2013

, ,
.
,
,

.
2013
R&D (, ) .
R&D R&D .
, , , , ,
, (, )
.

, R&D
R&D .
2013
.
2013 12

C o n t e n t s
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 

. 
. 
. 
. 

. ()
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. IGCC

. 

7
8
9
11
14

15
16
16
25

27
28
32
38
46
58
62
66

71

.
1. (, , )
2. 
3. 
4. 

74
77
83
86

. 
1. (, , )
2. 

90
93

2013
3. 
4. 

96
98

. 
1. (, , )
2. 
3. 
4. 

102
107
112
116

. 
1. (, , )
2. 
3. 
4. 

120
126
132
143

. 
1. (, , )
2. 
3. 
4. 

148
151
153
155

. 
1. (, , )
2. 
3. 
4. 

158
161
162
165

. IGCC
1. (, , )
2. 
3. 
4. 

[] , (Acronym)

168
175
177
179

181

.
. 

. 

. 

11

. 

14

.
'Green Race'

, , EU

--() Strategic Plan(11) , () (10) ,
Cool Earth('08) , EU SET-Plan('08), Recovery Plan('08)

--12 (11)
,

, , ,

, R&D
20 5 10 2

( ) 15
(, , ) (11.6)
-- , --
( ) '20 (BAU 30%) 15
(, ) (11.11)
-- , , R&D
( ) ,
8(, ) (11.11)
--Value chain ,

008 2013

2013

.

(09) , (519)
--(10) CCS, ,
EU Recovery Plan('08) ,
12 (11)



-- (10) : (1), (2), (3) (PEW Charitable trust, '10)
-- (10) : 544, 340, EU 774

-- Strategic Plan(11) 20 17% 35
80%
--EU 20 (20%) SET-Plan (08)
-- 50 50% (05 ) Cool Earth (08)


-- 20
-- (11.9)
,

009

()
(DOE Strategic Plan) , ,
(11)
-- 20 17%, 50 83% (05 )
(ARPA-E

('09)
()
(Cool Earth) 50 05 50%
21 (08)
--CCS, , , , 21
(EU)
(SET-Plan) '20 EU EU (90
20% ) (08)
--, , 10
()
(12 )
(11)
-- , , ,
, ,
-- :
,

010 2013

2013


- (11 5) , (11 11) 42

 R&D
- , ,

R&D
Vision Roadmap
 R&D (Hierarchy)
 R&D ,
-
R&D

R&D
--(11 5) , (11 11) 42

2 R&D
()
60% BOS(Balance Of System)


R&D R&D
( ), , BM

011

, 2
 ,
-


- ,
 30%
-
 ,
- ,

 BM
-  60%
(, , )

- (, , )

: 2 (LG Business Insight 2013. 7. 24)

LCOE

BM

< R&D >

IEA , (NEDO)

() R&D

R&D

(,
)

Tech-Tree

R&D

Tech Tree
R&D

Tech Tree

2~3 R&D Project Pool

Pool

Tech-Tree
R&D

Tech-Tree

R&D

Hardware

R&D

R&D

012 2013

2013

IEA, PV (2010)
2050
Electricity generation costs(USD per MWh)

400

Typkal utility electricity

generation costs : USD
240/MWh

300
250
200

1st competitiveness
level : PV least cost
option in selected
applications

50

Note : PV electricity
generation costs are
calculated with a
10% discount rate

1,000 kWh/kW

Large-scale integration of PV power

in the grid

Utility price : USD 1,800/kW

Costs : USD 105/MWh

PV utility

1,500 kW
h/kW
2,000 kW
h/kW

Annual PV electricity generation

in terawatt-hours(TWh/yr)

2000
1000
0

PV systems and power

for general purpose use

BLUE Map wholesale electricity costs

3nd competitiveness level :
PV generation costs - wholesale electricity costs

PV capacity : 27 CW

3000

Costs : USD 70/MWh

2nd competitiveness level :

PV generation costs - retail
electricity prices and tar tariffs

2,000 kWh/kW

4000

Utility price : USD 1,200/kW

PV residential

BLUE Map retail

electricity costs

150
100

Establishment of PV industrial
mass production

Typkal utility system

price : USD 4,000/kW

350

Supported market growth in

increasing number of countries
through 2020

Capacity : 200 GW

Market : 7 CW/yr

Market : 34 CW/yr

Share of global
electricity generation
2010 : 0.2%

Share : 1%

40 TWh/yr

300 TWh/yr

2010

2020

Transition to selfsustained markets

Tangible contribution
to power supply

Capacity : 900 GW

High penetration of PV
out to 2050

Market : 105 CW/yr

Share : 5%

1,200 TWh/yr

2030

Assumptions : Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25 years(2008), 30 years(2020), 35 years(2030) and 40 years(2050) ; O&M costs 1%

() NEDO, (2010)

 Top Class



, ,
1.

,
, inverter,

2.

,
, ,

2015

(2010~2020)
23/kWh

2020

2025

14/kWh

(2017) 20%

25%

(2017) 75/W

50/W

25

2030
7/kWh
(2050) 40%

30

 . ,
.

013

.
, , , ,

R&D ,
R&D
 : Vision() R&D
 : , R&D
R&D

Vision roadmap

15

15

Warehouse

 Vision Roadmap
R&D
R&D

()
2013()

2016() 2020()

2025~2035()

014 2013

CIGS

.
. 

16

. 

16

. 

25

.
, ,

() 4
--
() , , 5
--

KETEP
Vision Roadmap

< >

.
(13.1~2)
Vision , ,
(13.2~3)
(, , 13.1.29~30)
Vision 1 (13.3.29)
, , ,

016 2013

2013

Vision 5 (4~7)
5 Vision (4.25)
--5 PD 30
5 (4~8)
-- : 4 2035
R&D
(11)
R&D LCOE BM
5 LCOE,

VR

 14
 , , ,
5 : , , , , (CCS )

5 ()
LCOE

 R&D

LCOE

 CAPEX
, CAPEX, OPEX,
CAPEX(Capital Expenditure)
OPEX (Operating Expenditure) ()
LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation)

LCOE



, CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE

017

Vision
3 38 , , , 5

--3 14
--
(38) (14) (5)
: , , , , (CCS )

Vision

IGCC

IGCC

(CCS )

:
:

CCS

()

Non-CO2

< >

018 2013

2013

VR(Vision Roadmap)
1

, 5 ()
-- 2035

Utility scale PV systems(, MW )

Commercial PV systems(, 20 kW ~ 1 MW)

Residential PV systems(, 20 kW )

(MCFC, SOFC)

MW

(PEFC)

100kW

/(PEFC,SOFC)

~kW

(DMFC,SOFC)

mW~W

ESS

MW

ESS/UPS

kW

ESS

kW

(USC, HSC, Retrofit )

CCS
IGCC
CCS

019

LCOE
-- (r) (t)
KDI 5.5%

Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation(LCOE)

:

LCOE =

(++)
=

nt=1
=

It+Mt+Ft
(1+)t
Et

nt=1 (1+)t

Where:
LCOE = the average lifetime levelised cost of electricity generation,
It = investment expenditures in the year t; CAPEX(Capital Expenditure) ,
Mt = operations and maintenance expenditures in the year t; OPEX(Operating Expenditure) ,
Ft = fuel expenditures in the year t ,
Et = electricity generation in the year t,
r = discount rate , n = life of the system

LCOE

R&D
--

020 2013

2013

Wafer ()

150

100

80

50

20

22

25

25

18

20

23

23

11

13

14

16

25

30

30

30

15

15

18

20

(%)

97

97

97

99

(%)

2.5

2.5

1.5

(%)

93

93

96

97

()

25

25

30

30

15.5

15.5

15.5

20

()
(%)

PCS

(%)

LCOE($/kWh)

CAPEX
($/MW)

0.24
0.22
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04

(,
BOP )

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

720,000

610,000

470,000

430,000

830,000

730,000

640,000

590,000

109,000

96,000

85,000

79,000

1,560

1,350

1,170

1,080


R&D

- 
,
(,
, , )

(CAPEX)


- 

, ,
,
LCOE

-  5.5%,

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2017 /
2020 PCS
2025 R&D

LCOE

Grid Parity Application BM

021

:
--LCOE : ,
-- :
BM
()

()
1.80

1.60

($/Wp)

($/Wp)

1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

2013

2017

2022

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8

EPC BOP

2035

< Bloomberg (2012) >

EPC
BOP

LCOE
- 
EPCBOP
(Bloomberg )
- 35
,
(), EPC,
BOP

2013

2017

2022

2035

< A (2013) >

BOP(Balance Of Plant), EPC(Engineering, Procurement & Construction)

1.00

0.80

($/Wp)

&

- 13

0.60

22.4%

0.40

- 

0.20

0.00

2013

2017

2022

2035

SE cell

Back contact cell

Back contact cell

Back contact cell

< >

- Kerf-free

SE(Selective Emitter) cell:

Back Contact Cell( )

022 2013

(~25%)

2013

R&D

--( () )
/ R&D , reference
: LCOE
-- : LCOE , ,
< >

Ingot/Wafer

BOP

KPI
(, , )

(MG-Si)

(%)

N/A

(%)

99.9999

N/A

Grower

Wire Saw

120

Wafer

120

Metal Paste

(%)

18.5

Passivation

(%)

18.5

Doping

Uniformity(%)

<5

m/sec

0.5

18.5

Ribbon

70

EVA

UV (%)

85

Back Sheet

(g/hrm2)

2.4

(%)

91

Junction Box

Loss(%)

Cable

N/A

Frame

N/A

PCS

(%)

96

Monitoring

N/A

023

< >

Wire Saw

Wafer

Passivation

Kerf-loss

MCLT(Minor Carrier Life Time)

()

PCS

Metal Paste

Ribbon

EVA

Back Sheet

024 2013

,
/

, ,

/
,
/

2013

.
R&D

, ,
, ,
-- ( )
ni,t = [(i0+i11n(

pi,t
n

)+i2(

ni,t-1
mi )][mi-Ni,t-1]

i,t

i=1

-- ni,t, Ni,t, pi,t t i , ,

, mi i
--i0 , i2 , i1
--pi,t LCOE

Grid-parity

LCOE
-- LCOE LNG
-- LNG
CCGt = 0 + 1LNGt + t
-- CCGt t LCOE, LNGt t LNG
-- LNG LCOE
CCGt+n = 0 + 1LNGt+n
LNG

025

. ()
. 

28

. 

32

. 

38

. 

46

. 

58

. 

