Probability 23

Probability
Introduction
The probability of a specified event is the chance or likelihood that it will occur. There are
several ways of viewing probability. One would be experimental in nature, where we
repeatedly conduct an experiment. uppose we flipped a coin over and over and over again
and it came up heads about half of the time! we would expect that in the future whenever we
flipped the coin it would turn up heads about half of the time. "hen a weather reporter says
#there is a $%& chance of rain tomorrow,' she is basing that on prior evidence! that out of all
days with similar weather patterns, it has rained on $ out of $% of those days.
(nother view would be subjective in nature, in other words an educated guess. )f someone
asked you the probability that the eattle *ariners would win their next baseball game, it
would be impossible to conduct an experiment where the same two teams played each other
repeatedly, each time with the same starting lineup and starting pitchers, each starting at the
same time of day on the same field under the precisely the same conditions. ince there are
so many variables to take into account, someone familiar with baseball and with the two
teams involved might make an educated guess that there is a +,& chance they will win the
game! that is, if the same two teams were to play each other repeatedly under identical
conditions, the *ariners would win about three out of every four games. -ut this is .ust a
guess, with no way to verify its accuracy, and depending upon how educated the educated
guesser is, a sub.ective probability may not be worth very much.
"e will return to the experimental and sub.ective probabilities from time to time, but in this
course we will mostly be concerned with theoretical probability, which is defined as follows/
uppose there is a situation with n e0ually likely possible outcomes and that m of those n
outcomes correspond to a particular event! then the probability of that event is defined
as
n
m
.
Basic Concepts
)f you roll a die, pick a card from deck of playing cards, or randomly select a person and
observe their hair color, we are executing an experiment or procedure. )n probability, we
look at the likelihood of different outcomes. "e begin with some terminology.
Events and Outcomes
The result of an experiment is called an outcome.
(n event is any particular outcome or group of outcomes.
( simple event is an event that cannot be broken down further
The sample space is the set of all possible simple events.
1xample $
22
)f we roll a standard 34sided die, describe the sample space and some simple events.
The sample space is the set of all possible simple events/ 5$,2,3,2,,,36
ome examples of simple events/
"e roll a $
"e roll a ,
ome compound events/
"e roll a number bigger than 2
"e roll an even number
Basic Probability
7iven that all outcomes are e0ually likely, we can compute the probability of an event
E using this formula/
outcomes likely 4 e0ually of number Total
1 event the to ing correspond outcomes of 8umber
9 : = E P
1xample 2
)f we roll a 34sided die, calculate
a9 P:rolling a $9
b9 P:rolling a number bigger than 29
;ecall that the sample space is 5$,2,3,2,,,36
a9 There is one outcome corresponding to #rolling a $', so the probability is
3
$
b9 There are two outcomes bigger than a 2, so the probability is
3
$
3
2
=
Probabilities are essentially fractions, and can be reduced to lower terms like fractions.
1xample 3
<et=s say you have a bag with 2% cherries, $2 sweet and 3 sour. )f you pick a cherry at
random, what is the probability that it will be sweet>
There are 2% possible cherries that could be picked, so the number of possible outcomes is
2%. Of these 2% possible outcomes, $2 are favorable :sweet9, so the probability that the cherry
will be sweet is
$%
+
2%
$2
=
.
There is one potential complication to this example, however. )t must be assumed that the
probability of picking any of the cherries is the same as the probability of picking any other.
This wouldn=t be true if :let us imagine9 the sweet cherries are smaller than the sour ones.
Two dice One die
Probability 2,
:The sour cherries would come to hand more readily when you sampled from the bag.9 <et us
keep in mind, therefore, that when we assess probabilities in terms of the ratio of favorable to
all potential cases, we rely heavily on the assumption of e0ual probability for all outcomes.
Try it Now 1
(t some random moment, you look at your clock and note the minutes reading.
a. "hat is probability the minutes reading is $,>
b. "hat is the probability the minutes reading is $, or less>
Cards
( standard deck of ,2 playing cards consists of four suits :hearts, spades, diamonds
and clubs9. pades and clubs are black while hearts and diamonds are red. 1ach suit
contains $3 cards, each of a different rank/ an (ce :which in many games functions as
both a low card and a high card9, cards numbered 2 through $%, a ?ack, a @ueen and a
Aing.
1xample 2
Bompute the probability of randomly drawing one card from a deck and getting an (ce.
There are ,2 cards in the deck and 2 (ces so
%+3C . %
$3
$
,2
2
9 : = = Ace P
"e can also think of probabilities as percents/ There is a +.3C& chance that a randomly
selected card will be an (ce.
8otice that the smallest possible probability is % D if there are no outcomes that correspond
with the event. The largest possible probability is $ D if all possible outcomes correspond
with the event.
Certain and mpossible events
(n impossible event has a probability of %.
( certain event has a probability of $.
The probability of any event must be
$ 9 : % E P
)n the course of this chapter, if you compute a probability and get an answer that is negative
or greater than 1, you have made a mistake and should check your work.
23
Working with Events
Complementary Events
8ow let us examine the probability that an event does not happen. (s in the previous section,
consider the situation of rolling a six4sided die and first compute the probability of rolling a
six/ the answer is P:six9 E$F3. 8ow consider the probability that we do not roll a six/ there
are , outcomes that are not a six, so the answer is P:not a six9 E
3
,
. 8otice that
$
3
3
3
,
3
$
9 six a not : 9 six : = = + = + P P
This is not a coincidence. Bonsider a generic situation with n possible outcomes and an
event E that corresponds to m of these outcomes. Then the remaining n 4 m outcomes
correspond to E not happening, thus
9 : $ $ 9 not : E P
n
m
n
m
n
n
n
m n
E P = = =

=
Complement o! an Event
The complement of an event is the event #E doesnGt happen'
The notation E is used for the complement of event E.
"e can compute the probability of the complement using ( )
$ : 9 P E P E =
8otice also that ( )
: 9 $ P E P E =
1xample ,
)f you pull a random card from a deck of playing cards, what is the probability it is not a
heart>
There are $3 hearts in the deck, so
2
$
,2
$3
9 heart : = = P
.
The probability of not drawing a heart is the complement/
2
3
2
$
$ 9 heart : $ 9 heart not : = = = P P
Probability of two independent events
1xample 3
uppose we flipped a coin and rolled a die, and wanted to know the probability of getting a
head on the coin and a 3 on the die.
"e could list all possible outcomes/ 5H$,H2,H3,H2,H,,H3,T$,T2,T3,T2,T,,T36.
8otice there are 2 I 3 E $2 total outcomes. Out of these, only $ is the desired outcome, so the
probability is
$2
$
.
Probability 2+
The prior example was looking at two independent events.
ndependent Events
1vents ( and - are independent events if the probability of 1vent - occurring is the
same whether or not 1vent ( occurs.
1xample +
(re these events independent>
a9 ( fair coin is tossed two times. The two events are :$9 first toss is a head and :29 second
toss is a head.
b9 The two events :$9 J)t will rain tomorrow in HoustonJ and :29 J)t will rain tomorrow in
7alveston' :a city near Houston9.
c9 Kou draw a card from a deck, then draw a second card without replacing the first.
a9 The probability that a head comes up on the second toss is $F2 regardless of whether or not
a head came up on the first toss, so these events are independent.
b9 These events are not independent because it is more likely that it will rain in 7alveston on
days it rains in Houston than on days it does not.
c9 The probability of the second card being red depends on whether the first card is red or
not, so these events are not independent.
"hen two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is the product of the
probabilities of the individual events.
P"A and B# !or independent events
)f events A and B are independent, then the probability of both A and B occurring is
P:A and B9 E P:A9 I P:B9
where P:A and B9 is the probability of events A and B both occurring, P:A9 is the
probability of event A occurring, and P:B9 is the probability of event B occurring
)f you look back at the coin and die example from earlier, you can see how the number of
outcomes of the first event multiplied by the number of outcomes in the second event
multiplied to e0ual the total number of possible outcomes in the combined event.
1xample L
2L
)n your drawer you have $% pairs of socks, 3 of which are white, and + tee shirts, 3 of which
are white. )f you randomly reach in and pull out a pair of socks and a tee shirt, what is the
probability both are white>
The probability of choosing a white pair of socks is
$%
3
.
The probability of choosing a white tee shirt is
+
3
.
The probability of both being white is
3,
C
+%
$L
+
3
$%
3
= =
Try it Now $
( card is pulled a deck of cards and noted. The card is then replaced, the deck is shuffled,
and a second card is removed and noted. "hat is the probability that both cards are (ces>
The previous examples looked at the probability of both events occurring. 8ow we will look
at the probability of either event occurring.
1xample C
uppose we flipped a coin and rolled a die, and wanted to know the probability of getting a
head on the coin or a 3 on the die.
Here, there are still $2 possible outcomes/ 5H$,H2,H3,H2,H,,H3,T$,T2,T3,T2,T,,T36
-y simply counting, we can see that + of the outcomes have a head on the coin or a 3 on the
die or both D we use or inclusively here :these + outcomes are H$, H2, H3, H2, H,, H3, T39,
so the probability is
$2
+
. How could we have found this from the individual probabilities>
(s we would expect,
2
$
of these outcomes have a head, and
3
$
of these outcomes have a 3
on the die. )f we add these,
$2
L
$2
2
$2
3
3
$
2
$
= + = +
, which is not the correct probability.
