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2003 Mccain Valko
2003 Mccain Valko
www.elsevier.com/locate/jpetscieng
Abstract
A large number of recently published bubblepoint pressure correlations have been checked against a large, diverse set of
service company fluid property data with worldwide origins. The accuracy of the correlations is dependent on the precision
with which the data are measured. In this work a bubblepoint pressure correlation is proposed which is as accurate as the
data permit.
Certain correlations, for bubblepoint pressure and other fluid properties, require use of stock-tank gas rate and specific
gravity. Since these data are seldom measured in the field, additional correlations are presented in this work, requiring only data
usually available in field operations. These correlations could also have usefulness in estimating stock-tank vent gas rate and
quality for compliance purposes.
D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Oil property correlation; Bubblepoint pressure; Solution gas oil ratio; Surface gas specific gravity; Non-parametric regression
1. Introduction
A large number of correlations for estimation of
bubblepoint pressures of reservoir oils have been
offered in the petroleum engineering literature over
the last few years to go with a handful of correlations published earlier. Many of these new correlations are based on data from a single geographical
area. Most of these correlations were derived using
petroleum service company laboratory fluid property
data.
0920-4105/02/$ - see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0920-4105(02)00319-4
154
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
and cgST in Fig. 1.1) Certain correlations, for bubblepoint pressure and other fluid properties, require
knowledge of these quantities. Since these data are
seldom measured in the field, additional correlations
are presented in this work, requiring only data usually
available in field operations.
An additional and potentially important application
of these new correlations could be in estimating stocktank vent gas rate and quality for compliance purposes.
This paper is organized as follows. The methodology is described in Section 1. Section 2 deals with
various aspects of bubblepoint correlations, evaluation
of published methods, improvement of existing methTable 2.1
The bubblepoint pressure data set has a wide range of values of the
independent variables
Laboratory measurement
(1745 records)
Minimum
10
82
60
6.0
0.555
Mean
588
2193
185
35.7
0.838
Maximum
2216
6700
342
63.7
1.685
Table 2.2
A comparison of published bubblepoint pressure correlations using
data described in Table 2.1 reveals the more reliable correlations
Predicted bubblepoint pressure
ARE, %
AARE, %
3.5
1.2
0.0
2.1
1.3
4.2
1.4
7.1
5.4
8.6
4.4
0.9
4.8
5.6
8.8
0.3
0.6
4.9
12.6
10.6
17.7
42.4
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
13.3
13.9
14.3
14.6
15.5
15.6
15.7
16.1
16.8
17.8
17.8
21.8
22.3
23.1
23.1
28.8
37.7
45.2
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
155
where z
m
X
zn
and
zn fn xn
n1
1 1
2. Statistical methods
This work systematically uses a relatively novel
technique to reveal the underlying statistical relationships among variables corrupted by random error. The
method of alternating conditional expectations (ACE)
developed by Breiman and Friedman (1985)as
other similar non-parametric statistical regression
methodsis intended to alleviate the main drawback
of parametric regression, i.e., the mismatch of assumed model structure and the actual data. In nonparametric regression a-priori knowledge of the functional relationship between the dependent variable y
and independent variables, x1, x2,. . .xm, is not required. In fact, one of the main results of non-parametric regression is determination of the actual form
of this relationship.
The functions f1(), f2(),. . . fm() are called variable transformations yielding the transformed independent variables z1, z2,. . . zm. The function f () is
the transformation for the dependent variable. In fact
the main interest is its inverse: f 1(), yielding the
dependent variable y from the transformed dependent
variable z.
Given N observation points, we wish to find the
best transformation functions f1(), f2(),. . ., fm()
and f 1(), but first not as algebraic expressions,
rather as relationships defined point-wise. The
method of alternating conditional expectations
(ACE) constructs and modifies the individual transformations to achieve maximum correlation in the
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Fig. 2.1. Calculated bubblepoint pressures from Eq. (2-1) compare well with measured bubblepoint pressures (1745 data records).
156
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
transformed space.
Graphically this means that the
P
plot of z m
n1 fn xn against zV = f( y measured )
should be as near to the 45j straight line as
possible. The resulting individual transformations
are given in the form of a point-by-point plot
and/or table, thus in any subsequent application
(graphical or algebraic) interpolation needed to
obtain the transformed variables and to apply the
inverse transformation to predict y. Obviously, the
smoother the transformation the more justified and
straightforward the interpolation is; therefore, some
kind of restriction on smoothness is built into the
ACE algorithm. In other words, based on the
concept of conditional expectation, the correlation
in transformed space is maximized by iteratively
adjusting the individual transformations subject to a
smoothness condition.
