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Introduction
he European Union was founded during the Cold War. The initial political efforts that
lead to the 1951 Treaty of Paris founding the European Coal and Steel Community began
years before the start of the Korean War. If European integration was not a product of the
Cold War, the path of its development was nevertheless critically shaped by it. Avoiding a
nuclear conflagration was the overriding imperative for all state leaders in Europe. European
integration helped create political opportunities exploited by west European leaders such as
French President Charles de Gaulle to pursue their security objectives (Wenger 2004: 26-27, 31).
For some, such as Chancellor Willy Brandt in West Germany, these included dtente with East
Germany and its Moscow patrons through his Ostpolitik (Ackerman 1994). The specific
contribution of west European integration to dtente in Europe is a topic of debate (Mueller
2011). Deepening and widening west European integration during the Cold War had a significant
effect on elite perceptions in the Soviet bloc. These began with perceived threat from increased
coordination of perceived American and European capitalist aggression (Cutler 1980). By the
mid-1980s, European integration came to be seen as part of the foundation of Gorbachevs New
Thinking (Rey 2004). The violence attendant in the Balkans with the end of the Cold War was
one of a series of postwar turning points in the development of the EU. The European
Community encountered great difficulties in attempting to influence the contestants in
disintegrating Yugoslavia. It was a critical factor contributing to the inauguration of the Common
Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) in the Treaty of Maastricht agreed in 1992 (Nugent 2010,
379-80).
Immediately prior to the global economic recession that intensified in 2008, a European
Parliament deputy declared the existence of an autonomous European Union foreign policy.1 He
inferred its existence from the ability of the EU to resist, on the one hand, US pressure to support
Georgian and Ukrainian NATO admission. On the other hand was the ability of the EU to
support an anti-ballistic missile defense installation on Czech and Polish territory. The EU also
undertook to supervise Kosovos independence declared in February 2008, both over Russias
objections. Subsequently, in August 2008 Russia intervened with massive military force in
Georgia on the side of South Ossetian and Abkhazian nationalist separatism. 2 In September 2009,
the Obama administration publicly renounced its predecessors plans to base an anti-ballistic
missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.3 Illustrating the EUs dependence on the US,
the Obama administration had to push the EU to act to save the Eurozone in the depths of the
world economic recession. 4 Recently, media reports have noted the weak significance of the
EUs CFSP in relation to current violent international crises. 5 The EUs Common Security and
Defense Policy (CSDP) was renamed from European Security and Defense Policy with the 2009
Lisbon Treaty. It was to be a focus of the December 2013 European Council meeting in Vilnius,
Lithuania. 6 It was overshadowed by the refusal of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to
sign an EU Association Agreement at a November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit also in
Vilnius.7 It triggered the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and in North Atlantic-Russian relations.8
Analysis of the obstacles to the development of the EU CFSP and a concomitant CSDP
should include an explication of the assumptions behind the EUs CSDP. 9 The lack of consensus
on the relationship of the EU to United States foreign policy aims and objectives is a significant
Andrew Duff, MEP, Behold a European foreign policy! At last weeks Nato summit in Bucharest (April 3-4) the
European Union asserted itself under Franco-German leadership, Financial Times (Opinion), April 9, 2008. Accessed
August 24, 2013. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1f233442-04a5-11dd-a2f0-000077b07658.html#ixzz2buQ9fd9d.
2
Daily Mail Reporter, Georgia 'overrun' by Russian troops as full-scale ground invasion begins, Mailonline.com
(undated). Accessed August 14, 2013. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043236/Georgia-overrun-Russiantroops-scale-ground-invasion-begins.html#ixzz2bucD4Vmb.
3
Peter Baker, White House Scraps Bushs Approach to Missile Shield, New York Times, September 18, 2009.
Accessed on August 14, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/18/world/europe/18shield.html?_r=0
4
Tony Barber, How Washington pushed Europe to save the euro, Financial Times, October 10, 2010. Accessed on
October 10, 2010. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ed137b4-d2f0-11df-9ae9-00144feabdc0.html.
5
e.g. Judy Dempsey, E.U. Refuses to Cooperate on Security, New York Times, June 10, 2013. Accessed on July 11,
2013.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/world/europe/11iht-letter11.html?_r=0; Laurence Norman, Foreign Policy Puts
Europe on Defensive, Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2013. Accessed on July 11, 2013.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578513491521001304.html.
6
European Commission, Towards a more competitive and efficient European defence and security sector, European
Commission>Enterprise and Industry>News [sic]. Accessed on August 30, 2013.
