University of French West Indies and Guiana

Fish Search and Equilibrium Conservation

Nicolas SANZ and Bassirou DIOP
09/07/2014

Objectives

Objective 1 : Take into account that overall shing activities are

costly, not instantaneous, and whose duration is stochastic
Objective 2 : Find an (equilibrium) expression of the global conserved stock, and analyze its sensitivity to economic and ecological
parameters => application of search and matching labor market
theories to the analysis and understanding of sheries behavior
Objective 3 : analyze three variables : the stock conservation rate,
anthropic pressure, and the number of empty vessels sent by sherman to the shery
Objective 4 : Provide microeconomic foundations to the global working of sheries, relying on explicit individual sherman prot
maximization

The shery

X : total sh Stock,

Y : harvested sh,

U : uncaught

sh

X =Y +U
V : total number of shing vessels,

E : empty vessels,

F:

vessels lled with sh

V =E+F

Each sherman owns a single vessel that can carry only a single (ton
of/school of) sh. It searches for sh and must nd an trading partner
(another sherman) to be able to earn Y units of sh.

Matching function
M (U; E) = mX = m(uX; eX)

u = U=X : conservation rate ; e = E=X : empty vessels

If the matching function is homogenous of degree 1 :

u
m ;1
e

q( )

(1)

with = e=u, anthropic pressure on the stock ; m : matching rate.

By construction of (1), the rate at which some sh is captured is
m(uX; eX)=uX = q( ) and the rate at which a sherman nds
some sh is m(uX; eX)=eX = q( ).

Steady state conservation rate

u = B(X)

q( )uX

B(X) natural growth function

q( ) the rate at which sh are found

Stationary condition (u = 0)
b(X)
u=
q( )

(2)

with b(X) = B(X)=X . Eq. (2) is the rst key equation of the
model (state equation).

Open access equilibrium

Present discounted values of expected prot from an empty vessel

and a full one :

VE = S"

Z T
0

Z T

VF = D"

rt

dt

rt

C" e

dt + Y " e

rT

rT

D"

S"

Z T +x
T

Z T +x
T

rt

rt

dt+ (Y+VE ) " e

dt+ (-C+VF ) " e

VE : Value of an empty vessel

C : catch cost

VF : Value of a full vessel

D : Distribution cost

S : Search cost

Y : Production value

r(T +x)

r(T +x)

Capital asset pricing equations (CAPM)

Fisherman decides whether to equip and send a vessel to sea or not

according :

rVE =

S +q( C

rVF =

D+

(Y

VE + VF )
VF + VE )

(3)
(4)

Setting VE = 0 in Eq. (3) and (4) and combining them leads to the
shermans net prot :
Y

14 +r
S + ( + r) C + D5 = 0
q( )

(5)

Open access equilibrium

With q ( ) = !

where ! :matching technology

OA

uOA =

2
6
4

d
B +r
@

s
d
+r

eOA =

31
7
5

d
+r

A
!C

11

b(X)

b(X)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Fishery equilibrium

SC : Stock Conservation ; VE : Vessel Entry

Sensitivity analysis
Table 1 : Comparative statics of stationary equilibrium

s c d !

r b(X)

c1

e1

The (SC) curve is decreasing and convex in the (u, e) space

The (VE) is linear and moves upward or downward, depending on
the number of vessels sent to sea
An increase in search and harvest costs, s and c, lowers the prot
expected from a full vessel

 An increase in natural growth improves the stock while also increasing expected prot
An increase in the conservation rate leads to a fall in anthropic
pressure
Table 2 shows how sensitive are harvesting costs to variations in
the stock size
.

10

Implications and Perspectives

Easily integrate other specic costs of sheries into the model

Undertake a calibration study and a wider empirical test of the
model
Study the dynamic properties of the model and strongly improve
its biological dimension with explicit stock dynamic and invesment
functions
Take into account variable search intensities and thus strategic interactions between shermen (game theory)
Study the possibility of multiple pareto ranked equilibria and potential coordination failures between shermen

11

Bibliography

1. Arnason, R., Hannesson, R., Schrank, W. (2000), Costs of sheries management : The cases of Iceland, Norway and Newfoundland, Marine Policy 24(3), 233-243.
2. Clark, C.W., Munro, G.R. (1975), The economics of shing and
modern capital theory : A simplied approach, Journal of Environmental economics and Management 2, 92-106.
3. Diamond, P. A. (1982), Aggregate Demand Management in Search
Equilibrium, Journal of Political Economy 90(5),881-894.
4. Gordon, H.S. (1954), The economic theory of a common property
resource : the shery, Journal of Political Economy 62, 124-142.
5. Mangel, M. (1985), Search Models in Fisheries and Agriculture,
Springer Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 61, 105-137.

6. Mortensen, D.T. (1987), Job search and labor market analysis,

Handbook of Labor Economics 15(2), 849-919.
7. Munro, G.R. (1992), Mathematical bioeconomics and the evolution of modern sheries economics, Bulletin of Mathematical
Biology 54(2/3), 163-184.
8. Pissarides, C. A. (2000), Equilibrium Unemployement Theory, Second edition, MIT Press, Cambridge.

Thank you for your attention

12

Questions-Answers
Open access equilibrium

Under open access equilibrium each sherman is free to send an empty

vessel to the sea and engages it in shing process. At equilibrium all
prot opportunities of additional empty vessel are exhausted, and
prot maximization suppose that sherman will send empty vessel at
sea until the additional value of an empty vessel equals zero.

World Conference on Natural Resource Modeling 2014

8th 11th July 2014 Vilnius (Lithuania)

Modeling the forest-wood chain sustainability at the local

scale: a study from Northern Italy

Speaker:
Natasha Nikodinoska

Co-authors:
Dr. Alessandro Paletto, Dr. Sandra Notaro, Michela Mattivi

Research aims
Develop a flexible procedure capable of investigating material

(biomass) and money flow along the forest-wood-bioenergy (FWB)

chain in mountain areas.

