Harvard Jornal Paper On Guns

WOULDBANNINGFIREARMSREDUCE
MURDERANDSUICIDE?
AREVIEWOFINTERNATIONALAND
SOMEDOMESTICEVIDENCE
DONB.KATES*ANDGARYMAUSER**
INTRODUCTION ............................................................650
I. VIOLENCE:THEDECISIVENESSOF
SOCIALFACTORS ...................................................660
II. ASKINGTHEWRONGQUESTION ..........................662
III. DOORDINARYPEOPLEMURDER?........................665
IV. MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME?....................................670
V. GEOGRAPHIC,HISTORICALANDDEMOGRAPHIC
PATTERNS ...............................................................673
A. DemographicPatterns ..................................676
B. MacrohistoricalEvidence:Fromthe
MiddleAgestothe20thCentury .................678
C. LaterandMoreSpecificMacroHistorical
Evidence..........................................................684
D. GeographicPatternswithinNations ..........685
*DonB.Kates(LL.B.,Yale,1966)isanAmericancriminologistandconstitutional
lawyerassociatedwiththePacificResearchInstitute,SanFrancisco.Hemaybecon
tactedatdbkates@earthlink.net;3606662688;22608N.E.269thAve.,BattleGround,
WA98604.
**GaryMauser(Ph.D.,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,1970)isaCanadiancrimi
nologistanduniversityprofessoratSimonFraserUniversity,Burnaby,BCCanada.
He may be contacted at www.garymauser.net, mauser@sfu.ca, and 6042913652.
WegratefullyacknowledgethegenerouscontributionsofProfessorThomasB.Cole
(University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Social Medicine and Epidemiology);
Chief Superintendent Colin Greenwood (West Yorkshire Constabulary, ret.); C.B.
Kates; Abigail Kohn (University of Sydney, Law); David B. Kopel (Independence
Institute); Professor Timothy D. Lytton (Albany Law School); Professor William
Alex Pridemore (University of Oklahoma, Sociology); Professor Randolph Roth
(Ohio State University, History); Professor Thomas Velk (McGill University, Eco
nomics and Chairman of the North American Studies Program); Professor Robert
Weisberg (Stanford Law School); and John Whitley (University of Adelaide, Eco
nomics). Anymeritsof thispaperreflect theiradviceandcontributions;errors are
entirelyours.
650
HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy
[Vol.30
E. GeographicComparisons:European
GunOwnershipandMurderRates ..........687
F. GeographicComparisons:GunOwnership
andSuicideRates ...........................................690
CONCLUSION ................................................................693
INTRODUCTION
Internationalevidenceandcomparisonshavelongbeenoffered
asproofofthemantrathatmoregunsmeanmoredeathsandthat
fewer guns, therefore, mean fewer deaths.1 Unfortunately, such
discussionsarealltoooftenbeenafflictedbymisconceptionsand
factualerrorandfocusoncomparisonsthatareunrepresentative.
It may be useful to begin with a few examples. There is a com
poundassertionthat(a)gunsareuniquelyavailableintheUnited
Statescomparedwithothermoderndevelopednations,whichis
why (b) the United States has by far the highest murder rate.
Thoughtheseassertionshavebeenendlesslyrepeated,statement
(b)is,infact,falseandstatement(a)issubstantiallyso.
Sinceatleast1965,thefalseassertionthattheUnitedStateshas
theindustrializedworldshighestmurderratehasbeenanartifact
ofpoliticallymotivatedSovietminimizationdesignedtohidethe
truehomiciderates.2Sincewellbeforethatdate,theSovietUnion
1.See, e.g., JOHN GODWIN, MURDER USA: THE WAYS WE KILL EACH OTHER 281
(1978) (Areas with the highest proportion of gun owners also boast the highest
homicide ratios; those with the fewest gun owners have the lowest.); N. PETE
SHIELDS, GUNS DONT DIE, PEOPLE DO 64 (1981) (quotingandendorsinganEnglish
academics remark: We cannot help but believe that America ought to share the
basic premise of our gun legislationthat the availability of firearms breeds vio
lence.); Janice Somerville, Gun Control as Immunization, AM. MED. NEWS, Jan. 3,
1994, at 9 (quoting public health activist Katherine Christoffel, M.D.: Guns are a
virusthatmustbeeradicated....Getridoftheguns,getridofthebullets,andyou
getridofthedeaths.);DeaneCalhoun,FromControversytoPrevention:BuildingEf
fective Firearm Policies, INJ. PROTECTION NETWORK NEWSL., Winter 198990, at 17
([G]uns arenotjust aninanimateobject [sic], butin factareasocial ill.);see also
WENDY CUKIER & VICTOR W. SIDEL, THE GLOBAL GUN EPIDEMIC: FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT SPECIALSTO AK47S (2006); SusanBaker,WithoutGuns,DoPeopleKillPeople?
75 AM. J. PUB. HEALTH 587 (1985); Paul Cotton, GunAssociated Violence Increasingly
ViewedasPublicHealthChallenge,267 J. AM. MED. ASSN 1171 (1992); DianeSchetky,
ChildrenandHandguns:APublicHealthConcern,139AM.J.DIS.CHILD.229,230(1985);
Lois A. Fingerhut & Joel C. Kleinman, International and Interstate Comparisons of
HomicidesAmongYoungMales,263J.AM.MED.ASSN3292,3295(1990).
2.SeeWilliamAlexPridemore,UsingNewlyAvailableHomicideDatatoDebunkTwo
MythsAboutViolenceinanInternationalContext:AResearchNote,5HOMICIDE STUD.
267(2001).
No.2]WouldBanningFirearmsReduceMurderandSuicide?
651
possessedextremelystringentguncontrols3thatwereeffectuated
by a policestateapparatus providing stringentenforcement.4 So
successful was that regime that few Russian civilians now have
firearmsandveryfewmurdersinvolvethem.5 Yet,manifestsuc
cess in keeping its people disarmed did not prevent the Soviet
Unionfromhavingfarandawaythehighestmurderrateinthe
developedworld.6Inthe1960sandearly1970s,thegunlessSo
vietUnionsmurderratesparalleledorgenerallyexceededthose
ofgunriddenAmerica.WhileAmericanratesstabilizedandthen
steeply declined, however, Russian murder increased so drasti
cally that by the early 1990s the Russian rate was three times
higherthanthatoftheUnitedStates.Between19982004(thelat
estfigureavailableforRussia),Russianmurderrateswerenearly
fourtimeshigherthanAmericanrates.Similarmurderratesalso
characterize the Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and various
othernowindependentEuropeannationsoftheformerU.S.S.R.7
Thus,intheUnitedStatesandtheformerSovietUniontransition
ingintocurrentdayRussia,homicideresultssuggestthatwhere
3.See GEORGE NEWTON & FRANKLIN ZIMRING, FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE IN

AMERICANLIFE:ASTAFFREPORTSUBMITTEDTOTHENATIONALCOMMISSIONONTHE
CAUSESANDPREVENTIONOFVIOLENCE119&n.3(1970).
4.Russian law flatly prohibits civilian possession of handguns and limits long
guns to licensed hunters. Id. For more on the stringency of enforcement, see Ray
mondKessler,GunControlandPoliticalPower,5LAW&POLYQ.381,389(1983),and
Randy E. Barnett & Don B. Kates, Under Fire: The New Consensus on the Second
Amendment,45 EMORY L. J. 1139, 1239(1996)(notinganunusualfurtherelementof
Sovietgunpolicy:theSovietArmyadopteduniquefirearmcaliberssothat,evenif
itssoldierscouldnotbepreventedfromreturningwithforeigngunsouvenirsfrom
foreignwars,ammunitionforthemwouldbeunavailableintheSovietUnion).
5.SeePridemore,supranote2,at271.
6.Russianhomicidedatagiveninthisarticle(foryears196599)werekindlysup
pliedusbyProfessorPridemorefromhisresearchinRussianministrysources(on
filewithauthors).SeealsoinfraTable1(reportingRussianhomicidedatafor2002).
7.ThehighestU.S.homiciderateeverreportedwas10.5per100,000in1980.See
JefferyA.Miron,Violence,Guns,andDrugs:ACrossCountryAnalysis,44J.L.&ECON.
615,62425tbl.1(2001).Asof2001,theratewasbelow6.Id.Thelatestratesavailable
fortheUkraine,Belarus,andotherformerSovietnationsinEuropecomefromthe
mid1990s,whenallwerewellabove10andmostwere50%to150%higher.Id.
NotethattheU.S.ratesgivenaboveareratesreportedbytheFBI.Therearetwo
different sources of U.S. murder rates. The FBI murder data is based on reports it
obtainsfrompoliceagenciesthroughoutthenation.Thesedataaresignificantlyless
completethanthealternative(usedinthisarticleunlessotherwiseexplicitlystated)
ratesoftheU.S.PublicHealthService,whicharederivedfromdatacollectedfrom
medicalexaminersofficesnationwide.Thoughthelatterdataaremorecomprehen
sive,andthePublicHealthServicemurderrateisslightlyhigher,theyhavethedis
advantageofbeingslowertoappearthantheFBIhomicidedata.
652
[Vol.30
gunsarescarceotherweaponsaresubstitutedinkillings.8While
Americangunownershipisquitehigh,Table1showsmanyother
developed nations (e.g., Norway, Finland, Germany, France,
Denmark) with high rates of gun ownership. These countries,
however, have murder rates as low or lower than many devel
opednationsinwhichgunownershipismuchrarer.Forexample,
Luxembourg,wherehandgunsaretotallybannedandownership
of any kind of gun is minimal, had a murder rate nine times
higherthanGermanyin2002.9
Table1:EuropeanGunOwnershipandMurderRates
(ratesgivenareper100,000peopleandindescendingorder)
Nation
Russia
Luxembourg
Hungary
Finland
Sweden
Poland
France
Denmark
Greece
Switzerland
Germany
Norway
Austria
MurderRate
20.54[2002]
9.01[2002]
2.22[2003]
1.98[2004]
1.87[2001]
1.79[2003]
1.65[2003]
1.21[2003]
1.12[2003]
0.99[2003]
0.93[2003]
0.81[2001]
0.80[2002]
RateofGunOwnership
4,000
c.0
2,000
39,000
24,000
1,500
30,000
19,000
11,000
16,000
30,000
36,000
17,000
Notes:ThistablecoversalltheContinentalEuropeannationsforwhich
the two data sets given are both available. In every case, we have given
the homicide data for 2003 or the closest year thereto because that is the
yearofthepublicationfromwhichthegunownershipdataaretaken.Gun
ownership data comes from GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES,SMALLARMSSURVEY64tbl.2.2,65tbl.2.3(2003).
The homicide rate data comes from an annually published report,

CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA,
JURISTAT,fortheyears20012004.Eachyearsreportgiveshomicidesta
tistics for a dozen or so foreign nations in a section labeled Homicide
RatesforSelectedCountries.Thissectionofthereportsgivesnoexplana
8.GARY KLECK, TARGETING GUNS: FIREARMS AND THEIR CONTROL20(1997)(dis

cussingpatternsrevealedbystudiesintheUnitedStates).
9.OurassertionsastothelegalityofhandgunsarebasedonCOMMNON CRIME
PREVENTION & CRIM. JUSTICE, U.N. ECON. & SOC. COUNCIL, UNITED NATIONS
INTERNATIONALSTUDYONFIREARMSREGULATION26,tbl.21(1997draft).
653
tionofwhyitselectsthevariousnationswhosehomicidestatisticsitcov
ers. Also without explanation, the nations covered differ from year to
year. Thus, for instance, murder statistics for Germany and Hungary are
given in all four of the pamphlets (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004), for Russia in
threeyears(2001,2002,and2004),forFranceintwoyears(2001and2003),
andforNorwayandSwedeninonlyoneyear(2001).
The same pattern appears when comparisons of violence to

gunownershiparemadewithinnations.Indeed,dataonfire
arms ownership by constabulary area in England, like data
fromtheUnitedStates,showanegativecorrelation,10thatis,
wherefirearmsaremostdenseviolentcrimeratesarelowest,
and where guns are least dense violent crime rates are high
est.11 Many different data sets from various kinds of sources
aresummarizedasfollowsbytheleadingtext:
[T]here is no consistent significant positive association be
tween gun ownership levels and violence rates: across (1)
time within the United States, (2) U.S. cities, (3) counties
within Illinois, (4) countrysized areas like England, U.S.
states, (5) regions of the United States, (6) nations, or (7)
populationsubgroups....12
Asecondmisconceptionabouttherelationshipbetweenfire
arms and violence attributes Europes generally low homicide
10.JOYCE LEE MALCOLM, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE ENGLISH EXPERIENCE 204
(2002).
11.Hans Toch & Alan J. Lizotte, Research and Policy: The Case for Gun Control, in
PSYCHOLOGY & SOCIAL POLICY 223, 232 (Peter Suedfeld & Philip E. Tetlock eds.,
1992);seealsoid.at234&n.10([T]hefactthatnationalpatternsshowlittleviolent
crimewheregunsaremostdenseimpliesthatgunsdonotelicitaggressioninany
meaningfulway....Quitethecontrary,thesefindingssuggestthathighsaturations
ofgunsinplaces,orsomethingcorrelatedwiththatcondition,inhibitillegalaggres
sion.).
Approaching the matter from a different direction, the earliest data (nineteenth
centuryon)revealsthattheAmericanjurisdictionswiththemoststringentguncon
trols are in general the ones with the highest murder rates. Conversely, American
states with homicide rates as low as Western Europes have high gun ownership,
andimposeno controlsdesignedtodenygunstolawabiding,responsibleadults.
Many possible reasons may be offered for these two facts, but none suggests that
guncontrolreducesmurder.
Forexaminationofawidevarietyofstudiesfindinglittleevidenceinsupportof
the efficacy of gun controls in reducing violence, see JAMES B. JACOBS, CAN GUN
CONTROL WORK? 11120 (2002); KLECK, supra note 8, at 35177; JOHN R. LOTT, JR.,
MORE GUNS, LESS CRIME: UNDERSTANDING CRIMEAND GUN CONTROL LAWS1920
(1998);JAMES D. WRIGHTETAL.,UNDERTHE GUN: WEAPONS, CRIMEAND VIOLENCE
IN AMERICA 30708 (1983); Matthew R. DeZee, Gun Control Legislation: Impact and
Ideology,5LAW&POLYQ.367,36971(1983).
12.KLECK,supranote8,at2223.
654
[Vol.30
ratestostringentguncontrol.Thatattributioncannotbeaccu
rate since murder in Europe was at an alltime low before the
guncontrolswereintroduced.13Forinstance,virtuallytheonly
Englishguncontrolduringthenineteenth andearlytwentieth
centuries was the practice that police patrolled without guns.
DuringthisperiodguncontrolprevailedfarlessinEnglandor
Europe than in certain American states which nevertheless
hadand continue to havemurder rates that were and are
comparativelyveryhigh.14
Inthisconnection,tworecentstudiesarepertinent.In2004,
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences released its evaluation
fromareviewof253journalarticles,99books,43government
publications,andsomeoriginalempiricalresearch.Itfailedto
identify any gun control that had reduced violent crime, sui
cide, or gun accidents.15 The same conclusion was reached in
2003bytheU.S.CentersforDiseaseControlsreviewofthen
extantstudies.16
Stringent gun controls were not adopted in England and
Western Europe until after World War I. Consistent with the
outcomesoftherecentAmericanstudiesjustmentioned,these
strict controls did not stem the general trend of evergrowing
violent crime throughout the postWWII industrialized world
including the United States and Russia. Professor Malcolms
study of English gun law and violent crime summarizes that
13.Barnett&Kates,supranote4,at13842.
14.Intheperiodbetween1900and1935,Arkansas,Hawaii,Michigan,Missouri,
NewJersey,NewYork,NorthCarolina,Oregon,andSouthCarolinaadoptedlaws
variously requiring a license to own or buy a handgun or banning handgun pur
chasealtogether,andSaturdayNightSpecialtypebansexistedinTennessee,Ar
kansas, and various other Southern states. Don B. Kates, Jr., Toward a History of
Handgun Prohibition in the United States, in RESTRICTING HANDGUNS: THE LIBERAL
SKEPTICSSPEAKOUT7,1415(DonB.Kates,Jr.ed.,1979).
15.CHARLES F. WELLFORD ET AL., NATL RESEARCH COUNCIL, FIREARMS AND
VIOLENCE: A CRITICAL REVIEW610(2004).Itisperhapsnotamisstonotethatthe
reviewpanel,whichwassetupduringtheClintonAdministration,wascomposed
almostentirelyofscholarswho,totheextenttheirviewswerepubliclyknownbe
foretheirappointments,favoredguncontrol.
16.TaskForceonCommunityPreventitiveServs.,Ctrs.forDiseaseControl,First
ReportsEvaluatingtheEffectivenessofStrategiesforPreventingViolence:FirearmsLaws,
52MORTALITY & MORBIDITY WKLY. REP. (RR14 RECOMMENDATIONS & REP.) 11,16
(2003), available at http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm.
The CDC is vehemently antigun and interpreted its results to show not that the
moregunsequalmoredeathmantraiserroneous,butonlythatthescoresofstud
iesitreviewedwereinconclusivelydone.
655
nations nineteenth and twentieth century experience as fol

