SEPAs routine environmental monitoring has given us a unique dataset with long-term data on a range of

environmental parameters across Scotland. That data is very useful for understanding change in the
environment because analysing it increases our understanding of climate-driven trends, and helps us learn
where changes to current monitoring practice may be needed to address knowledge gaps.
SEPA recognises that climate change is the greatest threat to the future of the planets ecosystems, with
significant socio-economic consequences for humankind. This factsheet is one of a series which uses our
existing monitoring data to investigate the impacts of climate change on the environment in Scotland.
Trends in
organic carbon in
Scottish rivers and lochs
Summary
Scottish soils hold a large amount of carbon. Losses of that carbon can lead to emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane. As well as direct gaseous emissions, organic matter can be transported from soils in water in
the form of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) or Total Organic Carbon (TOC) fractions* and can subsequently be oxidised to
carbon dioxide.
Our data shows that the concentration of organic carbon in many Scottish rivers has approximately doubled over the last
twenty years, with soils being the most likely source. This has implications for soil carbon budgets and greenhouse gas
emissions.
The increased loss of TOC to rivers is likely to be driven by a combination of climate change (increased temperature and
changing rainfall patterns) and recovery from acidification.
The more limited data available for lochs seems to show that the concentration of organic carbon has decreased in such
surface waters over the last five years.
Introduction
Changes in Scotlands climate will affect water quality in a number of ways. One possible impact of climate change is an
increase in organic carbon in water caused by an increased breakdown of soil organic matter to water soluble material, due in
turn to warmer temperatures and drier summers which lower water tables and increase run-off during severe storm events.
Increases in water based organic carbon have been documented at a number of UK sites (Evans et al 2005, Worrall et al
2004) although there may be decreasing trends at a few sites (Worrall and Burt 2007). Despite the high carbon content of
Scotlands soils, information is limited on trends in organic carbon in surface water in Scotland.
Carbon lost from soils to water may be oxidised to produce carbon dioxide providing a positive feedback to climate
change. Scotland has large stocks of organic carbon held in peaty and organic soils, estimated at 2735 metric megatons
(MtC) in total (ECOSSE Report 2007). If converted to carbon dioxide that is equal to 174 years of human emissions at
current rates.
Soil organic matter affects several other soil properties including water holding capacity and ability to retain pollutants
and nutrients. Loss of soil organic matter could increase run-off which in turn increases flood risk and pollutant content in
water. Therefore it is important to understand any trends in organic carbon concentration in Scottish rivers.
As well as affecting the environment, organic carbon compounds in water can form carcinogenic trihalomethanes during
water treatment processes, so increasing organic carbon in water may cause additional costs for water treatment works.
Recovery from acidification and changes in land management and use have been suggested as causes of increased organic
carbon leaching from soils (Evans et al 2005, Worrall et al 2004) in addition to the climate related drivers of increasing
temperature and changes in rainfall patterns. In mountainous areas, reduction in snow coverage may increase temperature
and aeration in soils leading to increased biotic activity and hence organic carbon production and turnover. A combination
of pressures is likely responsible for the observed changes in water based organic carbon concentrations.
The aim of this work was to identify SEPA sites with long term data on organic carbon concentrations and to examine this
data for trends.
* Published research generally refers to Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) rather than Total Organic Carbon (TOC). DOC comprises just that fraction of aqueous organic carbon which passes
through a filter, whereas TOC includes particulate and purgeable organic carbon. Historically SEPA has generally monitored TOC in rivers and DOC in lochs. When rivers contain little
suspended solid material DOC and TOC values are likely to be similar, but when sediment loadings are high, for example in high flows, TOC values will be higher than DOC as TOC
measurements include organic material bound to sediments.
Trends in TOC concentration in rivers
SEPA holds longterm (greater than 10 years) TOC data for 58 river sites (Figure 1) mainly rural catchments where inputs
from point source discharges such as sewage treatment works and industrial sites are unlikely to contribute significantly to
TOC loading. Although these sites do not give full geographical coverage of Scotland they do include many of the areas
with the highest soil carbon concentrations. Recent expansion of SEPAs monitoring network means that TOC was
monitored at 490 river sites in 2008, which will improve geographical coverage in future.
