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Ngy 15.8.2013
BO CO NGNH
V c cu tiu th sn phm theo vng min th th trng min Bc chim t trng ln nht 41 46%, min
Nam 31 -33 %, min Trung chim t l thp nht 21 25%.
Bn cnh , do tnh cht ngnh xy dng c tnh ma v nn tiu th xi mng trong qu 2 v qu 4 l cao nht
(sau tt v ma kh min Nam). V vy nh hng rt ln n lng hng tn kho v doanh thu ca cng ty
xi mng.
Ngnh xi mng trong nhng nm gn y ang trong giai on rt kh khn, cung vt cu v vy mc cnh
tranh trong ngnh kh khc lit trong khi th trng bt ng sn li ng bng, nhiu d n phi dng hot
gin tip nn nhu cu tiu th xi mng cng st gim. Cc nh my ch hot ng cm chng, gi nguyn
liu u vo li cao, chi ph li vay ln do u t xy dng nh my xi mng kh tn km, nhiu doanh nghip
ng bn b vc ph sn nh XM ng Bnh, XM H Long, XM Quang Sn
Sn xut v tiu th 6 thng u nm 2013
6 thng u nm 2013, tnh hnh tiu th xi mng c nhng tn hiu kh lc quan, tng so vi cng k nm
ngoi. C th c nc tiu th 29.5 triu tn sn phm, trong tiu th ni a t 22.7 triu tn, xut khu
6.8 triu tn. Tiu th ni a gim 4% so vi cng k tuy nhin xut khu li tng 210%.
Tnh hnh tiu th trong nc kh khn nn nhiu doanh nghip xi mng y mnh tm kim th trng xut
khu. Th trng xut khu xi mng ch yu nh i Loan, Singapore, Indonesia, Campuchia vi gi xut
khu t 40-42 USD/tn. Gi xut khu ny vn thp hn gi xi mng bnh qun ca th gii khong 8-10
USD/tn.
Xut khu tng gip lng xi mng tn kho thng 6 gim so vi thng 5-2013, lng tn kho hin ch cn
khong 2.6 triu tn, ch yu l clinke.
Th trng xi mng c nhn nh c din bin tch cc hn so vi cng k nm ngoi. Tuy nhin, nhn mt
cch tng quan, nhng doanh nghip tiu th tt vn l cc thng hiu quen thuc nh VICEM, FICO, Nghi
Sn, Chinfon, Holcim, Cm Ph, trong khi nhiu n v khc vn gp rt nhiu kh khn.
BO CO NGNH
Chi ph vn chuyn li rt ln, v vy gi xi mng min Nam bao gi cng cao hn gi xi mng Min Bc
10 15%. Hin gi bn l ximng trn th trng tip tc n nh, dao ng mc 1.3-1.5 triu ng/tn ti cc
tnh pha Bc v t 1.6-1.8 triu ng/tn pha Nam.
Do th trng xy dng bt u n ma ma nn s nh hng n nhu cu xy dng, v vy, gi xi mng
trong nc c d bo s tip tc n nh trong thng 7 sau khi gim 200,000 ng/tn vo thng 6.
3. Trnh cng ngh:
S nh my xi mng trn ton Vit Nam c chia thnh 3 nhm chnh: nhm trc thuc Tng cng ty cng
nghip xi mng Vit Nam, cc n v lin doanh vi nc ngoi v cc nh my xi mng c nhng tp on
v cng ty t nhn t u t xy dng. Tng cng trn c nc c gn 100 nh my sn xut xi mng.
Trnh cng ngh ca ngnh lc hu c k tha hng ca Nga, Php, Trung Quc nhng nm 50 ca th k
trc vn cn c s dng. Hin nay vi cc d n dy chuyn, nh my xi mng ln s thay th cng ngh
c, gip nng lc sn xut c tng ln gp nhiu ln.
