RISK

ASSESSMENT
AND
MANAGEMENT

Introduction
Any industrial activity involves some risk or
hazard in terms of fire, explosion, toxic
releases etc. which lead to injuries, loss of life
& property ultimately adversely affecting the
environment as a whole if not managed
correctly resulting
Truly speaking, any industrial installation
should have Zero risk situation, but, it is
impossible to achieve it.

The
potential
accidents are:

causes

Increasing production.
Storage Volume.
Competitive technology.
Use of hazardous substances.

for

Risk Assessment & Risk Management

gives a framework for :
Setting regulatory priorities
Decision Making
that cut across various
environmental areas.

Environmental Risk Assessment may be

broadly defined as a scientific enterprise in
which facts and assumptions are used to
estimate the adverse effects on human
health or the environment that may result
from exposures to specific pollutants or
other toxic agents.

Environmental Risk Management

refers to a decision making process
involving risk assessment, technological
feasibility, economic information about
cost
and
benefits,
statutory
requirements, public concerns etc.
Risk Communication is the exchange
of information about risk.

RISK ASSESSMENT :
It is the systematic examination of an actual
or proposed industrial installation:
(1) to identify potential hazard to occur
&
(2) to identify the possible consequences
from these hazards which would assist in
decision making for reducing risk to an
acceptable level.

ALARP:
Mgmt. must take all measures to
reduce risks as low as reasonably
practicable. (ALARP) and this is achieved
through a technique called Risk
Assessment or Risk Analysis.

What is Hazard?
It is the property of a substance or a
situation which has the potential to
cause harm.
The potential hazards can be of fire,
explosion and release of toxic &
harmful gases.

HAZARD
By hazard we mean any physical activity,
situation or condition with the potential to cause
harm, like:
Human injury or death
Damage to the environment
Damage to physical assets
Loss of production
The words threat and danger are sometimes
used with a similar meaning as hazard.

Hazard Categories
Hazards may generally be classified as:
1. Natural hazards (e.g., Flooding,
earthquake, storm, lightning).
2. Technological hazards (e.g., industrial
facilities, structures, technical equipment,
transportation systems, consumer products,
pesticides, herbicides, pharmaceuticals).
3. Societal hazards (e.g., assault, war, arson,
terrorism,
sabotage, communicable disease).
4.

What is Risk?
It is related to the consequences of
identified hazard. It may also be defined
as the unwanted consequences from a
particular activity.
Risk has two variables:
(a) Magnitude of consequences
(b) Probability or frequency of the
occurrence.
So, Risk = Frequency of the occurrence
Magnitude of consequences

What Is Risk?
An expectation of loss
Always an element of uncertainty
Always refers to future
Usually covers both severity and likelihood of a loss
Usually refers to unwanted consequences

The consequences of an accident may be

classified in different categories, as
1. Personnel consequences
Fatalities
Impairment
2. Environmental damage
3. Economic loss
Damage to material assets
Production/service loss
4. Information loss
5. Image loss(i.e., damage to reputation)

Why Risk Assessment (Objectives of RA):

(1) To prioritize safety investments : All
organizations have limited resources.
Risk assessment can be used to prioritize
risks and ensure that investment is
directed to the greatest risks.
(2) Risk estimates aids in decision making.
(3) Corporate Mgmt develops positive public
relations with employees, community and
the Govt.

RISK EVALUATION:
There are four steps in the evaluation of a
risk.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

Hazard Identification
Exposure Assessment
Hazard Assessment
Risk Characterization

(1) HAZARD IDENTIFICATION:

It is an analysis to determine which of the
discharges from a process or an accidental
release will be a potential danger to public
health. E.g. Chemicals such as CO, HCl and
unburned organics would be established as
potential sources of risk for an incinerator.
The means of identifying hazard is complex.
Various methods are used to collect and evaluate
toxic properties ( properties that indicate the
potential to cause biological injury, disease or
death under certain exposure conditions).

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION:(Cont..)

Methods:
(1) EPI-DEMIOLOGICAL STUDY: Use of
epidemiological studies deal with the
incidence of disease among groups of people.
The study attempts to correlate incidence of
disease like cancer from an emission by
evaluation of people with a particular disease
and people without the disease.

