement is called a Combination. Suppose the Hometown City Council wants to name a special committee to study more effective ways to utilize volunteers in the community. From a panel of four candidates, the Council will select two people to serve on the committee. The order in which the candidates are selected is not important. How many different committees can the Council form from the four candidates?

C
The Candidates

L
Notice that there are six pairs of duplicate committees in the twelve permutations identified on the prior page. While there are twelve unique permutations of 4 people taken 2 at a time, there are only six unique combinations of 4 people taken 2 at a time when the order in which they are selected is not important. Computationally, n 4 r! n-r! or 4! 2! 4-2! 4x3x2xi 2 x 1 x2x 1 6 unique committees of 2 people each can be selected from 4 people

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II.

Problem Solutions

STUDY GUIDE PROBLEM: Fatalities from poisoning by gases and vapors during one year are described in the following conti ngency table of frequencies, where M = male, F female. 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65 <5 311 188 117 M 14 20 137 66 84 F 11 9 65 57 For a randomly selected victim of poisoning by gases and vapors, determine: a PM b PF c PFand5-14 d PForS-14 e PM and 25-44 f PM or 25-44 g PM I 25-44 h PF I 25-44 i PF or 5-14 or 45-64 j P[F] and [5-14 or 45-64]

THIS PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF PROBABILITIES. ANSWERS a Pmale NOTES Marginal or simple probability Take the number of males and divide by the
total number ofpeople.

ANSWER:

1079

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STUDY GUIDE PROBLEM, continued b Pfemale Marginal or simple probability Take the number offemales and divide by the total number ofpeople. * ANSWER:
=

*Another way to work this is to recognize that being male and being female are complementary events. So Pfemale = 1 Pmale = 1 787/1079 = 292/1079
-

c Pfemale and 5-14

Joint probability Intersection of two events Take the number ofpeople who are both female and aged 5-14, and divide by the total number ofpeople.

ANSWER:

1079 Union of two events Not mutually exclusive events

d Pfemale or 5-14

292 29 1079 + 1079

=

9 1079

Use Addition Rule for Probability, PA or B = PA + PB PA and B

-

ANSWER:

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STUDY GUIDE PROBLEM, continued e Pmale and 25-44 Joint probability Intersection of two events Take the number ofpeople who are both male and aged 25-44, and divide by the total number ofpeople. ANSWER: 79 Union of two events Not mutually exclusive events 376 787 1079 + 1079
=

Pmale or 25-44

311 1079

Use Addition Rule for Probability, PA or B = PA + PB PA and B

-

ANSWER:

852 1079 Conditional Probability Take the number of people who are both male and 25-44, and divide by the number of people who are 25-44.

g Pmale I 25-44

ANSWER:

h Pfemale I25-44

Conditional Probability Take the number ofpeople who are both female and 25-44, and divide by the number ofpeople who are 25-44.

ANSWER:

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STUDY GUIDE PROBLEM, continued

i Pfemale or 5-14 or 45-64

Union of three events Visualize the Venn diagram relating the three events of interest:

292

29

245
-

9
1079
-

57
1079

1079 + 1079 + 1079 -0+0 500 1079

Use PA PA PA

the general rule of addition, or B or C = PA + PB + PC and B PA and C PB and C + and B and C

-

ANSWER:

P[female] and [5-14 or 45-64]

Visualize the Venn diagram relating the three events of interest:

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STUDY GUIDE PROBLEM, continued 9 1079 57 1079 Pfemale and [5-14 or 45-64] Pfemale and 5-14 + Pfemale and 45-64 P5-14 and 45-64
-

ANSWER:

1079

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PROBLEM 5.69: Data from the Federal Bureau ofInvestigation show that 1 ofevery 155 motor vehicles was stolen during 1997. Applying this statistic to 5 motor vehicles randomly selected from the nations auto population: a What is the probability that none of the 5 motor vehicles will be stolen? b What is the probability that all 5 motor vehicles will be stolen? c How many possibilities exist in which 2 of the 5 motor vehicles are stolen?

