L ngi quan tm n chui cung ng, hn bn tng nghe n ci gi l Bullwhip Effect

- hiu ng ci roi da. y l mt hin tng quan trng v c ngha t ph trong cc

quyt nh v qun tr chui cung ng.
Hiu ng Bullwhip c pht hin u tin bi tin s Ray Forrester (MIT) vo nm 1961
trong nghin cu c tn Industrial Dynamics v do cn c gi l hiu ng Forrester
(TS Forrester sau ny rt ni ting vi m hnh System Dynamics c ng dng rng ri
trong phn tch v hoch nh kinh doanh, chin lc kinh doanh.
Cc nghin cu ca ng l nn tng cho cc khi nim pht trin sau ny nh Strategy
Dynamics, Business Dynamics) Tuy nhin, Bullwhip Effect ch c pht trin mt cch
ton din v gn vi chui cung ng bi GS Hau Lee trong bi bo The Bullwhip Effect in
Supply Chain trn tp ch MIT Sloan Management Review nm 1997. T ngi ta mi
thc s nhn nhn vai tr v tc ng ca hiu ng ny. Gn vi Bullwhip Effect, trng
MIT pht trin mt tr chi gi lp nhm gip ngi chi hiu r hn vai tr v tc
ng ca Bullwhip c tn l Beer Game.
V mt s cng ty khc th pht trin thm tr chi gi lp c tn Near Beer Game. Beer
Game l tr chi phn vai c nh hng rng ln trong cc doanh nghip, m bn thn
cc CEO hng u th gii khi tham gia chi u tht ln Nu c chi sm hn th c
l ti ci thin c nhiu iu.
Thng tin nhu cu khng chnh xc chuyn ti t mt thnh phn trong chui cung ng
n mt thnh phn khc c th dn ti lng ph to ln: mc d tr ln qu mc, dch
v khch hng ti, mt doanh s, k hoch sn xut khng chnh xc, vn ti khng hiu
qu. Vy iu g lm cc n hng nhy ma lon x nh vy? C cch no cc doanh
nghip gim thiu chuyn y?
Cch y khng lu, mt nh iu hnh logistics cng ty P&G tin hnh nghin cu
cch thc t hng i vi mt trong nhng sn phm bn chy ca cng ty - t lt
Pampers. Lc kim tra, pht hin doanh s bn hng ti cc ca hng bn l c bin ng
vi mc khng qu ln nhng bin ng n hng ti nh phn phi li ln hn, thm
ch vic t hng nguyn liu ca P&G vi nh cung cp nh l 3M li c mc bin
ng rt ln.
Thot nhn th s khc bit v bin ng n hng c v khng hp l. Bi ngi tiu
dng, trong trng hp ny l nhng a nhc, tiu th t lt mc kh n nh, trong
khi mc bin ng n hng li ngy cng ln khi tin su vo chui cung ng. P&G
gi hin tng ny l hiu ng Bullwhip (trong mt s ngnh th ngi ta gi l hiu
ng whiplash hay whipsaw).
Tng t, khi cc nh iu hnh Hewlett-Packard (HP) kim tra doanh s ca sn phm
my in mt i l ch cht, h thy c mt s bin ng. n khi kim tra n hng t
i l ny th h pht hin mc bin ng cn ln hn.
iu g xy ra? C phi chui cung ng ang b ly nhim bi hiu ng Bullwhip, khin
cho thng tin nhu cu ngy cng b mo m hn khi i su vo trong chui cung ng?
Ngy trc, do khng th thy ht c doanh s bn ca mnh trong cc knh phn phi
nn HP ch c th da vo n hng ca i l a ra d bo sn phm, ln k hoch
ngun lc, kim sot tn kho v ln k hoch sn xut.
S chnh lch qu ln trong d bo nhu cu tr thnh bi ton au u cho ban qun
tr HP. Triu chng thng thng ca s bin ng y l tn kho qu mc, d bo km,
nng lc d tha hoc thiu ht, dch v khch hng t do sn phm khng c sn hoc
do tn kho d tr qu lu, k hoch sn xut khng n nh v chi ph tn km t nhng
hnh ng sa cha (nh dng vn ti chi ph cao, lm vic ngoi gi...)