Individuate the main ecosystem services affected by the FWB chains

activities.

Investigate

stakeholders knowledge, opinions, and perception

regarding the actual and future patterns of the use of local wood for
bioenergy purposes.

Provide recommendations and alternative management strategies of

biomass based energy use to reduce negative impacts of ecosystem

services.

National and local energy agenda

Italy still largely dependent on foreign energy supplies (80% of the

total Italian demand).

To meet the EU energy targets (2009/29/EC) Italy is requested to use

renewable energy sources to cover 17% of gross final energy

consumption in 2020.

In its local energy agenda South Tyrol (Northern Italy) commits to

increase the energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction using

renewables up to 75% of the total energy sources by 2020 and about
90% by 2050.

Renewable energies in South Tyrol

Biomass based energy covers

about 17% of total renewable

energy in South Tyrol.

About 90% of the heat produced

Hydropower

Biomass

Solar thermal

Other

2%
3%
17%

in South Tyrol is provided by

wood based biomass.

Potential benefits of using

78%

biomass based energy:

Carbon-neutral

Enhance rural development

Enhances the forestry activities

Source: Bolzano Province (2013) Energy-South
Tyrol-2050.

Fig.1. Heat and electricity production by renewable

energy sources in GWh in 2009. Source: ASTAT
and TIS Innovation Park

Study area: Sarentino Valley

Total surface: 30,250 ha
Land use

Forests
Pastures
Unproductive
Agriculture land
Other vegetation
Urban areas
Water courses

Inhabitants:

45.8%
26.4%
11.4%
8.7%
6.6%
0.7%
0.4%

6,900 people
Density: 23 people/km2

Forest-wood chain
Number of forest owners:

595 private forest owners with 23 ha average forest area

Forest management:
Close-to-nature management with selective cuttings
Total forest reserves. 3.2 M m3
Annual increment: 51,239 m3/year
Annual wood extraction: 32,000 m3/year (around 62% of the annual

increment)

75% is used for timber industry

25% is used for energy purposes mainly in the valley.

Bioenergy production
Main biomass feedstock in the
district heating plant (DHP):
Wood from forestry operation (99%)
Wood residues from local timber industry

(1%)

Annual biomass provision:

7,200 m3 of woodchips provided by an

average of 80 forest owners. Wood from

locally available and PEFC-certified forests
is used.

Annual heat production:

9 Million kWh of heat supplying 53% of the

buildings in the three most populated

hamlets of the valley (as of 2013).

Proposed framework
Baseline scenario
of wood biomass
for bioenergy

Stakeholders
perceptions on the
forest-woodbioenegry chain

Results and
alternative
scenarios

Literature review
Site-speficic data collection
Expert interview

SWOT-AHP analysis
Ecosystem services trade-off analysis

Perception map of the current wood biomass use for energy production
Alternative scenarios and management strategies

Survey design
Semi-structured questionnaire divided in four main sections:
First section: opinions on the environmental impacts of increased wood extraction
Second section: assess relative importance of each element in the SWOT category

using pairwise comparison.

Third section: selection of the best management strategy for wood provision
Fourth section: personal information of the interviewee.

Administrated face-to-face to four groups of stakeholders:

FWB chain (forest owners, forest enterprises, chipping companies, DHP)
NGOs (Environmental association, Hunting and fishing organisation)

Government (Department of mountain economics, Environmental protection,

Sarentino Forest Unit, Sarentino Tourism Promotion Agency)

Academia (University and research institutes).

SWOT-AHP framework
SWOT analysis is a qualitative planning method used to identify

internal strengths and weaknesses along with external opportunities

and threats for any process (organization, project, individual) in a
structured way.

It is combined with AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), which

quanties the relative importance of each factor identied within and

among the SWOT categories. (Krutilla et al. 2000, Kangas et al. 2001, Catron et al. 2013).

The relative priority of each factor present within a SWOT category is

computed using the eigenvalue method (Dwivedi and Alavalapati 2009).

SWOT of the FWB chain in the Sarentino

Valley
Weaknesses

Strengths
1.
2.
3.

Use of local wood for bioenergy purposes

Additional income over time for private forest
owners
Major propensity for collaboration between the
actors along the FWB chain

1.
2.
3.

Opportunities
1.

2.

3.

Continuity of this wood-bioenergy will maintain

active forest management in line with
traditional practices.
Major use of wood residues of the local timber
industry to increase the efficiency of wood use
along the FWB chain.
Develop of shared forest management
strategies among small forest owners.

High wood extraction and transport costs

High transactional costs for the DHP to
ensure local biomass availability
Absence of standards on the biomass
quality (moisture and size) on regional level.

Threats
1.

2.

3.

Upgrading of the DHP (co-generation) could

increase wood biomass demand and wood
biomass extraction followed by major
environmental negative impacts.
High presence of regional funding could
distort economically sustainable wood
extraction.
Possible interruption in energy provision.

Ecosystem services trade-off

Four ecosystem services were selected:
Carbon sequestration
Tourism and recreation
Natural hazards protection
Biodiversity and nature conservation

The environmental impact of the actual bioenergy chain strategy on

each of the selected ecosystem services was investigated using 5point Likert scale.

