Probability Distributions

Discrete Probability Distribution

M B D Neelakanthie
MBA, MSc in CS, BSc (Special) Hons.
QMS/OHSAS/ISMS/EnMS Auditor, Six Sigma(Green Belt)
 Probability Distributions
• Random Variable: Variable that takes on different
numerical values as a result of the outcome of a
random experiment.
• Random variables are two types:
– Discrete random variable : Random Variable that can
take on only a finite or countably infinite set of
outcomes. Ex: number of defects in a product, number
of customers served in one hour
– Continuous random variable: Variable can assume any
value within a given range. Ex: length, diameter, specific
gravity of liquid
 Probability Distributions

• The set of probabilities of all events in an

event space is called probability
distribution for that event space.
• Probability distribution is a mathematical
model that relates the value of a variable
with the probabilities of occurrence of
those values in the population.
 Probability Distributions
• For discrete random variables, a probability
distribution shows the values that the random
variable can assume and their corresponding
probabilities.
• Examples of discrete random variables are the
number of defects in an assembly, the number
of customers served over a period of time etc.
 Probability Distributions
• Let X denote a random variable that
represents the number of defective solders in
a printed circuit board. The probability
distribution of the discrete random variable X
may be given by
X 0 1 2 3

P(X) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

This table gives the values taken by random variable and their
corresponding probabilities. For instance, P(X= 1) = 0.4; that
is, there is a 40% chance of finding one defective solder
 Probability Distributions
• Discrete probability distribution describes the
probability of occurrence of each value of a
discrete random variable.
– Binomial Distribution
– Poisson Distribution
• Continuous probability distribution describes the
probabilities of the possible values of a
continuous random variable.
– Normal Distribution
– Exponential Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
• Discrete Distribution
• Describes the result of an experiment which has only two
outcomes
– Yes/No, Pass/Fail, Hit/Miss
• Consider a series of independent trials where each trial results in
one of two outcomes. Theses outcomes are either a ‘success’ or a
‘failure’. Probability of success (p) to be constant on any trial.
• X denote the number of successes in ‘n’ trials , then the
probability of successes is:
 Binomial Distribution
• A manufacturing process is estimated to
produce 5% nonconforming items. If a
random sample of five items is chosen,
find the probability of getting two
nonconforming items.
p=0.05, n=5, x=2
 Binomial Distribution
• 60% of people who purchase sports cars are
men.  If 10 sports car owners are randomly
selected, find the probability that exactly 7
are men
n=10, r = 7, p=0.6
P(X=7) = nCr Pr (1-p)n-r
= 10!/(10-7)! 7! x 0.67 (1-0.6)3
=
120 x 0.02799 x 0.064
= 0.215
 Poisson Distribution
• Poisson distribution is used to model the
number of events that happen within a
product unit/space or volume/time period.
• Ex: machine breakdowns per month, number
of defective per item.
The probability function:

λ – mean/average number of events happen

over the unit.
e – 2.718
 Poisson Distribution - Example
• The estimated average number of surface
defects in 20m2 of a paper produced by a
process is 6. What is the probability of finding
no more than 2 defects in 20 m2 ?.
• λ = 6, X <= 2

The mean and the variance of

Poisson distribution are equal and are given by
 Poisson Distribution - Example
• Average rate of arrivals of patients at a
clinic is 5 per hour. Find the probability of
a) Two patients or less arriving in an hour
b) Exactly three patients arriving in an hour
c) More than three patients are arriving in
an hour
a) P(less than or equal to 2)=P(X<=2)
= P(0) + P(1) + P(2)
P(x)= e-λ λx
x!

λ=5
P(0) = e-5 50 / 0! = 0.0067
P(1) = e-5 51 / 1! = 0.0337
P(2) = e-5 52 / 2! = 0.0842
P(3) = e-5 53 / 3! = 0.1404
P(X<=2) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2)
= 0.0067+0.0337+0.0842 = 0.1246
b) P(Exactly three patient arrives) = P(X=3)
P(x)= e-λ λx
x!

P(3) = e-5 53 / 3! = 0.1404

c) P(More than 3) = P(X>3) = 1- P(X<=3)
= 1 – (P(0) +P(1)+P(2)+P(3))
= 1- (0.0067+0.0337+0.0842+0.1404)
= 1-0.265 = 0.735
 Discrete probability distribution
• A process of producing glass bottles on continuous
basis. Historical data shows that 1% of the bottles
has one or more defects. If we draw a sample of 10
units, what is the probability that there will be 0
non-conforming bottles.
• A production line produces guided missiles. When
each missile is completed an audit is conducted by
Air force and every nonconformance is noted. Past
records shows that on the average each missile has 3
minor non-conformances. What is the probability
that a missile will have 0 non-conformance?
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