Nhiu nm trc y, t chc ECR (Efficient Consumer Respone) c gng ti xc lp

cch vn hnh ca chui cung ng hng tp ha (grocery supply chain). Mt trong nhng
ng c chnh ca hnh ng ny l tn kho qu mc trong chui cung ng bn l. Nhiu
nghin cu trong ngnh cho thy, tng chui cung ng t lc sn phm ri nh my n
khi n c by sn sng trn k c lng tn kho tng ng 100 ngy cung cp (100
days of inventory supply).
Thng tin mo m dn dt cc thnh phn trong chui cung ng (kho ca nh my,
kho thnh phm ca nh sn xut, kho trung tm ca nh phn phi, kho vng ca nh
phn phi, kho ca nh bn l) phi d tr hng bi v mc bin ng v khng chc
chn ca nhu cu.
S khng ngc nhin khi ECR c tnh c th ct gim khong 30 t USD cho cc khon
khng hiu qu trong chui cung ng bn l.
Trong chui cung ng ca mt sn phm in hnh, ngay c trong trng hp doanh s
khng bin ng nhiu th n cng c chuyn ha thnh nhng bin ng trong n
hng ca nh bn l n nh bn s. Thm ch cn cao hn khi n nh sn xut v cung
cp (xem hnh 1).
Cc nguyn nhn ca hiu ng Bullwhip
C l mt v d sng ng minh ha cho hiu ng Bullwhip chnh l tr chi ni ting Beer
(Beer-game). Trong tr chi ny, ngi chi s ng vai ngi tiu dng, ngi bn l, nh
bn s v nh cung cp mt nhn hiu bia ph thng. Ngi chi khng th trao i vi
nhau v phi t a ra quyt nh da trn n hng ca ngi c lin quan trc tip
ang ng vai tr l khch hng ca mnh. Khi chi, ngi ta pht hin ra rng cng i
ngc su vo chui cung ng th mc bin ng n hng cng ln.
y l v d v cng sinh ng ca Bullwhip Effect. Mc bin ng ny c cho rng
gy ra bi quyt nh khng hp l ca ngi chi. Theo th nghim ca Sterman (xin xem
cun Nguyn tc th 5 ca tc gi Peter Senge) cho thy chnh hnh vi con ngi, hiu
sai v tn kho v thng tin nhu cu c th gy ra hiu ng Bullwhip.
Ngc li, chng ti cho rng Hiu ng Bullwhip l hu qu ca hnh vi kh hp l ca
con ngi trong bi cnh h tng ca chui cung ng. Ngha l, cc cng ty mun kim
sot hiu ng Bullwhip th nn tp trung vo kim sot v iu chnh h tng chui cung
ng v cc quy trnh lin quan, hn l iu chnh hnh vi ca ngi ra quyt nh.

1.
2.
3.
4.

Chng ti xc nh c bn nguyn nhn chnh gy ra hiu ng Bullwhip:

Cch thc cp nht d bo nhu cu
Dung lng n hng theo quy m (order batching)
S bin ng v gi c (price fluctuation)
Tr chi to s hn ch v thiu ht (rationing and shortage gaming)

Mi nguyn nhn trn cng vi bi cnh h tng chui cung ng v cc quyt nh hp l

ca cc nh qun l gy ra hiu ng Bullwhip. Hiu r cc nguyn nhn ny s gip
cc nh qun l thit k v pht trin chin lc i ph vi n.
Cp nht d bo nhu cu (demand forecast updating)
Mi cng ty trong chui cung ng thng thc hin vic d bo sn phm nhm gip vic
ln k hoch sn xut, hoch nh ngun lc, kim sot tn kho v hoch nh nguyn vt
liu. D bo thng da trn d liu lch s n hng ca khch hng trc tip. Kt qu
ca tr Beer Game chnh l sn phm ca nhiu yu t mang tnh hnh vi, nh l nhn
thc v nim tin ca ngi chi. Mt yu t quan trng l suy ngh ca ngi chi khi d
bo nhu cu da trn nhng g h quan st thy. Mi khi c n hng t i tc
downstream(1) (nh nh bn l, bn s, sn xut...) th cc nh qun l upstream (nh
nh bn s, sn xut, cung cp...) s coi thng tin nh l tn hiu v nhu cu tng lai.
Da trn tn hiu y, nh qun l upstream s iu chnh d bo nhu cu ca mnh. Tip
theo, h dng thng tin y t hng cho nh cung cp (thnh phm, nguyn vt
liu ). Chng ti cho rng chnh vic x l thng tin/tn hiu nhu cu chnh l yu t ch
cht gy ra hiu ng Bullwhip.
V d, nu bn l nh qun l - ngi quyt nh cn t bao nhiu hng t nh cung cp,
n gin bn ch cn s dng mt phng php c bn d bo nhu cu, v nh
phng php d bo lm trn bng hm s m(2). Vi phng php ny, nhu cu trong
tng lai s lin tc c cp nht khi c d liu hng ngy v nhu cu.
n hang bn gi cho nh cung cp phn nh s lng bn cn b sung vo d tr nhm
p ng nhu cu ca tng lai v mc tn kho an ton tng ng (c hai c cp nht
bng phng php k trn). Vi thi gian n hng di s chng him trng hp c tn

