Professional Documents
Culture Documents
" #
$
&
&
#
'
' $ #
+ *(,
&! +
" #
&
'
+ ! +
( ! (+!
!
(! +.
( +& , '- ! /!
0 -' 1!1
+ *(
,( 2334
+ ! ! +(
!,/ &-5 ,(
$$
! + ( ,( 0
( ') !
!" #
7
"
:
+
# ,
"
,
,
!
":
8
8
(
"
9
:
( <
"
! $7
"
)
;
,;
,
"
; :!
( < ,
#
; *
+
&
"
!
:,
#
/
=#
! $7
"
;8
) = =
1
= :;
#
7 =
?
7
+
>
=
!
>=
7
; 1
+ *(,
&! +
+ ! +
( ! (+!
!
(! +.
( +& , '- ! /!
0 -' 1!1
+ *(
,( 2334
+ ! ! +(
1. TABLA DE CONTENIDO
@1
21
B1
( ! +-(+
+-,
,(
!! + A
(+ C
41
-, !- C
D1
"
(- *
D1@1
"
(- * 0(+(,
D121
"
(- *
F1
( %(! &!
" - &! ! .+ @3
A1
C1
! +!(
( % 9 (-(
! +!(%-
' !
C1@1G9 #
@3
@@
@@
C121G9 #
C1B1G9 #
@@
!
C141G9 #
H @2
7H
C1D1
C1F1G!7
@4
C1A121
; =
C1A1B1 0
*(,
@4
@D
2333H
C1E1G9 #
E1
@B
; H @4
C1A1@1 0
C1@31
; H
7H
C1A1G9 #
C1C1G!
!
@2
=
G9
+( @F
;
@D
7 H @D
=
= H @F
@B
@31
,(9 (,
(+-
, 5 ,( @C
@@1
,(9 (,
(+-
&-5 ,( @C
@21
, !,/ -
@C
@21@1
G9 I
!( !,/ -
@2121
G!7
@21B1
G!7
@2141
G9 #
8
=
G!7
@21F1
G!7
@21A1
=
7
G!
H
@21C1
G!7
@21E1
G!7
=
=
H
7
2B
H 2A
2C
;
=
BB
B4
BF
;
@21@3121
@21@31B1
@21@31D1
@21@31F1
! -
@21@31A1
(6
@21@@121
!,/ -
BF
BA
!:
BC
!:
BA
BE
BE
("
( %
@21@@1@1
&
=
@21@3141
@B1@1
23
B@
@21@31@1
@B1
(6 H
7H
@21@31
@21@@1
@E
H 2B
@2141@1 G!7
@21D1
H @C
BE
% ! ! .+ (
%, (, ("
( % 1J
&
(0 +
-
("
( % 1J
*
43
=
,
K 43
:K 44
FC
8
FE
@B1@1@1
:&
FE
@B1@121
@B1@1B1 -
!:
FE
FE
@B121
A3
@B121@1
A3
@B12121 (
@B121B1
A3
@B12141
@41
A3
+'
A3
(,,
@41@1
(+8L
@41@1@1
=-
:&
7
@41@1B1 !
!:
AD
AE
@4121
C4
@4121@1
@412121 (
C4
(8 =
E3
@41B121
@D1
CD
CF
@41B1@1 - ; =
@41B1B1
M A@
A@
@41@121
@41B1
A@
ED
7 ;
0, &N /5( 0, &N @3A
@33
2. INTRODUCCION
!
)
)
> :
)
7 )
=
; >
= ;;
=
=
( =
#6 > ;
1
>
1
%
=
7
P
8
>
!
:
=
7
7 )
>
:
(
6
(6 O>
7
=
&
7
> ) =
7
)
>
3. RESUMEN
#
)
=
Q
=
(6
;
=
71
:
:
=
:
=
=
=
:
>
7 =
!
7
;
> =
=
:
=
>
Q)
=
=
)
7>
=
: 8
= ;
; Q
>
>
; > =
8
7
>
4. ABSTRACT
-:
: :
:
=
:
:
: )
:
:
=
:
:
: :
P : :
P
Q
:
1
(6
>
<
:
:
:
:
P
P
< :
=
=
;
=
:
:
P
>
<
P
1
=
:
;
: ;
S
=
:
:
==
< 1
P:
:
P: : !
Q:
==
5 :
>
:
P: :
5. OBJETIVOS
5.1.
OBJETIVO GENERAL
8
O
>
)
;
=
!
=
&!(1
OBJETIVOS ESPECIFICOS
8
;
)
;
5.2.
7
) )
7
P
)
7
)
=
;
1
=
=
:
;
!
(
O
1
6. JUSTIFICACIN
=
=
1
=
7
;
=T;
!
Q
=
;
7
P
=
7
=
>
=
=
>:
(
=
71
7
6
>
>
7Q
)
=
=
> !
=
8
7
>=
: ;
7
=
= )
> =
1
7
7
(
:
7
) =
) =
:
;
= )
;
=
=
=
)
=
;;
>
=
#
>
>
=
7
;
)
8
;
=
7
=
7 T
1
>
=
=
1 +
=
>
=
=
=
1
8. CONCEPTOS BSICOS
8.1.
!
)
Qu es riesgo?