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/newsroom/cf/itemdetail.cfm?item_id=6844. The Common Foreign and Security Policy had
been a focus of the July-December 2013 Lithuanian EU Presidency following EU commitments made earlier: Lietuvos
Respublikos Seimas, Lithuanian Presidency ofthe Council of the European Union1 July 31 December 2013,
PARLIAMENTARY DIMENSION: Upcoming key event of the parliamentary dimension of the Lithuanian Presidency
of
the
Council
of
the
EU,
August
19,
2013.
Accessed
on
August
30,
2013.
http://www.lrs.lt/intl/presidency.show?theme=125&lang=2&doc=1182.
7
The third Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius. Lithuanian Presidency of the European Union Archives. 02
December 2013. Accessed January 11, 2015. http://www.eu2013.lt/en/vilnius-summit; Derek Fraser, The Refusal of
President Yanukovych of Ukraine to sign at the EU Vilnius Summit on 28 to 29 November, the Association Agreement,
including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the European Union, December 3, 2013.
Accessed on January 7, 2015. http://www.eucanet.org/.
8
Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, Press conference after the European Council. EUCO 269/14
PRESSE 672 PR PCE 237 Brussels, 18 December 2014. Accessed January 11, 2015.
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/146436.pdf
9
ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY - ITALY SATISFIED WITH RESULTS OF AUGUST 27 ESDP MEETING, 2003
September 2. Accessed on August 30, 2013. http://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/03ROME3976_a.html. The ESDP
evolved out of the European Security and Defense Identity debate over whether to have a command-and-control
bureaucratic structure separate from NATO, which was rejected in the Berlin Plus agreement at the Prague 2002
European Council (Howorth 2009, esp. 103).
1
source of the challenge the EU faces in developing the CFSP and CSDP (Calleo 2003, 20-23).
Clarifying these assumptions is necessary for a critique of their contribution to peace in Europe
and the world. Students of the EU have characterized European integration as a peace strategy for
Europe and its surrounding regions (e.g. Lehne 2014, 3-5). The purported challenges to this
peace need to be explicated and clarified to critique the EU and its integration promotion
policies. One of these challenges is the relationship of the EU to Russia. This relationship, in
turn, is a product of the EUs relationship to the US if only because the Cold War political
context shaped the development of the EU (Petrovsky 2005, 67). US Marshall Plan aid helped
kick start west European policy integration (Urwin 2013, 15). The end of the Cold War witnessed
the inability of the EU to prevent the violent disintegration of Yugoslavia, a de facto Western ally
in the midst of the geographic region of Europe. 10 Questions emerged regarding the post Cold
War relationship of the US to Europe and to the world. 11 Specifically, the relationship of the EU
to US foreign and security policy became a focus of debate (Cogan 2011: 261-62).
This analysis aims to make a contribution to that debate by illustrating that a significant part
of it revolves around differing perceptions of the ultimate, respective motivations for US and
Russian foreign policy (Ibid. 263, 265). It highlights that political struggles over the function and
form of the CSDP are significantly contests over the definition of the global political situation
confronting the EU. These competing worldviews ultimately reflect different perceptions of the
sources of US and Russian international conduct. These disagreements, however, continue to
affect the general developmental direction of the CSDP as the security arm of the EUs CFSP.
The EUs policy-making process responds to and reconciles the conflicting political pressures of
varying political weight within the EU to produce its output. This analysis aims to direct some of
the attention in the debate towards questions regarding implicit assumptions about the forces
driving US and Russian foreign policy.
The lead up to and consequences of US policy in Iraq since the September 11, 2001 attacks
underlines that US foreign policy is problematic. If the EU aims to correct US foreign policy,
then it needs to develop the power capability to do so. Figure 1 (below) is a schematic
representation of the role of power in the form of diplomatic bargaining leverage in international
relations. EU leaders have a vast array of power capability resource factors at their disposal, but
they are relatively lacking in the mobilizational prerequisites to create power instruments out of
such capabilities (please see Figure 1 below). The EU demonstrated that it lacked the ability to
come to a common position on whether to support the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. In
sum, the EU as an international actor appears still to be the European successor component of a
US-led alliance in opposition to Russia, the successor state to NATOs Cold War Soviet
adversary. While Putins Russia may or may not be a continuing challenge to international peace,
the same question should be raised regarding the US. To portray the consequences of these
differing assumptions regarding US foreign policy motivation, three different ideal-type
viewpoints of the European regional situation confronting the CSDP are portrayed. The analysis
then outlines the differing policy implications of these differing views. The analysis concludes
with comparative inferences regarding what contemporary foreign policy debates as portrayed in
the media reveal regarding these assumptions.
Alan Riding, Conflict in Yugoslavia; EUROPEANS SEND HIGH--LEVEL TEAM. New York Times, June 29, 1991.
Accessed on January 9, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/1991/06/29/world/conflict-in-yugoslavia-europeans-send-highlevel-team.html
11
Joseph Fitchett, A Mitterrand Legacy:Fall-Off in Relations With U.S. New York Times, January 11, 1996. Accessed
on January 9, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/11/news/11iht-france.t_1.html.