62

. IGCC

66

R&D
0.24 -

0.22 0.20 -

LCOE($/kWh)

0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04

2015

2020

2030

2035

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

Wafer (nm)

150

100

80

50

20

22

25

25

18

20

23

23

11

13

14

16

()

25

30

30

30

15

15

18

20

(%)

97

97

97

99

(%)

2.5

2.5

1.5

(%)

93

93

96

97

()

25

25

30

30

15.5

15.5

15.5

20

2025

(%)

PCS

(%)

028 2013

2013

2015

2020

2030

2035

2025

R&D, R&D

R&D
R&D

R&D

, ,
RPS (2012~2022)

Grid Parity BM

(~2022)
FIT

Grid

(MW)

20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

()

029

`17 Grid Parity (, `13
)

-- `17 /
-- `20 PCS
-- `20 PCS /
-- `25 R&D

-- Grid Parity Application BM
-- ,

-- `17 /
-- `20 PCS
-- `20 PCS /
-- Net-metering, Self-consumption Bonus

-- Grid Parity BM (100
kW )

030 2013

2013

LCOE

-- /
-- /
-- /

--
--

-- BOS
--

< >

CAPEX

($/MW)

(,
BOP )

LCOE($/kWh)

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

720,000

610,000

470,000

430,000

830,000

730,000

640,000

590,000

109,000

96,000

85,000

79,000

1,560

1,350

1,170

1,080

0.211

0.162

0.112

0.058

0.22

0.168

0.121

0.069

0.235

0.177

0.129

0.077

()

031

LCOE(/kWh)

R&D

(%)

250 200 150 100 50 080 -

60 40 20 02013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2035

(MW)

3.6

(%)

95

96

97

97

97

97

Generator

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2025 2025~2030

Geared Geared/Less Geared/Less Gearless Gearless Gearless

Hub Height(m)

80

100

110

110

110

110

Cut-in/Cut-out
Speed(m/s)

3.5/25

4/25

3/25

4/30

4/30

4/30

Rated Speed(m/s)

12.5

11.5

11.5

11.5

11.5

11.5

()

20

20

25

30

30

30

Site

(m/s)
at 80m

AEP(MWh/MW)

2,015

2,012

2,190

2,190

2,190

2,190

(%)

23

24

25

25

25

25

032 2013

Class II, Class II, Class II, Class II, Class II, Class II,
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0

2013

10

10

3~5

3~7

5~10

7<

7<

(%)

95

96

97

97

97

Generator

Geared

Hub Height(m)

80

100

110

125

125

Cut-in/Cut-out
Speed(m/s)

3.5/25

4/25

3/25

4/30

4/30

Rated
Speed(m/s)

12.5

11.5

11.5

11.5

11.5

()

20

20

25

30

30

AMSC

AMSC

(m)

15

15

25

35

35

(m/s)

7.2

7.5

7.5

(km)

30

30

50

60

60

(kV)

154

154

345

154/345

154/345

Site
()

(MW)

108

108

1,986

5,649

5,649

AEP
(MWh/MW)

2,417.60

2,746.50

2,974.20

3,220.20

3,220.20

(%)

28

31

34

37

37

(MW)

Site

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030 2030~2035

Geared/Less Geared/Less Gearless

Gearless

()

033

R&D

2015

2020

R&D
( )
R&D

2025

Grid R&D
, R&D
/ R&D
R&D

2.5GW

+
2030

2035

Biz Model

RPS (2012~2022)

Grid Parity

(, , )

Grid

(MW)

,
9.7GW

20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000

12,000

10,000
8,000 6,000 4,000
2,000 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

034 2013

2013

--
-- ,
-- ,
,
-- ,

< >

CAPEX
(/
MW)

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2025 2025~2030

2030

225

205

184

163

153

143

1,575

1,431

1,287

1,144

1,072

1,000

186

186

186

186

186

186

393

357

322

286

268

250

121

121

121

121

121

121

2,500

2,300

2,100

1,900

1,800

1,700

15

14

12

11

10

10

118.83

105.54

83.49

70.69

66.55

63.41

OPEX(/kWh)

LCOE(/kWh)

()

035

--
//
, ,
--
-- ,
-- Site
-- ,

< >

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030 2030~2035

266

246.14

213.89

140.11

140.11

1,327

1,333.33

1,175.94

1,028.63

1,028.63

1,547

1,077.00

628.82

584.22

584.22

1,140

1,197.92

1,104.58

1,013.80

1,013.80

1,170

692.95

405.47

235.99

235.99

5,450

4,547.34

3,528.71

3,002.74

3,002.74

OPEX(/kWh)

28.1

24.6

17.2

15.1

15.1

216.72

166.08

107.45

81.11

81.11

CAPEX
(/
MW)

LCOE(/kWh)

036 2013

2013

()

037

R&D

LCOE(/kWh)

10,000

SOFC
PEFC
SOFC
MCFC

1,000 -

100 2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030 2030~2035

(%)

47

49

51

55

58

(%)

62

72

75

(/kW)

500

450

200

130

50

(MW)

2.8

2.8

10

50

100

(%)

80

85

91

92

94

()

40,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

100,000

(kW)

350

350

375

400

400

(MW)

125

335

2,200

15,500

18,500

038 2013

2013

(%)

35

38

41

42

42

(%)

85

90

90

90

90

4,000

3,200

1,800

1,000

400

()

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

>90,000

(%)

90

90

90

92

92

80

60

40

40

BOP,
(%)

10

30

60

100

100

78

80

82

83

85

(kW)

500

5,000

30,000

100,000

200,000

(/kW)

PEFC

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030 2030~2035

BOP M-BOP (%)

(%)

35

50

60

60

65

(%)

35

50

85

90

90

5,000

2,800

2,000

700

300

()

3,000

20,000

40,000

90,000

90,000

(kW)

10

50

50

100

(W)

240

260

300

500

1000

(%)

80

100

100

100

100

(MW/)

24

40

300

30,000

190,000

300,000

(/kW)

SOFC

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030 2030~2035

(kW)

()

039

15
14

264.0

12
195.8

10

O&M(/kWh)

131.8
103.1
LCOE(/kWh)

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030 2030~2035

(%)

59

65

65

65

65

(W/)

500W/

650

700

700

700

(kW/)

1.4

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.4

()

-20

-30

-40

-40

-40

(hr)

2,000

5,000

/kW
( )

10

50

1,000

50,000

040 2013

5,000 5,000 5,000

5 5

100,000

150,000

2013

2015

2020

R&D
(Supply Chain )

R&D

2025

2030

2035

, R&D
/ R&D
R&D

Biz Model

RPS (2012~2022)

20,000 (MW)
(MW)

15,000 -

(MW)

10,000 -

5,000 -

0 2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

()

041

LCOE

-- / , /
--
--
-- MW

-- LNG
-- IGFC ,

--

--
--
--
-- PEFC
--
-- , /, BOP
--
--
-- (LPG, DME, ), (, APU )
-- , ,
-- 10kW
,

042 2013

2013

-- 85
,
--
, /
90kW, 2kW/L,
650W/L, 5,000 PEFC
-- MEA,
--
-- 100 (09~11)
--
--
--

()

043

044 2013

2013

()

045

R&D
(Grid)
500 Grid(RFB, 4)

LCOE(/kWh)

400 -

Grid(LiB, 4)

300 200 100 0

2013

RFB, 4

BMS

2015

2020

2035

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

(kW)

<250

<500

>1,000

>10,000

(%)

70

75

80

90

Cycle
(@DOD 100)

3,000

5,000

10,000

>15,000

()

10

15

>20

>25

(W/L)

~23

~45

~55

~60

(mV)

50

40

30

20

(%)

(%)

SOC (%)

>1,000

>2,000

>10,000

>50,000

>250

>1,000

>,7500

>37,500

(%)

70

75

85

90

1cycle/

046 2013

2013

LiB, 4

BMS

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

(Wh/kg)

135

160

200

400

(W/kg)

2,000

2,300

2,700

3,000

()

10

10

10

10

(mV)

50

40

30

20

()

(%)

SOC(%)

DC-AC*AC-DC
(%)

90

91

93

95

(DOD%)

90

94

98

98

3cycle/(10 )

LiB, 1,

BMS

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

(Wh/kg)

150

180

225

450

(W/kg)

3,000

3,500

4,000

5,000

()

(mV)

50

40

30

20

()

(%)

SOC(%)

DC-AC*AC-DC
(%)

85

86

88

90

(DOD%)

90

94

98

98

3cycle/(5 )

()

047

LiB,

(Wh/kg)

135

160

200

400

(W/kg)

4,000

4,500

5,000

6,000

()

(mV)

50

40

30

20

()

(%)

SOC(%)

DC-AC*AC-DC
(%)

85

86

88

90

(DOD%)

90

94

98

98

BMS

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

4cycle/(4 )

(, UPS)
300

LCOE(/kWh)

240 -

UPS

180 120 60 0-

048 2013

2013

2015

2020

2035

2013

420

510

560

600

130

150

180

200

(W/kg)

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,600

()

12

15

(mV)

(%)

90

92

94

96

()

10

SOC(%)

94

95

97

98

DC-AC*AC-DC
(%)

90

92

95

97

(DOD%)

90

92

94

96

BMS

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

300 -

LCOE(/kWh)

240 180 120 60 0-

2013

2015

2020

2035

()

049

BMS

2014~2016 2017~2022 2023~2035

(kWh)

20

25

30

60

(kW)

40

50

60

100

(Wh/kg)

170

200

250

500

(%)

95

96

96

96

()

10

10

(mV)

50

40

30

20

()

(%)

SOC(%)

(-10)(kW)

10

13

30

(DOD%)

80

90

90

90

2013

2015

R&D

Supply chain

2020

2030

R&D
BMS/PCS

BMS, Pack

/
Grid

050 2013

2013

900 800
Market Revenue()

700

EV Eneray Storage
Stationary Energy Storage

600 500
400

300 200
100

0 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

: IIT report, Hiedge report, Miraeesset research

LCOE
Stack Redox Couple 2015 2~3%

2015 ,
2020~2030 15,000 35, 25

PCS/PMS 10%, 2020 3% ,

BMS
RFB
LCOE 110% BOP
2020 , 20%

()

051

< (Grid, RFB, 4)>

2013~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030

0.19

0.12

0.03

0.02

0.23

0.15

0.04

0.03

BOP/Enclosure

0.15

0.11

0.04

0.03

BOP Control/BMS

0.19

0.17

0.05

0.05

PCS/PMS

0.15

0.06

0.03

0.02

(+)

0.30

0.20

0.07

0.05

0.92

0.61

0.20

0.15

PCS/PMS O&M

0.06

0.02

0.01

0.01

Variable O&M

0.2567

0.1210

0.0182

0.0073

Battery
Replacement

0.08

0.06

0.00

0.00

0.55

0.51

0.48

0.46

0.95

0.72

0.52

0.48

447

297

98

76

CAPEX
(
/kWh)

OPEX
(
/kWh)

