Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ICRA Report On CERC Norms 2009
ICRA Report On CERC Norms 2009
Contact
Anjan Ghosh
Head, Corporate Ratings
aghosh@icraindia.com
+91-22-30470006
Sabyasachi Majumdar
sabyasachi@icraindia.com
+91-124-4545304
Anil Gupta
anilg@icraindia.com
+91-124-4545314
Summary Opinion
The new tariff norms for power utilities announced by the Central
Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) for the period FY2009-14 will
have an overall positive impact on the profitability of the power sector in
ICRAs opinion. While some of the measures such as a higher return on
equity (RoE) will attract more investments into the sector, the tightened
norms for operations should lead to an overall increase in efficiency in
the system. The abolition of Advance Against Depreciation (AAD) is
however a credit negative for projects funded through a shorter debt
repayment tenure (post-commissioning).
January 2009
While the regulations have provided for higher RoE, for thermal power
projects, the regulations have tightened the operational norms such as
reduction in heat rate for existing bigger units, linking of allowable heat
rate to design heat rate, tightening of working capital norms, reduction in
Secondary Fuel Oil (SFO) consumption norms, tightening of normative
Operation & Maintenance (O&M) Norms for plants with multiple units and
reduction in auxiliary consumption for bigger units. On the positive side,
the regulations have provided for a higher normative O&M expenses in
view of significant increase in employee expenses.
For Hydro Power projects, the regulations have suggested a partial
sharing of Hydrological risks by the project developer (though projects
will be protected during initial ten years of operation against hydrological
risks). Further the regulations have attempted to incentivise the project
developers to meet peak load requirements by linking the recovery of
Annual Fixed Charges (AFC) and incentive income with their ability to
operate near to their installed capacities for at least three hours a day.
While these will pose operational challenges for hydro power projects, on
the positive side, the regulations have provided for a significant increase
in O&M expenses apart from a higher RoE.
Website
www.icra.in
Background
The Electricity Act 2003 has empowered the CERC to specify the terms and conditions for the determination of
tariff in respect of the generating companies that are either owned by the Central Government or supply power to
more than one State. The CERC is also empowered to determine the tariff that can be levied by transmission
licensees for inter-State transmission of electricity.
After the enactment of the Electricity Act 2003, the CERC had come out with tariff regulations for the period 200409 in March 2004. With these regulations set to expire on March 31, 2009, the CERC has notified new tariff
regulations for the next regulatory period 2009-14. The new regulations will apply to all generating stations
(excluding stations based on non-conventional energy sources) and transmission licensees, provided that the
tariffs for these entities have not been determined through bidding process in accordance with the guidelines
issued by the Central Government. Further, the grace period of three years for government utilities to
competitively bid the projects will come to an end by 2011, and hence these norms will be applicable to projects
set up by PSUs as well that will either be existing on that date or the agreement for such projects have been
executed. The new regulations are also important for the various State Electricity Regulatory Commissions
(SERCs) as they are guided by these regulations while framing their own tariff principles for the State sector
utilities concerned.
The following discussion pertains to the key changes that have been brought about in the regulations for the
period 2009-14 as compared with those for the period 2004-09, and the likely impact of the same on power
utilities.
Component of AFC
Return on Equity
Interest on Loan Capital
Depreciation
Remarks
Significantly Positive
Marginally Positive
Negative
No Impact
Moderately negative for plants
with multiple units
Moderately negative as
operational norms are tightened
Marginally Positive
Page 2
Coal Stock
Maintenance Spares
4
5
Sales Receivables
O&M expense
2009-14
1 Months for Pit Head
2 Months for Non-Pit Head
2 Months
20% of O&M Costs Coal Based
30% of O&M Cost Gas Based
2 Months
1 Month
2004-09
1 Months for Pit Head
2 Months for Non-Pit Head
2 Months
1% of Historical Capital
Cost escalated @ 6% p.a.
2 Months
1 Month
Remarks
No Impact
No Impact
Negative
No Impact
No Impact
Considering the above normative parameters, a utility can recover an interest @ Short Term Prime Lending Rate
(PLR) of State Bank of India. ICRA expects no significant impact arising out of the new regulations on the
recoverability of Interest on Working Capital.