10
Figure 1: Schematic Representation of Actor Power and Foreign Policy Influence (Cottam and Galluci 1978, 9).
Figure 1 portrays the capability base of an international actor. It consists of the power
potential base (including resource base and mobilization base), the power instrumental base (the
governmental and military programs for generating influence abroad), and the bargaining base
(the target government's perception of the capabilities of the agent government, which the agent
government may or may not be using. They collectively comprise the capability base of an
international actor. The capability base translates into the bargaining leverage system: the level
of diplomatic interaction.
The EU today collectively has a fairly modest prevailing capability self-image partly
because it is not a nation state and is therefore relatively weak in terms of mobilization base. As
elaborated upon below, the multinational EU alliance cannot behave nationalistically. 12 On the
other hand, one benefit of European integration is that it serves to lessen suspicion that the EU as
a multinational actor is itself serving to promote particular European nationalistic interests. It
consequently has a greater potential to avoid conflicts with their source including suspicion of
pursuit of particularistic, European national advantage. Yet, to the extent that the EU is perceived
as dependent on the US for its cohesion, it may be vulnerable to suspicions that it is a
handmaiden of US national foreign policy objectives.
A nation state is a state in which the overwhelming majority of citizens show their primary
self-identification with the community delineated by the state territorial boundaries (Cottam and
Cottam 2001, 2). They demonstrate primary self-identification through allegiance to it above any
other identity group or community. Demonstrating allegiance refers to behavior manifesting a
willingness to sacrifice material and other values on the behalf of the political status of the
community, including its self-determination.
Nationalistic actors demonstrate a greater predisposition to see a greater range of
opportunistic policy options than may exist in reality. For example, the authorities of Hitlerian
Germany collectively saw Germany as having the requisite capability to pursue successfully the
policy option of establishing a German world empire. The following constitute the elements of
nationalistic behavior of a nation state, such as the US, China and Russia (but not the USSR or
the EU), according to Cottam and Cottam. First, nation states such as France, the US, Russia and
China will show a stronger inclination to see a threat from others and a greater tendency to see
the threatener in stereotypical terms which show a high degree of simplification (2001, 13).
Second, a greater likelihood exists that the leaders of a nation state will advance and consider
seriously the option to expand state influence at the expense of other actors. Third, a greater
tendency will exist among the publics of nation states to show a motivational preoccupation with
the objective of ingathering communities: irredentism. Fourth, the public in nation states will
display a greater concern with maintaining face and dignity. They will also show a greater
willingness to take action to rectify the affront that they perceive. Fifth, the public of a nation
state will show a greater likelihood to be susceptible to grandeur interests. Sixth, in order to
enhance the power of the state, effective appeals by state leaders to the citizenry to make
sacrifices may occur and leaders of nation states will show greater effectiveness in their appeals
in this regard. These sacrifices include a willingness on the part of the citizenry to become part of
the armed forces. Seventh, the commitment of the military to the defense of the state will be
more intense. Eighth, the citizenry of a nation state will demonstrate a greater likelihood to grant
state leaders greater decisional latitude in defending state interests. However, the citizenry will
show a lesser likelihood of granting them the decision latitude to accept defeats or the loss of
face (Cottam and Cottam 2001, 3-4). In sum, the governments of nation states are relatively more
likely both to see and to respond more intensely to perceived challenges in the form both of
external threats to and opportunities for the nations state. Concomitantly, they are also more
12
Iskra Kirova, The European Union, A Quiet Superpower or a Relic of the Past? Media Monitor Reports, March 30,
2007, University of Southern California, USC Center on Public Diplomacy. Accessed on July 3, 2009.
http://uscpublicdiplomacy.com/index.php/newsroom/specialreports_detail/the_european_union_a_quiet_superpower_or_
a_relic_of_the_past/.
likely to oversimplify in their image perception of the sources of those perceived challenges, i.e.
to stereotype their motivations, capabilities and leaders (Cottam and Cottam 2001, 98-100).
In regard to Figure 1, few images are more long-lived and persisting than are capability
images. Although the factors comprising a state's power potential base are constantly in flux,
state leaderships examine only occasionally the alteration in capability base that they produce.
