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The Battle for Value, 2004: | FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc. FedBx will produce superior financial returns for shareowners by providing high walne-added supply chain, transportation, business, and related information services through focused operating companies competing collectivels, and managed collaboratively, under the respected FedEx brand, FedEx Mission Statement (Excerpt) We serve the evolving distribution, logistics, and commerce needs of our customers worldwide, offering excellence and value in all we'do. We sustain a fmancialy strong company, th broad employee ounership, that provides «long-term competitive vetem to ovr shareoumers. UPS Mission Statement (Excerpt) On June 18, 2004, the United States and China reached a landmark air-transportation agreement that quintupled the number of commercial cargo flights between the two countries, The agreement also allowed for the establishment of air-cargo hubs in China and landing rights for commercial ailines at any available airport. The pact represented the most draniatic liberalization of air traffic in the history of the two nations, and FedEx Corporation and United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), the only U.S. all-cargo carriers then permitted to serve the vast Chinese market,’ were certain to be the primary beneficiaries of this opportunity. ‘News of the transportation agreement did not come as a major surprise to most observers as U.S, and Chinese negotiators had been in talks since at least February, The stock prices of both companies had been rising steadily since those talks began, "Northwest Airtines served China through both all-cargo and all-passenger services, “This case was prepared by Robert F. Braner and Sean D. Carr a¢.a basis for classroom discussion rather than to illustrate effective or ineffective management. The casc complements “Battle for Value: Federal Express ‘Corporation vs. United Parcel Service of America, Inc” (UVA-F-1115), prepared by Robert F Bruner and Derick Bulkley. Copyright © 2005 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, ‘VA. All sights reserved, To order copies, send an e-mail o sales @dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in Eiesscnte mackamiral nbatornnvine recortine, or otherwise—withowi the a c part One Setting Some Themes financial and analytical raves: The company had about 50,000 ground vehicles, 629 a raft, 216,500 full- and part ine employees, and shipped more han 5.4 million pack * ages daily. United Parcel Service, Inc- Founded in 1907, United Rarct service, Inc. was the largest package-delivery com pany in the ie jidated parce! aelivery» Dot 08 the ground and through the vi, was the primary. Business ‘of the company, although jnereasingly the company Sffered more specialized transportation and logistics gervi0es. nown in the inaustry «8 BIC ‘Bown, UPS had its roots 7" Seattle, Washington, where 19-yearold Jim Casey started a picycle-messenEer ‘service called American Messenger Company: After merging, with a rival fitt> ptoreyele Delivery Company: the company focused on depactment-store deliveries: Sad that emained true, unt the 1940s. Renamed United ‘Parcel Service of Americ ups started an air-delivery SFP" ioe in 1929 by putting packages commercial passenger planes ‘The company entered sts strongest period of growth during the post World War If eeanomic boom and, by 1975, UPS tad reached 2 milesee when it could promise PackAB® delivery to every address in the continental United States. That same Ye the company expanded ontside the country wath 1s frst delivery fF, Cntan, Conese, Tie TLE year, UPS began somvice in West Germany 91 126 of its trademask-brown delivery vans. ‘The Key to the success of UPS, later headquartered #8 ‘Atlanta, Georgia, was eff ciency. According t© BusinessWeek, “Every Tove 1 vimed down so the trafic Teh Bach vehicle was engineered to exacting specifications. And the drivers. endure # daily routine calibrated down to the qninute® But this demand for machinelike pre 4 cision met with resistance BY LpS's heavily unionized labor Force. Of those demands TUS ever Marie Dray said rivers are expected to Keep Prerie schedules (vith hours broken down into hundreds) ‘hat do not allow for variables puch as weather, aff condiions and package vouume. I « reprimanded, and if they" ahead of schedule, their routes 8 they're behind, they Tengthened* in its quest for efficiency, Ups experienced several male’ scrikes resulting fom changes in Tabor practices rand driver requirements 1 August 1997, the 190,000 tear § gers employed at UPS went on stike for 15 days before agreeing to anew five yeu contract. In addition (0 Laree wage increases, the Tew ‘agreement calted For the cre tion of 10,000 new full-Ne jobs and tbe shifting cof 10,000 part-time workers into full-time positions. The strike cost URS $700 milion te Tost revenue, resulting 8 kes than 1% sales growin For the Year (1996) and a decline #2 profits to $909 million {rom §1.15 billion sper Hawkins, “Can UPS Deliver HE Goods in a New World?” usinessWeek @ June Case 4 The Bactle for Value, 2004: FedEx Corp. vs. United Pascel Service, Ine. 57 For most of the company’s history, UPS stock was owned solely by UPS's man- agers, their families, former employees, or charitable foundations owned by UPS. The company acted as the market-maker in its own shares, buying or selling shares at a fair market value? determined by the board of directors each quarter. By the end of the millennium, however, having shrugged off the lingering effects of the stike and having emerged as a newly revitalized company with strong forward momentum, company executives determined that UPS needed the added flexibility of publicly traded stock in order to pursue a more aggressive acquisition strategy. In November 1999, UPS initiated a two-for-one stock split, whereby the company exchanged each existing UPS share for two Class A shares. The company then sold 109.4 million newly created Class B shares on the New York Stock Exchange in an initial public offering (IPO) that raised $5.266 billion, net of issuance costs. UPS used the majority of these proceeds to repurchase 68 million shares of the Cless A stock. Following a holding period after the IPO, Class A. shares were convertible to Class B. and could be traded or sold accordingly. Although both shares of stock had the same economic interest in the company, Class A shares entitled holders to ten votes per share while the Class B shareowners were entitled to one vote. Until the stock split and IPO in 1999, the financially and operationally conser- vative company had been perceived as slow and plodding. Although much larger than FedEx, UPS had not chosen to compete directly in the overnight delivery mar ket until 1982, largely because of the enormous cost of building an air fleet. But after going public UPS initiated an aggressive series of acquisitions, beginning with ‘a Miami-based freight cartier operating in Latin America and a franchise-based chain of stores providing packing, shipping, and mail services called Mail Boxes Etc. (later renamed the UPS Store) with more than 4,300 domestic and international locations. ‘More assertive than ever before, the UPS of the new millennium was the product of extensive reenginecring efforts and a revitalized business focus. While the company had traditionally been the industry's low-cost, provider, in recent years the company had been investing heavily in information technology, aircraft, and facilities to support service innovations, maintain quality, and reduce costs. In early 2003, the company revamped its logo for the first time since 1961, and emphasized its activities in the wider supply-chain industry. “The small-package market in the United States is about a $60-billion market. The worldwide supply-chain market is about a $3.2-trillion market.” said Mike Eskew, UPS's chair and CEO. “It’s everything from the moment something gets made until it gets delivered for final delivery, and then after market, “it's parts replacement””® Sin setting its share price, the board considered « variety of factors, including past and current earnings, ~gamings estimates, the ratio of UPS's common stock to its debt, the business and outlook of UPS, and the 4. The stock price had utside lenders provided some external validation forthe share price. | | mas 3 Part One pe Setting Some Themes By 2003, UPS offered package-delivery services throughout the United States and sn rove than 200 countries and terion “and moved more than 13 million packages hrough its network every day Domestic package operations accounted and documents tl for 16% of revenues in 2002 jntemational (159), nonpackage (9%). In the United tem carried goods having States, it was estimated that the company’s delivery 8 value in excess of 6% of the U.S. gross domestic product.” The company employed 360,000 people (of whom G4% were rjonized), and owned 68,000 ground vehicles and 583 aircraft. ‘At year-end 4334 billion, and $29 biion, respect” pnalytical ratios. The company’s financial conservatism was ref rating. 2003, UPS reported assets, revenues, and profits of $28 9 billion, ly. Exhibit 3 provides ‘UPS's financial and ected in its AAA bond Competition in the Express-Delivery Market “The $45-billion domestic US. package-delivery market could be segmented along al least three dimensions: weight, mode of transit, and timeliness of Servi ‘The weight categories consisted of letters (weighing 0-2.0 pounds), packass® (2.0-70 pounds), find freight (over 70 pounds). The ‘mode of transit categories Were simply air and ground. Finally, time categories ‘were overnight, deferred delivery (second-day), three-day delivery, and, lastly. regular delivery, which ‘occurred four or more days after pickup. ‘The airexpress segment was 2 8 industry, and was concentrated in 12 g25-billion portion of the US package-telivery and packages, overnight and deferred, and vir or airand-ground. While virtoally Al of Fed's business aotivities ere 1 the airexpress segment of the package-delivery industry, only about 22% of UPS's revenues were derived from 1S next-day air business. Fed and UPS's competition ce