lows:
ThepeacefulnessEnglandusedtoenjoywasnottheresultof
strict gun laws. When it had no firearms restrictions [nine
teenth and early twentieth century] England had little vio
lent crime, while the present extraordinarily stringent gun
controls have not stopped the increase in violence or even
theincreaseinarmedviolence.17
Armed crime, never a problem in England, has now be
comeone.HandgunsarebannedbuttheKingdomhasmil
lions of illegal firearms. Criminals have no trouble finding
themandexhibitanewwillingnesstousethem.Inthedec
adeafter1957, the use ofgunsin serious crime increased a
hundredfold.18
Inthelate1990s,Englandmovedfromstringentcontrolstoa
complete ban of all handguns and many types of long guns.
Hundreds of thousands of guns were confiscated from those
owners lawabiding enough to turn them in to authorities.
Withoutsuggestingthiscausedviolence,thebansineffective
ness was such that by the year 2000 violent crime had so in
creased that England and Wales had Europes highest violent
crimerate,farsurpassingeventheUnitedStates.19Today,Eng
lish news media headline violence in terms redolent of the
doleful, melodramatic language that for so long characterized
American news reports.20 One aspect of Englands recent ex
17.MALCOLM,supranote10,at219.
18.Id.at209.
19.SeeEstherBoutenetal.,CriminalVictimizationinSeventeenIndustrializedCoun
tries, in CRIME VICTIMIZATION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: RESULTS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL CRIME VICTIMS SURVEY, 19892000 at13,1516(PaulNieuwbeerta
ed.,2002).Thesurveysinvolvedwereconductedundertheauspicesofthegovern
ments of each nation and the general supervision of the University of Leiden and
theDutchMinistryofJustice.
20.See, e.g., Gun Crime Growing Like Cancer, BBC NEWS, May 21, 2003,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/England/3043701.stm; David Bamber, Gun Crime Trebles
asWeaponsandDrugsFloodBritishCities,TELEGRAPHONLINE(London),Feb.27,2002,
http://www.telegraoh.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/02/24/nguns24.xml;
JasonBennetto,FirearmsAmnestytoTackleSurgeinGunCrime,INDEPENDENT(Lon
don), Dec. 27, 2002, at 1; Ian Burrell, Police Move to Tackle Huge Rise in Gun Crime,
INDEPENDENT(London),Jan.15,2001,at3;DanielFoggo&CarlFellstrom,WeAre
ReelingwiththeMurders,WeAreinaCrisiswithMajorCrime,SUNDAYTELEGRAPH
(London), Mar. 13, 2005, at 4; Johann Hari, The British Become Trigger Happy, NEW
STATESMAN(London),Nov.5,2001,at35;PhilipJohnston,GunCrimeRisesDespite
DunblanePistolBan,DAILYTELEGRAPH(London),Jul.17,2001,at05;DavidLeppard
& Rachel Dobson, Murder Rate Soars to Highest for a Century, SUNDAY TIMES (Lon
656
[Vol.30
perience deserves note, given how often and favorably advo

cateshavecomparedEnglishgunpolicytoitsAmericancoun
terpart over the past 35 years.21 A generally unstated issue in
thisnotoriouslyemotionaldebatewastheeffectoftheWarren
CourtandlaterrestrictionsonpolicepowersonAmericangun
policy. Critics of these decisions pointed to soaring American
crime rates and argued simplistically that such decisions
caused,oratleasthampered,policeinsuppressingcrime.But
to some supporters of these judicial decisions, the example of
Englandarguedthatthesolutiontocrimewastorestrictguns,
notcivilliberties.Toguncontroladvocates,England,thecradle
of our liberties, was a nation made so peaceful by strict gun
control that its police did not even need to carry guns. The
United States, it was argued, could attain such a desirable
situation by radically reducing gun ownership, preferably by
banningandconfiscatinghandguns.
The resultsdiscussedearlier contradict those expectations.On
the one hand, despite constant and substantially increasing gun
ownership, the United States saw progressive and dramatic re
ductionsincriminalviolenceinthe1990s.Ontheotherhand,the
same time period in the United Kingdom saw a constant and
dramatic increase in violent crime to which Englands response
wasevermoredrasticguncontrolincluding,eventually,banning
and confiscating all handguns and many types of long guns.22
Nevertheless, criminal violence rampantly increased so that by
2000 England surpassed the United States to become one of the
developedworldsmostviolenceriddennations.
don),Oct.13,2002,at1;AdamMitchell,GunKillingsDoubleasPoliceClaimProgress,
DAILYTELEGRAPH(London),Aug.17,2001,at13;JohnSteele,PoliceFearaNewCrime
Wave as SchoolAge Muggers Graduate to Guns, DAILY TELEGRAPH (London), Jan. 3,
2002,at04; JonUngoedThomas,KillingsRiseas3mIllegalGunsFloodBritain,SUN
DAY TIMES(London),Jan.16,2000;PeterWoolrich,BritainsToughGunControlLaws
TermedTotalFailure:LandofHopeandGunrunning,PUNCHMAG.,May3,2000.
21.See,e.g.,CARL BAKAL,THERIGHTTOBEARARMS1011,31,279(1966);RAMSEY
CLARK, CRIME IN AMERICA 10405, 109 (1970); AMITAI ETZIONI & RICHARD REMP,
TECHNOLOGICAL SHORTCUTS TO SOCIAL CHANGE 136 (1973); Natl Coalition to Ban
Handguns, A Shooting Gallery Called America (undated, unpaginated pamphlet);
SHIELDS, supra note 1, at 6364; Irwin Bloch, Gun Control Would Reduce Crime, re
printedinWouldGunControlReduceCrime197(DavidBendered.,1989);RobertS.
Drinan, Banning Handguns Would Reduce Crime, reprinted in GUNS & CRIME 4546
(TararaRoleffed.,1999).
22.MALCOLM, supra note 10, at 164216. We should clarify that the twin trends
towardmoreviolentcrimeandmoreguncontrolbeganlongbeforethe1990s.Seeid.
657
To conserve the resources of the inundated criminal justice

system,Englishpolicenolongerinvestigateburglaryandmi
norassaults.23Asof2006,ifthepolicecatchamugger,robber,
orburglar,orotherminorcriminalintheact,thepolicyisto
releasethemwithawarningratherthantoarrestandprosecute
them.24 It used to be that English police vehemently opposed
theideaofarmedpolicing.Today,evermorepolicearebeing
armed. Justifying the assignment of armed squads to block
roadsandcarryoutrandomcarsearches,apolicecommander
asserts:Itisamassivedeterrenttogunmeniftheythinkthat
therearegoingtobearmedpolice.25Howfaristhatfromthe
rationale on which 40 American states have enacted laws giv
ingqualified,trainedcitizenstherighttocarryconcealedguns?
Indeed,newsmediaeditorialshaveappearedinEnglandargu
ingthatciviliansshouldbeallowedgunsfordefense.26Thereis
currently a vigorous controversy over proposals (which the
Blair government first endorsed but now opposes) to amend
thelawofselfdefensetoprotectvictimsfromprosecutionfor
usingdeadlyforceagainstburglars.27
The divergence between the United States and the British
Commonwealth became especially pronounced during the
23.Daniel Foggo, Dont Bother About Burglary, Police Told, SUNDAY TELEGRAPH
(LONDON),Jan.12,2003,at1(Policehavebeenorderednottobotherinvestigating
crimes such as burglary, vandalism and assaults unless evidence pointing to the
culpritsiseasilyavailable,TheSundayTelegraphcanreveal.Undernewguidelines,
officershavebeeninformedthatonlyseriouscrimes,suchasmurder,rapeorso
calledhatecrimes,shouldbe investigatedasa matterofcourse.Inallother cases,
unless there is immediate and compelling evidence, such as fingerprints or DNA
material,thecrimewillbelistedfornofurtheraction.).
24.SteveDoughty,LetBurglarsOffWithCautionPoliceTold,DAILYMAIL(London),
Apr.3,2006,at4.
25.Matthew Beard, Armed Police to Man Checkpoints in London as DrugRelated
CrimeSoars,INDEPENDENT(London),Sept.7,2002,at2.
26See Simon Heffer, If the State Fails Us, We Must Defend Ourselves, TELEGRAPH
ONLINE (London), Feb. 24, 2002, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/
opinion/2002/02/24/do2401.xml; see also Ian Bell, Dublane Made Us All Think About
Gun Control...So What Went Wrong?, SUNDAY HERALD (Scotland), Feb. 24, 2007,
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.1217778.0.dunblane_made
_us_all_think_about_gun_control_so_what_went_wrong.php;Comment,TheNight
My Daughter Was StabbedAnd My Liberal Instincts Died, DAILY MAIL (London),
Mar. 5, 2007, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_article_
id=440318&in_page_id=1766&ito=1490.
27.See Melissa Kite, Tories Launch Bill to Give Householders the Power to Tackle In
truders,SUNDAY TELEGRAPH(London),Dec.26,2004,at4;seealsoReneeLerner,The
Worldwide Popular Revolt Against Proportionality in SelfDefense Law, 2 J.L. ECON. &
POLY(2007).
658
[Vol.30
1980s and1990s.During these two decades, while Britain and

the Commonwealth were making lawful firearm ownership
increasingly difficult, more than 25 states in the United States
passed laws allowing responsible citizens to carry concealed
handguns.Therearenow40stateswherequalifiedcitizenscan
obtainsuchahandgunpermit.28Asaresult,thenumberofU.S.
citizens allowed to carry concealed handguns in shopping
malls,onthestreet,andintheircarshasgrownto3.5million
men and women.29 Economists John Lott and David Mustard
havesuggestedthatthesenewlawscontributedtothedropin
homicide and violent crime rates. Based on 25 years of corre
latedstatisticsfromallofthemorethan3,000Americancoun
ties,LottandMustardconcludethatadoptionofthesestatutes
has deterred criminals from confrontation crime and caused
murder and violent crime to fall faster in states that adopted
thispolicythaninstatesthatdidnot.30
28.InMarch2006,KansasandNebraskabecamethe39thand40thstates,respec
tively,topassshallissueconcealedcarrylegislation.InKansas,thestatelegisla
turevotedtooverturnthegovernorsvetoofthebipartisanlegislation.KansasHouse
Overrides ConcealedGunsBill Veto, DESERET MORNING NEWS, Mar. 24, 2006. In Ne
braska, the governor signed the bill as passed by the state legislature. Kevin
OHanlon,ConcealedWeaponsBillAdopted,LINCOLNJOURNALSTAR,Mar.31,2006.
29.DonKates,TheLimitedImportanceofGunControlfromaCriminologicalPerspec
tive,inSUINGTHE GUN INDUSTRY: A BATTLEATTHE CROSSROADSOF GUN CONTROL
ANDMASSTORTS62,64(TimothyD.Lyttoned.,2005).
30.See John R. Lott Jr. & David B. Mustard, Crime, Deterrence, and RighttoCarry
ConcealedHandguns,26J. LEGAL STUD. 1,1(1997);seealsoJOHN R. LOTT, JR.,MORE
GUNS, LESS CRIME19(2d.ed.2000).Thisconclusionisvehementlyrejectedbyanti
gun advocates and academics who oppose armed selfdefense. See, e.g., Albert W.
Alschuler,TwoGuns,FourGuns,SixGuns,MoreGuns:DoesArmingthePublicReduce
Crime?,31VAL. U. L. REV. 365, 366 (1997);IanAyres&JohnJ.DonohueIII,Shooting
DowntheMoreGuns,LessCrimeHypothesis,55STAN. L. REV. 1193,1197(2003);Dan
A.Black&DanielS.Nagin,DoRighttoCarryLawsDeterViolentCrime?,27J. LEGAL
STUD. 209, 209 (1998); Franklin Zimring & Gordon Hawkins, Concealed Handguns:
The Counterfeit Deterrent, RESPONSIVE COMMUNITY, Spring 1997, at 46; Daniel W.
Webster, The Claims That RighttoCarry Laws Reduce Violent Crime Are Unsubstanti
ated(JohnsHopkinsCenterforGunPolicyandResearch,1997).
SeveralcriticshavenowreplicatedLottsworkusingadditionalordifferentdata,
additional control variables, or new or different statistical techniques they deem
superiortothoseLottused.Interestingly,thereplicationsallconfirmLottsgeneral
conclusions;someevenfindthatLottunderestimatedthecrimereductiveeffectsof
allowinggoodcitizenstocarryconcealedguns.See JeffreyA.Miron,Violence,Guns,
andDrugs:ACrossCountryAnalysis,44 J.L. & ECON.615(2001);DavidB.Mustard,
TheImpactofGunLawsonPoliceDeaths,44J.L.&ECON.635(2001);JohnR.Lott,Jr.&
JohnE.Whitley,SafeStorageGunLaws:AccidentalDeaths,Suicides,andCrime,44 J.L.
& ECON. 659 (2001); Thomas B. Marvell, The Impact of Banning Juvenile Gun Posses
sion,44 J.L. & ECON.691(2001);JeffreyS.Parker,Guns,Crime,andAcademics:Some
ReflectionsontheGunControlDebate,44 J.L. & ECON.715(2001);BruceL.Benson&
659
Asindicatedintheprecedingfootnote,thenotionthatmore
guns reduce crime is highly controversial. What the contro
versyhasobscuredfromviewisthecorrosiveeffectoftheLott
and Mustard work on the tenet that more guns equal more
murder. As previously stated, adoption of state laws permit
tingmillionsofqualifiedcitizenstocarrygunshasnotresulted
inmoremurderorviolentcrimeinthesestates.Rather,adop
tionofthesestatuteshasbeenfollowedbyverysignificantre
ductionsinmurderandviolenceinthesestates.
To determine whether this expansion of gun availability
caused reductions in violent crime requires taking account of
various other factors that might also have contributed to the
decline.Forinstance,twoofLottsmajorcritics,Donohueand
Levitt,attributemuchofthedropinviolentcrimethatstarted
in1990stothelegalizationofabortioninthe1970s,whichthey
argue resulted in the nonbirth of vast numbers of children
who would have been disproportionately involved in violent
crimehadtheyexistedinthe1990s.31
The LottMustard studies did not address the Donohue
Levittthesis.LottandMustarddidaccount, however,fortwo
peculiarly Americanphenomenawhichmanypeoplebelieved
may have been responsible for the 1990s crime reduction: the
dramatic increase of the United States prison population and
thenumberofexecutions.TheprisonpopulationintheUnited
States tripled during this time period, jumping from approxi
mately100prisonersper100,000inthelate1970stomorethan
300 per 100,000 people in the general population in the early
1990s.32 In addition, executions in the United States soared
Brent D. Mast, Privately Produced General Deterrence, 44 J.L. & ECON. 725 (2001);
DavidE.Olson&MichaelD.Maltz,RighttoCarryConcealedWeaponLawsandHomi
cideinLargeU.S.Counties:TheEffectonWeaponTypes,VictimCharacteristics,andVic
timOffender Relationships, 44 J.L. & ECON. 747 (2001); Florenz Plassmann & T.
Nicolaus Tideman, Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable
Crimes?OnlyaCountAnalysisCanSay,44J.L.&ECON.771(2001);CarlisleE.Moody,
TestingfortheEffectsofConcealedWeaponsLaws:SpecificationErrorsandRobustness,44
J.L. & ECON.799(2001);seealsoFlorenzPlassman&JohnWhitley,ConfirmingMore
Guns, Less Crime, 55 STAN. L. REV. 1313, 1316 (2003). In 2003, Lott reiterated and
extendedhisfindings,whichweresubsequentlyendorsedbythreeNobellaureates.
SeeJOHNR.LOTT,JR.,THEBIASAGAINSTGUNS(2003).
31.SeeJohnJ.DonohueIII&StevenD.Levitt,TheImpactofLegalizedAbortionon
Crime,116Q.J.ECON.379(2001).
32.SeeBureauofJusticeStatistics,KeyFactsataGlance:IncarcerationRate,1980
2004 (Oct. 23, 2005), http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm, citing
ALLEN BECK & PAIGE HARRISON, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, CORRECTIONAL
POPULATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES 1997 (2000), available at
660
[Vol.30
fromapproximately5peryearintheearly1980stomorethan
27 per year in the early 1990s.33 Neither of these trends is re
flectedinCommonwealthcountries.
Althoughthereasonisthusobscured,theundeniableresult
is that violent crime, and homicide in particular, has plum
metedintheUnitedStatesoverthepast15years.34Thefallin
the American crime rate is even more impressive when com
paredwiththerestoftheworld.In18ofthe25countriessur
veyed by the British Home Office, violent crime increased
during the 1990s.35 This contrast should induce thoughtful
people to wonder what happened in those nations, and to
questionpoliciesbasedonthenotionthatintroducingincreas
ingly more restrictive firearm ownership laws reduces violent
crime. Perhaps the United States is doing something right in
promotingfirearmsforlawabidingresponsibleadults.Orper
haps the United States success in lowering its violent crime
raterelatestoincreasingitsprisonpopulationoritsdeathsen
tences.36Furtherresearchisrequiredtoidentifymoreprecisely
which elements of the United States approach are the most
important,orwhetherallthreeelementsactinginconcertwere
necessarytoreduceviolentcrimes.
I.
VIOLENCE:THEDECISIVENESSOFSOCIALFACTORS
Onereasontheextentofgunownershipinasocietydoesnot
spur the murder rate is that murderers are not spread evenly
throughout the population. Analysis of perpetrator studies
shows that violent criminalsespecially murderersalmost
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cpus97.pdf, and ALLEN BECK & PAIGE