Comparison

between baseline and two

management strategies (< 60% and > 65%).

alternative

forest

Preliminary results: material and money flow

Sample forest owners (average values):

Surface
(ha)
Wood extraction (m3)
Wood for bioenergy (m3)
Forest species used:
Norway spruce
European larch
Other

68.4 (St.dev.=61.0)
275 (St.dev.=215.24)
99.3 (St.dev.=85.9)
85%
12%
3%

Average cost for wood provision for bioenergy purposes

Wood extraction and landing operation
using tractors and winch
Wood extraction and landing operation
using cable crane
Chipping

28-30 / m3

Transport to DHP

3 / m3

37-40 / m3

3.5 5 / m3

Preliminary results: Money flow

Income of the private forest owners:
Woodchips sold to the DHP

65 / m3

Timber sold to sawmills:

Norway spruce
European larch

90-100/m3
110-120/m3

District heating plant:

Purchase price of the woodchip

Average price charged to the local

users of heat

59.20 /m3 if moisture>50%

66.56 /m3if moisture within 30%-50%
71.03 /m3 if moisture < 30%

0.10-0.13 /kWh

SWOT results
SWOT categories and factors
Strenghts
Use of local wood for bioenergy purposes
Additional income over time for forest owners
Major propensity for collaboration between the actors along the wood
chain
Weaknesses
High extraction and transport costs
High transactional costs for the district plant to ensure local biomass
availability
Absence of uniformed controls on the wood humidity on regional
level.
Opportunities
Continuity of this wood-bioenergy will maintain active forest
management in line with traditional practices.
Major use of wood waste of the local timber industry to increase the
efficiency of wood use along the chain.
Develop of shared forest management strategies of small forest
owners.
Threats
Upgrading of the district heating plant (co-generation) could increase
wood biomass demand and consequently wood biomass extraction
followed by major environmental concerns.
High presence of regional funding could distort economically
sustainable wood extraction.

Possible energy provision interruption.

Global priorities
for forest
owners
0.059
0.179
0.179
0.049

0.030
0.041

0.146
0.093
0.121

0.034
0.040

0.026

Stakeholders perception map

0.3

W1 High wood extraction

and transport costs

0.2

S2 Use of local wood

W3 Absence of
standards on the biomass
quality (moisture and size)
on regional level.

S3 Additional income for

the forest owners

0.1

W2 High transactional
costs for the heating
district plant to ensure
local biomass availability

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

O3 Develop of shared forest

management strategies of small
forest owners.

O1 Continuity of
active forest

S1 Major propensity for

collaboration between the
actors along the FWB chain

0.1

0.2

T2 High presence of regional

funding could distort
economically sustainable
wood extraction

-0.1

T1 Negative environmental
impacts due to increased
wood extraction

O2 Major use of wood

residues of the local
timber industry

T3 Possible interruption in
energy provision.

-0.2

-0.3
S1

S2

S3

W1

W2

W3

O1

O2

O3

T1

T2

T3

0.3

Ecosystem services trade-off

Preliminary results suggest:
Potential negative impacts on carbon sequestration in case increase

of wood extraction.

It is preferred to continue with the current forest strategy, close-to-

nature management or to slightly increase the wood extraction rate.

In line with previous regional studies that suggest increase up to 96%

of the annual increment in the valley (hydrogeological protection, 4%).

Conclusions
The results of SWOT-AHP analysis indicate positive

attitudes of local stakeholders towards FWB chains

activities.

Possibility to use such study design as starting point in a

potential participatory planning process.

Future research: integrate GIS-based method with

biomass and money flow.

Thank you for the attention!

Dkoju u dmes!
Contacts:
E-mail:
natasha.nikodinoska@uniparthenope.it

Sample of the pairwise comparison

Category WEAKNESSES
Level of comparison
Factors

Very
strong

Strong

Moderate

Equal

Moderate

Strong

Very
strong

Factors

High extraction and

transport cost for the
forest owners

High transactional costs

for the district plant to
ensure local biomass
availability

High extraction and

transport cost for the
forest owners

Absence of uniformed
controls on the wood
humidity on regional
level.

High transactional
costs for the district
plant to ensure local
biomass availability

Absence of uniformed
controls on the wood
humidity on regional
level.

Uniwersytet Warmisko-Mazurski w Olsztynie

Faculty of Environmental Management and Agriculture
Department of Land Reclamation and Environmental Management
Plac dzki 2, Olsztyn, Poland
e-mail: timofte.cristinamaria@gmail.com

Cristina Maria Timofte

GIS-BASED HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING

FOR ESTIMATION OF WATER RESOURCES
OF FLOODPLAIN LAKES

2014 July 8-11 ,Vilnius, Lithuania

Modeling our way back to the future World Conference on Natural Resource Modeling 2014

Overview
Introduction
Aim and objectives
Area and objects of research
GIS data processing
MIKE 11 modellling
Analysis of hydrological
Results
Conclusions
Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

The aim of the study

Floodplain lakes require the
maintenance of their natural riverdepended hydrological regime to
retain their natural values as habitats
for biodiversity development and
ecosystem productivity. Nowadays,
the lakes belong to the most rapidly
degrading and disappearing
ecosystems due to e.g. construction
of water infrastructure and increasing
water withdrawals by humans.
The overall aim of the presented
project is the definition of the
dynamics of water and the migration
of water circulating within the
meandering river floodplain.

Natural section of the Drwca River

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Oxbow lakes ....

are an important part of river
valleys, and these are important
ecological corridors and are refuges
of life for many organisms.
The Water Framework Directive and
the EU Habitats Directive (Natura
2000) pay particular attention to
the protection of river valleys along
with the oxbows
(habitat code 3150)

Fot: K. Gliska-Lewczuk

Study site and methodology

Catchment area: 5 343,5 km2
Length of the river: 207,2 km
Spring: Drwck, altitude 191 m a.s.l.
Outflow: Wisa, Zotoria Torun-; 36,6 m
a.s.l.
Average slope: 0.75
Important lakes:
Jeziorak (3219.0 ha),
Drwckie (914.4 ha),
Szelg Wlk. (668.0 ha),
Pauzeskie (235.6 ha),

Drwca River Basin

Jeziorak.
Drwckie

Nowe
Miasto
Lub.