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION: (Cont..)

Methods:
(2) BIOASSAY: Long term animal bioassays
( an evaluation of disease in a laboratory animal)
is a very common method for hazard
identification. e.g. Increased tumor incidence in
laboratory animals is the primary health effect
considered in animal bioassay. Exposure testing
for a major portion of an animals lifetime (2 -3
years for rats and mice) provides information on
disease susceptibility, primarily for
carcinogenicity ( the development of cancer).

(2) EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT:

This determines how much of an emission actually
reaches the receptor. Human exposure includes
ingestion (eating or drinking), dermal contact
( contact with the skin) & inhalation.
These means of exposure are pathways to the
human body. Thus, there is no risk without
exposure.
The exposure assessment attempts to define the
route, amount, frequency and
duration of
exposure of a given population to a toxic
substance. The principal pathways of exposure
generally considered in exposure assessment are
atmospheric transport, surface and ground water
transport, ingestion of food materials etc.

(2) HAZARD ASSESSMENT :

A hazard assessment is a determination of the
relationship between the amount of exposure and
the risk to public health.
A person can drown in water, but that does not
mean that a glass of water is a danger to health.
Obviously, what defines a danger is not
necessarily the presence of a particular chemical
but rather the amount of that substance one is
exposed to. This amount is called dose.

HAZARD ASSESSMENT : (Cont..)

Hazard assessment is also referred to as Dose
response assessment.
Dose is usually expressed as milligrams of
chemical received per kilogram of body weight per
day.
For toxic substances other than carcinogens, a
threshold dose must be exceeded before a health
effect will occur. For many substances, there is a
dosage level below which there is no harm.
However, at some given dosage, the threshold, a
health effect will occur ( or, at least be detected).

(4) RISK CHARACTERIZATION:

It estimates the health risk associated with
the process under investigation.
This characterization gives a number that
represents the probability of adverse health
effects from that process or from a
substance released in that process.

RISK CHARACTERIZATION:(Cont)
Once a risk characterization is made, the
meaning of that risk must be evaluated.
Public health agencies generally only
consider risk greater than 10 in 1 million
to be significant risks warranting action.

MEASURE OF RISK

Though the risks to the people from

industrial hazards may be in the form of
injuries , exposure to harmful releases
etc., risks are generally measured in terms
of deaths (since there is better accuracy
in data pertaining to death).
Risks are generally expressed as
(1) Individual risks
(2) Societal risks.

(1) Individual Risk ( IR) :

This is the risk to an individual person.
It is the probability of death occurring as a
result of an accident at plant or an
installation or a transport route.
A simple way to express an IR is the FATAL
ACCIDENT RATE (FAR).

Individual Risk ( IR) : (Cont)

FATAL ACCIDENT RATE (FAR) is the
number of fatalities per 108 exposed hours.
One person works on average = 7.5 hrs /day
One person works on average= 7.55= 37.5hrs/wk
One person works on average = 37.552wks(yr) =
1950 hrs/year ( Say, 2000 hrs.)
Thus, 1000 persons in lifetime (50 yrs) would work
= 1000502000 = 100000000 i.e. 108 exposed hrs.
Exposed hours is the mean hrs. at work

Individual Risk ( IR) : (Cont)

FATAL ACCIDENT RATE
typically varies in the range of 1 - 30.

(FAR)

FAR of 1 means one fatal accident over

1000 working lifetimes
or,
One fatal accident per 50 yrs. For a site
employing 1000 people.

RISK CHARACTERIZATION:(Cont)
(2) Population Risk (PR) :
This is also known as group risk from an
activity.
It is the relationship between frequency of an
accident and total number of people harmed.
The is often plotted as FN curve showing the
cumulative frequency (F) of accidents and Number
of fatalities( N).

Objectives of Risk Assessment

1.To prioritize safety investment (All organizations
have limited resources. RA can be used to
prioritize risks and ensure that investments is
directed to the greatest risks).
2. To make planning & decision especially for
areas like plant design, plant safety reviews,
preparation of emergency / disaster plan etc.
3. To estimate financial risks.
4. To develop positive public relations with
employees, community and the Govt.
5. To get approval of projects.

