8. Ho. 100-461 Pr. 2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION ON THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE JUNE 23, 1988 PART 2 ae Printed for the use of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 9.8K WASHINGTON : 1988 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office US. Government Printing Office, Weshington, DC 20402 S3il-SCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES J. BENNETT JOHNSTON, Louisiana, Chairman DALE BUMPERS, Arkansas WENDELL H. FORD, Kentucky HOWARD M. METZENBAUM, Ohio JOHN MELCHER, Montana BILL BRADLEY, New Jersey JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, Colorado WYCHE FOWLER, Jx., Georgia KENT CONRAD, North Dakota JAMES A. McCLURE, Idaho MARK 0. HATFIELD, Oregon LOWELL P. WEICKER, Jr., Connecticut PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico MALCOLM WALLOP, Wyoming FRANK H. MURKOWSKI, Alaska DON NICKLES, Oklahoma CHIC HECHT, Nevada DANIEL J. EVANS, Washington Darvt. H. Owen, Staff Director D. Michaet Harvi Chief Counsel Frank M. Cusuine, Staff: Director for the Minority Gary G. Euisworti, Chief Counsel for the Minority apCONTENTS STATEMENTS Baucus, Hon. Max, U.S, Senator from Montana. Bumpers, Hon, Dale, U.S. Senator from Arkansas Chafee, Hon, John H., U.S. Senator from Rhode Is Conrad, Hon. Kent, U.S. Senator from North Dakota. Dudek, Dr. Daniel J., senior economist, Environmental Hansen, Dr. dames, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Stud Johnston, Hon. J. Bennett, U.S. Senator from Louisiana... Manabe, ‘Dr. Syukuro, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Moomaw, Dr. William R,, director, Climate, World Resources Institute. Murkowski, Hon. Frank H. ay Oppenheimer. Dr. Michael, senior scientist, Environment irth, Hon. ‘Kimothy E., U.S. Senator from Colorado. Woodwell, Dr. George M., director, Woods Hole Rese APPENDIXES Aprenpix I Responses to additional questions... Aprennix II Additional material submitted for the record.... Neer am 161 188GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE THURSDAY, JUNE 23, 1988 U.S. SENATE, ComMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES, | Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:10 p.m., in room SD- 366, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, chairman, presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. J. BENNETT JOHNSTON, U.S. SENATOR FROM LOUISIANA The Cuarrman. The hearing will come to order. Last November, we had introductory hearings on the question of global warming and the greenhouse effect. We listened with mix- tures of disbelief and concern as Dr. Manabe told us that the ex- pected result of the greenhouse effect was going to be a drying of the southeast and midwest. Today as we experience 101° tempera- tures in Washington, DC, and the soil moisture across the midwest is ruining the soybean crops, the corn crops, the cotton crops, whe) we're having emergency meetings of the Members of the Congre: in order to figure out how to deal with this emergency, then the words of Dr. Manabe and other witnesses who told us about the greenhouse effect are becoming not just concern, but alarm. We have only one planet. If we screw it up, we have no place else to fo. The possibility, indeed, the fact of our mistreating this planet by burning too much fossil fuels and putting too much CO: in the atmosphere and thereby causing this greenhouse effect is now a major concern of Members of the Congress and of people every- where in this country. The question is what do you do about it. Well, the first thing you do about it is learn about it, what is happening, why is it happen- ing, how serious is the problem. Then we must begin to address this very serious problem. The leader in this problem on this com- mittee has been Senator Tim Wirth from Colorado. Working with him, we have included some $3 million in the energy and water ap- propriation bill to begin our studies, and it is in this committee where the lead investigations and hearings will be held. It is safe to say that this problem is not going to go away. It is not like a stock market crash which corrects itself in a matter of weeks or months. The problem is going to only get worse. It is not. going to be easily correctable, and once we begin to find the solu- tions, we know those solutions are going to be both expensive as we @2 od alternate fuels and are going to involve massive international efforts. So, as we begin today, we are doing so with a consciousness that this is not some esoteric study of little interest to the ordinary citi- zen of the United States. This is not some economic study on some- body’s theory. The greenhouse effect has ripened beyond theory now. We know it is fact. What we don’t know is how quickly it will come upon us as an emergency fact, how quickly it will ripen from just simply a matter of deep concern to a matter of severe emer- gency. And what we don’t know about it is how we’re going to deal with it and how we're going to get the American people to under- stand that perhaps this drought which we have today is not just an accidental drought, not just the kind of periodic drought which we have from time to time but is, in fact, the result of what man is doing to this planet. So, with that, I would like to turn the Chair over to Senator Wirth who will be chairing these hearings and leading our commit- tee on the subject of global warming. And I turn the Chair over to -him with our thanks for ‘his leadership in this area. [The prepared statement of Senator Johnston follows:]STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE J. BENNETT JOHNSTON JUNE 23, 1988 I am pleased to welcome you to this afternoon's hearing on the Greenhouse Effect and policies for controlling global climate change. Testimony presented last Noveaber, in hearings befor tHis Committee, contained sobering predictions regarding the degree and pace Greenhouse hearings will elaborate on two of global warming. Today particularly striking facta; the first is the rapidity with which the problem of global climate change is entering the pubjic and politicst in projected y and habitat 7 and the second is the dramatic decre: conscious: time before the effects of climate change, sea level rij degradation begin to be felt. ‘The current drought situation teaches ua how important climate is to the nation’s social, economic, and physical well being. ‘The United States is currently mobilizing its political and financial regources to grapple with the enormous agricultural devs st portions of the United States. spell over the midwest and south The present drought graphically illustrates only a small portion of the scenario which could transpire if global warming and climate change predictions are accurat: Taking the proper steps to control the degree and pace of global sy. The policy choices that will need to be made warming will not be involve critical political and economic decisions. These hearingsshould spur us to once again examine the strong links between energy Policy and the greenhouse effect. The burning of fossil fuels is a : major contributor to the greenhouse effect. However, no one believes that we can end our dependence on these fuels overnight. Nevertheless, the United States must make a concerted effort to 2 garbon increase its use of energy sources that emit relatively 11 «We must revive our nuclear industry by dioxide and other trace gai developing a new generation of passively safe, economical nuclear reactors. We must push even harder to adopt commercially available arch ures and we must generously fund more rei energy efficiency me: A with: and development efforts in this area. We must also proc: research that can lead to cost breakthroughs in fusion, solar, and other renewable energy sources. effect is implicitly We muat remember also, that the greenbou! Linked to r 1 Protocol on jource and environmental policy, The Montri @ ari encouraging sign that we are working in the right ure that this CFC emissions direction -- we must take all possible measures to Steps are already underway in unprecedented agreement is a success. the Senate to encourage the United state to work toward strengthening ' out of chlorofluorocarbons. Some have called for the Protocol’ s phi a similar Protocol to address the potentially more serious issue of global climate change and warming. However, it is clear that an international! agreement to control Co? and trace gas emissions will be é even more problematic. I am looking forward to today’s hearings to provide some insight into the formidable task the Committee and, in fact, the nation, must a focus for the discussion of face. I hope to use today’s testimony es near-term global change policy a Congressional agenda that addre: options.5 STATEMENT OF HON. TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, U.S. SENATOR FROM COLORADO Senator Wirtu [presiding]. Thank you very much. We greatly ap- preciate your farsighted direction of. the committee dating back a long way when we first began to think about this, the hearings that were held, and also your great help in assisting in getting funding in this current appropriations cycle that I think will do a lot to not only help the research that is going on, the collection of the data that has to be done, the standardization of that data, and beginning to get that information out to a variety of communities in the country. We thank you very much for giving me this oppor- tunity. In the last week many of us have been seeing firsthand the ef- fects of the drought that is occurring across the heart of the coun- try. Meteorologists are already recording this as the worst drought we have experienced since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930’s. The most productive soils and some of the mightiest rivers on earth are literally drying up. Let me cite just a few examples. Already more than 50 percent of the northern plains’ wheat, barley and oats have been destroyed, and the situation could get much worse. On Tuesday, the Mississippi River sank to its lowest point since at, least 1872 when the U.S. Navy first began measurements. And in my home State of Colorado, peak flows are among the lowest on record, and reservoir levels are also alarmingly low. We must begin to ask is this a harbinger of things to come. Is this the first greenhouse stamp to leave its impression on our frag- ile global environment? I understand that Dr. Hansen will provide testimony this afternoon that points clearly'in that direction. The scientific community has done an outstanding job of compil- ing and analyzing mountains of evidence about global climate change. As I read it, the scientific evidence is compelling. The global climate is changing as the earth’s atmosphere gets warmer. Now the Congress must begin to consider how we are going to slow or halt that warming trend, and how we're going to cope with the changes that may already be inevitable. In essence, this is an issue that has moved from the world of sci- ence to the Policy arena in the United States: and throughout the world. All of us must begin to face up to the fact that if we contin- ue emitting vast quantities of the greenhouse gases, we’re going to face a global temperature rise larger than anything experienced in human history. The purpose of today’s hearings is to examine more closely the prospects of a warmer world and the implications of such a world for public policy. And as the drought conditions have clearly dem- onstrated, those considerations stretch across the public policy spectrum. The Energy Committee must move aggressively to exam- ine how energy policy has contributed to the greenhouse effect and the kinds of changes in energy policy that may be needed to re- verse the trend of increased emissions of carbon dioxide, a key by- product of the burning of fossil fuels.6 I hope that today’s outstanding witnesses will join the committee in this process, and I know that we can count on your counsel in the future. Today we have some of the finest researchers on the issue of climatic change, but before introducing them, let me ask my colleagues if they have opening remarks that they might like to make. [The prepared statement of Senator Wirth follows:]q Tim Wirth 4 Senator Tim : NEW'S RELEASE. = ‘US. Senate + Washington, D.C. * 20510 von FEUER: TUS, TUE 23s 1808 * (202) 224-5852 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE TIMOTHY E., WIRTH JUNE 23, 1988 I want to begin by thanking the Chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Conmittee, Senator Johnston, for his leadership on the allied {ssue before the Committee today, global warming and the so- “greenhouse effect." Senator Johnston's assistance in convening this rings I chaired last fall, has been hearing, and the two days of hi instrumental in focusing this Committee's attention on these profoundly important issues. I also would like to welcome Senator Chafee and Senator Baucus, who have consistently demonstrated their leadership in the effort to protect the global environment. In the past week, many of us have been seeing first-hand the effects of the drought that is occurring across the heart of this country. Meterologiste already are recoding this as the worst drought thie nation has experienced since the Dust Bowl days of the 19308, The most productive soils and some of the mightiest rivers on earth are literally drying up. Let me just cite several examples. Already, more than 50 per cent of the Northern Plains! wheat, barley, and oats have been destroyed and the situation could get much worse. On Tuesday, the Missisaippi River sank to its lowest point since at least 1872, when the U.S. Navy fixet began measurements. And in my home state of Colorado, revoir levels are peak flows are among the lowest on record and x alarmingly low. MORE,PAGE TWO" We must begin to ask: is this e harbinger of things to come? Is this the first greenhouse stamp to leave its impression on our fragile global environment? I understend that Dr, Hansen will provide testimony today that points clearly in that direction. 