Hunters Curve in

st
the 21 Century
ACEEE Hot Water Forum
Steven Buchberger
November 4, 2013

What is Hunters Curve?

Hunters Curve Predicts Peak Flow

GPM

Fixture Units
3

Life in 1940

Population = 2.3B

Gas = $0.2/gal

Life in 2013

Population = 7.0B

Gas = $4/gal

End User Demand (21 units)

Flow (L/min)

100

Friday, May 16

80
60
40
20
0
0

12

16

20

24

Hour
7

One Fixture is a Bernoulli Trial

t
q
T
Average duration of flow
p = t/T =
Avg time btn consecutive uses
8

Three Key Parameters..

Fixture Characteristics
q
T

p = t/T

Human Behavior
9

Many Fixtures Exist

1
2
3
10

Many Fixtures Exist

1
2
3
Overlapping pulses

11

Design Problem
Assuming that there are n (identical ) fixtures

in a system, each operated once in T

seconds on the average, and that each
operation is of t seconds average duration,
what is the probability that k fixtures will be
found operating simultaneously at any
arbitrarily chosen instant of observation?
(Roy Hunter, 1940)

12

Many Fixtures are Binomial

exactly k busy fixtures

Pr
out of n total fixtures
t
where p
T

n
k
nk
k p 1 p

k 0,1,..., n
13

Binomial Distribution Example

Binomial Distribution for Flush Tanks
0.4

probability

0.3
p=0.20; n=7
0.2

0.1

0
0

4
6
Number of Busy Fixtures

exactly k 7
k
7k
Pr
0.2 0.8

busy fixtures k

k 0,1,..., 7
14

Design Condition is 99th Percentile

Binomial Distribution for Flush Tanks
0.4

probability

0.3
p=0.20; n=7
0.2

0.1

0
0

4
6
Number of Busy Fixtures

99% chance

1% chance
15

Design Flow, One Fixture Group

40

p=t/T=0.2
30

Q(0.99) 20

(gpm)

n=7; Q=16 gpm

10

Fixture Group A
0
0

10

20
n

30

40

4 gpm
Q n 7 0.99 m q 4 fixtures
16 gpm
fixture

16

Design Flows, Two Fixture Groups

40

p=t/T=0.20
30

Q(0.99) 20

p=t/T=0.05

(gpm)
10

Fixture Group A
Fixture Group B
0
0

10

20
n

30

40

17

Common Currency

One Curve

GPM

Fixture Units

18

Hunters Track Record

Hunters curve has withstood the test of time
and is the basis for plumbing codes around
the globe today.

Hunters curve went viral long before U-tube

arrived; not surprising, it is clever, convenient,
correct.
However, today Hunters curve is often faulted
for giving overly conservative design.why?
19

Two Main Issues

[1] Simplicity is seductive. Hunters curve

has been applied to many situations for
which it was not intended.
[2] Times have changed. Water use fixtures
(hot and cold) have become much more
efficient since Hunters pioneering work.
20

Hunters Curve in 1940

GPM

Fixture Units
21

Hunters Curve in 2013

GPM
LEED,

NZE, HE fixtures = lower q

uncongested use = lower n, p

22

Old Habits Die Hard

National effort in US to update Hunters

curve for peak water demands.
Driven by professional societies, not the
US Govt (not Natl Bureau Standards).
Prevailing sentiment is to simply revise the
fixture units in the code.

What would Roy Hunter do?