7
6=
=#
#6 >
71
;
=
)
;
)
=
1
=
> =
=
)
8.2.
>
=
>
;
=
>
Qu es un modelo?
=
>
: 8
7 )
> 7
>
=
;
!
=
#>
1
)
>
=
=
7
8
=
=
)
)
7=
7
>
=
1
7>
:
;
=
)
=
=
)
;
6
>
)
=
8.4.
=
;;
1
T =
;
;
!
2333 =
)
> !
=
;8
7
1 (
>
=
>
8.3.
7
=
;
;
=
; 7
; 1
1
2333
L
= #
=
=
;
: 8
7M
; 81
1
;
; 7
8.5.
De donde obtiene la Simulacin Monte Carlo su
nombre?
7
!
=
;
=
>
(
!
>
>
Q
1
7
;
;
>
8.6.
1 %
8 = >
@> 2> B> 4> D
=
1 (
=
L=1 1 =
>
1M
F =
;
=
#> =
> =
; )
=
=
>
>
: 8
=
>
=
7
>!
@1
1 !
=
>
> )
2333 =
=
7
=
1
7
!
8
7
1
>
=
;
:
=
)
;;
>
7>
=
; 7
;
1
=
=
1
=
7
7
= #
8.7.
!
=
Qu es la certeza o certidumbre?
;
7
>
=
1 (
1 %
=
;# =
6
>
!
1(
;
=
;;
;
=
=
7>
=
M
=
G9 #
H (
1 %
;
T =
#
8
G!
=
: 8
8>
1 (
1 (
=
;
M
H1
;
L
=
;
1 G!7
= H
8.8.
Cuales son los beneficios de realizar un anlisis de
riesgos con Crystal Ball 2000?
!
: ;
>
=
)
!
=
1
>
=
=
: 8
7
(6
T =
=
: 8
; >
:
1
!
=
!
>
=
8.9.
=
1 +
7Q
;
)
=
L%1(8
1 0
=
!
=
)
;
#
)
=
=
)
1
7
7
=
;
1
: 8
>
;
1 !
=9
=
: ;
7=
6
=
;
8
: 8
8 = >
;
Qu es Optimizacin?
=
7 =
7
)
=
=
>
=
(6 >
(6 1
=
!
=
>
=
;8
; 1
;
;
8.10.
=
>
=9
7=
= 1
8
7
=
7
#
=
)
1 (
= K
1
9. VERSIONES
(
= )
=
5 ;2>
1
=
!
> )
=
=
(
%
!
%
!
=9
7 %
=9
>
7
L
L
+
=
$
2: = ?
?
PPP1
> !
> ! %
=
=
>
!
! - ;M
#
P
#
1 (
=
=
=
=
=
: 8
!
(
*
7
6 K
> =
1(
71
(
)
7
#
= #
5 ;
=
$1
=
=
%
=
7
71 %
7
;
:
=
>=
U:
=
= #
;
=
;
> )
: ;
5 ;1
=
7
;
>
P >
P
)
;
=
)
) = >
$1
=
;
= #
#
$
: ;
)
1
7
1 %
;#
;#
;
@43
: ;
=
-
$1
=
! %
%
=
=9
1M
> =
%
! - ;> =
L
!
!
;
M
%
=
;
7 %
>
8
L
=
=
) =
M
=
!
7
7 L
7
:
7 =
1= >
1
F4
B3
! U,
- 8
433
,
=
L(
! M
C336F33 = 6
7
!
P
>
) = 1
=
5
L M
> 5
P +- 413 5
> 5
P 2333 %
P V%%
(
=
5
(6
(6=
;
; ,
7 =
=
D13
413
EC> 5
<
> 5
% <F
(
P V%
233B1
1L
>
M
=
=
(6
P
=
=
1!
= 1 !
>
)
J
5: U K
>
=
1
(
8
(6 >
6=
=
: 8
7 )
1
;;
=
: 8
;
=
= 1
=
1
6=
' &!" $
=
7
= ;;
8
=
1
&> !
)
;8
8 =
12.2.
P
>
: 8
;
=
=
(6
(6
;
;8 1
%
;
= #
>=
7
>
;8
;
O1 (
=
!
>
=
8
7
! %:
1%
;
!
>
=
:
=
:
;
=
;
;
> )
;
; 7
;;
P
>
:
;
;8
8 =
8 =
T
=
1
7
T
!
=
!
7>
:
(6
M
1
L=
!
;
=
=
;
)
Q
7
;
+! 1
! %:
8 =
;
#
16 >
)
!
1 (
=
)
)
;
)
= 7 L
L
M
> !
>
>
; 81
;
=
8
: 8
> =
7
=
;
!
%
:
12.3.
=
(6
Q
(6
7
=
:
)
)
>
=
=
;
1
(6
=
; 1%
:
>
!
T
(6 1
!
=
;
=
T
;
)
=
!
=
: 1
=
8
6
7
1
;
1
T
!
(,,
(+-
!(
M
> ("
(! - , L
M
1
T!(
M=
T ("
(! - , L
1
M
> =
(
:
(
T !
7 %
(,,
(+7
!
M
>
12.4.
(
Qu es un supuesto?
)
;
: 8
;
>
=
=
(
=
=
;;
J =
= ;
K)
> !
=
;
= ;;
;
; 1 (
= 7
;
= =
=
1
8 =
L!
%:
M
>
>
;8
L
;#
M
1
>
>
1
%
12.4.1.
( =
;
; 7
=
;
(6
;;
8 =
;
! %:
)
>
=
=
8
;
; 7 J
; 7
!
7>
KL
1
L!
L @@M
=
=
> )
@@M
1
=
;
T
1
)
)
;8
=
;; 1 (
=
)
8 = ! %:
1%
L
=
>
>
T
U
6
;
>
>
; 7
:
J
;
=
M
1
;
L @3M
1
=
KL
:
M
1 :
; 7
; 7
1
; )
)
=
B43
7
=
7>
: ;
4F31
=
231
43
:
=
=
=
M
)
1 (
1
>
12.5.
=
=
#> )
+
;
7
!
>
U
>!=
7
=
=
7
7>
=
8
)
)
; 7 &E>
> =
=
: ;
>
M
:
L @4M
1
%
KL
&
L!
#
(6 1
=
;
; 7
@4
&
=
=
L!
=
1 !
=
=
;
;
> *
)
1
Q
=
=
1 (
LWM
L!
>
12.6.
71
=
: 8
1 (
>
= >
U=
7
=M
BE3
;)
; 7 J
%
;
=
=
=
"
J
5: U K
1
;
%
1
L
http://www.decisioneering.com/models/beginner.html
=M !
1
:
BBX1
(6
=
7
W41F@1
: 8
W21DB1 (
; 7
=
: 8
7
;
KL
=M
1
)
=
U=
= #
7 L
M
>)
>:
433
; 7 J
,
=
>
B3X
>
M
)
=
1
=
8
7
%
=
;
=
%
X
J
%
J
(8
L,
7K
7
T
>
#(
@3333
; 7 J
(8
L, M
L
=
(8
=
7M
1
;
=
=
U
Y:
1
;
=
12.7.
Como analizar los resultados arrojados por el cuadro
de pronsticos?
7
8
=
1
>=
#%
1
(
7
=
;
=
7
;
> =
; =
;
=
6
=
=
=
T *(,
= 7
8
=
)
;
>
;
)
L
7
>
=
! %:
=
1
(
=
= 7
=
8
;
)
W@1A31
:
1 %
8 =
C3X
:
;
)
)
:
:
=
;
!
W41F@ )
=
1
!
;
: ; =
;
8
;
!:
M
1
12.8.
;
=
%
1
6
=
:
> :
!:
> =
#
; 7
;
$
J
!
7
!
;
KL
=
1 %
=
L!
%
'
%
L%
>
;
M
;
71
M
>
%
&
=
;
=
; 7
=
A41B X
M
> : ;
= 7
$
L
)
7
>
: ;
>
"
:
)
>
1%
>
8
8
(
+
>
T )
8
>
7
>
8 = >
=
=
>
%
%
)
;
=
1%
=
=
12.9.
;
=
=
:
7
;
; 7
!
J
!
!
=
1
KL!
,=
=
)
)
=
=
=
7 ;
;
=
LZM
1
?
;8
(
$ LZM
>
LZM
>
LZM
>
=
(6
7
;
!
;8
LZM
Q
;
>
:
=
8
8 =
;
$
)
)
#(
71 !
> =
=
7 )
7 2DM
1
=
>
L
=
T
>
:
1
;
:
6=
=
:
;
=
12.10.
Otros recursos
12.10.1.
=
Distribution Fitting
: 7
= 7
J
;
;
)
&
0
=
;
K
1
=
>
; 7 J
&K
12.10.2.
:
Correlated Assumptions
;
7
71 (
:
;8
(6 1
: 8
( ; 7
>
>
=
:
:
)
12.10.3.
( !
Precision Control
%
)
=
=
%
T
1 (
=
!
)
8
= 7
; 7
12.10.4.
Overlay Chart
=
T =
1(
7
7
=
> J
:
; 7
T
(
12.10.5.
*
Trend Chart
T =
;
1 (
7
;
;
> =
;
12.10.6.
=
CB Tools
=
)
=
12.10.7.
7
:
Example Models
:
;8 =
=
#
8 =
:
T
)
=
1
=
7
12.11.
12.11.1.
(
&
B3
8 = >
=
1
=
7
)
;8
= 8
7
=
=
71
;8
WD33 =
( T
B3 43
)
=
=
=
= 8 =
=
71 (
: ;
L
!
=
=
(6 1
>
: ;
J
5: U J
>
7
= 8
>
)
;
=
M
>
W@D1333
>=
;
=
)
:
)
: 8
=
)
:
)
;
;8
: 8
#
=
1 /
;
)
71 !
Correr la simulacin
%
8
=
6=
*
7 !
8 =
" ! +
=
;
(
*
= #
LD33 =
1
= #
>
7
+
: ;
M
>
+
(6
=
=
%
:
=
>
=
7
7>
[- ;1
>
;
, [
=1
=
=
>
=
=
7
=
1 (
=
= ;; >
1 !
W4AD3 =
=
)
7
;
&
=
=
;;
=#
1 !