5 ‘The scientific community has done an outstanding job of compiling and analyzing mountains of evidence about global climate change. As I read it, the scientiffe evidence is compelling! the global climate is changing as the Earth's atmosphere gets warmer. Now, the Congress must begin to consider how we are going to slow or halt that warming trend, and how we are going to cope with the changes that may already be inevitable, In essence, this is an issue that has moved from the world of science to the policy arena. All of us must begin to face up to the fact that if we continue emitting vast quantities of the greenhouse gases, we are going to face a global temperature risé larger than anything experienced in human history. The purpose of today's hearing is to examine more closely the prospects of a warmer world and the implications of such a world for public policy. And as the drought conditions have clearly demonstrated, those considerations stretch across the public policy spectrum. The % Energy Committee must move aggressively to examine how energy policy has effect, and the kinds of changes in contributed to the the greenhou energy Policy that may be needed.to reverse the trend of increased emissions of carbon dioxide, a by product to the burning of fossil fuels, and 50 percent of the greenhouse problem. More,PAGE THREE é 5 es will join the committee I hope that today's outstanding witn in this process and that we can count on their counsel again in the future. Today, we have with us some of the nation's finest researchers on the issue of climatic change. Michael Oppenheimer, Senior Scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund and George Woodwell, Director of the Wood's Hole Research Inatitute, two of the three American participants and major contributors to the report we are examining today from the Beijer Institute, James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose climate data have shown that four of the warmest years on record have occurred during this decade. Dr. Syukuro Manabe from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Daniel Dudek of the Environmental Defense Fund, both of whom have done extensive work on the implications of climate change for agricultural patterns. And Bill Moomaw of the World Resources Institute, who has done extensive work on 8 that should be considered to address this the public policy respon: problem, We thank you all for coming._ pea eer rod Aer ren nit a atu Pr Us Aer aa aac sce opie Fras Puu A mm te tvs for ly 42090 Sher concer has Site he far Ca Tne fe sais ut ees Bate. Phi ‘ii Yo ond Bo hid sa Pf bea 25 stom nae mor earn ipo ton tend treat 0 reed otha ut ole te ho Sep fool cman oker Tae ta on Strat Voeund Niche d Cope al eae ono Th fae ered fore "hh. people ho dromed temo bam nanetest laa Tees be of an frm the tainted, Washi De ett the frat now te hod Sepa efor OP rag doe of Sotphnwnpeanes The sort of th tid eh tea she 7 fenecumse 30Rh) day toed he none Marque, Mock Np Ci ner ha threat had bee weet ‘am tan The nomen’ hand tee me dave Calor | naive 2 Fat non eat Prot. shee Seon ad fomtns ane no | efamdnerne wma gy | RICORDNOM FRIMIOLSCIMATCCHASGLSSLUGISE IT INES SMA bw tes he 8" hs fect gto Shatin fy Lae faci Soi the gut fo ght fat hee oman tiny RR HIME yStuS AME The fintof tee eats the pa fle Sime Fe bounce, annowced from Sonunart Arch? Love at cauaed bs the Feleane of blocs hed of he La ved pce The se pit Thavepint his been es: snwathonsimiatheatninphere These fire deme 1 Blamed oi a combine Wapstated fom varefuls co mran-eade chemical compownds | tion of seven weal tain ohel sidered fyecant for sur un: mite commonly valled CFCs ate serwang and ulriole sadianon SI es hy wide sanity of arn ane a frente amd cnn ed) She baseball the tnchovaye fuses wsisaywepinWinatd the 2h! century nthe manulasture af everything ftom Int the New York More 3-1 In Lor Paillants ute sturaing cr ates pilloes hv polystene fees for Fast cles the Dor gutneayuind the sphere Avid aio which steals han fsa) Ever since tNeit amventin 0 Cateors Goons tcheled forthe inual ada devastating imypict «9 puts of quite 60 yeats age CEC hase been Si0urm su) nas pouponed because cisietn Nonih Ameeics cenal tae tingintatbesteatosphete When they ofr vs Tope and wuthers Seamdinasia mone BM the proevtive emeer ivi a the | Sarum rhe meuther Afer Iavingse manifesta othe pollo Dats Sine ayes = 10 to 20 les up thes Sah of dernction i it wae alone eects tnd 19 be epwnal Tus Mt eae ell because their chlorite cea te Fate Cove Hurricane Bruce es ex andvntetelated pollutant ihteatstom ponent devours. the moevvles that Devel to move ont tose dung the even lager. and they may yon aft fv the thin vne shell As hat layer fcr tn the Mules, Soutinea and We om global wale Both have the 8 depleled. stronger and stoner Wis condurans ern vernal sears polenisl of wteaking salastiophn dines of ultraviolet (UV) cation nels Change on the eaiths climate aid om the sun ate able tp peneteate ts one the 1th suffice shin diseases and one rat rout and dare a alaverrodianion12PhD at the Univers of Chane Rossland sme 64) canned sn wists J tonal vevtaton erate cer Uy Te 1968 he Became shan servis of Cahn tt tevine Whe he tebe an Ann Leys Go 0 Hemp seagtnan Foes (anardate uy 1072 be Ate AEC sonferense Rowe eared tat Dynes Lovelock the huaky Mini acxannt Devt esis as the athe of he Tat al fe rntred ange none sess po es ej the pal he an isk swpgeted that CFE [ ratte peomanved shew mrss J aM Razand Remand wan argued | tse rete fe had Disine hich ny se of the se Iorllasranbors ay well Wat on ebemal asd he oun | tapi teicieang sta theese | | twa fateof CT Cn the atonsphete When Roslind regan hisses tion a UC trie nh Oxtoher FTN the samt peta tion of FCs nthe US fay ain the sider of R50 alloy Prawns BuPoor which wd them on Ser the wade mame Eom ws the fo" domestic manulictrer Res Lind ‘ids ant researsh wath Marve Nt Tina punta tadent who hat ust evened Bis Ph D hom erhels By Doeveiber of that yea the te 1 tenting had wompleted thet revesto and n June 1974 they published 3 fer in Natwe ‘The results of the te searh wete starting bt as Rowland Thete was no moment hen U Tyust came home one fight and eld my se. "The work 6 ring vers well but o0KS ike the fend ofthe world yelled “Eureka Briefly pul Rowland and Molina repovted that CHCS were being aed forthe ensironment in seasiy mress tng aimounts that they arent de sttoged inthe topogphere tthe er Bimwapherel and tha they surive Or many decades. sly Sifung up Ie stratenphere Once CFCs teach the 13 ratnphere thon CX gations the EYE eye thal leo ll the Sonmjeney thst wad soles she CHC SP ad fen elena ie the ne Ths nt ae gery satus: 198 ee ill he howe sn fe shaw testis am whats a snpte pete. ahd thas the eMQt the Inova ton ca his bnaadeeds fa ayer oud capt ten Trias of leven tthe ents mee fare Lave Bay Rerun tuner Isfive ests fle awh tt thao camo he Ste Sit en onnaitee at tasiomnulial Pathe ‘roe ts conta savate by the twee al the Sse Sane sation of sight si see a ry Wastes atl Toate Sh face Bat ench tiie sibvie thins stanies that vert CFE fom relaels few dksomyned CTC. ply epery san destiny ote sister ovine and CHOATE fave Wem a the Thin thesancansivate Hheovoow Ly Wiaes tibonytene thal ange fn 38 crinahitine antaoionptinn Hinata ta 13D seats 8 13D 3e sect He feaistcsshes teen inmt alate me wad se scm ase tthe mighansunphcre snes the os Manges the atmenphere meas at frahwed The liver itt abv bie HCTC 12) tal tlsases ae co ner the ples fon ls allover the wert aig DILOKISIATOS 40 HHL CSE OF FOIE LUHES HAVE CAUSED HUGE4 est aesctalsentinies natn texcittn an nity Wal yc ahe pi atuon fhe Rvatal> gulf the abot of soa The Wk pane CHC The cu Cin Nats Tension Potamine sasened sent ist af eyperto ts eaane the pr he Henn 1977 Uhofotlaing sear Cana Ahr Swan an the US bag the neste He simawtand puget teat hehe OS aly tna 1 few eter counties have fehowed tush eset H say be hist eat Jatamdc te fiw seu saysotll dhe asta sunt uted HS oe tat: nest ioe there ta a the Taso way sult bay Detonne Fanny Ih Miah UNS fey ee cht yeaty of santiaied UN sine Beste Sired meetings the US siMl 20.1 fy pulistah ata wef the P The Wa feat Thee Last INORTASE OF CARBS DIOXIDN, PROMOTING TIE GAG SHOLSE ECE fe srs wit he Muda Anta Sosey wal had bec toute mse ithe sie bye alae He A irotm ae 1997 Hand beresane Teves Septet sunned oP NASA, et the that cy fad et Hosen ft the Be the way auqeient wats to OAR hte seinen seh he made bial fad iaryaited nh seat a fen the se tne te Fa foie auiete Hat the avone dhe Inght te vedo 13 Butte wen ity ugh the wnigue weather ay fhungsalase Anata were a mite fivtor I Agrane 1, hid Aranitctn. Adimnnstti ted a Ihe Antaste to stay Toei el Fp Pesagova Hive past August Shiv note nom murs bo bs ener apie | tmont act dae ic tele recauned p | inate sabnine oan € > Peeing the coh ad she fr Ban teh ate (srletn “lst ovnnetable Ft here skin ance cram fm a cancer sn this goumtty Mh tested S90 000 cer Sous cash yet stad pbinhed by the Faxiranoventa Defewse Hund projects that hy 2028 [emcee it bean adda 4s | tosdenes fakin sancer over the pee ent tate a eas re Fo som Swe derietnot Cturasts ate atcther thea peed by ehvated UN lovely S08 alert Resentch 0he ect UF gat onthe ae ster has fe dt ssulyects Ascondung conpteonn festimony by Br Margaret | iphe hasta of the deprinent sf 0 Deg at the Us ess Tete 9 comb nse that he UV ayedanage a ref untin {el nd nthe skin the tne Sell sid that aha damage tes Saw of suppres mPhase Send of the appiopiate sinaste Fe Syevse Thay although the ta a ces tthe UV ration the re Wanskapnal upprentot 15 sells guviate throug the fy Nets snankin sat kt pete monty wilh guanine sgaminns hase Sts that UN gadation van damage fa he aime xsd can The tent for santage to eRetation star high De Ala evsonuea a pe eso af phvsloncal esas AAMC Uinversuy of Maughan repeats that show soe pists may apt ke levels nf UV adatom ane Stimting vention am lea ares fon! tediwed pico Sip the Inter render thers ioe oma ave adsersly af naierable es fected ty utcrcaved Teves In tet highe edit oF setae OV rast nd rane hewn Liver. the vel a 420 28 asin pres Unlike Jeought wt other gen apically festticted sresses in reise i UY wold aflest at areat of he eek smutaveonst.” Fesamut sys Fen small reductions a top eld on gla Riss wuld Toad ‘Atmest alt kowalede othe effects af LUV on plans comes from lahes of eullvated ceops bat these asst k less than 10/7 wf the wuvlds vege than We hase Ie en senation Aepesundocase Inarwescarainly ot the else on the ihe 90" Stine damage nan te Whe a hi eet hed fede ut whet ‘earth Fas undergone se mage hangesanclinate The testa 2 Satin peru row ts seen years HM) and 12S" wher ser Ake bil tenperatanes ete atv the afm av they ate ne Sptintly ware Date time Bley and Ans wete poset tn Iceland ana Sieyatas Toe fahed mF agland where se les tswere gradually sung Un Bel tum the sing ea made Bruges frow same 1S les inland. & seaport ‘Around 95, the Vibings be ean to solonize Greenland, SShich had teen dhcosered by Ens the Red) But ty the end of he 13th century Atctw Hea e haa spread through Greenland’ waters and had hecome sich a ‘savgational havatd thal the vol mies died ost The medieval warm epoch vas sn followed Dy the Ute Tee Age. hich Iaiied fomDiat Forecast abut 1550 40 1850. during which the shoal climate wa yaa 1 (FI cooler than now In India, the monsoons often failed 10 attive ‘rompling the abandonment in 138K of the great cy of| Trove over several times 49 the Ise 1500s Year-round snow, now absent covered the high mountains of Ethie fla The vineyards of northern France Sredoft Some screntsts who have sued the earth's climatic cycles believe that around 1700, when the Lie tee Age began sts aradual decline. the earth ‘sung int a period of 1.00 years of warming This rut take into account the effect of umnorural agents, such athe i creasing concenurations fof carbon dioxide, ni trous oxide and other freenhouse gases inthe simosphere ‘What's happening is tis Ligh from the sun passes. through these Uuansparent gases 10 the arth, where the short wave radiation tight) iation (heat! The heat tvs from the earth and cordunanly would escape rato space However. treenhouse gases absorb {he long-wave radiation Thus. the more these gases accumulate in the aumosphere, the more heat they absorb. and the watmer the earth be: comes. Intime the plan ce ui come to be tke 4 greemhoue—or a car parked wath ts windows vponasunny day ‘The theory that in creasing levels of carton dioxide could cause this areenhouse effect was fist advanced in 189669 4 Swedish physicist and chemist named. Svante ‘Authensut However the 16 shot Wo tn 198K when Chirk DKeeliog. chemist and poe of wean phy at the Seip lst of Oceanography. heeAN MessUENE IL moophene carbon dove on Matt arn Hwan Sie Keeling anes sents bean the stuventaton of Ue gas hay anctensed every year jrmped feces 31S ruts pet millon Ant 19H 1 389 0) 1987. a 284 crease fin the levels that a1e That to ive Beem present Pere the mdusinal age The svtease a testable ns 3. sombination of he urning of Gl fel an the destin tion of forests whish serve a8 reser new ugianve TOO wis nf sats pet sure and hes fist 40 yeas at cated that as sch ay hal te wots fests have beet dense! Cavy yaneal ei soe he thot af catson dvnke w eapavted tenhaboe 0 Th sates giccatane fines CFCS an tent ee sie ie whan tives Thee are nodes the dente Uh of he evans Lae 108 the ae shite Xb ths iene Re fas vex tthe minphere Th CF cer cast dhovater and they ab sort heat Mesnared a the sane of atts pot lon CLC somentations ate pen raietecg eee magical fal they ae xiuondinanty effective heat amie CFC. I1 oe CEC: um ay 8 mich eat sy 1000 evulevfcurhandiosnle Ain CC Krol ate mereasing st the tate $4 osn-lyel sone abt aay is sceuone gas 108 foemed by the Jt of sunt a toe wade find hydrcirton rlltonts ennted prematiy by cars and wacks We cit we Orage has a $l ypersinally Swategphere wone protects We by Stuesing the earth fren harnfol UV ahah oUSG-RNEL evo 18 LOM ine US alove, acceding 8 st0d) se by the Ensivonmientat Dsfese tak ovone pellion vs response toy annual loses of 35 much 48 2 bh lot im wheat corn, sewbeans and ot toe Ozone produced on earth cannet te used 10 replenish the ozone layer the sratosphere because 1 ha 2 limit fd fe span before combining into viner chemical substances Therefore ots last long enough to accumu: Ss amounls.sigificant enoveh replace whats being lost in the suatosphere In the last 100 years. the global mean temperature has. gone up by aU OSC Even If all emissions of reenhovse gates were CU off lodsy mst emissions already make anciher *'C aerease likely by 2080 Accord {o computer model esas done Or Veebhadran Ramanathan, an ‘onetphene sents atthe University cr Chucage. the global average surface Temperature cold increase by a tat | of a much a8 45 on the neat 40 ‘ears based on cuttent eves af peer tte extemisions That would make ‘he eatthalmon a8 hot 28a during © Creiacerus peti. the age of the “sau, 100 million years 380 Mind Sha the glotal average The sil esx from the mdlattudes to tne pes where wintertime averages | utd te 1 phe! than nos Hmen. of NASA Guaddard Cen: Ist snes climate nadel that predicts temperate mctease averaging FI Cintne US he the mide ofthe st wus: Heatiohas created comput ade una predeis vemnerature en wv Dikt Fortecas? ea crease (or « number of US. cites By round 2050—sive or take a ewe of ‘Seeades because the rol of the cota in not yet predictable and could de- lay the warming effect Washington, DC. which according «0 Hansen's roel has about 6 days a year when the temperature exceeds OTF, wll have #7 such days, Omaha, with 37 ays over 90° now. will have 86. New York, with 15 now will av ¢ 48. Chi ‘cago. with 16 pow. ill have 56, Den ‘er with 33. il have 86; Las Angeles. ‘wth, ill have 27: Memphis. with 63. will ave 145; Dallas which has 10. have 162. Hansen's model similar Ty shows am increase i 100 days Washington goes from 1 8 yest (0 12, ‘Omaha from 3021, New York from 0 04, Chicago from O06; Denver from 01016. Los Angeles fom 1104 Mem his from 410.42, and Dall from 19 ton ‘Other discusions of the practical impacts of greenbouse warming Nave focused on possible indirect effects such as changes of sea level sorm fee- ‘quency and drought.” Hansen says “Wer believe that the temperature changes themselves wll substantially modify the envitonment and have 2 rmayoe impact on the quality of Wife 18 some repions , However the green house sue 8 mot tkely to Feces the ful atenion i deserves uni the Bob al temperate ries above the level of the present natural climate vaniabity {fou model is approximately corvect that tine may be accn—athin the rex decade” ‘Dr Wallace Broecker a geochemst at the Lamont-Doherty Geolsical Observatory of Columba University thanks the situation may be even worse than indicated by models with the supposivon ofa aradual warming over a considerable period of ime "The fants climate doesn't respond in a smooth and gradual way.” he says ‘Rather. responds an sharp jumps “These jumps appear to involve ta scale reorganizatvons of earth systems ans reading of the natural record correct. then we must consider the ps sty thatthe major responses. of the arth system to our greenhouse prover ation will ako occur in jumps whose timing and magnitude are uneven and unpredictable Coping with this ye change is clearly a far moe serio mater than oping with @ gradual steady warming. ‘These meadels are far fom perfect one of them was able to predict the rome hole over the Antari. fr eX mple—but. for sow, they te our best Seurce of information about changes we can expect to see bythe year 2080 ‘The ew isnt pr ‘Climate moving done by Dr Sy ura Monate, an atmosphenc wena at the Natwna! Oceanic and Alm spheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratery in Prince: ton, NJ. ted him to testify before a congressional commer 1 1985 tn ‘silersin Siberia and Canada wil be less severe Because ofthe penetration ff waren, mosiure-nich ai into the huh latitudes, a doubling of atmo sphere carbon diouide oF the equiva Tent mht inceease the rule af river ‘uroff in noethern Canada 208 Siberia by 201040 peccent Ourclimate model lho ndhcates (hat response 0 the Incteased greenhouse gases summer Srooght will become mare Cequent lover the middle eontinenta repens of North Atmerica andthe Eusssan va wnent For example, the male pro dived summer drought a character ved hy diy sl. tedced clus wove and higher surtacevemperaire. which ‘evemble the stuation during the dust poof the 19105 ‘A stdy by the National Academy ‘of Scences suggests that water volume in northern California vers and in the Colorado River wal decline by a5 mich a8 697 This would leave much of the West without ater Southern CCalifocnia would fun dry and be Su {ected toan increased incidence of fre 48 would forets throughout moxh of the West and upper Midwest Within the past 100 years ude ‘tauges on the Atlannic Coast of the US have documented a 30-centime \etoF one-fot ise i sea level Gio ally the average is ctout five inches Models predict thatthe evel will have en by ancsher foot in how lying ‘coastal regunsof the US in 2030 and hy aS much as thee feet in 2100 AC sording to Dr Steven P Leatherman, irestor ofthe Laboratory for CoastalResearch 3 the Uaersty sof Mayland, a leat putt the present 3-level reo the Fast Coos 1s clined by ‘he natural somscing 3d saldence of tale met Mat a least 4 Sachs ne tse has been aed the expansion of warmer sean surface waters dnd the meting of mouniain aliiers triggered in pat by the 0 $C increase m global leamperatare registered dor sgt fst century Sealevel re all po: me wcteased cvustal er0 son "Leatherman says ‘Mready approximately 40 percent of eur sandy «wn Tings os exaing APU sal nourshnient «being {ned to resore beaches but Uhevontsare high" Accotd sng 0 one sty that “ll sexo be published, the cent oF maniawing Fast and (Gulf Coast teaches wll 19 ansahiere from $1010 5100 iuthon A series of acril photogtaphs taken sce 90K for natance. shows hat the Blackwater Na ruonal Waldlfe Refuge on the eastes shove ofthe Chesapeake Bay ane of the mont important Fast CAs wae foal sanctuaries. 