LCOE(/kWh)

1,100/$

052 2013

2013

< (Grid, LiB, 4) >

CAPEX
(/
kWh)

0.55

0.39

0.23

0.17

Pack+BMS

0.28

0.19

0.11

0.08

PCS+PMS

0.15

0.06

0.03

0.02

0.32

0.21

0.12

0.09

1.3

0.85

0.49

0.36

PCS/PMS O&M

0.06

0.02

0.01

0.01

Battery
Replacement

0.24

0.20

0.17

0.12

1.29

1.27

1.25

1.22

1.59

1.49

1.43

1.35

285

231

190

170

OPEX
(
/kWh)

2014~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030

LCOE(/kWh)

, 1,100/$ 67/kWh

()

053

< (LiB, 1, ) >

CAPEX
(
/kWh)

0.55

0.39

0.23

0.17

Pack+BMS

0.28

0.19

0.11

0.08

PCS+PMS

0.60

0.23

0.14

0.09

0.47

0.27

0.16

0.11

1.9

1.08

0.64

0.45

PCS/PMS O&M

0.24

0.09

0.05

0.04

Battery
Replacement

0.77

0.59

0.51

0.37

1.36

1.35

1.32

1.29

2.37

2.03

1.88

1.7

422

307

248

212

OPEX
(
/kWh)

2014~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030

LCOE(/kWh)

1,100/$ 67/kWh

054 2013

2013

< (LiB, ) >

CAPEX
(
/kWh)

0.63

0.44

0.30

0.25

Pack+BMS

0.28

0.19

0.13

0.11

PCS+PMS

1.20

0.46

0.40

0.14

0.70

0.36

0.27

0.17

2.81

1.45

1.1

0.67

PCS/PMS O&M

0.48

0.18

0.16

0.06

Battery
Replacement

1.20

0.93

0.90

0.76

0.45

0.45

0.44

0.43

2.13

1.56

1.5

1.25

1463

895

768

567

OPEX
(
/kWh)

2014~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030

LCOE(/kWh)

1,100/$ 67/kWh

()

055

< () >

CAPEX
(/
kWh)

2014~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030

(BMS)

0.572

0.440

0.253

0.132

PCS+PMS

0.638

0.451

0.220

0.099

0.121

0.095

0.047

0.023

1.331

0.986

0.52

0.254

Fixed O&M

0.182

0.151

0.088

0.048

Variable O&M

0.024

0.015

0.006

0.003

0.294

0.202

0.104

0.052

0.5

0.368

0.198

0.103

222

205

184

172

OPEX
(/
kWh)

LCOE(/kWh)

1,100/$
[]
1. : 100kWh
2. ESS : 12(), 15%(~2015) 20%(~2020 ~2030)
3. : 1/
4. PCS : 2%/
5. ESS : CAPEX (+PCS/PMS+) 10%
6. : 187/kWh (LNG )

056 2013

2013

< (UPS)>

(BMS)

0.572

0.440

0.253

0.132

PCS+PMS

1.210

0.880

0.550

0.330

0.178

0.132

0.080

0.046

1.96

1.452

0.883

0.508

Fixed O&M

0.416

0.349

0.260

0.186

Variable O&M

0.024

0.015

0.006

0.003

0.367

0.253

0.130

0.065

0.807

0.617

0.396

0.254

205

189

169

158

CAPEX
(/
kWh)

OPEX
(/
kWh)

2014~2015 2016~2020 2020~2030

LCOE(/kWh)
[]
1. : 100kWh

2. ESS : 12(), 15%(~2015) 20%(~2020 ~2030)

3. : 1/
4. PCS : 2%/
5. ESS : CAPEX (+PCS/PMS+) 10%
6. : 187/kWh (LNG )
< >

CAPEX
(/kWh)

2014~2015

2016~2020

2020~2030

0.50

0.40

0.20

0.10

BMS

0.10

0.08

0.05

0.02

0.24

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.84

0.63

0.35

0.17

0.0056

0.0040

0.0017

0.0017

200

183

175

172

OPEX(/kWh)
LCOE($/kWh)

: 1/ , : 187/kWh (LNG )

()

057

R&D
1,700 -

- 49

1,600 -

- 47

1,500 -

- 45

1,400 -

- 43

02013

2015

(MW)

(%)

(%)

(%)
()

058 2013

2020

2025

-0
2035

2030

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

870

870

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

43

43

44

45

47

48

90

90

90

90

90

90

78

81

83

88

90

92

30

30

30

30

30

30

LCOE(/kWh) (%)

(/kW)

LCOE

2013

2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

USC /

Retrofit

R&D

/
/

(Superalloy , )

700 HSC
/

Test Plant

O&M
/

/
(MW)

50,000 40,000 30 ,000

20,000

10,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

()

059

LCOE
(, /)
-- (42%) (44~45%) (~48%)
CAPEX , OPEX

-- (USC) 2015

-- 700C (HSC) 2025
(Ni base Superalloy) CAPEX ,

LCOE
: $102.1/tonne
2013 6 ( )
20136 KOMIS News Letter CIF Price (KOR) USD 92.16/ton
2013-05 , Wood Mackenzie thermal Coal 2013 5

1000 MW
3%, 90%, 30
,

-- 1,419,000/kW $1,234/kW( , 56, 12.63%)
-- (as fired basis), HHV : 5,970 kcal/kg

O&M : $19/kW (6 , 2013.2)

: 5.5%, : 1,100/$

060 2013

2013

< >

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

AE

109,219

90,900

84,992

88,951

97,735

108,435

291,250

290,879

271,975

261,029

267,933

297,265

T/G

182,031

181,799

169,984

165,357

171,777

190,582

48,542

48,047

44,924

40,931

40,180

40,825

279,115

284,386

265,904

237,941

229,925

232,005

327,656

333,732

312,042

282,483

275,831

289,335

351,927

358,404

335,111

303,356

269,168

308,676

41,260

42,853

40,068

37,952

38,450

40,877

317,190

317,315

314,075

309,365

304,787

299,422

Discount Rate(%)

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

LCOE(/kWh)

47.2

47.2

46.4

45.3

44.7

44.9

CAPEX
(/
MW)

OPEX
(/MWh)

()

061

R&D
1,700 -

- 60%

1,500 -

- 55%

(%)

GT(/kW)

1,600 -

GT
GT

1,400 -

LCOE(kWh)

0-

2015

2020

2025

- 50%
2035

2030

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

(MW)

404

404

404

404

404

404

(%)

50.62%

54.24%

54.24%

54.24%

58.76%

58.76%

()

24,000

24,000

48,000

48,000

48,000

48,000

()

40

40

20

20

20

20

NOx(ppm)

25

25

062 2013

2013

2015
(F)

R&D

F
(Non-OEM)

2020

2025

+
2030

2035

(Post-H)

H
(Non-OEM)

F (OEM)

Post-H
(OEM)

( LNG, PNG, SNG )

LNG
(+ )

/
45,000 40,000 -

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

()

063

LCOE
LCOE
--

-- LNG

GT
--
--

< >

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

55.0

55.0

53.7

50.4

47.2

44.0

77.0

77.0

75.0

70.2

65.3

60.5

CAPEX
(

/MW)

22.0

22.0

21.3

19.7

18.1

16.5

33.0

33.0

32.3

30.7

29.1

27.5

33.0

33.0

32.3

30.7

29.1

27.5

55.0

55.0

53.7

50.4

47.2

44.0

0.130

0.121

0.121

0.121

0.112

0.112

Discount Rate(%)

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

LCOE(/kWh)

134.95

132.12

130.03

128.80

127.52

124.44

OPEX
(/MWh)

064 2013

2013

LCOE
:
-- MHI M501GAC 11 (: 404MW,
: 50.62%(HHV))

: Gas Turbine World Handbook 2012

: 30
(TOC) : 1,082,000(1,148,000)/kW $941(998.3)/kW [6 ,
, ( ) ]
: 67,145 /Gcal [6 , , 1,150/US$]

()

065

. IGCC

R&D
LCOE
(/kWh)

Without CCS

(%)

2,300

- 106 - 50

(/kW)

2,100 - 100 - 48
1,900 1,700 1,500 2013

2015

2020

2025

- 90

- 44

- 85

- 42

LCOE
(/kWh)

(/kW)

3.300 -

3.000 - 125
2.700 - 115

- 37

- 105 - 35
2015

2020

2025

2035

2013

2017

/


IGCC
EPC

066 2013

- 41
- 39

2.400 -

2013

(%)

- 135 - 43

2.100 -

R&D

- 46

2035

With CCS

- 95

2020
500MW IGCC

IGCC+CCS

2035

2025

IGFC
ITM
ASU

2013

(IGCC/SNG)

IGCC RPS

IGCC+CCS

GT

IGCC+CCS

IGCC+CCS

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

Adv. GT & Adv.+ GT

42.0

42.0

44.6

46.7

47.7

47.7

42.0

42.0

44.6

46.7

47.7

47.7

ASU(ITM)

42.0

42.0

44.6

46.7

47.7

49.7

GT (MW)

235

235

000

000

000

000

ASU(ITM) (/)

1,000

(1)
(/)

2,500

2,500

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

/
(%)

100

100

100

/
(%)

60

80

80

100

100

/
(%)

60

80

80

100

100

/ (%)

60

60

80

80

100

/
(%)

40

60

60

80

100

/ (%)

60

80

80

100

100

()

067

. IGCC

/
(MW)

2,000 1,800

1,600

1,400
1,200
1,000 800
600 400 200
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

LCOE
300MW (7090%)
-- , , (, )
90% LCOE
-- 27 5 IGCC (6 ), 2 SNG
79 , 500MW
30%
, , ASU

-- Adv. (42%49.7%) LCOE
( 8000H) MHI( 501J) ,
260320MW, 60% LCOE
IGCC 2.1%
, ASU ITM ASU
11MW 0.6%

068 2013

2013

< IGCC >

(
)

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

Adv. GT & Adv.+ GT

42.0

42.0

44.6

46.7

47.7

47.7

42.0

42.0

44.6

46.7

47.7

47.7

ASU(ITM)

42.0

42.0

44.6

46.7

47.7

49.7

GT (MW)

235

235

000

000

000

000

ASU(ITM) (/)

1,000

(1) (/)

2,500

2,500

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

/ (%)

100

100

100

/ (%)

60

80

80

100

100

/ (%)

60

80

80

100

100

60

60

80

80

100

/ (%)

40

60

60

80

100

/
(%)

60

80

80

100

100

296.9

267.2

267.2

240.5

240.5

216.5

339.3

305.4

305.4

274.9

274.9

247.4

509.0

458.1

458.1

412.3

412.3

371.1

212.1

190.9

190.9

171.8

171.8

154.6

178.2

160.3

160.3

144.3

144.3

129.9

84.8

76.4

76.4

68.7

68.7

61.8

140.0

126.0

126.0

113.4

113.4

102.0

360.5

324.5

324.5

292.0

292.0

262.8

21.2

19.1

19.1

17.2

17.2

15.5

Discount Rate(%)

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

LCOE(/kWh)

106.0

101.4

99.3

92.0

91.4

86.6

/ (%)

CAPEX
(/
MW)

OPEX(/MWh)

()

069

 IGCC
2013

LCOE
: 5.5%, 30, O&M 1%()
: 5,000kcal/kg, 42.01%, 98.6/(USD89.6,/), SMP
117.5/kWh, 42/kWh, 22%
with CCS : 7%, 46.7% (NETL 2012: 37.6% ($3385/
kW $4658/kW)
with CCS : 7%, 46.7% (NETL 2012: 37.6% ($3385/
kW $4658/kW)
IGCC, IGCC+CCS , 2020 35, $1 = 1100
-- 2015 : 10%,
-- 2017 : , Adv.GT 2015 2.5%p
-- 2020 : 10%, 2017 2.1%p
-- 2025 : (=2020), Adv+ GT 2020 1.0%p
-- 2030 : 10%, ITM(ASU) 2020 2.0%p

070 2013

.
. 

