Pennsylvania House Appropriations Committee

Economic Brief
Rep. Mario J. Civera, Jr., Republican Chairman January 2010

December 2009 Revenues Come in $37 Million Below Estimate;

Year-to-Date Shortfall Jumps to $254 Million
General Fund revenues fell short of estimate for the 20th consecutive
month in December, as collections came in $37.2 million below the
Department of Revenue’s official estimate. This brings the year-to-date Economic Indicators
revenue deficit to $254.2 million.

As has been the case throughout the 2009-10 fiscal year, both Sales Pennsylvania Labor Statistics
Tax and Personal Income Tax collections failed to meet their projected
monthly mark. Being the two largest revenue sources of the General
Fund, the shortfalls in these taxes will continue to dictate the depth of the Current Monthly
state’s current-year deficit. Labor Market Data Change
Despite the overall shortfall, there were some notable above-estimate Unemployment Rate 8.5% -0.4%
collections for the month. Taxes on cigarettes, liquor and real estate
transfers all exceeded their monthly projections. They are also showing Non-Farm Employment 5,605,200 -0.2%
above-estimate collections for the year as well.
Manufacturing Jobs 567,100 -0.2%
Only two months after signing the budget and certifying a $28.56 billion
revenue estimate, Governor Rendell last month announced a projected Manufacturing Avg.
$450 million deficit by year’s end. Unfortunately, this realization comes at Hourly Earnings $16.62 +0.7%
a time when the state has nothing in reserve to offset the shortfall since
the final budget drained all of these funds. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent in November 2009,
down from 8.9 percent in October. The total number of unemployed residents
The current situation proves House Republicans were correct to raise declined by 22,000, while total employment increased by 10,000. These changes –
coupled with a decline in the Civilian Labor Force – factored into the state’s rate
red flags regarding this year’s state budget. It is becoming more and more decrease. The national unemployment rate is currently marked at 10 percent.
evident with each passing month that the final budget not only spent too
* All data is derived from monthly reports published by the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics
much, but also created further budget problems for the coming fiscal year. and the PA Department of Labor and Industry. All data is considered preliminary until the department finalizes its
reports.

Pennsylvania General Fund Revenue Collections

December 2009
$4,500,000,000

Actual Estimate $4,000,000,000

Estimate
Actual
Corporation Taxes $3,500,000,000

$377.1 Million $405.8 Million $3,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

Consumption Taxes $2,000,000,000

$759.3 Million $781.8 Million $1,500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

Other Taxes $500,000,000

$810.9 Million $801.3 Million $-

Non-Tax Revenue Pennsylvania General Fund revenues continued to fall short of estimate in
December, as collections came in $37.2 million below the Department of Revenue’s
official projection. The decline marked the 20th consecutive month in which the
$36.3 Million $31.8 Million state failed to meet its monthly mark. Through six months this fiscal year, the state
is currently $254.2 million short of estimate.

Pennsylvania House Appropriations Committee

Room 245 Main Capitol ** Harrisburg, PA 17120 ** (717) 787-1711