HARRISON, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, PRISONERS IN 2004 (2005), available at
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/p04.pdf.).
33.THOMAS BONCZAR & TRACY L. SNELL, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS
BULLETIN,CAPITALPUNISHMENT2003,(2004),availableathttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/
bjs/pub/pdf/cp03.pdf.
34.See generally FBI, VIOLENT CRIME, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/
violent_crime/index.html;FBI,CRIMEINTHEUNITEDSTATESBYVOLUMEANDRATEPER
100,000INHABITANTS,19862005,http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_01.html.
35.SeeGordonBarclayetal.,InternationalComparisonsofCriminalJusticeStatistics
1999, HOME OFFICE STAT. BULL. (Research Development and Statistics, U.K. Home
Office, London, U.K.), 2001, available at http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/
hosb601.pdf.
36.Several recent studies by economists calculate that each execution deters the
commissionof19murders.SeeCassR.Sunstein&AdrianVermuele,IsCapitalPun
ishmentMorallyRequired?Acts,Omissions,andLifeLifeTradeoffs,58STAN. L. REV. 703
(2005).
661
uniformlyhavealonghistoryofinvolvementincriminalbehav
ior.37 So it would not appreciably raise violence if all law
abiding,responsiblepeoplehadfirearmsbecausetheyarenot
theoneswhorape,rob,ormurder.38Bythesametoken,violent
crimewouldnotfallifgunsweretotallybannedtocivilians.As
the respective examples of Luxembourg and Russia suggest,39
individuals who commit violent crimes will either find guns
despiteseverecontrolsorwillfindotherweaponstouse.40
Startling asthe foregoing mayseem, it represents the cross
nationalnorm,notsomebizarredeparturefromit.Iftheman
tra more guns equal more death and fewer guns equal less
death were true, broad based crossnational comparisons
shouldshowthatnationswithhighergunownershippercap
ita consistently have more death. Nations with higher gun
ownership rates, however, do not have higher murder or sui
cideratesthanthosewithlowergunownership.Indeedmany
high gun ownership nations have much lower murder rates.
Consider, for example, the wide divergence in murder rates
among Continental European nations with widely divergent
gunownershiprates.
The noncorrelation between gun ownership and murder
is reinforced by examination of statistics from larger num
bers of nations across the developed world. Comparison of
homicide and suicide mortality data for thirtysix nations
(including the United States) for the period 19901995 to
gun ownership levels showed no significant (at the 5%
level) association between gun ownership levels and the to
talhomiciderate.41ConsistentwiththisisalaterEuropean
studyofdatafrom21nationsinwhichnosignificantcorre
lations[ofgunownershiplevels]withtotalsuicideorhomi
ciderateswerefound.42
37.See Delbert S. Elliott, LifeThreatening Violence is Primarily a Crime Problem: A

FocusonPrevention,69COLO.L.REV.1081,1089(1998)(emphasisadded).
38.SeeinfraPartIII.
39.Seesupranotes39andTable1.
40.SeesupraTable1andinfraTables23.
41.KLECK, supra note 8, at 254. The study also found no correlation to suicide
rates.Id.
42.MartinKilliasetal.,Guns,ViolentCrime,andSuicidein21Countries,43CAN. J.
CRIMINOLOGY &CRIM.JUST.429,430(2001).Itbearsemphasisthattheauthors,who
aredeeplyantigun,emphasizetheverystrongcorrelationsbetweenthepresence
ofgunsinthehomeandsuicidecommittedwithagunasifthereweresomeimport
662
II.
[Vol.30
ASKINGTHEWRONGQUESTION
However unintentionally, the irrelevance of focusing on

weaponry is highlighted by the most common theme in the
more guns equal more death argument. Epitomizing this
themeisaWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)reportassert
ing, The easy availability of firearms has been associated
withhigherfirearmmortalityrates.43Theauthors,innoting
thatthepresenceofaguninahomecorrespondstoahigher
risk of suicide, apparently assume that if denied firearms,
potential suicides will decide to live rather than turning to
thenumerousalternativesuicidemechanisms.Theevidence,
however, indicates that denying one particular means to
people who are motivated to commit suicide by social, eco
nomic, cultural, or other circumstances simply pushes them
tosomeothermeans.44Thus,itisnotjustthemurderratein
gunless Russia that is four times higher than the American
rate;theRussiansuiciderateisalsoaboutfourtimeshigher
thantheAmericanrate.45
tothedeathbeingbygunratherthanbyhanging,poison,orsomeothermeans.Id.;
seealsoinfraPartIII.
43.WORLDHEALTHORGANIZATION,SMALLARMSANDGLOBALHEALTH11(2001)
(emphasis added). This irrelevancy is endlessly repeated. See, e.g., Wendy Cukier,
SmallArmsandLightWeapons:APublicHealthApproach,9BROWNJ.WORLDAFF.261,
266, 267 (2002) (Research has shown that rates of small arms death and injury are
linked to small arms accessibility....In industrialized countries, studies have
shownthataccessibilityisrelatedtofirearmdeathrates....Otherapproacheshave
examined the rates of death from firearms across regions, cities, high income coun
tries, and respondents to victimization surveys. (emphasis added) (internal cita
tions omitted); see also Neil Arya, Confronting the Small Arms Pandemic 324 BRITISH
MED. J.990(2002);E.G.Krugetal.,FirearmRelatedDeathsintheUnitedStatesand35
OtherHighandUpperMiddleIncomeCountries,27INTLJ.EPIDEMIOLOGY214(1988).
44.See JACOBS, supra note 11, at 120 ([I]f the Brady Law did have the effect of
modestly reducing firearms suicides...this effect was completely offset by an in
creaseofthesamemagnitudeinnonfirearmsuicideresultinginthesamenumber
ofdeaths);seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at26592(summarizingandreviewingstud
iesregardinggunsandsuicide).Indeed,thoughwithoutnotingthesignificance,the
WHOreportstatesthatoutofsampleof52countries,firearmsaccountedforonly
onefifthofallsuicides,justaheadofpoisoning....[Self]strangulation,[i.e.hang
ing] was the most frequently used method of suicide. WORLD HEALTH
ORGANIZATION,supranote43,at3.
45.In1999,thelatestyearforwhichwehaveRussiandata,theAmericansuicide
ratewas10.7per100,000people,whiletheRussiansuicideratewasalmost41per
100,000 people. William Alex Pridemore & Andrew L. Spivak, Patterns of Suicide
Mortality in Russia, 33 SUICIDE & LIFETHREATENING BEHAVIOR 132, 133 (2003);
DonnaL.Hoyertetal.,Deaths:FinalDatafor1999,NATL VITAL STAT. REP., Sept.21,
2001,at6.
663
There is no social benefit in decreasing the availability of

gunsiftheresultisonlytoincreasetheuseofothermeansof
suicide and murder, resulting in more or less the same
amount of death. Elementary as this point is, proponents of
themoregunsequalmoredeathmantraseemoblivioustoit.
Onestudy assertsthatAmericansaremore likelytobeshot
to death than people in the worlds other 35 wealthier na
tions.46 While this is literally true, it is irrelevantexcept,
perhapstopeopleterrifiednotofdeathpersebutjustdeath
by gunshot. A fact that should be of greater concernbut
which the study fails to mentionis that per capita murder
overallisonlyhalfasfrequentintheUnitedStatesasinsev
eralothernationswheregunmurderisrarer,butmurderby
strangling,stabbing,orbeatingismuchmorefrequent.47
Of course, it may be speculated that murder rates around
theworldwouldbehigherifgunsweremoreavailable.But
thereissimplynoevidencetosupportthis.Likeanyspecu
lation, it is not subject to conclusive disproof; but the Euro
peandatainTable1andthestudiesacross36and21nations
already discussed show no correlation of high gun owner
ship nations and greater murder per capita or lower gun
ownershipnationsandlessmurderpercapita.48
To reiterate, the determinants of murder and suicide are
basic social, economic, and cultural factors, not the preva
lenceofsomeformofdeadlymechanism.Inthisconnection,
recallthattheAmericanjurisdictionswhichhavethehighest
violent crime rates are precisely those with the most strin
gent gun controls.49 This correlation does not necessarily
46.SeeKrugetal.,supranote42,at21819.
47.Id.at216.Twoofthosenations,BrazilandEstonia,hadmorethantwicethe
overall murder rates of the United States. David C. Stolinsky, America: The Most
ViolentNation?,5MED.SENTINEL199,200(2000).Readersmayquestionthevalueof
comparingtheUnitedStatestothoseparticularnations;however,thiscomparison
wasfirstsuggestedbyKrug.Krugetal.,supranote43,at215(usingthirtysixcoun
tries,havingamongthehighestGNPpercapitaaslistedintheWorldBanks1994
WorldDevelopmentReport).Allwehavedoneisprovidefullmurderrateinforma
tionforthesecomparisons.
48.KLECK,supranote8,at254;Killiasetal.,supranote41,at430.
49.Seeinfranotes12830andaccompanyingtext.Foratleastthirtyyears,gunad
vocates have echoed in more or less identical terms the observation that twenty
percentofAmericanhomicideisconcentratedinfourcitieswiththenationsmost
restrictivegunlaws.SeeFirearmsLegislation:HearingBeforetheSubcomm.onCrimeof
the H. Comm. on the Judiciary, 94th Cong. 2394 (1975) (statement of Neal Knox). In
October 2000, the head of a gun advocacy group ridiculed a Handgun Control
664
[Vol.30
prove gun advocates assertion that gun controls actually

encourage crime by depriving victims of the means of self
defense.Theexplanationofthis correlation may be political
ratherthancriminological:jurisdictionsafflictedwithviolent
crime tend to severely restrict gun ownership. This, how
ever, does not suppress the crime, for banning guns cannot
alleviatethesocioculturalandeconomicfactorsthatarethe
realdeterminantsofviolenceandcrimerates.50
Table2:MurderRatesofEuropeanNationsthatBan
HandgunsasComparedtoTheirNeighborsthatAllowHandguns
(ratesareper100,000persons)
Nation
HandgunPolicy
A.Belarus
banned
MurderRate
Year
10.40
late1990s
[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]
Poland
Russia
allowed
banned
1.98
20.54
2003
2002
B.Luxembourg
banned
9.01
2002
Belgium
France
Germany
allowed
allowed
allowed
1.70
1.65
0.93
late1990s
2003
2003
C.Russia
banned
20.54
2002
Finland
Norway
allowed
allowed
1.98
0.81
2004
2001
Notes: This table covers all the European nations for which the infor
mation given is available. As in Table 1, the homicide rate data comes
from an annually published report, CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE
STATISTICS,HOMICIDEINCANADA,JURISTAT.
Once again, we are not arguing that the data in Table 2

shows that gun control causes nations to have much higher
scorecardforitsmisleadingattemptstoinverselycorrelateviolentcrimeratesto
theextentofthevariousstatesguncontrols.Hepointsoutthat,infact,the states
withthemostrestrictivegunlawsconsistentlyhavehighermurderratesthanstates
withlessrestrictivelaws,whilethosewiththeleastcontrolshadthelowesthomi
cide rates. Larry Pratt, HCI Scorecard (2000), http://gunowners.org/op0042.htm; see
alsoinfranote131.
50.Itisnoteworthythatthecorrelationbetweenmoreguncontrolandmorecrime
seemstoholdtrueinothernations,thoughmuchlessstrikinglythanintheUnited
States.SeeMiron,supranote30,at628.
665
murder rates than neighboring nations that permit handgun

ownership. Rather, we assert a political causation for the ob
servedcorrelationthatnationswithstringentguncontrolstend
to have much higher murder rates than nations that allow
guns. The political causation is that nations which have vio
lenceproblemstendtoadoptsevereguncontrols,butthesedo
not reduce violence, which is determined by basic socio
culturalandeconomicfactors.
The point is exemplified by the conclusions of the premier
study of English gun control. Done by a senior English police
official as his thesis at the Cambridge University Institute of
Criminologyandlaterpublishedasabook,itfound(asofthe
early 1970s), Half a century of strict controls...has ended,
perversely, withafargreateruseof[handguns]incrimethan
everbefore.51Thestudyalsostatesthat:
Nomatterhowoneapproachesthefigures,oneisforcedto
the rather startling conclusion that the use of firearms in
crime was very much less [in England before 1920] when
there were no controls of any sort and when anyone, con
victed criminal or lunatic, could buy any type of firearm
withoutrestriction.52
Ofcoursethepointofthisanalysisisnotthatthelawshould
allowlunaticsandcriminalstoownguns.Thepointisthatvio
lence will be rare when the basic sociocultural and economic
determinants so dictate; and conversely, crime will rise in re
sponse to changes in those determinantswithout much re
gard to the mere availability of some particular weaponry or
theseverityoflawsagainstit.
III.
DOORDINARYPEOPLEMURDER?
The more guns equal more death mantra seems plausible

onlywhenviewedthroughtherubricthatmurdersmostlyin
volve ordinary people who kill because they have access to a
firearm when they get angry. If this were true, murder might
well increase where people have ready access to firearms, but
the available data provides no such correlation. Nations and
51.COLIN GREENWOOD, FIREARMS CONTROL: A STUDY OF ARMED CRIME AND

