SEALEVEL CHANGES

Dr. Thrivikramji.K.P.
thrivikramji@gmail.com

Introduction
Among the coastal communities, with tide rising and falling, changes in sealevel are an
every day phenomenon. Moreover, in the minds of settlers in certain parts of the globe
like Venice rising t rend in sea-level was beyond anybody s doubt as t hey lived wit h t he
consequences of rising sea-level right before t heir eyes. Even t hough among t he
t rained mind, geologist s were t he first recognize evidences of past sealevel st ands
especially along t he coast al lands and imprint ed on t he ground or in t he landscape,
such changes were considered t o be event s of t he geologic past and perhaps no longer
in act ion now unt il ext ensive records of t ide gauge dat a were subj ect ed t o careful
scrutiny.

When Glacial geologist s reached t he unequivocal choice of looking at t he global sea as

t he cont ribut or t o t he ext ensive cont inent al ice sheet s of Pleist ocene, t he idea of
lower global sealevel st and during glaciations became a scient ific truism. Alongside,
other side of the coin of lower sea level of glacial epochs was a rise in sea level during
t he int er-glacials and lat er now by globally driven warming of t he at mosphere and
consequent waning of glaciers and ice sheet s. In fact , SL never st ayed st eady even in
t he geologic past , inst ead t here was a procession of sealevel change in t he past
geological ages as depicted in the sealevel curve (Exxon SL curve) designed by Vail.

Table 1 General Predictions on extent of SLR

Hoffman (1984) 1.0 m in next 50 100 yr.- might even

reach meter by end of the century
Raper et . Al (1988) Climat ic 12-18 cm rise by 2030
Research Unit , Univ. of
E.Anglia
Barnet (1984), Gornit z & 10-15 cm rise in the past century;
Lebedev (1987) now rises at 1.2mm/yr
GLOSS- Global sea level Global net -work of t ide gauges t o monit or
observing system, UNESCO SLR

Though fall in sea level and format ion of glaciers were a gradual but st eady
phenomenon, t he post -glacial rise of sea level largely due t o set t ing in of warmer
climate, was anyt hing but gradual as a result of regional and local variat ions in t he
nat ure of rocks and consequent differences in response t o glacial offloading and
variabilit y in t he t ect onic make up. The post -indust rial revolut ion t imes, as t he per
capit a consumpt ion of coal and lat er oil also went up hugely, effluent s rich in what
are called green house gases, released t o t he at mosphere t riggered what is called
green house gas forced heat ing or warming of lower t roposphere. Immediate
consequence of such warming was increased melt ing or wast ing of snow and ice in t he
poles as well as in the continents.

1
An immediat e consequence of such melt ing of ice and snow was addit ion of added
volumes of wat er t o t he oceans forcing t he sealevel t o rise t o t he dismay of t he
coast al communit ies in all t he cont inent s. The warmer lower t roposphere also
cont ribut es t o t he warming of surface sea wat er t ending t o raise t he sea level due
thermal expansion of sea water.

Though scientific research and act ivist groups in several count ries caut ioned t he maj or
GHG producing indust rial count ries on t he climat e change forcing due t o GHG, the
award of t his years Nobel peace prize for t he IPCC report on sealevel creat ed an
increased awareness on the dangers and threats in the minds of general public in every
littoral country of the world.

Evidences of SL changes
Coast al geology and geomorphology always offered ample scient ific basis for changing
SLs. Coast al geomorphological st udies using aerial phot ographs and sat ellit e imageries
too helped to decipher the structural make up of the basins of sediment accumulation.
Progression and orient at ion of st rand lines were easily and convincingly underst ood
and deciphered from such t ools. Anot her area of invest igat ion of t ide gauge dat a
gat hered from st at ions at t ached t o harbours and port s dist ribut ed in various
cont inent s. Lengt h of record, qualit y and st yle dat a keeping were crit ical t o use or
rej ect ion of any dat a set . Recent ly, Unnikrishnan s (NIO) work based on t ide gauge
data pertaining to is also a case in point.

Oceanographers and marine geologist s were driven t o examine t he t ide gauge dat a t o
examine t he behaviour of SL in t he past and present cent ury, where ever t ide dat a
permit t ed. Shepard and st udent s launched global st udy of t ide gauge dat a, which led
t hem t o unequivocally believe t hat SL has been changing during t he st udy period.
St raigraphic analysis of sediment fills in t he coast al plain by Kraft st udent s of
universit y of Delaware added a good deal of new knowledge on t he sedimentary
features of transgressions or regressions since the Pleistocene.

Causes of SLR
Causes of SLR can be broadly grouped int o geological (t ect onic, eust at ic et c.) and
anthropogenic (green house gas driven) causes. Geologic causes manifest in
geomorphology, st rat igraphy, basin frame work et c. As geologist s we have st udied and
mapped t he rock format ions of marine and non-marine affinit ies now exposed in
various part s of t he count ry. How ever, such occurrences were explained as due t o
t ransgression and regressions of sea in t he geologic past . But in t he past , driving
mechanisms of such environment al changes did not at t ract any great at t ent ion by
geologist s. It was t he oil geology which came face t o face wit h t he issues of such
environment al changes and came up wit h empirical suggest ions. For e.g., t he
repet it ion of carbonate-seat eart h-coal t riplet s or cyclot hems of Kansas, warrant ed an
explanat ion and simplified proposal was t hat t he shore line was oscillat ing forcing t he
environment t o change from marine t o nomarine in successively due t o forcing by
t ect onism. However, lat er suggest ions act ually called for migrat ion of shoreline back
and forth and not tectonism. Even modulation of sediment supply from sources outside
the basin can lead to changing environments and hence environments of deposition.

