Events &

Probabilities
Sample space
Basic probability rules
Composite events
Exclusive events

Experiment, sample space

& event
The set of all possible outcomes in a situation is the
sample space, S.
For example, in the random experiment of tossing a
die, the sample space is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
An event is a set of outcomes which satisfies a given
conditions.
In the example of tossing a die, we can define event A
as getting multiples of 3. Then, A = {3, 6}

Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event in a sample

space.
Let A be an event in S.
Then the probability of A occurring, P(A), is defined as
number of ontcomes in A
P ( A)
number of outcomes in S
n( A)
P ( A)
n( S )

In the above example, n(S) = 6 and n(A) = 2.

n( A) 2 1
P ( A)

n( S ) 6 3

Basic probability rules

Since A is a subset of S,
we have
0 n(A) n(S).
0
n( A) n( S )
So

n( s ) n( S ) n( S )
n( A)
0
1
n( S )
0 P ( A) 1

When P(A) = 0, does it mean that A will not happen?

When P(A) = 1, does it mean that A must happen?

Complement of an event

In the Venn diagram,

n(A) + n(A) = n(S)
n( A' ) n( A) n( S )

n( S ) n ( S ) n( S )

P(A) + P(A) = 1
Or
P(A) = 1 - P(A)

A
A

Composite events
The most common ways to combine two events, A
and B, are to use the words and and or.
A and B means both A and B happen. This refers to
the intersection of set A and set B, A B.
A or B means either A or B or both A and B
happen. This refers to the union of set A and set B,
A B.

A and B

A or B

Composite events
From the Venn diagram, for any two events A and B

n(A B) = n(A) + n(B) n(A B)

n( A B ) n( A) n( B ) n( A B )

n( S )
n( S ) n( S )
n( S )

Or

S
A

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

P(A B) + P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

Exclusive events
Exclusive events are events that cannot happen
S
together.
A
If A and B are exclusive events,
then A B = .
From the rule, P(A B) + P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
we have
P(A B) = 0.
Thus
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

This is often used to define exclusiveness of two events.

In other words, A and B are said to be exclusive if
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

Mutually exclusive events

When there are three or more events, the various

possibilities are:

S A

S A

B
Mutually exclusive
S

Exclusive, but not mutually exclusive

A

S
C
B

Exclusive, but not mutually exclusive

Not exclusive