Main tributaries:

Right hand:
Grabiczek, Gizela, Elszka, Wel,
Brynica, Rypienica, Struga
Dobrzyska, Ruziec, Jordan

TORU

Left hand:
Iawka, Skarlanka, Struga
Brodnicka, Kujawska,Wbrzeska,
Kowalewska, Rychnowska;
Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

10 km

Ostrda

Study objects and available data

Daily time series Q, H Institute of Meteorology
and Water Management
Oxbow -Bratian

Length of study river

sector = 68 km

Oxbow -Jajkowo

Modeling our way back to the future,

Vilnius 2014

Formation of oxbow lakes Drwca

www.geoportal.gov.pl/2012

Fot. K. Gliska-Lewczuk, 2005

www.geoportal.gov.pl/2013
Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

GIS raw data processing

Raw GIS Data

Flow
Direction

Flow
Accumulation

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Water shed
delineation

MIKE 11 software modelling

MIKE 11 (1D) software package is developed by Danish
Hydraulic Institute (DHI) for simulation of flow, sediment
transport and water quality in estuaries, river, irrigation
system and similar water bodies
User - friendly tool for design, management and operation
of river basins and channel networks
Use model - HD - hydrodynamic - simulation of unsteady
flow in a network of open channels. Result is time series
of discharges and water levels;

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

de Saint Venant Equations

Mass and Momentum Conservation:
Q A

q
x t
Q2

A
Q
gA h gQ Q 0

t
x
x C 2 AR
where:
x [m] is the distance along the channel;
t [s] is the time,

Q [m3 s-1] is the discharge;

A [m2] wetted area; q [m2s-1] lateral flow per unit length;
h [m] depth above datum;
C [m1/2s-1] Chezy resistance coefficient;
R [m] hydraulic radius;
a momentum distribution coefficient and g [ms2] is the acceleration due to gravity.
Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Model input data

Variables and assumptions
Variables
two independent (x, t)
two dependent (Q, h)
Conditions for solution
2 point initial (Q, h)
1 point up/downstream
h
Q
Assumptions
Constant Density
Small Bed Slope
Uniform Velocity over the Cross Section
Flow everywhere is parallel to the bottom
Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Model Setup

Fig. 2. Chainage 0
(Rodzone), Q timeserie

Fig. 4. Cross sections at

different chainages

Fig. 3. Mike 11 stream network input

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Fig .3. Chainage 68.9,

(Brodnica), H timeserie

Calibration and results

Calibration of the model must be performed by adjusting Manning numbers and comparing
results to measured timeseries.
In our case we reached a satisfactory calibration at:
Manning N value = 27 m1/3/s

Rodzone gauge IMGW

R=0.933

Bank full level

Measured

Simulated

Bratian data logger

R=0.928
Bank full level

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Drwca floodplain in Bratian

Bratian village at high water level

Bratian at low water level

Oxbows connection at an average

water level based on simulated WL

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Conclusions

Mike 11 appears an useful tool in estimation of flood occurrence and floodplain

lake connectivity with the river channel. Our results shows the advantage of MIKE
11 in the estimation of the length of the hydrological connectivity periods as key
factors in ecosystem development.
The simulation of water levels and discharges with a 1-dimensional hydrodynamic
model along 68 km Drweca river sector followed trends and magnitudes obtained
with field measuments and observations.
The GIS technology has the ability to capture, store, manipulate, analyze, and
visualize the georeferenced data. Using GIS software and tools in order to
determine the location of oxbow lakes and meander scars facilitates the digitizing
of the research area.
Based on our results we recommend integrated GIS MIKE 11 tool in ecological
studies. The conducted search provides the hydrodynamic behavior of the river
stream which can be a useful information for further analysis regarding the oxbow
lakes formation.

Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Cristina Maria Timofte

Uniwersytet Warmisko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
Faculty of Environmental Management and Agriculture
Department of Land Reclamation and Environmental Management
Plac dzki 2, Olsztyn, Poland
e-mail: timofte.cristinamaria@gmail.com
Modeling our way back to the future, Vilnius 2014

Wolf and Elk Management in a

Spatial Predator-Prey Ecosystem

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

David Aadland
David Finnoff
Jacob Hochard
Charles Sims

U. of Wyoming
U. of Wyoming
U. of Wyoming
U. of Tennessee

Background
Wolf reintroduction into Yellowstone National Park

(94-95).
Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Background

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

April 14, 2011: Gray wolves (Canis lupus) lost federal

Endangered Species Act (ESA) protection in Montana,

Idaho, Washington, Oregon and Utah.
August 31, 2012: Gray wolves lost protection in Wyoming.
New era of state-level management complicated by

competing transboundary ecosystem services (viewing and

hunting).
Provisioning of those services are sensitive to landscape

heterogeneity and various forms of management.

Research questions:

Background

Simulation

. How does the spatial allocation and quantity of a

reintroduction shape subsequent predator-prey population
dynamics and provisioning of ecosystem services?

Modeling
annex

Research
questions
Model

. What implications does a refuge (national park) have on

harvest management?
. How does landscape heterogeneity, through its effect on
predation risk, affect management decisions?

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model

Spatial (4x4 grid) Lotka-Volterra model with logistic elk

growth and a predator-dependent functional response.

Wolves and elk are hunted outside of YNP.

Simulation
Modeling
annex

Wolves and elk disperse following density-dependent forces

using queen movement.

Livestock are continually restocked to maintain constant

outer-cell population levels.

Wolf-elk predator-dependent functional response

augmented by resource selection function.

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

RSF Landscape effects on predation risk

(from Kauffman et al. 2007):
Elk density.
Wolf density.
Distance to streams and roads

(Euclidean distance calculations).

Type of land cover (grassland, shrubs, forest, etc.).
Slope.
Snowfall.