<ooking at the outcomes we can see why/ the outcome H3 would have been counted twice,
since it contains both a head and a 3! the probability of both a head and rolling a 3 is
$2
$
.
)f we subtract out this double count, we have the correct probability/
$2
+
$2
$
$2
L
=
.
P"A or B#
The probability of either A or B occurring :or both9 is
Probability 2C
P:A or B9 E P:A9 M P:B9 D P:A and B9
1xample $%
uppose we draw one card from a standard deck. "hat is the probability that we get a @ueen
or a Aing>
There are 2 @ueens and 2 Aings in the deck, hence L outcomes corresponding to a @ueen or
Aing out of ,2 possible outcomes. Thus the probability of drawing a @ueen or a Aing is/
,2
L
9 @ueen or Aing : = P
8ote that in this case, there are no cards that are both a @ueen and a Aing, so
% 9 @ueen and Aing : = P
. Nsing our probability rule, we could have said/
,2
L
%
,2
2
,2
2
9 @ueen and Aing : 9 @ueen : 9 Aing : 9 @ueen or Aing : = + = + = P P P P
)n the last example, the events were mutually exclusive, so P:A or B9 E P:A9 M P:B9.
1xample $$
uppose we draw one card from a standard deck. "hat is the probability that we get a red
card or a Aing>
Half the cards are red, so
,2
23
9 red : = P
There are four kings, so
,2
2
9 Aing : = P
There are two red kings, so
,2
2
9 Aing and ;ed : = P
"e can then calculate
,2
2L
,2
2
,2
2
,2
23
9 Aing and ;ed : 9 Aing : 9 ;ed : 9 Aing or ;ed : = + = + = P P P P
Try it Now %
)n your drawer you have $% pairs of socks, 3 of which are white, and + tee shirts, 3 of which
are white. )f you reach in and randomly grab a pair of socks and a tee shirt, what the
probability at least one is white>
1xample $2
3%
The table below shows the number of survey sub.ects who have received and not received a
speeding ticket in the last year, and the color of their car. Oind the probability that a
randomly chosen person/
a9 Has a red car and got a speeding ticket
b9 Has a red car or got a speeding ticket.
peeding
ticket
8o speeding
ticket
Total
;ed car $, $3, $,%
8ot red car 2, 2+% ,$,
Total 3% 3%, 33,
"e can see that $, people of the 33, surveyed had both a red car and got a speeding ticket,
so the probability is
%223 . %
33,
$,

.
8otice that having a red car and getting a speeding ticket are not independent events, so the
probability of both of them occurring is not simply the product of probabilities of each one
occurring.
"e could answer this 0uestion by simply adding up the numbers/ $, people with red cars
and speeding tickets M $3, with red cars but no ticket M 2, with a ticket but no red car E $C,
people. o the probability is
2C32 . %
33,
$C,

.
"e also could have found this probability by/
P:had a red car9 M P:got a speeding ticket9 D P:had a red car and got a speeding ticket9
E
33,
$C,
33,
$,
33,
3%
33,
$,%
= +
.
Conditional Probability
Often it is re0uired to compute the probability of an event given that another event has
occurred.
1xample $3
"hat is the probability that two cards drawn at random from a deck of playing cards will
both be aces>
)t might seem that you could use the formula for the probability of two independent events
and simply multiply
$3C
$
,2
2
,2
2
=
. This would be incorrect, however, because the two
events are not independent. )f the first card drawn is an ace, then the probability that the
second card is also an ace would be lower because there would only be three aces left in the
deck.
Probability 3$
Once the first card chosen is an ace, the probability that the second card chosen is also an ace
is called the conditional probability of drawing an ace. )n this case the JconditionJ is that
the first card is an ace. ymbolically, we write this as/
P:ace on second draw P an ace on the first draw9.
The vertical bar JPJ is read as Jgiven,J so the above expression is short for JThe probability
that an ace is drawn on the second draw given that an ace was drawn on the first draw.J "hat
is this probability> (fter an ace is drawn on the first draw, there are 3 aces out of ,$ total
cards left. This means that the conditional probability of drawing an ace after one ace has
already been drawn is
$+
$
,$
3
=
.
Thus, the probability of both cards being aces is
2 3 $2 $
,2 ,$ 23,2 22$
= =
.
Conditional Probability
The probability the event B occurs, given that event A has happened, is represented as
P:B P A9
This is read as #the probability of B given A'
1xample $2
Oind the probability that a die rolled shows a 3, given that a flipped coin shows a head.
These are two independent events, so the probability of the die rolling a 3 is
3
$
, regardless
of the result of the coin flip.
1xample $,
The table below shows the number of survey sub.ects who have received and not received a
speeding ticket in the last year, and the color of their car. Oind the probability that a
randomly chosen person/
a9 Has a speeding ticket given they have a red car
b9 Has a red car given they have a speeding ticket
peeding
ticket
8o speeding
ticket
Total
;ed car $, $3, $,%
8ot red car 2, 2+% ,$,
Total 3% 3%, 33,
a9 ince we know the person has a red car, we are only considering the $,% people in the first
row of the table. Of those, $, have a speeding ticket, so
P:ticket P red car9 E
$ . %
$%
$
$,%
$,
= =

32
b9 ince we know the person has a speeding ticket, we are only considering the 3% people in
the first column of the table. Of those, $, have a red car, so
P:red car P ticket9 E
2, . %
2
$
3%
$,
= =
.
8otice from the last example that P:- P (9 is not e0ual to P:( P -9.
These kinds of conditional probabilities are what insurance companies use to determine your
insurance rates. They look at the conditional probability of you having accident, given your
age, your car, your car color, your driving history, etc., and price your policy based on that
likelihood.
Conditional Probability &ormula
)f 1vents A and B are not independent, then
P:A and B9 E P:A9 I P:B P A9
1xample $3
)f you pull 2 cards out of a deck, what is the probability that both are spades>
The probability that the first card is a spade is
,2
$3
.
The probability that the second card is a spade, given the first was a spade, is
,$
$2
, since
there is one less spade in the deck, and one less total cards.
The probability that both cards are spades is
%,LL . %
23,2
$,3
,$
$2
,2
$3
=
1xample $+
)f you draw two cards from a deck, what is the probability that you will get the (ce of
Qiamonds and a black card>
Kou can satisfy this condition by having Base ( or Base -, as follows/
Base (9 you can get the (ce of Qiamonds first and then a black card or
Base -9 you can get a black card first and then the (ce of Qiamonds.
<et=s calculate the probability of Base (. The probability that the first card is the (ce of
Qiamonds is
,2
$
. The probability that the second card is black given that the first card is the
(ce of Qiamonds is
,$
23
because 23 of the remaining ,$ cards are black. The probability is
therefore
$%2
$
,$
23
,2
$
=
.
Probability 33
8ow for Base -/ the probability that the first card is black is
2
$
,2
23
=
. The probability that
the second card is the (ce of Qiamonds given that the first card is black is
,$
$
. The
probability of Base - is therefore
$%2
$
,$
$
2
$
=
, the same as the probability of Base $.
;ecall that the probability of ( or - is P:(9 M P:-9 4 P:( and -9. )n this problem, P:( and
-9 E % since the first card cannot be the (ce of Qiamonds and be a black card. Therefore, the
probability of Base ( or Base - is
$%$
2
$%$
$
$%$
$
= +
. The probability that you will get the
(ce of Qiamonds and a black card when drawing two cards from a deck is
$%$
2
.
Try it Now '
)n your drawer you have $% pairs of socks, 3 of which are white. )f you reach in and
randomly grab two pairs of socks, what is the probability that both are white>
1xample $L
( home pregnancy test was given to women, then pregnancy was verified through blood
tests. The following table shows the home pregnancy test results. Oind
a9 P:not pregnant P positive test result9
b9 P:positive test result P not pregnant9
Positive
test
8egative test Total
Pregnant +% 2 +2
8ot Pregnant , $2 $C
Total +, $L C3
a9 ince we know the test result was positive, weGre limited to the +, women in the first
column, of which , were not pregnant. P:not pregnant P positive test result9 E
%3+ . %
+,
,

.
b9 ince we know the woman is not pregnant, we are limited to the $C women in the second
row, of which , had a positive test. P:positive test result P not pregnant9 E
233 . %
$C
,

The second result is what is usually called a false positive/ ( positive result when the woman
is not actually pregnant.
32
Bayes Theorem
)n this section we concentrate on the more complex conditional probability problems we
began looking at in the last section.
1xample $C
uppose a certain disease has an incidence rate of %.$& :that is, it afflicts %.$& of the
population9. ( test has been devised to detect this disease. The test does not produce false
negatives :that is, anyone who has the disease will test positive for it9, but the false positive
rate is ,& :that is, about ,& of people who take the test will test positive, even though they
do not have the disease9. uppose a randomly selected person takes the test and tests
positive. "hat is the probability that this person actually has the disease>
There are two ways to approach the solution to this problem. One involves an important
result in probability theory called -ayes= theorem. "e will discuss this theorem a bit later,
but for now we will use an alternative and, we hope, much more intuitive approach.
<et=s break down the information in the problem piece by piece.