They do so mostly when the course of events produces results that state leaderships did not
expect because of the extent power imagery. The British withdrawal east of the Suez Canal in the
Middle East following the 1956 intervention there was one such event (Coles 2006: 102, 115;
McCourt 2009, 462). Often a major time lag exists between capability change and a perception of
that change. Russias defeat in the first Chechen war is arguably another exemplary case
demonstrating the decline of a great power (Zurcher 2007, 81-85, esp. 83). Russias subsequent
intervention in Georgia in August 2008 may have included the intention to reestablish its great
power image status.13
Georgia, as a small actor, has more or less significant bargaining leverage in todays
international political environment depending upon the varying intensity of conflict between the
US, Russia and, increasingly, China. The level of conflict between these three great powers
significantly determines their respective level of their interest in third lesser power countries. A
so-called Great Power is one that the world community should consider as a central actor at the
international system level. It must have the requisite resource base to develop an exceptionally
strong set of power instruments and to generate a strong bargaining base which is not primarily
derivative from the strategies of other states. One interpretation of the CFSP and the CSDP is that
they aim to lessen EU reliance on the US for its bargaining leverage in the post Cold War
international environment. Currently, by this criterion, the EU would not be a Great Power to the
extent that its bargaining leverage system is perceived as having a primary dependency on the US
for its efficacy. EU leaders may wish to develop its own bargaining base independent of the US.
Their ability to achieve it in the short and medium term, however, is questionable; it must have
the ability to mobilize its resources quickly for power instrumental and bargaining purposes. The
EU currently lacks the requisite nationalistic mobilization base to achieve this objective. On the
other hand, it is less prone to perceive relatively more intense challenges. It is also less likely to
stereotype accordingly as a characterization of its prevailing view in its foreign policy making
process. It is less likely to show policy behavior that corresponds with the eight patterns
described above regarding a nationalistic actor, i.e. a nation state.
Americans examining exactly the same Soviet international behavior during the Cold War
era drew opposite conclusions regarding Soviet intentions. Hence these same observers implicitly
portrayed different conclusions regarding the image of the US that prevailed in the USSR. For
example, what was the nature of the challenge that Soviet decision makers perceived when they
decided in December 1979 to occupy Afghanistan and to participate in the removal, and as it
turned out, the death, of President Hafizollah Amin? Was it a move to save a friendly
Afghanistan regime from the subversive efforts of the United States and China and to do so by
helping the regime replace its unpopular leader with one more likely to attract broader support?
Or was it a first step in a move to occupy much of South Asia in pursuit of a highly aggressive
purpose?
Similar questions should be asked in relation to Russias intervention on behalf of Abkhaz
and South Ossetian separatists in Georgia in August 2008. For example, was Moscows move in
Georgia reminiscent of the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia in the late 1930s, i.e. perception
of opportunity due to a perceived lack of will of the other Great Powers to resist? 14 Or, was it
International Crisis Group, Russia vs. Georgia: The Fallout: Europe Report N195 22 August 2008 esp. pp. 17-19,
Russian Motivations Beyond Georgia, Accessed June 15, 2009. http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=
5636&l=1.
14
Mart Laar, a former Estonian prime minister and adviser to the Georgian government, argued so: Echoes of 1930s in
Russian annexation, Financial Times, April 17, 2008. Accessed on September 23, 2008. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/
13
rather motivated by perception of threat from the US and its allies, as was US intervention to
create the Republic of South Vietnam?
The case of the CFSP highlights the relationship of perception of challenge prevailing in a
political system in determining its foreign policy strategy. Perceptual social representations
derived from political experience regarding the relative resources available to an actor also shape
perceptions of self-identity and other (Monroe et al 2000, 437-38). In the case of the EU,
accommodation to a perceived political reality includes perceptions about the EUs relative
bargaining leverage as portrayed in Figure 1. Those pro-EU European observers who see the
EUs power resources as comparatively quite weak would more likely shape self-perception in an
accommodative direction to the US. If US security commitments to the EU are necessary for the
EU to exist, then such an observer is more likely to perceive US foreign policy motivation in a
positive light. Concomitantly, that same observer is more likely to see the motivations of US
opponents negatively. Another, more Euro skeptic European observer will more likely see EU
relative capabilities and bargaining leverage and motivations differently. The latter will also
more likely manifest more complex or even negative perceptions of US and Russian as well as
EU foreign policy motivation.
The EU collectively, albeit unconsciously, adopts its strategy in Eurasia and globally within
the context of the overriding global US war on terror. Assumptions about a targets intentions
influence inferences about an agents appropriate foreign policy aims. Assumptions regarding
intentions generate influence over observations and inferences. Therefore, since the respective
assumptions of analysts regarding intentions of targets will inevitably differ, they are unlikely to
agree on their own governments foreign policy objectives. Explicating ones assumptions about
the respective intentions of the European, American and Russian diplomatic bargaining
contestants is therefore important. It sheds light on the assumptions regarding the debate on the
relationship of NATO to the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and specifically to the
Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). It clarifies the differences in perceived
contemporary challenges, particularly in regard to Russian intentions towards the former Soviet
republics and allies.