The Seasonal Kendall trend test

showed with very high confidence

that 39 of 58 river sites with long term TOC data have

significant upward trends in TOC concentration over the full time period for which data exists. The sites with significant
trends in TOC concentration are shown in red in Figure 1. The remaining 19 sites (shown in blue in Figure 1) showed no
trend. Thirteen sites with shorter data sets also showed significant increasing trends in TOC. Although there were some
statistically significant changes in the data at some sites, they were small compared to the variability of the data and long
term increasing trends in TOC.
The rate of TOC increase averaged across all sites with increasing concentrations was 0.12 milligrams per litre per year
(mg/l/y), giving an increase in TOC concentration of nearly 2.5 mg/l over a twenty year period. That amounts to a doubling
of TOC concentration over twenty years at most of these sites. The rate of TOC increase ranged from 0.03 mg/l/y in the
Ythan upstream of Auchterlees to 0.543 mg/l/y in the Green Burn on Speyside downstream of Glenfarcas bioplant. An even
higher rate of increase in TOC concentration of 2.28 mg/l/y was seen in the Tarf Water, Dumfriesshire, although that was
based on only 6 years of data.
Decreases in TOC were only recorded at two sites: the Carron, which passes through an industrialised urban area of Falkirk, and
the Forth at Craigforth in Stirling, which also has urban areas in its catchment. These sites are both likely to have experienced
direct human influence from urban and industrial development on TOC inputs as well as changes related to indirect effects
such as climate change and acidification recovery. Both sites with decreasing TOC trends had less than 10 years of data.
All the sites with long term data that showed increasing TOC were
south of the Cromaty Firth, while 11 of the 18 long term sites which
did not show a trend were north of Inverness. This latitudinal
pattern could be linked to a gradient in the recovery from acid
deposition as the impacts of acidification were greater further
south, or to climatic factors: temperature increases have been
greater in southern Scotland (Barnett et al 2006) while higher
rainfall in northern Scotland may maintain a high water table in
northern soils even during drier spells, plus TOC is only produced in
aerobic soil. Topography may also have an influence on rainfall and
run-off characteristics. Another possibility is that proportionally
small changes in TOC concentrations in northern Scotland are
masked by natural fluctuations in the higher background levels.
Mean TOC concentrations at the northern sites over the monitoring
period were 715 mg/l compared to 17 mg/l further south.
Most of the sites with increasing TOC were in the east of Scotland,
which reflects the distribution of sites sampled, but may also reflect
different changes in rainfall patterns between eastern and western
Scotland (Barnett et al 2006).
At eight sites there was very high confidence that TOC
concentration displayed a seasonal pattern, with highest
concentrations occurring in late summer and autumn. This could
reflect reduced dilution of TOC in low summer flows, or increases in
inputs caused by higher temperatures and lower water tables.
Figure 1: Changes in TOC concentration in rivers with long
term data.

The Seasonal Kendall test is a statistical test to detect trends in data after the effect of any season cycles has been removed.

Very high confidence means at least a 9 out of ten chance of being correct. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties. 2005
As well as increasing mean concentration, the square root of adjacent pairs test has shown increasing variability of the
data at some sites due to larger peak concentrations. These sites are clustered around and to the east of the Cairngorm
mountains (Figure 2) and may reflect changing rainfall patterns in this area which has experienced drier winters and
wetter autumns (Figure 3) or, in higher areas, reflect reductions in percolation of melting snow pack during the summer.
For sites where a long term trend in TOC was observed, the rate of increase in TOC concentration is significantly correlated
with the mean TOC concentration over the measurement period (Figure 4). This suggests that south of Inverness TOC
increase was proportional to the background TOC concentration at the site. Background TOC concentration depends on a
number of factors including the amount of soil organic carbon as well as catchment area (Aitkenhead-Peterson et al
2007). However this correlation does not extend to northern Scotland where rivers with high TOC concentrations do not
show any increasing trends.
Where increasing trends are evident these were seen from the
start of the measurement period which was in the early to mid
1980s in many cases. This is before significant reductions in
acid or sulphate inputs occurred, and in any case the effects of
this recovery on soil chemistry would be expected to be slow.
This suggests that while recovery from acidification may have
some influence on TOC increases, it is not the only driver.
TOC concentration increased with flow at 45 sites, perhaps
because at those sites rainfall infiltration helps to transport
organic matter from soil. Sites which did not show this
correlation were mainly in Dumfriesshire and north of the Great
Glen, which suggests that in these areas other factors such as
acidification or TOC production in soil may be the main drivers
of TOC release. Alternatively sites in drier locations in eastern
Scotland may be more sensitive to erosion and flushing of
organic matter linked to more extreme weather events.