kho an ton ln n nhiu tun. Kt qu l bin ng n hng theo thi gian c th ln

hn nhng g d liu nhu cu th hin.
By gi mt v tr pha trn ca chui cung ng, nu bn l nh gim c ca nh cung
cp, cc d liu n hng t khch hng s quyt nh nhu cu ca bn. Nu bn cng s
dng m hnh d bo lm trn bng hm s m cp nht d bo v tn kho an ton,
nhng n hng m bn t hng vi nh cung cp thm ch cn bin ng mnh hn. V
d v s bin ng trong cu th hin hnh 2. ta c th thy n hng t nh phn
phi cho nh sn xut bin ng mnh hn nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng. Chnh yu t
tn kho an ton gy ra hiu ng bullwhip, trc gic c th thy rng nu thi gian gia
mi ln b sung hng trong chui cung ng di hn th mc bin ng s cng mnh
hn.
n t hng theo gi/l (Order Batching)
Trong chui cung ng, mi cng ty khi t hng vi
i tc u s dng mt vi m hnh kim sot tn
kho. Khi nhu cu n, tn kho s gim nhng cng
ty c th khng t hng vi nh cung cp ngay lp
tc m h thng gp hoc gom cc nhu cu li ri
mi t hng. C hai hnh thc t hng theo gi:
t hng nh k v t hng theo hnh thc y
(push order).
Thay v t hng lin tc thng xuyn, cc cng ty t hng theo tun/hoc hai tun
thm ch hng thng. C nhiu l do ph bin gii thch cho m hnh d tr da trn
t hng theo chu k. Thng th nh cung cp khng th x l cc n hng lin tc
thng xuyn, v yu t thi gian v chi ph x l n hng kiu y qu ln. Nhiu nh sn
xut t hng vi nh cung cp khi h chy cc h thng MRP (Material Requirement
Planning). H thng MRP thng chy hng thng v cho ra kt qu t hng hng thng.
Mt cng ty c nhng sn phm t bn chy s thng t hng theo thng hn.
Hy xem xt trng hp mt cng ty t hng mi thng cho nh cung cp ca mnh.
Nh cung cp ny s gp tnh trng n hng tht thng. V n hng c th rt cao vo
mt thi im trong thng trong khi c thng li khng c n hng, iu ny cng gp
phn gy ra hiu ng Bullwhip.
Mt tr ngi ln v ph bin khc i vi mt cng ty mun t hng thng xuyn chnh
l tnh kinh t ca vn ti. R rng c s khc bit gia mt FTL (Full Truck Load) v LTL
(Less Truck Load).
Trong m hnh t hng y (push order), mt cng ty c th tri qua tnh trng thng
xuyn tng nhu cu t bin. Cng ty ny c nhng n hng y nh k t khch
hng, bi v ngi bn hng thng c cp trn nh gi nh k theo qu hoc nm
lm pht sinh tnh trng n hng tng t bin cui thng hoc cui nm. Nhn vin bn
hng thng hon thnh hn ngch bn hng bng cch mn cc n hng ca k k
tip.
Khi mt cng ty i din vi cc n hng nh k t khch hng th cng l lc hiu ng
bullwhip xut hin. Nu tt c cc chu k n hng c phn b u trong sut mt tun
th hiu ng Bullwhip s c gim thiu.
Bin ng gi c
Theo c tnh, 80 phn trm cc giao dch gia nh sn xut v nh phn phi trong
ngnh tp ha (bn l) c thc hin di hnh thc forward buy (mua k hn), theo
cc sn phm c mua trc khi c nhu cu, thng do mc gi hp dn ca nh