Many Russian elites have a predisposition in effect not to view the EU as a great power
actor. 15 It is largely due to the difficulties of EU national foreign policy coordination. These
difficulties are partly the effect of differences between the worldview and values of the different
respective national elite groups and their constituencies. John Thornhill of The Financial Times
highlights the positives surrounding this diversity:
But that process has its advantages too. It leads to a robust and transparent debate
between the EUs 27 members [now 28 with the accession of Croatia in 2013 (BD)] that
ultimately leads to a common approach. Britain, Poland and the Baltic states argue that
the EU must diversify its energy supplies. Germany, France and Italy suggest it would
be folly to isolate Russia. Russias leaders say they want a multi-polar world. The EU is
its embodiment in all its maddening but often useful complexity. 16
The EU is thus more a political club rather than an actor. A nation state such as the US and
Russia, in contrast, is more likely to have a greater capability to rely upon romantic national
symbol manipulation to control the public. It can thereby more readily extract and mobilize
societal resources for pursuing external, foreign policy objectives.
European security. The September 2014 North Atlantic Council statement articulates this
worldview.18
Viewpoint A shares the prevailing US government view that as a secondary challenge,
Moscow will not accept the radical diminution in its global political status. It seeks to reassert its
hegemony over the former Soviet territories in Europe and Asia. The former Soviet Baltic
republics have joined NATO and the EU along with their Russian minority populations. As a
secondary strategic concern, the US authorities will, if forced to choose, acquiesce to a reextension of Moscows authority to a significant degree into other former Soviet territories. The
US will do so in return for Russian assistance against pan-Shia and pan-Sunni political Islam in
the Greater Middle East and elsewhere, serving the US primary strategic objective. Pro-NATO
Turkey plays a critical role in these areas. It is an ally against militant political Islam and a
bargaining leverage base for projecting Euro-Atlantic power into the Caucasus, the Central Asian
republics and in the Middle East.
European ideal-type viewpoint B sees the primary interest of US foreign policy as being
pursuit of national grandeur due to an intensely perceived opportunity for assertion of global
American dominance (Cottam 1977, 31-53). The US primary strategic objective: establish
global American predominance through a global war on terror. Hence, use the opportunity to
fight militant political Islam and pan-Arab nationalism wherever they challenge US regional
political influence to expand this influence. Requisite tactical requirements therefore include
installing and strengthening pro-US regimes in Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and
Iran. They also include support to Israel as the closest regional US ally to permit her maximal
policy option range. This last requires establishing a cooperative Palestinian authority on the
West Bank that acquiesces to Israeli control over Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem. A secondary
strategic general aim is to extend American hegemony further in the Middle East to include
Central Asia and the other areas of the former Soviet Union through the expansion of EuroAtlantic structures and their influence more generally.
Viewpoint B would also identify a set of US secondary strategic objectives towards the
former Eurasian territories of the Soviet Union and traditional Russian allies in the Near and
Middle East. These objectives are similar to those of A. Viewpoint B assumes they serve an
ultimately different high level strategic US aim. However, B relative to A assumes the US as
having a self-image of its comparative capability level that is sufficiently great to allow less
compromise with Russia. Russia expects recognition of its privileged interests in the former
Soviet territories in return for it to isolate Iran. 19 This US capability self-image corresponds with
the perceived policy option range that includes establishing global US hegemony. B assumes
US foreign policy motivation in the direction of national grandeur as partly a consequence of
American prevailing view estimations. These estimates assume that US relative power
capabilities and bargaining leverage including the North Atlantic Alliance are sufficiently
superior to pursue and maintain global hegemony. These capabilities stem from the estimation
that other actors lack the political bargaining leverage necessary to resist ultimate inclusion into
US benign hegemony. Again, pro-NATO Turkey plays a critical role in both areas as an ally
against militant political Islam and pan-Arabism in the Middle East. It is a bargaining leverage
foundation for projecting Euro-Atlantic influence into the Caucasus and the Central Asian
republics. Consequently, the tactical aims in traditional Russian areas of influence which
determine the CFSP and CSDP: a) integrate the Balkans and eastern Europe into Euro-Atlantic
Wales Summit Declaration: Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North
Atlantic Council in Wales, Press Release (2014) 120, Issued on 05 Sept. 2014. Accessed on September 30, 2014.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm, esp. para. 19, 25, 27, 33, 102-4..
19
Globalsecurity.org, Russian Privileged Interests, Accessed on August 29, 2013. http://www.globalsecurity.
org/military/world/russia/privileged-interests.htm, critiquing Russian President Dimitri Medvedevs comments,
Meetings with Representatives of various Communities: Transcript of the Meeting with the Participants in the
International Club Valdai, September 12, 2008, GUM Exhibition Centre, Moscow. Accessed on August 29, 2013.
http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/09/12/1644_type82912type82917type84779_ 206409.shtml.
