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1391Q4

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CUSUM) 1(

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Plot of Cumulative Sum of Squares of Recursive Residuals
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
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-0.4
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1391Q4

The straight lines represent critical bounds at 5%significance level

CUSUMS) 2(
. 5

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Histogram of Residuals and the N ormal Density

7
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 / / 1931

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Plot of Cumulative Sum of Recursive Residuals
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Plot of Cumulative Sum of Squares of Recursive Residuals

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1.2
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 / / 1931

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5

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* Aram, R . Aram, S .ganbary, R." Short-term and Long-term Factors Affecting the Housing

Price
Bubble in Iran(1370-1389)".2011.2._20 (1).
Banerjee, A., J.J. Dolado, and R. Master (1992), On Some Simple Tests for Cointegration:
The Cost of Simplicity, Bank of Spain, Working Paper, No. 9302. (46,53).
* Krugman, P., and Taylor, Flexible exchange rate... devalvation, Journal of Economics (42).
* Rana, P.B. and Y.M. Dowling." Inflationary effects of small but continuous changes in
effective exchange rates", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 1985, PP. 496-500
(43).
* Rosta, M., F.H. Guillaume and R.K. Mattu. Duration and Convexity of Mortgage Backed
SecuritiesSome Hedging Implications from a Prepayment Linked Present Value Model,
*
*

)edited by Frank Fabozzi., 1987, ChicagoProbus Publishing (40

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Amihud, Y., (2002), Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and timeseries effects, Journal
of Financial Markets 5, pp. 3156.
Arnott. Robert. D. Feifei Li , Katrina. F. Sherrerd, (2009), Clairvoyant Value and the Growth
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4931 / /

Petkova, Ralitsa & Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer,Ekkehart & Genc,Egemen (2010), The timevarying liquidity risk of value and growth stocks, Journal of SSRN

. Value strategies
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. Baker
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*
*
*
*

* Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and Estimation of Dynamic Models Using
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1. Irrelevance Theory
2. Trade-off Theory
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9. Restructuring Points
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12. Static Panel Threshold Models
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14. Generalized Distance Measure
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1 - Jianping Mei,Guojun Wu
2
- Hart
3
- Jarrow
4
- Price Momentume
5
- Corner
6
- Allen and Gale
7
- Asymmetric Information
8
- Wu and Aggarwal
9
- Mahoney
10
- Merrick et al.
11
- Information-based manipulation
16Enron
17Worldcom
14 Action-based manipulation
15
- Bangoli and Lipman
16
- Trade-based manipulation
17
Classifiers
18
Unsupervised
19
Supervised
20
Skewness
21
Kortosis
22
Abnormal Return
23
Wald Test
24
Principle Component Analysis
25
Logit
26
Artificial Neural Network
27
Discriminant Analysis

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.

.

.

* ( .)4791

.43 -4 17
* ( .) 4794
.
* .)4797(
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*
*
*

551

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*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
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*

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Linear Programming
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Gabus, A., Fontela, E. (1972). World Problems an Invitation to Further Thought within the
Framework of DEMATEL. Switzerland Geneva: Battelle Geneva Research Centre
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Harry. M
Karthika Varma & Sunil kumar
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311

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Repository
Hall of Fame

311

Financial Engineering and Portfolio Management

/ Vol.6, Issue.23, Summer 2015

Using Multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO)

algorithms to solve a multi-period Mean-SemivarianceSkewness stochastic optimization model
1

Siamak Mushakhian
2
Amir Abbas Najafi

Receipt: 2014, 11 , 6

Acceptance: 2015, 1 , 14

Abstract
Financial optimization is one of the most attractive areas in decisionmaking under uncertainty. Portfolio selection problem is a classical
financial problem but it relies on three restrictive assumptions. In this
paper, we propose the multi-stage mean-semivariance-Skewness portfolio
optimization problem under transaction cost. Solving the multi-stage
portfolio optimization problem is very challenging due to nonlinearity of
the problem. Having modeled the problem, both particle swarm
optimization and multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO)
algorithm are utilized to solve the presented model. Finally, some
numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the
proposed approach and the feasibility of the MOPSO algorithm.
Keywords: Multi-stage portfolio optimization, Mean-SemivarianceSkewness, Scenario tree, Transaction cost, Multi objective particle swarm
optimization (MOPSO).

1
2

MSc Student, Faculty of Financial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology

Assistant Professor, Faculty of Financial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology

149

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Portfolio Selection Criteria Analysis Using Dematel

Ali mohammadpour1
Akbar mirzapour babajan2

Receipt: 2014, 10 , 27

Acceptance: 2015, 1 , 4

Abstract
The main objective of this study is portfolio selection criteria analysis
using Dematel of Criteria Decision Making Techniques. Society of the
research is the finance and investment of manager belongs to the all stock
companies. And instrument used questionnaires to a total of 15
questionnaires distributed among experts in capital markets, and finally
10 questionnaires were collected to answer research questions and data
analysis methods were used Dematel. The analysis criteria using the
techniques presented Dematel determined that the eight criteria for the
selection of the portfolio, the measure of sales growth for the most affect
on other criteria, and the biggest factor is the weight of the entire system.
Also the price earnings ratio is more affected than other measures. Sales
growth is a weighted measure of the total system. That is the most
important criterion and has the greatest influence on the sorrow of the
whole system.
The results of this study can be used for investment companies,
financial managers banks and banking insurance agencies, researchers
and general investors have implications.
Keywords: Portfolio Analysis, MCDM, Dematel.

1
2

M.A, industrial management, financial Trend, Faculty of Management and accounting, Islamic
Azad University Qazvin, Iran.
Associate Prof., Faculty of management and accounting, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

150

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Linear programming for portfolio optimization with fuzzy

return rates and risks

Maghsoud Amiri1
Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi2

Receipt: 2014, 9 , 25

Acceptance: 2014, 12 , 17

Abstract
Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and
practitioners. The portfolio must incorporate what the investor believes to
be an acceptable balance between risk and reward. The classical
Markowitz model uses the variance as the risk measure and is a quadratic
programming problem, which is difficult to find the global optimal
solution for those problems. Many attempts have been made to linearize
the portfolio optimization problem. This paper presents a linear fuzzy
portfolio selection model with fuzzy return rates and risks, where the
objective is to minimize the downside risk constrained so that a given
expected return should be achieved. Furthermore, the proposed approach
is demonstrated and validated by a numerical example from real stocks
dataset obtainable from Tehran stock exchange market.
Keywords: Portfolio selection problem, Fuzzy programming, linear
programming problem, downside beta

Associate Professor, Industrial Management Department, Faculty of Management and Accounting

Allameh Tabatabaei University
mg_amiri@yahoo.com
2
PhD Candidate, (Corresponding Author) Industrial Management Department, Faculty of
Management and Accounting Allameh Tabatabaei University mahsa.mahboob@gmail.com

151

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Predicting Stock Price Manipulation in Capital Market

Hamidreza Kordlouie1
Farshad Teymouri2

Receipt: 2014, 11 , 8

Acceptance: 2014, 12 , 30

Abstract
The current article aims at developing econometric and network structurebased methods capable of detecting price manipulation in Tehran Stock
Exchange (TSE). Through the sample separation method, a sample population of
415 companies accepted in TSE were singled out. The data on these companies
price and trade volume between 2001 and 2012 was gathered. Performing runs
test, skewness test, and duration correlative test the companies were divided into
the groups of Manipulated Companies (MC) and Non-manipulated Companies
(NC). In order to pinpoint the price manipulation initiation date, the cumulative
return process and trade volumes of the MCs were closely investigated. In this
way, the Logistic Regression Model (logit), Artificial Neural Network (ANN),
Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and
Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) were carried out. Using company size,
information clarity, P/E ratio, stock liquidity in the year prior to the price
manipulation, a predictive model of price manipulation of the TSE present
companies was developed. Finally, the predictive power of the model was
studied, using the data gathered from the sample companies. The predictive
power of logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was
94.1%, and multiple discriminant analysis model was 90.2%; therefore, all of the
3 aforementioned models have a high power to forecast price manipulation and
there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models. It
should be mentioned that the SVM has a margin of error in predicting and
detecting price manipulation; in addition, GMM was incapable of detecting price
manipulation in TSE and was hence decided as inappropriate for detecting MCs
and NCs.
Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock,
Information Clarity.
1
2

Assistant Professor, Faculty of Accounting and Management, Islamic Azad University, Eslamshahr
Branch (Corresponding author) hamidreza.kordlouie@gmail.com
Instructor, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Eslamshahr Branch

152

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The Investigation of Asymmetry in Speed of Capital Structure

Adjustment: Dynamic Panel Threshold Models

Seyed Abbas Hashemi1

2
Davoud Keshavarz Mehr

Receipt: 2014, 11 , 6

Acceptance: 2015, 1 , 14

Abstract
Usually firms have deviated from their target leverage. They may
adjust to target leverage only occasionally, when the benefits of this
adjustment exceed the costs. According to dynamic trade-off theory can
be argued that firms faced different adjustment costs due to their specific
characteristics, so they move toward their target leverage with different
speeds. Hence, in this paper asymmetry in speed of capital structure
adjustment in the listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange, has been
studied. In this paper, information related to 115 firms over the period
2003-2012 was collected and threshold partial adjustment model and
generalized methods of moments estimator, were used. The results show
that firms with large financing deficit, large investment, low profitability
and low earnings volatility adjust their capital structure faster than those
with the opposite characteristics. In fact, these firms have more
motivation for adjusting their capital structure because of encountering
higher financial distress costs or lower costs of adjustment. Generally, the
research results indicate that studies firms move to their target leverage
with different speeds.
Keyword: Target Leverage, Speed of Adjustment, Dynamic Panel
Threshold Model, Dynamic Trade-off Theory, Adjustment Costs.