23

IAPMO Sub-Task Group Orders

.work singularly to develop the
probability model to predict peak
residential demands based on the
number of plumbing fixtures of
different kinds installed in one
system.
24

Aquacraft Data Sets

2011 California Single Family Home Water Use
Efficiency Study (n=750)
2011 Albuquerque Retrofit Study
o Pre-retrofit (n=240)
o Post-retrofit (n=29)
2010 EPA Standard New Homes (n=302)
2010 EPA High Efficiency New Homes (n=25)

[1,346 homes .. >15,000 home days]

25

Data Base Queries

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

home unique ID
range of home IDs
Aquacraft data set(s)
age of home
retrofit status of home (Y/N)
geographic location of home
fixture performance (NLF, LF, ULF )
fixture group

26

Data Base Queries

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

home unique ID
range of home IDs
Aquacraft data set(s)
9
indoor water use
age of home
10 (Y/N)outdoor water use
retrofit status of home
weekday water use
geographic location 11
of home
weekend
fixture performance 12
(NLF, LF,
ULF ) water use
13
AM or PM use
fixture group
14
hot or cold water use *
15
per capita daily water use
16
total annual household water use

27

Data Base Queries

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

home unique ID
range of home IDs
Aquacraft data set(s)
9
indoor water use
age of home
10 (Y/N)outdoor water use
retrofit status of home
weekday water use
geographic location 11
of home
17 home square footage
12
weekend
water
use
fixture performance (NLF, LF, ULF )
18 yard square footage
13
AM or PM use
fixture group
19 number of bedrooms
14
hot or cold water use
20 number of bathrooms
15
per capita daily water use
21 number of occupants
16
total annual household water use
22 age of occupants
23 water meter size
24 ? _____________
28

Six Types of Residential Fixtures

[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]

Toilets (3 efficiency levels)

Showers
Bathtubs
Faucets (all sinks)
Dishwasher (energy star ratings)
Clothes Washer (energy star ratings)
29

Three Characteristics of Fixtures

[1] Pulse Intensity (q)
[2] Pulse Duration (t)
[3] Pulse Frequency (T)
t

q
T
30

Water Pulse Characteristics

(example, N=50 homes)
Fixture
Group
FG 1
FG 2
FG 4

No of
Fixtures
n
100
100
50

Typical Minimum
Water Pulse
q
t
v=qt
1.00 1.50
1.50
1.50 3.50
5.25
1.00 0.50
0.50

Average (Nominal)
Water Pulse
q
t
v=qt
1.50 2.00 3.00
3.00 8.00 24.00
1.00 0.50 0.50

Fixture
Group
FG 1
FG 2
FG 4

Typical Maximum
Water Pulse
q
t
v=qt
2.00 2.50 5.00
3.50 10.00 35.00
1.00 0.50 0.50

Standard Deviation
Water Pulse
q
t
v
0.25 0.25 1.00
0.50 1.50 6.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

Average (Nominal)
Water Pulse
q
t
v=qt
1.50 2.00 3.00
3.00 8.00 24.00
1.00 0.50 0.50
(gpm) (min) (gal)

Sample
Size
N
774
191
1040.3

Terms and Units

Water Pulse
q
t
v
gpm

min

gal

31

Peak Flow (99th percentile)

(example, N=50 homes)
Fixture
Group

Probability of
Fixture Use
p=t/T

FG 1, n=100
FG 2, n=100
FG 4, n=50

7 am 8 am
0.026 0.041
0.103 0.051
0.028 0.019

Hour ending 7 am
Fixtures Flow (gpm)
mean var mean var
2.6 2.5 3.9 5.7
10.3 9.2 30.9 83.2
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
14.3 13.1 36.2 90.3
Q(0.99)= 58.3 gpm

per Wistort 1994

32

Tantalizing Possibilities

Normal approximation (Wistort, 1994)

Computer simulation: SIMDEUM or PRPsym

Full enumeration of CDF (WDSA 2012)

Merge w/ Bldg Information Modeling (BIM)

Theres an app for that!

+

=
33

Questions?

Steven.Buchberger@uc.edu

University of Cincinnati

34

Phones to Faucets Analogy

Arrival Rates
Poisson Model
Erlang 1918

Time Between Uses

Binomial Model
Hunter 1940

35

End User Examples - 1

Hospitals

Schools

Shutterstock.com

36

End User Examples - 2

Opera Houses

Bus/Rail Stations

Shutterstock.com

37

End User Examples 3

Hotels, CBD

Sports Stadiums

Shutterstock.com

38