delivery market foreshadowed 3 for dominance of the $25-billion domestic air-expre: ‘an unusually challenging future Exhibit 4 provides a detailed summed of the major events marking the tO 9 petitive rivalry between FedEx and UPS. Significant dimensions of this rivalry included the following: xustomer focus, Both companies emphasized:theis focus on the costoni ‘This meant listening carefully (© the customer's needs, providing customized solutions 4 rather than standardized products, ana comarniting to service relationships se comapetition. UPS boldly entered the market by undercutting the Prive of by half. But by the tate 19908, tpoth firms had settled int) Exhibit 5 provides a summary og - 2 FedEv’s overnight letter 4. predictable pattern of regular Price inoreases. recent rate increases. + Operational reengineering. Given the intense price: competition, the reduction of ee nc erame a priority. Cost reduction WAS achieved through the exploitation Case 4 The Bartle for Value, 2004: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc. 59 of economies of scale, investment in technology, and business-process reengineering, which sought to squeeze unnecessary steps and costs out of the service process. = Information technology. Information management became central to the opera- tions of both UPS and FedEx. Every package handled by FedEx, for instance, was logged into COSMOS (Customer, Operations, Service, Master On-line System), which transmitted data from package movements, customer pickups. invoices, and deliveries to a central database at the Memphis, Tennessee, head- quarters. UPS relied on DIADs (Delivery Information Acquisition Devices), which were handheld units that drivers used to scan package barcodes and record customer signatures. + Service expansion. FedEx and UPS increasingly pecked at each other's service offerings. FedEx, armed with volume discounts and superb quality, went after the big clients that had previously used UPS withont thought. UPS copied FedEx’s customer interfaces by installing 11,500 drop-off boxes to compete with FedEx’s 12,000 boxes, 165 drive-through stations, and 371 express-delivery stores. UPS also began Saturday pickups and deliveries to match FedEx’s schedule. FedEx bought $200 million in ground vehicles to match UPS + Logisties services. The largest innovations entailed offering integrated logistics services to large corporate clients. These services were aimed at providing total inventory control to customers, including purchase orders, receipt of goods, order entry and warehousing, inventory accounting, shipping, and acconnts receivable. ‘The London design-company Laura Ashley, for instance, retained FedEx to store, track, and ship products quickly to individual stores worldwide, Similarly, Dell Computer retained UPS to manage its total inbound and outbound shipping. ‘The impact of the fierce one-upmanship occurring between FedEx and UPS was clearly reflected in their respective investment expenditures. Between 1992 and 2003, capital expenditures for FedEx and UPS rose at an annualized rate of 34.64% and 36.78%, respectively. During this period, the to companies matched each other's jnvestments in capital almost exactly. (Exhibit 6 provides a graphical representation of the firms’ cumulative capital-investment expenditures.) International Package-Delivery Market By 2004, express cargo aircraft carried nearly 50% of all international trade; measured by value.® Yer throughout the 1990s, international delivery had remained only a small part of the revenues for UPS and FedEx. After making significant investments in devel- - oping European delivery capabilities, FedEx eventually relinquished its hub in Europe in 1992 by selling its Brossels, Belgium, operation to DHL. Analysts estimated that FedEx had lost $1 billion in Europe since its entry there in 1984. FedBx would con timue to deliver to Europe, but relied on local partners. In 1995, FedEx expanded its routes in Latin America and the Caribbean, and later introduced FedEx AsiaOne, a Part One setting Some Themes next business-day Servier’ perween Asian counties and the United States vi hub in Subic Bay, Philippines: a nasket in earnest until 98a, with the aeql> ‘UPS did not break into ational delivery SYSIEMS, sition of 10 Buropean UPS created a system and wacked pack#ars ‘and automatically pilled cesiojoees for OSTOTEE O oe Ce jis international service py 2000. In May 1999. announced that uring the next would account for one ‘more than $1 billion f© expand its cae CE) ee for ests, China swould become the world’s FedEx and UPS. wy 2039. It was already the ‘According to econome and industry ¢XP' second-largest economy within 11 years and the largest ‘work's largest market for anobile phones and @ ey center for the production of textiles, computer chiPs ana other high-tech product ‘Acooraing to recent econo e projections, inter-ASie age wes pone BO" at a rate of 16.8% annually at 30% a year and 10 FedEx and UPS the intfa-China 1 China had been gro9Ng «the next five years et and not through 2005: “the overall market for 2 cargo i ad vo increase at neal that pace