Chapter 5: Special Probability Distributions

Section 6: The Hypergeometric Distribution

Suppose that you have an urn containing 30 balls. Ten of the balls are red.
Set up the probability for choosing five balls without replacement with three
of the balls being red.

In determining the probabilities involving a binomial distribution, we have
assumed that the trials are independent.
In this section we will assume the trials are not independent. We will
consider a set of N elements of which M are successes and N M are
failures. We are interested in finding the probability of getting x successes
in n trials. In this case we are choosing without replacement, n of the N
elements contained in a set.

Number of ways of choosing x of the M successes: |
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x
M

Number of ways of choosing n x of the N M failures: |
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\
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x n
M N

Number of ways of choosing x successes and n x failures: |
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\
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x
M
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x n
M N

Number of ways of choosing n of the N elements in the set: |
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\
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n
N

The probability of choosing x successes in n trials:
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\
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\
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\
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n
N
x n
M N
x
M


Definition 5.6: A random variable X has a hypergeometric distribution
and it is referred to as a hypergeometric random variable if and only if its
probability distribution is given by

( )
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\
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\
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=
n
N
x n
M N
x
M
M N n x h , , ;

for x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n x < M and n x < N M

Example: On an athletic team there are 16 players. Five of the players are
using banned substances. What is the probability that a random sample of
four players will include exactly one player using a banned substance?


Theorem 5.7. The mean and variance of the hypergeometric distribution
are

( )( )
( ) 1
2
2

= =
N N
n N M N nM
N
nM
o


When N is large and n is relatively small compared to N (n < 0.05N), there
is little difference in the probabilities for sampling with and without
replacement.

In a lot of 1000 parts, 20 of the parts are defective. Find the probability of
choosing 10 parts and finding at least 2 defective parts.