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).
Kauffman et al. (2007) (30m x 30m)

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Our predation risk (30m x 30m)

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).
Our predation risk (30m x 30m)

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

A spatial wolf-elk-livestock model of the

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Background
Research
questions
Model

Dispersion following Queen Contiguity:

Elk:

Simulation

Move away from high predation and hunting risk.

Modeling
annex

Move towards better forage.

Wolves:
Move away from hunting risk & intraspecific strife.
Move towards elk, livestock & high predation success cells.

Simulation: One-time shock

Background
Research
questions
Model

Wolf population in the top-left cell is shocked from 20

down to 5 (disease, hunting, etc.).

Simulation
Modeling
annex

Shock occurs only in initial period.

Population effects are shown across time (50 years) and

space (4 x 4 grid).

Simulation: Resulting elk and wolf population

dynamics.
Left vertical = wolves (solid), right vertical = elk (dashed).

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Simulation: Resulting elk population dispersal.

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Simulation: Resulting wolf population dispersal.

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Implications of model for policy recommendations

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Analyze direct and indirect effects of population shocks at

varying scales (local & global).

Allows us to analyze how competing ecosystem services

(i.e. hunting and wildlife viewing) are influenced by

management across space and time.
Evaluate the effects of spatial heterogeneity (i.e.

landscape features that form predation risk) and

management jurisdictions (i.e. YNP as a refuge) on
optimal wildlife management.

Model reference: elk and wolf laws of motion.

(i,j)

(i,j)

(i,j)

(i,j)

hE ,t

(i,j)

hW ,t

Et,pre = (1 + gE ,t pE ,t )Et
Background

(i,j)

(i,j)

Wt,pre = (1 + gW ,t dW )Wt

Research
questions

(i,j)

Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

pre = Pre-dispersal state variable

(i,j)

gE ,t = Rate of growth of elk.

(i,j)

gW ,t = Rate of growth of wolves.

(i,j)

pE ,t = Predation rate of wolves on elk.

dW = Natural death rate of wolves.
(i,j)

hE ,t = Elk harvest.
(i,j)

hW ,t = Wolf harvest.

(i,j)

Model reference: elk and wolf growth rates.

(
(i,j)
gE ,t

Background
Research
questions

(i,j)

Model

gW ,t =

Simulation

= rE

(i,j)

Et

(i,j)

KE

(
)
(i,j) (i,j)
(i,j) (i,j)
pE ,t Et + pL,t Lt
(i,j)

Wt

Modeling
annex

(i,j)

gE ,t = Elk growth rate.

(i,j)
gW ,t = Wolf growth rate.
rE = Elk intrinsic growth rate.
(i,j)
KE
= Elk carrying capacity.
= Scale parameter ( > 0).
(i,j)

pE ,t = Predation rate of wolves on elk.

(i,j)

pL,t = Predation rate of wolves on livestock.

Model reference: elk and wolf predation risk.

(i,j)

Background

(i,j)
pE ,t

Research
questions

Model

(i,j)

Et
(i,j)

Simulation

(i,j)

pL,t =

Modeling
annex

(i,j)

FE ,t Wt

(i,j)

FL,t Wt
(i,j)

Lt

(i,j)

FE ,t = Wolf functional response to elk.

(i,j)

FL,t

= Wolf functional response to livestock.

Model reference: functional responses.

Background
Research
questions

(i,j)

FE ,t

Model
Simulation

Predator-dependent
functional response

}|
{
(i,j)
aEt
)
=(
(i,j) m
(i,j)
Wt
+ ahEt
(i,j)

(i,j)

FL,t = FL

Modeling
annex

a = Attack rate.
h = Handling rate.
m = Degree of predator interference.
(i,j)

FL

= Cell specific restocking constant.

m = 1.171. When m = 0 Holling type-II; m = 1 ratio-dependent.

Model reference: combining functional response

with spatial risk of predation.
(
)
[
]
RSF x (i,j) = Exp x (i,j)
Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation

Spatial functional
response

z
}| (
){
(i,j)
(i,j)
(i,j)

FE ,t = FE ,t RSF x

Modeling
annex

RSF = Resource selection function.

x (i,j) = Vector of landscape covariates.
= Vector of landscape risk coefficients.
When = 0, no landscaped-induced risk, collapses to traditional
functional response.

Model reference: wolves combined law of motion.

Background
Research
questions
Model

Simulation
Modeling
annex

(i,j)

(i,j)

Wt,pre Wt

Recruitment

{
( }| )
(i,j)
aEt RSF x (i,j)
(i,j)
(i,j)
(i,j)
(i,j)
)m
= [ (
+FL,t ]Wt dw Wt hW ,t
(i,j)
(i,j)
|
{z
}
Wt
+ ahEt
Natural and
|
{z
}
harvest-based
Spatial
functional
response

mortality

Model reference: dispersal across cells.

Background
Research
questions

Residence
rates

z }| {
(i,j)(i,j)
(i,j)
species,t = 1 exp(species species species,t )

Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

(i,j)(i,j)

species,t

= Probability an individual for a given species

remains in the same cell.

species = Fixed dispersal.

(i,j)

species,t = Variable dispersal.

species = Relative strength of variable dispersal.

Model reference: variable dispersal of wolves and

elk.

Background

Repelled away from elk,

risk of predation
and hunting

Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

(i,j)

W ,t

}|
{
z
(i,j)
(i,j)
(i,j)
(i,j)
E ,t = Et,pre pE ,t hE ,t
Attracted to livestock,

Repelled away from

elk and favorable

hunting
predation.
zwolves and
z
}|
{
}|
{

(i,j) (i,j) (i,j) (i,j) (i,j)

+
E

h
p

+
L
= W
+

t,pre
t
t,pre
W ,t

E ,t

Model reference: parameters.

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

m = predator interference = 1.171.