Suppose a certain disease has an incidence rate of 01! "that is, it afflicts 01! of the
population# The percentage %.$& can be converted to a decimal number by moving the
decimal place two places to the left, to get %.%%$. )n turn, %.%%$ can be rewritten as a
fraction/ $F$%%%. This tells us that about $ in every $%%% people has the disease. :)f we
wanted we could write P:disease9E%.%%$.9
A test has been devised to detect this disease $he test does not produce false negatives "that
is, anyone who has the disease will test positive for it# This part is fairly straightforward/
everyone who has the disease will test positive, or alternatively everyone who tests negative
does not have the disease. :"e could also say P:positive P disease9E$.9
$he false positive rate is %! "that is, about %! of people who take the test will test positive,
even though they do not have the disease# This is even more straightforward. (nother way
of looking at it is that of every $%% people who are tested and do not have the disease, , will
test positive even though they do not have the disease. :"e could also say that P:positive P
no disease9E%.%,.9
Suppose a randomly selected person takes the test and tests positive &hat is the probability
that this person actually has the disease' Here we want to compute P:diseasePpositive9. "e
already know that P:positivePdisease9E$, but remember that conditional probabilities are not
e0ual if the conditions are switched.
;ather than thinking in terms of all these probabilities we have developed, let=s create a
hypothetical situation and apply the facts as set out above. Oirst, suppose we randomly select
$%%% people and administer the test. How many do we expect to have the disease> ince
about $F$%%% of all people are afflicted with the disease, $F$%%% of $%%% people is $. :8ow
you know why we chose $%%%.9 Only $ of $%%% test sub.ects actually has the disease! the
other CCC do not.
Probability 3,
"e also know that ,& of all people who do not have the disease will test positive. There are
CCC disease4free people, so we would expect :%.%,9:CCC9E2C.C, :so, about ,%9 people to test
positive who do not have the disease.
8ow back to the original 0uestion, computing P:diseasePpositive9. There are ,$ people who
test positive in our example :the one unfortunate person who actually has the disease, plus
the ,% people who tested positive but don=t9. Only one of these people has the disease, so
P:disease P positive9
%$C3 . %
,$
$

or less than 2&. Qoes this surprise you> This means that of all people who test positive,
over CL& do not have the disease.
The answer we got was slightly approximate, since we rounded 2C.C, to ,%. "e could redo
the problem with $%%,%%% test sub.ects, $%% of whom would have the disease and :%.%,9
:CC,C%%9E2CC, test positive but do not have the disease, so the exact probability of having the
disease if you test positive is
P:disease P positive9
%$C3 . %
,%C,
$%%

which is pretty much the same answer.
-ut back to the surprising result. (f all people who test positive, over )*! do not have the
disease )f your guess for the probability a person who tests positive has the disease was
wildly different from the right answer :2&9, don=t feel bad. The exact same problem was
posed to doctors and medical students at the Harvard *edical chool 2, years ago and the
results revealed in a $C+L +ew England ,ournal of -edicine article. Only about $L& of the
participants got the right answer. *ost of the rest thought the answer was closer to C,&
:perhaps they were misled by the false positive rate of ,&9.
o at least you should feel a little better that a bunch of doctors didn=t get the right answer
either :assuming you thought the answer was much higher9. -ut the significance of this
finding and similar results from other studies in the intervening years lies not in making math
students feel better but in the possibly catastrophic conse0uences it might have for patient
care. )f a doctor thinks the chances that a positive test result nearly guarantees that a patient
has a disease, they might begin an unnecessary and possibly harmful treatment regimen on a
healthy patient. Or worse, as in the early days of the ()Q crisis when being H)R4positive
was often e0uated with a death sentence, the patient might take a drastic action and commit
suicide.
(s we have seen in this hypothetical example, the most responsible course of action for
treating a patient who tests positive would be to counsel the patient that they most likely do
not have the disease and to order further, more reliable, tests to verify the diagnosis.
One of the reasons that the doctors and medical students in the study did so poorly is that
such problems, when presented in the types of statistics courses that medical students often
take, are solved by use of -ayes= theorem, which is stated as follows/
Bayes( Theorem
33
9 P : 9 : 9 P : 9 :
9 P : 9 :
9 P :
A B P A P A B P A P
A B P A P
B A P
+
=
)n our earlier example, this translates to
9 disease no P positive : 9 disease no : 9 disease P positive : 9 disease :
9 disease P positive : 9 disease :
9 positive P disease :
P P P P
P P
P
+
=
Plugging in the numbers gives
%$C3 . %
9 %, . % 9: CCC . % : 9 $ 9: %%$ . % :
9 $ 9: %%$ . % :
9 positive P disease :
+
= P
which is exactly the same answer as our original solution.
The problem is that you :or the typical medical student, or even the typical math professor9
are much more likely to be able to remember the original solution than to remember -ayes=
theorem. Psychologists, such as 7erd 7igerenSer, author of .alculated /isks0 1ow to 2now
&hen +umbers 3eceive 4ou, have advocated that the method involved in the original
solution :which 7igerenSer calls the method of Jnatural fre0uenciesJ9 be employed in place
of -ayes= Theorem. 7igerenSer performed a study and found that those educated in the
natural fre0uency method were able to recall it far longer than those who were taught -ayes=
theorem. "hen one considers the possible life4and4death conse0uences associated with such
calculations it seems wise to heed his advice.
1xample 2%
( certain disease has an incidence rate of 2&. )f the false negative rate is $%& and the false
positive rate is $&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the
disease.
)magine $%,%%% people who are tested. Of these $%,%%%, 2%% will have the disease! $%& of
them, or 2%, will test negative and the remaining $L% will test positive. Of the CL%% who do
not have the disease, CL will test positive. o of the 2+L total people who test positive, $L%
will have the disease. Thus
32+ . %
2+L
$L%
9 positive P disease : = P
so about 3,& of the people who test positive will have the disease.
Nsing -ayes theorem directly would give the same result/
32+ . %
%2+L . %
%$L . %
9 %$ . % 9: CL . % : 9 C% . % 9: %2 . % :
9 C% . % 9: %2 . % :
9 positive P disease : =
+
= P
Try it Now )
Probability 3+
( certain disease has an incidence rate of %.,&. )f there are no false negatives and if the false
positive rate is 3&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the
disease.
Counting
Bounting> Kou already know how to count or you wouldn=t be taking a college4level math
class, right> "ell yes, but what we=ll really be investigating here are ways of counting
efficiently. "hen we get to the probability situations a bit later in this chapter we will need to
count some very large numbers, like the number of possible winning lottery tickets. One way
to do this would be to write down every possible set of numbers that might show up on a
lottery ticket, but believe me/ you don=t want to do this.
Basic Counting
"e will start, however, with some more reasonable sorts of counting problems in order to
develop the ideas that we will soon need.
1xample 2$
uppose at a particular restaurant you have three choices for an appetiSer :soup, salad or
breadsticks9 and five choices for a main course :hamburger, sandwich, 0uiche, fa.ita or
piSSa9. )f you are allowed to choose exactly one item from each category for your meal, how
many different meal options do you have>
*olution 1/ One way to solve this problem would be to systematically list each possible
meal/
soup M hamburger soup M sandwich soup M 0uiche
soup M fa.ita soup M piSSa salad M hamburger
salad M sandwich salad M 0uiche salad M fa.ita
salad M piSSa breadsticks M hamburger breadsticks M sandwich
breadsticks M 0uiche breadsticks M fa.ita breadsticks M piSSa
(ssuming that we did this systematically and that we neither missed any possibilities nor
listed any possibility more than once, the answer would be $,. Thus you could go to the
restaurant $, nights in a row and have a different meal each night.
*olution $/ (nother way to solve this problem would be to list all the possibilities in a table/
hambur+er sandwich ,uiche !ajita pi--a
soup soupMburger
salad saladMburger
bread etc
)n each of the cells in the table we could list the corresponding meal/ soup M hamburger in
the upper left corner, salad M hamburger below it, etc. -ut if we didn=t really care what the
possible meals are, only how many possible meals there are, we could .ust count the number
of cells and arrive at an answer of $,, which matches our answer from the first solution. :)t=s
always good when you solve a problem two different ways and get the same answerT9
3L
*olution %/ "e already have two perfectly good solutions. "hy do we need a third> The
first method was not very systematic, and we might easily have made an omission. The
second method was better, but suppose that in addition to the appetiSer and the main course
we further complicated the problem by adding desserts to the menu/ we=ve used the rows of
the table for the appetiSers and the columns for the main coursesUwhere will the desserts
go> "e would need a third dimension, and since drawing 34Q tables on a 24Q page or
computer screen isn=t terribly easy, we need a better way in case we have three categories to
choose form instead of .ust two.
o, back to the problem in the example. "hat else can we do> <et=s draw a tree dia+ram/
This is called a JtreeJ diagram because at each stage we branch out, like the branches on a
tree. )n this case, we first drew five branches :one for each main course9 and then for each of
those branches we drew three more branches :one for each appetiSer9. "e count the number
of branches at the final level and get :surprise, surpriseT9 $,.
)f we wanted, we could instead draw three branches at the first stage for the three appetiSers
and then five branches :one for each main course9 branching out of each of those three
branches.