FIREARMSCONTROLINENGLANDANDWALES243(1972).
52.Id.
666
[Vol.30
areas with more guns per capita do not have higher murder
ratesthanthosewithfewergunspercapita.53
Nevertheless, critics of gun ownership often argue that a
gunintheclosettoprotectagainstburglarswillmostlikelybe
usedtoshootaspouseinamomentofrage....Theproblemis
youandmelawabidingfolks;54thatbanninghandgunposses
siononlyforthosewithcriminalrecordswillfailtoprotectus
fromthemostlikelysourceofhandgunmurder:ordinaryciti
zens;55 that most gunrelated homicides...are the result of
impulsive actions taken by individuals who have little or no
criminal background or who are known to the victims;56 that
themajorityoffirearmhomicide[soccur]...notastheresult
ofcriminalactivity,butbecauseofargumentsbetweenpeople
whoknoweachother;57thateachyeartherearethousandsof
gun murders by lawabiding citizens who might have stayed
lawabidingiftheyhadnotpossessedfirearms.58
Thesecommentsappeartorestonnoevidenceandactuallycon
tradictfactsthathavesouniformlybeenestablishedbyhomicide
studiesdatingbacktothe1890sthattheyhavebecomecrimino
logical axioms.59 Insofar as studies focus on perpetrators, they
showthatneitheramajority,normany,norvirtuallyanymurder
ers are ordinary lawabiding citizens.60 Rather, almost all mur
derers are extremely aberrant individuals with life histories of
violence,psychopathology,substanceabuse,andotherdangerous
behaviors. The vast majority of persons involved in life
threateningviolencehavealongcriminalrecordwithmanyprior
contactswiththejusticesystem.61Thushomicide[whether]ofa
53.SeesupraTables12andnotes1015;seeinfraTable3andnotes125127.
54.DavidKairys,ACarnageintheNameofFreedom,PHILADELPHIAINQUIRER,Sept.
12,1988,atA15(emphasisadded),quotedinFrankJ.Vandall,APreliminaryConsid
erationofIssuesRaisedintheFirearmsSellersImmunityBill,38AKRONL.REV.113,118
n.28(2005).
55.NicholasDixon,WhyWeShouldBanHandgunsintheUnitedStates,12ST.LOUIS
U.PUB.L.REV.243,26566(1993)(emphasisadded),quotedinVandall,supranote54,
at119,n.32.
56.ROBERT J. SPITZER, THE POLITICSOF GUN CONTROL147(3rded.1995)(empha
sisadded).
57.Violence Policy Center, Who Dies? A Look at Firearms Death and Injury in
America,http://www.vpc.org/studies/whointro.htm(lastvisitedNov.17,2006).
58.NatlCoalitiontoBanHandguns,supranote21(emphasisadded).
59.SeeDavidM. Kennedy&AnthonyJ.Braga,Homicide inMinneapolis:Research
forProblemSolving,2HOMICIDESTUD.263,267(1998).
60.SeeElliott,supranote37,at1093.
61.Id.
667
strangeror[of]someoneknowntotheoffenderisusuallypartof
apatternofviolence,engagedinbypeoplewhoareknown...as
violenceprone.62Thoughonly15%ofAmericansovertheageof
15 have arrest records,63 approximately 90 percent of adult mur
derers have adult records, with an average adult criminal career
[involvingcrimescommittedasanadultratherthanachild]ofsix
or more years, including four major adult felony arrests.64 These
national statistics dovetail with data from local nineteenth and
twentiethcenturystudies.Forexample:victimsaswellasoffenders
[in1950sand1960sPhiladelphiamurders]...tendedtobepeople
with prior police records, usually for violent crimes such as as
sault.65 The great majority of both perpetrators and victims of
[1970sHarlem]assaultsandmurdershadprevious[adult]arrests,
probablyover80%ormore.66Bostonpoliceandprobationofficers
in the 1990s agreed that of those juvenileperpetrated murders
where all the facts were known, virtually all were committed by
gang members, though the killing was not necessarily gang
directed. 67Oneexamplewouldbeagangmemberwhostabshis
girlfriendtodeathinafitofanger.68Regardlessoftheirarrestsfor
othercrimes,80%of1997Atlantamurderarresteeshadatleastone
earlier drug offense with 70% having 3 or more prior drug of
fenses.69ANewYorkTimesstudyofthe1,662murderscommittedin
thatcityintheyears20032005foundthat[m]orethan90percent
ofthekillershadcriminalrecords.70Baltimorepolicefiguresshow
that92percentofmurdersuspectshad[prior]criminalrecordsin
2006.71Severalofthemorerecenthomicidestudiesjustreviewed
62.GERALDD.ROBIN,VIOLENTCRIMEANDGUNCONTROL48(1991)(quotingGary
Kleck, The Assumptions of Gun Control, in FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE 23, 43 (Don B.
Katesed.,1984)).
63.MarkCooney,TheDeclineofEliteHomicide,35CRIMINOLOGY381,386(1997).
64.GARY KLECK & DON B. KATES, ARMED: NEW PERSPECTIVESON GUN CONTROL
20(2001).
65.ROGERLANE,MURDERINAMERICA:AHISTORY259(1997).
66.A.SWERSKEY&E.ENLOE,HOMICIDEINHARLEM17(1975).
67.AnthonyA.Bragaetal.,YouthHomicideinBoston:AnAssessmentofSupplemen
taryHomicideReportData,3HOMICIDESTUDIES277,28384(1999).
68.Seeid.
69.Dean G. Rojek, The Homicide and Drug Connection, in THE VARIETIES OF
HOMICIDEANDITSRESEARCH:PROCEEDINGSOFTHE1999MEETINGOFTHEHOMICIDE
RESEARCH WORKING GROUP 128 (P.H. Blackman et al. eds., 2000) [hereinafter THE
VARIETIESOFHOMICIDE].
70.Jo Craven McGinty, New York Killers, and Those Killed, by the Numbers, N.Y.
TIMES,April28,2006,atA1.
71.Gus G. Sentementes, Patterns Persist in City Killings, BALTIMORE SUN, Jan. 1,
2007,atA1.
668
[Vol.30
weredoneattheKennedySchoolofGovernmentatHarvardand
foundalmostallarrestedmurdererstohaveearlierarrests.72
That murderers are not ordinary, lawabiding responsible
adults is further documented in other sources. Psychological
studiesofjuvenilemurderersvariouslyfindthatatleast80%,if
notall,arepsychoticorhavepsychoticsymptoms.73 OfMassa
chusettsdomesticmurderersintheyears19911995,73.7%had
aprior[adult]criminalhistory,16.5%hadanactiverestrain
ing order registered against them at the time of the homicide,
and46.3%oftheviolentperpetratorshadhadarestrainingor
dertakenoutagainstthemsometimebeforetheircrime.74
This last study is one of many exposing the false argument
that a significant number of murders involve ordinary people
killingspousesinamomentofrage.Althoughtherearemany
domestic homicides, such murders do not occur frequently in
ordinaryfamilies,norarethemurderersordinary,lawabiding
adults.Thedaytodayrealityisthatmostfamilymurdersare
prefaced by a long history of assaults.75 One study of such
murders found that a history of domestic violence was pre
sentin95.8%ofcases.76Thesefindingsarearoutinefeatureof
domestic homicide studies: [domestic] partner homicide is
most often the final outcome of chronic women battering;77
basedonastudyfromKansasCity,90%ofallthefamilyhomi
72.Anthony A. Braga et al., Understanding and Preventing Gang Violence: Problem

Analysis and Response Development in Lowell, Massachusetts, 9 POLICE Q. 20, 2931
(2006)(Some95%ofhomicideoffenders,82%ofaggravatedassaultoffenders,65%
ofhomicidevictims,and45%ofaggravatedgunassaultvictimswerearraignedat
least once in Massachusetts courts before they committed their crime or were vic
timized.Individualsthatwerepreviouslyknowntothecriminaljusticesystemwere
involved in a wide variety of offenses and, on average, committed many prior
crimes....Onaverage,aggravatedgunassaultoffendershadbeenarraignedfor12
prioroffenses,homicideoffendershadbeenarraignedfor9prioroffenses....).
73.Wade C. Myers & Kerrilyn Scott, Psychotic and Conduct Disorder Symptoms in
JuvenileMurderers,2HOMICIDESTUD.160,16162(1998).
74.LindaLangfordetal.,CriminalandRestrainingOrderHistoriesofIntimatePart
nerRelated Homicide Offenders in Massachusetts, 19911995, in THE VARIETIES OF
HOMICIDE,supranote69,at51,55,59.
75.Murray A. Straus, Domestic Violence and Homicide Antecedents, 62 BULL. N.Y.
ACAD. MED. 446, 454 (1986); seealso MurrayA.Straus,MedicalCareCostsofIntrafam
ilyAssaultandHomicide,62BULL.N.Y.ACAD.MED.556,557(1986).
76.PaigeHallSmithetal.,PartnerHomicideinContext,2HOMICIDE STUD.400,410
(1998)(reportingcasesonlywheretherewassufficientbackgroundinformationon
theparties).
77.Id.at411.
669
cideswereprecededbypreviousdisturbancesatthesamead
dress,withamedianof5callsperaddress.78
The only kind of evidence cited to support the myth that
most murderers are ordinary people is that many murders
arisefromargumentsoroccurinhomesandbetweenacquaint
ances.79 These bare facts are only relevant if one assumes that
criminals do not have acquaintances or homes or arguments.
Of the many studies belying this, the broadest analyzed a
years national data on gun murders occurring in homes and
between acquaintances. It found the most common victim
offender relationship was where both parties ...knew one
anotherbecauseofpriorillegaltransactions.80
Thusthetermacquaintancehomicidedoesnotrefersolely
to murders between ordinary acquaintances. Rather it encom
passes,forexample:drugdealerskilledbycompetitorsorcus
tomers,gangmemberskilledbymembersofthesameorrival
gangs,andwomenkilledbystalkersorabuserswhohavebru
talizedthemonearlieroccasions,allindividualsforwhomfed
eralandstatelawsalreadyprohibitgunpossession.81
Obviously there are certain people who should not be al
lowedtoownanydeadlyinstrument.Reasonableassuchpro
hibitionsare,itisunrealistictothinkthosepeoplewillcomply
withsuchrestrictionsanymorereadilythantheydowithlaws
against violent crime.82 In any event, studies analyzing ac
78.ROBIN, supra note 62, at 4748; see also Kathryn E. Moracco et al., Femicide in
NorthCarolina,19911993,2HOMICIDESTUD.422,441(1998).
79.See, e.g., SPITZER, supra note 56; Jeremiah A. Barondess, Letter to the Editor,
FirearmViolenceandPublicHealth,272J. AM. MED. ASSN1406,1409(1994)(respond
ingtocriticismofhisarticle,KarlP.Adleretal.,FirearmViolenceandPublicHealth:
Limiting the Availability of Guns, 271 J. AM. MED. ASSN 1281 (1994)); Kairys, supra
note54.
80.KLECK,supranote8,at236(analyzingtheU.S.BureauofJusticeStatisticsdata
onmurderdefendantsbeingprosecutedin33U.S.urbancounties).
81.Current federal law prohibits gun possession by minors, drug addicts, and
personswhohavebeeninvoluntarilycommittedtomentalinstitutionsorconvicted
offeloniesordomesticviolencemisdemeanors.18U.S.C.922(g)(2000).Astostate
gunlaws,see,forexample,CAL. PENAL CODE12021,12072,12101,12551(Deer
ing2006).Forasummaryofthegeneralpatternsoffederalandstategunlaws,see
JACOBS,supranote11,at1935.
82.SeeWRIGHTETAL.,supranote11,at13738([T]hereisnogoodreasontosup
pose thatpeopleintentonarmingthemselvesforcriminal purposes wouldnotbe
abletodosoevenifthegeneralavailabilityoffirearmstothelargerpopulationwere
sharplyrestricted.HereitmaybeappropriatetorecalltheFirstLawofEconomics,a
lawwhoseoperationhasbeensharplyinevidenceinthecaseofProhibition,mari
juanaandotherdrugs,prostitution,pornography,andahostofotherbannedarti
670
[Vol.30
quaintance homicide suggest there is no reason for laws pro

hibiting gun possession by ordinary, lawabiding responsible
adults because such people virtually never murder. If one ac
ceptsthatsuchadults arefarmorelikelytobevictimsofvio
lentcrimethantocommitit,disarmingthembecomesnotjust
unproductivebutcounterproductive.83
IV.
MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME?
Antigun activists are not alone in their belief that widespread

firearm ownership substantially affects violent crime rates. The
sameunderstandingalsocharacterizesmanyprogunactivists.Of
course,progunactivistsbeliefleadsthemtotheoppositeconclu
sion: that widespread firearm ownership reduces violence by de
terring criminals from confrontation crimes and making more
attractive such nonconfrontation crimes as theft from unoccupied
commercialorresidentialpremises.Superficially,theevidencefor
thisbeliefseemspersuasive.Table1,forinstance,showsthatDen
mark has roughly half the gun ownership rate of Norway, but a
50%highermurderrate,whileRussiahasonlyoneninthNorways
clesandsubstancesnamely,thatdemandcreatesitsownsupply.Thereisnoevi
denceanywheretoshowthatreducingtheavailabilityoffirearmsingenerallikewise
reducestheiravailabilitytopersonswithcriminalintent,orthatpersonswithcrimi
nalintentwouldnotbeabletoarmthemselvesunderanysetofgeneralrestrictions
onfirearms.).
83.ThisArticlewillnotdiscussthedefensiveuseoffirearmsbeyondmakingthe
followingobservations:whilethereisagreatdealofcontroversyaboutthesubject,
it is a misleading controversy in which antigun advocates deep ethical or moral
objectionstocivilianselfdefensearepresentedintheguiseofempiricalargument.
Theempiricalevidenceunquestionablyestablishesthatgunownershipbyprospec
tive victims not only allows them to resist criminal attack, but also deters violent
criminals from attacking them in the first place. See JOSEPH F. SHELEY & JAMES D.
WRIGHT,INTHE LINEOFFIRE:YOUTHS,GUNS,ANDVIOLENCEINURBANAMERICA63
(1995), and JAMES D. WRIGHT & PETER H. ROSSI, ARMED AND CONSIDERED
DANGEROUS: A SURVEYOF FELONSAND THEIR FIREARMS 154 (1986) foradiscussion
ofDept.ofJusticefundedsurveysofincarceratedadultandjuvenilefelons.Seealso
LOTT,THE BIAS AGAINST GUNS,supranote30,at811,22740;DavidB.Kopel,Law
yers, Guns, and Burglars, 43 ARIZ. L. REV. 345 (2001); Lawrence Southwick, Jr., Self
DefensewithGuns:TheConsequences,28J.CRIM.JUST.351(2000).
The legitimate question is not whether victim gun possession allows for self
defenseanddeterscriminalviolence,buthowextensiveandimportantthesebene
fitsare.SeeKLECK & KATES,supranote64,at213342;LOTT, supranote11;PhilipJ.
Cook&JensLudwig,DefensiveGunUses:NewEvidencefromaNationalSurvey,14J.
QUANTITATIVE CRIMINOLOGY 111 (1998); Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, Guns in
America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms, Natl Inst. Just.:
Research in Brief (U.S. Dept of Justice, Washington, D.C., 1997); Marvin E. Wolf
gang,ATributetoaViewIHaveOpposed,86J.CRIM.L.&CRIMINOLOGY188(1995).
671
gun ownership rate but a murder rate 2500% higher. Looking at

