Business Statistics

Week 6: Introduction to Probability

Question 1
A student is taking exams in Accounting, Economics and Spanish.
He has a 0.8 probability of passing Accounting, a 0.6 probability of passing
Economics and a 0.3 probability of passing Spanish.
a)
What is the probability he will pass all three?
P(pass all three) = 0.8 x 0.6 x 0.3 = 0.144
b)
What is the probability he will fail all three?
P(fail all three) = 0.2 x 0.4 x 0.7 = 0.056
c)

What is the probability he will pass Accounting and Economics and fail
Spanish?
P(Pass A and E and fail S) = 0.8 x 0.6 x 0.7 = 0.336
d)

What is the probability he will pass just any two of the exams and fail the
third?

P(Pass any 2 and fail the 3rd)

= P(Pass A and E and fail S) + P(Pass A and S and fail E) + P(Pass E and S and fail A)
= 0.8 x 0.6 x 0.7 + 0.8 x 0.4 x 0.3 + 0.2 x 0.6 x 0.3
= 0.468

Question 2
The medical centre in a large factory keeps a record of accidents happening in the
factory. When the statistics are analyzed, they reveal that the probability of a
serious accident happening on any given day is 0.02, but this falls to 0.015 for the
two or three days immediately following an accident. This is thought to be due to
the fact that people are more careful for a short while after an accident.
a)
What is the probability of two consecutive days with no serious accidents?
P(two consecutive days with no accidents) = 0.98 x 0.98 = 0.9604
b)

What is the probability of there being no serious accidents on the first day
and a serious accident on the second day?
P(no accident on 1st day and accident on 2nd day) = 0.98 x 0.02 = 0.0196
c)
What is the probability of there being a serious accident on both days?
P(accident on both days) = 0.02 x 0.015 = 0.0003