The particular realization of the algorithm, GRACE
(Xue et al., 1997), used here consists of two parts. The
first part provides the transformations in the form of
tables and the second part allows the user to construct
Fig. 2.2. The bubblepoint pressure correlation, Eq. (2-1), is reliable (regarding unbiasedness ) across the spectrum of reservoir temperatures.
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
ARE
N
100 X
ycalculated ymeasured
N i1
ymeasured
1 2
157
1 3
25
20
15
10
This work
Standing
Glaso
Lasater
Labedi
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Reservoir Temperature, oF
Fig. 2.3. The bubblepoint pressure correlation, Eq. (2-1), is reliable (regarding scatter) across the spectrum of reservoir temperatures.
158
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
20
10
This work
Standing
Glaso
Lasater
-10
Labedi
-20
500
1000
1500
2000
Fig. 2.4. The bubblepoint pressure correlation, Eq. (2-1), is reliable (regarding unbiasedness) across the spectrum of solution gas oil ratios at
the bubblepoint, Rsb.
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
4
X
zn
and
where
n1
lnRsb 5.48
API
1.27
cgSP
4.51
0.7835
TR
2 1
C1
C2
C3
0.0378
0.0449
10.84
6.23 10 3
0.281
4.36 10 4
8.39
1.22 10 5
0.0206
4.76 10 6
2.34
1.03 10 8
159
Fig. 2.5. The bubblepoint pressure correlation, Eq. (2-1), is reliable (regarding scatter) across the spectrum of solution gas oil ratios at the
bubblepoint, Rsb.
160
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
Fig. 2.6. The bubblepoint pressure correlation, Eq. (2-1), is reliable (regarding unbiasedness) across the spectrum of stock-tank oil gravities.
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
161
Fig. 2.7. The bubblepoint pressure correlation, Eq. (2-1), is reliable (regarding scatter) across the spectrum of stock-tank oil gravities.
tive errors for the full data set are given in Table 2.4.
The amount of adjustment indicated is an averaged
measure of the precision with which that variable
was measured/controlled during the laboratory procedure. The extremely low values of average necessary adjustment (bias) show that the measurement
errors in the data are randomly distributed, i.e. there
is virtually no bias. The average absolute relative
Table 2.3
The bubblepoint pressure correlation of this study can be used in
various geographical areas with adequate accuracy
Table 2.4
The extremely low values of the average relative adjustments (ARA)
indicate random scatter and the average absolute relative adjustments, (AARA) are reasonable
Geographical area
Variable
Worldwide
Middle-East, Al-Marhoun (1988)
North Sea, Glaso (1980)
Egypt, Hanafy (1999)
Malaysia, Omar and Todd (1993)
USA, Katz (1942)
AARE, %
1745
157
17
125
93
53
10.9
9.8
11.1
12.2
11.8
12.2
Temperature, jF
0.1
Stock-tank oil gravity, jAPI
0.0
Separator gas specific gravity 0.0
Solution gas oil ratio
0.3
at pb, scf/STB
Bubblepoint pressure, psia 0.2
ARAA, %
4.0
1.9
1.4
2.5
5.5
162
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
400
ARA: -0.1 %
AARA: 4.0 %
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
Fig. 2.8. Reservoir temperatures adjusted to satisfy a perfect correlation compared with original measured reservoir temperatures.
Fig. 2.9. Stock-tank oil gravities adjusted to satisfy a perfect correlation compared with original measured stock-tank oil gravities.
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
163
1.8
ARA: 0.0 %
AARA: 1.4 %
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Separator specific gas gravity, Measured
1.6
1.8
Fig. 2.10. Separator gas specific gravities adjusted to satisfy a perfect correlation compared with original measured separator gas specific
gravities.
10000
ARA 0.0 %
AARA 1.8 %
1000
100
10
10
100
1000
Solution gas-oil ratio at Pb, Measured, scf/STB
10000
Fig. 2.11. Solution gas oil ratios adjusted to satisfy a perfect correlation compared with original measured solution gas oil ratios.
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
164
10000
ARA -0.2 %
AARA 5.5 %
1000
100
10
10
100
1000
10000
Fig. 2.12. Bubblepoint pressures adjusted to satisfy a perfect correlation compared with original measured bubblepoint pressures.