1 in a vise of sisegration because of ing sea es fl Human activity can hasten Sach Sestrction Somme ofthe other eeu posed bya fone: to theesfast rie sed lee ‘inde increased salints of deinking Ser saline itrysiom ito ever deltas and euares, which would imped faneriee the nundation of wetlands cypress swamps and adjacent los. fonds snsreased Roding im pupusa teas which would nevessiate. the balding of cetly Aad preston 95: ance of beachesall over the world ‘Then there are shete further dire # Studies by metcorviogst Kerry Emanuel at MIT sadicate that rire seve hurrwanes are kel because of SSatmer ean Sixt storms coal Uv Rw tense fers ys ch 39 60" fe Raduat change an the Aaretic we Shee vould hace sete voneauenses Amaro is 1 af the wold we tals 1s hed ap mount ge Steiot the Amani: we sheets were {iinet completely the global seu eve soul re 1S 10 20 feet No one ev ects thatto happen AL curently po ected fates the greenhouse effect ara hal warming ate so expected 0 havea mayer impact on the Antares Ise set for several centuries Bu mt soe predicted holes inthe wre layer nd as Dr Stanley Shih a sean Wail asexute at Lamenc-Doherty Sud tn a tecent arinle tu Ohare Imupirine “Amaia may be wiht ard im the deck, but wh ca ay the eck not ached. with Nate set luagup the tine? Couple all the preenhnne eects ened ulttaioet tadition he pest sh find we Bive weit HIMMLAL Sst anya sould aps aur wh ste cre cemurqun pret poring ' Site" ape Dr Condon dM IM vmet poevon of gastos Piatt hrs oe ice ena an ce sem ofthe bie Ce tron Siuihcim shanpey ue eimate et devedey il ext pot di tuptve fwes onthe Rave wh ScD oy tating about atlas | ut corporations ind seventy Armagh the sh! ure me abn big estny tt hoger psy that vole instal devekapaent fniine land ane stigation he electri power ent ephrationRISING SLA LEVELS COLID ADVE RS 38. Neary all ofthese Jess ae feing fused oi the notin that the ‘imate the recent pas willacstinge init Ftute This 5 mo Fonger safe assumption In October 1945 the Noid Metealogwal Organization ths International Council of Scent (Chant and the United Nats Fn teomment Programme eomvened a sn ference a9 Villach Avsira it shah rove than #0 seve fom Is con esassessed the stimatic changes thst ould fe fecught abut hy the sss latwn of greenhouse gases The wien tists concladed that wing the shale ofthe recent ps a plan foe the fate isn lagers geal Sump aime the mcreingconcentatioas ogre: house gases ate enpected te caine oe 19 1Y AIICE PORES FHKE LONDON sutcant waniang the slat hnate the nestveiury Isa maiter fue {ess to whine eatiaen of the future imate conditions (0 tmprose. these Dy Michael Oppenhenner.a former Marsaud astrophysicist wh tu se father cies with the Es ‘ttonmetal Defense aid pte ths ssay Were fhing Wind inte a highly tiers faiate These changes are govng allt every human bet and vers coins an the face of the anh and we only ase a Alimmer of shat ee changes il be The atmo sphere rsuneney tos faa gs for metal chem sh mate of oxygen tegen and water \Gsncand help maton the eadianon butane ey Rect et excess UV The unthathable ry that Were aston th ainphet Ba ance Wee shifing the chen a Aanve wi that we have mite jem the stmonpiere ie ad end a fon plond vel while were slat shang the teva slnate of the {HH thn he sleenhoane et and got the simuleaneinly cave ngs fo priory le of Ulvadet gmt tee ameedihe Talk ato the mitmnabdelt sis = we re Filing un debie inthe wimoteve sd the pet wll wan uae ad “The Ge af the 31th tat al desis which devi tneverst iy mike a hoyetess ntl sevens the Reagan Adrsinavatan my done fale to Sead ih the tts at spheris pthaion When the ie has teen ahevsed i han osm lagel at the pring of rola egos 1m the Senate ts Repuinans Jon Chalee of Rinae Islind Roert St {dof Nermons and Dave renter ket of Minnewr and) Denwatats Mas thins of Montana dod Ceviee Mishel! wf Mane ll members of the Emswonesest ard Puy orks ‘Albert Core the Teese Dein Cratos aon a senator ed beats fn the preenivnne eft whe he ma mine Hane HIME ard hey the fst Sureens pendent cand Kae these Heed Care s llngnens Shsins ths etal: unpub Jeet prompeed sslonnst George Will {oehide him G3 somurong mere tmrsuesthatare inthe eyevo the ees forate not even peripheral Aol a Chafee sy Ts snot 3 matter of ‘Chicken Lal eling athe 9 1 fall ing. The meth conten cling wehasea wotlem ascrian probe Fortunately ity ll pnvble 18 ameliorate the Samige Here» aft Se mint Reduce producti of C10 hm 95 Sovldside within the nest tera rare Chafee nd Rains Rave to Sixed tuscan Groin svedxtion Las winter Chafee ld CHC mane factarers I the ss 6 sh-yeat phase vt nan fll 6 anette Use ma tie yar need nd se ‘os how you ll etal tse We aestu pete Sev Cit yon hase 8 ve san equally intensive Sad apie pe Sol ahat all Br rete Se buie y a a {es annually A row sate Koometets 1 0 ley By 400 oes aid Se wt pi nase to feforest om the otder of fo lls jane bike meters pet Sear over gaan edhe Inaire deo 0 bee ental teach Sass Oppendeuser "We eed 9 rata me ‘en sonable othe Mantottan Paste ot ooh wee a une That the sue SiME-PREDICTLD CHANGES WARMING I SIRERI SP_DROLGHT 1S CALHORSIY Jhemcevo atu change Sve os a wha = — — _— ume poliieal and social dslcaton ‘One ofthe most discussed —and feared-—concaquences of the preenboane effet a projected em ea level result Ing lrgey ftom thermal enpancion Like any other guid. water increase in lume then healed. But mt sccntte believe the nye ill be slave gett, om the or de of ph 10 16 ches, malin pe lem muni foe counties wth are pos laane net below sea level, sch we the ‘Netherlands and Bangladesh ‘Geegranhicily. Re greenhouse eects ‘ety ta hay pests optim he gh Lamides of the Noein Hernpere te hicadband frm motth—tooghly el Md of Anchovays snd Se te the Non Pole feedback eet vceniusies iletal wafoonp. an ile ips lade Snow and ice rfst salight ont space. Lecpingterpersten toes ting Tat an the flab warm he Mevsnp Arte 16 CONE Stas forme fesniy hss oto dnd eH Tele sumlighvcremhtong the esting, ‘shit mim oe ean and ce the Southern Hempher ser ie wil aba fel Bu heladsaned Antonie CaP 8 Mvmasiveit averages to ies tick RACE would fake ventures otha F THE WORLD 3:4 whole warm 3° Dy mideentay. she Pipher movihern aanades igh beveise For more sarmer im winierthe eal aver ane men Hmm lenpetatutes nthe Iyer Tautudes cout po up a tone 19 “The fabled Novihwest Pacuge would be pen." ayn Wal Robes of NCAR. "You Shull at fron Todgi ts Europe in hall the me” Masbe se. but Brnh Peto Team and others ate Beginning to Worry shor the Hara of pach celarge. Mat frases of ce that predominate m the Are Mie Oxean~and sceberg. later chunks The the vne that sank the: Tian tha fat off the cass of Newfoundland and Nova Scots The webergs would endan {et spe and outing 8s "The Arctic se caver ctu alo cause prohemr forthe US. and Sosie defense ahinhments ‘The polar 1cec3p of the [Atcue Sex hel uth Soe and Ametican ruslear submarines avoad Secon. The (fest would be mote dasaping to the USSR Because American cohmatines 1a aster and can Want father han thet Souet ccuntepans. they ate ess depen dent on Big places under the iceeay. “The Snel Union would nevertheless appear 10 Benefit sutstaniliy from the ireenhoue eect A nating of € could anid 1s many a 40 day othe rowing 3 Sin miheU SSR. Dots world wilh twice simuch CO nthe stmeaphere alo means {continental interr that conden net the Souet Union would have 10 ‘pend tere of hlons on wigation to take ‘Mivaniae of he anger erowind season How ‘would the US he afected com mercially” Global warming would have range eects the Great Lakes the bus cexetervay ne world Using a comput + model thal precy aS winterSarmune tle Atwunphaen Tasasimen Serene ass ths uci Toes sould fe tive Hl mon st the asad 8s BS nhs Whoy ‘Tht sthe sisal wens The had news (eaters wl fees co panes Shipp sik ae utp en re pram soul sud wil ce te toe MF! mt Renin hue? ats Fee Sell mica tat le deat eye an TRIPS the gs apt prmacter thet S wrt oni Mises whee cme roa Atend. Sopgeiny het ch Bet ened the Great Depo and nied The gees routarm migra i Am Un hase. Whes teers me tea Tx and piece Sieesten cogs wit sue Patt Wor peer: duevtorof ne Ceonetuat Apt Int Cxpetiment Siem mew Hane retantoe eutin in seve im dearate wiper abe Westen Larne sig op te na ee comeuenser of ft wing he {cane evelaeh sl bandmate io'tme sea and wil mat undergo te ne degre of continent dying 3 the U Se Gintds and ne sve Cnn What wi argon European temperate png Stared Mow scene hak the Gut Steam, flowin thaw tf mie om the Canhhesn, shoul conunve to beep Western Core from fering 10 he cen Sens sf Newfound. which Wat ne Mare fatude "Bur Watlce Brocter of Columba Univers Lamon Donets Gentpcal Oberon in Pager New York "ware tha the peemhane ect oui dturh thesia ela athe cxeane in nays at coos be pedted TXe' teatene tha dann fo he o> tment Wt wtehed Ie earns ocean chic rage up sever mn dee ake lime to warm up I ould take 20 1040 Jeane before the weary shi he fl tect gbat wang evar om th els o lob warm ang coun the The Wd and he Siuthern Hemaphere whether af tray Benefit a fet tall The ran Feil cron the equator would mse orth. trad, according 0 tesereh sot Be Tublabed by Syolure Manabe sche ‘ode a1 Panceton® Geophys Fd Dynamics Laboratory Thats food news fov'he parched atans ofthe Sab {thd Chad Sou. ond Eon which Aas wentens 5 esha have swt regis M. Stop sick faa aml exes tll Hope sh ilindst tng say stave Senfesel sn snot: would Bates BS ive sents nl Basen Whe hnate changes a intel Sa ts Emtec Brogan it NEPL repo lun decated tt year ws ler Sonat should wed ‘Chatty sve ae ays We cat dv We santa cathon avant tt toms the wa) ea elm ke Sein Gronks Sealed tna aa Iie atwarbent tens that wk ip CO, msi 8 HR a OTH he ont —— Ina sense, getting up in the morning adds to the greenhouse effect. Everyone contributes. Mf everyone is to blam no oneis to blame. of predoing leary The ment ecient COs seronbere are tees Like omer plants Mey amore CO), using 0 abe fond and hand wood Bot wees ate Beng. flled Atouind the world as cp of $0 acten 4 minute. monty on Brant, West Alc. and Indoneva, according 10 UNEP. Redoung Geloresialion wuld Rep bl teloreanion. oposed accawonaly tint 2 praca an: ser The Oak Ridge National Laboratory tm Teomesie_ estimate that to so the ircenowe eect old woul abe 1.) i fon veres sycamore ees, hich ae pectlly good at souking up COs That an tea roughly the see of Aust Changing the me of fos! fuels can heip Natural gas prnces half the CO of eal and ava beothnds that of el for ihe sine Smount af energy, While sun Iiely te happen. silting comple to atta x tom seal pee cod tstend 6) 20 40-30 year the hime takes fer atmospheric CO} 19 double fom pei dual evel ‘Some elf should come from a, 1987 realy curbing eduction of ehoroNuore- Carbone Released tno the. slmoaphere Thee speuheic chemical ved in mde solvents od elngetanis ea ea) at he simpicr. evn ase hat pres ge Pe fom danpcons So fala Pach Fan cine han estuct at watts the Stpmatoncsomipl, CHC pacha wh [Re hinted Toke Ieee nmin nes eat and prada dup $00 By 19 Unfortunately the CPC apteement 6 ot mudel f etahgcatbin diode Tnthat ine ssangle nditry asthe wmtce Mame Cince rere ty ionp cre cvnemce he shemca duny peed 40 toe eet te pada on cath de ‘de Wiss revi of everyday prnece of Te Uns sence. eiing un 8 the MTR shts tothe greenboure effet Turning on the hates ght uses ect fener fy fon ue desing 10 wa Run aS Soe em the Bulding sou moth may have alded ihe pebiens becane making soncrete pies ofl CO) Lehane cenit Noblame mete hime ner cemersatinn would reduce ca thn dived ene atthe soe Bot sou A tate tw eneace Most alernaline nena) sources sem impracia. for the fmument Wind. geothermal and slat ent By have 0 Tar een cavuales of ow. ot Prue Se hine onfach which have the ed dnadvantage of predocng 3 much arhen dete a foal fuel Nolen enet By, despue welldeetved public concern ahout i safety, may deserve 2 secon ook becuue # praducey no catbon ote LU THESE stratepes seek to buy time Otsiaish tin Beer i ad Just ta the greenhouse eect over 200 year father than 30. Bur an al.out ntemnahinal efor! to reduce COy fmrovons seems sure 10 hit 40) Major Sere, Countries at sand 1 benebt rom {loka warming aten likely to being mich enuhusiam to aerting iL And those that Mand to Wise have trouble viewing ths tant somewhat epecolaive trea ith the Urgency required to call forth expensive fod disruptive countermeasure. W nation don't tite ation, Mick Kelly of the Unveriy of Faw Anaha sugges what husineses might do. “The winners from global warning.” he sas, e got to he tho people who ink ahead of ime and plan The losers ate gown. 10 be those ‘tho tespond only when the ens arrives. fon the spur ofthe moment "For thewe who on 19 Sat thinking DULY 4 tome FORTUNE 107LOOKING AHEAD a 29 WHAT MAKES THE WEATHER SO HARD TO FORECAST How do chmate sentuts brow the greenhouse effect ill bring About the ees tha they predict? They don't know to 3 ta ceruniy. What they do know 1s based on hal & dozen high-powered coenputer simulation pro- rar. called genera circulation models. th North “Amenica and. Europe. Re. searchers feed in equations based on the Jaws of phyaics along wah as umpONS shout clouds tea ee, ocean coment. ‘cil mosture.atmosphene convecion {nd emission of hea om the frowned More compliated things happen in the heavens and on earth, Mowever. han ae dreamt of i the equations of sien toss Even using the. best supercon Dulers none uf the models 1 50 good {hat can sar ih Anown weather ondinons aa gen point im the past and reproduce pecily what has a ‘ened since. To mate the calculations manageable even by computers most of the. models suppase either that the cceans are # shallow. motionies swamp or that they dont ext at ah, Despite That oversimphifeaion an especialy 50. No FORTUNE WL Cm 89-338 0 - 88 - 2 ‘Phutcated computer made atthe Na- ional Center for Almosphene Research (NCAR) in Boulder. Colorado, requires 1S rion eaeultons to advance eedictions single day ‘One bic problem i called gd reso: tion. Chmatologs tio wid Mont ve the site of France, ‘The rid defines France as w single et of numbers. fang te distinguish the cook any north from ‘he sunny der south, In hs 1987 book Chios. James Glech, » New York Tres reporter, ivapned x world con~ red woth vat Jungle gym of sensors Spaced afoot apart and nog 38 alles 10 the top of the amoaphere, Each tent rmessures with great preesion vempere {Wee pressure, umd. and every other Imetcorlogien! variable An snfnitly Powerfol computer processes all the dua. This seemingly perfect moniioring sil could not predict exaely the ther ext month tm Allan “The rzason: The computer would not erect mirofvctuations tha ook Pace In between the seniors. Errors multiply 0 quety that within Bours the eeaiy of weather diveraes from its predicted course, In eflec. You