Objectives of Risk Assessment (Cont)

6. To compare the estimated individual & societal
risks against acceptance criteria.
7. To identify major risk contributors and to
recommend remedial measures for risk reduction.
8. To carry out cost benefit analysis for the
implementation of the remedial measures.
9. To address land use planning issues including
suitability of location, layout and design.
10. To develop appropriate contingency plan.

What is Maximum Credible Accident

(MCA) Analysis?
It is a tool used to find the maximum potential
damage an accident can cause.
It helps in the identification of most vulnerable
sections of the installation and facilities that
pose maximum possible risk if the hazardous
materials are released as a result of a failure.
This may be due to leakage from a crack or
fracture of the process vessel, vents, pump seals
or overflow of a tank or vessel.

What is Maximum Credible Accident

(MCA) Analysis? ( Cont.)

The extent of consequences arising from the
hazardous substances will largely depend on
quantity released, location, wind condition and
density of population.

Risk Management & Control

After assessing the risks , one recognizes the
courses of actions that would control and
minimize the risks to human health, property
and environment ( objective of Risk Mgmt.)

Risk Mgmt. involves resource

allocation, cost benefit analysis,
acceptable risks etc.

Risk Management & Control ( Cont.)

Risk Mgmt. involves:
(1)Reduction of risks to acceptable limits by
judicious investments.
(2) Relocating the activities on alternate sites /
routes
(3) Taking appropriate considerations when
buying Insurance Policy of installations with
potential high risks.
(4) Preparing Emergency / Disaster plans to
handle effectively any emergency situations
with minimum damages.

Risk Management & Control ( Cont.)

Effective Risk Mgmt. Depends on:

(1) Sound standards of engineering design
must be used.
(2) Quality control procedures must ensure
that all equipment conforms to design
standards and specifications.
(3) All equipment must be inspected,
maintained and tested at suitable intervals.
(4) Personnel must be experienced and
trained.

Risk Acceptance / Tolerance

The result of a risk assessment is a
quantification of risk.
It brings the level of risk that is acceptable to
public, authorities & the industry. But, the
question is how much risk can be acceptable
or tolerable.
The risk from an activity should be judged
against the benefits from the activity, since no
activity can claim to be totally risk free.

Risk Acceptance Criteria:

Since all industrial activities involve risks
including risks of fatality ( may be
employees engaged in the activity or,
common public outside).
When an industrial activity imposes risk
common public, it especially becomes the
concern of regulators to assess the risk &
evaluate it.

Risk Acceptance Criteria: (Cont)

A good risk criteria should recognize:
Level of risk which is so high that it is
considered unacceptable/ intolerable regardless
of the benefits derived from the activity.
(2) Level of risk which is low enough to be
considered negligible.
(3) Level of risk in between that is to be considered
tolerable subject to their being reduced to As
Low As is Reasonably Practicable (ALARP).
(1)

Risks become tolerable when all practicable

measures are taken to reduce risk to ALARP.

Risk Assessment Matrix

Risk Assessment Matrix is a tool
for
ranking different activities / projects in
terms of their potential benefit and the likely
risks/cost in implementing them.
It is a tool that standardizes qualitative risk
assessment
and
facilitates
the
categorization of risk from threats to health,
safety,
environment
and
company
reputation.
I

Risk Assessment Matrix (Cont..)

Likelihood

Consequences
Catastro
phic
(5)

Major
(4)

Moderate
(3)

Minor
(2)

Insignific
ant
(1)

10

Likely (4)

Possible (3)

Unlikely (2)

Rare (1)

Almost
Certain (5)

Risk Assessment Matrix (Cont..)

I

Risk
Score

Risk Description

What should be done?

9 - 10

Extreme

Immediate action required

7-8

High

Action plan required,

senior mgmt. attention
needed

5-6

Moderate

Specific monitoring or
procedures required,
mgmt. responsibility must
be specified

2-4

Low

Manage through routine

procedures