Tables13,itiseasytofindnationsinwhichveryhighgunowner
shipratescorrelatewithverylowmurderrates,whileothernations
with very low gun ownership rates have much higher murder
rates. Moreover, there is not insubstantial evidence that in the
UnitedStateswidespreadgunavailabilityhashelpedreducemur
derandotherviolentcrimerates.Oncloseranalysis,however,this
evidenceappearsuniquelyapplicabletotheUnitedStates.
More than 100 million handguns are owned in the United
States84 primarily for selfdefense,85 and 3.5 million people have
permits to carry concealed handguns for protection.86 Recent
analysisrevealsagreatdealofselfdefensiveuseoffirearmsin
theUnitedStates,infact,moredefensivegunuses[byvictims]
thancrimescommittedwithfirearms.87Itislittlewonderthatthe
National Institute of Justice surveys among prison inmates
findthatlargepercentagesreportthattheirfearthatavictim
might be armed deterred them from confrontation crimes.
[T]he felons most frightened about confronting an armed
victim were those from states with the greatest relative
number of privately owned firearms. Conversely, robbery
ishighestinstatesthatmostrestrictgunownership.88
Concomitantly,aseriesofstudiesbyJohnLottandhiscoauthor
DavidMustardconcludethattheissuanceofmillionsofpermits
tocarryconcealedhandgunsisassociatedwithdrasticdeclinesin
Americanhomiciderates.89
Ironically,todetailtheAmericanevidenceforwidespreadde
fensivegunownershipsdeterrentvalueisalsotoraisequestions
about how applicable that evidence would be even to the other
nations that have widespread gun ownership but low violence.
TherearenodataforforeignnationscomparabletotheAmerican
datajustdiscussed.Withoutsuchdata,wecannotknowwhether
millionsofNorwegiansownhandgunsandcarrythemforprotec
84.Kates,supranote29,at63.
85.KLECK,supranote8,at74(collectingsurveyresponses).
86.Kates,supranote29,at64.
87.JACOBS,supranote11,at14(collectingstudies).
88.Kates,supranote29,at70(collectingstudies).
89.LOTT, supra note 11; John R. Lott & David B. Mustard, Crime, Deterrence, and
RighttoCarry, 26 J. LEGAL STUD. 1 (1997); David B. Mustard, Culture Affects Our
BeliefsAboutFirearms,ButDataareAlsoImportant,151U. PENN. L. REV.1387(2003).
Thesestudiesarehighlycontroversial.SeeKates,supranote29,at7071,fordiscus
sionofcriticsandcriticisms.
672
[Vol.30
tion, thereby deterring Norwegian criminals from committing

violent crimes. Nor can we know whether guns are commonly
kept for defense in German homes and stores, thus preventing
Germancriminalsfromrobbingthem.
Moreover,ifthedeterrenteffectofgunownershipaccountsfor
lowviolenceratesinhighgunownershipnationsotherthanthe
United States, one wonders why that deterrent effect would be
amplifiedthere.EvenwiththedropinUnitedStatesmurderrates
that Lott and Mustard attribute to the massive increase in gun
carry licensing, the United States murder rate is still eight times
higherthanNorwayseventhoughtheU.S.hasanalmost300%
higher rate of gun ownership. That is consistent with the points
madeabove.Murderratesaredeterminedbysocioeconomicand
culturalfactors.IntheUnitedStates,thosefactorsincludethatthe
number of civilianowned guns nearly equals the population
triple the ownership rate in even the highest European gun
ownership nationsand that vast numbers of guns are kept for
personaldefense.Thatisnotafactorinothernationswithcom
paratively high firearm ownership. High gun ownership may
well be a factor in the recent drastic decline in American homi
cide.Butevenso,Americanhomicideisdrivenbysocioeconomic
and cultural factors that keep it far higher than the comparable
rateofhomicideinmostEuropeannations.
Insum,thoughmanynationswithwidespreadgunownership
have much lower murder rates than nations that severely restrict
gunownership,itwouldbesimplistictoassumethatatalltimes
andinallplaceswidespreadgunownershipdepressesviolenceby
deterring many criminals into nonconfrontation crime. There is
evidencethatitdoessointheUnitedStates,wheredefensivegun
ownership is a substantial sociocultural phenomenon. But the
more plausible explanation for many nations having widespread
gun ownership with low violence is that thesenations never had
highmurderandviolenceratesandsoneverhadoccasiontoenact
severeantigunlaws.Ontheotherhand,innationsthathaveex
perienced high and rising violent crime rates, the legislative reac
tionhasgenerallybeentoenactincreasinglysevereantigunlaws.
Thisisfutile,forreducinggunownershipbythelawabidingciti
zenrythe only ones who obey gun lawsdoes not reduce vio
lenceormurder.Theresultisthathighcrimenationsthatbanguns
toreducecrimeenduphavingbothhighcrimeandstringentgun
laws, while it appears that low crime nations that do not signifi
cantlyrestrictgunscontinuetohavelowviolencerates.
673
Thus both sides of the gun prohibition debate are likely

wronginviewingtheavailabilityofgunsasamajorfactorin
the incidence of murder in any particular society. Though
manypeoplemaystillclingtothatbelief,thehistorical,geo
graphic, and demographic evidence explored in this Article
provides a clear admonishment. Whether gun availability is
viewed as a cause or as a mere coincidence, the long term
macrocosmic evidence is that gun ownership spread widely
throughout societies consistently correlates with stable or
decliningmurderrates.Whethercausativeornot,theconsis
tent international pattern is that more guns equal less mur
der and other violent crime. Even if one is inclined to think
thatgunavailabilityis animportantfactor,theavailablein
ternational data cannot be squared with the mantra that
more guns equal more death and fewer guns equal less
death. Rather, if firearms availability does matter, the data
consistently show that the way it matters is that more guns
equallessviolentcrime.
V.
GEOGRAPHIC,HISTORICALAND
DEMOGRAPHICPATTERNS
If more guns equal more death and fewer guns equal less
death, it should follow, all things being equal, (1) that geo
graphicareaswithhighergunownershipshouldhavemore
murder than those with less gun ownership; (2) that demo
graphic groups with higher gun ownership should be more
pronetomurderthanthosewithlessownership;and(3)that
historicalerasinwhichgunownershipiswidespreadshould
have more murder than those in which guns were fewer or
less widespread. As discussed earlier, these effects are not
present. Historical eras, demographic groups, and geo
graphic areas with more guns do not have more murders
than those with fewer guns. Indeed, those with more guns
often,orevengenerally,havefewermurders.
Of course, all other things may not be equal. Obviously,
many factors other than guns may promote or reduce the
numberofmurdersinanygivenplaceortimeoramongpar
ticular groups. And it may be impossible even to identify
thesefactors,muchlesstotakeaccountofthemall.Thusany
conclusionsdrawnfromthekindsofevidencepresentedear
lierinthispapermustnecessarilybetentative.
674
[Vol.30
Acknowledgingthisdoesnot,however,blunttheforceof
two crucial points. The first regards the burden of proof.
Thosewhoassertthemantra,andurgethatpublicpolicybe
based on it, bear the burden of proving that more guns do
equalmoredeathandfewergunsequallessdeath.Butthey
cannot bear that burden because there simply is no large
number of cases in which the widespread prevalence of
guns among the general population has led to more mur
der. By the same token, but even more importantly, it can
notbeshownconsistentlythatareductioninthenumberof
guns available to the general population has led to fewer
deaths.Noristheburdenbornebyspeculatingthattherea
son such cases do not appear is that other factors always
intervene.
The second issue, allied to the burden of proof, regards
plausibility.Ontheirface,thefollowingfactsfromTables1
and2suggestthatgunownershipisirrelevant,orhaslittle
relevance, to murder: France and neighboring Germany
haveexactlythesame,comparativelyhighrateofgunown
ership, yet the French murder rate is nearly twice the Ger
man; France has infinitely more gun ownership than
Luxembourg, which nevertheless has a murder rate five
times greater, though handguns are illegal and other types
ofgunssparse;Germanyhasalmostdoublethegunowner
ship rate of neighboring Austria yet a similarly very low
murder rate; the Norwegian gun ownership rate is over
twice the Austrian rate, yet the murder rates are almost
identical.
AndthenthereisTable3,whichshowsSlovenia,with66%
moregunownershipthanSlovakia,neverthelesshasroughly
onethird less murder per capita; Hungary has more than 6
timesthegunownershiprateofneighboringRomaniabuta
lowermurderrate;theCzechRepublicsgunownershiprate
ismorethan3timesthatofneighboringPoland,butitsmur
derrateislower;PolandandneighboringSloveniahaveex
actly the same murder rate, though Slovenia has over triple
thegunownershippercapita.
675
Table3:EasternEuropeGunOwnershipandMurderRates
(ratesgivenareper100,000peopleandindescendingorder)
Nation
Russia
Moldova
Slovakia
Romania
Macedonia
Hungary
Finland
Poland
Slovenia
Cz.Republic
Greece
MurderRate
20.54*[2002]
8.13**[2000]
2.65**[2000]
2.50**[2000]
2.31**[2000]
2.22[2003]
1.98[2004]
1.79[2003]
1.81**[2000]
1.69**[2000]
1.12[2003]
RateofGunOwnership
4,000
1,000
3,000
300
16,000
2,000
39,000
1,500
5,000
5,000
11,000
Notes:ThistablecoversalltheEasternEuropeannationsforwhichwehavedata
regardingbothgunownershipandmurderrates.Gunownershipdatacomesfrom
GRADUATEINSTITUTEOFINTERNATIONALSTUDIES,SMALLARMSSURVEY(2003).
*CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2002,
JURISTATat3.
**UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime,TheSeventhUnitedNationsSurvey
onCrimeTrendsandtheOperationsofCriminalJusticeSystems(19982000),Mar.31,
2004,at82,260,287,370,405,398.
CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2003,

JURISTATat3.
CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2004,

JURISTATat3.
Ontheirface,Tables1,2,and3andthecomparisonsgleaned
fromthemsuggestthatgunownershipisirrelevant,orhaslittle
relevance, to murder. Historical and demographic comparisons
offerfurtherevidence.Again,allthedatamaybemisleading.Itis
conceivablethatmoregunsdoequalmoremurder,butthatthis
causation does not appear because some unidentifiable extrane
ous factor always intervenes. That is conceivable, but ultimately
unlikely.AsHansToch,aseniorAmericancriminologistwho35
years ago endorsed handgun prohibition and confiscation, but
thenrecantedbasedonlaterresearch,arguesitishardtoexplain
thatwherefirearmsaremostdense,violentcrimeratesarelowest
andwheregunsareleastdense,violentcrimeratesarehighest.90
90.Toch & Lizotte, supra note 11, at 232. Professor Toch was a consultant to the
1960sEisenhowerCommission,anduntilthe1990sheendorseditsconclusionsthat
676
A.
[Vol.30
DemographicPatterns
Contrarytowhatshouldbethecaseifmoregunsequalmore
death, there are no consistent indications of a link between
gunownershipandcriminalorviolentbehaviorbyowners;in
fact, gun ownership is higher among whites than among
blacks, higher among middleaged people than among young
people,higheramongmarriedthanamongunmarriedpeople,
higheramongricherpeoplethanpoorallpatternsthatare
the reverse of the way in which criminal behavior is distrib
uted.91
These conclusions are reinforced by focusing on patterns of
AfricanAmerican homicide. Per capita, AfricanAmerican
murder rates are much higher than the murder rate for
whites.92Ifmoregunsequalmoredeath,andfewergunsequal
less, one might assume gun ownership is higher among Afri
canAmericans than among whites, but in fact African
American gun ownership is markedly lower than white gun
ownership.93
widespread handgun ownership causes violence and that reducing ownership

wouldreduceviolence.FranklinZimring,oneofthearchitectsofthoseconclusions,
hasadmittedthattheyweremadespeculativelyandessentiallywithoutanempiri
calbasis.FRANKLINE.ZIMRING &GORDONHAWKINS,THECITIZENS GUIDETO GUN
CONTROL xixii (1987) (In the 1960s after the assassinations of President John F.
Kennedy,Dr.MartinLutherKing,Jr.,andSenatorRobertF.Kennedy,it[guncon
trol] became a major subject of public passion and controversy...[sparking a de
bate that] has been heated, acrimonious and polarized....It began in a factual
vacuum[inwhich]...neithersidefeltanygreatneedforfactualsupporttobuttress
foregoneconclusions.Inthe1960s,therewasliterallynoscholarshipontherelationship
betweengunsandviolenceandtheincidenceorconsequencesofinterpersonalviolence,and
noworkinprogress.(emphasisadded)).
Asforthefindingsofthesubsequentbodyofresearch,ProfessorTochhaswrit
ten:
[W]henusedforprotectionfirearmscanseriouslyinhibitaggressionand
canprovideapsychologicalbufferagainstthefearofcrime.Furthermore,
the fact that national patterns show little violent crime where guns are
mostdenseimpliesthatgunsdonotelicitaggressioninanymeaningful
way....Quitethecontrary,thesefindingssuggestthathighsaturations
of guns in places, or something correlated with that condition, inhibit
illegalaggression.
Id.at234&n.10.
92.SeeMALCOLM,supranote10,at23233;AlfredBlumstein,YouthViolence,Guns,
andtheIllicitDrugIndustry,86J.CRIM.L.&CRIMINOLOGY10,21(1995).
93.See LOTT, supra note 11, at 39 ([W]hite gun ownership exceed[ed] that for
blacksbyabout40in1996);seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at71.
677
Particularly corrosive to the mantra are the facts as to rural