;
=
;# =
=
W2D3
> )
=
W2333
WA3331
Determinar el beneficio
:
=
;
;; 1 %
=
=
;
>
;;
>
7
$
; 3L
;;
;
8
=
M
(
=
:
;;
=
7>
>
L!
=
8
W3 =
:
8 =
1 !
7 =
7
;
+
&
7 B>
W3M
L0
;# )
6
W2333>
>
1 -
EBX1
=
:
:
;
= 8 )
1
T
)
T
#
;
T
=
(
)
=
U
=
!
8
;
1,
=
>
;
=
7
1
=
:
; 1
;# =
8 1
6
=
;
)
7
!
=
; )
1 (6
= ;
)
: 8
;
8 =
,
[,
7
=
1
: 8
8 =
12.11.2.
(
6
8 =
:
!
:
:
8 =
,
; 1
:4
7
=
*
>
=
= > =
=
=
* P> )
=
= 76
;8
= 1 (
=
$
=
;
&
)
,
;
: =
=
> = ;
=
=
=
=
&
,
=
1
>
=
: :
!
U
)
#6
)
1 ( =
1 !
7>
$
* P
=
1
%
;
8 =
!
: 8
* P =
;8 !
: 8
!
[ (6
7
'
>
=
=
[%
=
=
>
http://www.crystalball.com/models/pharma.html
*
,
7 2B1
:=
: 8
1
Definir supuestos
(
>
=
;
)
;
:
7
@A
0
;
;
;
:
= 7
G!7
=
; )
=
=
=
U
;
;
U
;
)
1 %
>
=
> 0
!
L
;
=
;;
=
1 (
: 8
= ;;
)
!
* P1
; 7
;
>
7 DM
1
H1 (
=
;
7 ;
8 = >
*
,
:
;
(
=
8 = >
=
6=
=
=
,
;
: :
> ;
; > J
WB13331333
> *
J
-
,
!
6
>
8
K
7
6
; 7
= $ =
;
)
W@313331333
WB13331333
W
=
;
K
>*
,
:
)
W D13331333
1
)
!
;
;1
=
8
7
;
;;
%
;
;
1
=
U
1 %
7>
=
=
=
!D
(
> :
=
1(
;
:
J
= 7
;
$ ) ,
:
-+ =
( '
K =
)
>
!D
;
=
=
1
1
; 71
;
;
; 7
6 1 *
WB13331333
)
=
; 7
;
=
; =
) !
>
=
,
:
6
=
!
; B
=
WD133313331
=
=
>
L
)
7
=
(
,
=
:
WB13331333>
=
=
+
;
=
>
J
;
: 8
+
K
=
>
=
;
=
T
: 8
M
1
)
; L8
!
=
M
1
(
=
; D
=
; L-
WD13331333>
!
M
1
; =
; )
7 2F
>
7
>
=
7> !
;
=
>
7 2F1
=
=
=
= #>
!D )
1
: 8
,
!
: =
* P>
=
= $ = ;
=
= ;
> *
W@C13331333>
&
=
1 (
<
=
=T;
1
,
:
=
W@F13331333
W@213331333
=
;; 1
*
!
:
<
>
7
)
; 7
; 7
6 >
;
7
= ;;
1
%
!
<
<
!F
;
=
= 7
;
$
:
) ,
7 -
!
-+ =
1 (
7 -
K =
=
=
;
;
7
7
)
;
;
7
2A>
7
=
=
1 !
=
=
(
,
; @2
=
:
W@213331333>
!
<
= ".
; 1
@F>
(
!
=
<
; @C
=
W@F13331333>
)
#
=
$$ 0
(
;;
W@C13331333>
<
7> !
@F
@2
=
@C1
: 8
)
;
$1 *
!
* P
)
= #
>
&
; !
* P> *
,
:
;
;
@33 =
,
:
=
)
&
=
;
=
=
=
23
=
>
)
T
1 (
= ; > 23X
=
;
7
!
* P=
$1 *
,
:
= #
=
;
=
)
=
8
#6
2DX1
; > J
=
=
; =
G*
,
:
= =
> *
,
:
7
;
)
=
;
;
T
=
L@33M
1
%
K
> *
>)
:
#6
&
7 ;
7Q
)
6
L2DM
J
%
2DX1
!
;
; 7
H1
=
K
>
T
=
!@3
= 7
'*
=
;
(
)
D3XM
1
*
=
$
=
+ =
= ;;
1 L&8
31D
;
L
=
$1M
8
>
= ;;
6
1
;
L
0
(
2DX
312D
; )
=
=
6=
@>
3
=
8>
=
*
;
=
% ;;
:
)
,
=
=
)
= ;;
313B>
BX1
; )
=
&
@33 =
>
=
) *
,
:
@33
=
6=
; 7 ;
1%
; 312D
=
=
2DX
=
;;
(
=
@33> =
; @33
=
=
&
@33 =
; =
7> !
@33>
=
&
3
=
: 8
,
: :
4313331333
=
3X DX
$
) !
* P
;
>
=
7
=
1
<
2DX
=
;
:
=
)
=
=
* P
!
(
1 (
DX
; J
;
;
=
= K
7
;
1 %
=
=
(
=
;;
)
7 =
=
@DX1
=
1
!