73

. 

89

. 

101

. 

119

. 

147

. 

157

. IGCC

167

.
1. (, , ) 

74

2. 

77

3. 

83

4. 

86

1. (, , )

(1)

RPS (`12 ~ 22) (12 2% 2016 0.5%, 1% RPS
10% )
CIGS (KTL)
( 1.5)

BIPV Guide Line ( 2.0)

()
, EU FIT , FIT, RPS, , Incentive

(2) (2013)


--() (HIT, PERL, IBC ) CTM Loss
(120 )
--(CIGS) ( 18% ), (In ) R2R

--() DSSC,
--()
-- ( , (CPV, BIPV, ), BOS
) R&D

--() (HIT, PERL, IBC ) MMA
(100 ) ,

074 2013

2013

--(CIGS) Cd-free ( 18% ), (In ) R2R

, GW
--() DSSC, ( 10% ) ,

--() ,
SWOT

Strength()
- 

Weakness()
- China Risk

-
- RPS ODA - /
Opportunity()
- Project
-  MW
Project

Threat()
- ,

- 

Strength()

Weakness()

-  - China Risk
- 

Opportunity()

-
- /
Threat()

-  ,

- ,

-  ,

- 

-  APT
-  BIPV

075

(3)

, /
,

--S , LS

-- R&D
,

-- `08 3
, 4 (13 )
--11 12 (FIT) , `12
(RPS)


,
`11 , (FIT , )
15~20%
--11 , ,
15~20%
-- , (12 28 GW 13
36~38 GW)
( ) ,
(5 : 74% )
R&D
-- : SunShot Initiative R&D
-- : All Japan Project, Post Fukushima Project
-- : 12 5 R&D
--EU : SET Plan R&D

076 2013

2.

()

2013

2017

2022

EPC
BOP

($/W)

($/W)

()
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -

2035

2013

< Bloomberg (2012) >

2017

2022

Bloomberg *1
2017

2035

< A (2013) >

( : $/Wp)

< >

2013

EPC
BOP

2022

A *2
2035

2013

2017

2022

2035

0.55

0.48

0.35

0.30

0.72

0.61

0.47

0.43

0.30

0.28

0.25

0.20

0.11

0.09

0.07

0.07

0.11

0.09

0.07

0.07

BOP

0.26

0.23

0.21

0.20

0.26

0.23

0.21

0.20

EPC

0.31

0.28

0.25

0.23

0.31

0.28

0.25

0.23

0.15

0.13

0.11

0.09

0.15

0.13

0.11

0.09

System Cost

1.55

1.34

1.12

1.02

1.68

1.49

1.24

1.09

*1 Bloomberg : (--)
*2 A : --

, , EPCBOP (Bloomberg )

, 35 , , , EPC, BOP
35 13 65.8% (Bloomberg )
35 13 70% ( A )
11 ,
(, , )
,
EPC (, APT )
( , )

077

 ( )
< (IBC ) >

( : $/Wp)

Back Contact Cell

SE Cell(2013)
2017

2022

2035

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.08

0.25

0.28

0.25

0.22

0.30

0.28

0.25

0.20

13 , Selective Emitter(SE) ~180

~19.4%, ~16% , / $0.30/Wp, $0.25/Wp,
$0.30/Wp
13 22.4%, 21.6%
,

30 ~25%, ~21.5%, Kerf-free 80
/ $0.08/Wp, $0.22/Wp, $0.20/Wp
, Kerf-free (~25%)

1.00

&

($/Wp)

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
2013

2017

2022

2035

SE cell

Back contact cell

Back contact cell

Back contact cell

< >

078 2013

2013

a-Si
13 a-Si $0.85/Wp
60% , , , , ,

-- , a-Si
Triple-junction

a-Si CIGS
, 5 (1.1 X 1.3 m2)

-- CIGS
, , a-Si

, a-Si c-Si Voc
a-Si
, /

0.9 0.8 -

($/Wp)

0.7 Deorecuation

0.6 -

Overhead/Maintenance

0.5 -

Absorber layer

0.4 -

Substrate/Processing

0.3 -

Balance of Materials
Labor

0.2 0.1 0 2013

2017

2022

2035

< a-Si >

079

 CIGS ( )
10.9 0.8 ($/Wp)

0.7 Interest

0.6 -

Energy

0.5 -

Labor

0.4 -

Maintenance

0.3 -

Depreciation
Materials

0.2 0.1 0 2013

2017

2022

2035

< CIGS >

13 CIGS $1.0/Wp
, *

: , , , ,

() ()

(Sputtering, Co-evaporation) *
(Roll to Roll)
: ,

, ,
CIGS $0.45/Wp

080 2013

2013

(NREL )

c-Si Solar PV Module Manufacturing Costs

$0.16 -

Current and Long-term Scenarios, vertically integrated U.S. FIRMS

$1.50 -

2011 $U.S.per WP DC

$1.25 -

Margin
Cell costs
Current scenarios

Long-term scenarios

$1.19

$1.00 $0.82

$0.88

$0.75 -

$0.60

$0.50 -

$0.12 -

Deorecuation
Energy
Labor

$0.10 -

Other Materials
Ag Pastes

$0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 -

$0.25 $0 -

Maintenance

$0.14 -

Margin
Wafer costs

Costs(2011 $U.S.per WP DC)

Margin
Module costs

$0.00 Standard
(n=14.9%)
180um wafer

HIT cell(21.4%)
140um

Standard
(n=14.9%)
160um

HIT cell(21.4%)
80um

< Cell >

Test
Saw
HF PE CVD PE CVD Sputter Screen Laser Inspect
Wafer Damage Oxides (p)a-Si (n)nc-Si ITO Print(3) Edge and Sort
Remove, Clean (front) (rear) (front) Pastes Isolation Cells
Tecture

< >

-- Standard (HIT )
--
CIGS
CIGS Solar PV Manufacturing Costs:
Coevaporation(frameless) on-glass cost reduction road map, U.S. production location
Source: Goodrich; Woodhouse, M; Noufi. R CLGS Road Map, NREL Technical Report, 2011

$1.20 $1.11

2011 $U.S./WP DC

$1.00 $0.80 $0.63

$0.60 -

$0.47

$0.40 -

$0.40

$0.20 $0.00 -

2011
12%

Near term
17.60%

Mid term
19.90%

Interest
Energy
Labor
Maintenance
Depreciation
Module mats
Emitter+TCO
CIGS
Mo
Glass
Price

Longer term
potential
20.50%

< CIGS Roadmap >

081

$1.20 -

2011 $U.S./WP DC

$1.00 $0.80 -

$1.06
$0.89

$0.12
$0.12

$0.60 -

$0.07

$0.05

$0.59
$0.04

$0.89

Task #2
Fill Factor
benefits
(efficiency)
+0.9%

Targeted CIGS
Module

$0.40 $0.20 $0.00 -

2011

n=12%

Task #3
Task #1
Rapid CIGS High Ga/In ratio
growth
(Voc 0.6 to 0.7)
(S/)
(efficiency)
n/a
+21%

Task #2
Thin dry
emitter
(efficiency)
+1.4%

Task #2
Low cost
emitter
(S/)
n/a

16%

< CIGS (Target) >

--CIGS (
) ,

$1

-EPC-BOP 40%

() , (Ag Paste ), (, 32
20 )
() , ,
90%
--(a-Si) *

: , , , ,

--(CIGS)
$0.45/Wp

082 2013

3.

(Scenario1)

1.55
1.02

R&D
(Scenario2)

R&D

1.55
0.71

($/Wp) (%)

15.5

20

/ 1.55
(Scenario3) 0.86

LCOE
LCOE
LCOE

($/
($/
($/
($/Wp) (%)
($/Wp) (%)
kWh)
kWh)
kWh)
2.15
1.47
0.211
2.15

1.11
0.058
2.15
1.15

2.75
1.47
15.5

20

0.220
2.75

1.09
0.069
2.75
1.19

15.5

20

0.235

0.077

3.00 -

- 25

2.50 -

- 20

- 15
1.50 - 10

(%)

($/Wp)

2.00 -

1.00 0.05 -

R&D

0.00 2013

2015

R&D, R&D

R&D

2020

R&D

2030

(%)

-5

-0
2035

R&D
R&D

R&D

083

2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

, ,
RPS (2012~2022)

Grid Parity BM

(~2022)
FIT

Grid

-- R&D , R&D

--30 / R&D R&DB

LCOE
0.24 -

0.22 0.20 -

LCOE($/kWh)

0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04

084 2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2013

--`17 LCOE
Grid Parity
-- 15 20, 16 25
--25 15.5%
20%

Item R&D(R&DB )
, /
R&D

085

4.

R&D ( ) ()

-- :  (PCS)
,
< >

KPI
(, , )

(MG-Si)

(%)

N/A

(%)

99.9999

N/A

Grower

Wire Saw

120

Wafer

120

Metal Paste

(%)

18.5

Passivation

(%)

18.5

Doping

Uniformity(%)

<5

m/sec

0.5

18.5

Ribbon

70

EVA

UV (%)

85

Back Sheet

(g/hrm2)

2.4

(%)

91

Junction Box

Loss(%)

Cable

N/A

Frame

N/A

PCS

(%)

96

Monitoring

N/A

Ingot/Wafer

BOP

086 2013

2013

Wire Saw

Wafer

Passivation

()

PCS

Metal Paste

Kerf-loss

MCLT(Minor Carrier Life Time)





/



,

Ribbon

, ,
EVA

Back Sheet

,
/

087

.
1. (, , )

90

2. 

