Opening Bell

December 15, 2014

Market Outlook
Indian markets are expected to remain volatile on weak global cues.
Investors should exercise caution while investing as volatility may
remain high over the next few sessions.

Todays Highlights
India WPI YoY

Index Movement (past one month)

8800

32000

8600

31000
30000

8400

29000

8200

28000

Key Developments

BSE (RHS)

IIP for October 2014 recorded a sharp decline of 4.2% YoY much
lower than Street expectation, led by a sharp contraction in
manufacturing wherein output declined 7.6% during same month.
However, mining and electricity recorded healthy growth of 5.2%
and 13.3% during October 2014. Under the use based category,
output of basic goods increased 5.8% with the healthy growth in
output of mining and electricity. Consumer goods continued to
decline and recorded their sharpest decline of 18.6% led by 35.2%
decline in production of consumer durable. On the other hand,
capital goods and intermediate goods production declined 2.3% and
3.1%, respectively. The cumulative growth for April-October 2014
came in at 1.9% YoY
Ministry of Railways plans to raise charges for container operators in
two phases instead of one sharp hike. The hike will be slashed by
33% in February next year. Subsequently from March 1 the entire
hike will be implemented
Infosys has appointed Andrew Groth as its new head for Australia
and New-Zealand to capture opportunities in existing clients across
education, manufacturing and mining sectors in the digital space

Sensex
Nifty

12-Dec

10-Dec

8-Dec

4-Dec

2-Dec

28-Nov

26-Nov

24-Nov

27000
20-Nov

8000
18-Nov

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets closed negative after a volatile day of trade
partially due to weakness in domestic currency amid caution ahead
of major macro data that was released after market hours on Friday
US markets closed negative due to a sharp decline in oil prices amid
concern about oil demand after the International Energy Agency cut
its outlook for 2015 global oil demand growth

NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

27,351 27,602
-0.9
-4.7
29.2
17.6
8,224
8,224
0.0
-4.2
30.5
17.5

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY12
127,034
-55,635

CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days

112,221
105,342
-865
3,241
-73,929
-36,634
323
1,607

World Indices Monthly performance

Shanghai
2,906
17.8%
Dow Jones
17,281
-1.9%

Germany
9,595
4.2%
NSE
8,224
-1.9%

Nikkei
17,144
1.0%
Kospi
1,911
-2.3%

Nasdaq
4,654
-0.5%
BSE
27,351
-2.4%

France
4,109
-1.7%
U.K.
6,301
-4.7%

Nifty Heat Map

United
Spirits

2,846.6

Sun
Pharma

843.4

Asian
Paints

774.3

ACC
Cipla
Wipro
M&M
Bajaj
Auto
JSPL
Sesa
Sterlite

3.4%
1.0%
0.6%
1,430.0
0.1%
640.9
-0.2%
543.2
-0.6%
1,251.4
-1.2%
2,521.4
-1.6%
140.5
-2.2%
215.9
-2.7%

Bharti
Airtel
NMDC

348.0
1.4%
139.1
1.0%

Hero
Moto

3,124.9

Kotak
Bank

1,247.3

NTPC

0.3%
0.1%
133.0
-0.4%

Tata
Motors

500.0

Bank of
Baroda

1,059.7

TCS
DLF
ONGC

-0.8%
-1.3%
2,450.7
-1.7%
152.1
-2.5%
337.1
-3.5%

Ambuja
Cement
Infosys
HUL

225.8
1.2%
1,938.7
0.9%
797.8
0.2%

Grasim
Ind

3,360.7

ICICI
Bank

346.3

Power
Grid

134.8

Hindalco
L&T
HCL Tech
Cairn
India

0.0%
-0.5%
-0.8%
153.6
-1.3%
1,511.0
-1.8%
1,512.5
-2.5%
242.1
-3.5%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Maruti
Lupin
Coal India
HDFC
Bank
PNB
SBI
Axis Bank
IDFC
BHEL
Tata Steel

3,379.3
1.1%
1,449.9
0.9%
364.4
0.2%
931.5
-0.2%
1,096.2
-0.5%
311.4
-0.9%
483.4
-1.4%
155.8
-2.1%
247.4
-2.6%
402.7
-3.8%