can paver have enough grid uauares to focecas weather accurately Thay varations matter. The Buttery Efe. tnown techncaly as ‘dependence on nial cond fon" fesse ame frm the tMOURN ‘hat 8 buttery appana it wings today tm Nagas could conceivably infsence storms next month in New York ‘While most scents agree that the rcenhoute effect iscoming there are nop das yet to say with absolute ‘conviction what its consequences will be. Ceries a sience are ato ime an the mahing In a profesion where Tentative conclsions require decades ‘worth of da, one swallow docs nok make’ # summer, As recently as the 1970s some chmatolopss were woery- ut bal cooing, because world temperatures had peaked in the 19405 tnd taen declined nto the 19708 Ait pututants such a volcanic and. man- made dust may have Blocked enoveh sung to lower pobal temperatures30 Ave ur 23, VAY LITRE Suk LIMES Ehe New Hork Gimes The Greenhouse Effect? Real Enough. ‘A tierce drought 1s shiveling crops from Texas a North Dakote and has shrunk the MiSsis4ipp to ts lowest levels on record. Dry years are part of {res cycle SCiLare time 1 take seriously another possible inftuence ~ the warming. of the atmos here by wasie gases from a century of Industrial cuivuy: Whether oF not the feared greenhouse ef fectis teal there are several preventive measures ‘orth tekingin their own ‘The greenhouse theory holds that certain waste gases let sunlight but trap heat, which otherwise ‘Nould escape into space. Carbon éioxide has been ‘tesdiy buiding up through the burning of coal and ‘and because forests, which absorb the ga ing destroyed. There's 10 clear prool that the gases have Set begun to warm the atmos: here. But there’ cireursstan i evndence, and some experts Uhuneitis geting stronger For example, four of the last eight years — 1960, 188), 1963 and 1987 ~ have been the ft global suriace temperatures began a century ago, and 1988 ray be another recordhot ye Sul there have been hot spells before, followed by @ cooling ‘According to. computer imulations of the work's el Fe should be more raln inva greeahousesheated lobe. The rain falls Indi ferent places. more at the poles and the equator, Jess nthe mi-latitudes, The drought Ia the Middle inihese projections But It sope far proving that the greenhouge effect as ‘Degun. "AS far'at We can tell, hs Is Cough su mer well within the normal range of va ays Donald Gilman, the Weather Servi Tong (err, te evidence Ix merely indicative. The world has warmed hall & degree cent the last century But the warming 1s less than some computer models predic, forcing defenders of the [Erecnhouse theory vo argue thal the exira heat Ie ‘isappearing into the oceans. ‘With the greenhouse elfect sul uncertain, why take preventive steps, especially since the main ‘one, burning less coal, would be enormously expen: five? One answer ie that Iti may take years ‘Quire positive proof of greenhoute-induted climate change, and the longer society waits, the larger a ‘warming i wll have to adapt tof the greenhouse ‘theory turns ent to be valid. Even & small warming ‘auld produce volent changes in cimate, At worst the ‘Gull Stream, might abi ‘course, fusing to warm Europe Sea level could rise 20 feet tne West Antarctic Ice Cap melts, fooding coastal cities trom New York toNew Orleans ‘Several measures to slow the greenhouse warming. are Worth aking fr other reason 'D Cut production of freans, chemicals used as folvents and felrigerants Important green house gases, they destroy the IMe-protecting oxore layer Protect tropical forests, which not only absorb carbon Gioxide Dut also nourish a rieh Variety of enimal and plant if, (D Encourage conservation of energy and use of 35, which produces half as much carbon Sion at does co 'D Develop chesper, safer nuclear power: nu nts produce no carbon dioxide of acid rain fexpect that the rete house theory will eventually prove true, but fear (0 Insue alarmist warnings ahead of Ue! Their cave ton le Juntiied. But there's an ample cate for tnk- {ng uyese intial preventive measures wen the cast ot uch insurance is v0 1ow and the discomforts of rapt climate change, asthe dough" demon trates, sohigh31 Senator WirtH. Senator Ford. Senator Foro. No. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I look forward to being educated. Senator Wjrtn. Thank you. Senator Conrad. STATEMENT OF HON. KENT CONRAD, U.S. SENATOR FROM NORTH DAKOTA Senator Conran. Well, I would just briefly say, Mr. Chairman, that I come from a state that is being devastated by the current drought. I was just there this weekend, and the pastures looked like a moonscape. The wheat crop is absolutely devastated. And we have been through this before. In the 1930’s we had a similar drought, and I will be very inter- ested in hearing what evidence there might be to indicate that the drought of the 1980’s is different than the drought of the 1930's. I think that really is the central question before us, to establish the record and the case for an increase over time of temperature and what the long-term effects might be. And that’s what I will be look- ing for in this hearing. And I want to thank both Senator Wirth for his leadership on this issue and the Chairman of the full committee for his support of having a hearing like this. It is terribly important to an area like mine that is so commodity dependent. Senator Wirtu. Thank you, Senator Conrad. We are joined today and in this effort by Senator Max Baucus, who along with many members of the Committee on Environment and Public Works, has had a great concern about this and related kinds of issues. Max, delighted to have you here. STATEMENT OF HON. MAX BAUCUS, U.S. SENATOR FROM MONTANA Senator Baucus. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman, I commend you and Senator Johnston for holding these hearings. The more hearings we have in more committees and not get hung up on committee jurisdiction, the better off we're going to be and the more likely it is we will find a meaningful solu- tion to the problem. I sense that we are experiencing a major shift. It’s a like of shift of tectonic plates. Our country not too many years ago was con- cerned basically with economic and environmental problems within the borders of our country. And a few years ago we began to realize that we are economically interdependent with other countries, other peoples, other industries around the world, and our fate is very much tied up with the economic fate of people in other coun- tries. I think there is another shift now, and it’s an environmental tec- tonic plate shift. That is, we realize as Americans that our environ- mental problems in America—the focus must be not only on our own country within the confines of our borders, but also the envi- ronmental problems worldwide. The world is getting smaller. We all are in this boat together. And I think that this hearing and others like it help that awareness.32 In addition, Mr. Chairman, I have a sense of deja vu. It wasn’t too long ago that scientists predicted with their models the deple- tion of ozone in the stratosphere. We looked at mddels in other committees, and what we found is that the models were not accurate, but they were timid. They did not really predict the degree to which stratospheric ozone is depleting. They did not pre- dict the degree to which the Antarctic hole has developed. They did not predict the degree to which ozone depletion is not in the strato- sphere over the Antarctic, but also now over northern hemi- spheres. So, I suggest that if we err here; we do err on the side of action. I think that the scientific models are becoming more sophisticated. They are becoming more accurate. And the old question of, well, do we have enough information, let’s take some more time, I think it becoming more clear not only because of what has happened with the depletion of stratospheric ozone, but because the models and scientific analysis is becoming more sophisticated and more accu- rate that we can be more assured and more confident of moving forward more quickly. I've had a chance to briefly look at Mr. Jim Hansen’s testimony, and I think that his testimony is quite graphic in predicting that this is not just a chance occurrence, that statistically the increase in global temperature is not only in our country, but in Moscow in the Soviet Union and other similar latitudes. It is beyond chance. It is more certain as the predictions are greater that, in fact, the earth is warming up to the degree that the models tend to predict. The answers I think are to inventory our carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas sources. We have to get a better idea of what the major sources are of the various greenhouse gases. Certainly one source is the automobile industry, automobiles. Certainly a cause of the problem is our energy inefficiency in our country. We are one of the most energy inefficient countries in the world. And we're going to have to bite the bullet frankly, with the automobile industry and other major industries to force ourselves to be more efficient and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. CFC reductions help. That is only a small part of the problem. There are the meth- anes, There are carbon dioxide and other gases that have to be ad- dressed. And I very much commend you, Mr. Chairman, for taking this action. [The prepared statement of Senator Baucus follows:]* 33 STATEMENT BY SENATOR MAX BAUCUS ‘OW GLOBAL WARMING I am delighted to have the opportunity this afternoon to testify before the Subcommittee, n this hearing on global climate change. The greenhouse effect, global climate change, and stratospheric ozone depletion are interrelated environmental probleas which pose the greatest environmental challenge that our planet will face in the next decade. I commend you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this hearing and for your Gont inued interest in the greenhouse effect and global climate, change. It is an interest we share. Since December of 1985, members of the Committee gn Environment and Public Works have held nine days of hearings on these issues. Testimony presented at those hearings by leading scientists painted a disturbing picture, Like those who believe the stock market crash of October was a warning on the economy, we must ‘ask ourselves if the drought we are facing is nature's warning to mankind to clean up its act. Or. Wallace Broecker described the problem we face this way: “The inhabitants of planet Earth are quietly conducting a gigantic environmental experiment. So vast and so sweeping will be its impact that, were it brought before any responsible council for approval, it would be firmly rejected as having potentially dangerous consequences. Yet the experiment goes on with no significant interference from any jurisdiction or nation.” The experiment in question is the so-called greenhouse effect - the gradual warming of our atmosphere caused by an overload of carbon dioxide and other trace gases. I like to think greenhouses produce useful things for mankind. However, a global greenhouse will produce very little except more drought, famine, and economic and social upheaval. The warning signs are clear. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 25% since 1900. Methane concentrations have risen about 100% in the last 150 years. . In the last 35 years alone there has been a 30 to 40% increase. The two principal fluorocarbons implicated in the greenhouse effect - CFC-11 and CFC-12 = are growing at a rate of 5% per year. Nitrous oxide concentrations are growing at two- tenths of one percent per year. -Tropospheric ozone is increasing by 1% per year in the Korthern Hemisphere. Elsewhere on the globe, tropospheric ozone trends are not well known. The excess radiation absorbed by these greenhouse gases provides the energy to drive the climate system and after global and regional clinatePage 2 patterns, atmospheric circulation patterns, and oceanic circulation patterns. The projected increases in the greenhouse gases are predicted to cause unprecedented global and regional climate changes. Temperature will increase. Current models predict an increase in the average global temperature of 1,5 to.4.5 degrees centigrade by the year 2030. That is an increase of about 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit in only 40 years. These “global average temperatures” do not accurately reflect local temperature changes. An average temperature rise of only three degrees centigrade could mean an increase of more than ten degrees centigrade at high altitudes in sone seasons. Precipitation will increase. A warmer climate will evaporate more moisture which will ultimately fall to the ground as precipitation. Hence, overall, the globe will be wetter and more humid. Precipitation patterns will change, possibly upsetting agricultural activities worldwide. A warmer atmosphere will melt the sea ice in the polar regions. Since the under lying ocean is much darker than the sea ice, melting of the ice wil) lead to increased solar absorption. This absorption will act as a feed- back mechanism for further ocean and atmosphere circulation change: Current models predict that climate change will lead to the dessication of the continents in the mid-latitudes. In summer, the Great Plains of the United States, Central Europe, and parts of the Soviet Union could ex- perience Dust Bow! conditions. Sea level could rise from one to four feet, inundating our coast lines and contaminating drinking water supplies with salt water. Ucean currents could shift, changing the climate of many areas and disrupting fisheries. The frequency of tropical storms is predicted to increase, as is increased monsoonal rain in the tropics. With the "greenhouse effect", we are not talking about short-term changes. We are talking about permanent and perhaps ongoing change for sone indefinite period into the future. We are talking about a situation where mankind has finally wrestled control of this planet from Nature. It is a responsibility we are ill equipped to assune, We are already committed to some of these changes. Past emissions of greenhouse gases have already committed Earth to warm by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Centigrade over the pre-industrial era. If emissions continue along their35 Page 3 present track, we will have committed Earth to a warming of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade by 2030. These changes may be occurring now. It is expected that within the next few years, we shall actually be able to measure these changes. The nation is in the midst of one of the most devastating droughts since the dust bow! days of the 30's. Orought is occurring from California to Texas to Georgia to Iowa to Mont: Last week I accompanied a group of Senators to view the problems posed by drought in the Northern Great Plains. I can tell you things are pretty grim in Montan Our reservoirs did not fi11 this Spring. Estimates of wheat production show yields are down as much as fifty percent, In a short period of tine, without rain, we can expect major problems with grasshoppers ravaging what crops remain. Over the past few years, the West has experienced devastating forest fires. The fire season started over a month earlier than usual in Southern California. The current drought is responsible for real economic suffering. If the climate has changed due to greenhouse gases, we will be forced to live with these changes and to adapt. As policy-makers, we must find ways to minimize economic dislocations on the one hand. On the other hand, we must minimize the rate of climate change to one we can adapt to. The fundamental question is, should we wait until the problem is actually known for sure, or take steps to address the problem now? I believe we need to move now. We are talking about a problem that has been building up for at least the last century. Each day we fail to set needed policies in motion, the potential for failure increases. The fundamental issue that we face is to develop a strategy to deal with global climate change. The next decade should be a period of intense scientific research designed to provide answers to the greenhouse problem, policy exploration, and adoption of appropriate preventative and adaptive control measures. There are things which we