PAKISTAN ELECTRIC POWER CRISIS AND ITS POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................2
1.INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................2
2.INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS ...................................................3
3.FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER SHORTAGE..............................4
4.EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS.............................................................................5
4.1.Effects on People .....................................................................................5
4.2.Effects on Economy..................................................................................6
5.SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE......................................................6
5.1.Energy Conservation Measures...................................................................6
5.2.Short Term Measures................................................................................8
5.3.Long Term Measures.................................................................................8
6.CONCLUSION.................................................................................................9
BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................................................................10
APPENDIX..11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The recent electric power shortage crisis in Pakistan is affecting economy
and various people and the situation is getting worse day by day. Although
only 46 percent of the population of the country has the facility of electricity
but still the government is unable to manage a steady power to them. Poor
planning, recent climatic changes, oil prices and politics are the primarily
responsible for todays severe crisis. The economy and subsequently people
are badly effected by this crisis with loss of huge capital and degrading
health. The solution to the current crisis lies in energy conservation al all
levels in the country. However the use of alternate energy such as wind
turbine and solar power can be utilized to immediately reduce the shortage,
while electricity generation projects from coal and large dams can provide a
long term solution to electricity shortage.
1. INTRODUCTION
3. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions Pakistan is in the
grip of a serious power shortage crisis that is affecting all sectors of the
economy and the various segments of the society. As we write this report,
the country is plunging deeper and deeper into the crisis; the electricity
shortfall has hit the record level. This situation has pushed the people of
Pakistan to bear the burden of 8 to 16 hours load shedding, which might
further increase in the future.

2. INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS

Pakistan is experiencing these shortages despite its miserly electricity use
with per capita consumption of 546-kilowatt hours per year, a fifth of the
global average of 2,586-kilowatt hours, according to statistics from the South
Asia Association for Regional Cooperation. Also the fact that electrical power
shortages are so sever in Pakistan where only approximately forty-six
percent of the population has access to it. Pakistan's electricity production
was nearly 3,000 Mega Watts (MW) short of demand in March. The authorities
(see Appendix A) tried to make up the difference by turning off lights, and
everything else, for several hours a day. The electricity shortfall has hit the
record level of 7,075 MW in July owing to the forced shutdown of many units
of power generation plants following the severe fuel scarcity. This power
shortage crisis is likely to continue for several years even if the steps are
taken to reduce it on war-footing basis. Below mentioned data show that the
gap between demand and supply of electrical power will increase in the
future. `
Table 1 Power Generation Power Consumption Year Power Deficit
(Projected) (Projected)
2009 15,032 MW 18,715 MW 3,683 MW 2010 17,378 MW 20,345 MW 2,977 MW
2011 18,831 MW 22,116 MW 3,285 MW 2012 22,898 MW 24,041 MW 1,143 MW
2013 23,311 MW 26,133 MW 2,822 MW 2014 24,022 MW 28,408 MW 4,386 MW
2015 25,433 MW 30,881 MW 5,448 MW Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book
2007
3. FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER SHORTAGE
An important question in the midst of ongoing power shortage crisis, being
raised is that why the energy crisis looms on our head despite the fact that
statistics, demand and consumption are well articulated. According to the
statistics published on Jul 2 2004 in Energy Bulletin the gap between firm
supply and peak hours demand has shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this
year(2004) and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and
further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the year 2007. All this data was readily
available to all concerned government, so the answer to the above question
is evident but there are some other factors which turned the existing power
crisis into worse than expected. Some of these factors are discussed below:
Pakistan's 19,500 megawatts of production capacity, more than 60 percent is
from imported furnace oil and domestic natural gas power plants.
Hydropower generated from the country's two major dams accounts for
about 30 percent, and its one nuclear power plant produces less than five
percent.

The primary trigger although not the long-term cause of the power cuts was a
dry December. The low rainfall reduced the water in the dams, reducing the
total power output from all major hydro electric dams. There are also
restrictions on water release; because dams are also irrigation reservoir,
there are restrictions on the amount of water it can release for electricity
generation. Even when the rains came, and the electricity supply increased,
that did not guarantee that the power would stay on. Another short term
factor was that transmission towers and natural gas supply infrastructure
have been blown up by the terrorists particularly in Baluchistan from where
most of the gas is supplied to the power plants. The rising prices of oil
products is also a major cause of power disruption in Pakistan where more
than 60 percent of electricity is generated from furnace oil. WAPDA and other
independent power producers were having problems because they were
unable to pay for oil from oil marketing companies. Transmission losses (i.e.
power theft) are thirty to thirty-eight percent, as opposed to the ten percent
which might be expected through unavoidable line losses inherent in the
distribution system. So, even if the power distribution companies are able to
completely remove the theft during transmission (the popular KUNDA
system), 25 percent electricity could be saved and the crisis will end. A long
term cause of the existing power breakdown is that government regulated
tariffs on retail electricity prices kept revenues too low to make it worthwhile
for utilities to invest in their delivery or generation infrastructure, preventing
the network from keeping up with rising demand and unable to catch up.
4. EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS
4.1. Effects on People
The household sector been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for
44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption this crisis has literally
paralyzed the cities and villages and made life hell for the citizens. As a
result, the house holds which are connected to the grid are going without
electricity at average six hours of outages that are occurring per day this
month. The daily load shedding was at first unscheduled, which increased
the disruption and negative effects. Crowds protested in the streets of all
major cities due to the discontent caused by the power cuts. Police have also
reported increased crime during the blackouts in bigger cities. Power
outages are one of the factors of wheat shortage in the country. Mills could
not operate at capacity because of power cuts, which caused a rise in prices
and long queues for purchasing the flour. Water supplies were also affected,
as pumping and purification stations shut down.
4.2.Effects on Economy
The economy of Pakistan is very badly effected by the crisis halting major
trade and economic and agricultural activities. The industries consume 31.1
percent, agriculture 14.3 percent and commercial sector 5.5 percent of total
consumption of the country. The factories having to shut down during the

