Probability Question 1

Suppose that the percentage of students in a certain city who take a music class in a high school is 35%.
In a study conducted by the city, it was found that 40% of high school music students would major in
music in college. In a follow up study, it was discovered that 5% of students majored in music
WITHOUT taking any music classes in high school. Music majors were being selected as candidates
for an interview. What is the probability of selecting a student who studied music in high school given
they are a music major?

Solution:
Drawing a tree diagram will be useful for visualizing the connections between the data
The problem is asking for P(high school music student | music major) and that can be found by

P(high school music student AND music major) / P(music major). The probability of being a high
school music student and a music major is given by 0.35 x 0.40 = 0.14. The probability of being a
music major is (0.35 x 0.40) + (.65 x 0.05) which reduces down to 0.14 + 0.0325 which equals 0.1725.
Then, those values are plugged into the equation: 0.14/0.1725 which yields 0.811. The probability of
selecting a student who studied music in high school given they are a music major is 81.1%.