E = elk variable dispersal = 1
W = wolf variable dispersal = 1
h = 0.045 = handling rate (Garrott et al. 2007).
1
dW = 14
= natural death rate for wolves.
r = 0.28 = intrinsic rate of growth for elk.

Model reference: restrictions & calibrated

parameters.
Restrictions:
Background
Research
questions

pL = 0.01 = Average livestock predation rate.

E = 0.95 = Portion of elk not migrating per period.

Model

W = 0.95 = Portion of wolves not migrating per period.

Simulation

GYE = 35, 000 = Number of elk in GYE.

Modeling
annex

GYW = 463 = Number of wolves in GYE.

Calibrated parameters:
= 0.03 = Scale parameter on wolf growth.
FL = 3.17 = Constant wolf-livestock functional response.
a = 0.07 = Attack rate.
c0 = 5.78 = Elk fixed-dispersal.
d0 = 2.04 = Wolf fixed-dispersal parameter.

Combining functional response

and resource selection: a scaling effect.

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Background

Background
Research
questions
Model
Simulation
Modeling
annex

Tourism attributed to YNP wolves generates $35 million

expenditures annually in Wyoming (Duffield et al. 2006).

In 2005, 44% of YNP visitors listed wolves as their most

preferred species to view. Approximately 30% of visitors

saw a wolf (Duffield et al. 2008).
In 2005, 14% of YNP visitors listed elk as their most

preferred species to view. Between 85-93% of visitors saw

elk (Duffield et al. 2008).
Annually, hunting generates approximately $132 million of

in-state expenditure (Wyoming Game and Fish, 2013).

Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into

complex fisheries economic models for management evaluation:
The North Sea saithe fishery as a case study
Sarah Simons, H. Bartelings , K. Hamon, A. Kempf, R. Dring, A. Temming

Name des WissenschaftlersWorld Conference on Natural

Resource Modeling 2014

Vilnius, 8th 11th July 2014

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Why integrating?

BIOLOGY
Page 2
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Progress

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Progress

FISHRENT: bio-economic optimisation and simulation model

Page 3
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on Natural Resource Modeling 2014
Titel
der
Veranstaltung
Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Progress

Age-structured population dynamics

Age-structure
plus group with fish of 10 and
older

Time

Annual time step

Modeling period of 15 years

Stochastic stock-recruitment rel.

=

2
(0.5 )
+

Individual growth
= 1 (0

,
1,1

Fishing Fleets

Instantaneous natural mortality

Page 4
09.07.2014

North Sea & Skagerrak as one

area

Instantaneous fishing mortality

, = ln

Space

NameConference
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Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

6 European fleets

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Modelling steps

Page 5
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on Natural Resource Modeling 2014
Titel
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Veranstaltung
Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Conclusion

Progress

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

The link between biology and economy

=
= 0.6

= 0.4

Catch

Non-linearity effort and catch:

Crowding (Gillis 2003; Rijnsdorp 2000)

Non-linearity stock and catch:

Concentrations (Eide et al. 2003; Casini et al. 2005)
Take caution with values for exponents !!!

Page 6
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Progress

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Progress

Long-term management plan for North Sea saithe

ICES Advice 2012, Book 6

Page 7
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Name des
Wissenschaftlers
World
Conference
on Natural Resource Modeling 2014
Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Progress

Evaluating the performance of the current HCR

Biological changes

Variable
recruitment

Harvest Control Rule

1. Scenario (HCRBlim)

TAC change = 15% if SSB 106 000 tons (Blim)

TAC change > 15% if SSB < 106 000 tons (Blim)

2. Scenario (HCRBpa)

TAC change = 15% if SSB 200 000 tons (Bpa)

TAC change > 15% if SSB < 200 000 tons (Bpa)

Economic costs
3. Scenario

Page 8
09.07.2014

Unrestricted fishery: only driven by

optimizing net profits of whole fleet

NameConference
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Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Progress

The spawning stock

500
400
300
200
100
0

Bpa

Year
Year

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Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

Blim
2007

SSB ('000 tons)

Unrestricted
HCR
HCRBlim
fishery
Bpa

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Conclusion

Progress

Costs and benefits

Net Profit

Change relative to the

unrestricted fishery

100%

Mid-term

Crew wages

Long-term

Mid-term

Long-term

Fleet size
Mid-term

Long-term

SSB > Bpa

Mid-term

80%

80%
60%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
1%

0%
-20%

-5%
-17%-21%

-6%
-12%
-16%
-21%

-9%-11%-9%-11%

-40%

Page 10
09.07.2014

Long-term

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Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

What can we conclude ?

Strong integration of biology and economy

Provides helpful indicators

Allows simulating changes in biology (e.g. stock

productivity), economy (e.g. fuel/fish prices) and/or
policy (alternative management strategies)

Page 11
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Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Conclusion

Progress

Introduction

Modeling Approach

Case study

Results

Progress
Model:

Higher spatial (ICES Rectangle) and temporal

(monthly) resolution

Species seasonal migrations to feeding and

spawning grounds & dispersal

Applications:

Discard prevention strategies by varing spatial

overlap of species

Temporal area closures

Page 12
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Veranstaltung
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Conclusion

Progress

References
Casini, M., Cardinale, M., Hjelm, J., and Vitale, F. 2005. Trends in cpue and related changes in spatial
distribution of demersal fish species in the Kattegat and Skagerrak, eastern North Sea, between 1981 and
2003. Ices Journal of Marine Science, 62: 671-682.

Eide, A., Skjold, F., Olsen, F., and Flaten, O. 2003. Harvest Functions: The Norwegian Bottom Trawl Cod
Fisheries. Marine Resource Economics, 18: 81-94.

Gillis, D. M. 2003. Ideal free distributions in fleet dynamics: a behavioral perspective on vessel movement
in fisheries analysis. Canadian Journal of Zoology-Revue Canadienne De Zoologie, 81: 177-187.