Ultratech
BPCL
Indusind
Bank
ITC
Tata
power
Tech M.
Dr Reddy
HDFC Ltd
RIL
GAIL

2,511.5
1.1%
667.6
0.7%
778.7
0.1%
395.7
-0.2%
84.3
-0.5%
2,588.6
-1.2%
3,377.8
-1.5%
1,069.5
-2.1%
882.4
-2.6%
424.3
-4.4%

Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)

27,169
37,948
61.9
6542.3

27,209
37,825
61.9
6517.5

-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.4

3.4
6.4
-11.7
2.0

-1.3
-12.6
-44.1
-11.3

62.30
1.25
118.75

62.35
1.25
118.75

-0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.4
0.0
-0.1

-0.8
-9.4
-11.3

49.8
11.6
42.6
31.3
53.9

50.1
11.8
43.6
31.7
54.6

-0.7
-1.9
-2.2
-1.2
-1.2

-4.0
NA
-9.1
-6.9
-4.5

44.5
NA
38.3
10.5
31.4

Sectoral Index
Sector

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

18674.5

18761.4

-86.9

-0.5

955000

Banks

20975.2

21089.2

-114.0

-0.5

4379000

BSE Small Cap

11068.5

11236.5

-168.1

-1.5

77978000

Capital Goods

15226.1

15537.0

-310.9

-2.0

10603000

9566.2

9789.8

-223.7

-2.3

438000

FMCG

3,307
16,409

2,976
16,361

8-Dec

3,041
15,513

5-Dec

9-Dec

10-Dec

11-Dec

12-Dec

BSE Cash

NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

5-Dec

8-Dec

9-Dec

10-Dec

242,100

100000

283,719

200000

203,090

300000

11-Dec

12-Dec

NSE Derivative

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Auto

Consumer Durables

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

3,040
16,149

Prior Values
4,757.51bln IN
-7.8bln mo
-314.66bln $
5.70%
4.50%
39.4bln $
2.50%
2.50%
-34.6bln $
13.35bln $
2.70%
0.40%
1.77%
2.43%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%

244,844

Latest Values
10.1bln mo
5.30%
4.70%
-4.20%
-7.60%
38.6bln $
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%

3,166
22,771

Release Date
31-Dec
03~08Dec
10~18Dec
19-Dec
28-Nov
30-May
10~18Dec
12-Dec
12-Dec
03~08Dec
10~18Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec

206,425

Period
Nov
Q3
Nov
w/e
Q2
12M
Nov
Oct
Oct
Q3
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
N/A
N/A
N/A

3,623
17,152

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Key Domestic Economic Indicator

Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate

128,610

Key Data Points

8117.1

8125.1

-8.0

-0.1

700000

Healthcare

14946.4

14918.7

27.7

0.2

1254000

IT

10296.8

10339.6

-42.9

-0.4

1738000

Metals

10577.3

10732.6

-155.3

-1.4

5338000

Mid Cap

10108.6

10239.7

-131.1

-1.3

92455000

Oil & Gas

9800.1

10065.1

-265.0

-2.6

2649000

Power

2011.4

2040.6

-29.1

-1.4

8527000

PSU

7978.9

8101.0

-122.2

-1.5

15065000

Real Estate

1590.4

1630.6

-40.2

-2.5

10725000

FMCG
Banks
Auto
Healthcare
Mid Cap
BSE Small Cap
Consumer
PSU
Capital Goods
Real Estate
IT
Power
Metals
Oil & Gas
-15.0

4.6
4.3
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-1.0
-2.2
-2.7
-3.6
-3.9
-4.3
-5.2
-5.6
-10.1
-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

(%)

Key News for Today

Company/Industry
Tata Motors

News
Jaguar Land rover sales volumes for November
2014 came in at 41,318 (modest growth of 2%
YoY). Land rover sales came in at 35,134 units
(growth of 4% YoY) while Jaguar came in at
6,184 (decline of 12% YoY)

View
The monthly sales volumes have come
in line with our expectations. The
positive highlight of the month is that
sales momentum in the Chinese market
seems to be strong even as
US/European markets are modest