outages, international and domestic orders cannot be fulfilled due to reduced

production. Business activity is reduced due to communication and
infrastructure shutout. The production and sale of electrical appliances has
decreased as a result of the crisis.
5. SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE
In view of existing ground realities and statistics mentioned in Table 1, it is
impossible to overcome the crisis by short term measures. As we implement
short term measures to reduce the crisis the energy would have increased
more and the short term measures would look like nothing. In order to
address this crisis a three dimension parallel implementation measures are
required. These are:
1. Energy conservation measures
2. Short term measures
3. Long term measures
5.1. Energy Conservation Measures
There are no immediate solutions to generating additional power through any
source because a unit takes at least 2-3years to establish a thermal power
plant and more than 5 years are required to construct a hydroelectric dam
and the investment is enormous. So, energy conservation or efficient use of
electricity is what is needed at this crucial time. We should make the best use
of existing power generation by taking conservation measures at individual,
community and national level. The major users of electricity need to be
educated and motivated to play their role in energy conservation. They are:
industrial sector and domestic/household sector. Each sector needs to be
dealt separately to highlight the benefits of conserving energy.
Domestic/household sector consumes around 21 per cent of electricity
produced in the country. This sector could be efficient by 30 per cent by
avoiding wasteful habits of consuming energy such as keeping markets fully
lit etc. A positive development that has so far taken place in this sector is
gradual shifting over to use of energy savers. Similarly energy could be
saved by minimum use of air conditioners. The entire household should be
well-aware of energy consumption. The Industrial sector is consuming the
largest amount of energy in the country. It consumes around 45 per cent of
the total commercial energy. Most of them are concentrated in a few
industrial areas close to or within large cities such as Karachi, Lahore and
other cities. Industrial units are not energy efficient and management
practices need improvement to make efficient use of electricity. A study
carried out by an agency ENERCON reveals that efficient use of electricity by
the industrial sector could save up to 23 per cent of electricity. The focus on
energy conservation is on the improvement of steam distribution systems, air
conditioning, refrigeration and modernizing and revamping energy efficient

combustion processes and controls. A comprehensive plan should be

developed to raise awareness in the masses through a campaign in print and
electronic media. Some financial benefits to the consumers of power should
also be given if they cut their power to a certain extent. Power crisis is not
something new in the world. In 2000-01, US state of Page 7 of 11
8. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions California
introduced a plan to reduce the power crisis, further New Zealand, Australia,
Argentina, Brazil and even Sri Lanka have done it successfully.
5.2. Short Term Measures
The following short term measures can be taken immediately in order to
reduce the intensity of existing power crisis:
With power needed immediately, wind turbines look good because they are
relatively fast to install whereas dams and nuclear power plants take five to
six years to complete and thermal power plants need two years at least. Wind
power can play a big part of solving Pakistan's energy shortages, and now
that comprehensive wind maps have already been researched in the country.
Immediate measure should be taken to install wind turbines especially in the
already identified wind corridors of Karachi, Thatta, Gharo and Thar. The
wind turbines are also a viable solution considering cost and environment.
Government authorities should ensure overhauling all of the countries
existing power plants to achieve maximum generation as well as prevent it
from overloading which has been a source of power outages. This can be
done by periodically shutting down one plant at a time for maintenance and
overhauling in order to avoid overloading on other power plants.
Relaxing duties and taxes on energy conserving electrical devices, such as
energy saver lamps, LED lights, solar operated devices and wind turbines.
5.3. Long Term Measures
The following long term measures should be taken keeping in view the
projected increase in power consumption in the future:
Pakistan has estimated as the world's third-largest known coal reserves of
33.0 trillion tons in the south-eastern part of the country i.e. Thar. The answer
to long term solution of power crisis in Pakistan lies in using local coal for
power generation. The electricity production from coal is also cheaper than
thermal generation. In the long-term, Pakistan should also build more
nuclear plants and dams. Rehabilitation and replacement of the outdated
transmission and distribution systems is also a long term measure through
which the country can overcome the perennial problem of line losses and
thefts by unscrupulous consumers. All of the above mentioned measures if
implemented with commitment and honesty of purpose can help our country
and people to over come negative implications of power crisis.
6. CONCLUSION

It hardly needs to be emphasized that electricity is the lifeline of national

economy and the people at large. The Economy and public life practically
come to a halt because of the load shedding. The existing crisis can be
addressed by the government by taking prompt measures and by public by
taking energy conservation measures. There is hardly any room for neglect
or delay now.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
EIA - Country Information on Pakistan CIA World Factbook Pakistan IEA
Energy Statistics for Pakistan ADB Energy Sector Restructuring
Program Documents Business Recorder Dawn (Newspaper) Pakistan
Economist The Pakistan Daily Times The Pak Tribune Online Aaj TV
Pakistan Jang News website IEEE History Official Pakistan Government
site Privatization Commission of Pakistan The Pakistan Ministry of
Petroleum and Natural Resources Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation
(KESC) Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) National Electricity
Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) Water and Power Development
Authority (WAPDA) Pak-Arab Refinery, Ltd. The Pakistan Energy
Yearbook, 2005 The Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2007