Krishia Lynne M.

Nuez
2011-30203
CE 141 - HW 2
1
2a total of3 2,500Total
1. A 3 by 3 trip table representing
trips is Futur
shown in the following
e

table, which is for the base year.

Origin\Destination
1
2
3
Total
Future

400
200
700
1400
200
300
1100
3300
100
200
700
2800
700
700
2800
1400
1
2
3
The next table indicates the origin and destination growth factors for the horizon
year.
Zone
Origin factor
(production)

100
600
400
1100
3300

Ei

Destination factor
(attraction)

Ej

Solution
1
a) Average Factor Method
Ei + E j
T ij =t ij
2
Origin\Destination

t 11

E1 + E 1
E +E
E +E
t 12 1 2 t 13 1 3
2
2
2

t 21

E 2+ E 1
E +E
E +E
t 22 2 2 t 23 2 3
2
2
2

t 31

E3 + E 1
E +E
E +E
t 32 3 2 t 33 3 3
2
2
2

Origin\Destination
1

(1000)

2+3
2+ 4
2+2
(400)
(200)
2
2
2

(600)

3+3
3+ 4
3+2
(200)
(300)
2
2
2

(400)

4+3
4 +4
4 +2
(100)
(200)
2
2
2

Final Answer
Origin\Destination
1
2
3
Total
b) Furness Method
Origin\Destination
1
2
3
Total
Future

1
250
1800
1400
3450

1
100
600
400
1100
3300

2
1200
700
400
2300

2
400
200
100
700
2800

3
400
750
600
1750

3
200
300
200
700
1400

Total
1850
3250
2400

Total
700
1100
700

Futur
e
1400
3300
2800

Multiplying the rows with the origin factor and summing the incoming trips for each
zone
Zone
1
2
3
Origin factor
2
3
4
Origin\Destination
1
2
3
Total
Future

1
200
1800
1600
3600
3300

2
800
600
400
1800
2800

3
400
900
800
2100
1400

Dividing the predicted incoming totals and total incoming trips to get the
destination factor.
Zone
Destination factor

1
0.9166
67

2
1.5555
56

3
0.6666
67

Multiplying the columns with the destination factor and getting the total for each
zone
Origin\Destination
1
2

1
183.33
33
1650
1466.6
67

2
1244.4
44
933.33
33
622.22
22

3
266.66
67
600
533.33
33

Total
1694.4
44
3183.3
33
2622.2
22

Futur
e
1400
3300
2800

Repeating the process until the origin and destination factor is sufficiently close to
unity (within 5%)
Zone
1
2
3
Origin factor
0.826 1.0366 1.0677
(production)
23
49
97
Origin\Destination
1
2
3
Total
Future
Zone
Destination factor
Origin\Destination
1
2
3

1
145.81
73
1646.5
8
1507.6
03

1
151.47
54
1710.4
71
1566.1
02
3428.0
48
3300

2
1028.1
97
967.53
93
664.40
68
2660.1
43
2800

3
220.32
79
621.98
95
569.49
15
1411.8
09
1400

1
0.9626
47

2
1.0525
75

3
0.9916
36

2
1082.2
54
1018.4
08
699.33
8

3
218.48
5
616.78
7
564.72
81

Total
1446.5
57
3281.7
74
2771.6
69

Zone
Origin factor
(production)

1
0.9678
16

2
1.0055
54

3
1.0102
22

Origin\Destination
1

1
141.12

2
1047.4

3
211.45

Futur
e
1400
3300
2800

2
3
Total
Future
Zone
Destination factor

43
1655.7
24
1523.0
13
3319.8
62
3300

23
1024.0
64
706.48
64
2777.9
72
2800

32
620.21
23
570.50
05
1402.1
66
1400

1
0.9940
17

2
1.0079
29

3
0.9984
55

Comparing the results

c) Compute the probabilities of choosing car, bus, and MRT according to the
following hierarchical logit (HL) model:

a) High Nest
V c =3.50.25 t c 0.42e c 0.1 c c

V mt =0.8 EMU

EMU =log[eV + e V ]
b

MRT

b) Mass Transit Nest

V b=0.25 t b0.42 e b0.1 c b

V MRT =0.25 t MRT 0.42e MRT 0.2 C MRT

And for the average variable values presented in the following table: