Overview of How To Lie With

Statistics by Darrell Huff

With additional insights

Chapter 1 - Sampling Biases

Response Bias: Tendency for people to over- or
under-state the truth
Non-response: People who complete surveys are
systematically different from those who fail to
respond. Accessibility/Pride.
Representative Sample: One where all sources of
bias have been removed. (Literary Digest)
Questionnaire wording/Interviewer effects
Recall Bias: Tendency for one group to remember
prior exposure in retrospective studies

Chapter 2 - Well-Chosen Average

Arithmetic Mean: Evenly distributes the total
among individuals. Can be unrepresentative
when measurements are highly skewed right.
(e.g. per capita income)
Median: Value dividing distribution into two
equal parts. 50th percentile. (e.g. median
household income)
Mode: Most frequently observed outcome (rarely
reported with numeric data)

Chapter 3 - Little Figures Not There

Small samples: Estimators with large standard
errors, can provide seemingly very strong effects
Low incidence rates: Need very large samples for
meaningful estimates of low frequency events
Significance levels/margins of error: Measures of
the strength and precision of inference
Ranges: Report ranges or standard deviations
along with means (e.g. normal ranges)
Inferring among individuals versus populations
Clearly label chart axes

Chapter 4 - Much Ado About Nothing

Probable Error: Estimation error with probability
0.5. If estimator is approximately normal, PE is
approximately 0.675 standard errors. (Old school)
Margin of Error: Estimation error with probability
0.95. If estimator is approximately normal, PE is
approximately 2 standard errors
Clinical (practical) significance: In very large
samples an effect may be significant statistically,
but not in a practical sense. Report confidence
intervals as well as P-values.

Chapter 6 - Eye-Catching Graphs

Choice of ranges on graphs can have huge
impact on interpretation (e.g. percent change)
Choice of proportion of y-axis to x-axis can
distort as well (very easy to do with modern
software)
Can also distort bar charts by having them start
at positive values and/or trimming below an
artificial baseline to 0

Chapter 6 - 1-D Pictures

Bar Charts and Pictorial Graphs should have
areas proportional to values (only make
comparisons in one dimension)

Chapter 7 - Semiattached Figure

Target Population: Group we want to make
inference regarding
Study Population: Group or items that
experiment or survey is conducted on
When comparative studies are conducted among
products,treatments, or groups; what is the
comparison product, treatment, or group?
Control for all other potential risk factors when
studying effects of factors

Chapter 8 - Causal Relationships

Correlation does not imply causation
Elements of causal relationships
Association between Y and X
Clear time ordering (X precedes Y)
Removal of alternative explanations
(controlling for other factors)
Dose-Response (when possible)