Analysis

of
Abra Cadabra

The situation
Mr. Nair, is a Medical Representative of Abra-Cadabra
Pharmaceuticals India Limited.
He has a sales target of visiting 100 doctors, within a span of 27
days.
He has been invited to Pune by the regional manager of Western
Region, Mr. Kashyap to interact with his fellow representatives.
During these 27 days, there might be some problems due to
possibilities of Heavy rains or Hartal/Bandh, which might cost Mr.
Nair some time.
In any case, Mr. Nair needs at least 25 days to complete his
target.
So we have to check whether it will be possible for him to accept
the invitation considering above constraints and that he requires
one day separately for Pune visit.

Problem Statement
Mr. Nair will decide to go to Pune, only if he is
sure of working for at least 25 days.
This, in turn, means that the number of days that
could be lost due to flood or bandh or hartal
should not exceed 1, as he needs one day to visit
Pune.
Therefore, Mr. Nair needs to compute the
probability that no more than one day is lost in
the remaining 27 days due to flood or bandh or
hartal.

Function & Constraints

f(x) = C(n,x)*(p^x)*((1-p)^(n-x))
n = total number of days available = 27
x = number of days lost due to rains or
bandh/hartal
p = probability of missing a day due to either
rains or bandh/hartal or both
S.t.
x1

Solution
Calculation of p
p = p(A) + p(B) p(AB)
where,
p(A) = probability of missing a day due to rains
p(B) = probability of missing a day due to
bandh/hartal
p(AB) = probability of missing a day due to
both rains and bandh/hartal
Therefore,
p = (1/30) + (14/730) ((1/30)*(14/730))
p = 0.05187

Properties of Binomial
Distribution
The experiment consists of sequence of n
identical trials.
Two outcomes are possible on each trial, success
& failure.
The probability of success/failure does not change
from trial to trial.
All trials are independent.

Calculation of Probability
using Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
P(x) = C(n,x)*(p^x)*(q^(n-x))
x

f(x)

F(x)

0.23736

0.23736

0.35062

0.58798

From above table, it can be observed that the

probability of Mr. Nair missing one or none days
due to either rains or bandh/hartal or both is
approximately 0.58798.

Recommendations
Assumptions:
i. He prioritizes meeting his sales targets over
attending meeting in Pune.
Recommendation:
a) As the probability of Mr. Nair having 26 days
or more at his disposal to meet the sales
targets, is approx. 0.58798, which in our view
is not high enough, we recommend him to not
accept invitation for meeting in Pune.

Thank You!!!