OA, so now we know how to count possibilities using tables and tree diagrams. These
methods will continue to be useful in certain cases, but imagine a game where you have two
decks of cards :with ,2 cards in each deck9 and you select one card from each deck. "ould
you really want to draw a table or tree diagram to determine the number of outcomes of this
game>
<et=s go back to the previous example that involved selecting a meal from three appetiSers
and five main courses, and look at the second solution that used a table. 8otice that one way
to count the number of possible meals is simply to number each of the appropriate cells in the
Probability 3C
table, as we have done above. -ut another way to count the number of cells in the table
would be multiply the number of rows :39 by the number of columns :,9 to get $,. 8otice
that we could have arrived at the same result without making a table at all by simply
multiplying the number of choices for the appetiSer :39 by the number of choices for the main
course :,9. "e generaliSe this techni0ue as the basic counting rule/
Basic Countin+ .ule
)f we are asked to choose one item from each of two separate categories where there
are m items in the first category and n items in the second category, then the total
number of available choices is m / n.
This is sometimes called the multiplication rule for probabilities.
1xample 22
There are 2$ novels and $L volumes of poetry on a reading list for a college 1nglish course.
How many different ways can a student select one novel and one volume of poetry to read
during the 0uarter>
There are 2$ choices from the first category and $L for the second, so there are 2$ / $L E 3+L
possibilities.
The -asic Bounting ;ule can be extended when there are more than two categories by
applying it repeatedly, as we see in the next example.
1xample 23
uppose at a particular restaurant you have three choices for an appetiSer :soup, salad or
breadsticks9, five choices for a main course :hamburger, sandwich, 0uiche, fa.ita or pasta9
and two choices for dessert :pie or ice cream9. )f you are allowed to choose exactly one item
from each category for your meal, how many different meal options do you have>
There are 3 choices for an appetiSer, , for the main course and 2 for dessert, so there are
3 / , / 2 E 3% possibilities.
1xample 22
( 0uiS consists of 3 true4or4false 0uestions. )n how many ways can a student answer the
0uiS>
There are 3 0uestions. 1ach 0uestion has 2 possible answers :true or false9, so the 0uiS may
be answered in 2 / 2 / 2 E L different ways. ;ecall that another way to write 2 / 2 / 2 is 2
3
,
which is much more compact.
Try it Now 0
2%
uppose at a particular restaurant you have eight choices for an appetiSer, eleven choices for
a main course and five choices for dessert. )f you are allowed to choose exactly one item
from each category for your meal, how many different meal options do you have>
Permutations
)n this section we will develop an even faster way to solve some of the problems we have
already learned to solve by other means. <et=s start with a couple examples.
1xample 2,
How many different ways can the letters of the word *(TH be rearranged to form a four4
letter code word>
This problem is a bit different. )nstead of choosing one item from each of several different
categories, we are repeatedly choosing items from the same category :the category is/ the
letters of the word *(TH9 and each time we choose an item we do not replace it, so there is
one fewer choice at the next stage/ we have 2 choices for the first letter :say we choose (9,
then 3 choices for the second :*, T and H! say we choose H9, then 2 choices for the next
letter :* and T! say we choose *9 and only one choice at the last stage :T9. Thus there are 2
/ 3 / 2 / $ E 22 ways to spell a code worth with the letters *(TH.
)n this example, we needed to calculate n I :n D $9 I :n D 29 III 3 I 2 I $. This calculation shows
up often in mathematics, and is called the !actorial, and is notated nT
&actorial
nT E n I :n D $9 I :n D 29 III 3 I 2 I $
1xample 23
How many ways can five different door priSes be distributed among five people>
There are , choices of priSe for the first person, 2 choices for the second, and so on. The
number of ways the priSes can be distributed will be ,T E , / 2 / 3 / 2 / $ E $2% ways.
8ow we will consider some slightly different examples.
1xample 2+
( charity benefit is attended by 2, people and three gift certificates are given away as door
priSes/ one gift certificate is in the amount of V$%%, the second is worth V2, and the third is
worth V$%. (ssuming that no person receives more than one priSe, how many different ways
can the three gift certificates be awarded>
Probability 2$
Nsing the -asic Bounting ;ule, there are 2, choices for the person who receives the V$%%
certificate, 22 remaining choices for the V2, certificate and 23 choices for the V$% certificate,
so there are 2, / 22 / 23 E $3,L%% ways in which the priSes can be awarded.
1xample 2L
1ight sprinters have made it to the Olympic finals in the $%%4meter race. )n how many
different ways can the gold, silver and bronSe medals be awarded>
Nsing the -asic Bounting ;ule, there are L choices for the gold medal winner, + remaining
choices for the silver, and 3 for the bronSe, so there are L / + / 3 E 333 ways the three medals
can be awarded to the L runners.
8ote that in these preceding examples, the gift certificates and the Olympic medals were
awarded without replacement! that is, once we have chosen a winner of the first door priSe or
the gold medal, they are not eligible for the other priSes. Thus, at each succeeding stage of
the solution there is one fewer choice :2,, then 22, then 23 in the first example! L, then +,
then 3 in the second9. Bontrast this with the situation of a multiple choice test, where there
might be five possible answers U (, -, B, Q or 1 U for each 0uestion on the test.
8ote also that the order of selection was important in each example/ for the three door priSes,
being chosen first means that you receive substantially more money! in the Olympics
example, coming in first means that you get the gold medal instead of the silver or bronSe. )n
each case, if we had chosen the same three people in a different order there might have been
a different person who received the V$%% priSe, or a different goldmedalist. :Bontrast this
with the situation where we might draw three names out of a hat to each receive a V$% gift
certificate! in this case the order of selection is not important since each of the three people
receive the same priSe. ituations where the order is not important will be discussed in the
next section.9
"e can generaliSe the situation in the two examples above to any problem without
replacement where the order of selection is important. )f we are arranging in order r items
out of n possibilities :instead of 3 out of 2, or 3 out of L as in the previous examples9, the
number of possible arrangements will be given by
n I :n D $9 I :n D 29 III :n D r M $9
)f you don=t see why :n r M $9 is the right number to use for the last factor, .ust think back
to the first example in this section, where we calculated 2, / 22 / 23 to get $3,L%%. )n this
case n E 2, and r E 3, so n r M $ E 2, 3 M $ E 23, which is exactly the right number for
the final factor.
8ow, why would we want to use this complicated formula when it=s actually easier to use the
-asic Bounting ;ule, as we did in the first two examples> "ell, we won=t actually use this
formula all that often, we only developed it so that we could attach a special notation and a
special definition to this situation where we are choosing r items out of n possibilities
without replacement and where the order of selection is important. )n this situation we write/
22
Permutations
nPr E n I :n D $9 I :n D 29 III :n D r M $9
"e say that there are nPr permutations of siSe r that may be selected from among n
choices without replacement when order matters.
)t turns out that we can express this result more simply using factorials.
9T :
T
r n
n
P
r n

=
)n practicality, we usually use technology rather than factorials or repeated multiplication to
compute permutations.
1xample 2C
) have nine paintings and have room to display only four of them at a time on my wall. How
many different ways could ) do this>
ince we are choosing 2 paintings out of C without replacement where the order of selection
is important there are CP2 E C I L I + I 3 E 3,%22 permutations.
1xample 3%
How many ways can a four4person executive committee :president, vice4president, secretary,
treasurer9 be selected from a $34member board of directors of a non4profit organiSation>
"e want to choose 2 people out of $3 without replacement and where the order of selection
is important. o the answer is $3P2 E $3 I $, I $2 I $3 E 23,3L%.
Try it Now 1
How many , character passwords can be made using the letters ( through W
a. if repeats are allowed
b. if no repeats are allowed
Combinations
)n the previous section we considered the situation where we chose r items out of n
possibilities without replacement and where the order of selection was important. "e now
consider a similar situation in which the order of selection is not important.
Probability 23
1xample 3$
( charity benefit is attended by 2, people at which three V,% gift certificates are given away
as door priSes. (ssuming no person receives more than one priSe, how many different ways
can the gift certificates be awarded>
Nsing the -asic Bounting ;ule, there are 2, choices for the first person, 22 remaining
choices for the second person and 23 for the third, so there are 2, I 22 I 23 E $3,L%% ways to
choose three people. uppose for a moment that (be is chosen first, -ea second and Bindy
third! this is one of the $3,L%% possible outcomes. (nother way to award the priSes would be
to choose (be first, Bindy second and -ea third! this is another of the $3,L%% possible
outcomes. -ut either way (be, -ea and Bindy each get V,%, so it doesn=t really matter the
order in which we select them. )n how many different orders can (be, -ea and Bindy be
selected> )t turns out there are 3/
(-B (B- -(B -B( B(- B-(
How can we be sure that we have counted them all> "e are really .ust choosing 3 people out
of 3, so there are 3 I 2 I $ E 3 ways to do this! we didn=t really need to list them all, we can
.ust use permutationsT
o, out of the $3,L%% ways to select 3 people out of 2,, six of them involve (be, -ea and
Bindy. The same argument works for any other group of three people :say (be, -ea and
Qavid or Orank, 7loria and Hildy9 so each three4person group is counted si5 times. Thus the
$3,L%% figure is six times too big. The number of distinct three4person groups will be
$3,L%%F3 E 23%%.