can do now. Reduct fons in the use of coal and gas, and energy conservation measures will reduce the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Reductions in the emissions of chlorof luorocarbons wil) help to slow the rate of climate change, and will help to preserve the Earth's stratos- pheric ozone shield. Both Senator Chafee and I have introduced legislationPage 4 which would eventually phase-out the use of harmful man-made CFC's which are currently destroying the Earth's protective ozone layer. The problem of global warming and ozone depletion have reached a stage that requires a broader and more institutional commitment to internationa dialogue. The focus for this effort should be the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). We need to urge UNEP to step forward with a comprehensive report on global climate change, detailing the seriousness of the problem for all nations of the world. This effort could play a pivotal role in developing an international committment to address this problem. Finally we need to focus the efforts of the scientific community on improving our understanding of the interrelated problems of the greenhouse effect, global climate change, and stratospheric ozone depletion. We need to set the "Greenhouse Effect’ as the number one priority of the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program, and set priorities for our research efforts. We are at a point in tine where we must examine the policy options now. Sone changes in climate as we know it are already in the bank. The magnitude and timing of other changes are still speculative. We must ensure that the scientific research which is started today is designed to improve the information base for policy options. I think it would be useful to spell out some of the means that will have to be considered in order to limit climate change and thus stabilize or reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We know, for example, that we must reduce the emission of carbon dioxide which makes up about one half of the greenhouse emissions. What method should the Secretary of State and the Administrator of EPA consider in this regard? Recent Senate testimony has suggested a number of policies which will have to be considered in order for the United States to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions which account for almost a quarter of the global total. Carbon dioxide emissions are tied to the types and amounts of fossil fuels which we use in our economy. Therefore, controlling carbon dioxide enissions will require changes in the way we manage our energy use in the future. Consideration should be given to improvement in energy end-use efficiency, such as lighting, and across the board in new appliances. The efficiency’ of supply energy technology can also be improved New gas-fueled power plant technologies appear to improve efficiency substantially. A vast improvement of auto efficiency standards for cars sold in the United States must be considered in order to lower the use of gasoline. Pricing initiatives must be considered in order to reflect the “externalities” in the price of fossil fuels. A number of experts havePage 5 Suggested the establishment of a carbon dioxide tax in order to reflect the damage to our climate reflected in the price of energy. Fuel switching must also be considered since some fuels produce much less carbon dioxide per BTU than others. Coal, for example, produces twice the carbon dioxide per BTU as gas. Stopping the destruction of tropical forests - a significant carbon dioxide sink - fs an important step. Consideration should also be given to reforestation, We know also that the complete elimination of CFCs would provide a major greenhouse benefit. That too should be considered. We know that improving the controls on carbon monoxide might contro? the buildup of methane, We should consider reexamining whether nitrous oxides can be controlled through air pollution control technologies. We may need ‘to control the buildup of tropospheric ozone not just locatly, but also on a national basis because ozone in the troposphere is also a greenhouse gas. Dealing with the greenhouse problea is a daunting task. We mist not wait; we must jin now. We are already too late. I think the list of responses I mentioned previously should help us get started in formulating and initiating a response. There is an urgent need to move rapidly towards the development of policies to contro? and mitigate the impacts of global climate change, both donestically and internationally, 1 Jook forward to working with you to ensure that, the United States is prepared to meet the threat of global climate change. I am hopeful that your discussions today will begin to focus our attention on the development o policies to combat global climate change. I appreciate the opportunity to appear before you today to, discuss the major environmental problem facing our planet, global climate change.38 Senator Wirt. Thank you, Senator Baucus. Senator Bumpers. STATEMENT OF HON. DALE BUMPERS, U.S. SENATOR FROM ARKANSAS Senator Bumpers. Well, Mr. Chairman, I won't burden our time constraints here except to say I welcome all of our witnesses here today. Bill Moomaw, who was a congressional science fellow with me when, Bill? In 1976? Dr. Moomaw. Yes. Senator Bumpers. In 1976, and is the pees that is responsible for my deep and abiding interest in both the ozone problem and the greenhouse theory of Dr. Ramanathan, all of which those of us who were born to rule knew back in 1976 was a problem. But we couldn’t get one camera—I see we have three cameras here today—for the hearings we held back then. We had nine hear- ings and had the best atmospheric scientists in the country. Every one of them told us that we were possibly facing a cataclysm in both of these areas. And now we know that the four warmest years in the last 130 years—the four hottest years of the last 180 years—have occurred since 1980. Now, that may be pure coincidence, but my ‘belief is that we cannot afford to assume that. On the contrary, we have to assume the very opposite that we may be facing a cataclysm in the future, much of which is already in place and irreversible. But that doesn’t excuse us from the obligation to take very dramatic action. None of us is quite action to take yet. And Dr. Hansen is going to testify today to what I just said plus some additional things that ought to be cause for headlines in every newspaper in America tomorrow morning because, after all, we're going to have to have a lot of political support for this. Nobody wants to take on the automobile industry. Nobody wants to take on any of the industries that produce the things that we throw up into the atmosphere. They don’t want that stopped, and that’s understandable. But what you have are all these competing economic interests pitted against our very survival. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. . Senator Wirtn. Thank you very much, Senator Bumpers. Before we begin, there are about eight or nine seats down here. Maybe those of you who are standing up behind the table over here might want to come down. There is no point in standing up through this on a hot day or any day. Thank you all. I’m delighted to have with us such a distin- guished group of witnesses. What I would like to do, if we might, today is to start with Dr. James Hansen, the Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose ‘climate data have demonstrated what Senator Bumpers was pointing out, the four warmest years during this decade, and who I believe has a number of other interesting revela- tions from recent research that might set the scene for this after- noon’s discussion. If we could then move to Dr. Michael Oppen- heimer, Senior Scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund; and Dr. George Woodwell, Director of the Woods Hole Research39 Center in Woods Hole; Dr. Manabe from NOAA, Geophysical Fluid ‘ics Labora’ in Princeton; Dr. Dudek, a senior economist with the EDF; and finally Dr. William Moomaw, Senior Associate of WRI, World Resources Institute. All of your statements will be included in full in the record, and we would ask you to summarize in the way that you think would be most beneficial. And after you have all had a chance to testify, we will then go to questions and discussions with the members of the Senate. So, gentlemen, thank you very much for being here. Dr. Hanseh, if ‘you would start us off, we’d appreciate it. STATEMENT OF DR. JAMES HANSEN, DIRECTOR, NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES Dr. Hansen. Mr. Chairman and committee members, thank you for the opportunity to present the results of research on the greenhouse effect which has been carried out with my colleagues at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. I would like to draw three main conclusions. Number one, the earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instru- mental measurements. Number two, the global warming is now large enough that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect. And number three, our computer climate simulations indicate that the greenhouse effect is already large enough to begin to effect the probability of extreme events such as summer heat waves. My first viewgraph, which I would like to ask Suki to put up if he would, shows the global temperature over the period of instru- mental records which is about 100 years. The present temperature is the highest in the period of record. The rate of warming in the Rast 25 years, as you can see on the right, is the highest on record. e four warmest years, as the Senator mentioned, have all been in the 1980s. And 1988 so far is so much warmer than 1987, that barring a remarkable and improbable cooling, 1988 will be the warmest year on the record. Now let me turn to my second point which is causal association of the greenhouse effect and the global warming. Causal associa- tion requires first that the warming be larger than natural climate variability and, second, that the magnitude and nature of the warming be consistent with the greenhouse mechanism. These points are both addressed on my second viewgraph. The observed warming during the past 30 years, which is the period when we have accurate measurements of atmospheric composition, is shown by the heavy black line in this graph. The warming is almost 0.4 degrees Centigrade *by~1987 relative to climatolegy, which is de- fined as the 30 year mean, 1950 to 1980 and, in fact, the warming is _ More than 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 1988. The probability of a chance warming of that magnitude is about 1 percent. So, with 99 percent confidence we can state that the warming during this time period is a real warming trend. — The other curves in this figure are the results of global climate model calculations for three scenarios of atmospheric trace gas growth. We have considered several scenarios because there are uncertainties in the exact trace gas growth in the past and espe-40 cially in the future. We have considered cases ranging from busi- ness as usual, which is scenario A, te draconian emission cuts, sce- nario C, which would totally eliminate net trace gus growth by year 2000. The main Point to be made here is that the expected global warming is of the same magnitude as the observed warming. Since there is only a 1 percent chance of an accidental warming of this magnitude, the agreement with the expected greenhouse effect is of considerable significance. Moreover, if you look at the next level of detail in the global temperature change, there are clear signs of the greenhouse effect. Observational data suggests a cooling in the stratosphere while the ground is warming. The data suggest some- what more warming over land and sea ice regions than over open ocean, more warming at high latitudes than at low latitudes, and more warming in the winter than in the summer. In all of these cases, the signal is at best just beginning to emerge, and we need more data. e of these details, such as the northern hemisphere high latitude temperature trends, do not look exactly like the greenhouse effect, but that is expected. There are certainly other aes change factors involved in addition to the greenhouse effect. Altogether the evidence that the earth is Warming by an amount. which is too large to be a chance fluctuation and the similarity of the warming to that expected from the greenhouse effect repre: sents a very strong case. In my opinion, that the greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now. Then my third point. Finally, I would like to address the ques- tion of whether the greenhouse effect is already large enough to affect the probability of extreme events, such as summer heat. waves. As shown in my next viewgraph, we have used the tempera- ture changes computed in our global climate model to estimate the impact of the nhouse effect on the frequency of hot summers in Washington, and Omaha, Nebraska. A hot summer is defined as the hottest one-third of the summers in the 1950 to 1980 period, which is the period the Weather Bureau uses for defining climatol- . So, in that period the probability of having a hot summer was 83 percent, but by the 1990s, you can see that the greenhouse effect has increased the probability of a hot summer to somewhere be- tween 55 and 70 percent in Washington according to our climate model simulations. In the late 1980s, the probability of a hot summer would be somewhat less than that. You can interpolate to @ value of something like 40 to 60 percent. I believe that this change in the frequency of hot summers is large enough to be noticeable to the average person. So, we have already reached a point that the greenhouse effect is important. It may 0 have important implications other than for creature com- fort. My last viewgraph shows global maps of temperature anomalies for a particular month, July, for several different years between 1986 and 2029, as computed with our global climate model for the intermediate trace gas scenario B. As shown by the graphs on the left where yellow and red colors represent areas that are warmer than climatology and blue areas represent areas that are colder than climatology, at the present time in the 1980s the greenhouse41 warming is smaller than the natural variability of the local tem- perature. So, in any given month, there is almost as much area that is cooler than normal as there is area warmer than normal. A few decades in the future, as shown on the right, it is warm almost everywhere. However, the point that I would like to make is that in the late 1980's and in the 1990’s we notice a clear tendency in our model for greater than average warming in the southeast United States and the midwest. In our model this result seems to arise because the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the United States warms more slowly than the land. This leads to high pressure along the east coast and circulation of warm air north into the midwest or the southeast. There is only a tendency for this phenomenon. It is cer- tainly not going to happen every year, and climate models are cer- tainly an imperfect tool at this time. However, we conclude that there is evidence that the greenhouse effect increases the likeli- hood of heat wave drought situations in the southeast and midwest United Stats even though we cannot blame a specific drought on the greenhouse effect. Therefore, I believe that it is not a good idea to use the period 1950 to 1980 for which climatology is normally defined as an indi- cation of how frequently droughts will occur in the future. If our model is approximately correct, such situations may be more common in the next 10 to 15 years than they were in the period 1950 to 1980. Finally, I would like to stress that there is a need for improving these global climate models, and there is a need for global observa- tions if we’re going to obtain a full understanding of these phenom- ena. That concludes my statement, and I’d be glad to answer ques- tions if you'd like. [The prepared statement of Dr. Hansen follows:]42 ‘THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT: IMPACTS ON CURRENT GLOBAL ‘TEMPERATURE AND REGIONAL HEAT WAVES STATEMENT OF Jamea E, Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studie 2880 Broadway, New York, N.Y. 10025 4 PRESENTED TO: United sea Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources - June 23, 1988PREFACE This stacement is based largely on recent studies carried out vith ay colleagues S. Labedeff, D. Rind, I. Fung, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, G. Russell and P, Stone at the RASA Goddard Institute for Space Studi My principal conclusions are: (1) the earth is varmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements, (2) the globsl warming is now sufficiently large that ve can ascribe with a high degree of confivence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect, and (3) in our computer climate Simulations the grecnhouse effect now is already large enough to begin to affect the probability of occurrence of extreme events auch model results imply that heat vave/drought occurrences in the Southe: Widvent Unig’ States may be wore frequent in the next decade than in climatolo; (1950-1980) statiatics. 