3 1
Table 3.1
Separator/stock-tank data set has a wide range of values of the
independent variables
Laboratory measurement
(881 records)
Minimum Mean
Maximum
130
950
92
194
36.2
56.8
559
1817
70
527
0.879
1.292
0.837
1.237
1.256
1.598
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
3
X
zn
and
n1
3 2
VAR
C0
C1
C2
1
2
3
lnpSP
lnTSP
API
8.005
1.224
1.587
2.7
0.5
0.0441
0.161
0
2.29 10 5
165
Table 3.2
Average errors in estimates of Rsb for this study are within expected
experimental error
Correlation
ARE, %
AARE, %
0.0
9.9
0.0
14.1
5.2
11.8
9.9
14.1
Fig. 3.1. Total surface gas oil ratios, calculated with Eqs. (3-1) and (3-2) compare favorably with measured surface gas oil ratios (881 data
points).
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
166
Table 3.3
The Rsb prediction is consistent across the data set
Data set
Number of
points, N
ARE, %
AARE, %
All data
PSP V 50 psig
50 psig < PSP V
100 psig
PSP > 100 psig
TSP V 80 jF
TSP > 80 jF
RSP V 300 scf/STB
300 scf/STB < RSP V
700 scf/STB
RSP > 700 scf/STB
881
359
291
0.0
0.4
1.9
5.2
4.3
5.0
231
472
409
294
287
3.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
0.8
6.9
5.3
5.1
9.6
3.8
300
0.5
2.1
dure. As shown in Table 3.2, ignoring the stocktank gas causes an error of almost 14% with the
data set of Table 3.1. Notice that this error is
always biased negative, i.e. the estimate of Rsb is
always low.
cg
4 1
3 3
3 4
where
5
X
zn
n1
and
4 2
VAR
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
1
2
3
4
5
lnpSP
lnRSP
API
cgSP
TSP
17.275
0.3354
3.705
155.52
2.085
7.9597
0.3346
0.4273
629.61
7.097 10 2
1.1013
0.1956
1.818 10 2
957.38
9.859 10 4
2.7735 10 2
3.4374 10 2
3.459 10 4
647.57
6.312 10 6
3.2287 10 3
2.08 10 3
2.505 10 6
163.26
1.4 10 8
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
Table 4.1
Average errors in estimates of surface gas specific gravity are well
within expected experimental error
Correlation
ARE, %
AARE, %
Eqs. (4-2),
(3-2) and (4-1)
Eq. (4-3)
Eq. (4-4)
0.7
2.2
0.0
6.2
3.8
6.2
167
4 3
This equation was developed with the data illustrated in Table 3.1 using a simple statistical method.
Average errors for the use of Eq. (4-3) along with
average errors associated with using the separator gas
specific gravity as a substitute for weighted average
surface gas specific gravity, Eq. (4-4), are given in
Table 4.1.
cg cgSP
4 4
Fig. 4.1. Weighted average surface gas specific gravities, calculated with Eqs. (4-2), (3-2), and (4-1) compare favorably with measured weighted
average surface gas specific gravities (618 data points).
168
P.P. Valko, W.D. McCain Jr. / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 37 (2003) 153169
Table 4.2
The surface gas specific gravity estimates are consistent across the
data set
Data set
Number
of points, N
ARE, %
AARE, %
All data
PSP V 50 psig
50 psig < PSP V
100 psig
PSP>100 psig
TSP V 80 jF
TSP>80 jF
RSP V 300 scf/STB
300 scf/STB < RSP V
700 scf/STB
RSP>700 scf/STB
618
274
245
0.7
0.6
1.2
2.2
1.9
2.4
99
389
229
170
205
0.4
0.2
1.4
1.5
0.5
2.4
2.0
2.5
3.7
2.1
243
0.3
1.3
6. Conclusions
(1) The use of Eq. (2-1) will result in reasonable
estimates of bubblepoint pressure.
(2) The 10% AARE of Eq. (2-1) cannot be improved
significantly. Given the precision with which the
input data are measured, an AARE of 10% or more
is to be expected. Further attempts at improving
the AARE of a bubblepoint correlation using data
of this quality will be futile.
(3) Generally, correlations based on data sets limited
to a specific geographical area are not necessary. A
carefully prepared universal correlation gives
adequate results.
(4) The use of Eqs. (3-2) and (3-1) to convert the field
measured separator gas oil ratio, RSP, into solution gas oil ratio at the bubblepoint, Rsb, results
in values of Rsb which are as accurate as routinely
measured in the laboratory.
(5) The use of Eq. (3-3) to estimate solution gas oil
ratio at the bubblepoint from separator gas oil
ratio data when separator conditions are not known
is adequate for engineering calculations and is
certainly preferred to ignoring the stock-tank gas
oil ratio.
(6) The use of Eqs. (4-2), (3-2) and (4-1) to estimate
weighted average surface gas specific gravity re-
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