cung cp cho bn. Cc hp ng forward buy chim t 75 t n 100 t USD tn kho

ca ngnh bn l.
Mua k hn thng do s bin ng gi c trn th trng. Nh sn xut v phn phi
nh k c chng trnh khuyn mi c bit nh chit khu gi, chit khu theo s lng,
coupon, thi tin (rebates). Tt c chng trnh khuyn mi ny u dn ti s bin
ng gi c. Hn na, nh sn xut thng cho mi nhng hp ng thng mi hp
dn (nh chit khu c bit, u i gi, u i thanh ton) cho nh phn phi v bn s,
mt hnh thc gin tip ca chit khu gi.
V d, Kotler bo co rng cc hp ng thng mi c bit v khuyn mi cho ngi
tiu dng chim ti 47% v 28% tng ngn sch khuyn mi ca mnh. V th l khch
hng mua hng vi s lng ln khng h phn nh nhu cu thc s ti thi im . H
mua hng ch d tr cho tng lai.
Hu qu l sau , khch hng ch mua hng khi h gii quyt ht lng tn kho ca
mnh. Tc l m hnh mua hng ca h khng phn nh thc m hnh tiu th, mc bin
ng trong mua hng theo s lng ln s ln hn nhiu so vi bin ng tiu th. Vy l
hiu ng Bullwhip li xut hin.
C mi khi m hnh nh gi cao-thp (high-low) (3) xut hin th forward buy l mt
quyt nh hp l. Nu chi ph ca d tr hng tn kho thp hn mc khc bit v gi
th mua hng forward buy qu l quyt nh kh hp l.
Mc d mt s cng ty cho rng mnh c quyn c hng t m hnh nh gi cao-thp
nhng phn ln li ang gnh chu hu qu t n. V d, mt nhn hiu soup hng u c
doanh s bn hng mang tnh thi v v thng cao nht vo ma ng (xem hnh 3).
Tuy nhin, lng hng vn chuyn t nh sn xut n nh phn phi phn nh n hng
ca nh phn phi th li thay i rt mnh. Khi i din vi tnh trng n hng ln, cng
ty thng phi vn hnh sn xut lin tc, thm ch l ngoi gi nhng khi n hng gim
th li phi gim sn xut. Thay vo , cng ty phi tr hng phng tr trng hp
nhu cu tng cao.
Khi n hng tng cng l lc cng ty phi tr chi ph cao cho vic vn chuyn. Hng hc
cng tng do d tr hng v x l hng vi s lng ln hn bnh thng. Ma mai thay,
tnh trng y li do s bin ng v gi do chnh nh sn xut v phn phi gy ra. Nn
khng c g l bun ci nu ngi ta gi thc t ny l the dumbest marketing ploy
ever (mnh khe marketing v vn nht).
Tr chi hn ch v thiu ht (rationing and
shortage gaming)
Khi nhu cu vt qu kh nng cung cp, ngha l
nh sn xut ang hn ch sn phm ca mnh n
khch hng. Theo ngha , nh sn xut s phn b
s lng t l theo s lng t hng. V d, nu
tng cung ch bng 50% tng cu th khch hng ch
nhn c 50% s lng m h t hng. V nu
bit nh sn xut s hn ch khi sn phm b thiu
ht th khch hng s phng i nhu cu thc s ca
mnh ln khi h t hng. Sau , khi m nhu cu
ngui, n hng s bt thnh lnh b hy b.
y chnh l phn ng ngc khi c tnh trng thiu ht v ch phn b xut hin. Tc
ng ca tr chi ny l n hng ca khch hng phn nh khng chnh xc nhu cu
thc. Hin tng ny xut hin kh ph bin. Vo nhng nm 1980, nhiu ln ngnh cng
nghip my tnh ri vo tnh trng thiu ht DRAM. n hng tng vt nhng khng phi
do tiu th tng m do d on. Khch hng t hng gp i vi nhiu nh cung cp

khc nhau v chnh thc mua t nh cung cp u tin c th giao hng, sau hy b
cc n hng trng lp cn li.
Lm th no i ph vi hiu ng Bullwhip
Hiu c bn cht nguyn nhn ca hiu ng bullwhip c th gip cc nh qun l tm ra
phng cch gim thiu n. Thc t nhiu cng ty bt u ng dng cc chng trnh
i mi gip gii quyt vn ny.
Hau L.Lee, V.Padmanbhan,Seungjin Whang