Although TOC and DOC are different measures of aquatic organic matter, in most flows particulate levels in rivers are likely
to be low and so TOC will be made up mainly of dissolved material. However it is possible that if sediment loading in rivers
has increased it may have contributed to an increase in TOC. SEPA does not hold long term data on DOC in rivers.
Since 2002 there have been significant decreases in TOC at a few sites: the Shiel, Beauly, Ness, Ewe and Allt Darrie. All five
of these sites showed increasing or no trends over longer periods. TOC decreases are only seen at a few sites over a
relatively short period and so it is not clear whether they are driven by climate-related factors or changes in
environmental management such as improvements to sewage treatment works, changes in forestry practices or other land
use change. Since 2002 TOC concentration has increased at one site: the Ythan downstream of Fyvie. No trend in TOC since
2002 was found at 21 sites. The remaining sites did not have enough data to assess trends over this period.
Figure 2: Sites showing significant increases in TOC concentration variability.
Figure 3: Patterns of Precipitation Change (%) 19612004
(Taken from Barnett et al 2006).
Figure 4: Rate of TOC increase against mean TOC concentration for
sites with increasing TOC.
Trends in TOC loading in rivers
To find out whether the higher TOC concentrations observed are due to higher input of organic material or simply reduced
dilution in lower flows, TOC loadings were calculated using measured flows where available, or otherwise modelled flows.
The pattern of trends in TOC concentration (Figure 1) and TOC loading (Figure 5) were very similar. There was very high
confidence that TOC loadings showed increasing trends at 35 of the 61 sites for which flow data was available. The
increasing trends in TOC loadings suggest that increases in TOC concentration are driven largely by increasing inputs rather
than reducing flow.
As with concentration there was very high confidence that some
sites showed increasing variability over time, and again these sites
were predominantly located in the north-east. There was not an
exact match between sites showing increases in TOC concentration
and those showing increases in TOC loading. Sites showing
increases in concentration but not loading may be more affected
by decreasing flow, whereas at those showing increasing loading
but no trend in concentration the increased input may be balanced
by increasing flow.
The extra amount of TOC carried by a river depends on its flow, with
larger increases occurring in larger rivers. Rates of increase in TOC
loading ranged from 256 tonnes per year (t/y) for the Dee at
Milltimber to 1.8 t/y for the Ythan upstream of Auchterlees.
TOC loadings increased sharply with flow at all sites, which is
unsurprising given that TOC concentration was correlated with
flow at most sites, and this is multiplied by flow to calculate
loading.
It is difficult to estimate annual fluxes of TOC in a catchment
because the measurement frequency for TOC is low compared to the
variability of concentration and flow, but integrating the area under
the curve of spot loadings gives an estimated mean annual flux.
Estimated mean annual fluxes of two large catchments, the Dee
measured at Milltimber and the Findhorn at the A96 road bridge are
5,700 and 6,600 t/y respectively. Given these annual fluxes, the rate
of increase amounts to an approximate doubling over 20 years,
which is similar to the increased rate of TOC concentration.
Trends in DOC concentration in lochs
219 lochs were monitored for TOC and/or DOC (Figure 6) in 2008. In most cases only one of these parameters was
measured, so comparison of trends in DOC and TOC is not possible. In contrast to rivers, there was more data on DOC for
lochs than TOC: 91 sites had five or more years of DOC data while 30 sites had five of more years of TOC data. Few sites
had records for either parameter going back more than ten years.
Water samples from lochs are taken at the bank, and therefore for stratified lochs only reflect the water quality in the
topmost layer.
Decreasing trends in DOC concentration were found with very high confidence at 23 of the loch sites with five or more
years of data, and increases at two sites. There were no significant trends at the other sites with more than five years of
DOC data. TOC showed a decreasing trend at one of the sites with long term data, and no trend at the remaining sites. The
data on these trends is limited and therefore certainty about them is fairly low. Where no trends were detected it may be
because conditions have not changed or because there is not enough data to detect changes.
There are several factors that may explain why DOC concentration in lochs appears to be steady or declining, while in
rivers TOC is increasing. One may be the different length of record, but even when river data was restricted to the post-
2002 period few decreases in TOC were found. Possible reasons for DOC decreases in lochs include increasing water
temperature or increasing pH which could be increasing the rate at which organic carbon in lochs is mineralised.