;
> :
=
;
=
;
=
;
=
>
=
=
>
B1
=
7
=
=
>
)
> *
* P1 %
=
!@D
= 7
;
L%
(
)
;
8
;
7 B@ )
)
>
1
7 %
=
1 +7
8
; 3X
3X
; DX
(
,
DX
; ADX
:
*
;;
)
=
=
=
*
=
:1
3X
DX =
; U@DX
=
@DX
; UDX
(
%
(
,
DX
; 2DX
=
:
=
2DX
DX
)
=
=
=
*
=
UDX
=
*
@DX
;
;
=
=
+
1
@DX
:
; 7
: 8
T
;
1 (
7 !
1
=
: 8
=
=
<
=
*
;
*
7
,
FCX
FX
2X1 J
+
;
= ;
7
7
=
7
:
CX
K
)
=
=
=
=
;8
7
>
@3X1
> CX>
=
; =
)
>
=
<
DX>
=
*
J
=
,
<
7
K
1 %
%
7
1
;
;
U
;
=
!@E
= 7
7 +
J
+
K =
=
=
=
C133X>
=
; 2X
; CX
CX =
2X =
; 7
)
=
=
;
8
7
; >
; 1
; DX
=
=
=
1
=
DX )
>
;
= 7
; =
7> !
;
)
=
=
Definir pronsticos
;8
DX )
: 8
CX
1
= #
U
U=
1
U =
1(
;
;
:
=
=
7
L!2BM=
>
;;
= ;;
1 (
>
>
=
;
!
* P1
=
=
L!2@M
71 (
>
=
1 %
1
U=
=
=
=
: 8
=
=
;
= #
=
L!@EM
= #
>
=
1%
(
=
U=
(
;
7
;
;
=
!@F\!@E\!231 !
=
$ L!@FM =
=
L!23M
1
1
=
!2@
:
J %
=
=
;
;
7
+ =
1
=
;
= 7
1(
;
1 %
;
;
"
=
>
: 8
;
)
>
; J
)
>
: 8
>
!2B
(
: 8
&
;
L!2@M
1
&
M
>
L!@@
M
>
L!AM
>
&
(
U=
T
;
+
L!DM)
=
:
%
(
=
=
] L!@@Q
!2@U!AQ
U!4U!DM
1(
L!4M !
U=
;
L!@@
:
: 1
;
;
= 7
"
)
=
7
=
= #
; J
= #
=
>
: 8
:
,
=
:>
: 8
Q
=
)
71
Correr la simulacin
!
;
7
7
1
>
)
T
=
7
T1
1
=
7>
=
)
>
=
%
T
7
= 7 $%
1
8 = >
-%
=
7>
J
,
=
; D33
.' '
&[
%
'/
'
K =
&L
1
6
M
>
(L
= 7
'/
M
J
'
0
T
1L
= )
$'
M
; EEE
)
= 1
=
;
> 6
=
7
=
7
1 (
; 1
=
(
L0
( **
M =
>
7 BC
= 7 2"
*
"
>
=
1
7
+ ,&
>
=
; 7
;
U=
;
;
T
=
1 (
=
7
=
) @F
@F =
1 (
=
1
)
=
;
=
)
7
;
7 BC>
> !
U=
6
7
1
T
=
)
:1
>
> )
6
6=
8
(
W@41A :
+
(
=
=
=
!
T
; 1 (
@33X>
)
= ; 1 ,
)
=
;
;
1
;
> =
8 =
;
;
;
)
: 8
1
=
=
=
)
8
>!
=
: >
)
;#
>
)
)
1
=
7 BC>
WB414>
1
=
7
1 %
6
6
7>
T
1 (
=
6
1
=
>
)
71
=
=
*
;
: )
;
=
;
)
;
!
)
=
; 3
-;
(
> =
; 1
;
W313
;
AE1C3X
=
=
=
J
+
AE1C3X1 (
= ;
=
)
6
L@33X
AE1C3XM
1
*
;
=
>=
K
>
;
) *
;
;
: )
W2133313331 !
1
)
,
1
2312X
;
; 2
!
;
7 BE> !
W213
; 1
: =
W2133313331
*
,
=
7
1
=
!
AB1F3X =
;
)
;
=
>!
=
; 4
:
:
=
; )
W4133313331
=
;
*
,
W413331333
=
=
: =
;
=
=
>
7
;
;
1
1
W413
7
;
;
=
!
=
J
&
FFX1 !
W4133313331 *
* P
=
1
7 4@
;
,
=
;
=
1 %
)
7
:
=
=
7> )
7
=
;
>
7
)
=
1
D
:&
!
( -
!:
=
-; =
(
7
7
;
>
http://www.crystalball.com/crystal_ball/cbtools.html
8>
;
>
13.1.
13.1.1.
: &
Batch Fit
:
=
!
!
>
(6
T! : &1
13.1.2.
=
;
>
Matriz de correlacin
:
=
)
) =
Q
=
;8
6
:
=
=
>
>
;
7> =
=
1
13.1.3.
(
>=
8 = 1
Tornado Chart
=
;
;
>
;8
=
>
http://www.crystalball.com/spotlight/spotlight10.html
;
8
=
6
1
13.2.
Herramientas de anlisis
13.2.1.
(
=
Bootstrap
?
=
=
=
>
>
=
1
7>
7
)
13.2.2.