"e can generaliSe the situation in this example above to any problem of choosing a
collection of items without replacement where the order of selection is not important. )f we
are choosing r items out of n possibilities :instead of 3 out of 2, as in the previous
examples9, the number of possible choices will be given by
r r
r n
P
P
, and we could use this
formula for computation. However this situation arises so fre0uently that we attach a special
notation and a special definition to this situation where we are choosing r items out of n
possibilities without replacement where the order of selection is not important.
Combinations
r r
r n
r n
P
P
. =

"e say that there are n.r combinations of siSe r that may be selected from among n
choices without replacement where order doesn6t matter.
"e can also write the combinations formula in terms of factorials/
T 9T :
T
r r n
n
.
r n

=
22
1xample 32
( group of four students is to be chosen from a 3,4member class to represent the class on the
student council. How many ways can this be done>
ince we are choosing 2 people out of 3, without replacement where the order of selection is
not important there are
$ 2 3 2
32 33 32 3,
2 3,


= .
E ,2,33% combinations.
Try it Now 2
The Nnited tates enate (ppropriations Bommittee consists of 2C members! the Qefense
ubcommittee of the (ppropriations Bommittee consists of $C members. Qisregarding party
affiliation or any special seats on the ubcommittee, how many different $C4member
subcommittees may be chosen from among the 2C enators on the (ppropriations
Bommittee>
)n the preceding Try it 8ow problem we assumed that the $C members of the Qefense
ubcommittee were chosen without regard to party affiliation. )n reality this would never
happen/ if ;epublicans are in the ma.ority they would never let a ma.ority of Qemocrats sit
on :and thus control9 any subcommittee. :The same of course would be true if the Qemocrats
were in control.9 o let=s consider the problem again, in a slightly more complicated form/
1xample 33
The Nnited tates enate (ppropriations Bommittee consists of 2C members, $, ;epublicans
and $2 Qemocrats. The Qefense ubcommittee consists of $C members, $% ;epublicans and
C Qemocrats. How many different ways can the members of the Qefense ubcommittee be
chosen from among the 2C enators on the (ppropriations Bommittee>
)n this case we need to choose $% of the $, ;epublicans and C of the $2 Qemocrats. There
are $,.$% E 3%%3 ways to choose the $% ;epublicans and $2.C E 2%%2 ways to choose the C
Qemocrats. -ut now what> How do we finish the problem>
uppose we listed all of the possible $%4member ;epublican groups on 3%%3 slips of red
paper and all of the possible C4member Qemocratic groups on 2%%2 slips of blue paper. How
many ways can we choose one red slip and one blue slip> This is a .ob for the -asic
Bounting ;uleT "e are simply making one choice from the first category and one choice
from the second category, .ust like in the restaurant menu problems from earlier.
There must be 3%%3 I 2%%2 E 3,%$2,%%3 possible ways of selecting the members of the
Qefense ubcommittee.
Probability 2,
Probability using Permutations and Combinations
"e can use permutations and combinations to help us answer more complex probability
0uestions
1xample 32
( 2 digit P)8 number is selected. "hat is the probability that there are no repeated digits>
There are $% possible values for each digit of the P)8 :namely/ %, $, 2, 3, 2, ,, 3, +, L, C9, so
there are $% I $% I $% I $% E $%
2
E $%%%% total possible P)8 numbers.
To have no repeated digits, all four digits would have to be different, which is selecting
without replacement. "e could either compute $% I C I L I +, or notice that this is the same as
the permutation $%P2 E ,%2%.
The probability of no repeated digits is the number of 2 digit P)8 numbers with no repeated
digits divided by the total number of 2 digit P)8 numbers. This probability is
,%2 . %
$%%%%
,%2%
$%
2
2 $%
= =
P
1xample 3,
)n a certain state=s lottery, 2L balls numbered $ through 2L are placed in a machine and six of
them are drawn at random. )f the six numbers drawn match the numbers that a player had
chosen, the player wins V$,%%%,%%%. )n this lottery, the order the numbers are drawn in
doesnGt matter. Bompute the probability that you win the million4dollar priSe if you purchase
a single lottery ticket.
)n order to compute the probability, we need to count the total number of ways six numbers
can be drawn, and the number of ways the six numbers on the playerGs ticket could match the
six numbers drawn from the machine. ince there is no stipulation that the numbers be in any
particular order, the number of possible outcomes of the lottery drawing is 2L.3 E $2,2+$,,$2.
Of these possible outcomes, only one would match all six numbers on the playerGs ticket, so
the probability of winning the grand priSe is/
%%%%%%%L$, . %
$22+$,$2
$
3 2L
3 3
=
.
.
1xample 33
)n the state lottery from the previous example, if five of the six numbers drawn match the
numbers that a player has chosen, the player wins a second priSe of V$,%%%. Bompute the
probability that you win the second priSe if you purchase a single lottery ticket.
(s above, the number of possible outcomes of the lottery drawing is 2L.3 E $2,2+$,,$2. )n
order to win the second priSe, five of the six numbers on the ticket must match five of the six
winning numbers! in other words, we must have chosen five of the six winning numbers and
23
one of the 22 losing numbers. The number of ways to choose , out of the 3 winning numbers
is given by 3., E 3 and the number of ways to choose $ out of the 22 losing numbers is given
by 22.$ E 22. Thus the number of favorable outcomes is then given by the -asic Bounting
;ule/ 3., I 22.$ E 3 I 22 E 2,2. o the probability of winning the second priSe is.
( ) ( )
%%%%2%, . %
$22+$,$2
2,2
3 2L
$ 22 , 3
=
.
. .
Try it Now 3
( multiple4choice 0uestion on an economics 0uiS contains $% 0uestions with five possible
answers each. Bompute the probability of randomly guessing the answers and getting C
0uestions correct.
1xample 3+
Bompute the probability of randomly drawing five cards from a deck and getting exactly one
(ce.
)n many card games :such as poker9 the order in which the cards are drawn is not important
:since the player may rearrange the cards in his hand any way he chooses9! in the problems
that follow, we will assume that this is the case unless otherwise stated. Thus we use
combinations to compute the possible number of ,4card hands, ,2.,. This number will go in
the denominator of our probability formula, since it is the number of possible outcomes.
Oor the numerator, we need the number of ways to draw one (ce and four other cards :none
of them (ces9 from the deck. ince there are four (ces and we want exactly one of them,
there will be 2.$ ways to select one (ce! since there are 2L non4(ces and we want 2 of them,
there will be 2L.2 ways to select the four non4(ces. 8ow we use the -asic Bounting ;ule to
calculate that there will be 2.$ I 2L.2 ways to choose one ace and four non4(ces.
Putting this all together, we have
( ) ( )
2CC . %
2,CLC3%
++L32%
9 (ce one :
, ,2
2 2L $ 2
= =
.
. .
P
1xample 3L
Bompute the probability of randomly drawing five cards from a deck and getting exactly two
(ces.
The solution is similar to the previous example, except now we are choosing 2 (ces out of 2
and 3 non4(ces out of 2L! the denominator remains the same/
Probability 2+
( ) ( )
%3CC . %
2,CLC3%
$%3++3
9 (ces two :
, ,2
3 2L 2 2
= =
.
. .
P
)t is useful to note that these card problems are remarkably similar to the lottery problems
discussed earlier.
Try it Now 14
Bompute the probability of randomly drawing five cards from a deck of cards and getting
three (ces and two Aings.
Birthday Problem
<et=s take a pause to consider a famous problem in probability theory/
uppose you have a room full of 3% people. "hat is the probability that there is at
least one shared birthday>
Take a guess at the answer to the above problem. "as your guess fairly low, like around
$%&> That seems to be the intuitive answer :3%F33,, perhaps>9. <et=s see if we should listen
to our intuition. <et=s start with a simpler problem, however.
1xample 3C
uppose three people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared
birthday among these three people>
There are a lot of ways there could be at least one shared birthday. Oortunately there is an
easier way. "e ask ourselves #"hat is the alternative to having at least one shared
birthday>' )n this case, the alternative is that there are no shared birthdays. )n other words,
the alternative to #at least one' is having none. )n other words, since this is a complementary
event,
P:at least one9 E $ D P:none9
"e will start, then, by computing the probability that there is no shared birthday. <et=s
imagine that you are one of these three people. Kour birthday can be anything without
conflict, so there are 33, choices out of 33, for your birthday. "hat is the probability that
the second person does not share your birthday> There are 33, days in the year :let=s ignore
leap years9 and removing your birthday from contention, there are 332 choices that will
guarantee that you do not share a birthday with this person, so the probability that the second
person does not share your birthday is 332F33,. 8ow we move to the third person. "hat is
the probability that this third person does not have the same birthday as either you or the
second person> There are 333 days that will not duplicate your birthday or the second
person=s, so the probability that the third person does not share a birthday with the first two is
333F33,.
2L
"e want the second person not to share a birthday with you and the third person not to share
a birthday with the first two people, so we use the multiplication rule/
33, 332 333
:no shared birthday9 %.CC$L
33, 33, 33,
P =
and then subtract from $ to get
P:shared birthday9 E $ D P:no shared birthday9 E $ D %.CC$L E %.%%L2.
This is a pretty small number, so maybe it makes sense that the answer to our original
problem will be small. <et=s make our group a bit bigger.