TCS

During its quarterly analyst briefing, TCS'

management guided for a soft Q3FY15E dollar
revenue growth led by seasonality, slowdown in
UK BFSI and 220 bps cross currency headwinds.
The management also indicated lower optimism
now for FY15E growth as compared to the start
of the year

Client specific issues coupled with

seasonality (holidays, furloughs) will
impact revenue growth. Change in
commentary stance from optimistic to
conservative/realistic could lead to nearterm stock correction

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Impact

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Weakness below previous candle to

open further downsides ... " Up 90 points at 11
am, the index later reversed. Breaking the
previous day's low, it lost 372 points intra-day
and finished 251 points or 0.9% lower. All
sectors ended flat to negative. The oil & gas,
realty and capital goods indices lost 2-3%
each while the A/D worsened to 1:4.
The action formed a bigger Bear candle, which
maintained lower high-low for the sixth
consecutive day. Its low of 27320 is testing the
50% retracement level. Weakness below
27319 would make the current fall the biggest
fall since August 2013. With negative global
cues, we may watch if the Sensex makes any
attempt to hold the 61.8% level on downside,
or not.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks

Close
27350.68
8224.10
1429.95
444.25
43.65
1662.40
125.35
87.75
1145.00
222.20
266.00
49.05
774.30
1156.70
2521.35
1059.65
284.15
1278.40

SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA

S1
27216.40
8186.30
1430.30
444.50
43.15
1643.15
123.05
86.55
1138.05
215.75
261.75
48.10
775.40
1153.90
2496.90
1043.50
278.75
1262.55

S2
27143.45
8165.50
1425.45
442.50
42.85
1630.40
121.55
85.30
1131.20
214.35
258.45
47.70
771.60
1144.55
2483.90
1033.15
275.45
1250.10

R1
27402.50
8239.10
1440.05
448.50
43.85
1669.00
126.15
88.15
1151.85
222.50
267.65
49.40
783.10
1172.60
2528.05
1061.80
286.35
1286.30

R2
27495.60
8265.50
1446.00
452.45
44.20
1681.90
127.70
88.95
1158.75
225.85
270.60
50.05
789.60
1179.45
2543.60
1070.95
290.10
1298.20

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) December 2014

7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600

15
30

100.0

28
35
22
58
98

50

142
20

116
0.0

50.0
Call

Intraday

Short Term

Trend
Trend Reversal

Range bound
0

Range bound
0

Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

8260-8235
8325-8350
0
0

8180
8650
8395
7591

Advances / Declines
Advances
880
350

BSE
NSE

Declines
2042
1167

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy Lupin in the range of 1453.00-1455.00
2. Sell SSLT below 216.50

*All recommendations are of December Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Buy GUJAMB Dec Fut at 228-228.50
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 231.50
Target 2: 236.50
Stop Loss: 224.40
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 227.50

50.0

Nifty

Intraday Derivative Strategy

76
84
86
82
70

Trend
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
Neutral
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve

100.0
Put

150.0

200.0

Sell HDFBAN Dec Fut at 932-934

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 920
Target 2: 910
Stop Loss: 948
Market Lot: 250
CMP : 936.50

See Daily Derivatives for more details

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Unchanged
94
60

Results/Events Calendar

24

November
Monday

Markit US Service PMI

Markit US Composite PMI
0
0
0

01

December
Monday

HSBC India Manu. PMI

Markit Japan Manu. PMI
Markit EC Manu. PMI
Markit UK Manu. PMI
Mankit US Manu. PMI

08

December
Monday

Japan Current Account Bal.

0
0
0
0

15

December
Monday

India WPI YoY

US Industrial Prod. MoM
US manufacturing Prod.
0
0

22
0
0
0
0
0

December
Monday

25

Tuesday

Eight Infra Industries Ind

US GDP Annualized QoQ
0
0
0

02

17

Tuesday

24

Tuesday

UK GDP YoY
UK Current Account Balance
US GDP Annualised QoQ
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

Major Economic Events this week

Date
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
16-Dec
16-Dec
16-Dec
16-Dec
17-Dec
17-Dec
17-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
19-Dec