AfricanAmericans gun ownership. Per capita, rural African
Americansaremuchmorelikelytoownfirearmsthanareur
ban AfricanAmericans.94 Yet, despite their greater access to
guns, the firearm murder rate of young rural black males is a
smallfractionofthefirearmmurderrateofyoungurbanblack
males.95
Thesefactsareonlyanomalousinrelationtothemantrathat
moregunsequalmoredeathandfewergunsequallessdeath.
In contrast, these facts accord with the earlier point regarding
theaberranceofmurderers.Whatevertheirrace,ordinarypeo
ple simply do not murder. Thus preventing lawabiding, re
sponsible AfricanAmericans from owning guns does nothing
atalltoreducemurderers,becausetheyarenottheoneswho
are doing the killing. The murderers are a small minority of
extremeantisocialaberrantswhomanagetoobtaingunswhatever
thelevelofgunownershipintheAfricanAmericancommunity.
Indeed, murderers generally fall into a group some crimi
nologists have called violent predators, sharply differentiat
ing them not only from the overall population but from other
criminals as well.96 Surveys of imprisoned felons indicate that
when not imprisoned the ordinary felon averages perhaps 12
crimesperyear.97Incontrast,violentpredatorsspendmuch
or most of their time committing crimes, averaging at least 5
assaults, 63 robberies, and 172 burglaries annually.98 A Na
tionalInstituteofJusticesurveyof2,000felonsin10statepris
ons, which focused on gun crime, said of these types of
respondents:
[T]hemenwehavelabeledPredatorswereclearlyomnibus
felons...[committing]moreorlessanycrimetheyhadthe
opportunity to commit....The Predators (handgun and
shotgun combined)...amounted to about 22% of the sam
ple and yet accounted for 51% of the total crime [admitted
bythe2,000felons]....Thus,whenwetalkaboutcontrol
94.SeeLOTT,supranote11,at39;seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at71.
95.The murder rate of young urban African Americans is roughly 600% higher
thanthatoftheirruralcounterparts.SeeLoisA.Fingerhutetal.,FirearmandNonfire
armHomicideAmongPersons15Through19YearsofAge,267J. AM. MED. ASSN 3048,
3049tbl.1.
96.JAN M. CHAIKEN & MARCIA R. CHAIKEN, VARIETIES OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR
6263(1982).
97.Id.at65.
98.Id.at123,125,219tbl.A.19.
678
[Vol.30
lingcrimeintheUnitedStatestoday,wearetalkinglargely
aboutcontrollingthebehaviorofthesemen.99
Thepointisnotjustthatdemographicpatternsofhomicide
and gun ownership in the AfricanAmerican community do
notsupportthemoregunsequalmoredeathmantra.Moreim
portantly, those patterns refute the logic of fewer guns equal
less death. The reason fewer guns among ordinary African
Americansdoesnotleadtofewermurdersisbecausethatpau
citydoesnottranslatetofewergunsfortheaberrantminority
whodomurder.Thecorrelationofveryhighmurderrateswith
low gun ownership in AfricanAmerican communities simply
doesnotbearoutthenotionthatdisarmingthepopulace asa
wholewilldisarmandpreventmurderbypotentialmurderers.
B.
MacrohistoricalEvidence:Fromthe
MiddleAgestothe20thCentury
TheMiddleAgeswereatimeofnotoriouslybrutalanden
demic warfare. They also experienced rates of ordinary mur
der almost double the highest recorded U.S. murder rate.100
But Middle Age homicide cannot be explained in terms of
the availability of firearms, which had not yet been in
vented.101Theinventionprovidessometestofthemantra.If
it istrue thatmoregunsequal more murderand fewerguns
equal less death, murder should have risen with the inven
tion, increased efficiency, and greater availability of firearms
acrossthepopulation.
Yet, using England as an example, murder rates seem to
have fallen sharply as guns became progressively more effi
cientandwidelyownedduringthefivecenturiesafterthein
ventionoffirearms.102Duringmuchofthisperiod,becausethe
entireadultmalepopulationofEnglandwasdeemedtocon
stituteamilitia,everymilitaryagemalewasrequiredtopos
sessarmsforuseinmilitiatrainingandservice.103
99.WRIGHT&ROSSI,supranote83,at76.
100.LANE,supranote65,at14.
101.Id.at151.Seegenerallyid.ch.1.
102.MALCOLM,supranote10,at1920.
103.SeegenerallyJOYCE LEE MALCOLM, TO KEEPAND BEAR ARMS: THE ORIGINSOF
ANANGLOAMERICANRIGHT115(1994);STEPHENP.HALBROOK,THATEVERYMAN
BEARMED:THEEVOLUTIONOFACONSTITUTIONALRIGHT3753(1984);DonB.Kates,
Handgun Prohibition and the Original Meaning of the Second Amendment, 82 MICH. L.
REV.204,21416(1983).
679
The same requirement was true in America during the pe

riodofcolonialandpostcolonialsettlement.Indeed,thebasic
English militia laws were superceded by the colonies even
more specific and demanding legal requirements of universal
gun ownership. Under those laws, virtually all colonists and
every household were required to own guns. Depending on
thecolonyslaws,maleyouthsweredeemedofmilitaryageat
16, 17, or 18, and every military age man, except for the in
sane, infirm, and criminals, had to possess arms. They were
subject to being called for inspection, militia drill, or service,
all of which legally required them to bring and present their
guns.Toarmthosetoopoortoaffordguns,thelawsrequired
that guns be purchased for them and that they make install
mentpaymentstopaybackthecost.104
It bears emphasis that these gun ownership requirements
were not limited to those subject to militia service. Women,
seamen, clergy, and some public officials were automatically
exemptfrommilitiacallup,asweremenovertheuppermili
104.MALCOLM,supranote103,at13841;Kates,supranote102,at21416.Typical
laws (quoted with original spelling and punctuation) appear from the following
sources:ARCHIVES OF MARYLAND77(WilliamHandBrowneed.,Baltimore,Mary
land Historical Society 1883) ([T]hat every house keeper or housekeepers within
thisProvinceshallhavereadycontinuallyuponalloccasionswithinhisherortheir
houseforhimorthemselvesandforeverypersonwithinhisherortheirhouseable
tobeararmesoneServiceablefixedgunneofbastardmuskettboarealongwitha
poundofgunpowder,fourpoundsofpistolormusketshot,matchformatchlocks
and of flints for firelocks); NARRATIVES OF EARLY VIRGINIA 273 (Lyon Gardiner
Tyler ed., photo. reprint 1974) (1907) (requiring that everyone attend church on
Sunday, further providing that all suche as beare armes shall bring their pieces
swordes,poulderandshottewiththemtochurchonpenaltyofafine);RECORDSOF
THE GOVERNOR AND COMPANY OF THE MASSACHUSETTS BAY IN NEW ENGLAND 84
(NathanielB.Shurtleffed.,Boston,WilliamWhite1853)(orderingtownstoprovide
their residents with arms if they could not provide their own for the present, &
after to receive satisfaction for that they disburse when they shall be able);
RECORDS OF THE COLONY OF RHODE ISLAND AND PROVIDENCE PLANTATIONS, IN
NEWENGLAND7980,94(JohnRussellBartletted.,Providence,A.CrawfordGreene
& Brother, 1856) (requiring, respectively: [T]hat every man do come armed unto
themeetinguponeverysixthday,andalsothatmilitiaofficersgotoeveryinhabi
tant[inPortsmouthand]seewhethereveryoneofthemhaspowderandbullets;
andthatnoemanshallgotwomilesfromtheTowneunarmed,eytherwithGunn
orSword;andthatnoneshallcometoanypublicMeetingwithouthisweapon.);
THE CODE OF 1650, BEING A COMPILATION OF THE EARLIEST LAWS AND ORDERS OF
THE GENERAL COURT OF CONNECTICUT72 (Hartford,Silas Andrus1822)(That all
persons that are above the age of sixteene yeares, except magistrates and church
officers, shall beare arms...and every male person within this jurisdiction, above
thesaidage,shallhaveincontinuallreadines,agoodmuskittorothergunn,fittfor
service,andallowedbytheclarkoftheband.).
680
[Vol.30
tary age, which varied from 45 to 60, depending on the col

ony.Buteveryhouseholdwasrequiredtohaveagun,evenif
all its occupants were otherwise exempt from militia service,
to deter criminals and other attackers. Likewise, all respect
ablemenweretheoreticallyrequiredtocarryarmswhenout
andabroad.105
These laws may not have been fully enforced (except in
times of danger) in areas that had been longsettled and
peaceful. Nevertheless, by the eighteenth century, colonial
Americans were the most heavily armed people in the
world.106Yet,farfrommoregunsequalingmoredeath,mur
ders in the New England colonies were rare, and few
murderers in all the colonies involved guns despite their
wideavailability.107
Americaremainedverywellarmedyethomicideremained
quite low for over two hundred years, from the earliest set
tlementsthroughtheentirecolonialperiodandearlyyearsof
theUnitedStates.Homicideinmoresettledareasonlybegan
risingmarkedlyinthetwodecadesbeforetheCivilWar.108By
that time the universal militia was inoperative and the uni
versality of American gun ownership had disappeared as
many people in longsettled peaceful areas did not hunt and
hadnootherneedforafirearm.109
105.For collections of many of the relevant laws, see Clayton E. Cramer, Gun
Control in Colonial New England, (unpublished manuscript, available at
http://www.claytoncramer.com/GunControlColonialNewEngland.PDF)(lastvisited
Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E. Cramer, Gun Control in Colonial New England, Part II
(unpublished manuscript, available at http://www.claytoncramer.com/
GunControlColonialNewEngland2.PDF) (last visited Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E.
Cramer,GunControlintheMiddle&SouthernColonies,(unpublishedmanuscript,
available at http://www.claytoncramer.com/MiddleSouthernColonialGunControl.PDF)
(last visited Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E. Cramer, Militia Statutes,
http://www.claytoncramer.com/primary.html#MilitiaLaws (last visited Nov. 19,
2006).
106.JOHNMORGANDEDERER,WARINAMERICATO1775,at116(1990).
107.LANE,supranote64,at48,5960.
108.Id.at344.
109.Theenthusiasmmoderngunadvocatesexpressfortheancientmilitiafarex
ceeds the enthusiasm felt by the Englishmen and Americans who were actually
subjecttotheobligationsinvolved.Gunswereexpensiveitemsevenforthoseown
ers who were supplied them by the colonies since they were required to pay the
coloniesbackovertime.Andthedutyofmilitiadrillwasaconstantsourceofirrita
tiontomenwhohadlittletimeforleisureandurgentneedtodevotetheirtimeto
makingalivingforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.Bytheturnofthenineteenthcen
tury,attheearliest,theuniversalmilitiawasindesuetudeandreplacedinthe1840s
681
TheCivilWar acquainted vastnumbersofmen withmod

ern rapidfire guns, and, in its aftermath, provided a unique
opportunity to acquire them. Before the Civil War, reliable
multishot rifles or shotguns did not exist and revolvers
(thoughtheyhadbeeninventedinthe1830s)weresoexpen
sivetheywereeffectivelyoutofreachformostoftheAmeri
can populace.110 The Civil War changed all that. Officers on
both sides had to buy their own revolvers, while sidearms
wereissuedtononcommissionedofficersgenerally,aswellas
thoseordinarysoldierswhowereintheartillery,cavalry,and
dragoons.111Thefactthatovertwomillionmenservedinthe
UnionArmyatvarioustimeswhiletheConfederateshadover
half that number suggests the number of revolvers in
volved.112
by colorfully garbed volunteer formations whose activities were more social than
military.
110.RevolverinventorSamuelColtsfirstbusinessfailedin1840.Itreviveditself
only with sales to officers and the military during the MexicanAmerican War
(18461848),andsustaineditselfthroughthe1850swithsalestowealthyAmericans
andEuropeans.SeeJOSEPH G. BILBY,CIVIL WAR FIREARMS157(1996);LEE KENNETT
&JAMESLAVERNEANDERSON,THEGUNINAMERICA90(1975);LANE,supranote65,
at109.Coltssalesflourishedasforeignarmiesadoptedhisrevolverandwidesales
tookplaceinthecommercialmarketacrossEurope,KENNETT & ANDERSON,supra,
at90,especiallyafterColtsprizewinningexhibitatthe1851GreatIndustrialExhi
bition in London. See generally JOSEPH G. ROSA, COLONEL COLT LONDON 1329
(1976).
111.SeegenerallyBILBY,supranote110,at15772.Therevolversinvolvedwereby
no means all Colts: [T]he Federal government also purchased large numbers of
Remington, Starr and Whitney revolvers, as well as the guns of other [American]
makers, including the bizarre looking Savage, with its second ring trigger which
cockedthearm,andthesidehammerJoslyn.Id.at158.Vastnumbersofgunswere
alsopurchasedinEuropewhere,inthefirst15monthsofthewar,theUnionbought
over738,000firearms(includinglongarmsaswellasrevolvers).ALLAN R. MILLETT
& PETER MASLOWSKI, FOR THE COMMON DEFENSE: A MILITARY HISTORY OF THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA216(1984).SomeUnioninfantryunitswereissuedre
volversandmanyenlistedinfantrymeninotherunitsboughttheirown.BILBY,supra
note110,at160.
112.Thesefiguresarejustestimates.Whileatleastsomewhatreliablefiguresexist
forhowmanymenservedatanyonetimeintheUnionArmy,thatnumberisnot
coextensivewithhowmanyservedintotal.SomeUnionsoldiersservedthrough
outthewar,reenlistingwhentheiroriginalenlistmentswereup.Othersmustered
out and were replaced with new recruits. Still others deserted long before their
termswereup,againrequiringreplacements.Somescoundrelsenlistedjustforthe
enlistmentbonus,anddesertedassoonastheycould;someofthesewentthrough
theenlistmentanddesertionprocessmultipletimes,collectinganewbonusundera
newnametimeaftertime.THE WORLD ALMANAC AND BOOK OF FACTS 2006,at77
(2006)givesfiguresof2,128,948fortheUnionArmyand84,415fortheMarines;it
estimatesthattheConfederateArmyssizewasbetween600,000to1,500,000.
682
[Vol.30
At wars end,the U.S.Army andNavy wereleft with vast

numbersofsurplusrevolvers,boththosetheyhadpurchased
and those captured from Confederate forces. As the Army
plummeted to slightly over 11,000 men,113 hundreds of thou
sands of military surplus revolvers were sold at very low
prices.In addition, whentheirenlistmentswere up, or when
theyweremusteredoutatwarsend,formerofficersandsol
diers retained hundreds of thousands of both revolvers and
rifles. These commandeered arms included many of the new
repeatingriflestheUnionhadbought(overtheferventobjec
tions of shortsighted military procurement officers) at the
command of President Lincoln, who had tested the Spencer
riflehimself.AfterhisdeaththeArmyrevertedtothesingle
shot rifle, disposing of all its multishots at surplus and
therebyruiningSpencerbygluttingthemarket.114
ThusovertheimmediatepostCivilWaryearsthecountry
wasawashwithmilitarypistolsandriflesofthemostmod
ern design.115 The final three decades of the century saw the
introductionandmarketingofthetwodollarpistol,which
were very cheap handguns manufactured largely out of pot
metal.116 In addition to being sold locally, such suicide spe
cialsweremarketednationwidethroughMontgomeryWard
catalogsstartingin1872andbySearsfrom1886.117Theywere
priced as low as $1.69, and were marketed under names like
theLittleGiantandtheTrampsTerror.118
113.RUSSELL F. WEIGLEY,HISTORYOFTHE UNITED STATES ARMY262(1967)(The