(e) Operations & Maintenance Costs
The CERC has specified O&M costs for thermal power stations on the normative parameters (Rs. lakh/MW),
depending on the class of the machine installed by the power station. The normative O&M expenses allowed are:
Page 3
10.95
13.00
13.75
14.53
15.36
16.24
11.70
12.37
13.08
13.82
14.62
For thermal power stations with multiple units of the above sizes, the CERC has introduced the concept of
reduction factor, which will apply to units commissioned after April 2009. The normative O&M expenses for the
new units will be determined by multiplying these factors with the normative O&M expenses detailed above.
Table 4: Reduction Factor in O&M costs for Thermal Power Projects with Multiple Units
Unit Specification
200/210/250 MW Additional 5th & 6th unit
300/330/350 MW Additional 4th & 5th Unit
500 MW & Above Additional 3rd & 4th Unit
Reduction Factor
0.9
Additional 7th & more unit
0.9
Additional 6th Unit & more
0.9
Additional 5th & above unit
Reduction Factor
0.85
0.85
0.85
As the preceding table 3 shows, the regulator has allowed a significant increase in O&M expenses for the tariff
period 2009-14, permitting an escalation rate of 5.72%, as against the 4% earlier. While the increase in O&M
expense over the previous tariff period is a positive for utilities, there has also been a significant rise in actual
O&M expenses, especially manpower expenses following the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission.
On the negative side, the bigger power plants with multiple units will see a reduction in their normative O&M
expenses. However, in ICRAs opinion, the bigger power projects would be able to offset the negative impact of
the reduction in normative O&M expenses on the strength of their superior scale economies.
Table 5: Separate Compensation Allowance for Coal based Thermal Power Projects
Years of Operation
0-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
Rs. Lakh/MW
Nil
0.15
0.35
0.65
In addition to the Normative O&M costs, the regulator has also allowed a separate compensation allowance (as
mentioned in table 5) for meeting the expenses on new capital assets, which will be based on year of completion
of the project.
(f) Cost of Secondary Fuel Oil & Limestone
While conventionally, the cost of Secondary Fuel Oil (SFO) is included in energy charges, in the regulations for
the period 2009-14, the CERC has included the cost as part of AFC. Projects will be able to recover the cost of
SFO on the basis of normative consumption norms (discussed later) specified by the regulator and the Plant
Availability Factor during the year.
(g) Special Allowance In Lieu of R&M
The CERC in its previous regulations followed the policy of additional capitalisation arising out of any major
renovation and modernisation (R&M) expenditure, whereby such capital expenditure was added to the previously
approved gross block of the plant to determine the future tariffs. In its new regulations for the period 2009-14, the
CERC has given an option to a coal based thermal power plants to avail of a special allowance as a part of AFC
for meeting R&M expenses beyond the useful life of the power project. However in case the utility opts for this
allowance as a part of AFC, there will be no increase in capital costs on account of capital expenditure incurred
on R&M of power plant during the subsequent periods and no relaxed operational norms will be allowed for such
Page 4
Component of AFC
Return on Equity
Interest on Loan Capital
Depreciation
2009-14
2004-09
15.5%
14%
As per Actual
As per Actual
5.28%
2.57% + AAD*
Based on Normative Based on Normative
Parameters
Parameters
Based on Normative Based on Normative
Parameters
Parameters
Remarks
Significantly Positive
Marginally Positive
Negative
No Impact
Positive
Page 5
Points a,b,c for hydro power stations will be similar to those discussed in the case of thermal power stations
(d) Interest on Working Capital
Working capital for a hydro power station will have the following components:
Table 8: Components of Working Capital for Hydro Power Projects
Components
1
Maintenance Spares
2
3
Sales Receivables
O&M expense
2009-14
15% of O&M Costs
2 Months
1 Month
2004-09
1.5% of Historical Capital
Cost escalated @ 6% p.a.
2 Months
1 Month
Remarks
Negative
No Impact
No Impact
Considering the above normative parameters, a utility can recover an interest @ prevailing Short Term Prime
Lending Rate (PLR) of State Bank of India. ICRA expects no significant impact arising out of new regulations on
the recoverability of Interest on Working Capital.
