Regression

To be able to calculate the

regression line of y on x

To be able to interpret the

equation of the regression line
By the end of the lesson you should be able to answer this
regression exam question

The meaning of the regression line

Carbon percentages against melting point

y = -4.0476x + 36.214
40

Rather than draw a line

a best fit by eye you can
calculate and plot
accurately a line that
minimises the distance
between the data plotted
and the line.

35

30

Melting point

25

20

15

10

0
0

Carbon percentage

The vertical distance between the points and the line of best fit
are called residuals (red lines)
This is why the regression line is sometimes called the least
squares regression line
y = a + bx
a is the value of the melting point when carbon is 0%
b is the rate at which the melting point reduces as the carbon
percentage increases

The meaning of the regression line

Carbon percentages against melting point

y = -4.0476x + 36.214
40

35

30

25

Melting point

The y axis shows

the dependent (or
response) variable.
These variables are
determined by the x
values

20

15

10

0
0

Carbon percentage

The x axis shows

the independent (or
explanatory)
variable. It is set
independently of the
other variable

Important formulae
Sxx = x - (x)
n

Sxy = xy - xy
n

b = Sxy
Sxx
a = y - bx
Regression line equation
y = a + bx

Example
The results from an experiment in which different masses were
placed on a spring and the resulting length of the spring measured,
are shown below
Mass, x (kg)

20

40

60

80

100

Length, y (cm)

48

55.1

56.3

61.2

68

x = 300, x=22000, x = 60,

xy = 18238,
y = 16879.14, y = 288.6, y = 57.72
a) Calculate Sxx and Sxy
b) Calculate the regression line of y on x
c) Calculate the length of the spring when a mass of 50kg is
added
d) Calculate the length of the spring when a mass of 140kg is
added. Give a reason why this may or may not be a reliable
answer.

Mass, x (kg)

20

40

60

80

100

Length, y (cm)

48

55.1

56.3

61.2

68

x = 300, x=22000, x = 60,

xy = 18238,
y = 16879.14, y = 288.6, y = 57.72
a) Calculate Sxx and Sxy
Sxx = 22000 - 300 = 4000
5
Sxy = 18238 300x288.6 = 922
5
b) Calculate the regression line of y on x
b = Sxy = 922 = 0.2305
Sxx 4000
a = y bx
a = 57.72 0.2305 x 60 = 43.89
y = 43.89 + 0.2305x

c) Calculate the length of the spring when a mass of 50kg is

added
d) Calculate the length of the spring when a mass of 140kg is
added. Give a reason why this is or is not a reliable answer
y = 43.89 + 0.2305x
c) Y = 43.39 + 0.2305x50 = 54.915cm
d) Y = 43.39 + 0.2305 x 140 = 75.66cm
This may not a reliable answer as it has been calculated using
extrapolation. It could be unreliable140kg is outside the range
of data given and used to calculate the regression line.

Plenary

Can you now answer this

mathsnet exam question?