namesof1,000,516officersandmenwereonthe[UnionArmys]rollsonMay10,
1865; by [the end of 1866, the draft had ended and]...only 11,043 volunteers re
mained....).
114.KENNETT&ANDERSON,supranote110,at9293.
115.DAVID T. COURTWRIGHT, VIOLENT LAND: SINGLE MENAND SOCIAL DISORDER
FROMTHEFRONTIERTOTHEINNERCITY42(1996).
116.KENNETT&ANDERSON,supranote110,at99.
117.Id.at9899.
118.Id.at 98100. An1879issueofScientificAmericancontainsan advertisement
forCODpurchasingofthe$2.75Czarrevolver,presumablyanattempttocapital
ize on the Smith & Wesson Russian, a very high quality weapon that Smith &
WessonmanufacturedfortheRussiangovernmentandsoldthroughthe1870s.SCI.
AM., June 14, 1879, at 381. The 1884 Price ListFirearms Catalog for N. Curry &
Brother,armsdealersofSanFrancisco,listspricesfrom$2.00forthe7shotFash
ion and Blue Jacket revolvers to $2.50 and $3.50 for the Kitemaug and
Ranger revolvers to various Colt and Smith & Wesson revolvers selling at from
$15.00to$17.00.KENNETT&ANDERSON,supranote110,at98100.
683
Thus, the period between 1866 and 1900 saw a vast diffu
sion of commercial and military surplus revolvers and lever
actionriflesthroughouttheAmericanpopulace.Yet,farfrom
rising,homicideseemstohavefallenoffsharplyduringthese
thirtyyears.
Whetherornotgunswerethecause,homicidesteadilyde
clined over a period of five centuries coincident with the in
ventionofgunsandtheirdiffusionthroughoutthecontinent.
In America, from the seventeenth century through the early
nineteenth century, murder was rare and rarely involved
guns,thoughgunownershipwasuniversalbylawandcolo
nial Americans were the most heavily armed people in the
world.119 By the 1840s, gun ownership had declined but
homicide began a spectacular rise through the early 1860s.
FromtheendoftheCivilWartotheturnofthetwentiethcen
tury, however, America in general, and urban areas in par
ticular,suchasNewYork,experiencedatremendousspurtin
ownership of higher capacity revolvers and rifles than had
ever existed before, but the number of murders sharply de
clined.120
Insum,thenotionthatmoregunsequalmoredeathisnot
borneoutbythehistoricalevidenceavailablefortheperiod
betweentheMiddleAgesandthetwentiethcentury.Yetthis
conclusionmustbeviewedwithcaution.Whileonemayde
scribebroadgeneraltrendsinmurderratesandintheavail
abilityoffirearms,itisnotpossibletodosowithexactitude.
Notuntilthelate1800sinEngland,andthemid1900sinthe
UnitedStatesweretheredetaileddataonhomicide.Informa
tion about the distribution of firearms is even more sparse.
For instance, Lanes generalizations about the rarity of gun
murdersandlowAmericanmurderratesingeneralaresub
jecttosomedispute.Professor RandolphRoth,forexample,
has shown that early American murder rates and the extent
to which guns were used in murder varied greatly between
differingareasandtimeperiods.121
119.DEDERER,supranote106,at116.
120.SeeLANE,supranote65,at181,307;ERIC H. MONKKONEN, MURDER IN NEW
YORKCITY21,3031,38(2001).
121.Randolph Roth, Guns, Gun Culture, and Homicide: The Relationship Between
Firearms,theUsesofFirearms,andInterpersonalViolence,59WM. & MARY Q.223,234
40(2002).
684
C.
[Vol.30
LaterandMoreSpecificMacroHistoricalEvidence
Malcolm presents reliable trend data on both gun owner

ship and crime in England for the period between 1871 and
1964. Significantly, these trend data do not at all correlate as
themantrawouldpredict:violentcrimedidnotincreasewith
increased gun ownership nor did it decline in periods in
whichgunownershipwaslower.122
In the United States, the murder rate doubled in the ten
year span between the mid1960s and the mid1970s. Since
this rise coincided with vastly increasing gun sales, it was
viewedbymanyasproofpositivethatmoregunsequalmore
death.Thatconclusion,however,doesnotfollow.Itisatleast
equally possible that the causation was reversed: that is, the
decades spectacular increases in murder, burglary, and all
kinds of violent crimes caused fearful people to buy guns.123
The dubiousness of assuming that the gun sales caused the
riseinmurderratherthanthereversemighthavebeenclearer
haditbeenknowninthisperiodthatvirtuallythesamemur
der rate increase was occurring in gunless Russia.124 Clearly
there is little basis to assume guns were the reason for the
AmericanmurderraterisewhentheRussianmurderrateex
hibited the same increase without a similar increase in the
numberofguns.
Reliable information on both gun ownership and murder
rates in the United States is available only for the period
commencing at the end of World War II. Significantly, the
decade from the mid1960s to the mid1970s is a unique ex
ception to the general pattern that, decadebydecade, the
number of guns owned by civilians has risen steadily and
122.SeeMALCOLM,supranote10,app.at258.Thehandgunownershipdatacited
aretaxdataandsodoubtlessfailtocountthepistolsownedbycriminalsandothers
whofailedtopaytaxes.Theextremelylownumbersofguncrimes,however,donot
support the notion that there were numerous criminal owners of guns, or at least
thattheyusedthegunsforcrime.
123.Incontrasttothemoregunsequalmoredeathmantra,studiessuggestthat
crime rate increases fuel gun buying, rather than the other way around. See, e.g.,
Douglas C. Bice & David D. Hemley, The Market for New Handguns: An Empirical
Investigation, 45 J.L. & ECON. 251, 253, 261262 (2002); Lawrence Southwick, Jr., Do
GunsCauseCrime?DoesCrimeCauseGuns?AGrangerTest,25ATLANTICECON.J.256,
256,272(1997);KLECK,supranote8,at7981.
124.In1965,theRussianhomicideratestoodat5.9per100,000populationwhile
theAmericanratewas5.4.Asof1975,bothRussianandAmericanrateshadnearly
doubled,theRussianto10.3andtheAmericanto9.7.SeePridemore,supranote2,at
272fig.2;seealsosupranote6andaccompanyingtext.
685
dramatically but murder rates nevertheless have remained

stableorevendeclined.Asforthesecondhalfofthetwenti
eth century, and especially its last quarter, a study compar
ing the number of guns to murder rates found that during
the 25year period from 1973 to 1997, the number of hand
gunsownedbyAmericansincreased160%whilethenumber
of all firearms rose 103%. Yet over that period, the murder
rate declined 27.7%.125 It continued to decline in the years
1998,1999,and2000,despitetheadditionineachyearoftwo
to three million handguns and approximately five million
firearmsofallkinds.Bytheendof2000,thetotalAmerican
gunstock stood at well over 260 million951.1 guns for
every1,000Americansbutthemurderratehadreturnedto
thecomparativelylowlevelpriortotheincreasesofthemid
1960stomid1970speriod.126
Insum,thedataforthedecadessincetheendofWorldWar
IIalsofailstobearoutthemoregunsequalmoredeathman
tra. The per capita accumulated stock of guns has increased,
yet there has been no correspondingly consistent increase in
either total violence or gun violence. The evidence is consis
tentwiththehypothesisthatgunpossessionlevelshavelittle
impactonviolencerates.127
D.
GeographicPatternswithinNations
Onceagain,ifmoregunsequalmoredeathandfewerguns
equallessdeath,areaswithinnationswithhighergunowner
ship should in general have more murders than those with
less gun ownership ina similararea.But, in fact,the reverse
pattern prevails in Canada,128 England, America, and Swit
zerland,[wheretheareas]withthehighestratesofgunown
ershipwereinfactthosewiththelowestratesofviolence.129
125.DonB.Kates&DanielD.Polsby,LongTermNonrelationshipofWidespreadand
IncreasingFirearmAvailabilitytoHomicideintheUnitedStates,4HOMICIDE STUD.185,
19091(2000).
126.See communication from Gary Kleck, Professor, Florida State University, to
DonB.KatesandGaryMauser(Feb.26,2003)(onfilewithAuthors).
128.See Philip C. Stenning, Gun Control: A Critique of Current Policy, POLY
OPTIONS,Oct.1994,at13,15.
129.MALCOLM,supranote10,at204;seealsoBBCNews,HandgunCrimeUpDe
spiteBan,July16,2001,http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/1440764.stm(notingthat
English areas with very low numbers of firearms have higher than average gun
crimewhileareaswiththehighestlevelsoflegallyheldgunsdonot).
686
[Vol.30
A recent study of all counties in the United States has again

demonstratedthelackofrelationshipbetweentheprevalence
offirearmsandhomicide.130
This inverse correlation is one of several that seems to
contradict more guns equal more death. For decades the
gun lobby has emphasized that, in general, the American
jurisdictions where guns are most restricted have consis
tently had the highest violent crime rates, and those with
thefewestrestrictionshavethelowestviolentcrimerates.131
For instance, robbery is highest in jurisdictions which are
most restrictive of gun ownership.132As to one specific con
trol,thebanoncarryingconcealedweaponsforprotection,
violentcrime rates were highest in states [that flatly ban
carrying concealed weapons], next highest in those that al
lowed local authorities discretion [to deny] permits, and
lowestinstateswithnondiscretionaryconcealedweapons
laws under which police are legally required to license
every qualified applicant.133 Also of interest are the exten
sive opinion surveys of incarcerated felons, both juvenile
and adult, in which large percentages of the felons replied
thattheyoftenfearedpotentialvictimsmightbearmedand
aborted violent crimes because of that fear.134 The felons
most frightened about confronting an armed victim were
thosefromstateswiththegreatestrelativenumberofpri
vatelyownedfirearms.135
130.TomislavKovandzic,MarkE.Schaffer,&GaryKleck,GunPrevalence,Homi
cide Rates and Causality: A GMM Approach to Endogeneity Bias 3940 (Ctr. for Econ.
Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 5357, 2005) available at
http://ssrn.com/abstract=878132.
131.Seee.g.,NationalRifleAssociationInstituteforLegislativeAction(NRAILA),
More Guns, Less Crime (Sept. 26, 2006), http://www.nraila.org/Issues/
FactSheets/Read.aspx?idequals206&issueequals007; NRAILA, The War Against
Handguns (Feb. 15, 2001), www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets/Read.aspx?idequals17;
NRAILA, RighttoCarry 2006 (Oct. 3, 2006), www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets/
Read.aspx?idequals18; NRAILA, The Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act,
Does it Live Up to its Name? (July 28, 1999), www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets/
Read.aspx?idequals73.
132.See, e.g., Philip J. Cook, The Effect of Gun Availability on Robbery and Robbery
Murder:ACrossSectionStudyofFiftyCities,3POLYSTUD.REV.ANN.743,770(1979).
133.LOTT,supranote11,at43.
134.WRIGHT&ROSSI,supranote83,at147,150.
135.Id.at151.
E.
687
GeographicComparisons:EuropeanGun
OwnershipandMurderRates
Thistopichasalreadybeenaddressedatsomelengthinconnec
tionwithTables13,whichcontainthelatestdataavailable.Tables
46, contain further, and somewhat more comprehensive, data
fromtheearlyandmid1990s.136Thesestatisticsreinforcethepoint
thatmurderratesaredeterminedbybasicsocioculturalandeco
nomicfactorsratherthanmereavailabilityofsomeparticularform
of weaponry. Consider Norway and its neighbors Sweden, the
Netherlands, and Denmark. Norway has far and away Western
Europeshighesthouseholdgunownershiprate(32%),butalsoits
lowest murder rate. The Netherlands has the lowest gun owner
shiprateinWesternEurope(1.9%),andSwedenliesmidwaybe
tween (15.1%) the Netherlands and Norway. Yet the Dutch gun
murderrateishigherthantheNorwegian,andtheSwedishrateis
evenhigher,thoughonlyslightly.137
Table4:IntentionalDeaths:UnitedStatesvs.
ContinentalEuropeRates
Inorderofhighestcombinedrate;nationshavinghigherratesthanthe
UnitedStatesareindicatedbyasterisk(suiciderate)or+sign(murderrate).
Nation
Russia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Hungary
Ukraine
Slovenia
Finland
Denmark
Croatia
Austria
Bulgaria
France
Switzerland
Suicide
41.2*
40.1*
40.7*
45.6*
27.9*
32.9*
22.5*
28.4*
27.2*
22.3*
22.8*
22.2*
17.3*
20.8*
21.4*
Murder
30.6+
22.2+
18.2+
11.7+
10.4+
3.5
11.3+
2.4
2.9
4.9
3.3
1.0
5.1
1.1
1.1
Combinedrates
71.8
62.3
58.9
57.3
38.3
36.4
33.8
30.4
30.1
27.2
26.1
23.2
22.4
21.9
24.1
136.Tables46werepreviouslypublishedasappendicestoKates,supranote81,
app.at81tbl.1,82tbl.2,83tbl.3.
137.SeeinfraTable5.
688
Belgium
UnitedStates
Poland
Germany
Romania
Sweden
Norway
Holland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Greece
18.7*
11.6
14.2*
15.8*
12.3*
15.3*
12.3*
9.8
8.2
8.2
8.1
3.3
1.7
7.8
2.8
1.1
4.1
1.0
0.8
1.2
1.7
1.7
0.9
1.3
[Vol.30
20.4
19.4
17.0
16.9
16.4
16.3
13.1
11.0
9.9
9.9
9.0
4.6
Notes:DatabasedingeneralonU.N. DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK(1998)asre