Event
CountryPeriod Expected Previous
Wholesale Prices YoY
IN
Nov
1.10%
1.77%
Industrial Production MoM
US
Nov
0.70% -0.10%
Manufacturing (SIC) Production US
Nov
0.70%
0.20%
Dec P
49.8
50.0
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing EC
Dec P
50.6
50.1
Nov
1.20%
1.30%
CPI YoY
UK
Markit US Manufacturing PMI US
Dec P
56.0
54.8
Trade Balance
JN
Nov
-992.0B -710.0B
CPI YoY
EC
Nov F
0.30%
-CPI YoY
US
Nov
1.50%
1.70%
Current Account Balance
US
3Q
-$97.5B -$98.5B
Initial Jobless Claims
US
13-Dec
-294K
Continuing Claims
US
6-Dec
-2514K
Markit US Composite PMI
US
Dec P
-56.1
Markit US Services PMI
US
Dec P
-56.2
ECB Current Account SA
EC
Oct
-30.0B

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Thursday

19

Thursday

Friday

26

December
Thursday

0
0
0
0
0

Friday

06

December

13

December

20

December

27

December

Saturday

Saturday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

India Eight Infra Industries

Japan CPI YoY
Japan Industrial Prod. YoY
0
0

November

0
0
0
0
0

December

ECB Current Account

0
0
0
0

29
0
0
0
0
0

December

India CPI YoY

India Industrial Prod YoY
China Industrial Prod YoY
Japan Industrial Production
UK Construction Output

December

25

December

12

December

US Initial Jobless Claims

US Continuing Claims
Markit US Comp. PMI
Markit US Service PMI
0

Wednesday

Friday

US Trade Balance
US Unemployment Rate
EC GDP SA YoY
0
0

18

December

US CPI YoY
Eurozone CPI YoY
US Current Account Balance
Japan Trade Balance
0

December

Thursday

US Initial Jobless Claims

US Continuing Claims
0
0
0

Wednesday

05

December

11

December

November

India GDP YoY

India Fiscal Deficit
Japan Industrial production
EC CPI Core YoY
EC Unemployment Rate

0
0
0
0
0

Wednesday

India Exports YoY

India Imports YoY
Japan PPI YoY
China CPI YoY
0

December

HSBC China Manu. PMI

Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI
UK CPI YoY
Markit US Manu. PMI
0

23

10

Tuesday

Thursday

04

December

28

November

0
0
0
0
0

Wednesday

HSBC India Service PMI

China Non-Manu. PMI
Markit EC Service PMI
Markit EC Composite PMI
EC GDP YoY

December

UK Industrial Production YoY

UK Manu. Production YoY
0
0
0

16

03

Tuesday

27

November

Wednesday

UK GDP YoY
Initial Jobless Claims (US)
Continuing Claims (US)
US New Home Sales
0

December

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Repurchase Rate
EC PPI YoY
0

09

26

November

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Bulk Deals
Client Name

Type

No. of
shares Price (|)

Abhik Advertising Private Limited

Shipra Fabrics Pvt Ltd

Buy
Buy

49,200
34,800

NSE*
Havells India Limited

Vontobel Funds Inc A/C

Sell

4,544,151

271.2

Shreyas Shipping & Logs.

Equity Intelligence India Private Ltd

Sell

150,000

187.5

Company
BSE*
Looks Health Services
Rekvina Laboratories Ltd

Recent Releases
Date

Report

10 December 14

Management Meet Update- Gandhi Special Tubes

08 December 14

Management Meet Update- APL Apollo

05 December 14

Company Update - Infosys

01 December 14

Quick Comment- Titan Company

26 November 14

Result Update - Pipavav Defence

143.2
15.0

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stock specific news/news expectations.
Based on short-term technical trends and
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Technical trends for a week considering key

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Features stocks with a trading outlook for a
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Trading opportunities in futures & options
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data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis
along with statistical inputs.
Derivatives outlook on global equity indices,
currencies and commodities. Also,
elaborating the likely impact on the Indian
bourses.
Trading outlook for a month based on
medium-term technical trends considering
key technical indicators & statistical
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Medium & Long term recommendations

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whenever opportunity occurs we give these
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4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

10%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest

Not regularly
recommended

3 months

20%

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

Fortnightly
Fortnightly every
alternate Wednesday

> 7-15
days

5 7%

When published

> 1 year

> 20% &

above

Quarterly

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research