fo) focused poumarily on Me jmportfexport_ packs mark ners to pick up and gel parcels within the comm domestic market, UsiNS Jocal p each company would De permitted to own completely (although, by December 2005, package opera a. one industry, SOUS lieved the domestic parcel market was approximately $800 raittion, while China's exportimport mackel Wi early §} pilion. “AS ecomes the WorRSHOP of the workd’” one obser! noted, peering, Factories ‘and Yangtze siver deltas represont both the star of rt battlenec! oe along the Pear the world’s supply chan and the source of Some of its biggest tANSPO ‘The newly announes anow an additions! ed U SChina air service agreement would 195 weekly fights for ij 84 by passengel | each country 11) PY ‘all-cargo carriers ant aisines—sesulting 10 @ total of 249 weekly period. The two counter also agree Prntey. Until tat time, Caines carriers Were senger cariess could fy ont avhen cartiers €S degree of operat Mineta, “This ag zs the RE air-aransportaion Sy UPS and FedEx both welcomed the news. unity for strengthentn veri! supply chains g comin trade between the Uni provided tht” Nyould be granted 2 HENS ed States and China 2m ‘CEO, who added that the ht case 4 The Battle for Vals, 2004 Fed Corp. vs. United Parcel Service Ine a Fred Smith, chair and CBO of Peds, sid, “We think China + expansion plans in the mie of the world’s top facilitate that provess. wer rmge opportunity for the company. We have significam runtry, reflecting is fantastic growth and imigue position a8 0 ranufactoring centers” Performance Assessment ‘Virtually all interested abservers—custome® suppliers, investors, and employees ‘watched the competitive struggle between UPS and FedEx for hints about the next stage of the drama, The convertion’) ‘wisdom was that if a fim were operationally excellent, strong financial performance ‘would follow. Indeed, FedEx had set a goal of producing “superior financial returns” while UPS targeted “a Tong: ter compeli- sad the two firms achieved their goals? Moree did the trends in finan- tive return. cial performance suggest whether Swon performance could be achieved in the furore? s afford several pos- Tn porsuit of the answers t0 hose questions, the following exhibit sible avennes of analysis. EPS, Market Values, and Returns Exhibit 8 presents the share prices, earnings PX share (BPS), and price-eamings ratios for the two firms. Also included is the veannal total return from Tolding each share (percentage gain in share price plus dividend yield). Some analysts questioned the appropriateness of using UPS's Fair market-value share price before the 1999 IPO, ecause it had been set by the board of directors rather than in an open matket Ratio Analysis Exhibits 2 and 3 present a variely of analytical ratios computed from the financial statements of each firm. Economic Profit {Economic Value Added, or EVA™) Analysis EVA refeets the value ereated or destroyed ‘each year by deducting « charge for capital fromm the firm’s net operating prOBit after 12568 (NOPAT). EVA = Operating profits ~ Capital charge (OPAT — (K X Capital) ‘the capital charge was determined by multiplying the cost of capital, K, BY the capital employed in the business of operation. This computation could be done by cither of two methods, both of ‘okich would yield the same answers (Dey a presented 56" in the exhibits for the sake of illustration The operating approach works with the asset side of the balance sheet, and computes NOPAT directly from the income stale works with the right-hand side of the alance sheet, and adjusting net income). ment. ‘The capital approac | computes NOPAT indivetly Ge by pian Roberts, “FedEx Plans Expanded Services in China," Financial Times, Pat One Seuin some Themes Bsrimating Capital Exhibits 9 and 10 calculate the actual amount of capital from. both an operating and 2 capital approach. Included in capital 2% near-capital items that represent economic value employed on behalf ofthe firm, such as the present value of operating leases, amortiaed goodwill, and losses. The rationale for including losses and rece offs in continuing capital 38 that uch Josses represent unproductive assets oF 8 failed investment, Were they a clnasd trom the capil equations te 5° would only onnt successful efforts and would aet pccurately reflect the performance of the firm Estimating NOPAT Exhibits 9 and 10 calculate NOPAT with a similar regard for veers ond wre oe Hee, EATS ve at the actual cash. generale’ by the concern. To do 50, the exbibile ‘add increases in deferred taxes ack into income menuse itis not a cash expense, and caleulate te interest expense of the Jeased oper- ating assets as if they Were leased capital assets. Fetimating Cost of Capital The capital charge applied asains: NOPAT should be based on a blend of the costs of all the types of capital the Br employs, oF the wweighted-average cost of capital (WACC). The cost af debt (used for both debt and jeases) is the annual rare consistent veith each firm’s hond rating (BBB for FedEx and ABA for UPS), The cost of eqaily be estimated in a variety of way’ tn the analysis here, the