Isot asy (cont inent al scale balancing and consequent movement s) and eust asy (local)
are phenomena very familiar t o geologist s and as geologist s we know t hat t he concept

2
of isostasy had an Indian origin. Eust asy on t he ot her hand originat ed in t he cont inent s
which had gone t hrough cont inent al scale glaciat ion, where local but dramat ic
evidences for relat ive rises of land mass occurred in plent y. Terms like glacial
eustasy(elevation change due t o ice loading), sediment o-eust asy (due t o sediment
loading) and hydro-eustasy (water loading) have been coined. Out side of these natural
causes, in modern t imes, t he sea level has been affect ed globally by ant hropogenic
reasons, I.e., SLR due to GHE.

Basis of Green house effect (GHE)

Now practically most of the citizens are aware of causes and consequences of SLR. The
rise in t he air t emperat ure (or lower t ropospheric warming) is cause by cont inued
accumulat ion of so called green house gases like, CO2 along wit h methane, moisture,
CFCs, CO, NOx etc which are most ly originat e as effluent s, from one or ot her sort of
machine powered by one or ot her t ype of fossil fuel derivat ive, which direct ly or
indirectly contributes to the better quality of life we enjoy.

Table 2. Consequences of Global Warming

a. Green House Effect : Global lower t ropo-spheric warming leads t o
rise of snowline, increased melt ing of ice and snow in glaciers, ice
sheet s including polar ice sheet s. Melt wat er reaching sea will t end
to push the SL upward.

b. Steric effect: Warming of air drives seawater temperature forcing

it t o go for a volumet ric expansion and consequent enlargement of
water volume leading to global rise in S L (Barth & Titus, 1984).

These gases and especially CO2 t rapped in t he lower at mosphere forms a gaseous
shield; prevent escape of heat radiat ing back (as long wave radiat ion) t o t he
atmosphere at night when the earth materials begin to cool at the end of each day.
However, the incoming shorter wave radiation easily penetrates the gaseous envelope.
Ever increasing use of fossil fuels by t he various nat ions of t he world cont ribut es ever
increasing volumes of GHGs to the atmosphere.

In general most of t he coast al feat ures we come across now have come int o being
since t he last 6000 yr. except in t he sect ors where t here was an express t endency for
land subsidence (Bloom, 1977). If all t he ice sheet s and glaciers were t o melt SL will
rise by 60.0 m (Donn et .al. 1962). A consequence of SLR will be under cut t ing of Cliffs
forcing the landward retreat of the cliff line and encroachment by shoreline. The cliffs
around peninsular India (most of which had formed on headlands) show evidence of
change. Consequence cliff erosion due t o rising SL is t he creat ion of underwat er
plat forms. Rising levels will creat e plent y of feat ures of submergence leading t o
deepening of coast al lagoons. By cont inued SLR t he sea might even occupy port ions of
the sector it once owned during the Pleistocene.

The MOE&F had launched a st udy of t he consequences of SLR due t o GHE in t he 90 s,

for t he lit t oral st at es of India, viz., Guj arat h, MAharasht ra, Goa, Karnat aka, Kerala,
Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal). As result of t his st udy, t here is
some level of underst anding on t he pot ent ial loss t o t he st at es as well as t o t he
nation.

3
Sea level trends

Tide gauge dat a generally show changes in sea level due t o rise in sea level due t o
addit ional wat er reaching t he ocean, neo-t ect onic fall in land elevat ions and shifts
ocean current s (Gornit z, 1989). Est imat ed SLR t rends are summarised in Table 3. The
proposed global sea level rise curve by Fairbridge (1961) became in applicable to many
coast al areas due t o non-uniformit y in neot ect onism of landmasses in quest ion and
hence eust asy. Therefore, design and use of local sealevel change curves became
more meaningful and reliable, t hat such effort s were launched by various groups in
different count ries. A local SLR curve for west coast of India was published by Kale &
Rajaguru (1985) depict ing a st eep rise t o 60 m by t he end of Pleist ocene and t hen
climbing convexly up crossing t he current SL at 6000 yr. B.P. t o furt her follow a mildly
rising trend.

Table 3. Estimated eustatic SLR, by 2100 AD (Gornitz 1990)

Cause Range , m Source
Aalpine glaciers 0.10-0.30 Khun (1989)
Greenland 0.13-0.35 Bindschadler (1985)
Antartic 0.2-03 Thomas (1986)
Thermal expansion 0.11-0.37 Wigley & Raper (1987)
Total 0.54- 1.32

Summary
Sealevel changes have been familiar to geologists and especially to oil geologists.
Ant hropogenic addit ion of GHG t o t he at mosphere increases t he pace of global
warming by t rapping long wave heat radiat ion in t he at mosphere leading t o rise of
t errest rial heat levels (temperature) and a global scale wast ing or melt ing of ice
sheet s, glaciers and polar ice sheet s. An IGCP proj ect of UNESCO provided an impet us
t o st udy and document Post Pleist ocene sealevel changes in most of t he coast al st at es
in various cont inent s - peninsular India included. Tamil Universit y, Thanj avur had
organized two seminars along these lines offering a platform for exchange of ideas and
present at ion of views for t he workers scat t ered across t he count ry. Remot e sensing
t ools have been ext ensively used by geologist s in t he universit ies (especially Bharat hi
Dasan Universit y in t he sout h) and GSI t o map t he successive SL st ands in t he coast al
land of Indian landmass. Due t o impending t hreat t o t he populat ion and resources in
the coastal land, global SLR has become a natural concern of administration and public
alike in India t oo and t he concern has also been now shared by t he Nobel award
committee.
---------------------