Campaigning for the Presidential Election has heated-up here in Brazil, even though

Candidates are not allowed to campaign, by law, until July 15th. The Public Works that
the President and Dilma have been inaugurating are making news and getting Dilma
known in a positive light. So much so, that in a recent poll she has improved her rating
in voter’s intentions from 21.7% in late November to 27.8% in February. The major
opposition party, the PSDB has already made many complaints to the Superior Electoral
Tribunal (“TSE”) stating that the inaugurations are clearly political and electoral in
content, but it`s not clear what the TSE could do about it.

Dilma Rousseff

In fact, overlooking the legality and morality of the issue, one is compelled to the
conclusion that the PT’s strategy is very smart given the limitations of their candidate
i.e. a person little known nationally who has never run for public office; who is
associated with the continuing popularity of Presidet Lula, in an economic environment
which continues positive. However, it is also clear that the PSBD is getting punished,
among other things, for the recent floods in São Paulo and will have to react at some
point.

There has been an 8.4% decline in voter’s intentions since November in two categories.
The first is for Ciro Gomes who is the main loser, down 5.6% from 17.5% to 11.9%,
and the other is Undecided electors which are down 2.8%, from 23.2% to 20.4%. The
beneficiaries of these changes are Dilma with her 6.1% jump. Marina Silva of the
Greens who moves up 0.9% from 5.9% to 6.8%, and José Serra who climbs 1.4% from
31.8% to 33.2%.

Questions are circling at present around. Ciro Gomes who insists that notwithstanding
his apparent loss of 32% of his support he will continue in the Presidential race.
Apparently, the opportunity to run against Geraldo Alckmin for Governer of São Paulo,
with President Lula’s support does not, at present, appeal to him.

Ciro Gomes

The other aspect of Ciro Gomes is that if his candidature for the Presidency is not
considered in the polls, his 11.9% is distributed as follows: José Serra, 7.5%; Marina
Silva, 2.7%, Undecided, 1.0% and Dilma Rousseff, 0.7%.
 Divergency in Opinion Polls, February, 2010 (with and without Ciro Gomes)
José Serra 33.2% 40.7%
Dilma Rousseff 27.8% 28.5%
Marina Silva 6.8% 9.5%
Undecided 20.4% 21.4%
Ciro Gomes 11.9%
Source: CNT/Sensus

The tentative conclusions that we reach are that Dilma may have received all of the
support that she is currently going to get from Ciro`s support. Serra is the overwhelming
beneficiary of Ciros`s remaining support. For Serra, the withdrawal of Ciro could mean
victory at the first round (depending upon how the undecided vote). However, its early
days, and Dilma is currently the candidate with momentum.