1
2

Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Isfahan.

a.hashemi2@yahoo.com
MSc. in Financial Management, University of Isfahan, (corresponding author)
d_keshavarz67@yahoo.com

153

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Study of Relationship between liquidity risk and market risk

using returns of growth and value stocks with AHP model
approach in Tehran Stock Exchange
Reza Tehrani1
Kambiz Ansari 2
Javad Habibi Samar3

Receipt: 2014, 10 , 17

Acceptance: 2014, 12 , 23

Abstract
Identify suitable Criteria for selecting stocks that have higher returns with
lower risk of major issues facing investors and investment management by the
principal subjects.Paradigm have been studied in the present study of various
aspects about value and growthinvestment have been studied. This research field
of study consisted of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange, the sample is
of the 131 firms for the period 2007 to 2011.In the first sample by Overall
weight each of the seven measure.(hagen six Factor measure plus P/E measure ).
Through the AHP modelThenThe breakdown and ranked stocks in each of the
years of the study was to analyze the SAW model.Furthermore the importance of
the relationship between risk and return, the impact of systemic risk and
illiquidity risk on stock returns has been studied.
The results show that there is an inverse linear relationship betweenthe
market risk (beta) and the real return on growth stocks. This relationship is
strong and meaningful. On the other hand there is a direct linear
relationshipbetween market risk (beta) and real return on value stocks.
AlsoResults of this research show that there is a positive linear
relationshipbetween the real returns, liquidity risk and growth stocks and value
(both). But the amount and intensity of the relationship betweenliquidity risk and
real Return in the growth companies is much greater than the company value.
Keyword: Illiquidity risk, Systemic risk , value investment, growth investment,
Return per share
1
2
3

Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran

Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
M.A Student in Financial Management, Electronic Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Javad_habibi2010@yahoo.com

154

Financial Engineering and Portfolio Management

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The predictive power of quarterly earnings per share based on

time series and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Models

Hosseyn Etemadi 1
2
Aliasghar Anvari Rostami
3
Vahid Ahmadian

Receipt: 2015, 1 , 6

Acceptance: 2015, 3 , 10

Abstract
Anticipated earnings per share and evaluate the usefulness of past
earnings for forecast, has long been of interest. And for this purpose the
different methods and models to predict future corporate profits are used.
In this regard, the present study, Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (Multilayer Perceptron
MLP) has been used to predict quarterly earnings of companies listed on
the stock market and bonds Tehran Stock, based on quarterly data for the
years 1386 to 1391 was performed. Results showed that Multilayer
Perceptron has a lower error in forecasting the quarterly earnings per
share and also it significantly was more accurate than ARIMA model.
Keywords: quarterly earnings per share, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP),
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA

Associate Professor in Accounting, Tarbiat Modares (TMU), Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)
Professor & Chair Department of Accounting, Tarbiat Modares (TMU), Tehran, Iran
3
PH.D Student, Accounting, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2

155

Financial Engineering and Portfolio Management

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Examines the impacts of the factors affecting on the

subscription warrant use of housing facilities by using Auto
regressive Distributed Lag

Khosro Faghani Makrani1

Receipt: 2014, 12 , 16

Acceptance: 2015, 2 , 6

Abstract
This paper applies examines the direct and indirect impacts of the
factors affecting on the subscription warrant use of housing facilities
price for the period of 2006 -2012 by using Auto regressive Distributed
Lag (ARDL) Banerjee, Dolado & Master Testing approach. The
empirical results reveal at estimated direct impact variables, Land prices
and deposits interest rates privileged, Exchange rate other than inflation is
cointegrated and They have a long term relationship. Land prices and the
exchange rate has a significant negative impact and inflation rate has
insignificant impact on the the subscription warrant use of housing
facilities priceIn Iran. Also at estimate the indirect effects of variables,
Land prices vary because the key variables to be considered as the
dependent variable Represents the conclusion that variable the inflation
rate Exchange rates other than variable deposits interest rates privileged
is cointegrated and They have a long term relationship. Inflation rate
Exchange rates has a significant positive impact and deposits interest
rates privileged rate has insignificant impact on the the subscription
warrant use of housing facilities price In Iran . These variables influence
the market price of the land price variable subscription warrant will
fluctuate as indirectly.
Keywords: subscription warrant , Privileged Account Holders Interest
Rate, Banerjee, Dolado & Master Testing , cointegrated, Auto regressive
Distributed Lag
1

Associate Prof., Faculty of accounting, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Iran

156