Assignment GSLC Session 4

Continuous Probability Distributions

Alfath Muhammad Syakrifilhaz NIM : 2702285126

LD10 EBC

QUESTION NO 1

a. In a uniform distribution, the probability density function is given by:

f(x) = 1 / (b - a) for a ≤ x ≤ b
In this case, the minimum amount of rainfall is 0.5 inches (a) and the maximum is 3.00 inches
(b). So, a = 0.5 inches and b = 3.00 inches.
b. The mean (average) of a uniform distribution is given by:
Mean (μ) = (a + b) / 2
Mean (μ) = (0.5 + 3.00) / 2 = 1.75 inches
The standard deviation of a uniform distribution is given by:
Standard Deviation (σ) = (b - a) / √12
Standard Deviation (σ) = (3.00 - 0.5) / √12 ≈ 0.866 inches
c. To find the probability of less than an inch of rain for the month, you can use the
probability density function:
P(X < 1) = (1 / (b - a)) * (1 - a)
P(X < 1) = (1 / (3.00 - 0.5)) * (1 - 0.5) = (1 / 2.5) * 0.5 = 0.2
So, the probability of less than an inch of rain for the month is 0.2 or 20%.
d. To find the probability of exactly 1.00 inch of rain, you need to find the width of the
interval from 1.00 inches to 1.00 inches, which is 0.
P(X = 1) = 0
In a continuous uniform distribution, the probability of any specific single value is 0.
e. To find the probability of more than 1.50 inches of rain for the month, you can use the
probability density function:
P(X > 1.50) = 1 - P(X ≤ 1.50)
P(X > 1.50) = 1 - P(X < 1.50)
To find P(X < 1.50), you can use the formula from part (c):
P(X < 1.50) = (1 / (3.00 - 0.5)) * (1.50 - 0.5) = (1 / 2.5) * 1.0 = 0.4
Now, calculate P(X > 1.50):
P(X > 1.50) = 1 - P(X < 1.50) = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6
So, the probability of more than 1.50 inches of rain for the month is 0.6 or 60%.
QUESTION NO 2

To find the percentage of observations within certain ranges in a normal distribution, we can
use the properties of the standard normal distribution (z-distribution) and the z-score.

a. To find the percentage of observations between 55 and 65 in a normal distribution with a

mean (μ) of 60 and a standard deviation (σ) of 5, you need to calculate the z-scores for both
values and then find the area between those z-scores in the standard normal distribution table
or using a calculator.

First, calculate the z-scores:

For x = 55: z1 = (55 - 60) / 5 = -1

For x = 65: z2 = (65 - 60) / 5 = 1

Now, find the area between these z-scores using a standard normal distribution table or
calculator. The area between -1 and 1 represents the percentage of observations between 55
and 65.

You can look up or calculate this area, and it's typically about 68%. So, about 68% of the
observations lie between 55 and 65.

b. To find the percentage of observations between 50 and 70, you can follow the same
procedure as in part (a), but with different z-scores.

For x = 50: z1 = (50 - 60) / 5 = -2

For x = 70: z2 = (70 - 60) / 5 = 2

Find the area between these z-scores in the standard normal distribution table or calculator.
The area between -2 and 2 represents the percentage of observations between 50 and 70.

The area is typically about 95.4%. So, about 95.4% of the observations lie between 50 and
70.

c. To find the percentage of observations between 45 and 75, you can again use z-scores:

For x = 45: z1 = (45 - 60) / 5 = -3

For x = 75: z2 = (75 - 60) / 5 = 3

Find the area between these z-scores in the standard normal distribution table or calculator.
The area between -3 and 3 represents the percentage of observations between 45 and 75.

The area is typically about 99.7%. So, about 99.7% of the observations lie between 45 and
75.
QUESTION NO 3

To find the dividing point between students who earn an A and those who earn a B, we need
to find the z-score corresponding to the 90th percentile (highest 10%) of the normal
distribution with a mean (μ) of 75 and a standard deviation (σ) of 8.

You can use the z-table or a calculator to find this z-score. The z-score represents how many
standard deviations an observation is from the mean.

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, find the z-score that corresponds to
the 90th percentile. In other words, you're looking for the z-score (let's call it z_A) such that
P(Z ≤ z_A) = 0.90.

The z_A value will be positive because you're interested in the highest 10% of scores.

Once you find the z_A value, you can use the formula for z-score:

z_A = (X - μ) / σ

where X is the score you want to find (the dividing point between A and B), μ is the mean
(75), and σ is the standard deviation (8).

Now, plug in the values:

z_A = (X - 75) / 8

Solve for X:

X - 75 = 8 * z_A

X = 75 + 8 * z_A

Substitute the value of z_A that you found earlier:

X = 75 + 8 * (z_A value)

This will give you the dividing point between students who earn an A and those who earn a
B.
QUESTION NO 4

To solve these probability problems, we can use the binomial probability formula since you
are dealing with a situation where there are two possible outcomes (error or no error) for each
return, and the probability of error is constant at 7%.

The binomial probability formula is:

P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)

Where: P(X = k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes (in this case, errors). C(n, k)
is the binomial coefficient, which is equal to n! / (k!(n - k)!). p is the probability of success
(in this case, the probability of an error). (1 - p) is the probability of failure (no error). n is the
total number of trials (returns prepared).

a. Probability of more than six errors: You want to find P(X > 6). To do this, you'll calculate
the probability of getting 0 to 6 errors and subtract it from 1.

P(X > 6) = 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6)]

Use the formula for each value of k (0 to 6) and add them up.

P(X = k) = C(80, k) * (0.07)^k * (0.93)^(80 - k)

Calculate each term for k = 0 to 6 and then subtract the sum from 1 to get the probability of
more than six errors.

b. Probability of at least six errors: P(X ≥ 6) = P(X = 6) + P(X > 6)

You've already calculated P(X > 6) in part (a), so add the probability of exactly 6 errors.

P(X = 6) = C(80, 6) * (0.07)^6 * (0.93)^(80 - 6)

Then, add P(X = 6) to the result from part (a).

c. Probability of exactly six errors: P(X = 6) = C(80, 6) * (0.07)^6 * (0.93)^(80 - 6)

Calculate this probability using the binomial formula.

Once you calculate these probabilities, you'll have the answers for parts (a), (b), and (c).