4th Down Spot

4th Down Conv %

Ave Punt Distance
Ave Ret Distance
Expected points for 4th down conversion attempt
Expected opponent points for decision to punt
Expected points favor the offense. Go for the 4th down conversion
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
80 #
37
49
20
-2.2
-2.7
Expected points favor the offense. Go for the 4th down conversion
Directions: (1) Enter the 4th down spot. You can enter
it in the box or use the slider. (2) Enter the expected
probability of a successful 4th down conversion. (3)
Enter the expected punt distance. (4) Enter the
expected punt return distance. The graphs will update
to show the field position. The top graph is the offense
field position on 4th down. (0 yard line is the goal
line). The bottom graph shows the expected opponent
field position after a punt and return. The expected
point values for attempting a 4th down conversion and
punting are shown below the second graph.
0 10
100