QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT

A Macro Experiment De-Stabilizing the Micro

Gordon T Long
4/14/2015

April 2015 Edition

1

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QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT

A Macro Experiment De-Stabilizing the Micro

APRIL MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY

MARKET MESSAGE ................................................................................................................................. 3
I- DEFINING CHARTS ....................................................................................................................................................................11
Defining Chart #2 - Finding the Longer Term Super Cycle Pivot b ........................................................................................... 11
Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 13
Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 13
Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 14
II- TARGETS ...................................................................................................................................................................................18
III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................20
SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
RISK ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................24
NEW-STUDY: US ECONOMIC DATA JUST TERRIBLE .............................................................................................................24
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24
NEW-STUDY: RECESSION AHEAD? ..........................................................................................................................................26
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 27
NEW-STUDY: MARKETS SET UP FOR APRIL 15th TAX CONTRIBUTIONS ..........................................................................30
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30
NEW-STUDY: WHAT KILLS BULL MARKETS ...........................................................................................................................31
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 31
NEW-STUDY: IDENTIFYING RISK REVERSALS........................................................................................................................31
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 31
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................34
VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................35
VIII- GORD'S VIEWS & OPINIONS ...............................................................................................................................................36
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE - NERVOUSNESS........................................................................................................................ 43
MARKET AT HISTORIC HIGHS ....................................................................................................................................................... 48

AN ARTIFICAL EQUILIBRIUM ................................................................................................................... 56

THE IMBALANCE...........................................................................................................................................................................59
ARTIFICIAL STATISTICS & STATISTICAL STUPIDITY .............................................................................................................63
A POLICY OF PRAYER .................................................................................................................................................................68
WHAT TO EXPECT ........................................................................................................................................................................70

April 2015 Edition

2

Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com

Restricted
All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com