18
structures; b) support the stability of the secular regimes in the former Soviet republics in Central
Asia and the Caucasus as the first step towards their eventual Euro-Atlantic accession; c)
overturn the pan-Shia Syrian and Iranian regimes. Stabilizing NATO ally Turkey through EU
integration supports these aims as Turkey faces a challenge from pan-Kurdish nationalism
encouraged by disintegration of Syria and Iraq.
European ideal-type viewpoint C assumes the primary determinant of US foreign policy
as the product of capitalistic forces that see an opportunity to advance their corporate interests.
Therefore, the US primary strategic objective is to remove any challenges to the predominance
of US capitalist influence and profit making. This strategic aim requires, in turn, ensuring US
corporate ready access to fossil fuel reserves in the Middle East and Central Asia. A component
of this high level tactical commitment would be to maintain de facto US control over Arabian
Peninsula fossil fuel reserves. To do so, the US counters threats to traditional regimes from panIslamist and pan-Arab nationalist actors.
Viewpoint C assumes a set of US primary tactical aims that appear the same as those that
A and B identify. Viewpoint C infers the same set of derivative secondary strategic
objectives of the CFSP and the CSDP for the former Soviet territories and pro-Russian allies in
the Balkans as viewpoint B. These objectives are due to US political economic hegemony that
the US victory in the Second World War and the Cold War established. European Marxian
viewpoint C assumes the American political economy has colonized the European political
economy. C, however, assumes these objectives serve a different high level strategic US aim.
Like B, C assumes the US as less willing to compromise with Russia in favor of Russias
proclamation of privileged interests in the former Soviet territories in return for Russian
cooperation to isolate Iran. Iranian isolation lessens the threat to Americas pro-business
traditional elite allies in the Middle East. Similar to B, viewpoint C assumes Russia as more
of a long term challenge to American capitalistic political economic expansion throughout
Eurasia. Predominantly Shiite Iran constitutes a challenge to American profit expansion interests
but it is a limited one in comparison with Moscow. European viewpoint C is therefore more
likely to see the EUs CFSP and CSDP as a handmaiden of North Atlantic corporate business
interests. The CFSP and CSDP will help challenge Moscows claim to a privileged sphere of
influence in the former Soviet territories and their bordering regions. Russia will be circumspect
in allying with political Islamic actors against the US. Moscow faces its own challenge from
political Islam in the Caucasus, the Central Asian republics, and among the other millions of
Muslims in Russia itself. As in Georgia and Ukraine, for example, Russia will therefore be more
willing to rely upon use of force. On the other hand, Shiite Iran also has great trade potential for
Russia (and China) to exploit as a consequence. Russia remains primarily an aggressive
competitor for profits with European and American oligopolists and will only cooperate insofar
as it calculates that cooperation serves its corporate profit interests.
European viewpoints A, B, and C all see Euro-Atlantic tactical objectives towards the
former Soviet territories which generate the closely similar immediate behavior patterns. They
disagree on the ultimate strategy aims that they serve. They in turn derive from differences in
interpretation regarding US foreign policy motivation. B and C however, assume a greater
danger from the outcome of US-Russian interaction producing violently conflictual outcomes
than A.
These same three European viewpoints see the strategic and tactical set of aims constituting
the European Unions nascent CSDP accordingly. European ideal-type viewpoint A sees the
primary determinant of EU CFSP being support of European integration trends through
counteracting threats of disruption in a stable North Atlantic alliance. Hence, the EUs primary
strategic aim is to maintain US predominance within the North Atlantic Alliance framework. US
benign hegemony via NATO permits European integration. To achieve this strategic aim, the EU
supports the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) to reinforce continuing US external
10
engagement. The CSDP demonstrates the EU ability to assume responsibility for security in
regions closest to home (i.e. Southeastern Europe and other regions bordering Europe).
European viewpoint A sees a secondary strategic objective of the EUs CFSP to include
counteraction of destabilization of pro-Western alliance, status quo Middle East regimes. This
destabilization stems from militant political Islam and pan-Arab nationalism. This objective
requires, in order of political priority, a) supporting nationalist reformers in the Iranian regime in
their struggle with conservative hardliners, i.e. pan-Shia Islamists, and opposing a rash, US or
Israeli-led military assault on Iran which may lead to regional destabilization; and b)
counterbalancing to the extent feasible the intensification of US support for Israel so as to
promote establishment of a semi-sovereign Palestinian state on the West Bank in confederation
with Jordan. The latter aims thereby to help counteract destabilizing Arab nationalist and
political Islamic discontent which threaten destabilization of political regimes in the Middle East.