capital asset pricing ‘model (CAPM)'* was employed. FedEx’s beta nnd cost of equity are used in estima Pedbix’s cost of capital. Because UPS's beta was unobservable, the analysis that follows uses the average annodl Beles for UPS's publicly helé peer firms: FedEx, Air Express, Airborne Freight, Roadway, Yellow Transport, and J.B. Hunt Transpor Estimating EVA and MVA In Exhibits 9 and 10, the stock of capital and the flow of cash are used to calculate the actual sewrn and, with the jntroduction of the WACC, to calculate the EVA. These exhibits present the BVA calculated each year and cum q Taively over time, The panel at the pottom of each exhibit estimates the market value created or destroyed (or the market alue added [MVA)) over the obsex/210% period MYA is calculated as the difference between the current ‘market value of the company nd its investment base. Tbe marke value ereatied could be compared swith cumole tive EVA. In theory, the following relationships’ would hold: MIVA = Present value of all future EVA MIVA = Market value of debt and equity — Capital Thus, Market value = Capital + Present value of all future BVA poke eek fee ate of resen and 9 ARK premlle ah Pots) fo MEL Case 4 The Baute for Value, 2004: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Ine 6 Jn other words, maximizing the present value of EVA would amount to maxi- mizing the market value of the firm, Outlook for FedEx and UPS ‘About 70%" of FedEx’s common shares were held by institutional investors that, it could be assumed, were instrumental in setting the prices for the company's shares. ‘Typically, those investors absorbed the thinking of the several securities analysts who followed FedEx and UPS in 2004. Exhibit 11 contains excerpts from various equity reports, which indicate the outlook held by those anslysts Observers of the air-express package-delivery industry pondered the recent per- formance of the two leading firms and their prospects, What had been the impact of the intense competition between the two firms? Which firm was doing better? The companies faced a watershed moment with the dramatic liberalization of the oppor- tunities in China, Might their past performance contain clues about the prospects for future competition? Part One 03 = 1.00) Index (18-Jur eoueutg Uosuioy)) weansered “E109 10 3 yeyeer tO EZ (9) macy MEFL %LIZO5 SOS GETS LOVL) WIS LONE Bee eee ele (wore)! aoe wisse Taree MLELL were KieSy KoMeLe (ure24)) $801 su07'g2 seove (ors!) seve HeLee ISLE LL} Here vlosy HILOR GuEDED rensaun joq ou0ot 186 eee Gers: meee MESS (K20U2 KETE Mely HEEL tere MOD ‘i980 10° foey a's Pea HLS Os MET! Mess HELO! HORE KEE say 20-20. 1000, 00-66. 66-86, 96-16. 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UD Per aan est) a) eee ert ak Bee peers aces | er ec ire cee PT) Shee ee ore Gece say ody woe yews Jats cram. youe lsedié) 1910 S9|gH2901/998 Hoe ecsy.| eeth) se) yrec Wier doiey Site eat ey woo edz —«booz~=«(00dz «= act 888 Case 4 The Battle for Valve, 2004: Fedix Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc or EXHIBIT 4 | Timeline of Competitive Developments Fedex Corp. » Offers 10:30 A.M. delivery | + Acquites Geloo Express and launches operations in Asia-Pacific + Establishes European hub in Brussels + Introduces handheld barcode scanner to capture datailed package information «Offers warehouse services for IBM, National Semiconductor, Laura Ashley «+ Acquies Tiger Intemational to expand its international presence hes Latin American division ‘now hub at Roissy-Gharles de 1982 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 4989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 United Parcel Service, Inc. + Establishes next-day air service * Begins intercontinental ait sorvice between United States and Europe + Establishes UPS's first air fleet ‘+ Offers automated customs service + Expands international air service to 180 countries * Introduces 10:30 a.m. guarantae for next-day air + Begins Saturday delivery + Offers electronic-signature tracking + Expands delivery to over 200 countries + Provides supply-chain solutions through UPS Logistics Group + Launches Web site for package tracking + Offers guaranteed € a.ta, overnight delivery + Makes UPS stock available through a public offering + Acquires all-cargo air service in Latin America + Acquires Mail Boxes Ete. retail franchise + Begins divect fights to China * Offers guaranteed next-day home delivery + Contracts with Yangtze River Express for package delivery within China + Rleduces domestic ground-delivery time homes Part One Setting Some summary of Announced List-Rate Increases, Heit 5 | pons 2004 Average jo99 2000, 2001 2002 Sate implemented 2/8 3 areros 27er05 1/06 4/707 V6I08 same ee fe JP sen. 2a 31% — 3.5% UPS grouns uss. domestic ait Bam 25% 35% S i aay eee 3.8% Us. export coe 00% 2% 2 Se ae ee Fosicential premium! g100 $1.00 $1.00 yios sito $t15 St 40 Commercial premiunt ae aS NE: i eee $1.00 2003-2004 _ Average aege 1099 2000 2001 2002 panos 212104 212/08 “yaioe 7/07 0/08 49% 3.1% Ao es 3.9% ao, 2a Oe Ae sey gee ae? 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