THIS PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE MULTIPLICATION RULES AND COMBINATIONS. ANSWERS a Pnone of 5 cars stolen Joint probability Each of the five events is independent of the others.
=

NOTES

PA x PB x PC x PD x PE

Use the Multiplication Rulefor independent events, where the probability of a single event is 154/155.

r1n ANSWER:
=

Li 55]

--

I = 0.9682
Joint probability Each of thefive events is independent of the others.

b Pall 5 cars stolen

PA x PB x PC x PD x PE

Use the Multiplication Rule for independent

events, where the probability of a single event

is 1/155.

ANSWER:
=

[]

1 i

0.03 18

Notice that parts a and b are complements of one another. So one answer is 1 minus the other answer.

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PROBLEM 5.69, continued c How many ways can 2 of 5 motor vehicles be stolen? Order in which the motor vehicles are stolen is not important. Combination of independent events 2 5! 2 x HANDHELD CALCULATOR: Most calculators will automatically calculate combinations. Check your calculator keypad or look in your owners manualfor
instructions.

MICROSOFT EXCEL: In a cell on an Excel spreadsheet, type: = combin5,2 You can also activate Excels combination function under the function key on the top menu bar. Select either ALL or MATH & TRIG categories and double click on COMBINATION to bring up the dialog box. ANSWER:
=

10

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97

PROBLEM 5.74: Special Note: The solutions are developed with and without the probability tree. Notice how much easier the problem is to work once its probability tree is developed. Spend some time relating the solutions using probability rules with those using the tree. In examining borrower characteristics versus loan delinquency, a bank has collected the following information: 115% of the borrowers who have been employed at their present job for less than 3 years are behind in their payments; 2 5% ofthe borrowers who have been employed at their present job for at least 3 years are behind in their payments; 3 80% ofthe borrowers have been employed at their present job for at least 3 years. Given this information: a What is the probability that a randomly selected loan account will be for a person in the same job for at least 3 years who is behind in making payments? b What is the probability that a randomly selected loan account will be for a person in the same job for less than 3 years or who is behind in making payments? c If a loan account is behind, what is the probability that the loan is for a person who has been in the same job for less than 3 years?

THIS PROBLEM DEALS WITH CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND TREE-FLIPPING. ANSWERS a Pat least 3 years and behind Joint probability Intersection of events Pbehind I at least 3 yrs Pat least 3 yrs = 0.80
=

NOTES

0.05

List the information given in the problem. Write out the definition of the conditional probability. Answer is the numerator of the fraction defining the conditional probability. Solve for the numerator.

Pbehind Iat least 3 yrs Pbehind and at least 3yrs Pat least 3 yrs
-

Pbehind I at least 3 yrs 0.05 x so

x Pat least 3 yrs

=

j=

0.05 0.80

ANSWER:

0.05 0.80

0.04 OR Construct the appropriate probability tree from the information given.

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PROBLEM 5.74, continued 0.15

Behind

0.03

Less then 3 jrs 0.20

0.85

Not behind 0.17

0.05
t

Behind

0.04

least 3 yrs 0.80

0.g5

Not behind 0.76

Note that the answer to part a is the probability of being at the third branch of the tree shown below.
=

0.80 0.05

Use the Multiplication Rule to compute probability for the third branch.

ANSWER:

0.04

b Pless than 3 yrs or behind

=

Pless than 3 yrs + Pbehind Pless than 3 yrs and behind

Union of events. Use the Addition Rule. First, we need to find Pless than 3 yrs and behind

Pbehind Iless than 3 yrs Pbehind and les than 3yrs Pless than 3 yrs
-

Write out definition of conditional probability. The joint probability Pless than 3 yrs and behind is the numerator of the fraction defining the conditional probability. Solvefor the numerator.