Cung vt cu l tnh trng m ngnh xi mng ang phi i mt. V vy xut khu xi mng c coi l gii
php gip ngnh vt qua giai on kh khn ny. Tuy nhin nng cao cht lng sn phm, nng cao kh
nng cnh tranh chnh l tng cht lng sn phm. Ch trng ca chnh ph, n nm 2015 chm dt hot
ng ca tt c h thng xi mng l ng v chuyn sang xi mng l quay v n nm 2015 tt c cc nh my
phi t tc t nht 20% nng lng in t vic tn dng ngun nhit kh thi tha.
4. Nng lc sn xut:
Tng cng sut thit k ca cc nh my xi mng Vit Nam l 68.5 triu tn. Trong 11 cng ty xi mng ln
chim hn 50%, H Tin 1 c cng sut thit k ln nht vi 7.3 triu tn/nm.
Nh my xi
Cng sut hin ti (ngn
STT
mng
a im
tn)
1
Hong Thch
Hi Dng
4,000
2
Nghi sn
Thanh Ha
4,300
3
Bm Sn
Thanh Ha
4,000
4
Chinfon
Hi Phng
4,500
5
Bt sn
H Nam
3,000
6
Hong Mai
Ngh An
1,400
7
Tam ip
Ninh Bnh
1,400
8
Hi Phng
Hi Phng
1,400
9
Phc Sn
Hi Dng
4,000
10
Holcim
Kin Giang
3,600
11
H Tin 1
TP HCM
7,300
Tng cng sut
38,900
Theo Hip hi Xi mng Vit Nam, nm 2013 s c 6 nh my xi mng vi cng sut 6.72 triu tn i vo hot
ng, tng cng sut c nc ln trn 75 triu tn/nm. l Nh my XM X18 cng sut 1,000 tn/ngy; Nh
my XM 12/9 Ngh An (XM Du kh) cng sut 0.6 triu tn/nm; Nh my XM Trung Sn Bnh Minh (Ha
Bnh) 0.91 triu tn/nm; Nh my XM Hng Sn 0.35 triu tn/nm; XM Mai Sn (Sn La) 0.91 triu
tn/nm; XM Cng Thanh 2 (Thanh Ha) 3.6 triu tn/nm.
5. Cc nhn t nh hng.
a. Tc tng trng ca nn kinh t.
Trong vi nm tr li y, tc tng trng GDP chng li, th trng bt ng sn ng bng nh hng rt
ln n nhu cu tiu th xi mng. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam l mt nc ang pht trin, chnh ph ang ch trng
n vic pht trin c s h tng v vy s tc ng n s pht trin ca ngnh xi mng trong tng lai.
3
BO CO NGNH
Ngun: Gso.vn
b. Tnh trng cung vt cu.
Vi tnh trng cung vt cu nh hin nay th mc cnh tranh trong ngnh kh gy gt. Mc d gi nguyn
liu u vo lin tc tng nhng gi bn thnh phm kh tng theo do ngun cung d tha v vy rt kh khn
cho cc doanh nghip trong ngnh xi mng. Bn cnh , cnh tranh khng lnh mnh s nh hng n cht
lng sn phm, lm gim bn ca cng trnh.
c. Nguyn vt liu u vo
Trong c cu gi vn hng bn ch ph nguyn vt liu chim t trng ch yu v l nhn t quan trng quyt
nh li nhun ca cng ty. Nhng bin ng v gi nguyn vt liu s tc ng ng k n gi thnh v kt
qu kinh doanh ca cng ty.
Clinker l nguyn liu chnh sn xut xi mng chim n 80% chi ph nguyn vt liu. (Clinker l sn phm
nung thiu kt 1,450 C ca vi - t st v mt s ph gia iu chnh h s nh qung st, boxit, ct... ).
Cc doanh nghip xi mng min Bc hu nh t ch c ngun nguyn liu ny v cc m vi nguyn liu
sn xut clinker tp trung ch yu min Bc. Cc doanh nghip xi mng min Trung v min Nam nh
Holcim, H Tin 1 phi vn chuyn t ngoi Bc vo hoc nhp khu t i Loan, hay Hn Quc nn chi ph s
cao hn.
in chim 15% -17% gi thnh sn xut ngnh xi mng. Ngnh xi mng s gp kh khn trong thi gian n,
v theo d tho ca B Cng Thng, gi in bn cho ngnh xi mng s tng 2%-16% bt u t 1/7. Nu
c thng qua, s lm cho chi ph ca cc doanh nghip xi mng tng ln ng k, tuy nhin, gi bn xi mng
khng th nng c v nng ln phi cn c vo thu nhp bnh qun ca ngi dn.
d. Li sut.
