Global Technical Overview – Oman Stock Market

December 29, 2009

Global Tower Tel. + (965) 2295 1000 Website:

Sharq, Intersection of Shuhada Str. Fax. + (965) 2295 1005 www.globalinv.net
And Khalid Ibn Al-Waleed Str. P.O. Box: 28807 Safat, 13149 Kuwait
------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------------
Faisal Hasan, CFA Rasha Al-Huneidi Raed Diab
Head of Research Assistant Vice President Senior Financial Analyst
fhasan@global.com.kw huneidi@global.com.kw rdiab@global.com.kw
Phone No: (965) 2295-1270 Tel.
Phone+No:
(965)
(965)2295 1000
2295-1285 Phone No: (965) 2295-1296
Website:
Fax. + (965) 2295 1005 www.globalinv.net
P.O.
Technical Overview: Muscat Securities Box: 28807 Safat, 13149 Kuwait
Market
MSM 30 Index <.MSI> closed at 6,297.88 point. The Index made good on its bullish potential favors a bullish breakout
to the upside if closes above 6,310 point. The resistance area between 6,350 point – 6,420 point remains intact; however,
only above there will change the tone and confirm that it is on the way to 6,785 point, while closing below the support
level 6,170 point would undermine the constructive outlook and revert the bias to a negative sentiment once again. In
addition and by looking at the daily chart we can see a break above the bearish trend, which suggests that higher levels
could be seen on the near-term period. Weekly and daily “RSI” indicator are giving a positive signal.
Strategy: Speculators can hold with a stop-loss below 6,170 point. Medium-term (11 weeks) and long-term (50 weeks)
investors should enter when the Index closes above 6,310 point.
Weekly Q.MSI

EMA, Q.MSI, Last Trade(Last ), 11 Price

03/01/10, 6,293.793
OMR
EMA, Q.MSI, Last Trade(Last ), 50
03/01/10, 6,310.086 8,500
Cndl, Q.MSI, Last Trade 8,000
03/01/10, 6,179.680, 6,297.960, 6,174.860, 6,297.880
7,500

7,000
6,785
6,500
6,420
6,000
5,905
5,500

5,000

4,500
.123
Vol, Q.MSI, Last Trade
03/01/10, 28.006M Volume
100M
.1234
MACD, Q.MSI, Last Trade(Last ), 12, 26, 9, Exponent ial
03/01/10, 65.717, 116.922 Value
OMR

.123
RSI, Q.MSI, Last Trade(Last ), 14, Wilder Smoot hing
03/01/10, 52.415 Value
OMR
30
.123
02 16 07 21 04 18 01 22 22 05 19 03 17 07 21 05 19 02 16 06 20 04 18 01 22 06 20 03 17
Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10

Large Cap. Companies (Top 10) in Muscat Securities Market

Support Resistance Strategy Moving Average
Company Name Reuter' RIC Close (OR) Weekly RSI
1 2 1 2 Short Long 11 50
Oman Telecommunication OTL.OM 1.281 40.941 1.240 1.160 1.300 1.350 Bullish Neutral 1.300 1.410
Bank Muscat BMAO.OM 0.808 48.033 0.785 0.750 0.830 0.890 Bullish Neutral 0.830 0.870
Bank Dhofar BDOF.OM 0.728 70.052 0.700 0.680 0.755 0.810 Bullish Bullish 0.680 0.590
Raysut Cement RAYC.OM 1.496 43.954 1.470 1.360 1.550 1.600 Neutral Neutral 1.550 1.550
National Bank of oman NBO.OM 0.319 50.031 0.290 0.250 0.330 0.360 Bullish Bullish 0.315 0.345
Oman International Bank OIB.OM 0.291 46.969 0.275 0.250 0.300 0.325 Neutral Neutral 0.300 0.300
Oman Cement OCCO.OM 0.736 59.511 0.700 0.650 0.765 0.800 Bullish Bullish 0.730 0.640
Bank Sohar BKSB.OM 0.224 63.322 0.215 0.205 0.235 0.252 Neutral Bullish 0.215 0.190
Renaissance Services RSC.OM 0.738 64.552 0.700 0.650 0.760 0.795 Bullish Bullish 0.700 0.680
Galfar Engineering and Con. GECS.OM 0.574 44.577 0.540 0.490 0.610 0.690 Bullish Neutral 0.595 0.670