1xample 2%
uppose five people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared
birthday among these five people>
Bontinuing the pattern of the previous example, the answer should be
33, 332 333 332 33$
:shared birthday9 $ %.%2+$
33, 33, 33, 33, 33,
P =
8ote that we could rewrite this more compactly as
33, ,
,
:shared birthday9 $ %.%2+$
33,
P
P =
which makes it a bit easier to type into a calculator or computer, and which suggests a nice
formula as we continue to expand the population of our group.
1xample 2$
uppose 3% people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared
birthday among these 3% people>
Here we can calculate
33, 3%
3%
:shared birthday9 $ %.+%3
33,
P
P =
which gives us the surprising result that when you are in a room with 3% people there is a
+%& chance that there will be at least one shared birthdayT
)f you like to bet, and if you can convince 3% people to reveal their birthdays, you might be
able to win some money by betting a friend that there will be at least two people with the
same birthday in the room anytime you are in a room of 3% or more people. :Of course, you
would need to make sure your friend hasn=t studied probabilityT9 Kou wouldn=t be guaranteed
to win, but you should win more than half the time.
Probability 2C
This is one of many results in probability theory that is counterintuitive! that is, it goes
against our gut instincts. )f you still don=t believe the math, you can carry out a simulation.
?ust so you won=t have to go around rounding up groups of 3% people, someone has kindly
developed a ?ava applet so that you can conduct a computer simulation. 7o to this web page/
http/FFwww4stat.stanford.eduFXsusanFsurpriseF-irthday.html, and once the applet has loaded,
select 3% birthdays and then keep clicking tart and ;eset. )f you keep track of the number
of times that there is a repeated birthday, you should get a repeated birthday about + out of
every $% times you run the simulation.
Try it Now 11
uppose $% people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared
birthday among these $% people>
Expected alue
1xpected value is perhaps the most useful probability concept we will discuss. )t has many
applications, from insurance policies to making financial decisions, and it=s one thing that the
casinos and government agencies that run gambling operations and lotteries hope most
people never learn about.
1xample 22
$
)n the casino game roulette, a wheel with 3L spaces :$L red, $L
black, and 2 green9 is spun. )n one possible bet, the player bets
V$ on a single number. )f that number is spun on the wheel, then
they receive V33 :their original V$ M V3,9. Otherwise, they lose
their V$. On average, how much money should a player expect to
win or lose if they play this game repeatedly>
uppose you bet V$ on each of the 3L spaces on the wheel, for a
total of V3L bet. "hen the winning number is spun, you are paid V33 on that number. "hile
you won on that one number, overall youGve lost V2. On a per4space basis, you have #won' 4
V2FV3L Y 4V%.%,3. )n other words, on average you lose ,.3 cents per space you bet on.
"e call this average gain or loss the expected value of playing roulette. 8otice that no one
ever loses exactly ,.3 cents/ most people :in fact, about 3+ out of every 3L9 lose V$ and a
very few people :about $ person out of every 3L9 gain V3, :the V33 they win minus the V$
they spent to play the game9.
There is another way to compute expected value without imagining what would happen if we
play every possible space. There are 3L possible outcomes when the wheel spins, so the
probability of winning is
3L
$
. The complement, the probability of losing, is
3L
3+
.
$
Photo BB4-K4( http/FFwww.flickr.comFphotosFstoneflowerF
,%
ummariSing these along with the values, we get this table/
Outcome Probability of outcome
V3,
3L
$
4V$
3L
3+
8otice that if we multiply each outcome by its corresponding probability we get
C2$$ . %
3L
$
3, V =
and
C+3+ . %
3L
3+
$ V =
, and if we add these numbers we get
%.C2$$ M :4%.C+3+9 Y 4%.%,3, which is the expected value we computed above.
Expected 5alue
Expected 5alue is the average gain or loss of an event if the procedure is repeated
many times.
"e can compute the expected value by multiplying each outcome by the probability of
that outcome, then adding up the products.
Try it Now 1$
Kou purchase a raffle ticket to help out a charity. The raffle ticket costs V,. The charity is
selling 2%%% tickets. One of them will be drawn and the person holding the ticket will be
given a priSe worth V2%%%. Bompute the expected value for this raffle.
1xample 23
)n a certain state=s lottery, 2L balls numbered $ through 2L are placed in a machine and six of
them are drawn at random. )f the six numbers drawn match the numbers that a player had
chosen, the player wins V$,%%%,%%%. )f they match , numbers, then win V$,%%%. )t costs V$
to buy a ticket. Oind the expected value.
1arlier, we calculated the probability of matching all 3 numbers and the probability of
matching , numbers/
%%%%%%%L$, . %
$22+$,$2
$
3 2L
3 3
=
.
.
for all 3 numbers,
( ) ( )
%%%%2%, . %
$22+$,$2
2,2
3 2L
$ 22 , 3
=
.
. .
for , numbers.
Our probabilities and outcome values are/
Probability ,$
Outcome Probability of outcome
VCCC,CCC
$22+$,$2
$
VCCC
$22+$,$2
2,2
4V$
$22+$,$2
$22+$2,C
$22+$,$2
2,3
$ =
The expected value, then is/
( ) ( ) ( ) LCL . % V
$22+$,$2
$22+$2,C
$ V
$22+$,$2
2,2
CCC V
$22+$,$2
$
CCC , CCC V + +
On average, one can expect to lose about C% cents on a lottery ticket. Of course, most players
will lose V$.
)n general, if the expected value of a game is negative, it is not a good idea to play the game,
since on average you will lose money. )t would be better to play a game with a positive
expected value :good luck trying to find oneT9, although keep in mind that even if the
average winnings are positive it could be the case that most people lose money and one very
fortunate individual wins a great deal of money. )f the expected value of a game is %, we call
it a !air +ame, since neither side has an advantage.
8ot surprisingly, the expected value for casino games is negative for the player, which is
positive for the casino. )t must be positive or they would go out of business. Players .ust
need to keep in mind that when they play a game repeatedly, their expected value is negative.
That is fine so long as you en.oy playing the game and think it is worth the cost. -ut it
would be wrong to expect to come out ahead.
Try it Now 1%
( friend offers to play a game, in which you roll 3 standard 34sided dice. )f all the dice roll
different values, you give him V$. )f any two dice match values, you get V2. "hat is the
expected value of this game> "ould you play>
1xpected value also has applications outside of gambling. 1xpected value is very common
in making insurance decisions.
1xample 22
,2
( 2%4year4old man in the N.. has a %.222& risk of dying during the next year
2
. (n
insurance company charges V2+, for a life4insurance policy that pays a V$%%,%%% death
benefit. "hat is the expected value for the person buying the insurance>
The probabilities and outcomes are
Outcome Probability of outcome
V$%%,%%% 4 V2+, E VCC,+2, %.%%222
4V2+, $ D %.%%222 E %.CC+,L
The expected value is :VCC,+2,9:%.%%2229 M :4V2+,9:%.CC+,L9 E 4V33.
8ot surprisingly, the expected value is negative! the insurance company can only afford to
offer policies if they, on average, make money on each policy. They can afford to pay out the
occasional benefit because they offer enough policies that those benefit payouts are balanced
by the rest of the insured people.
Oor people buying the insurance, there is a negative expected value, but there is a security
that comes from insurance that is worth that cost.
Try it Now 6nswers
$. There are 3% possible readings, from %% to ,C. a.
3%
$
b.
3%
$3
:counting %% through $,9
2. ince the second draw is made after replacing the first card, these events are independent.
The probability of an ace on each draw is
$3
$
,2
2
=
, so the probability of an (ce on both
draws is
$3C
$
$3
$
$3
$
=
3. P:white sock and white tee9 E
3,
C
+
3
$%
3
=
P:white sock or white tee9 E
3,
2+
3,
C
+
3
$%
3
= +
2. a.
3
$
C%
3%
C
,
$%
3
= =
,. Out of $%%,%%% people, ,%% would have the disease. Of those, all ,%% would test positive.
Of the CC,,%% without the disease, 2,CL, would falsely test positive and the other C3,,$,
would test negative.
2
(ccording to the estimator at http/FFwww.numericalexample.comFindex.php>viewEarticleZidEC$
Probability ,3
P:disease P positive9 E
32L,
,%%
2CL, ,%%
,%%
=
+
Y $2.3&
3. L I $$ I , E 22% menu combinations
+. There are 23 characters. a. 23
,
E $$,LL$,3+3. b. 23P, E 23I2,I22I23I22 E +,LC3,3%%
L. Order does not matter. 2CB$C E 2%,%3%,%$% possible subcommittees
C. There are ,
$%
E C,+3,,32, different ways the exam can be answered. There are C possible
locations for the one missed 0uestion, and in each of those locations there are 2 wrong
answers, so there are 33 ways the test could be answered with one wrong answer.
P:C answers correct9 E
$%
,
33
Y %.%%%%%3+ chance
$%.
( )( )
2,CLC3%
22
9 Aings two and (ces three :
, ,2
2 2 3 2
= =
.
. .
P
Y %.%%%%%C2
$$.
$%
$% 33,
33,
$ 9 birthday shared :
P
P = Y %.$$+
$2.