Viewpoint A also sees policy towards Russia within the framework of the US primary
perception of threat from political Islam as more determinative of the CFSP and the CSDP than
B and C. This predisposition reflects the stronger foundational role of perception of threat
from a supposedly aggressive, imperialist USSR during the Cold War. Russia, however, is on the
frontline of confronting political Islam, and consequently shares certain cooperative interests
with the US. While maintaining this more complex worldview, the CFSP and CSDP serve the
attractive, soft power aspect of stabilization and extension of North Atlantic hegemony into the
former Soviet territories. It aims to do so while confronting a Russian government that would
inevitably seek to reassert its regional hegemony as it recovers from the collapse of state
socialism. Consequently, the tactical aims in traditional Russian areas of influence which
determine the CFSP and CSDP: a) Integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures the young pro-Western
regimes among traditionally pro-Moscow actors (Ukraine, Serbia, Bulgaria) in the Balkans and
the Mediterranean littoral more broadly; b) Support the sovereignty and stability of the former
Soviet republics in the Caucasus and the secular regimes in Central Asia; c) stabilize US ally
Turkey through EU integration. In sum, strategy towards the former Soviet territories would be
more in accordance with a modus vivendi approach, which the US leads and the EU supports. A
Russia integrated into global capitalist trade and financial flows may receive some concession
over its sphere of influence in the former Soviet territories in return for cooperation in combating
pan-Shia and pan-Sunni political Islam.
European ideal-type viewpoint B, in contrast, sees the primary determinant of EU CFSP
being the perception of a threat from global American national grandeur aspirations. These
aspirations are evident in the trend of US unilateralism including threat and use of force. Hence,
a primary strategic objective for developing a cohesive CFSP with an effective CSDP is to
reduce EU dependency on NATO. The aim is to increase EU bargaining leverage in negotiations
with the US over a wide range of issues. This primary objective arguably requires incorporating
Russia as a prospective EU ally, as French President Francois Mitterrand suggested at one point
(Cogan 2011, 261-63). The secondary strategic objectives with regard to the Middle East as a
main area of conflict are similar to those of viewpoint A.
Viewpoint B is therefore more likely to see Russia as a potential strategic partner, if not an
ally, against a unilateralist USA. However, due to a very strong self-awareness of the power
limitations of the EU, the EU authorities are likely to be quite circumspect in adopting a
containment policy towards the US. This policy is well beyond the policy option range of the EU
and consequently not worth attempting. The ease with which the US polarized the member and
applicant member nation states of the EU in seeking allies for its March 2003 Iraq invasion was a
clear feedback warning (see figure 1).20 On the other hand, the EU may seek to avoid being a
Craig S. Smith, Chirac Upsets East Europe by Telling It to Shut Up on Iraq, New York Times, February 18, 2003.
Accessed on August 27, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/18/international/europe/18CND-CHIRAC.html
20
11
handmaiden for US imperial expansion by resisting the further expansion of NATO. 21 From this
perspective, EU policies would appear to conform with a view that Russian policy is motivated
by a perception of threat from the United States. The EU would act as a mediator towards Russia
to achieve the more modest objective of avoiding Europe becoming a space for political
competition between the US and Russia. The CFSP and the CSDP, therefore, should not appear
as a servant towards NATO policies. Inferring that the prevailing view of Moscow is perception
of threat implies that correctly or incorrectly, Moscow views the US as seeing opportunity. In
this view, Moscow assumes Washington views it as politically unable to resist its perceived
overwhelming bargaining leverage advantage. The critical point is therefore is to prove to
Moscow that the EU is an autonomous, politically significant actor (albeit not a Great Power),
and which is not under the control of Washington. Therefore, the CFSP and its CSDP should
establish a clearly separate command and control system autonomous from NATO. It may avoid
US exploitation of EU resources as a trans-state bargaining lever as part of US influence
expansion into the former Soviet territories. The EU would pursue a strategy more in accordance
with Ostpolitik with Russia rather than modus vivendi.
European ideal-type viewpoint C sees the primary determinant of EU CFSP and its CSDP
being to advance the interests of European corporate and financial actors. Hence, the EUs
primary strategic objective is to create and exploit trade opportunities for European corporate and
financial actors in the Middle East and in the world without damaging US-EU economic ties.
Therefore, a) stabilize pro-business, status quo conservative oil sheikhdoms through establishing
a semi-sovereign Palestinian state on the West Bank in confederation with Jordan; b) oppose US
efforts to isolate Iran economically, so support nationalist, pro-investment reformers in the
Iranian regime in their struggle with conservative hardliners, i.e. pan-Shia Islamists. Also reach
agreements with Iran and Russia to permit ease of exploitation of fossil fuel reserves in the
Caspian Sea basin; c) ensure that European corporations have access to reopened Iraqi resources.
A secondary EU strategic objective is to develop a cohesive CFSP with a CSDP to reduce EU
dependency on NATO. Thereby the EU may increase its bargaining leverage towards the US to
permit the expansion of European capitalist corporate investment.