Alternatively changing climate may be affecting mixing process within lochs or there may be changes in loch ecology.
Figure 5: Changes in TOC loading in rivers.
Lochs showing decreases in DOC concentration tend to be close to
the west coast with another cluster in the Trossachs (Figure 6).
However, not all lochs close to the west coast show a trend in DOC,
and the two lochs exhibiting DOC increases are also located in the
west. The distribution of lochs showing DOC decreases could be
linked to climatic factors such as wind, rain or marine salt input,
but the effect may also depend on characteristics of the loch such
as volume, depth or residence time. Further investigation would
help to explain this pattern. In the east and south of Scotland
organic carbon concentrations in lochs generally did not change.
The DOC decreases in lochs have happened over a relatively short
period and it is possible that they may not represent a true long
term trend. However decreases in DOC have also been recorded at
some other sites in the last few years (Worrall and Burt 2007).
Further monitoring is needed to find out whether the decreasing
DOC trends continue, and the potential causes. A better
understanding of the relationship between DOC and TOC would also
be useful.
Environmental impacts of increasing TOC run-off
Increasing TOC concentrations have a range of environmental
impacts. The most obvious of these is darkening of water colour
which reduces available light and energy, particularly in deeper
lakes. This is likely to impact flora in these waterbodies and possibly
the organisms that feed on it.
Loss of organic matter from soils will increase surface water run-
off, which in turn increases flood risk. Retention of pollutants may also be reduced, increasing their concentrations in the
receiving water.
Increasing TOC levels in water bodies stemming from soil organic matter losses may indicate changes in soil chemical and/or
microbial processes, and could suggest that exchange rates of carbon dioxide and methane between soils and the atmosphere
are also changing. This could further affect soil carbon stocks.
The loss of soil organic matter is also likely to reduce soil function by decreasing water and nutrient storage, leading to a
reduction in biodiversity and increasing soil erosion.
Future work
SEPAs ongoing monitoring programme will ensure fuller coverage of TOC trends across Scotland, although it will be a few
years before enough data is collected to detect trends at sites where monitoring began in 2007. Ongoing monitoring of DOC in
lochs will give a more complete dataset with which to assess long term trends.
It may be possible to extend the length of records and improve geographical coverage of long term data by correlating TOC or
DOC with other parameters such as Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) or water colour. Past COD or water colour measurements
could then be converted to TOC or DOC concentrations. That approach has been adopted successfully elsewhere (Worral and
Burt 2007).
To gain a better understanding of the relationship between TOC and DOC in rivers and lochs it would be beneficial to
monitor both parameters at selected sites for a few years.
A better understanding is needed of the factors affecting TOC and DOC production. Although SEPA is not well positioned to
research the processes involved, our monitoring data may be able to help identify which processes are important in the field.
A budget needs to be developed to assess carbon losses from Scottish soils, taking into account losses as aqueous organic
carbon and gaseous fluxes. Again SEPA may not be the best body to do this, but may hold data which could contribute to
this assessment. The environmental impacts of increasing TOC concentration in Scottish rivers have not yet been assessed,
but SEPA may hold data which enables some assessment of that to be made.
Figure 6: Trends in DOC/TOC in Lochs for sites with at least 5 years
of data.
References
Aitkenhead-Peterson JE, Smart RP, Aitkenhead MJ, Cresser MS, McDowell WH. Spatial and temporal variation of dissolved
organic carbon export from gauged and ungauged watersheds of Dee Valley, Scotland: Effect of land cover and C:N. Water
Resources Research 43. 2007.
Barnett C, Hossell J, Perry M, Procter C and Hughes G. A handbook of climate trends across Scotland. SNIFFER project
CC03, Scotland & Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research. 2006.
ECOSSE Estimating Carbon and Organic Soils Sequestration and Emissions. Scottish Executive. 2007.
Evans, CD, Monteith DT, Cooper DM. Long-term increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon: observations, possible
causes and environmental impacts. Environmental Pollution, 137 (1) 55 -71. 2005.
Gosling, R. Changes in flow variability in snow-influenced catchments in Scotland SEPA Factsheet, 2009.
Worrall F, Harriman R, Evans CD, Watts CD, Adamson J, Neal C et al. Trends in dissolved organic carbon in UK rivers and
lakes. Biogeochemistry 70 (3) 369 402. 2004.
Worrall F and Burt TP. Trends in DOC concentration in Great Britain. J. Hydrol, 346 81 92. 2007.