portedinDavidC.Stolinsky,America:TheMostViolentNation?5 MED. SENTINEL
199201(2000).Itshouldbeunderstoodthat,thoughthe1998Yearbookgivesfig
uresforaslateas1996,thefiguresarenotnecessarilyforthatyear.TheYearbook
containsthelatestfigureeachnationhasprovidedtheU.N.,whichmaybe1996,
1995,or1994.
TheSwisshomicidefigurethatStolinskyreportsisanerrorbecauseitcom
binesattemptswithactualmurders.WehavecomputedtheSwissmurderrate
byaveragingthe1994and1995SwissNationalPolicefiguresforactualmurders
in those years given in RICHARD MUNDAY & JAN A. STEVENSON, GUNS AND
VIOLENCE:THEDEBATEBEFORELORDCULLEN268(1996).
Table5:EuropeanGun/HandgunViolentDeath
Nation
Belgium
France
WestGermany
Holland
Italy
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
Suicide
with
handgun
Murder
with
handgun
Percentof
households
withguns
Percentof
households
withhand
guns
18.7
20.8
15.8
9.8
8.2
12.3
15.3
20.8
1.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.7
0.8
1.3
1.1**
16.6%
22.6%
8.9%
1.9%
16.0%
32%%
15.1%
27.2%
6.8%
5.5%
6.7%*
1.2%
5.5%
3.8%
1.5%
12.2%
Notes:Forderivationofthehomiciderates,seenotestoTable4.Thedata
on household firearms ownership come from British Home Office figures
printedinRICHARDMUNDAY&JANA.STEVENSON,GUNSANDVIOLENCE:THE
DEBATEBEFORELORDCULLEN30,275(1996).
*NotethatthedatahereareforWestGermanyandwereobtainedwhen
thatnationstillexistedasanindependententity.SeeinfraTables1&4forlater
(butdifferentlyderived)dataforthecurrentnationofGermany.
**Again, the Swiss homicide figure that Stolinsky reports is an error be
causeitcombinesattemptswithactualmurders.SeenotesforTable4.
689
Table6:EuropeanFirearmsViolentDeaths
Nation
Austria
Belarus
CzechRep.
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Moldova
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Suicide
Suicide
with
gun
N/A
27.26
9.88
39.99
27.28
15.80
3.54
33.34
N/A
14.23
N/A
13.24
5.92
15.65
N/A
N/A
1.01
3.63
5.78
1.23
1.30
0.88
N/A
0.16
N/A
0.58
N/A
1.95
Murder
Murder
with
gun
Numberof
gunsper
100,000
population
2.14
9.86
2.80
22.11
3.25
1.81
1.33
4.07
17.06
2.61
4.32
2.38
1.58
1.35
0.53
N/A
0.92
6.2
0.87
0.21
0.55
0.47
0.63
0.27
0.12
0.36
0.19
0.31
41.02*
16.5
27.58
28.56
411.20**
122.56
77.00
15.54
6.61
5.30
2.97
31.91
64.69
246.65
Notes:ItbearsemphasisthatthefollowingdatacomefromaspecialU.N.
reportwhosedataarenotfullycomparabletothoseinTables4and5because
they cover different years and derive from substantially differing sources.138
Thisspecialreportisbasedondataobtainedfromthegovernmentsofthena
tionssetoutbelow,especiallydataongunpermitsorotherofficialindiciaof
gunownershipinthosenations.139Thedataonsuicideandmurderinthose
138.Thedataderivefromamuchmoreextensivesurveyoflegalfirearmsowner
ship in numerous nations which was carried out by researchers provided by the
Government of Canada under the auspices of the United Nations Economic and
SocialCouncil,CommissiononCrimePreventionandCriminalJusticein1997.The
entiresurveyispublishedasareporttotheSecretaryGeneralonApril25,1997as
E/CN.15/1997/4.Thatreportisanalysedinsomedetailinanunpublishedpaper(A
Cross Sectional Study of the Relationship Between Levels of Gun Ownership and
ViolentDeaths)writtenbytheleadingEnglishstudentoffirearmsregulation,re
tiredChiefSuperintendentofEnglishpoliceColinGreenwoodoftheFirearmsRe
searchandAdvisoryService.WeareindebtedtoChiefSuperintendentGreenwood
for the opportunity to review his paper. Note that in the table which follows we
havefocusedonlyonEuropeannations.
139.ThegunownershipdatainTable4derivefromarandomtelephonesurvey
ongunownershipinvariousnations.ChiefSuperintendentGreenwoodspaperis
contemptuous of such data, in part because people may be unwilling to acknowl
edgeowninggunstotelephoningpollsters.ForsimilardoubtsseeDonB.Kates&
Daniel D. Polsby, Long Term NonRelationship of Firearm Availability to Homicide, 4
HOMICIDE STUD. 185201 (2000). But that was in the context of comparing survey
dataonthenumberofgunsownedtoproductionandimportantdatathatareun
questionablymorecomprehensiveandsuperiorineveryway.ChiefSuperintendent
Greenwood himself admits that the special U.N. report data are not necessarily
690
[Vol.30
nationsalsocomefromtheirgovernmentsasdothesimilardatainTables4
and 5, but for later years, and also include data on the number of firearm
homicidesandfirearmsuicideswhicharenotavailablefromtheU.N.source
usedinTables4and5.
*ThismaywellbeanundercountbecauseanAustrianlicenseisnotlimited
toasinglefirearmbutratherallowsthelicenseetopossessmultipleguns.
**The source from which Table 5 derives also gives figures for Finland,
whichwehaveomittedtherebecausetheyareearlierandcloselysimilarex
ceptinonerespect:insteadofofficialownershipfiguresforguns,theygivea
surveybasedfigureforhouseholdshavingagun:23.2%.
ThesecomparisonsarereinforcedbyTable6,whichgivesdiffer
ently derived (and noncomparable) gun ownership rates, overall
murderrates,andratesofgunmurder,foralargersetofEuropean
nations.140Table6revealsthateventhoughSwedenhasmorethan
doubletherateofgunownershipasneighboringGermany,aswell
asmoregunmurders,ithas25%lessmurderoverall.Inturn,Ger
many,withthreetimesthegunownershiprateofneighboringAus
tria,hasasubstantiallylowermurderrateoverallandalowergun
murderrate.Likewise,thoughGreecehasovertwicethepercapita
gunownershiprateoftheCzechRepublic,Greecehassubstantially
less gun murder and less than half as much murder overall. Al
thoughSpainhasover12timesmoregunownershipthanPoland,
the latter has almost a third more gun murder and more overall
murder than the former. Finally, Finland has 14 times more gun
ownershipthanneighboringEstonia,yetEstoniasgunmurderand
overallmurderratesareaboutseventimeshigherthanFinlands.
F.
GeographicComparisons:GunOwnershipandSuicideRates
Themantramoregunsequalmoredeathandfewergunsequal
less death is also used to argue that limiting access to firearms
couldpreventmanysuicides.141Onceagain,thisassertionisdi
comprehensiveandareproblematicinvariousotherrespects.Evenassumingthey
are clearly superior to the survey data, the latter cover multiple nations that the
specialU.N.reportdoesnot.Giventhatneithersourceisindubitable,itseemspref
erable to have such information on those nations as the survey data reveal, rather
thannodataatall.
140.Table 6 covers different years from Table 5, its comparative gun ownership
figuresderivefromgovernmentrecordsratherthansurveydata,anditgivesrates
for gun murders, data that are not available in the sources from which Table 5 is
taken.SeetheexplanatorynotethatprecedesTable6.
141.ArthurL.Kellermannetal.,SuicideintheHomeinRelationtoGunOwnership,
327NEW ENG. J. MED.467,467,47172(1992);seealsoAntoonLeenaars,etal.,Con
trolling the Environment to Prevent Suicide: International Perspectives, 45 CAN. J.
PSYCHIATRY639(2000).
691
rectly contradicted by the studies of 36 and 21 nations (respec

tively)whichfindnostatisticalrelationship.Overallsuiciderates
werenoworseinnationswithmanyfirearmsthaninthosewhere
firearmswerefarlesswidespread.142
Consider the data about European nations in Tables 5 and 6.
Sweden,withovertwiceasmuchgunownershipasneighboring
Germanyandathirdmoregunsuicide,neverthelesshasthelower
overallsuiciderate.Greecehasnearlythreetimesmoregunown
ershipthantheCzechRepublicandsomewhatmoregunsuicide,
yet the overall Czech suicide rate is over 175% higher than the
Greekrate.Spainhasover12timesmoregunownershipthanPo
land, yet the latters overall suicide rate is more than double the
formers. Tragically, Finland has over 14 times more gun owner
shipthanneighboringEstonia,andagreatdealmoregunrelated
suicide.Estonia,however,turnsouttohaveamuchhighersuicide
ratethanFinlandoverall.
There is simply no relationship evident between the extent of
suicide and the extent of gun ownership. People do not commit
suicide because they have guns available. In the absence of fire
arms, people who are inclined to commit suicide kill themselves
some other way.143 Two examples seem as pertinent as they are
poignant. The first concerns the 1980s increase in suicide among
youngAmericanmales,anincreasethat,althoughrelativelymod
est, inspired perfervid denunciations of gun ownership.144 What
thesedenunciationsfailedtomentionwasthatsuicideofteenagers
andyoungadultswasincreasingthroughouttheentireindustrial
ized world, regardless of gun availability, and often much more
rapidlythanintheUnitedStates.Theonlyunusualaspectofsui
cideintheUnitedStateswasthatitinvolvedguns.Theirrelevancy
ofgunstotheincreaseinAmericansuicideisevidentbecausesui
cide among English youth actually increased 10 times more
142.SeeKilliasetal.,supranote42,at430(studyof21nations);seegenerallyKLECK,
supranote8.
143.See KLECK, supra note 8, at ch. 8; see also World Health Organization, supra
note43,at3(showingthataroundtheworldfirearmsaccountedforonlyonefifth
of all suicides, just ahead of poisoning....[s]trangulation, i.e. (hanging) was the
mostfrequentlyusedmethodofsuicide).
144.See,e.g.,JeffreyH.Boyd&EveK.Moscicki,FirearmsandYouthSuicide,76AM.
J. PUB. HEALTH1240(1986);JamesA.Mercyetal.,PublicHealthPolicyforPreventing
Violence,12HEALTH AFF.7(1993);DanielW.Webster&ModenaE.H.Wilson,Gun
ViolenceAmongYouthandthePediatriciansRoleinPrimaryPrevention,94PEDIATRICS
617(1994);LoisA.Fingerhut&JoelC.Kleinman,FirearmMortalityAmongChildren
andYouth,NATLCTRHEALTHSTAT.ADVANCEDATA,Nov.3,1989,at1.
692
[Vol.30
sharply,withcarexhaustpoisoning[being]themethodofsuicide
used most often.145 By omitting such facts, the articles blaming
gunsforincreasingAmericansuicideevadedtheinconvenienceof
havingtoexplainexactlywhatsocialbenefitnationswithfewguns
receivedfromhavingtheiryouthsuicidesoccurinotherways.
Evenmore poignantarethesuicidesofmanyyoungIndian
womenbornandraisedontheislandofFiji.Ingeneral,women
aremuchlesslikelytocommitsuicidethanaremen.146Thissta
tisticistrueofFijianwomenoverallaswell,butnotofwomen
inthelargepartofFijispopulationthatisofIndianancestry.
Aschildren,theseIndianwomenareraisedinmoreorlesslov
ing and supportive homes. But upon marriage they are dis
persed across the island to remote areas where they live with
their husbands families, an often overtly hostile situation the
husbandsdolittletomitigate.IndianwomenonFijihaveasui
cide rate nearly as high as that of Indian men, a rate many
times greater than that of nonIndian Fijian women.147 It also
bears emphasis that the overall Fijian suicide rate far exceeds
thatoftheUnitedStates.
The method of suicide is particularly significant. Fijian
women of Indian ancestry commit suicide without using
guns, perhaps because guns are unavailable. About three
quartersofthesewomenhangthemselves,whilevirtuallyall
the rest die from consuming the agricultural pesticide
paraquat. The recommendation of the author whose article
chroniclesallthesesuicidesissomyopicastoalmostcarica
turethemoregunsequalmoredeathmindset:toreducesui
cidebyIndianwomen,sherecommendsthattheFijianstate
stringently control paraquat.148 Apparently she believes de
145.Keith Hawton, By Their Own Young Hand, 304 BRIT. MED. J. 1000 (1992); see
also Teenage Deaths Increasing Across Europe, CRIM. & JUST. INTL, Nov.Dec. 1991,
at4.
146.World
Health
Organization,
Suicide
Rates
by
Country,
http://www.who.int/mental_health/prevention/suicide/country_reports/en/
index.html (follow hyperlinks to specific countries) (last visited Jan. 18, 2007). For
example,intheUnitedStates,suicideratesformalesexceedthoseforfemalesbya
17.94.2margin(2002data).InDenmark,themarginis19.28.1(2001data);inAus
tria,themarginis27.08.2(2004data);andinBelgium,themarginis31.211.4(1997
data).
147.See Ruth H. Haynes, Suicide in Fiji: A Preliminary Study, 145 BRIT. J.
PSYCHIATRY433(1984).
148.Id.at437.Moreorlessthesamesituationseemstoprevailinthesubstantially
IndianpopulatednationofSriLanka(formerlyCeylon).Ithasoneofthehighest
suicideratesintheworld....Suicidesareespeciallyfrequentamongyoungadults,
693
creased access to a means of death will reconcile these

womentoalifesituationtheyregardasunendurable.Atthe
riskofbelaboringwhatshouldbealltooobvious,restricting
paraquatwillnotimprovethelivesofthesepoorwomen.It
willonlyreorientthemtowardshanging,drowning,orsome
othermeansofsuicide.
Gunsarejustoneamongnumerousavailabledeadlyinstru
ments. Thus, banning guns cannot reduce the amount of sui
cides. Such measures only reduce the number of suicides by
firearms. Suicides committed in other ways increase to make
up the difference. People do not commit suicide because they
have guns available. They kill themselves for reasons they
deem sufficient, and in the absence of firearms they just kill
themselvesinsomeotherway.
CONCLUSION
ThisArticlehasreviewedasignificantamountofevidence
fromawidevarietyofinternationalsources.Eachindividual
portion of evidence is subject to cavilat the very least the
general objection that the persuasiveness of social scientific
evidence cannot remotely approach the persuasiveness of
conclusions in the physical sciences. Nevertheless, the bur
denofproofrestsontheproponentsofthemoregunsequal
more death and fewer guns equal less death mantra, espe
cially since they argue public policy ought to be based on
that mantra.149 To bear that burden would at the very least
require showing that a large number of nations with more
guns have more death and that nations that have imposed
stringent gun controls have achieved substantial reductions
in criminal violence (or suicide). But those correlations are
notobservedwhenalarge numberofnationsarecompared
acrosstheworld.
bothmaleandfemale.ComparedtotheU.S.,thesuiciderateformalesages15to24
years in Sri Lanka is nearly four times greater; the female rate nearly 13 times
greater.Themostcommonmodeofsuicideisingestionofliquidpesticides.LawrenceR.
Berger,SuicidesandPesticidesinSriLanka,78AM.J.PUB.HEALTH826(1988)(empha
sisadded).
149.(1)Thosewhoproposetochangethestatusquobeartheburdenofproving
thatchangeisagoodidea;(2)thosewhoproposeanewpolicybeartheburdenof
provingthatthepolicyisagoodidea;and(3)inafreesocietythosewhoproposeto
abolishapersonallibertypassionatelyvaluedbymillionsbeartheburdenofprov
ingthatabolishmentisagoodidea.
694
[Vol.30
Over a decade ago, Professor Brandon Centerwall of the Uni

versityofWashingtonundertookanextensive,statisticallysophis
ticatedstudycomparingareasintheUnitedStatesandCanadato
determine whether Canadas more restrictive policies had better
containedcriminalviolence.Whenhepublishedhisresultsitwas
withtheadmonition:
Ifyouaresurprised by[our]finding[s],so [are we].[We]did
not begin this research with any intent to exonerate hand
guns,butthereitisanegativefinding,tobesure,butanega
tivefindingisneverthelessapositivecontribution.Itdirectsus
wherenottoaimpublichealthresources.150
150.Brandon S. Centerwall, Authors Response to Invited Commentary: Common

WisdomandPlainTruth,134AM.J.EPIDEMIOLOGY1264,1264(1991).

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WOULDBANNINGFIREARMSREDUCE

3.See GEORGE NEWTON & FRANKLIN ZIMRING, FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE IN

The homicide rate data comes from an annually published report,

8.GARY KLECK, TARGETING GUNS: FIREARMS AND THEIR CONTROL20(1997)(dis

The same pattern appears when comparisons of violence to

nations nineteenth and twentieth century experience as fol

perience deserves note, given how often and favorably advo

To conserve the resources of the inundated criminal justice

1980s and1990s.During these two decades, while Britain and

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cpus97.pdf, and ALLEN BECK & PAIGE

37.See Delbert S. Elliott, LifeThreatening Violence is Primarily a Crime Problem: A

However unintentionally, the irrelevance of focusing on

There is no social benefit in decreasing the availability of

prove gun advocates assertion that gun controls actually

Once again, we are not arguing that the data in Table 2

murder rates than neighboring nations that permit handgun

The more guns equal more death mantra seems plausible

51.COLIN GREENWOOD, FIREARMS CONTROL: A STUDY OF ARMED CRIME AND

72.Anthony A. Braga et al., Understanding and Preventing Gang Violence: Problem

quaintance homicide suggest there is no reason for laws pro

Antigun activists are not alone in their belief that widespread

gun ownership rate but a murder rate 2500% higher. Looking at

tion, thereby deterring Norwegian criminals from committing

Thus both sides of the gun prohibition debate are likely

CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2003,

CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2004,

widespread handgun ownership causes violence and that reducing ownership

Particularly corrosive to the mantra are the facts as to rural

The same requirement was true in America during the pe

tary age, which varied from 45 to 60, depending on the col

TheCivilWar acquainted vastnumbersofmen withmod

At wars end,the U.S.Army andNavy wereleft with vast

113.RUSSELL F. WEIGLEY,HISTORYOFTHE UNITED STATES ARMY262(1967)(The

Malcolm presents reliable trend data on both gun owner

dramatically but murder rates nevertheless have remained

A recent study of all counties in the United States has again

Notes:DatabasedingeneralonU.N. DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK(1998)asre

rectly contradicted by the studies of 36 and 21 nations (respec

creased access to a means of death will reconcile these

Over a decade ago, Professor Brandon Centerwall of the Uni

150.Brandon S. Centerwall, Authors Response to Invited Commentary: Common

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