Pbehind Iless than 3 yrs

-

x Pless than 3 yrs

0.15
-

x 0.20

so

0.150.20=x
=

0. 15 0.20

0.03

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PROBLEM 5.74, continued Pbehind = Pless than 3 yrs x Pbehind Iless than 3 yrs Pat least 3 yrs x Pbehind Iat least 3 yrs 0.20 0.15 + 0.80 0.05 0.03 + 0.04 Pbehind = 0.07
= = =

Next, we need to find Pbehind.

+

Pless than 3 yrs + Pbehind Pless than 3 yrs and behind 0.20 + 0.07 0.03
-

Finally, we put it all together, using the Addition Rule we already cited.

ANSWER:

0.24 OR

Part b, alternate solution

Construct the appropriate probability tree from the information given. See the tree shown in part a solution. Note that the answer is the probability of less than 3 yrs plus the probability of those who are more than three yrs and behind.

0.20

0.04

To the Pless than 3 yrs, then, we add the probability of being on the third branch of the tree.

ANSWER:

0.24

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PROBLEM 5.74, continued c Pless than 3 yrs Ibehind Pless than 3 yrs Ibehind Ples than 3 yrs and behind Pbehind
-

Conditional probability Write out the definition of the conditional probability. Repeat calculation for Pless than 3 yrs and behind completed in Part b above. Repeat calculation for Pbehind completed in Part b above. Substitute values into the definition for the conditionalprobability.

Pless than 3 yrs and behind Pbehind

0.03

0.07

Pless than 3 yrs Ibehind ANSWER:

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101

PROBLEM 5.77: The chairperson of the accounting department has three summer courses available: Accounting 201, Accounting 202, and Accounting 305. Twelve faculty are available for assignment to these courses and no faculty member can be assigned to more than one of them. In how many ways can the chairperson assign faculty to these courses?

THIS PROBLEM DEALS WITH PROBABILITIES AND PERMUTATION. ANSWER How many ways can three courses be filled by the pool of twelve faculty? 12! =l2xllxlO Order is important. Permutation, 12 things taken 3 at a time HANDHELD CALCULATOR: Most calculators will automatically calculate permutations. Check your calculator keypad or look in your owners manual for instructions. MICROSOFT EXCEL: In a cell on an Excel spreadsheet, type: = permut12,3 You can also activate Excels combination function under the function key on the top menu bar. Select the STATISTICAL category and double click on PERMUTATION to bring up the dialog box. ANSWER: 1,320 ways NOTES

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III. Exercise Set Exercise Set 5

1. Suppose that fatalities from poisoning by gases and vapors rose in another year see the extra problem. And suppose you found the following probability tree in the next years literature relating sex ofthe victim with age brackets. A. From the probability tree below, reconstruct the contingency table of frequencies.
17/flu

t2BlUl 1

Male
811/1153

Less than 5 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 Greater than 65 Less than 5 5-14

Female

B/342

342/1153

15-24
65/342 25-44 45-64 Greater than 65

B. For a randomly selected victim of poisoning by gases and vapors, determine the following probabilities: a Pmale c Pfemale and 5-14 e Pmale and 25-44 g Pmale I 25-44 i Pfemale or 5-14 or 45-64 b Pfemale d Pfemale or 5-14 f Pmale or 25-44 h Pfemale I 25-44

j P[femalej and [5-14 or 45-64]

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2. Suppose that data from the local county sheriffs office showed that 2 ofevery 541 automobiles in the county were vandalized last year. a Is this a population or a sample measure? b Applying this to 7 cars randomly selected from the countys automobile population, what is the probability that all ofthe 7 cars will be vandalized? c Applying this to 7 cars randomly selected from the countys automobile population, what is the probability that none of the 7 cars will be vandalized? d How many possibilities exist in which 3 ofthe 7 automobiles will be vandalized? 3. In examining customer telephone habits versus income levels, a regional telephone study reported the following information: 1 25% of the heavy long-distance users had annual household income in excess of $50,000, 2 90% of the medium-to-light long-distance customers had annual household income below $50,000, and 3 70% of the long-distance users fall into the medium-to-light user group. Given this information: a What is the probability that a randomly selected telephone account will be for a heavy longdistance user with an annual household income in excess of $50,000? b What is the probability that a randomly selected telephone account will be for a medium-to-light long-distance user with an annual household income in excess of $50,000? c If a telephone account to a household with annual income in excess of $50,000 is selected, what is the probability that the account is for a person who is a heavy long-distance user? 4. Five new drivers report to the regional office of the National Parcel Delivery NPD, where seven delivery routes remain uncovered. Each driver can only be assigned to one route. In how many ways can the new drivers be assigned to the available delivery routes?