( ) ( )
2%%%
$CCC
, V
2%%%
$
CC, , 3 V +
Y 4V3.%%
$3. uppose you roll the first die. The probability the second will be different is
3
,
. The
probability that the third roll is different than the previous two is
3
2
, so the probability
that the three dice are different is
33
2%
3
2
3
,
=
. The probability that two dice will match is
the complement,
33
$3
33
2%
$ =
.
The expected value is/
( ) ( )
33
$2
33
2%
$ V
33
$3
2 V = +
Y V%.33. Kes, it is in your advantage to
play. On average, youGd win V%.33 per play.
,2
Exercises
$. ( ball is drawn randomly from a .ar that contains 3 red balls, 2 white balls, and , yellow
balls. Oind the probability of the given event.
a. ( red ball is drawn
b. ( white ball is drawn
2. uppose you write each letter of the alphabet on a different slip of paper and put the slips
into a hat. "hat is the probability of drawing one slip of paper from the hat at random
and getting/
a. ( consonant
b. ( vowel
3. ( group of people were asked if they had run a red light in the last year. $,% responded
JyesJ, and $L, responded JnoJ. Oind the probability that if a person is chosen at random,
they have run a red light in the last year.
2. )n a survey, 2%, people indicated they prefer cats, $3% indicated they prefer dots, and 2%
indicated they donGt en.oy either pet. Oind the probability that if a person is chosen at
random, they prefer cats.
,. Bompute the probability of tossing a six4sided die :with sides numbered $ through 39 and
getting a ,.
3. Bompute the probability of tossing a six4sided die and getting a +.
+. 7iving a test to a group of students, the grades and gender are summariSed below. )f one
student was chosen at random, find the probability that the student was female.
( - B Total
*ale L $L $3 3C
Oemale $% 2 $2 23
Total $L 22 2, 3,
L. The table below shows the number of credit cards owned by a group of individuals. )f
one person was chosen at random, find the probability that the person had no credit cards.
Wero One Two or more Total
*ale C , $C 33
Oemale $L $% 2% 2L
Total 2+ $, 3C L$
C. Bompute the probability of tossing a six4sided die and getting an even number.
$%. Bompute the probability of tossing a six4sided die and getting a number less than 3.
$$. )f you pick one card at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability it
will be a Aing>
Probability ,,
$2. )f you pick one card at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability it
will be a Qiamond>
$3. Bompute the probability of rolling a $24sided die and getting a number other than L.
$2. )f you pick one card at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability it is
not the (ce of pades>
$,. ;eferring to the grade table from 0uestion [+, what is the probability that a student
chosen at random did 8OT earn a B>
$3. ;eferring to the credit card table from 0uestion [L, what is the probability that a person
chosen at random has at least one credit card>
$+. ( six4sided die is rolled twice. "hat is the probability of showing a 3 on both rolls>
$L. ( fair coin is flipped twice. "hat is the probability of showing heads on both flips>
$C. ( die is rolled twice. "hat is the probability of showing a , on the first roll and an even
number on the second roll>
2%. uppose that 2$& of people own dogs. )f you pick two people at random, what is the
probability that they both own a dog>
2$. uppose a .ar contains $+ red marbles and 32 blue marbles. )f you reach in the .ar and
pull out 2 marbles at random, find the probability that both are red.
22. uppose you write each letter of the alphabet on a different slip of paper and put the slips
into a hat. )f you pull out two slips at random, find the probability that both are vowels.
23. -ert and 1rnie each have a well4shuffled standard deck of ,2 cards. They each draw one
card from their own deck. Bompute the probability that/
a. -ert and 1rnie both draw an (ce.
b. -ert draws an (ce but 1rnie does not.
c. neither -ert nor 1rnie draws an (ce.
d. -ert and 1rnie both draw a heart.
e. -ert gets a card that is not a ?ack and 1rnie draws a card that is not a heart.
22. -ert has a well4shuffled standard deck of ,2 cards, from which he draws one card! 1rnie
has a $24sided die, which he rolls at the same time -ert draws a card. Bompute the
probability that/
a. -ert gets a ?ack and 1rnie rolls a five.
b. -ert gets a heart and 1rnie rolls a number less than six.
c. -ert gets a face card :?ack, @ueen or Aing9 and 1rnie rolls an even number.
d. -ert gets a red card and 1rnie rolls a fifteen.
e. -ert gets a card that is not a ?ack and 1rnie rolls a number that is not twelve.
,3
2,. Bompute the probability of drawing a Aing from a deck of cards and then drawing a
@ueen.
23. Bompute the probability of drawing two spades from a deck of cards.
2+. ( math class consists of 2, students, $2 female and $$ male. Two students are selected at
random to participate in a probability experiment. Bompute the probability that
a. a male is selected, then a female.
b. a female is selected, then a male.
c. two males are selected.
d. two females are selected.
e. no males are selected.
2L. ( math class consists of 2, students, $2 female and $$ male. Three students are selected
at random to participate in a probability experiment. Bompute the probability that
a. a male is selected, then two females.
b. a female is selected, then two males.
c. two females are selected, then one male.
d. three males are selected.
e. three females are selected.
2C. 7iving a test to a group of students, the grades and gender are summariSed below. )f one
student was chosen at random, find the probability that the student was female and earned
an (.
( - B Total
*ale L $L $3 3C
Oemale $% 2 $2 23
Total $L 22 2, 3,
3%. The table below shows the number of credit cards owned by a group of individuals. )f
one person was chosen at random, find the probability that the person was male and had
two or more credit cards.
Wero One Two or more Total
*ale C , $C 33
Oemale $L $% 2% 2L
Total 2+ $, 3C L$
3$. ( .ar contains 3 red marbles numbered $ to 3 and L blue marbles numbered $ to L. (
marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Oind the probability the marble is red or odd4
numbered.
32. ( .ar contains 2 red marbles numbered $ to 2 and $% blue marbles numbered $ to $%. (
marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Oind the probability the marble is blue or even4
numbered.
33. ;eferring to the table from [2C, find the probability that a student chosen at random is
female or earned a -.
Probability ,+
32. ;eferring to the table from [3%, find the probability that a person chosen at random is
male or has no credit cards.
3,. Bompute the probability of drawing the Aing of hearts or a @ueen from a deck of cards.
33. Bompute the probability of drawing a Aing or a heart from a deck of cards.
3+. ( .ar contains , red marbles numbered $ to , and L blue marbles numbered $ to L. (
marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Oind the probability the marble is
a. 1ven4numbered given that the marble is red.
b. ;ed given that the marble is even4numbered.
3L. ( .ar contains 2 red marbles numbered $ to 2 and L blue marbles numbered $ to L. (
marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Oind the probability the marble is
a. Odd4numbered given that the marble is blue.
b. -lue given that the marble is odd4numbered.
3C. Bompute the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads, given that the previous flip
was tails.
2%. Oind the probability of rolling a #$' on a fair die, given that the last 3 rolls were all ones.
2$. uppose a math class contains 2, students, $2 females :three of whom speak Orench9 and
$$ males :two of whom speak Orench9. Bompute the probability that a randomly selected
student speaks Orench, given that the student is female.
22. uppose a math class contains 2, students, $2 females :three of whom speak Orench9 and
$$ males :two of whom speak Orench9. Bompute the probability that a randomly selected
student is male, given that the student speaks Orench.
23. ( certain virus infects one in every 2%% people. ( test used to detect the virus in a person
is positive C%& of the time if the person has the virus and $%& of the time if the person
does not have the virus. <et ( be the event Jthe person is infectedJ and - be the event
Jthe person tests positiveJ.
a. Oind the probability that a person has the virus given that they have tested
positive, i.e. find P:( P -9.
b. Oind the probability that a person does not have the virus given that they test
negative, i.e. find P:not ( P not -9.
22. ( certain virus infects one in every 2%%% people. ( test used to detect the virus in a
person is positive C3& of the time if the person has the virus and 2& of the time if the
person does not have the virus. <et ( be the event Jthe person is infectedJ and - be the
event Jthe person tests positiveJ.
a. Oind the probability that a person has the virus given that they have tested
positive, i.e. find P:( P -9.
b. Oind the probability that a person does not have the virus given that they test
negative, i.e. find P:not ( P not -9.
,L
2,. ( certain disease has an incidence rate of %.3&. )f the false negative rate is 3& and the
false positive rate is 2&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually
has the disease.
23. ( certain disease has an incidence rate of %.$&. )f the false negative rate is L& and the
false positive rate is 3&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually
has the disease.