93

3. 

96

4. 

98

1. (, , )

(1)

RPS (2012-2022)
6 2027 15.19GW

--2013-2016 : Track Record

--2016-2020 : ( , )
--2020-2030 : Grid Parity

(2) (2013)


--2012 12 471.7MW , 2012 65.2MW
( 0.2% )
--750kW 268 ( 25, 9,443kW)
-- 1.3GW
-- 5MW (STX 2MW, 3MW)
-- 7GW (, )
-- 2.5GW //

--2011 241GW (2012 4.7GW)

090 2013

2013

--2012-2016 270GW ( 247GW, 23GW)

--2021 1,004GW . 2030 239GW
SWOT

Strength()

Weakness()

- ()

Opportunity()
-

Threat()

- ,

Strength()

Weakness()

- ,

- /

- /

- RPS

- ,

- /
-

Opportunity()

Threat()

-
-

- 

-  /

091

(3)


-- ,

-- 53, 1.8GW
4

--
--2013 PTC
--2014
-- 2014 20GW 2020
-- ,



-- 2.5GW, 5GW
-- ,
-- Track Record


--
-- 70%

-- ,

-- , Siemens,
Vestas

092 2013

2.

CAPEX 2012 2,500

5%

/MW

9%

-- 63% CAPEX

16%

63%

7%

< 12 CAPEX >

--

250 -

LCOE(/kWh)

200

150

100

50

02012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

< >

093


CAPEX , , ,

5%

/SS, 5
, O&M

24%

22%

--2012 , CAPEX

/SS

5,450 /MW

, /SS

28%

21%

SS : Sub-station ()

< 12 CAPEX >

,
58%
/SS (HVDC ) 80%

O&M" (OPEX) LCOE 25~30% 2/3
, /SS, O&M
-- /SS, , 2030 2012 17%
250 -

LCOE(/kWh)

200

150

100

50

02012

2015

2020

2030

< >

094 2013

2013

, ,

LCOE ,


/SS ,

, ,
,
O&M 30% , O&M

70 -

- 250

60 -

-- 200

LCOE(/kWh)

50

- 150

40
-

- 100

30
20

- 50

10 0-

- 0
2012

2015

2020

2030

< LCOE >

AOE

total COE

095

3.

CAPEX
(/
MW)

(%)

(%)

CAPEX
(/
MW)

(%)

(%)

5532

2835

6~11

2517

2325

10

R&D
(Scenario2)

R&D

5531

2837

6~11

2517

2326

10

/
(Scenario3)

5531

2836

5.5 *

2517

2325.5

5.5 *

(Scenario1)

(REC, FIT)

LCOE
250 -

- 50.0

LCOE(/kWh)

- 40.0

150 -

- 30.0

100 -

- 20.0

50 -

- 10.0

0-

- 0.0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

S1

S1

S1

S1

S2

S2

S2

S2

S3

S3

S3

S3

096 2013

(%)

R&D

200 -

2013

2015

2020

2025

R&D

R&D

R&D

2030

2035

Grid R&D
COE

R&D

(REC )
,

/ , R&D

097

4.

R&D ( ) ()
(LCOE)
--, , , , , O&M

Grid

O&M

KPI (,,)

Crane
(SEP Barge)
(+ )

*




Overhaul

MW
km
m/s
m
%
MW
m
m
%
%
%
yr
ton/MW
ton/MW
m/s
m
ton/MW
m
day/
ton
ton
/km
day/MW
km/MW
%
%
day/yr
m
m/s
m/w
/MW
day/year

100
15
7
15
10
3
100
80
45
30
95
20
4
44
50
15
N/A
50
60
1,350
4,800
38
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
200
1.5
10
1.0
0.1
N/A

098 2013

2013

, Grid

, , Grid Risk

.
,

O&M

,
, /

099

.
1. (, , )

102

2. 

107

3. 

112

4. 

116

1. (, , )

(1)

100 , , 06 11
FIT() 12 RPS()

Grid Parity R&D
--(13~16) : RPS
,
RPS , REC RPS
LNG
, ,

--(17~20) : (Grid Parity )

, MW
MW
CCS MW

--(21~35) :
IGFC
CCS
, ,

2006 0.0598GW 2014 8.3451GW CAGR 85.4%

: ,
,

102 2013

2013

(2) (2013)


-- 100MW BOP
-- 100% Cell

--11 MCFC , , Off-grid

-- 60MW 35%
--2013 (195kW/150)
--2013 58MW (118MW )
--2013 3 , 1,000/ ,

--2013 700 ( 14)

-- MCFC FCE

-- , , 100
300, 1.4, 2.8
--FCE , , ,

--SOFC , 100, 200

-- SOFC- , ,

--2012 95,000
--2012 ,
--2012 205 , 80, 76

103

 SWOT

Strength()

Weakness()

- ,

- ,

- ()

- Supply Chain

-  ` , 100

- 

- ,

- 

Opportunity()

Threat()

- 

- 

-

-
-  Supply Chain

Strength()

Weakness()

- ,

- /

- ,

- Supply Chain

- 

- , ,

-  ,

- , ,
- `
-

104 2013

- , ,

2013

Opportunity()

Threat()

- 

-
-

-  Supply Chain

-
-
- RPS
-

Strength()

Weakness()

- ,

- Supply Chain

- `

- ,

- 

Opportunity()

Threat()

- 

- 

-
-

(3)


--, , , , /

105

--,
--

-- 2011 ,
95%, 60,000 , 750W 2
-- , back-up


-- 09 30
47.6%(700 ) , 600

--12 RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard)

--RPS 100MW
-- CleanEdge RPS

-- SGIP(Californias Self Generation Incentive Program)
renewable kW

--
2006 0.0598GW 2014 8.3451GW CAGR 85.4%



--2013 ,
--2018 ,

-- 2012 3,000 ,

106 2013

2.

DOE 10kW , BOP 60%

1kW BOP

BOP

1,200 1,000 -

Controls
Subsystem
6%

$/kw

800 -

Misc.
Components
Total
13%

Power Subsystem 5%

600 -

BOP/Fuel Processor
Coolant
Subsystem
14%

400 200 -

Fuel Processor
52%

Air Subsytem
10%

100

1,000

10,000

50,000

< 1kW >

Total Power System. $/kWnet

$14,000 -

< BOP >

1kW System

$12,000 $10,000 Cost Margin

$8,000 -

Housing & Final Assembly

Power/Electronics

$4,000 -

Reformer Subsystem
Fuel Cell Subsystem

$2,000 $0 100 sys/yr

1,000 sys/yr

10,000 sys/yr

50,000 sys/yr

< 1kW >

10kW SOFC 36%, MBOP 45%, EBOP 14%

-- 38% , 33% 26%

107

4.5
17.5

13.9

33.3

36.3

8.5
2.7

NRC

MBOP
EBOP
45.2

< 10kW SOFC >

38.0

< 10kW SOFC >

SOFC 45% MBOP 5 ,

20%
< 10kW SOFC MBOP >

MBOP

(%, MBOP )

Heat Exchanger ()

20.1

Water treatment system

10.1

Pre-reformer

6.7

Anode recycle blower

6.7

Heat Exchanger ()

5.4

LCOE
BOP
--
--SOFC
--BOP , ,
--SOFC BOP
, Anode recycle blower , /

-- supply chain

108 2013

2013

FCE MW DFC kW 4,200, 2,400, BOP 1,100,
, / 700
ADG, LFG kW 3,000
59%, 35%, 6%
10,000 9,000 8,000 $/kW Installed

7,000 Cost Reduction is a Combination of

Stack R&D
BOP improvements
Increased Volume
Advances in fuel cleanup
technology

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

2010
30MW/year

2020
100~200MW/year

2030
500~1000MW/year

< FuelCell Energy MW DFC >

6%

17%

Cost Breakdown

57%

35%

FuelCell Module
59%

26%

Fuel Cell Module

BOP
Conditioning installation,
and commissioning

Materials
Overhead
Direct labor

* : National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2010

< FuelCell Energy MW DFC >

109

 LCOE

-- FCE 30MW
70MW $840/kW $440/kW
-- 100MW , $200/kW


--120mW/ 150mW/ $330/kW
BOP
--FCE BOP BOP

-- 30MW 70MW 20% BOP

-- 600MW BOP 40% $400/kW

, /
-- , ,


-- MCFC
15%
< MCFC >
Opportunity

$/kW 2020

$/kW 2030

Natural Gas Cleanup BOP

200

300

Volume Production of Module

440

600

Power Density Increase

330

330

BOP Volume Production

200

400

Conditioning and Installation

200

500

Total Potential Cost Reductions

1,370

2,130

* 2020 70MW/, 2030 500MW/ (: NREL, 2010)

110 2013

2013

--, ,


2010 DOE BOP
$145/kW $25/kW, $230/kW $51/kW

11%

12%

19%

15%

Catalyst & Application

4%

(a) 1,000
$145/kW

7%

6%

GDL
MEA Gaskets
BOS

34%

(b) 500,000
$25/kW
21%

Bipolar Plates

45%

15%

Membranes
12%

* : DOE 2010
< (2010 ) >
$7,000 $6,000 -

Miscellaneous
Hydrogen Sensors
System Controller
Fuel Loop
Coolant Loop
Humidifier & Water Recovery Loop
Air Loop

BOP Cost

$5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 1,000

30,000

(a) 1, 000 $230/kW

80,000

130,000

500,000

Systems per year

(b) 500,000 $51/kW

< (2010 ) >

111

3.

(Scenario1)

R&D
(Scenario2)
/
(Scenario3)

/
kW

(%)

/
kW

()

405

3542 2590

51

4752 4060 1.50.5 5965

35

R&D

403

3544 25120 50.5 4775 40100 1.50.5 5965

36

403

3542 2590 50.6 4752 4060 1.50.5 5965

35

(%)

()

* (REC, FIT)

LCOE

LCOE(/kWh)

250-

200150100500100-

(%)

80

R&D
/
(%)

6040200 2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

< LCOE >

112 2013

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2013

LCOE(/kWh)

10,000-

PEFC
SOFC

PEFC R&D
SOFC R&D

PEFC /
SOFC /

1,000100100-

(%)

80604020 2013

SOFC

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

PEFC

2031

2033 2035

< LCOE >

15
264.0

14
12
195.8

10

O&M(/kWh)

131.8
103.1

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

LCOE(/kWh)

2031

2033

2035

< LCOE >

(, ) R&D

2015

2020

R&D
(Supply Chain )

R&D

2025

2030

2035

, R&D
/ R&D
R&D

Biz Model

113

2015

2020

2025

2035

RPS (2012~2022)

2030

/ , R&D

, , R&D
MCFC /

-- 20 Grid
Parity
PEFC , /,

-- , ,
, ,

-- ,
--
, , ,


-- LNG

114 2013

2013

--
,

,
-- ,
SOFC 2015
--
-- PEFC

-- MCFC

-- 2020 75%, 50%
--
-- , , , ,

-- PEFC
1kW , 120 42%
SOFC
10kW 50, 100kW
2013 , 2015

-- SOFC
SOFC 2020 1MW

-- MCFC
2.8MW 10MW
,

--
,

 , ,

115

4.