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Answers: Exercise Set 5

l.A. AGE <5 Male SEX Female Totals 17 5-14 25 8 33 15-24 128 74 202 25-44 327 85 412 45-64 196 61 257 65 118 101 211 Totals: 811 342 1153

13
30

1.B.
a 811/1153 d 367/1153 g 327/412 b 342/1153 e 327/1153 h 85/412 c 8/1153

0 896/1153
i 563/1153

j 69/ 1153
r 2

2. a sample measure 7 d 3 3. a 0.075 4. 42 7! 3!4!

I-

L 541

r
L 541

35
b 0.07 c 0.145

0.075

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IV.

Self-Examination: Chapter 5
You have applied for a job and are told by the interviewer that the probability ofyour being hired is 0.60. Your odds of being hired are: a. 0.6to4,or3to50 b. 6tolO,or3to5 c. 6to4,or3to2 d. 40to60,or2to3 e. 100 to 60, or5to3

2.

Your instructor announced that he gives a pop quiz in 20% ofthe class meetings. What are the odds that you will have a pop quiz in a given class meeting? a. 0.2 to 80, or 1 to 400 b. 2tol0,orlto5 c. 2to8,orlto4 d. 80to20,or4tol e. 100 to 20, or 5 to 1
-

USE THE FOLLOWING FOR THE NEXT TEN QUESTIONS #3 #12: The table below gives the probabilities of religious and political affiliations in a major U.S. city. A B C D Protestant Catholic Jewish Other E Democrat 0.30 0.10 0.05 0.02 F Republican 0.25 0.10 0.02 0.02 G Independent 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.02 3. What is the probability that a person selected at random is a Catholic? a. 0.10 b. 0.25 c. 0.47 d. 0.75 e. 0.82 What are the odds that a person selected at random is a Catholic? a. lOto9O,orlto9 b. 25to75,orlto3 c. 47to53 d. 75to25,or3tol e. 100 to 25, or 4 to 1 What is the probability that a person selected at random is a Catholic and a Republican? a. 0.10 b. 0.25 c. 0.39 d. 0.40 e. 0.43

4.

5.

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Introduction to Business Statistics Study Guide

6.

What is the probability that a person selected at random is a Catholic and at the same time either a Democrat or a Republican? a. 0.11 b. 0.20 c. 0.25 d. 0.86 e. 0.90 What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a Democrat whose religion is neither Catholic nor Jewish? a. 0.15 b. 0.20 c. 0.28 d. 0.32 e. 0.40 Given a person randomly selected is known to be Protestant, what is the probability the person is a Democrat? a. 0.28 b. 0.47 C. 0.50 d. 0.64 e. 0.70 Given a person randomly selected is known to be Democrat, what is the probability the person is a Protestant? a. 0.28 b. 0.47 C. 0.50 d. 0.64 e. 0.70 Given a person randomly selected is known to be not a Protestant, what is the probability the person is a Democrat? a. 0.17 b. 0.19 c. 0.27 d. 0.425 e. 0.452 Find the probability PFIB. a. 0.10 b. 0.26 c. 0.40 d. 0.64 e. 0.70

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Find the probability PBIF. a. 0.10 b. 0.26 c. 0.40 0.64 d. e. 0.70