Do c im ngnh, hu ht cc doanh nghip ngnh xi mng u c t l n kh cao nhm u t xy dng
nh my sn xut xi mng. T l n trung bnh ngnh l 79%, ri ro tn dng ngnh ny kh ln. Hin nay li
sut ang trong xu hng gim, li sut cho vay doanh nghip xoay quanh 10-13% rt thun li cho cc doanh
nghip ngnh xi mng, gim c mt khong chi ph ti chnh kh ln so vi nm 2012.
BO CO NGNH
BO CO NGNH
QNC
1.00
0.75
HOM
TB NGNH
0.82
0.65
0.33
0.38
609%
86%
401%
80%
417%
81%
1028%
91%
130%
57%
517%
79%
4.7
13.6
4.0
6.0
6.7
5.0
6.0
7.7
3.0
4.7
2.5
2.5
2.8
9.7
5.7
4.83
8.02
4.03
21%
0%
0%
22%
1%
6%
19%
-1%
-3%
13%
0%
2%
22%
5%
12%
19%
1%
3%
9,484
6
5,000
796
0%
64,502
11,951
715
5,000
7
14%
57,286
9,041
(264)
4,500
(17)
-6%
41,878
12,040
213
4,900
23
4%
94,981
12,940
1,565
5,500
4
28%
29,993
11,091
447
4,980
163
0
57,728
6,232,465
1,243
13,314,479
1,980,000
3,747,499
68,363
5,726,746
956,614
3,207,879
31,487
5,732,052
986,337
392,760
108,566
177,082
141,284
145,352
75,267
16,552
90,714
65,727
65,393
159,495
96,245
BO CO NGNH
BO CO NGNH
Ngun: PNS
Kh nng thanh ton:
T s kh nng thanh ton nhanh (ln)
T s thanh ton hin thi
T s thanh ton nhanh
HT1
BCC
0.41
0.17
0.64
0.40
BTS
0.40
0.24
QNC
1.00
0.75
HOM
TB NGNH
0.82
0.65
0.33
0.38
Nhn vo cc t s thanh ton ca cc doanh nghip ngnh xi mng, hu ht cc doanh nghip ny u khng
m bo kh nng thanh ton cc khon n ngn hn. QNC tuy m bo c kh nng thanh ton ngn hn
nhng t s thanh ton nhanh li di 1. Nh vy nguy c mt kh nng thanh ton ca cc doanh nghip xi
mng l kh cao.
C cu n:
T s c cu ti chnh (%)
T s ti sn m bo N /VSCH
T s n = Tng n/ Tng ti sn
HT1
609%
86%
BCC
401%
80%
BTS
417%
81%
QNC
1028%
91%
HOM
TB NGNH
130%
517%
57%
79%
HT1
BCC
21%
0%
0%
22%
1%
6%
BTS
19%
-1%
-3%
QNC
13%
0%
2%
HOM
TB NGNH
22%
19%
5%
1%
12%
3%
Mc d t l li gp ca ngnh xi mng tng i cao, trung bnh ngnh 19.3%. Nhng do gnh nng chi ph
ln, v vy ROE v ROA ca ngnh ny kh thp. So vi cc doanh nghip cng ngnh, nm 2012 HOM kinh
doanh tng i tt hn so vi cc doanh nghip cn li.
