Professional Documents
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Introduction To Weather Forecasting
Introduction To Weather Forecasting
Email: ibrooks@env.leeds.ac.uk
Office : room 3.25 School of Earth &
Environment (Environment Building)
ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting :
Reading List
Core Texts:
http://www.metoffice.com/education/index.html
Guides to interpretation of charts and imagery, and access to some
current data
http://www.weather.org.uk/
A wide variety of current meteorological data, analysis and forecast
charts, etc. Links to lots of other sites.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html
Analysis and forecast charts for Europe from a variety of agencies and
models (including UK Met Office)
http://grads.iges.org/pix/euro.fcst.html
Analysis & forecast charts for Europe issued by National Centers for
Environmental Prediction.
http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary
Glossary of Meteorology from the American Meteorological Society
ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting :
040909
040914
Course Outline
10 Lectures (Monday 12-1, Parkinson B10)
Introduce basic concepts of meteorology
Emphasis on physical processes not
theoretical or mathematical treatments
~8 x 1-hour workshops
(Thursday 2-3 Parkinson B11)
2002-01-31 12:05
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Weather
The state of the atmosphere; mainly with respect to
its effects upon human activities. Short term variability
of the atmosphere (time scales of minutes to months).
Popularly thought of in terms of: temperature, wind,
humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, brightness, and
visibility.
A category of individual/combined atmospheric
phenomena which describe the conditions at the time
of an observation.
Climate
Long term statistical description of the atmospheric
conditions, averaged over a specified period of time usually decades.
ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting :
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Agriculture
Timing of planting,
harvesting, etc to avoid bad
weather, hazards to
livestock
Commerce
Should a supermarket
order BBQs and icecream,
or umbrellas?
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Temperature
Wind speed
Wind direction
Clouds
Type, extent, altitude
Precipitation?
Type, amount, location
Visibility
Fog, haze
Humidity
ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting :
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In practice
3-5 days is the limit of
reasonable quantitative
forecasts.
Medium-range forecasts
(5-10) days are made, but
limited to large-scale
pressure field and winds,
NOT detailed conditions.
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Methods of Forecasting
Persistence Method:
Tomorrow will be much the same as today
Todays Weather
Tomorrows Forecast
Works well when conditions change only slowly. Also surprisingly effective for general forecasts of
periods >10 days, for which most other more advanced methods lose all their skill. Several weeks of
hot sunny weather often followed by several more.
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Statistical methods
Simple statistics: climatology
Analog method
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Trends:
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Physical Understanding
An extensive set of measurements over a wide
area, coupled with an understanding of the
physical processes allows general conditions to
be assessed and forecasts to be made for a
wide area a day or two ahead.
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AVHRR
False colour composite
2004-04-24 16:34
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Physical Processes
Thermal atmospheric dynamics are
ultimately driven by temperature gradients
arising from uneven solar heating
Pressure gradient forces immediate
cause of horizontal motions
Moisture effect of water vapour content
on air density, and release of latent heat
has a major impact on convection
ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting :
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Meteo-France
MetOffice
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Summary
Meteorology is important to a wide variety
of activities
A huge array of meteorological information
is freely available
With a basic understanding of the physical
processes involved YOU can make timely
and accurate forecasts
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