2+. ( certain group of symptom4free women between the ages of 2% and ,% are randomly
selected to participate in mammography screening. The incidence rate of breast cancer
among such women is %.L&. The false negative rate for the mammogram is $%&. The
false positive rate is +&. )f a the mammogram results for a particular woman are positive
:indicating that she has breast cancer9, what is the probability that she actually has breast
cancer>
2L. (bout %.%$& of men with no known risk behavior are infected with H)R. The false
negative rate for the standard H)R test %.%$& and the false positive rate is also %.%$&. )f
a randomly selected man with no known risk behavior tests positive for H)R, what is the
probability that he is actually infected with H)R>
2C. ( boy owns 2 pairs of pants, 3 shirts, L ties, and 2 .ackets. How many different outfits can
he wear to school if he must wear one of each item>
,%. (t a restaurant you can choose from 3 appetiSers, L entrees, and 2 desserts. How many
different three4course meals can you have>
,$. How many three4letter JwordsJ can be made from 2 letters JO7H)J if
a. repetition of letters is allowed
b. repetition of letters is not allowed
,2. How many four4letter JwordsJ can be made from 3 letters J(1-"QPJ if
a. repetition of letters is allowed
b. repetition of letters is not allowed
,3. (ll of the license plates in a particular state feature three letters followed by three digits
:e.g. (-B $239. How many different license plate numbers are available to the state=s
Qepartment of *otor Rehicles>
,2. ( computer password must be eight characters long. How many passwords are possible
if only the 23 letters of the alphabet are allowed>
,,. ( pianist plans to play 2 pieces at a recital. )n how many ways can she arrange these
pieces in the program>
,3. )n how many ways can first, second, and third priSes be awarded in a contest with 2$%
contestants>
Probability ,C
,+. even Olympic sprinters are eligible to compete in the 2 x $%% m relay race for the N(
Olympic team. How many four4person relay teams can be selected from among the seven
athletes>
,L. ( computer user has downloaded 2, songs using an online file4sharing program and
wants to create a BQ4; with ten songs to use in his portable BQ player. )f the order that
the songs are placed on the BQ4; is important to him, how many different BQ4;s could
he make from the 2, songs available to him>
,C. )n western music, an octave is divided into $2 pitches. Oor the film .lose Encounters of
the $hird 2ind, director teven pielberg asked composer ?ohn "illiams to write a five4
note theme, which aliens would use to communicate with people on 1arth. Qisregarding
rhythm and octave changes, how many five4note themes are possible if no note is
repeated>
3%. )n the early twentieth century, proponents of the econd Riennese chool of musical
composition :including (rnold ch\nberg, (nton "ebern and (lban -erg9 devised the
twelve4tone techni0ue, which utiliSed a tone row consisting of all $2 pitches from the
chromatic scale in any order, but with not pitches repeated in the row. Qisregarding
rhythm and octave changes, how many tone rows are possible>
3$. )n how many ways can 2 piSSa toppings be chosen from $2 available toppings>
32. (t a baby shower $+ guests are in attendance and , of them are randomly selected to
receive a door priSe. )f all , priSes are identical, in how many ways can the priSes be
awarded>
33. )n the 3F,% lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to ,%. How many different
choices does the player have if order doesnGt matter>
32. )n a lottery daily game, a player picks three numbers from % to C. How many different
choices does the player have if order doesnGt matter>
3,. ( .ury pool consists of 2+ people. How many different ways can $$ people be chosen to
serve on a .ury and one additional person be chosen to serve as the .ury foreman>
33. The Nnited tates enate Bommittee on Bommerce, cience, and Transportation consists
of 23 members, $2 ;epublicans and $$ Qemocrats. The urface Transportation and
*erchant *arine ubcommittee consists of L ;epublicans and + Qemocrats. How many
ways can members of the ubcommittee be chosen from the Bommittee>
3+. Kou own $3 BQs. Kou want to randomly arrange , of them in a BQ rack. "hat is the
probability that the rack ends up in alphabetical order>
3L. ( .ury pool consists of 2+ people, $2 men and $3 women. Bompute the probability that a
randomly selected .ury of $2 people is all male.
3%
3C. )n a lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to 2L. )f , of the 3 numbers match
those drawn, they player wins second priSe. "hat is the probability of winning this
priSe>
+%. )n a lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to 2L. )f 2 of the 3 numbers match
those drawn, they player wins third priSe. "hat is the probability of winning this priSe>
+$. Bompute the probability that a ,4card poker hand is dealt to you that contains all hearts.
+2. Bompute the probability that a ,4card poker hand is dealt to you that contains four (ces.
+3. ( bag contains 3 gold marbles, 3 silver marbles, and 2L black marbles. omeone offers to
play this game/ Kou randomly select on marble from the bag. )f it is gold, you win V3. )f
it is silver, you win V2. )f it is black, you lose V$. "hat is your expected value if you
play this game>
+2. ( friend devises a game that is played by rolling a single six4sided die once. )f you roll a
3, he pays you V3! if you roll a ,, he pays you nothing! if you roll a number less than ,,
you pay him V$. Bompute the expected value for this game. hould you play this game>
+,. )n a lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to 23. )f the player matches all six
numbers, they win 3%,%%% dollars. Otherwise, they lose V$. Oind the expected value of
this game.
+3. ( game is played by picking two cards from a deck. )f they are the same value, then you
win V,, otherwise you lose V$. "hat is the expected value of this game>
++. ( company estimates that %.+& of their products will fail after the original warranty
period but within 2 years of the purchase, with a replacement cost of V3,%. )f they offer a
2 year extended warranty for V2L, what is the company=s expected value of each warranty
sold>
+L. (n insurance company estimates the probability of an earth0uake in the next year to be
%.%%$3. The average damage done by an earth0uake it estimates to be V3%,%%%. )f the
company offers earth0uake insurance for V$%%, what is their expected value of the
policy>
Probability 3$
Exploration
ome of these 0uestions were adapted from puSSles at mindyourdecisions.com.
+C. ( small college has been accused of gender bias in its admissions to graduate programs.
a. Out of ,%% men who applied, 2,, were accepted. Out of +%% women who
applied, 22% were accepted. Oind the acceptance rate for each gender. Qoes this
suggest bias>
b. The college then looked at each of the two departments with graduate programs,
and found the data below. Bompute the acceptance rate within each department
by gender. Qoes this suggest bias>
Qepartment
*en "omen
(pplied (dmitted (pplied (dmitted
Qept ( 2%% 22% $%% C%
Qept - $%% $, 3%% $,%
c. <ooking at our results from Parts a and b, what can you conclude> )s there
gender bias in this collegeGs admissions> )f so, in which direction>
L%. ( bet on #black' in ;oulette has a probability of $LF3L of winning. )f you win, you
double your money. Kou can bet anywhere from V$ to V$%% on each spin.
a. uppose you have V$%, and are going to play until you go broke or have V2%.
"hat is your best strategy for playing>
b. uppose you have V$%, and are going to play until you go broke or have V3%.
"hat is your best strategy for playing>
L$. Kour friend proposes a game/ Kou flip a coin. )f itGs heads, you win V$. )f itGs tails, you
lose V$. However, you are worried the coin might not be fair coin. How could you
change the game to make the game fair, without replacing the coin>
L2. Oifty people are in a line. The first person in the line to have a birthday matching
someone in front of them will win a priSe. Of course, this means the first person in the
line has no chance of winning. "hich person has the highest likelihood of winning>
L3. Three people put their names in a hat, then each draw a name, as part of a randomiSed
gift exchange. "hat is the probability that no one draws their own name> "hat about
with four people>
L2. How many different #words' can be formed by using all the letters of each of the
following words exactly once>
a. #(<)B1'
b. #(PP<1'
L,. How many different #words' can be formed by using all the letters of each of the
following words exactly once>
a. #T;N*P'
b. #T11T1;'
32
L3. The -onty 1all problem is named for the host of the game show 7et6s make a 3eal. )n
this game, there would be three doors, behind one of which there was a priSe. The
contestant was asked to choose one of the doors. *onty Hall would then open one of the
other doors to show there was no priSe there. The contestant was then asked if they
wanted to stay with their original door, or switch to the other unopened door. )s it better
to stay or switch, or does it matter>
L+. uppose you have two coins, where one is a fair coin, and the other coin comes up heads
+%& of the time. "hat is the probability you have the fair coin given each of the
following outcomes from a series of flips>
a. , Heads and % Tails
b. L Heads and 3 Tails
c. $% Heads and $% Tails
d. 3 Heads and L Tails
LL. uppose you have six coins, where five are fair coins, and one coin comes up heads L%&
of the time. "hat is the probability you have a fair coin given each of the following
outcomes from a series of flips>
a. , Heads and % Tails
b. L Heads and 3 Tails
c. $% Heads and $% Tails
d. 3 Heads and L Tails
LC. )n this problem, we will explore probabilities from a series of events.
a. )f you flip 2% coins, how many would you e5pect to come up #heads', on
average> "ould you expect every flip of 2% coins to come up with exactly that
many heads>
b. )f you were to flip 2% coins, what would you consider a #usual' result> (n
#unusual' result>
c. Olip 2% coins :or one coin 2% times9 and record how many come up #heads'.
;epeat this experiment C more times. Bollect the data from the entire class.
d. "hen flipping 2% coins, what is the theoretic probability of flipping 2% heads>
e. -ased on the classGs experimental data, what appears to be the probability of
flipping $% heads out of 2% coins>
f. The formula ( )
5 n 5
5 n
p p .

$ will compute the probability of an event with
probability p occurring 5 times out of n, such as flipping 5 heads out of n coins
where the probability of heads is p E ]. Nse this to compute the theoretic
probability of flipping $% heads out of 2% coins.
g. )f you were to flip 2% coins, based on the classGs experimental data, what range of
values would you consider a #usual' result> "hat is the combined probability of
these results> "hat would you consider an #unusual' result> "hat is the
combined probability of these results>
h. "eGll now consider a simplification of a case from the $C3%s. )n the area, about
23& of the .ury eligible population was black. )n the court case, there were $%%
men on the .uror panel, of which L were black. Qoes this provide evidence of
racial bias in .ury selection>