C. Doanh thu v li nhun 6 thng u nm 2013:
Doanh thu
Doanh thu
% Tng
6T/2013(t 6T/2012(t
trng
ng)
ng)
HT1
3,174
3,091
2.70%
BCC
1,907
1,795
6.24%
Cha c bo co TC qu 2, qu 1 l 45.5 t
BTS
ng
QNC
695
702
-1.00%
HOM
765
792
-3.41%
LNST
6T/2013(t
ng)
LNST
6T/2012(t
ng)
% Tng
trng
1.66
38
0
28
n/a
35.71%
3.30
-23
3
42
10.00%
n/a
8
BO CO NGNH
Sang nm 2013, mc d tnh hnh tiu th xi mng c ci thin so vi cng k nm 2012 nhng vn
cha gip c cc doanh nghip xi mng thot khi cn khng hong. Nguyn nhn vn l do p lc chi ph
ti chnh, chi ph u vo: in, than, bao b tng lin tc trong khi nhu cu xi mng thp do th trng BS
ng bng, gi u ra c nguy c gim do cung vt cu
HT1, thng hiu xi mng uy tn c tin dng ti th trng min Nam, mc d doanh thu tng nh t 3,174
t ng nhng li nhun ch c 1.66 t ng.
Trong thi im kh khn ca ngnh xi mng hin nay, kt qu kinh doanh ca BCC l im sng. Ly k 6
thng u nm 2013, doanh thu thun t hn 1,907 t ng, tng 6.24% so vi cng k; LNST t 38 t ng,
tng 35.71% so vi cng k nm trc. Li nhun tng mnh ch yu l do chi ph ti chnh gim mnh t 181
t ng 6 thng u nm 2012 xung cn 133 t ng.
BTS n nay vn cha c BCTC qu 2, qu 1 cng ty l 45.5 t ng.
QNC, li nhun tng nh so vi cng k. LNST 6 thng nm 2013 t 3.3 t ng tng 10% so vi cng k
nm 2012.
Kt qu kinh doanh 6 thng u nm ca HOM gim st so vi cng k nm 2012. Doanh thu t 765 t ng
gim 3.41% nhng LNST b m 23 t ng trong khi cng k nm 2012 li n 42 t ng. Theo gii trnh ca
HOM, nguyn nhn thua l l do: Gi vt t u vo qu II/2013 tng cao, c bit l gi in tng 11.4% . Sn
lng Clinke sn xut gim 66%, sn lng xi mng tiu th gim 11.9% . n gi tn kho clinker 31/12/2012
tng 27.9 % so vi n gi tn kho clinker 31/12/2011, lm gi vn qu 2 nm 2013 tng so vi gi vn cng
k 2012.
Kt Lun:
Ngnh xi mng hin nay i mt vi qu nhiu kho khn.Thi im ny cha thch hp u t vo
ngnh ny. V vy chng ti khng a ra khuyn nghi u t.
BO CO NGNH
KHUYN CO:
Ni dung bn tin ny do Cng ty C phn Chng khon Phng Nam (PNS) cung cp ch mang tnh cht
tham kho. Mc d mi thng tin u c thu thp t cc ngun tin ng tin cy, nhng PNS khng m
bo tuyt i chnh xc ca thng tin v khng chu trch nhim i vi bt k vn no lin quan n
vic s dng bn tin ny.
Cc kin, d bo v c tnh ch th hin quan im ca ngi vit ti thi im pht hnh, bo co ch
nhm mc ch cung cp thng tin tham kho ch khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn v nm gi
bt c c phiu no.
Bo co ny l ti sn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Phng Nam (PNSC). Khng ai c php sao
chp, ti sn xut, pht hnh cng nh ti phn phi bo co ny v bt c mc ch no nu khng c s
ng ca PNS. Xin vui lng ghi r ngun khi trch dn cc thng tin trong bo co ny.
PNS RESEARCH
Trng phng
: T Bnh Quyn
quyen.to@ chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
Ph phng
: ng Th Thanh Bnh
binh.dang@chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
linh.huynh@chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
LIN H
Phng Phn tch Cng ty c phn chng khon Phng Nam
a ch: 28 30 32 Nguyn Th Ngha, P. Bn Thnh, Q.1, Tp.HCM.
Tel: (848) 62556518 Fax: (848) 62556519
Email: info@chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
Website : www. Chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
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