R&D ( ) ()
(LCOE)
--, , , , , O&M

KPI
(,,)

(LHV)

35

(LHV)

80

>20,000

/kW

40,000

>75

kW

1,5,10

%, LHV

47

%, LHV

40,000

/kW

5,000

kW

2800

(at 25% rated power)

59

3,120

W/L

620

-20

95

116 2013

2013

,

,

. 9.5
1/5

LNG

117

.
1. (, , )

120

2. 

126

3. 

132

4. 

143

1. (, , )

(1)

2011 5 [K-ESS 2020] , 2020
30%( 14) , 6.4 ,
10 2, 4.4
2012 7 2015 0.5GW, 2020 2GW
, 10% , ESS


ESS
1/3
(AB2514) 2020 5% ESS

2011 5 ESS R&D 2014 2

(2) (2013)


--WPM 2018 20 30%

--SDI 8MWh ESS 2011 10 ESS
2012 KACO ESS MOU
--LG , 2011 ABB
MW ESS , 2012 IBC
MOU
--SK 2011 7 , ESS MOU
, 16kW LiB , 3~150KW
ESS

120 2013

2013

-- 2012 10MWh/ RFB Pilot line 1MWh RFB

, 0.5MWh RFB
, ,
-- OCI , Vanadium redox cuple 10kW
, , 2014

-- , H2, Vanadium 10kW RFB

--LG RFB , ,

-- , , - ,
LiB , ESS

-- (ARPA-E, EPRI ) (AES, AEP) LiB, Flow Battery,
CAES, Flywheels
-- EU 2008 20()-20(CO2)-20( )
,
--RFB 10
MWh RFB
-- Prudent Vanadium RFB
,
-- Prudent GEFC RFB ,
,

-- RFB ZBB, reflow, Primium power
, UNSW()
PNNL() RFB
Spin off
-- RFB M&A R&D
, , Fraunhofer , Spin
off

121

-- Flow Battery ,
Fuel Cell EV RFB .
FBEV(Flow battery electric Vehicle)

SWOT

Strength()

Weakness()

- ,

-  H

- LiB
- LiB ,

Opportunity()

- /BMS

Threat()

- 

- ,

-  ,

ESS
Strength()

Weakness()

-  (source)

-  ,

- ,

- LiB
- RFB ~ MWh
- RFB , Fuel cell

- 

122 2013

- 

-  1 LiB
ESS
,

2013

Opportunity()

Threat()

- , ,

- 

- 

- Post Kyoto CO2

- 

-  3

- RFB
Risk

- ,

- RFB 10

ESS/UPS
Strength()

Weakness()

- KW

- 

Opportunity()
- 

- 

- 

Threat()
- 


- 

- 

- , UPS

123

(3)


-- Ni-MH
, 2013

--
, EV

--
-- HEV/
EV
-- EV, , 2018
177
ESS

-- ,

-- ,
$150/kWh

--2010 78% ,
56%
-- 2015 486
ESS
-- , F/R
ESS

124 2013

2013

ESS/UPS

--
-- Peak cut ESS

--//

-- ESS

-- 4G LTE Emerging


LiB-ESS / TCO , Global
2013 Application
RFB ESS 30% ,
BESS(Battery Energy Storage System) , $150/kWh
, , 20

LiB RFB, Super cap RFB, Flywheel RFB
RFB
ESS
EV LiB EV ESS

/ , (ESS )

--LiB ESS LiB , RFB

125

2.

(Grid)
(RFB, 4) 2013 , CAPEX 1.22/kWh, OPEX 0.95/kWh, LCOE
447/kWh
--(CAPEX) 25%, 2030 20%

-- 21% 2030 13%
-- 0.92 2030 84% 0.15/kWh
.
-- BOP Enclosure 2015

--BOP Control Stack DC BOP Power supply
-- , BOP Control

--(OPEX) 80.8%, 2030 29.5%
--PCS/PMS 10% 2020 3%
-- BOP
, 20 2017 BOP 20%
--
1.40 -

0.450 Stack

BOP/Enclosure
BOP control/BMS
PCS+PMS
(+)

/kwh

1.00 0.80 0.60 -

0.400 -

Battery Replacement

0.350 -

Fixed O&M
Variable O&M

0.300 /kwh

1.20 -

0.250 0.200 0.150 -

0.40 -

0.100 0.20 -

0.050 -

0.00 -

0.000 2013

2015

2020

< Grid RFB CAPEX >

126 2013

2030

2013

2015

2020

< Grid RFB OPEX >

2030

2013

( LiB, 4) 2013 , CAPEX 1.30/kWh, OPEX 1.59/kWh

--(CAPEX) 42%, 2030 69%

-- , Pack+BMS, PCS+PMS, ()
--2013 , 42% , Pack+BMS 21.5%,
PCS+PMS 11.5%, 25%
-- 2030 31%
--2020 250Wh/kg ,
( , )
-- BMS PCS
.
--(OPEX) 81%, 2030 15% .
ESS
1.40 (+)
PCS+PMS
Pack+BMS
Battery Module

1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 -

1.40 1.20 /kwh

1.20 -

/kwh

Battery Replacement
PCS/PMS O&M

1.80 -

1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 -

0.20 -

0.20 -

0.00 -

0.00 2013

2015

2020

2030

< Grid LiB CAPEX >

2013

2015

2020

2030

< Grid LiB OPEX >

( LiB, 1) 2013 , CAPEX 1.90/kWh, OPEX 2.37/

kWh
--(CAPEX) 2013 PCS+PMS 29%, 32%, 2030
69%, 85%

127

--2013 , PCS+PMS 29%, 32% , PCS+PMS 14.7%,

25%
--2020 225Wh/kg ,
( , Gradient )
-- PMS ,


--(OPEX) 57.3%, 2030 5.1%
2.00 -

2.50 (+)
PCS+PMS
Pack+BMS
Battery Module

1.40 /kwh

1.20 1.00 0.80 -

Battery Replacement
PCS/PMS O&M

2.00 -

/kwh

1.80 -

1.50 -

1.00 -

0.60 0.40 -

0.50 -

0.20 0.00 -

0.00 2013

2015

2020

2030

< LiB CAPEX >

2013

2015

2020

2030

< LiB OPEX >

(LiB, ) 2013 , CAPEX 2.81/kWh, OPEX 2.13/kWh

--(CAPEX) PCS+PMS 42.7%, 2030 88.3%
--2013 , PCS+PMS 42.7% , 22.4%,
Pack+BMS 10.0%, 24.9%
-- 2030 24%
--2020 200Wh/kg ,
( , )
-- PCS

128 2013

2013

-- PMS ,

--(OPEX) 56.3%, 2030 36.6%
3.00 -

2.50 -

/kwh

2.00 1.50 -

2.00 -

/kwh

(+)
PCS+PMS
Pack+BMS
Battery Module

2.50 -

Battery Replacement
PCS/PMS O&M

1.50 -

1.00 -

1.00 0.50 -

0.50 0.00 -

0.00 2013

2015

2020

2030

< LiB CAPEX >

2013

2015

2020

2030

< LiB OPEX >

()
2013 () CAPEX 1.3/kWh
--(BMS ) 43%, 2030 77%
-- PCS/PMS 2013 48% 2030 84%

2013 () CAPEX 28%, 15%,
48% 9%
-- 2013 18% 7% 2030 23% 11% .
2013 203021% 79%
2013 66%
-- PCS

129

1.40 -

0.60 -

1.20 -

(BMS )
PCS+PMS

0.40 /kwh

/kwh

1.00 0.80 0.60 -

Variable O&M
Fixed O&M

0.50 -

0.30 0.20 -

0.40 -

0.10 -

0.20 0.00 -

0.00 2013

2015

2020

2030

2013

< LiB CAPEX >

2015

2020

2030

< LiB OPEX >

(UPS)
2013 (UPS) CAPEX 1.96/kWh
--(BMS ) ()

-- PCS/PMS 61.2%, 2030 73%

--(UPS) Calendar
life ,
2.400 -

1.000 (BMS )
PCS+PMS

2.000 -

(BMS )
PCS+PMS

0.800 -

/kwh

/kwh

1.600 1.200 -

0.600 -

0.400 -

0.800 0.200 -

0.400 0.000 -

0.000 2013

2015

2020

< UPS LiB CAPEX >

130 2013

2030

2013

2015

2020

< UPS LiB OPEX >

2030

2013

--(UPS)


2013 CAPEX 0.84/kWh
-- , , BMS, , PCS
--2013 , 60% , 29%, BMS 11%

-- 2030 1/5
--2020 250Wh/kg ,
( , )
--, 2030 500Wh/kg, 60kWh full spec EV
-
, cost down ,
( 47%(2013) 32%(2030))
-- , ,

-- BMS Pack
1.000
BMS
Pack

/kwh

0.800 -

0.600 -

0.400 -

0.200 -

0.000 2013

2015

2020

2030

< ESS CAPEX >

131

3.

(1) (Grid, RFB, 4)

500 LOCE

/kWh

400 -

R&D LOCE

300 200 100 0

2013

2015

2020

2030

2013

2015

2020

2030

60 50 -

40 30 20 10 0

R&D

R&D, /

RFB
RFB

132 2013

Grid Parity

Grid

2013

(Scenario1)

R&D
(Scenario2)

/
(Scenario3)

-  , LCOE 374/kWh 2015 274/

kWh 26%, 2020 138/kWh 60% ,
,

- , , BOP control R&D 2015 253/kWh
32%, 2020 122/kWh 37%
, R&D 2015 M/
S
- LCOE R&D 30% 70% Pilot
,

RFB Pilot R&D .