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USE THE FOLLOWING FOR THE NEXT SIX QUESTIONS #13 #18: A personnel manager is reviewing the number of overtime hours worked by employees in her plant last month. She compiled the following data: No. of Overtime Hours Worked 0 1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 More than 8 13. No. of Employees 15 21 24 42 12 6 Probability Px 0.125 0.175 0.200 0.350 0.100 0.050

Which variable measures the frequency? a. Number of overtime hours worked b. Number of employees c. Probability d. Probability times number of overtime hours worked e. Probability times number ofemployees What is the probability that a randomly selected employee worked no overtime hours last month? a. 0.125 b. 0.30 C. 0.50 d. 0.875 e. 0.925 What is the probability that a randomly selected employee worked at most 4 overtime hours last month? 0.125 a. b. 0.30 C. 0.50 0.875 d. 0.925 e.

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Introduction to Business Statistics Study Guide

16.

What is the probability that a randomly selected employee worked less than 7 overtime hours last month? a. 0.10 b. 0.85 c. 0.90 d. 0.95 e. 0.975 What is the probability that a randomly selected employee worked less than 7 but more than 4 overtime hours last month? a. 0.35 b. 0.65 c. 0.85 d. 0.95 e. 0.975 What is the probability that a randomly selected employee worked at least 3 but less than 7 overtime hours? a. 0.20 b. 0.35
C.

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0.55
0.65 0.95
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d. e.

USE THE FOLLOWING FOR THE NEXT FOUR QUESTIONS #19 #22: A sidewalk yogurt vendor sells three flavors: chocolate, vanilla, and fruit. Forty percent of sales are chocolate, while 35% are vanilla with the rest fruit flavored. Sales are by the cone or the cup. The percentages of cones sales for chocolate, vanilla and fruit, respectively, are 80%, 60% , and 40%. For a randomly selected sale, let A1 = event chocolate chosen A2 = event vanilla chosen A3 = event fruit chosen B = event yogurt on a cone 19. Find the probability PB. a. 0.20 b. 0.37 c. 0.63 d. 0.80 e. 0.95 Find the PA2IB. a. 0.1419 b. 0.210 c. 0.320 d. 0.3333... e. 0.420

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Find the probability PB . a. 0.20 b. 0.37 c. 0.63 d. 0.80 e. 0.95 Find the posterior probability that, given the yogurt was sold in a cup, it was fruit yogurt. a. 0.1419 b. 0.210 c. 0.320 d. 0.3333... e. 0.420 Six students from a statistics class have formed a study group. Each may or may not attend a study session. Assuming that the members will be making independent decisions on whether or not to attend, how many different possibilities exist for the composition of the study session? a. 6 b. 64 c. 120 d. 720 e. 980 At a track meet, six runners are competing in the 100-yard dash. First, second and third place trophies will be awarded. In how many ways can the trophies be awarded? a. 6 b. 64 c. 120 d. 720 e. 980 An investment counselor would like to meet with 12 of her clients on Wednesday, but she only has time for 8 appointments. How many different ways can the clients be considered for inclusion into her limited schedule for the day if the order in which the clients are scheduled is not important? a. 96 495 b. c. 95,040 79,833,600 d. e. 695,782,043,300

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Introduction to Business Statistics Study Guide

Answers to Self-Examination: Chapter

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25.

C C B B A B D C D D C B B A C B A C C D B A B C B

Topic: odds Topic: odds Topic: marginal probability Topic: odds Topic: joint probability, unions and intersections Topic: unions and intersections Topic: unions and intersections Topic: conditional probability, unions and intersetions Topic: conditional probability, unions and intersections Topic: conditional probability, unions and intersections Topic: conditional probability, unions and intersections Topic: conditional probability, unions and intersections Topic: frequency distributions Topic: simple probability Topic: unions and intersections Topic: unions and intersections Topic: unions and intersections Topic: unions and intersections Topic: Bayes Topic: Bayes Topic: complements Topic: Bayes Topic: multiplication rule Topic: permutation Topic: combination