>
>
Escenario de decisin
=
7
7Q
71
13.2.3.
Anlisis de escenarios
>
=
(
=
)
=
)
)
>
13.2.4.
=
=
=
7>
7>
>
7
1
Simulacin Bidimensional:
=
>
=
7
1
(
7>
7
= $
=
;
6=
M
>
)
7
=
;
>
L:
67
>
M
>
=
;
T = M
=
8
1
:
=
1
:
;
M
> =
;
8 =
14.1.
;
)
8
*
;
14.1.1.
=
*
>
L
;;
=
>
>
#
;
>
=
=
T =
1M =
=
:
=
)
7 )
;;
T
;
1
=
>
;
1
8
(
:
> =
7 =
8
1
(
=
7 =
; =
;;
=
>
;
= ;
=
8
> !: U
Q
;
=
=
;
>
>
)
7 )
7
> =
)
>
(6 >
>
Ejemplo
(
;
!
8
;
Q=
=
>
( =
;
;
@EEC
;
=
=
=
; >
;
233B> =
:&
=
!
;
>
:
!-
(6 >
:
: &>
1
B
;
(
2
=
>
=
1
>
=
>
!
:
7
: 8
=
1
= 7
;
7
7
;;
>
1
B
)
=
( =
=
>)
3
= 7
>=
;
=
>
!
(6 >
=
7
1
@1
: 8
=
T,
= 7
;
7
7
^
>=
= 7 ,
:&
8
>
> =
1 %
Ilustracin 52. Vista Statistics. Observese que el coeficiente de variacin es del 9%.
>
: &K
=
$
! %
8
8
;
>
= 71
>
8
7>
>
1
(
=
=
7
;
)
L&
M=
; 7
=
=
WD1233>
)
=
:
=
E@>2X
1
14.1.2.
Matriz de correlacin
)
= >
>
=
=
U=
;
=
;
=
=
=
71
6
=
)
;
6
>
(6
7
7 =
6=
M
>
= L
7
=
8 =
=
Q=
;
7
6=
=
/] @2>B2@4CEEC _ 3>3EACDFCB V@ _ 3>42F4442@ V2_ 3>4DBF4CFA VB
-
V@
V2
6=
VB
6=
;
=
/
67
6=
7
=
7
Q
6= )
;
6=
>
>
7
7
>
Q
6=
=
=
=
@
7
=
7C
=
7
:
6=
;
>
)
=
;
=
7
=
1
)
7
>
6
>
;
;
6
)
;
Mide el grado de asociacin lineal entre la variable dependiente (endgena) y la independiente o exgena,
eliminando el efecto de las dems variables del modelo
!
=
=
7
;
>
>=
>
(
=
= 7
T
!=
7
>
=
)
>
>
=
>
T =
6
7
> =
=
71
7
:
=
=
$
=
: 8
)
=
>
7
;
:
>
1
7> !
8
>=
;
1
Ejemplo
!
8 =
>
=
L
>
6=
7
;
> =
;
7
7
Q
1
7M
=
%
!
8
81
!
;
7>
(6
=
=
:
8
>
=
LEEEM
7 L
1
LK
>
=
D33M
>
K
M
>
7
7 L
= 7
M
1
=
7 =
;
7 DF1
!-
>
7
=
;
;
;#
;
7Q
=
=
1
(
$
=
>
>
233B
2332
7
2333
233@
2333
7
7
1 (
2332
@>333 3>433
233B
@>333
(
=
J
233@
; )
8
)
)
K
7
>
=
=
>
1
>
!
7
1
=
>
14.1.3.
7
=
)
1
=
>
=
; >
;
=
#
>
>
)
7Q
)
;#
>
Q
;
7>
)
=
;
=
#
;
)
;
;
;
J
=
;
;
7
>
= K J
( -
`-
K
1
!:
` =
!:
)
)
: 1
2D3
Tornado Chart
(
=
=
=
>
$
7 =
)
=
(
>
7=
=
6
; >
=
>
7
=
!
;
;
;
>
71
;
;
=
=
7
7 Q=
7
)
=
; )
=
>
#
$
81
(6
>
8
;
=
7
71
7
6
= 1
;
; >
Spider Chart
$
6
=
7 =
)
;
>
;
:
=
;
>
=
7Q
1 !
)
)
= ) $
;
;
71
Ejemplo:
%
8 =
: 8
;
#
>=
;
)
=
;
!-
>
;8
>
!:
L=
>
@
=
BM
1
!
;
=
L=
BM
1!
1
!
B
L
;
@3X
6
= 7M
(
= 7
= 7
=
7
(
#
; 1
=
!:
!:
1
:
=
8
=
-
=
DM
>
=
=
L
L
E3XM
!:
>
=
!:
8 = >
=
;
> =
!:
7
; 81
=
=
!:
;
=
=
;
>
>
:
>
71
8
6
@33X
=
;
>
=
=
=
6
7 =
;
:
1 (
7
;
7
=
;8
=
)
=
;
>
14.2.
Herramientas de Anlisis
14.2.1.