1. Gurxent global temecatures Present global temperatures are the highest in the period of instrunental records, as shown in Fig. 1. The rate of global warming in the psst two decades is higher chan at any earlier time in the record. The four werest years in the Past century all have occurred in the 1980: The global temperature in 1988 up to June 1 is substantially warmer than the Like period in any previous year in the record. This 1s illustrated in Fig. 2, vhich showg seasonal temperature anoealies'for the past fev decades, The aost recent two seasons (Dec.-Jan.-Feb. and Mar.-Apr.-May, 1988) are the varsest in the entire record. The first five months of 1988 are so warm globally that we conclude that 1988 vill be the warmest year on record unless there is a remarkable, improbable cooling in the remeinder of the ye. elation of current global warming with the greenhouse effect determination that (1) the warming is larger than natural climate variability, and (2) the magnitude and nature of the warming 1s consistent with the greenhouse warming mechanism. Both of these issues are quantitatively in Fig. 3, which compares recent ot change with climate model simulations of temperature changes expected to result from the greenhouse effect. The present observed global varning is close to 0.4°C, relative to ‘elimatolrgy’, which is defined as the thirty year (1951-1980) mean. A warming of 0.4°C is three times larger than the standard deviation of annual mean temperatures in the 30-year climatology. The standard deviation of 0.13°C is a typical amount by which the global temperature fluctuates annually about its 30° yr mean; the probability of a chance waraing of thr: ndard deviations is about 18, Thus ve can state with about 998 confidence that current temperatures. represent @ real varming trend rather than a chance fluctuation over the 30 year period.We have made computer simulations of the greenhouse effect for the period since 1958, when etmospheric C02 began to be measured accurately. A range of trace gas scenarios 1s considered s0 as to account for moderate uncertaintle frace gas histories and lerger uncertainties in future-crace guy growth ratel The nature of the numerical climate model used for these simulations is described in attachment A (reference 1). There are aajor uncertaint: ly from assusptions about (i) global climate © uptake and transport by the ocean, as discussed in attachment A. Hovever, the magnitude of temperature changes computed with our climate model in various Coat cases {a generally consistent with a body of empirical evidence (reference 2) and vith sensitivities of other climate sodele (ra! 1). The global temperature change simulated by the model yields a varaing over the past 30 years similar in magnitude to the observed warming (Fig. 3). In both the observations and model the warming is close to 0.4°C by 1987, which is the 998 confidence level. It ie importatit to compare the spatial distribution of observed teaperature changes with computer model simulations of the greenhouse affect, and also to search for other globel changap related to the greenhouse effect, for exanple changes in ocean heat con! sea ice coverage. As yot, it is difficult to obtain defintcive conclusions from such comparisons, in part because the natural variability of regional temperatures is much larger then that of global mean temperature. However, the climate model simulations indicate that certain grot characteristics of the greenhouse varming should begin to appear soon, for le, somevhat greater varming at high latitudes than at low latitudes, er warning over continents than over oceans, end cooling in the stratosphere while the troposphere varms, Indeed, observations contain evidence for all these characteristics, but mich more study and improved records are needed to establish the significance of trends and to use the spatial inforastion to understand better the greenhouse effect. Analyses must account for the fact that there are climate change nechenians at work, besides the greenhouse effect; other anthropo- genic effects, such as changes in surface albedo and tropospheric.aerosols, are likely to be especially important in the Northern Hemisphere, We can also examine the greenhouse warming over the full period for which global temperature change has been measured, which is approximately the past 100 On such # longer period the natural variebility of global temperature is re years. larger; the standard deviation of global temperature for the pi tury 1s 0.2°C.' The observed varming over the past century is about 0.6-0.7°C. Simulated greenhouse warming for the past century is in the range 0.5°-1.0°C, depending upon various modeling assumptions (e.g., reference 2). Thus, although there ere greater uncertainties about clisate forcings in the past century than in the past 30: years, the obi and simulated greenhouse varmings are consistent on both of these time scales |. Global varming has reached @ level auch that we can ascribe vith o high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship betveen the Sréenhouse effect and the observed varming. Certainly further study of this Aasue must be made, The detection of a global greenhouse signal represents only ~ a first step in analysis of the phenomenon.45 3. Greenhouse impacts on summer heat vaves Global climata models are not yet sufficiently realistic to provide reliable pradictions of tha impact of grsenhouse warming on detailad ragional cli patterns. However, it is usaful to maka init! climate aodels; tha reaul: ‘At the very least, such studies help focus the vork needed to develop improved clinate models and to analyze obsarved clinats change. One predicted ragional clisata changa which has emerged in such clivate model studies of the greanhouse effect is a tendency for mid-latitude continental drying in the sumer (referenci Dr. Maneba vill address this important issue in his testimony today. tudies have been for the case of doubled atmospheric COz, a condition vhich may occur by the middle of next century. Our studies during the past sevaral years at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies have focused on the expectéd transient climate’ change during the noxt fev decades. acribad in the attachment to my testimony. Typical results from our simulation for trace gas scenario B are illustrated in Fig. 4, computed July temperature anomalies in several years betueen 1986 and 2029. In the 1980's the global varming is anall compared to the natural variability of local monthly mean temperatures; thus the with cool temperatures in a given July 1 almost as grei the area with warm temperatures. Hovever, vithin the area vith coolar tamperatur Afic temparature patterns for any givan month and year should not be dictions for that spacific time, bacausa they depend upon unpre- However, characteristics which tend to rej warrant further study, especially if they occur for different trace gas scenarios, We find a tendency in our simulations of the late 1980's and the 1990's for greater than average varming in the Southeast and Hidvest United States, as illustrated in Attachment A and in Fig. 4. These areas of high temperature are usually accompanied by below normal precipitation. Examination of the changes in sea level pressure and ataospheric winds in the model suggests that the tendency for larger than normal warming in the Midwest and Southeast is related to the ocean‘s response tine; the relativel: slow varaing of surface vaters in the mid-Atlantic off the Eastern United St and in the Pacific off California tends to incraase sea level pressure in those ocean regions and this in turn tends to cause more southerly winds in the eastern United States and wore northerly winds 1A the western United States. However, the tendency {a too small to be apparent every yaar; in sone “years in the 1990 the eastern United States 1s cooler than climatology (the control run mean) bla to blame a specific heatvave/drought on the ‘evidence that the greenhouse affect ths likelihood of such avants; our climate model simulations for the Late 1980’s~and tha 1990's indicata a tandancy for an increasa of haatwave/ Grought situations in the Southeast and Midvest Unitad States. We note that the correlations betwaen climate models and observed temperatures are oftan very poor particularly during Northern phere sunner (reference 7). Thus improved understanding of these phenomena depends upon the It te not pos However, thdevelopment of increasingly realistic global climate models and upon the availability of global observations needed to verify and improve the models. REFERENCES 1. Hansen J., T. Pung, A. Lacts, D. Rind, G. Russell, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy and P, Stone, 1988, Global climate changes as forecast by the GISS 3-D mode LGeophya, Re. (in press). 2. Hansen, J., A. Lacia, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy and J. Lerner, 1984, Climate sensitivity: analysis of feedback mechanisas, Saoohya. Mona.,"29, 130-163. 3, Menabe, 5., R. T. Wetherald and R. J. Stauffer, 1981, Sumer dryness due to fan increase in atmospheric C02 concentration, Climate Change, 3, 247-386. 4, Manabe, 8. and R. T. Wetherald, 1986, Reduction in sumer soil wetness in- duced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, Science, 232, 626-628. $. and R. T Wetherald, 1987, Large-scale char induced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxii 1211-1235. 3. Man 6. Hansen, J. and §, Lebedeff, 1987, Global trends of measured surface air temperature + 92, 13,345-13,372; Hansen, J. and S. Labedeff, 1988, Global surface air temperatures: update through 1987, . Geophys, Rea, Latt., 15, 323-326. 7. Grotch, $., 1988, Regional intercomparisons of general circulation model predictions and historical climate data, Dept. of Energy Report, DOE/NBA-0084.: 47 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TREND. “so —Te60— —ia te 1900 19601990 Tig. 1. Global surface air tempereture change for the past century, with the aro point defined as the 1951-1960 mean. Uncertainty bars (9: Limits) are based on an error analy: refer to the 5-year nesn end outer certainty 18 @ result of incomplete spatiel coverage by weasuresent stations prinartly ture to the mean 06; oe : a) 19657 18 Dote Fig. 2, Global surface att teaperature change at seasonal resolution for the past 30 yeare, Figures 1 and 2 are updates of results in reference 6.15] Estimoted Temperatures During Altithermol and Eemion Times 1.0] £ a os] Oke oat v Vv Vv v Vv 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019 Date Fig. 3. Ancual mean globel eurface air tempereture computed for trece ges scenarios 4, Band C described in reference 1. (Scenario A assumes continued grpvth rates of trece gas eaissions typical of the past 20 years, i.0., about 1.58 yr" ton frovth; scenario B has emission rates approximately fixed at current G-drastically reduces treca (as ealsetons batveen 1990 and 2000.) Observed temperatures are from reference 6. The shaded range is an estinate of globel temperature during the peak of the current and previous interglectel periods, about 6,000 and 120,000 years before ‘present, respectively. The sero point for observations is vhe 1951-1980 mean (reference); the sero point for the model 18 the control run mesn. =49. UE saver encmalies for six individual yeere of scenario 3, with 1958 atacepheric composition (ese Arcachnent A).ATTACHMENT A Global Climate Changes as Forecast by the GISS 3-D Model 7, R.RUEDY, G. RUSSELL J. HANSEN, LFUNO, A.LAcss, D. Rin, $. iy P. STONE Maxsachasens insite of Technology, Cambridge Model 1 vations of ‘vloes octinaed * se the [NASA Godden Spece Fgh Cons, nana for Space Satie, New York Ti 8 enue ae it 5 ana a HY ae to appear in J, Geophya, Bes.—51— kg hE He att Hie Hin a THe int cuit - sa i . tt thlh ti il iH ith yuna Hi il! th I Hi i Hels Hate HF Tea ik Hj fil i i atl ie iq a aivatve verial Nest transpon beneath the level defined bythe annuabmasimum mized layer depth. The globe! mean epth of this level ie about 125m and the effeaive global flusion coefficient beneath is about 1 cm?s ‘Tne horizontal transpon of heal in the ocean ib specified from estimates (or today's ocean, varying seasonal at each [pidpoint, as described in Appendix A. In our experiments ‘wun changing stmowpherie compodtion we keep the ocean oraonal heat transport (and the med layer depth) ‘ential to that in the control run, Le, no feedback of climate change on ocean heat tranipon is permitted in these ‘experiments, Our rationale for IMs approach as a Crs sep la'that It permits a realise atmosphere simulation and simplifies anubpit of the experimen. Iniial experiments ‘ih an idealized interactive etmosphere/ocean model suggest that the assumption of no feedback mey be a good fir sppronimation for small climate pemurbations in the zecion of a warmer climate (Bop ef al, 1984; Manabe ‘and Bryan, 1985]. In edition, experiments with s zona) irerage heat balance model ages thatthe global average cate senitvity does not depend srongly on the foed- back in the ocean heat transport (Wong et of, 1984) However, we dtress that this “surprise ree” representation ‘of the ocean excuses the effects of aatral variably of ‘cean tranuports and the pouty of awiches tn the Basic mode of ocean creation Broecker et al. (1985) for ‘eample, have wpgested that sudden changes in the rate of deep water formation may be euocisted with oxi lations of the climate stem. Discussions of the tranien, ‘ocean response have been given by Schneider and Thompson [U961), Bryan et af. {1984} and oxerz We consider out simple treatment of the ocean 10 be only » fst wep in ‘mudying the dinate response to a’ dowly changing cimae focing, one which maw be compared with fewts from @pamiaally buerncthe ocean models when such models are ‘sppled to ths problem. eee seme ctnastrpangeetteast ‘the atmospheric composition fixed at estimated 1958 values. ae oe ce eee srs Sree aimee Beene 2 ee a aE eo ee ? the annual-maximum mined layer depth) can have 8 Trent 52 temperature each year; this heat sorage and release can lfc th rant vrai of mrface emperor. ‘The variation of the lobabmean annvalmean w'face tir lempermure during the 100 yar coitol run shown i Figure 1. The gba! mean temperature atthe nd ofthe ‘un b very undar to tha at the begining bot tere fubetania! nforead varablly on alltime sales th can be examined, that ly up to decdal tne salen Not that 1 unforced ‘change in oul temperature of about 04°C (OC ifthe carve smoothed with 85 year evaning ean) curred fn one 20 yer period (ean $07). "Tre andar Gevation about the 100 yar mean ls 041°C. This unforced varubily"of global temperure in the model i ony ‘lightly smaller then the observed variability of global surface ai emperature lathe past century, as Aiea in Section 5. The conduton that unforced (and unpeaabe) ‘diate vaabty may acount for 8 large portion of past imate change has been sreued by mary fewarhes for ‘example, Lorene [1968}, Hassle (1976) and Robock [1978 ‘The spate iruton of the interannual vary of sempertre fa the model Is compared with observational ‘atin Pie 1. ‘The eopephaldaroution of src wt temperatore variably Is thown fn Plate Lo or the model tnd’ Pine” 1b for otvervaons. The sandsrd. deviation ranges fom about 025°C at low