(e) Operations & Maintenance Costs
Since various factors such as location, topography, and project layout determine the nature of a particular hydro
power station, the O&M costs for two hydro plants can vary and hence no normative parameters for O&M
expenses have been defined by the CERC. As a result, the actual O&M expenses (excluding abnormal expenses)
for the period 2003-04 to 2007-08 will form the basis for O&M expenses for the tariff period 2009-14.
For practical purposes, the normalised O&M expenses for the period 2003-04 to 2007-08 will be escalated at
5.17% p.a. to arrive at the 2007-08 price levels and the average of these expenses at the 2007-08 price levels will
be escalated at 5.72% p.a. to arrive at the O&M expenses for the year 2009-10. To account for the increase in
employee cost on account of pay revision, O&M expenses for 2009-10 will be increased by 50% (positive), which
will form the base for the next years in the tariff period.
For new plants commissioned after 2009 April, 2% of the project cost (excluding R&R expenses) will form the
base O&M expense, which will be escalated @ 5.72% p.a. The new norms provide for better coverage of O&M
expenses, as the regulations for the period 2004-09 allowed an O&M cost of 1.5% of the capital cost escalated @
4% p.a.
CI = Declared Capacity (DC) (MW) / Maximum Available Capacity (MAC) (MW) x 100
where DC is the power that is expected to be generated next day based on availability of water & machine; and
MAC is the maximum power that a station can generate with all units running, under the prevailing water levels
and flows over the peaking hours next day.
ICRA Rating Services
Page 6
Capacity Charge (Rs. lakh) = AFC x 0.5 x (Actual Plant Availability Factor/Normative Plant Availability Factor)
Energy Charge (Rs/Kwh) = AFC x 0.5/Design Energy (adjusted for Auxiliary consumption and free power sale)
Total Energy Charge (Rs. Lakh) = Energy Charge (Rs/Kwh) x Actual Generation
The regulator has capped the energy charges at Re. 0.80 paisa per KWh. (for all the hydro projects)
Following the division of AFC into Capacity Charge and Energy Charge, the benefits and losses arising out of
variation in water availability will be shared as follows:
Table 9: Impact of Deviation in Actual Power Generation Vs Design Energy on Recovery of AFC
Parameter
Impact on AFC
1 Actual Generation = Design Energy
Complete Recovery of AFC
2 Actual Generation > Design Energy
Partial sharing of benefits of secondary energy with beneficiaries
3 Actual Generation < Design Energy *
Partial sharing of losses on account of lower generation by generator
* for new stations with less than 10 years of operation, in case Actual Generation < Design Generation, Actual
Generation will be assumed to be Design Energy, thereby protecting the new project from hydrological risks
Till the tariff period 2004-09, the energy generated over and above the design energy was sold to beneficiaries at
the lowest variable cost of generation of a thermal plant in their grid. However, according to the formula for energy
charge under the new regulations, a hydro power plant that has been in operation for many years and has largely
paid off its debt thereby resulting in lower AFC and hence a lower energy charge thereby loosing on the power
generated over the design energy. On the other hand, a new power plant will benefit from its higher AFC by virtue
of debt repayments and hence benefitting from a higher energy charge (although capped at Re. 0.80).
Effort to Incentivise Peaking Load Generation
The CERC has emphasised the need for hydro power plants to meet the peaking load requirements, and has
stated the norms of operation for hydro power plants by specifying the Normative Annual Plant Availability Factors
(NAPAF). These NAPAF are based on actual hydrological data for the period 2003-04 to 2007-08 for the existing
stations.
Table 10: Parameter for recovery of AFC
2009-14
2004-09
Normative Plant Availability Factor (NPAF) Capacity Index
1 Purely Run-on-the-River (RoR) Stations
90%
New Regulation specifies NPAF based on
actual hydrological data for past 5 years
2 Storage Type Station or RoR Station with Pondage
85%
For complete recovery of Capacity Charges (as discussed above), a plant has to achieve at least a PAF equal to
the NAPAF. In case the actual PAF is higher than the NAPAF, the generating company will be eligible for
incentives, which hitherto were linked to the Actual Capacity Index (under the earlier regulations).
PAF = Declared Capacity/Installed Capacity (Adjusted for Auxiliary Consumption)
where Declared Capacity is the ex-bus power that the station can deliver for at least three hours as certified by the
load dispatch centre after the day is over
As a result, for achieving a high PAF, the generator will have to operate closer to installed capacity for at least
three hours and earn incentives instead of operating at a steady load for longer periods.