Bootstrap
(
=
#
7
6
Q
:
= 6
)
>
7
=
1
)
=
=
=
>=
;
>
71
=>
>
;
>
6
=
;
7
>
1
7
7
;
1
(6
(
#
#
=
;
7 T
(
=
>
)#
1
7>
;
1
#
=
6
7
=
;
;
>
)
)
:
14.2.2.
Q
)
#
>
7
8
7
71
> =
=
;
>
=
=
7
M
1 %
=
;
71
= 7
=
U5:
)
#
Q
>
7
;
;
;
;
=
=
:
=
71
;
=
=
> =
= =
6
#
=
7
=
7
>
T =
>
(
#
=
#
5
6 >
= ;
#
=
=
;
7
=
El mtodo de la Multisimulacin
(
=
;
=
=
>
= 8 >)
>
;
14.3.
%
=
Ejemplo:
=
=
8 = > )
>
)
:
:
=
;
8
(6
=
:
;
)
)
7
:
;
!
=
=
=
;
7
1
)
Q
8 =
!
=
=
>
=
!;
>
= 7
;8
1
6
=
=#
7>
7
=
#
)
( =
=
D33
B
7
#
=
)
#
1
)
=
> =
>
1!
T,
=
EEX>
=
1
1
>
1
=
@X
;
;
1 !
=
>
=
6
>
>
<
=
>
>
7Q
=;
=
;
>
>
L
7
=
;
(
M
>
6
Q
7
7
;
7 )
;
>
71
=
;
=
>
8
=
>
>
6=
$
B>3A
3>32
<P
3>C2
3>C2
3>32
3>33
3>33
!
3>AC3
U
U
U
U
3>3EA 3>3EA 3>3@4 3>@FB 3>@2B
@>333
U
U
U
U
U
3>3EC 3>3EC 3>2EB 3>3FA 3>@@E
@>333
7
(
U
@>333 @>333 3>@CF 3>@A2 3>EEE
U
@>333 3>@CF 3>@A2 3>EEE
<P
U
U
@>333 3>BFD 3>@CF
^
@>333 3>@AD
!
*
@>333
Ilustracin 64
14.3.1.
7
)
8
;
(
;
;
7
;
7
>
>
=
;
=
=
;
1 +
;
)
71
7
71
%
)
)
>
; >
;
=
=
) =
=
;
8;
=
=9
=9
7>
=
!
>
7
1
:
J
7=
=
:
;
K)
=
1E
J= 9
!
7>
Ejemplo
!
;
!
8
7
= 7 =
=
;
7 =
8
%
;
TJ
>
>
T
EEE1
7
;
!
=
> ;
=
T, 1
^1
= 7
!;8
7>
1
>
)
)
7>
=
>
;
=
!;
=
> )
71
)
;
:
!
:
%
233312>
7 =
>
= 7
;
)
7 )
71 !
1
=
1!
1
=
>
7 L=
>
)
=
T
D33M
1!
L3>44M
L3>4B@@@@@@M
L3>42222222M
L3>4@BBBBBBM
L3>43444444M
L3>BEDDDDDFM
L3>BCFFFFFAM
L3>BAAAAAACM
L3>BFCCCCCEM
L3>BFM
%
L@BD33M
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE @
%
L@BCBB>BBBBBM
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE 2
%
L@4@FF>FFFFAM
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE B
%
L@4D33M
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE 4
%
L@4CBB>BBBBBM
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE D
%
L@D@FF>FFFFAM
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE F
%
L@DD33M
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE A
%
L@DCBB>BBBBBM
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE C
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>C4 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE E
L@F@FF>FFFFAM
%
L@FD33M
3>C@ 3>C2 3>CB 3>C4 3>CD 3>CD 3>CF 3>CA 3>CC 3>CE @3
@
7>
71
>
=
7>
>
7
$
T
>
L
1
7
6=
>
>
)
1M
=
7K
>
>
=
= >
)
=
; 1
7>
)
>
>
#
=
J ;
=
;
=
=
)
Q
:
%
=
T
:
7
7 )
;#
7
;
7 =
> )
7 )
7 7=
=
8
@3
=
=
>
>
= ;
=
= ;
G(
H
= ) $
= ;
=
= 7
; >
;
>
;
=
7
U
*1 1
= ;
(6
= $
>
>
>
a G 8
=
6=
;
;
>
G
>
!=
=
>
=
7
742
>
)
7
=
8
8
>
8
;
%
;
=
7 J
, K
)
; >
71 (
>
=
;
7
8
@D31
;
8
7>
>
=
:
14.3.2.
Anlisis de escenario
>
=
=
)
7 ;
=
=
; 8 L@X1M
%
=
=
=
EE
>
=
7> )
=
;
>
) !
7>
=
L@XM
)#
=
1
Ejemplo
;
J
=
=
=
> ;8
>
=
=
K
>
=
=
>
:
)
> =
=
=
!
!
=
;
:
(
>
=
(6 >
T!>
;8
1
;
!
=
:
Q
7
=
7
=
7
3 @33 =
;8
:
6=
7
=
7 =
;
( =
1 !
