BAB IV

Simulation Output Analysis

IV.1 Replication Calculation

Tabel 4.1 Simulation Result of 10 Replications

t
a
( n1, )s
2
n

n=

n=(

( 2.262 ) x 5.065 2
)
10

n=13.12 14

From the calculation above, it can be seen that the value of n is 14. Because 14 > 10, so it
can be concluded that it needs 4 additional observations (14-10). The number of replication
needed to test the output is 14 times of replication.
IV.2 Descriptive Analysis
From the simulation result by the 14 times of replication (from the calculation before to
calculate number of replication) is as follows:
Tabel 4.1 Simulation Result

IV.2.1 Point Estimate

n

xi

x = i=1 =78.4
n
Conclusion: Based on the calculation, so the mean value is 78.4

s=

[ x i x ]2
i=1

= 4.4

n1

Conclusion: Based on the calculation, so the standard deviation value is 4.4

Point Estimate is used to know the estimation point of single value from parameter of
interest. Point estimate gives information how accurate to estimate real value of unknown
parameter.
IV.2.2 Interval Estimate
Given:
P = Confidence level = 0.95
a = Significance level = 0.05
n= Sample size = 14
x = Mean = 78.4
s= 4.4
t
( n1, a/2) s
n
hw=
Lower limit =
Upper limit =

( 2.16 ) x 4.4
14

= 2.6

x hw = 78.4 2.6 = 75.8 customers

x + hw = 78.4 + 2.6 = 81 customers

Interval estimate gives information about how far the range from estimate point towards
the real points. Based on the calculation above, it can be concluded that by 95 percentile of
confidence So, t13,0.025 = 2.160. True but unknown mean () is on interval
75.8 customer 81.0