Disclaimer:
This Technical Analysis is not an invitation to buy or sell, as it is “Global’s” opinion and speculation of future movement of the stock. Also it is not
considered a sufficient material to relay on when taking financial and investment decisions. Investors should study the financial statement before
taking any investment decision.
 Global Technical Overview

Technical Overview: Shell Oman Marketing Co. <SHEL.OM> – Oman

Shell’s stock price has witnessed a noticeable increase since it hit its lowest level since October 2007 at OR1.450 on May
14 recording a high of OR2.200 on September 07 (highest since October 2008 and near the 76.4% level of the Fibonacci
retracements from OR2.400 – OR1.450) at OR1.176. The price has been moving within a range between OR2.100 –
1.950 since last October, and it seems to remain vulnerable to a correction until the price can exceed the resistance level
at OR2.100. However, breaking below the OR1.950 will trigger OR1.915 and OR1.825 (23.6% and 38.2% level,
respectively, of the Fibonacci retracements from OR1.450 – OR2.200). The “RSI” indicator is giving a negative signal.
Strategy: Stand aside at the moment. Medium-term (11 weeks) investors can enter only above OR2.050 while long-term
(50 weeks) investors who would like to hold should place a stop-loss below OR1.950.
Weekly QSHEL.OM

EMA, QSHEL.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 11 Price

03/01/10, 2.054
OMR
0.0% 2.2
EMA, QSHEL.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 50
03/01/10, 1.943
Cndl, QSHEL.OM, Last Trade 2.1 2.1
03/01/10, 2.045, 2.050, 2.010, 2.040
23.6% 2.023 2
1.95
38.2% 1.914 1.9

50.0% 1.825 1.8

61.8% 1.737
1.7

76.4% 1.627 1.6

1.5
100.0% 1.45 .123
Vol, QSHEL.OM, Last Trade
03/01/10, 30,440.0000 Volume
10M
.1234
MACD, QSHEL.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 12, 26, 9, Exponent ial
03/01/10, 0.052, 0.063 Value
OMR

.123
RSI, QSHEL.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 14, Wilder Smoot hing
03/01/10, 54.991 Value
OMR
30
.123
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Technical Overview: Renaissance Services Co. <RSC.OM> – Oman

RSC’s stock price continued to close above the support area between OR0.680 – OR0.650, at which we think it will
contain any downward attempt. The price faces a significant resistance level at OR0.760; therefore, if it managed to close
and stay above there, then the downward trend will be broken and will open a path towards much higher ground.
OR0.795 (38.2% level of Fibonacci retracement from OR1.578 - OR0.313) will be the next expected target, while above
there will promote OR0.945 on the long-term period; however, this move should be accomplished with increasing
market volume, while losing OR0.650 will lead to OR0.570. “RSI” indicator is looking bullish.
Strategy: Medium-term (11 weeks) and long-term (50 weeks) investors can hold with a stop-loss below OR0.700 and
OR0.680, respectively.
Weekly QRSC.OM

EMA, QRSC.OM,
76.4% 1.28 Last Trade(Last ), 11 Price
03/01/10, 0.705
OMR
EMA, QRSC.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 50
03/01/10, 0.688
61.8% 1.095
Cndl, QRSC.OM, Last Trade 1.1
03/01/10, 0.716, 0.760, 0.715, 0.747
1
50.0% 0.946
0.9

38.2% 0.796 0.8

0.76
0.7 0.68 0.7

23.6% 0.612 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.0% 0.313 .123

Vol, QRSC.OM, Last Trade
03/01/10, 1.964M Volume
5M
.1234
MACD, QRSC.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 12, 26, 9, Exponent ial
03/01/10, 0.020, 0.018 Value
OMR

.123
RSI, QRSC.OM, Last Trade(Last ), 14, Wilder Smoot hing
03/01/10, 64.552 Value
OMR
30
.123
21 05 19 02 16 07 21 04 18 01 22 22 05 19 03 17 07 21 05 19 02 16 06 20 04 18 01 22 06 20 03 17
Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Disclaimer:
This Technical Analysis is not an invitation to buy or sell, as it is “Global’s” opinion and speculation of future movement of the stock. Also it is not
considered a sufficient material to relay on when taking financial and investment decisions. Investors should study the financial statement before
taking any investment decision.