>
7>
71
6
233B>
=
;
> =
)
8
1 /
@333
1
,
8 =
=
7
7Q
)
:
=
;8
=
@333
3
@333
>
;
7> =
:
;
)
=
=
7Q
)
=
7
:
;>
=
;
3:
;
=
1
=
Q
=
7=
=
@33> =
@331
%
=
>
>
=#
=
=
76 1 %
)
=
=
=
7
=
(6
EA
(
=
(6
23331
)
) =
(6
EA
2333>
) =
>
;8
;
8 =
=
= 7
>
= >
1
(
;
%
)
)
>
>
8
=
=
>
=
)
7
=
=
=
>
7
)
>
=
1
A1 9
; 1
!
=
, <
$
=
7 L!
7
3>3@X
DX
22X
3>32X
22X
3>3BX
22X
3>34X
DX
2@X
3>3DX
2@X
3>3FX
FX
2@X
3>3AX
2@X
3>3CX
2@X
3>3EX
2@X
3>@3X
2@X
3>@@X
4X
2@X
3>@2X
2@X
3>@BX
2@X
3>@4X
2@X
3>@DX
2@X
3>@FX
3>AF BCD2@BE>C
4333>342D4C DX
2@X
@>FDX
@EX
@>FFX
@EX
@>FAX
@EX
@>FCX
@EX
@>FEX
@EX
@>A3X
@EX
@>A@X
@EX
@>A2X
@EX
@>ABX
@EX
@>A4X
3>AC 4AC33A4>E4
@EX
@>ADX
DX
@EX
@>AFX
@EX
@>AAX
@EX
4333>@@@CE4 DX
@>ACX
FX
@EX
@>AEX
@EX
@>C3X
@EX
@>C@X
@EX
@>C2X
3>AC 4A4B43B>22
BEEE>E4ABE@ 4X
@EX
@>CBX
@EX
@>C4X
@EX
@>CDX
@EX
@>CFX
DX
@EX
@>CAX
@EX
@>CCX
@EX
@>CEX
@EX
@>E3X
@EX
@>E@X
3>AC DDBED@E>F
BEEE>ACAAAF 4X
@EX
@>E2X
@EX
@>EBX
@EX
@>E4X
@EX
@>EDX
@EX
@>EFX
@EX
@>EAX
@EX
(
Q
=
)
=
)
>
)
=
=
=
; ;
)
)
)
7
)
=
7
7
14.3.3.
Simulacin bidimensional
;
7
;
=
=
;
;
=
7
;;
=
)
;
1
(
=
7
=
71 (
=
1
=
*
;
>
>
= $
;
#6
=
=
)
)
7>
;
7 =
; 1
= ; 7
;
>
=
:
;
7
>
@3
>
;
=
7
=
;
=
= ;
(
7 =
71
:
;8
>
=
=
;;
Q
8
7
7
1
(
7
>
)
= ;
=
71
Ejemplo
=
:
)
)
!
)
8
: 8
10
> =
;
)
=
=
8
=
7 ;
:
:
7
(
= 7
; >
;8
)
= 7
= $ >
1!
=
>
7Q
%
@>333 >
EEE>
T! >
;
= 7
;8
1
>
J
, K
T
!
Q=
(6
;
>
1
$
=
=
=
7 =
@33
;
=
7
=
; 1
:
=
=
7
7
;
71
3>C2
, <
LAM
3>C2
, <
LFM
3>C2
, <
LDM
3>C2
, <
L4M
3>C2
, <
LBM
3>C2
, <
L2M
, <
L@M
3>C2
=
7 L!
*
<P
^
!
6
,
FX
DX
DX
DX
DX
4X
DX
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>33
3>33
3>33
3>33
3>33
3>33
3>33
U3>@3
3>@2
U3>3B
U3>3E
U3>3E
U3>32
U3>@@
2>EA
B>2A
2>A3
2>ED
2>CA
B>BB
2>C2
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>3B
3>32
3>32
3>32
3>AD
3>AF
3>AD
3>A4
3>A4
3>AD
3>AF
3>CA
3>CE
3>CC
3>CE
3>CC
3>CE
3>CE
3>@2
3>@B
3>@B
3>@4
3>@4
3>@4
3>@B
3>AE
3>AC
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
%
DXU
@3XU
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
3>AE
@DXU
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
23XU
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
3>C3
2DXU
3>C3
3>C@
3>C3
3>C3
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
B3XU
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
BDXU
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
43XU
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
3>C@
4DXU
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
D3XU
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
DDXU
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
F3XU
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
3>C2
FDXU
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
A3XU
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
ADXU
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
3>CB
C3XU
3>CB
3>CB
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>CB
3>C4
CDXU
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
E3XU
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>C4
3>CD
3>C4
3>C4
EDXU
3>CD
3>CD
3>CD
3>CD
3>CD
3>CD
3>CD
%2
=
L
#
=
=
M
7>
=
)
;
; >
71
(
:
@3D
#
=
7 =
=
>
%2
T
=
>
;
;
:
:
=
;;
>
= $
;
=
=
; 1
( =
=
=
EEXM
1
@3F
7
=
=
7
)
L
@X :
%2
:
=
:
>
8
#
!
;8
;
7>
)
8
7
>=
#6
=
(* + > "
2334>
( 1%
+>
@3A
0 +
>
1Q%
QJ
3 4
1 @U234
J=
,
:1
Q@EEAQ% 1 @UFA
":
J ==
, <
K
> ( 1 ": 5
K
Q@ECCU
K
QF : (
1
233B1 ! ,