Viewpoint C sees the CFSP and CSDP as providing opportunities for monopoly capitalists
in the EU to win contracts for defense procurement expenditure which have until now gone to
US suppliers. As with the development of the US Boeing Corporation, Airbus is the civilian
counterpart to the effort to develop a complete European aerospace industry. The pan-European
Eurofighter Typhoon fighter project also seeks to develop European military aerospace
capabilities and profits in this regard. 22 The CSDP would have a particular focus on areas in
which European demand for natural commodities like fossil fuels would be the strongest focus of
concern, including North Africa and Central Asia. The Balkans and the former Soviet territories
are also important insofar as they are necessary transit routes for Caspian Sea littoral oil and gas.
EU political strategy would appear more in accordance with a modus vivendi strategic approach
towards both the US and Russia. Meanwhile, EU monopoly capital seeks to exploit profit
opportunities in competition with American and Russian capital. Again, EU capability self-image
is not at a point to go beyond efforts to maintain EU autonomy in US and Russia competition for
global influence.
All three ideal-type European viewpoints see the EU lacking the power potential base to
challenge or supplant the US directly due to poor mobilization base at this stage. All three
viewpoints see Europe either supporting or resigning itself at present to second place status
John Thornhill, It is time for the west and Ukraine to offer Putin a deal, Financial Times, November 23, 2014.
Accessed on January 10, 2015. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b828fec6-6b30-11e4-be68-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3
ORTQUABf
22
e.g. Tamir Eshel, Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle to be Seouls Next Generation Fighter, August 19, 2013. Accessed on
August 30, 2013, http://defense-update.com/20130819_boeing-f-15se-silent-eagle-for-korea.html. The F-15SE beat out
the Eurofighter Typhoon Tranch 3 offered by the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS).
21
12
Conclusion
How the EU deals with a third actor such as Georgia or Ukraine will depend primarily upon the
prevailing view in the capital centers of the EU regarding the ultimate intentions of the US and
Russia.25 If European ideal-type viewpoint A prevails politically, then the EUs policy towards
the Caucasus and Ukraine will be derivative of EUs support role for the US in the war on terror.
It will do so primarily as it necessitates accommodation with Russia to secure its cooperation in
the Greater Middle East. If viewpoint B prevails, then the EU will likely more willing to
cooperate with Russian hegemony in the former Soviet territories in return for Russian
cooperation to prevent crisis escalation over Irans nuclear program. If viewpoint C prevails
then EU foreign policy will cooperate with Russia on a low tactical level when necessary to
exploit profit opportunities in the Greater Middle East. But the overall thrust will be in
See, for example, Gareth Evans, European Geopolitics After the Russia-Georgia War: The Security Role of the
OSCE, Keynote Address by Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group, to OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, The
OSCE in an Open World: Trade, Security and Migration, Toronto, Canada, 18 September 2008. Accessed July 3, 2009.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5686&l=1
24
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, "Containing Russia: Back to the Future?"
Global Research, 20 July 2007. Accessed July 3, 2009. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6373.
25
With the agreement of Russia and Georgia, the EU established in September 2008 a civilian monitor peacekeeping
mission in Georgia to monitor the ceasefire between all parties as well as promoting cooperation: European Union
Monitoring Mission in Georgia. Accessed August 31, 2013. http://www.eumm.eu/en/about_eumm.
23
13
conformity with the North Atlantic political economy primarily directed from Washington
against Russian efforts to reassert its former regional economic hegemony. Prevailing EU selfimages and therefore the nature and intensity of EU policy towards third countries will be
derivative of prevailing EU views regarding ultimate US and Russian intentions and capabilities.
This critique of the EU as a strategy for peace promotion in the European and surrounding
regions focuses on assumptions regarding foreign policy motivations and relative power
capabilities of self and other. This analysis aimed to help explicate those assumptions to facilitate
critical debate. It did so by applying a conceptual framework suggesting nationalism, defense,
and economic interests as sources of foreign policy. It hypothesized their respective implications
for the foreign policy strategies of the member states within the North Atlantic alliance as well as
Russia. It offered a critique of the EUs CSDP in terms of its fundamental assumptions. While
the foundations of European integration were laid during the Cold War and the latters
assumption of an imperialist USSR, the post Cold War challenges to European security may
include the US. To the extent that the latter is in fact the case, then the EUs CSDP should avoid
promoting the perception globally purposefully or inadvertently that the CSDP is indivisible
from NATO.
Acknowledgement
This article was produced through the support of the research fund of the Catholic University of
Korea. The author would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful
critiques. The author would also like to thank the students at the American University in Bulgaria
and the Catholic University of Korea whom the author had the privilege to teach for their insights
and comments. Any errors are solely the authors.
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