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if we designate by a triple
the collection of outcomes: treasure in A,
select A, open C which is empty, the event that treasure is behind door is
simply
where
is similarly denoted by
!
#
$%
$%
&% ' #
$
(
&% )
&%
$%(*)
&
('
&%* +,
$%(' ',
$%(' ' #
$
and -
1
$1
2
31465%!
Following the description of the problem, not all elementary events have the same
probability. We have
7
:+;
#
&%
$<
89
14
while
7
7
:
#
<
?@:+;
<
:
( +,
<
?@:+;
(+
$<
:
(' *,
$<
AB:+;
(' ' #
<
&!
8 9 >
:+;
*&
$DCE
#
$<
$!
and
:+;
DC
#
<
GF
:+;
*&
$DC
2#
$<
:+;
<
H
8
:+;
#
<
H
8 9JI
:+;
MLN
2
$<
O
and
2#
$
8 9 >
7
K
:+;
#
$<
P
Thus,
7
Q
:+;
<
R:+;
2
$<
&
:+;
DC
2
$<
S
:+;
2#
$<
7
8
:+;
*&
$MLT
2
$<
:
#
$<
15
:+;
* #
<
:+;
#
<
V;U W
XU
>
:
#
DC
('
<
R:+;
*&
$/
:+;
#
<
:
$DCE
('
<
R:+;
('$
$<
:+;
#
<
VU VU
V;U W
I
V;U W 9 U
>
!
28 Cont