R&D ,
RFB Cost down

, ,

, BOP, RFB , RFB
90% R&D

ESS R&D
. RFB
, R&D
ESS 30% RFB
1
ESS ,

133

(2) (Grid, LiB, 4)

300

250 -

R&D

/kWh

200 150 100 50 0

2013

2015

2020

2035

2013

2015

2020

2035

kWh/kg

600 400

200

R&D

R&D,
R&D

,
,
RPS (2012~2022)

FIT

(~2022)

134 2013

Grid Parity

Grid

2013

(Scenario1)

R&D
(Scenario2)

-  1cycle/ ,

- BMS SOC ,

- Si SiC GaN PCS

/
(Scenario3)

-
-

ESS 1cycle/ , 10

, SOC .
ESS , ,

SOC ,

Si PCS , SiC GaN
PCS ,

ESS Response ESS On-Off
, Grid
ESS

135

(3) (LiB, 1, )

500

/kWh

400 300

R&D

200

100 0

2013

2015

2020

2035

2013

2015

2020

2035

kWh/kg

600 400

200

R&D

R&D,
R&D

,
,
RPS (2012~2022)

FIT

(~2022)

136 2013

Grid Parity

Grid

2013

(Scenario1)

R&D
(Scenario2)

/
(Scenario3)

-  , Pack , PCS/PMS

-  PCS
.
- 
-  REC ESS ,
RPS

ESS

, Cycles

,

PCS 2020 10%

(4) (LiB, )

2,000
R&D

/kWh

1.500 1.000 500 0

2013

2015

2020

2035

137

kWh/kg

600 400

200

R&D

2013

R&D,
R&D

2015

2020

2035

,
,
RPS (2012~2022)

Grid Parity

FIT

(~2022)

Grid

(Scenario1)

-  Tuning ,
,

R&D
(Scenario2)

/
(Scenario2)

-  PCS
-  , High C Rate

-  () ESS
. 1/10

138 2013

2013

ESS

Cycles , PCS ,

ESS PCS


4 .

(5) (/UPS)]

300 -

LCOE(/kWh)

UPS

240 -

180 120 60 -

2013

2015

2020

2035

240 -

- 18
(Year)

kWh/kg

220 -

-6

(Wh/kg)

200 -

- 14

180 -

- 12

160 -

- 10

140 -

-8

120 -

-6

100

2013

2015

2020

2035

(Year)

-4

139


( R&D,
R&D)

R&D

R&D

/UPS

ESS

FIT

(Scenario1)
R&D
(Scenario2)

/
(Scenario2)

Grid Parity

ESS

Grid

-  UPS ESS

-  , ESS

- UPS ESS
-  UPS ESS ESS

/UPS

,

,


V2G ,

140 2013

2013

(6)

300 -

LCOE(/kWh)

240 180 120 60 0 -

2013

2015

2020

2035

600 -

- 12

500 -

- 10

400 -

-8

300 -

-6

200 -

100 0 -

-4

(Year)

kWh/kg

-2
-0

2013

2015

2020

2035

R&D

R&D

LiB Supply chain

Value chain
BMS, Pack

( )

141

(Scenario1)

-  LCOE 219/kWh 2015 202/kWh 8% , 2020

195/kWh 10% . , ,
250Wh/kg 2020 , Post-LiB
500Wh/kg ,
,

R&D
(Scenario2)

-  Post-LiB R&D LCOE

2020 13% , 2030 15%

/
(Scenario3)

- 
, 2015

, ,
HEV(Hybrid Electric Vehicle) ,

-- ,


-- 2 R&D
,
--

142 2013

4.

R&D( ) ()
(, RFB, 4) 2030 $130/kWh MWh

--RFB 2015
2017 $175/kWh

--RFB Redox couple Vanadium, Zn-Br
, , 2020

-- 10,000 Vanadium RFB 25
, Zn-Br RFB 2030

-- Zn-Br RFB Vanadium RFB 2015 50Wh/kg

-- 90%, 80%
2020 80%, 2030 90% ,
Trade off
-- RFB , RFB

(, LiB, 4)
-- Si PCS SiC GaN
PCS
(, LiB, 1)
-- ESS , PCS 2020
10%
(, LiB, )
-- ESS PCS
,

143

 (, )
-- .
, PCS

(, UPS)
--UPS
. PCS ,

( ESS) 300Wh/kg (200Wh/kg)
, 2030
--
,
2020 250Wh/kg
-- 2030 500Wh/kg
, -, -

144 2013

2013

VRB
Grid
(RFB,

4)
Zn-Br

Grid
(LiB,
4)

Grid
(LiB,
1)

Grid
(LiB,
)

UPS

KPI

World
Champion

75

85

2018

yr(@365/yr)

25

2020

W/L

~23

60

2020

63

75

2016

yr(@365/yr)

10

2018

W/L

85

100

2018

Wh/kg

135

200

2020

(DOD%)

90

98

2020

(CAPEX)

/kWh

140

53

2020

Wh/kg

150

225

2020

yr

2020

(CAPEX)

/kWh

200

68

2020

Wh/kg

135

200

2020

(DOD%)

90

98

2020

(CAPEX)

/kWh

291

115

2020

Wh/kg

140

250

2020

yr

15

2020

(CAPEX)

/kWh

145

58

2020

Wh/kg

140

250

2020

%/
@100%DOD

20

2020

(CAPEX)

210

85

2020

Wh/kg

170

250

2020

yr

10

2020

(CAPEX)

/kWh

84

35

2020

145

.
1. (, , )

148

2. 

151

3. 

153

4. 

155

1. (, , )

(1)

6

--2027 22% 29%
-- 2027 23.6GW 15.3GW,
45% 10.5GW


-- CO2 Near Zero Emission
HSC(Hyper Super Critical)
-- IGCC 650C


--,

(2) (2013)


--600C USC 2008 , 2016


-- CO2 Issue Gas

--, HSC
2017~2020

148 2013

2013

SWOT
Strength()
- 
Knowhow
-  EPC

Weakness()
- USC /
- 

- 600C USC

Opportunity()

Threat()

- 

- 

-  USC

- 

- 

(3)

593C 600C



2009 38% 2035 42% , 2020
700C HSC
OECD ,
2035
Non-OECD 2015 2
,

149

5,000

( : TWh)
4,000

3,000

2,000

Other non-OECD
India

1,000

China
OECD

-1,000
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

< ( : WEO 2011) >

150 2013

2.

CAPEX (, , ), , , /
4 90%
-- 30% , 3 (, , / )

-- Integration

-- USC/HSC (Retrofit)

-- :
95%
:
HSC (, /) (Superalloy)

--
--

7%
21%

AE

18%

T/G

3%

11%

20%
17%

3%

< (2013 ) >

151

1,800
1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

T/G

400

200
0

AE
2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

< >

152 2013

3.

(%)

(/kwh)

(%)

(Scenario1)

43 44

47.2 45.4

70

R&D
(Scenario2)

R&D

43 45

47.2 44.6

100

/
(Scenario3)

44 48

45.4 43.5

100

1,700
(/kW)

1,600

49

(/kWh)

47

(%)

45

1,500

43

1,400

2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

USC /

Retrofit

R&D

/
/
(Superalloy , )
700 HSC
/
Test Plant

O&M
/

153



--CCS R&D
-- , O&M , R&D
-- R&D
-- R&D
R&D
/
BOT /

154 2013

4.

R&D ( ) ()
,
--, Retrofit, , , O&M

KPI
(,,)

600C USC

(%)

90

700C HSC

(%)

70

MW

90

90

/Unit

95

/ ,

C, cm /kg

80

/ ( , )

(%)

60

(%)

75

Integration

(%)

80

( )

(%)

80

(%)

50

(%)

80

//

(%)

80

(%)

90

(%)

80

(%)

90

(%)

85

(%)

75

(%)

80

(%)

85

Retrofit

O&M

155

700C HSC

CAPEX

OPEX

O&M

Integration

156 2013

.
1. (, , )

158

2. 

161

3. 

162

4. 

165

1. (, , )

(1)


-- F (2013~2017)
-- Post-H (2018~2023)
LNG
--
(2014~2020)
-- (2014~2020)

Track Record

LNG

(2) (2013)
SWOT
Strength()

Weakness()

- 
- 

OEM

- 

-  ,

-  LNG

- 

Opportunity()

Threat()

-  10

-  OEM 10
First-Mover Fast-Follower

- 

- 

158 2013

-  LNG OEM

2013

(3)


-- 2011~2035
50% , 2035 14%
-- (LNG)

* , 2035 60%

-- ,

-- Balancing Power


--

--


H
--1990 55% F 60% H

--H 2GT+1ST 1,000MW

F
-- H F

-- F H F
H

159

-- 10 , OEM 2020
Post-H

LNG , 3
--2011 22,416MW(LNG: 20,710MW, : 1,706MW)
28.2%
-- 14,050 MW, 108
-- OEM 35%,
42% 45 GE, Siemens MHI


-- 86 108 9,297
-- $60/kW 4
LNG

--

-- ,

--

160 2013

2.

CAPEX 2012 275,000/kW

20%

20%

12%

28%

12%

8%
< 12 CAPEX >

CAPEX

(1)
(2)

300,000
250,000

/kW

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

< >

161

3.

CAPEX (/kW)

(%)

(Scenario1)

275275

00

R&D (Scenario2)

R&D

275240

030

/ (Scenario3)

275220

070

LCOE CAPEX
300
250

(/kW)
--

(/kW)

(/kW)

-R&D-

-/(R&D )

200
150
100
2010

LCOE(/kWh)

LCOE(/kWh)

--

-R&D-

2015
(F)

R&D

F
(Non-OEM)

LCOE(/kWh)
-/-

2020

2025

2030

2035

(Post-H)

H
(Non-OEM)

F (OEM)

Post-H
(OEM)

( LNG, PNG, SNG )

LNG (+ )

LCOE , LCOE R&D

( )

162 2013

2013

-- ,

R&D
--2013 F ,
2018

--2018 Post-H
LCOE
--
LCOE
/
-- Trans-Siberia PNG
LCOE
,
--
-

--R&D

R&D

1. R&D
2013
-- OEM(GE, Siemens, MHI) (
)
--
-- (2017 )
2017
--2017 2013 H

163

 .
(1) , (2) OEM Nitch

-- OEM Post-H .
, 2013 , Post-H
OEM

-- 2022 GE, Siemens MHI

2. R&D
-- 10 R&D Non-OEM
D
-- F Non-OEM
R&D
--2013 2017
10 H Non-OEM

-- Non-OEM OEM
F Post-H

3. R&D
-- (Preventive Maintenance)
(Predictive Maintenance)
--

-- IT R&D

164 2013

4.

R&D ( ) ()
(LCOE)
--, , , , , O&M

KPI
( ) (,,)

MW

400(1x1)

50.62

46.45

30

27

165

. IGCC
1. (, , )

168

2. 

175

3. 

177

4. 