ICES 2012. Report of the Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and
Skagerrak (WGNSSK). ICES Document, CM/ACOM: 13.

Statistisches Bundesamt 2012/2013. Verdienste und Arbeitskosten. Artikelnummer: 5622102129004

Rijnsdorp, A. D., Dol, W., Hoyer, M., and Pastoors, M. A. 2000. Effects of fishing power and competitive
interactions among vessels on the effort allocation on the trip level of the Dutch beam trawl fleet. Ices
Journal of Marine Science, 57: 927-937

Page 13
09.07.2014

NameConference
des Wissenschaftlers
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on Natural Resource Modeling 2014
Titel
der
Veranstaltung
Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Thanks for your attention !!!

Page 14
09.07.2014

NameConference
des Wissenschaftlers
World
on Natural Resource Modeling 2014
Titel
der
Veranstaltung
Sarah Simons (sarah.simons@ti.bund.de)

Escape or fight?
Strategy of prolonged dormancy in variable
environments
Kirsi Alahuhta1, Anne Jklniemi2, Juha Tuomi1
1Department of Biology, University of Oulu, Finland, 2Finnish
Forest and Park Service, Kuusamo, Finland
kirsi.alahuhta@oulu.fi

Strategy of prolonged dormancy in

variable environments

Calypso bulbosa

Open population capture-recapture

models
Captured and
marked in year t
1

Survived from
year t to t+1

Sprouting in
year t+1
11
Dormant in
year t+1
10
Dead
10

(Shefferson et al.2001)

F
V
D

(Kry, Gregg & Schaub 2005)

Multistate capture
recapture models

Generalized linear models

Flowered in
year t

Survived from
year t to t+1

Sprouting in
year t+1

Dormant in
year t+1

(Gremer, Crone & Lesica 2012)

Flowering in
year t+1

Non-flowering
in year t+1

References
Gremer, J. R., Crone, E. E. & Lesica, P. 2012: Are dormant plants hedging their bets?
Demographic consequences of prolonged dormancy in variable environments.
American Naturalist 179(3): 315-327.
Kry, M., Gregg, K. B. & Schaub, M. 2005: Demographic estimation methods for
plants with unobservable life-states. Oikos 108(2): 307-320
Reintal, M., Tali, K., Haldna, M. & Kull, T. 2010: Habitat preferences as related to the
prolonged dormancy of perennial herbs and ferns. Plant Ecology 210(1): 111-123.
Shefferson, R. P. 2009: The evolutionary ecology of vegetative dormancy in mature
herbaceous perennial plants. Journal of Ecology 97(5): 1000-1009.
Shefferson, R. P., Sandercock, B. K., Proper, J., Beissinger, S. B. 2001: Estimating
dormancy and survival of a rare herbaceous perennial using mark-recapture
models. Ecology, 82(1): 145-156.

Comparison of assessment methods for data-poor

stocks: Case study of Greenland halibut offshore West
Greenland
Anna Chrysafi, University of Helsinki, FEM Group

Greenland halibut fishery in west Greenland has many low

quality data poor data or data poor
Traditional assessment methods are incompatible with the
data
Data poor stock assessment - what methods to use?
Application of three different types of assessment methods
Outcomes very uncertain
Future direction: Bayesian Hierarchical stock assessment

www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto

10.2.2015

Whitefish in Lake Oulujarvi:

how many and why?
Egl Jakubaviit, Lithuanian Nature Research Centre

Dynamics (1974 2007)

120

SSB

Explanatory factors
2

100

80

60

40

20

1974

1980

1986

1992

1998

2004

1.

Predators

Pikeperch (stocked!)

Perch

Pike

Burbot

2.

Competitors - vendace

3.

Stockings of northern densely

rakered whitefish

4.

Roach

5.

Water level amplitude

6.

Growth season temperature

Fisheries management clear objectives and consideration of more factors

METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF ENERGY

AUDIT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute,
Institute of Energy Saving and Energy Management
Trachuk Andrii post-graduate student
Research Advisor Rosen Victor Petrovich , Professor,
Doctor of technical sciences, Head of the Department of Automation
Management of Electro Technical Complexes

Industrial enterprises of Ukraine are powerful consumers of

fuel-energy resources (FER). Therefore, the reduction of fuel
consumption values, as well as improving the efficiency of their
use are important tasks today.
More efficient use of energy resources can be achieved in the
following areas:
organizational and technical measures in general factory
power supply systems of industrial enterprises;
reduction of losses in energy-consuming technological and
auxiliary equipment by optimizing the power saving mode;
reduction of losses in energy-consuming technological and
auxiliary equipment by repairing and upgrading equipment.

Regardless of the chosen direction of efficiency of energy resources,

for any industrial enterprise (object) it is advisable to carry out an energy
audit of the object. Energy Audit (EA) is a necessary step and an integral
part of a package of measures aimed at improving the efficient use of
energy resources.
Energy audit - an independent process designed documented
examination, evaluation of energy saving potential and efficiency of use
of energy resources object, and to develop recommendations to the
effective use of energy resources with performance specifications, quality
requirements, health and the environment.
The main purpose is to promote the EA enterprise management in
determining the energy-saving potential, sources and magnitudes of
irrational use of energy resources (such as the technology, and the
needs), the development of energy conservation measures, their
technical and economic evaluation and assessment of their impact on
the environment.