intves to mre than PC A high aituden ls Both the model and observations. The ‘models variably tends t0 be larger than obiene® ver fominens, this ares mtnly (rom vnreaialy large ‘model varbiy (by about & factor of to) over the aminens in sommer, a shown by the tenonal grophs of Hanson and Lebedef 887, Tye bierannee vay of at 8 uncon of end 1d for the model and observations. ‘The seasonal ditribution of ‘aruba inthe model & generally reals excep tht the summer misinum in the Northem Hemisphere oceus owt one mowh cary. The tverumnal varsbilty of lemperture ‘4 fencion of height more diel 10 We use these interannual varabites in Section $ 10 help imate the significance of predicted climate trends an ‘audy where & should be mou profiable to search for early‘eigence of greenhouse climate effeas We éefer funher ‘iscussion of model varsbiliy and observed variably to ‘hat section 4. RADIATIVE FORCING IN SCENANOS A, BAND C 4, Trace ges We define stuce trace gas scenarios 10. provise an indication of how the prediaed climare trend depends upon trace gut gow ates Scenario A ssaumes that growth fates af ice gat emissions plea ofthe 1970 and 1500: ‘wil continue ndefiiey, the atuimod annual gowh enges about 15% of current eminions, 10 the net (Geenbout forcing increscs xponenaly. Sct B has Secreasng. tee ar prow tes such tha the annual lncrene of the peenhoue climate forcing remain appa rmaely constant atthe present lve, Soearo C druicaly redves trace pat gowtn berween 1990 and 2000 sich that {he peenhouse climate forcing crates to Increase ater 200 ‘The range of cdmate forcings covered. by the vee seznanin is farther ineased by the fact tat senso A indudes the ffea of several ypethetcal or eruéely tstimated trace as tends (xane,mraowphel water vapor, tnd miner clone and fuerine compounds) which are nt lnclded in enaion Band C “These icenarion ate designed 10 eld sestvy exer sens for 8 broad range of future grenhoute forcings Scenario A, ince lt exponen, mum eventual be on the Rh sie of realty In View of Tinie rescue cone rains and. emironmental concerns, eventhough the {Bow of emo in Scenario A (+ 15% yr ae thin the rate ypial of the pas cenuny (» 6% yr, Sceario Co more drasiccumtliment of emisions than has azveraly been imagined, it represents elimination of lorouorecarbon emisions by 2000 and reducion And other trace gas emluons 10 «level such that che saul growth rates are zero (ie, the sources jx balance the ans) by the year 200 Scenario Bs peaps the ‘ox plusble of ne thee cases ‘The abundances of the trace gases in thee thee secnaros re specied in detain Appendix B The aot (ermbouse frcog, AT, (or these semais s Bhurued in Figure 2; aT, is the computed temperature change at equ toum (¢ ofr the ghen charge ln tece gut sbundanes, with no einae feedbacks incuted [paper 3). Somario A Feaches 4 cimue fordng equbalent to. doubled CO, In ‘out 208, scenario Breaches that level in aboot 206, nd teemario C never vpproches that level. Nove that our Ieenario A goes approximately through the middie ofthe range of Weel climate forcing estimated for 2000 by Ramonahon cto! [98], and scenario BU near the lower lini of the eximaed range. Nota alo thatthe frcag fn scenario A exceeds that for scenation Bnd C for the ‘erod from 19SB othe present, even though the forcing a {Oat period 1s nominly based on observations this it becae wena A laces «ford for some spective trace gas changes In addition fo the measured ones (Ct ‘Append B). ‘Our climate model computes explicitly the raditve forcing Que to each of the above trace gates, ving the ‘correltied k-dcribution method poper 1}. However, we amipate that the climate reaponse toa gen global radative forcing AT, is tiar to firs order for diferen, (aes, as supported” by calculations for diferent clima forcings in paper 2 Therefore, reasks obtained for our ‘yee scenarios provide an indication of the expected climate response for # very broad range of susompiions bout trace gas trends. The forcing for any other scenario ‘of atmospheric trae gases can be compared to these thee uses by computing T,() with formulas provided in ‘Append B. 42. Searospheie aerosols Siratompheric aerosol provide second variable climate - forcing in cur experiment. This forcing is idesical in al (hyve experiments for the period 1958-1985, during which time there were two substantial volcanic ervpions, Agung in 1963 and EI Chichéa in 1982 In wcenarios B and C, ‘sddtional Large volcanoes are inserted in 1995 (identical in Droperties 10 El Chichn, in 2015 (identical to Agung), and {a 2025 (identical to El Cchén), while in scenario A no ‘sional voleane aerosols are Included after thote from El Chichén have decayed to the background wratospherc serosal level. The sratospheric serowls in weenano A are thus an exreme case, amounting to an sssumption that the eat few decades will be similat (0 the few decades before 1963, which were free of any voleanic eruptions ereaing lange stratospheric optical depths, Scenariot B and C in fleet use the assumption that the mean’ sratospherc serosol optical depth ‘during the nen few decaded wil ‘be comparable to that in the voleancaly active period 1958-198. ‘The radathe forcing ue to sratoapheric serotols ‘pends upon their physical propenier and global dit ‘ution, Sulfiient Observational daa on ‘Rratowpheric ‘opeckis and serosol properis is evaluble to define the ‘traoapherleseroeol forcing reasonably well uring the pat few decades, at described In Appendix B. We nibjeatvely fatimate the uncertainty in the global mean forcing due 10 ‘araogpheric aerosols 1s about 25% for the period from 1958 {othe present. It should be possible eventual to improve the eatimated serowol forcing for the 19804, as discussed in years alter major eruptions, but within # few decades the ‘cumulative CO,/irace gas warming. in scenarios A and B is much greater than the seroic cooling S.TRantiEnr SuLATiONs S.A. Global Mean Surfce Air Temperate Tre global mean surface air temperature computed forscenarios A, B and C is thown in Figure 3 and compared wah observations, the Lauer based on analyet of Hansen and Lebedefl [1987] updated to Include 1986 end 1987 data ‘Figure 4a la the annua! mean result and Figure 35 Us the five year running mean, In Figure Jo the temperature range OS-10°C above 1951-1980 ‘climatology noted ab an feximaie of peak pobal temperatures th the current and Previous huerglacal periods, based on severa} climate indicarors (NAS, 1975; despite uncensinsies in recon- sxructing global temperatures at howe times, kt i signify ‘ant that recent inverpeca! periods were not much warmer than today. Incerpreation of Figure 3 requires quantification of the smapsude of natural variably, fn both the model and observations and the uncerainy inthe meanremenis AS mentioned in the deaciption of Figure 1, the standard MOPFEESE] eps por Wor wh Tam TPTUGRASC! Cape par wr wih Ta BRAFLOP Woshngton, D.C. Fig-S. Climatology and modelbesed estimates of fotere frequency of exieme temperature in tevera ci aye with maximum temperature sbove 95°F (35°C), days wth minimum temperature above 75°F (« 24°C), nisin temper below °F (PC). Clits forthe tre deraes 1950-197, th long ad hot ba and the dotted and dashed horioalal lies) specify tbe ‘end inerdecadal variability standard deviation), rexpec- tively, for these 30 years of dale. A, B and C represent trace gas scenarios A, B and C. The vertical scale for days ‘ih'T s S27 (°C) ie factor two leas than the sale for ie other two quantities.710 Frequency of Hot Summers 100; (0) Woshington D.C. PERCENT (b) Omaha PERCENT —*— Scenario A seesoeeee Scenario B --4=-— Scenario C ! ° 1960's 1990's 2020's 2050's DECADE Fig.6. Estimate of the probability of the summer being "bot", shown for two locations for scenarios A, D and C. A hot" summer is one io which the mean temperature exceeds a value which was choven such that onécthird of the ummers were "hot" in 1950-1979 observations. The estimated probebilty for hot summers in the 1990s is chown by the ‘Bhaded region forthe range of :1 aes oe Ele SE ney She oi aes or ce Fe, Beta min fring ci em ty mip, Sicha inated 0 Sen Ts SRE ces Cae icy printer, witan nat eects mc, ATy mes be mindy 8 eda fa foe ‘uatelm mars tempetre chung urodag ck She per Tce sel ea ped Titer eo thawed of he spare he dee sack A athe don eth td ge enn Shsso= Ob wr crateagh = SS whe eso acc tin eg fora "203 The und to change (605 Speed vn hag: of 015 athe vt corepSning oF and on 0.10; DECADAL INCREMENTS OF GREENHOUSE FORCING 0.08 5 0.06) . £ 2 bo 0.04 0,02 1850 - 1960 1960's 1970 1980's (per decade) DECADES Fig BE Est duct sions fo got! me tein tte cate es. AT, dtd tn the ‘eapion of FiBL. Porting own by Guta lines ae Riise.12 Aerosol Opticol Depth at Mouna Loa Optical Depth 0.01 1960 1965 1970 1975 1979 Date Fg Acute deh mesure Mau Loe ih ine ae acon ote mean es for IS ‘The hen he opt et at ian Los ced rm the tecnico eCard he (ent. The eros mark Te times roptce of Agung, As, Ferandin aod Pocgs respect73 Plate 1. Interannaal varsity (andard deviation) of temperate in the 100 year control vn (lft side) and as catimated from observations (sigh se). (a), (0, (6) and (2) show the interannual variably of wurtace sir tempera turejand (and (how th trina vai fhe nade need pp ae emperre. (6) and (2) re based on 1951-1980 obverations at meteorological sions analytes by Hansen and Lebedeh (1987). () is based on 1958-1985 radiosonde data analyzed by Angel |1986}, Repions without data are back. Plate 2. Left sie: decadal mean temperature change obtained for scenario B, relative 10 the control run, for the ‘eset 1960s, 19506 a0 2010s. Right wie: ratio of the computed temperature change 10 the interannual vanabiily of ‘the annual mean temperatura the 10 year control rua (Pate lo). Pla 3. Left sie: Gecadal mean sempersture change for senario B a 2 function of itituée’ and season, for the ‘decodes 1900s, 1990 and 20108. Right tide: rao ofthe computed lemperature change tothe interannual varbiliy of ‘the monthly mean temperature ia the 100 year control run (ite Je) Plate 4. Left sie: decadal mean temperntre change for scenario B as # function of pressure and latitude, for the ‘decodes 196, 1990s and 20108. Right tide: stio of the compuied temperature change t0 the interannual varsbiliy of ‘the anual mean temperature inthe 100 year contra rn (Pate Ye) Pte S. Simulated June~uly-Aupust (left side) and December-Jansary-Februtry temperature anomalies in the 1996, compared 10 the 10 year control un with 1958 atmospheric composition. Plate 6 Simulated July surfece ais temperature anomalies for six individual years of scenano B, compared 10 whe 100, {year contol run with 1938 almoxpheric composition4 PLATE 1gLLaviTuDE Laritupe caritupe. Scenario 8 atle 900% 9bPRESSURE {i PRESSURE (uo) o SSENABIO. Bar ioc) 1900's SCENARIO. 8 at/e: 1980's LL8h90} mcan a7 40.2°C es SCENARIO 8 sur 1986 MEAN at =+0.6¢ jo = arte) 6L80 Senator Wirtu. Fine. Thank you very much, Dr. Hansen, I think what we will do is run through the whole panel, if we might. If we might then go in the order in which I introduced the witnesses; Mr. Oppenheimer, Mr. Woodwell, Mr. Manabe, Mr. Dudek, and Mr. Moomaw. STATEMENT OF DR. MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, SENIOR SCIENTIST, ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND Dr. OppeNHEIMER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My name is Dr. Michael Oppenheimer. I’m an atmospheric physicist and senior sci- entist with the Environmental Defense Fund. Mr. Chairman, it is hot out today and unless we change our ways of producing energy, as we have just heard, it is going to continue to get hotter. T would like to thank the committee for giving us the opportuni- ty at this particularly appropriate time to testify about a recent report developing policies for responding to climatic change, which I will refer to as the Bellagio Report published two weeks ago by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations En- vironment Program. I participated, along with Dr. Woodwell, in the preparation of that report. This project that led to the Bellagio Report was developed in the wake of the publication in 1985 of a report, sometimes called the Villach 1985 Report also by UNEP and WMO, in which experts on climate from around the world produced a consensus that global warming, due to the emissions of greenhouse gases, was indeed un- derway. An examination of policy options was recommended. The Bellagio Report based on deliberations at two meetings by scien- tists and policy makers found that the time for action to respond to the impending warming is now. In particular the report recommends several steps to be under- taken immediately with the goal of slowing global warming. Other measures to cushion the consequences of unavoidable change and to develop a coordinated international response are also recom- mended in the report, including consideration of an international convention or law of the atmosphere. In my personal opinion greenhouse warming presents the most important global challenge of the next few decades on a par with defense, disarmament and economic issues. With warming appar- ently now measurable, as we have just heard, we are already play- ing catch-up ball. The midwest drought is a warning. Whether or not it is related to global changes, it provides a small taste of the dislocation society will face with increasing frequency if we fail to act. If measures are not undertaken soon to limit the warming, humans face an increasingly difficult future while many natural ecosystems may have no future at all. To illustrate the magnitude of the problem, I was going to briefly describe the greenhouse warming. I’m sure most of you fave heard about it, so I don’t need to repeat it. But it is due to the emissions of a variety of gases into the atmosphere which trap heat and lead to a warming of the surface. Primary among those is carbon diox- ide. And remember also that the sea level will rise in lock step with the increasing temperature due to the expansion of the oceans81 and the melting of land ice. As long as the amounts of greenhouse pares increase in the atmosphere, this process will continue una- ated, There will be no winners in this world of continuous change, only a globe full of losers. Today's beneficiaries of change will tomorrow’s victims as any advantages of the new climate roll past them like a fast moving wave. There will be a limited ability to adapt because our goals for adaptation will have to change continu- ously. The very concept of conservation on which environmenta- lism in this country was originally built does not exist in a world which may change so fast that ecosystems, which are slow to adjust, will wither and die. ‘he technical findings of the Villach-Bellagio workshops include the following. Global mean temperature will likely rise at about 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit per decade and sea level at about 2.5 inches per decade over the next century. As we have heard, the temperature trend will be more extreme at the higher latitades. These, rates are three to six times recent historical rates. By early in the next cen- tury, the world could be warmer than at any time in human expe- rience. Furthermore, as long as greenhouse gases continue to grow in the atmosphere, there is no known natural limit to the warming short of catastrophic change. Thus, at some point these emissions must be limited. Because the oceans are slow to heat, there is a lag between emis- sions and full manifestation of corresponding warming, a lag which some estimate at 40 years. The world is now 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than a century ago and may become another 1 or more de- grees warmer even if conditions are curtailed today. These changes are effectively irreversible because greenhouse gases are long-lived. We cannot go back if we don’t like the new climate. So, action to slow the warming must be taken before full consequences of cur- rent emissions are manifest and understood. This already committed warming means some adaptation meas- ures such as sea defense and even coastal abandonment are inevi- table. But effective adaptation will be costly and for many nations, such as Bangladesh for instance, infeasible. In fact, it will be infea- sible in some parts of the United