On the negative side, the linking of recovery of AFC to NAPAF will negatively impact such hydro power plants
whose design energy during the lean season is not sufficient to generate three hours of peaking energy, thereby
resulting in lower PAF and under-recovery of AFC.
Page 7
Transmission Licensees
As in the case of hydro power stations, much of the costs of transmission companies are also fixed in nature. The
components of AFC for transmission companies also include the five components discussed under AFC for hydro
Power Projects.
a
b
c
Component of AFC
Return on Equity
Interest on Loan Capital
Depreciation
2009-14
2004-09
15.5%
14%
As per Actual
As per Actual
5.28%
3.6% + AAD*
Based on Normative Based on Normative
Parameters
Parameters
Based on Normative Based on Normative
Parameters
Parameters
Remarks
Significantly Positive
Marginally Positive
Negative
No Impact
Positive
Except for normative O&M costs, the other components of AFC are similar for transmission companies and hydro
power stations (these have been discussed earlier in this report).
(e) Operation & Maintenance Costs
Normative O&M expenses for a transmission licence under the 2004-09 regulations were allowed on the basis of
the length of the transmission line in circuit kilometres (CKm) and the number of substation-wise. These normative
O&M expenses were constant across voltages levels of the transmission lines and substations. However, under
the new regulations, the CERC has not only defined O&M expenses on the basis of the voltage levels (higher
O&M expenses for higher voltages), but also allowed a considerable increase in these O&M expenses over the
previous regulatory period.
a
b
c
Transmission System
AC System
HVDC bi-pole links
HVDC Back to Back Station
2009-14
98%
92%
95%
2004-09
98%
95%
95%
Remarks
No Impact
Marginally Positive
No Impact
As the table 12 shows, the operating norms remain largely remain similar to what were prevailing in the earlier
regulatory period, except for a marginal reduction in the operating norms for HVDC bi-pole links, which will have a
marginally positive impact on the profitability of transmission licence by way of higher incentive income in case of
higher than normative availability.
Page 8
Page 9
ICRA Limited
An Associate of Moody's Investors Service
CORPORATE OFFICE
Building No. 8, 2nd Floor, Tower A; DLF Cyber City, Phase II; Gurgaon 122 002
Tel: +91 124 4545300; Fax: +91 124 4545350
Email: info@icraindia.com, Website: www.icra.in
REGISTERED OFFICE
1105, Kailash Building, 11th Floor; 26 Kasturba Gandhi Marg; New Delhi 110001
Tel: +91 11 23357940-50; Fax: +91 11 23357014
Branches: Mumbai: Tel.: + (91 22) 24331046/53/62/74/86/87, Fax: + (91 22) 2433 1390 Chennai: Tel +
(91 44) 2434 0043/9659/8080, 2433 0724/ 3293/3294, Fax + (91 44) 2434 3663 Kolkata: Tel + (91 33)
2287 8839 /2287 6617/ 2283 1411/ 2280 0008, Fax + (91 33) 2287 0728 Bangalore: Tel + (91 80) 2559
7401/4049 Fax + (91 80) 559 4065 Ahmedabad: Tel + (91 79) 2658 4924/5049/2008, Fax + (91 79) 2658
4924 Hyderabad: Tel +(91 40) 2373 5061/7251, Fax + (91 40) 2373 5152 Pune: Tel + (91 20) 2552
0194/95/96, Fax + (91 20) 553 9231
Copyright, 2009 ICRA Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Contents may be used freely with due acknowledgement to ICRA.
ICRA ratings should not be treated as recommendation to buy, sell or hold the rated debt instruments. ICRA ratings are
subject to a process of surveillance, which may lead to revision in ratings. Please visit our website
(www.icra.in/www.icraratings.com) or contact any ICRA office for the latest information on ICRA ratings outstanding. All
information contained herein has been obtained by ICRA from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Although
reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information herein is true, such information is provided 'as is' without
any warranty of any kind, and ICRA in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the
accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any such information. All information contained herein must be construed solely
as statements of opinion, and ICRA shall not be liable for any losses incurred by users from any use of this publication or
its contents.
Page 10