179

1. (, , )

.
(1317)

14 IGCC(4,000MW) , 2014 50 25,000MW IGCC

,
IGCC
--, , CCS
IGCC
-- IGCC CCS, CTL, SNG
()
-- IGCC
-- (Shell, GE, Uhde, Conoco-Phillips,
MHI)
-- IGCC KEPCO Uhde PSG

IGCC 2020 3 IGCC, 4 SNG

1011
-- 300MW IGCC 6
2017, 2019 1 300MW IGCC 2020 IGCC 3,
POSCO SNG 1 4 SNG
--300MW IGCC , , , 2015

-- 500MW IGCC ,

168 2013

2013

(1835)

, ,
-- , ,
, 2030 250 GW( 8,300)
* : Global IGCC Power Market and Strategics, 2007, EER

-- 22 35% (11 : 18.7%)

(IGCC)
--, CO2 CCS , 2020 IGCC

2020 IGCC IGCC+CCS

--, 27 12% IGCC

IGCC+CCS

R&D
IGCC + CCS
--

--IGCC + CCS 2 Track
EPC (1st Track)
- 2006~2016: IGCC
/ IGCC EPC

- 2017~2025: IGCC
IGCC /
IGCC + CCS
- 2026~2030: IGCC

IGCC

169

- 2030 :
(2nd Track)
- 2006~2016:
Test-bed /
/ /
- 2017~2025: Scale-up
Demo /
/ / upgrade
- 2026~2030:
/
/ /
- 2030 :

IGCC+CCS

2013

2015

2020

IGCC

2025

IGCC /

2030

2035

IGCC
IGCC+CCS

< IGCC + CCS >

2013

2015

Reference Plant
Reverse Eng/
/

2020

2025

500MW IGCC +CCS

2030
500MW IGCC
+CCS

< IGCC + CCS >

170 2013

2035

2013

. (2013)
SWOT
Strength()
-  200
(
)

Weakness()
- 1.5
- IGCC

- CO2

- Pre-FEED FEED

-  (, , ,
)

- , , IGCC

- IGCC
-
-

Opportunity()
- 

-
-
- IGCC+CCS
-
Threat()
-

-  (, , , )
- 


-
- IGCC CO2
-
CO2 ,
-
- IGCC+CCS CO2
- Lurgi, Uhde
6 IGCC

- IGCC, SNG 2020 10~11
- (USC)

-
- CCS
- 
-

- 1 0.8~2

- 

- 

IGCC

171

.

2020 IGCC 20, SNG 5,
20 ( 22 , : 1/1)
2007 2012 12% 9%


< >
2007

2012

% Change

Operating Plants

142

159

+11.9%

Gasifiers

420

435

+3.5%

~ 56,000

~ 61,000

+8.9%

Coal

55%

61%

Pet. Resid.

32%

29%

Chemicals

44%

52%

Liquid Fuels

30%

28%

Power

18%

13%

Capacity (MWth)
Feed Stocks

Products

: Brief Overview of Gasification Industry (GTC Kingsport Workshop, 2012)

-- IGCC 2006 300 MW IGCC
(2015 11 , Shell )
-- Uhde 2011 7 Joint Venture Uhde
IGCC, CCS SNG , , R&D

172 2013

2013

--, , , ,


Vision 21

--2012 (CCRP : Clean Coal Research Program) 400
163(DOE 59)
-- TRL2~6 , CO2

Shell, Siemens, Uhde
--Shell Nuon Buggenum IGCC (: 1994~2013, 2013 4
) Uhde Puertollano IGCC
2020 +CO2 CO2
HypoGen
--2007 2013 500 FP7(7th Framework programme)
ZEP(Zero Emissions Platform) 2.5
10

NEDO New Sunshine
--1970 NEDO New Sunshine Clean Coal Technology
R&D CO2 CO2


-- 1980 GE Energy, Shell, Lurgi Siemens
, 20 /
1990 250,000 /

-- OMB(Opposite Multi Burner) , TPRI(Thermal Power
Research Institute) , Tsinghua , HT-L , MCSG , ICC

IGCC

173

 GreenGen (IGCC+CCS)
--1(2006~2009): 250 MW IGCC
--2(2010~2012): IGCC poly-generation R&D
--3(2013~2015): GreenGen

2012~2017 76,000 MW IGCC
20,000/ petcoke poly-generation (85%
, ) 2012

,
IGCC +CCS ZeroGen

174 2013

2.

IGCC
IGCC(without CCS) 2013 2,120 /MW
-- // 53%

13%

17%

6%

15%

3%

8%

9%

29%

< 13 IGCC(without CCS) >

IGCC(with CCS) 2013 3,110 /MW

-- ///CO2 66%

9%

11%

32%

16%
3%
12%

7%
4%

6%

CO2

< 13 IGCC(with CCS) >

IGCC

-- , , CO2 IGCC

IGCC

175

2,500

2,000

/kW

1,500

1,000

500
0

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

< IGCC(without CCS) >

2,500

CO2

2,000

/kW

1,500

1,000

500
0

2013

2015

2017

2020

2025

2035

< IGCC(without CCS) >

--2017 260320MW, 60%

--2020 ASU ITM(Ion Transport
Membrain)

176 2013

3.

3

Without CCS

With CCS

(Scenario1)

RPS

10695 2,1201,700 4245 135120 3,1102,500 3540

R&D
(Scenario2)

R&D

10686 2,1201,546 4250 135106 3,1102,267 3543

/
(Scenario3)

IGCC+CCS

(/kWh)

(/kW)

(%)

10680 2,1201,400 4252

(/kWh)

13590

(/kW)

(%)

3,1101,850 3545

IGCC(Without CCS) LCOE,

2013 2015
2,200
(/kW) 2,100

2020
LCOE

2025

2035

1,900
1,700

1,500

2013

2017
/

R&D

IGCC
EPC
(IGCC/SNG)

IGCC RPS

IGCC+CCS

2020

106 LCOE
(/kWh)
100

50
(%)
48

95

46

90

44

85

42

2025

2035

500MW IGCC

IGFC

IGCC+CCS

ITM
ASU

GT

IGCC+CCS

IGCC+CCS

IGCC

177


R&D ,
(CCS ) IGCC+CCS 2020

, R&D IGCC , ,
,

2020
IGCC+CCS

178 2013

4.

R&D ()
(LCOE)
--
--
IGCC , , (ITM) ASU
IGCC+CCS
300MW IGCC
KPI
(%)
()
(,,)

Engineering

(%)

70

(%)

50

10

( )

(%)

70

10

IGCC

IGCC

(%)

70

10

IGCC

70

10

IGCC

Availability(%)

70

10

IGCC Simulator

System

70

SOx, NOx, Dust

50

10

IGCC

/
,

KPI
(%)
()
(,,)

70

//

80

/
,

55

10

,
,

55

10

70

65

/


IGCC

IGCC Stripper, ,

/
,

55

10

/
,

70

60

10

IGCC

179

 500MW IGCC

Ref. IGCC
Reverse Engineering

(%)

70

300MW Ref. IGCC

Upgrade

(%)

50

10

500MW IGCC

(%)

70

10

500MW .

(%)

70

10

500MW IGCC
/

70

10

500MW IGCC
/

(%)

70

10

Ref.

500MW
EPC

KPI
(%)
()
(,,)

500MW
IGCC

Hybrid IGCC

CO

IGCC+CCS

CO
,

IGCC+
Syngas

SNG
/

IGCC+

IGCC+

(%)

H(%)
(%)
H(%)
CH4 (%)
(%)
(%)
(hr)
(%)

KPI
(%)
()
(,,)
40

10

10

15

40

15

30

10

60

10

50

10

180 2013

182

(Acronym)

185

()

LG

()

KETEP

()

KETEP

PD

()

KETEP

()

KIST

KETEP

PD

()

KETEP

()

SK

ENERTECH

KETEP

PD

()

KETEP

()

CCS

()

KETEP

(Acronym)

AEP(Annual Energy Production)

AE(Architectural Engineering)

APT(Apartment)

APU(Auxiliary Power Unit)

ASU(Air Seperation Unit)

Back Contact Cell

BESS(Battery Energy Storage System)

BM(Business Model)

BMS(Battery Management System)

BOP(Balance Of Plant)

BOS(Balance of System)

BOT(Build Operate Transfer)

CAES(Compressed-Air Energy Storage)

CAGR(Compound Annual Growth Rate)

CAPEX(Capital Expenditure)

CCG(Combined Cycle Generation)

CCS(Carbon Capture & Storage)

COE(Cost of Energy)

COS(Carbonyl sulfide)

CRF(Capital Recovery Factor)

CTM Loss(Cell to Module Loss)

DC(Direct Current)

DFC(Direct Fuel Cell)

DME(Dimethyl Ether)

DMFC(Direct Methanol Fuel Cell)

DOD(Depth of Discharge)

EBOP(Electrical Balance of Plant)

EPC(Engineering, Procurement & Construction)

ESS(Energy Storage System)

(Acronym)

EVA(Ethylene Vinyl Acetate)

FBEV(Flow Battery Electric Vehicle)

FCE(Fuel Cell Energy)

FEED(Front-End Engineering and Design)

FIT(Feed in Tariff)

GDL(Gasdiffusionlayer)

GT(Gas Turbine)

HEV(Hybrid Electric Vehicle)

HHV(Higher Heating Value)

HSC(Hyper Super Critical)

HVDC(High Voltage Direct Current)

IBC(Interdigitated Back Contact)

IGCC(Integrated Coal Gasfication Combined Cycle

power system)

IGFC(Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell)

ITM(Ion Transport Membrain)

LCOE(Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation)

LHV(Lower Heating Valve)

LiB EV(Electric Vehicle)

LNG(Liqified Natural Gas)

LPG(Liquified Petroleum Gas)

M-BOP/MBOP(Mechanical Balance of Plant)

MCFC(Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell)

MEA Gaskets(Membrane Electrode Assemblies )

MHI(Mitsubishi Heavy Industry)

MMA(Methyl methacrylate)

NETL(National Energy Technology Laboratory)

Ni-MH

Non-OEM(Original Equipment Manufacture)

O&M(Operating & Management)

(Acronym)

ODA(Official Development Assistance)

OEM(Original Equipment Manufacture)

OPEX(Operating Expenditure)

()

PCS(Power Converter System)

PEFC(Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell)

PMS(Power Management Systems)

PNG(Pipe-line Natural Gas)

PNNL(Pacific Northwest National Lab)

Pre-FEED(Front-End Engineering and Design)

PTC(Production Tax Credit)

R2R(Roll-to-Roll)

REC(Renewable Energy Certification)

RFB(Redox Flow Battery)

RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard)

SE Cell(Selective Emitter)

SMP(System Marginal Price)

SNG(Synthetic Natural Gas)

SOC(State of Charge)

SOFC(Solid Oxide Fuel Cell)

SS(Sub-station)

T/G(Turbine/Generator)

TOC(Total Operation Center)

UNSW(University of New South Wales)

UPS(Uninterruptible Power Supply)

USC(Ultra Super Critical)

V2G(Vehicle-to-Grid)

VRB(Vanadium Redox Battary)

WPM(World Premier Material)

10

2013

2013 12

135-502 114 14
.