States. The natural environment cannot adapt effectively to such rapid changes. The impending warming must be viewed as a disaster for natural ecosystems. The mountaintop declines of red spruce in the eastern United States, for instance, which are generally ascribed to air pollution or local ¢limatic variability, pale in comparison to the scope of change impending if warming continues. For instance, one model by Dr. Schugard at the University of Virginia predicts essen- tially biomass crashes in southeast pine forests over the next 40 years if warming continues with declines of up to 40 percent occur- ring over only decadal periods. The recent dispute over oil explora- tion in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge may be beside the point if the Arctic econysteny isdriven off the north coast of Alaska by climatic change. : If climate changes rapidly, agriculture and water resources may be stressed. Even if global food supplies are maintained, one need only look to the current great plains’ drought to see the human and economic cost associated with hot, dry weather in the grain: 82 belt. Weather of this sort we can expect with increasing frequency in the future. Although some change is inevitable and, in fact, appears tobe already underway, unacceptable warming is not inevitable if actit is begun now. Every decade of delay and implementation of green- ~ house gas abatement policies ultimately adds perhaps a degree Fahrenheit of warming and no policy can be fully implemented im- mediately in any event. The experts assessing this situation at Bellagio thought that the limitation of warming to recent historical rates of about 0.2° Fahr- enheit per decade for some finite time would at least give societies and natural ecosystems a fighting chance at adjustment. But un- limited warming at any rate is ultimately problematic. T hasten to say that the foregoing picture in some sense is good news. The bad news is that climate change may not occpr smooth- ly. Rather, it could occur discontinuously which would render fruit- less any attempts at planned adaptation. The advent of the ozone hole should make us cautious in assuming that atmospheric change will be gradual. My testimony contains a list of policy recommendations from the Bellagio Report, but let me make only one point. With permission of the Chairman, T'll use the figure over here. Slow warming at an acceptable rate—well, let me describe these two curves first. The green curve is the current trajectory of green- house gases of carbon dioxide emissions projected into the future and corresponds roughly to case B, which Dr. Hansen was referring to before. The yellow curve represents an emissions trajectory based on an attempt to slow warming to this point, 2° Fahrenheit per decade that I discussed before that would give us a fighting chance. It actually might ultimately stabilize carbon dioxide con- centrations in the atmosphere and climate change. The difference between those two trajectories—what we are in for if we do business as usual and a trajectory that might stabilize the atmosphere--I’ll call the greenhouse gap. That’s the gap that has to be closed if we are to have a fighting chance.. That repre- sents about a 60 percent reduction of current carbon dioxide emis- sions and, unfortunately, perhaps an 80 percent reduction from future emissions in the year 2025, just 40 years hence because emissions are projected to grow with business as usual. As I said, given this projected doubling in emissions over the next 40 years if we do nothing, we have a daunting task ahead. It is a task we must begin today. Thank you. (The prepared statement:of Dr. Oppenheimer follows] ‘~~ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND (202) 387-3500 “ Testinony of Dr. Michael Oppenheimer before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resourc United States Senate 23 June 1988 Natior 257 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10010 (212) 505-2100 1405 Arapahoe Avenue Boulder, CO 80302 * (303) 440-4901 $655 College Avenue Oakland, CA 94618 (415) 658-8008 1108 East Main Street Richmond, VA 23219 (804) 780-1297 128 East Hargett Street Raleigh, NC 27601 (919) 821-7793 (0 Read Poe84 ® My name is Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, I am an atmospheric physicist and senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund, a private, non-profit organization. I would like to thank ify about the the Committee for giving me the opportunity to t recent report, DEVELOPING POLICIES FOR RESPONDING TO CLIMATIC CHANGE, (referred to hereafter as the "Bellagio Report”), published by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environnent Programe, The Environmental Defense Fund, along with the Beijer Institute of the Royal Swedish eh Center, was an originator of Academy and the Woods Hole Re: the project which produced this report, I served on the steering committee for the two international conferences which provided the basis for the report, and I also contributed to its preparation. _ This project was developed in the wake of publication of the report of the 1985 UNEP/WMO/ICSU Villach meeting in which experts on climate from around the world produced a concensus that global warming due to the emissions of greenhouse gases was indeed underway. An examination of policy options was recomended. The Bellagio Report, based on deliberations by two. meetings involving scientists and policy-makers (called the Villach 1987 and Bellagio workshops), finds that the tine for action in response to impending warming is NOW. In particular,85 the report recommends several steps to be undertaken immediately ures to with the goal of slowing global warming. Other me: of unavoidable change, and to develop a cushion the consequenc: coordinated international response, are also recommended, including consideration of an international convention or "law of the atmosphere”. In my personal opinion, greenhouse warming presents the most important global challenge of the next few decades, on a par with defense, disarmament, and economic issues. With warming apparently now measurable, we are already playing catchup ball. The Midwest drought is a warning: whether or not it is related to global changes, it provides a small taste of the dislocations society will face with increasing frequency if we fail to act, If measures are not undertaken soon to limit the warming, humans face an increasingly difficult future while natural ecosystems may have no future at all. To illustrate the magnitude of the problem, let me briefly describe the causes of greenhouse warming. Certain gases which occur in the atmosphere in small amounts are growing rapidly in concentration due to human activities related to industry and 1s carbon dioxide, a product agriculture. Primary among thi of coal, ofl, and natural gas combustion, These "greenhouse gases* trap heat radiating from the surface of the earth which would normally escape into space, resulting in a warming of the surface. This increase in global temperature causes a level as ocean water expands and concommitant rise in global s86 land ice melts. As long as the amounts of greenhouse ga: increase in the atmosphere, this process will continue unabated. in this situation, only a globe There will be no winner full of losers. Today's beneficiaries of change will be tomorrow's victims as the changing climate rolls past them like a wave chat first sweeps you up, then drops you in the trough behind it. The very concept of conservation does not exist in a which are slow world which may change so fast that ecosyste to adjust, will wither and die. The technical findings of the Villach-Bellagio workshops include: Global mean temperature will likely rise at about 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit per decade and sea level at about 2.5 inches per decade over the next century. These rates are 3 to 6 tines By early in the next century the world recent historical rat. could be warmer than at any time in human experience. Furthermore, there is no-known natural limit to the varming short of catastrophic change, for as long as greenhouse gas growth continues in the atmosphere. At some point, these emissions MUST be limited. c, there is a lag Because the oceans are slow to hi between emissions and full manifestation of corresponding The world is now 1 degree warming -- a lag of perhaps 40 ys F warmer than a century ago and may become another one or more degrees warmer EVEN IF EMISSIONS ARE ENDED TODAY. These changes87 are effectively irreversible because greenhouse gases are long lived. WE CAN'T GO BACK IF WE DON'T LIKE THE NEW CLIMATE. So action to slow the warming must be taken before full consequences are manifest. This committed warming means some adaptation measur ‘al abandonment, are inevitable. such as sea defense and co: But effective adaptation will be costly and for many nations, AbLe such as Bangladesh, inf ‘The natural environment cannot adapt effectively to such A rapid changes. The impending warming must be viewed DISASTER FOR NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS. The mountaintop declines of » generally ascribed to red spruce in the eastern United Sta! air pollution or climate variability, pale in comparison to the For instance, scope of change impending if warming continu t pine forests in one model predicts biomass crashes in southe: the next century if warming continues, with declines of up to 40% occuring over decadal periods. The recent dispute’ over ofl exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge may be beside the point {f the Arctic ecosystem is driven off the north coast of Alaska by climatic change. rapidly, agriculture and water + Tf climate change ed, Even if global food supplies are resources will be str maintained, one need only look to the current Great Plains drought to see the human and economic cost associated with hot , and dry weather in the grain belt, weather of the sort which we ing frequency in the future. can expect with incre88 ‘Although some change is inevitable, and in fact app to be already underway, unacceptable waruing is not inevitable 1 action is begun NOW. Every decade of delay in implementation ent policies ultimately adds about a of greenhouse gas at degree F of warming; and no policy can be fully implemented immediately in any event, Limitation of warming to historical rates (about 0.2 degree F/decade) for some finite time would and natural ecosystems a fighting chance at Bive societi adjustment. But unlimited warming at any rate is ultimately problematic. The foregoing picture is the good news. The bad news is that climate change may not occur smoothly; rather it could occur in Jumps which would render fruitless any attempts at planned adaptation. The advent of the ozone hole should make us cautious in assuming that atuospheric change will be gradual. Slowing warming to an acceptable rate and ultimately stabilizing the atmosphere would require reductions in fossil fuel emissions by 60% from current levels, along with similar 8. Given the reductions in emissions of other greenhouse g: (s projected doubling in emissions over the next 40 y Figure 1) in "business-as-usual” scenarios, we have a daunting task ahead. can set us along the Certain immediate policy respons: path toward climate stability. Measures recomended for immediate implementation include: Ratification, implementation and consideration of strengthening of the Montreal Protocol on CFC emissions.ie 89 Development of national energy policies which encourage efficiency in generation, transmission and use. Investuents in rch and development of non- fossil fuel alternative energy systems. Encouragement of use of low-CO, fuels such as natural gas as a bridging measure. Control of nitrous oxide, methane and tropospheric ozone emissions where technology is currently available (such as arch tapping solid waste landfills for methane). Funding ri and development on control methods where uncertainties remain. Reversal of the current deforestation trend since forests serve to store carbon which would otherwise aggravate the geenhouse problem. Consideration of a global convention on greenhouse Planning for coastal protection and abandonment. Res reh support. for global change basic science initiatives. Policy research on “how to get the job done". The United States government should take the lead now with ar We still have a in each of the a series of measur window of opportunity to limit these changes to acceptable levels. The development of these policies, their implementa- st of the solutions to the tion, and the diffusion of th world, should largely define the framework for scientific and technological development over the next few decades. Thus the problem of global warming presents both challenges and opportunities. But the pur iit of solutions and their implementation must begin today.JUN-22-08 wep ‘NTURE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS * 90 (a1) 48200 @ @¢ 8 & & |_J a i 2 g \ } a a & ty | g g 8 2 -} 8 5 g 8 . 2 8 8 2 g g g 8 2 tL 8 a See eee ava, 30d woqaep 30 8v0268T9 Figure 1 ween _ ‘BEVELOPKENT,, OUR CORRE ‘TRE POTENTIAL FOR CONTROLLING THE CREEMIOUSE | i 4 :91 Senator Wirtu. Thank you very much, Dr. Oppenheimer. Dr. Woodwell? STATEMENT OF DR. GEORGE M. WOODWELL, DIRECTOR, WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER Dr. Woopwe.. Thank you. I am George M. Woodwell, Director of the Woods Hole Research Center. I wish to add strength to the assertions of the two previous speakers who have articulated things so splendidly and accurately. ‘e are embarked on a period of drastic climate change. We have lived through and developed our civilization in a period of substan- tial stability of climate. We are now entering a period when cli- mates globally will change substantially. The rate of change is of particular importance. The average changes in temperature of the earth that you heard described just a few moments ago are, of course, made up of extremes. The changes in the tropics will be very little. The changes in high lati- tudes will be substantial perhaps two and a half times, maybe two times, the amount of change described as the average change in the temperature of the earth or whatever amount of infrared ab- sorptive gas accumulates in the atmosphere. ‘he amount that is usually settled on is the equivalent of the doubling of the carbon dioxide content. We expect that that would occur sometime early in the next century, certainly before the middle of the next century, 2030 or so. At that time the tempera- tures in the middle and high latitudes may be two times or so above the means we have heard discussed. We expect the means to run for the earth as a whole somewhere between 1 and a half and 5 and a half degrees Centigrade. So, we could have over the next decades changes in the temperature in the middle and high lati- tudes where we live and farther north, considerably farther north, that might approach a half a degree Centigrade to well over a degree Centigrade per decade. Those are very big changes meas- ured in any calculus. They ure much larger than the capacity of forests, say, to adapt to climatic change. Forests are easily destroyed and not very easily rebuilt. A temperature change of the order of 1 degree Centigrade is the equivalent of moving northward under present climatic re- imes roughly 100 to 150 kilometers. That would be 60 to 100 miles. it sort of change in a decade in the high latitudes is entirely conceivable as something that can occur in the next decades. That change has the potential for destroying forests over large areas at a high rate. Now, why is that important? Well, it’s important for several rea- sons, not the least of which is that we use forests very heavily, but also because forests contain a large amount of carbon. It is con- tained in the plants of the forest and in the soils. There is in the middle and high latitudes at least as much carbon stored in forests and their soils as there is in the atmosphere at the moment. Warming the earth at rates approximating those described and an- ticipated for the next years has the potential for speeding the re- lease of that carbon by stimulating the decay of organic matter in soils much in excess of any potential for those forests for taking