Tasks of EA are:
definition of the general condition of the company, its main
business units and processes as consumers of energy resources;
analysis of fuel consumption separately for each type;
analysis of fuel consumption in energy-technological systems,
processes and entities;
analysis of the flow of energy resources on the subject of EA;
analysis of the flow of funds to the FER in the cost of production;
assessment of the potential of energy saving EA object;
assessment of the effectiveness of use of FER;
Analysis of energy intensity;
Analysis of the share of fuel consumption and comparison with
applicable standards and regulations, preparation of proposals on
account of their descent;
assessment of the functioning of the EMS;
make recommendations to the account of energy conservation
measures with their feasibility study;

Energy audit is based on the following principles:

probability of energy auditing and completeness of information;
scientific validity / objectivity and legitimacy EA results and
recommendations for energy conservation;
confidentiality of the information received;
the complexity of evaluating the effectiveness of fuel consumption;
independence of energy auditors and energy auditing companies in
their implementation of energy auditing activities;
competence and objectivity of energy auditors and energy auditing
companies in their implementation of energy auditing activities;
registered world-class scientific and technological progress, technical
standards and regulations and environmental safety standards
requirements and international agreements;
Compliance with EA subjects for the organization, conduct, and
quality energy audit.

The main stages of the EA are:

1. The pre-contractual stage involves a meeting between the
Contractor and the Customer, the Contractor familiarity with the
subject EA, energy auditors visit object, obtaining primary data,
analysis and development of a plan of EA. 2. Organizational and
preparatory step involves coordination plan and schedule with EA
customer, signing a contract to perform EA identification of persons
by the Customer to assist energy auditors, training auditorskih groups
form of punishment for the enterprise.
3. Stage collect information includes familiarization with
documentary information and measurements on site.
4. Stage processing and analysis includes the analysis of the
functioning of the EMS implementation, results analysis, evaluation
of energy saving potential and the main technical and economic
indicators of efficiency of use of energy resources.

5. Development phase includes recommendations on energy

efficiency and the development of technical and economic evaluation
of the effectiveness of the priority list of energy-saving measures and
technologies.
6. Stage of report includes preparation of the report on the results of
the EA.
7. Stage presentation of the results includes a handover report and
making presentations to the Customer the main result of EA.
Gathering information about EA should include familiarization with
documentary information on the state of enterprise energy
management, as well as the necessary measurements.

Information about EA should be collected and grouped in the

following areas:
power supply system;
heating system;
fuel supply system;
compressed air supply system;
ventilation system, air heating and air conditioning;
water supply and sanitation;
cooling system;
lighting system;
energy-intensive consumers of the process;
- Electrothermal installation;
- Power output exceeding 100 kW;
- Other consumers;
buildings and structures;
accounting and control system of fuel consumption;
energy management system;
other systems.

In step processing and analysis of the object must EA:

define:
- Loss of energy resources;
- Specific loss FER;
- Potential for energy savings;
- Key energy and economic indicators of the company, etc. build:
- Energy flow diagram of production;
- Map of fuel consumption;
- Graphics of fuel consumption for certain time periods (day,
month, quarter, year, etc.);
- Graphics dynamics of specific primary energy consumption;
- Analytical and synthetic fuel and energy balances;
- Causal diagram of factors that affect the efficiency of the use of
energy resources, etc.; analyze:
- Factors that affect the efficiency of the use of energy resources;
- Balance of fuel consumption;
- Specific consumption of fuel and energy resources;
- Loss of FER;

- The existing rules and regulations on the use of energy resources;

- Dynamics and efficiency level achieved FER;
- Options for enterprise FER for financial and environmental criteria;
- Major energy - economic performance of the enterprise;
- Technical and economic progress by increasing the efficiency of use
of energy resources;
-The functioning of the EMS.
Analysis of information about EA should be conducted in the
following areas:
analysis of the factors. That affect the efficiency of the use of energy
resources;
analysis of the dynamics and the achieved level of efficiency of
energy resources;
Analysis of options for industrial enterprise FER for financial and
environmental criteria; analysis of energy balances and specific
consumption of energy resources;
analysis of existing rules and regulations on the use of energy
resources;

 Identify and analyze - the main energy - economic indicators of

industrial enterprises;
analysis of the technical and economic results achieved by improving
the efficiency of use of energy resources;
Depending on the direction of analysis should be used such tools for
analysis of information:
To analyze factors. That affect the efficiency of the use of
energy resources: causal diagram ;
Pareto charts ;
histogram ;
Methods of correlation analysis ;
index method balanced diagram ;
expert evaluation methods (functional-cost analysis method,
hierarchies, the method of paired comparisons, etc.) ;
methods of regression analysis;
time series ;
checklists ;
scatter diagrams, etc.

For the analysis of options for industrial enterprise FER for

financial and environmental criteria:
energy-technological process flow diagram;
maps of fuel consumption;
tree-like diagram ;
balanced diagram ;
optimization methods (methods of linear and nonlinear
programming), etc.;
For the analysis of the existing rules and regulations on the
use of energy resources:
calculations, models;
methods of comparative analysis ;
balanced diagram , etc.

For the analysis of the main energy-economic indices of the

(specific consumption of energy resources, energy intensity and
energy saving potential for certain types of energy resources and
facilities);
index method ;
histogram ;
checklists ;
scatter diagrams ;
Comparative analysis methods (Methods of absolute and
relative differences), etc.
To analyze the technical and economic progress by
increasing the efficiency of energy resources:
index method ;
methods of financial and economic analysis (payback period,
internal rate of return, net present profits, etc.);
methods of comparative analysis, etc.

CONCLUSIONS
To determine the effectiveness of the use of energy resources in
an industrial enterprise conducted an energy audit.
To improve the accuracy and objectivity of the analysis of
the results of the energy audit is necessary to develop appropriate
algorithms for data collection, processing and analysis of
information about energy audits.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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8000,00

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6000,00
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2000,00

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2000
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500
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0

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10000

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20000

25000

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30000

35000

40000

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. 3.17.
-1 2004

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

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R2 = 0,4579

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

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. 3.19.
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180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

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5000

10000

15000

20000

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25000

30000

35000

40000

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2004

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600
500
400
300
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2000

4000

6000
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8000

10000

12000

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2004

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

y = -0,0011x + 617,53
2

R = 0,1955

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000

, .