Demand

Week
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
LA
Total

-5
45
62
62
42
43
254

-4
38
18
22
35
40
153

-3
30
48
72
40
54
244

-2
58
40
44
64
46
252

-1
37
35
48
43
35
198

1
33
26
44
27
32
162

2
45
35
34
42
43
199

3
37
41
22
35
54
189

4
38
40
55
40
40
213

5
55
46
48
51
46
246

6
30
48
72
64
74
288

7
18
55
62
70
40
245

8
58
18
28
65
35
204

9
47
62
27
55
45
236

10
37
44
95
43
38
257

11
23
30
35
38
48
174

12
55
45
45
47
56
248

13 Average
40
40
50
42
47
47
42
48
50
46
229
222

Altavox Electronics
Simple Moving Average Model
Atlanta
Week
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

Demand
45
38
30
58
37
33
45
37
38
55
30
18
58
47
37
23
55
40
40

3 weeks
Forecast

42
43
38
38
40
43
41
34
35
41
47
36
38

Deviation RSFE

-9
2
-1
0
15
-13
-23
24
12
-4
-24
19
2

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-9
-6
-8
-8
7
-6
-29
-6
6
2
-22
-3
-1

9
2
1
0
15
13
23
24
12
4
24
19
2

9
11
12
13
28
41
64
88
99
103
128
147
149

9
6
4
3
6
7
9
11
11
10
12
12
11
0.29

Boston
Week

3 weeks
Demand Forecast Deviation RSFE
-5
62
-4
18
-3
48
-2
40
-1
35
1
26
41
-15
2
35
34
1
3
41
32
9
4
40
34
6
5
46
39
7
6
48
42
6
7
55
45
10
8
18
50
-32
9
62
40
22

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-15
-14
-5
1
9
14
25
-7
15

15
1
9
6
7
6
10
32
22

15
16
25
31
39
44
55
86
108

15
8
8
8
8
7
8
11
12

10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

44
30
45
50
42

45
41
45
40

-1
-11
0
10

14
2
2
12

1
11
0
10

109
120
121
131

11
11
10
10
0.24

Chicago
3 weeks
Demand Forecast Deviation RSFE
-5
62
-4
22
-3
72
-2
44
-1
48
1
44
55
-11
2
34
45
-11
3
22
42
-20
4
55
33
22
5
48
37
11
6
72
42
30
7
62
58
4
8
28
61
-33
9
27
54
-27
10
95
39
56
11
35
50
-15
12
45
52
-7
13
47
58
-11
Average
47
MAPE
Week

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-11
-22
-42
-20
-9
21
25
-8
-35
21
6
-1
-13

11
11
20
22
11
30
4
33
27
56
15
7
11

11
22
42
64
75
105
109
141
168
224
239
247
258

11
11
14
16
15
18
16
18
19
22
22
21
20
0.42

Dallas
Week

Demand
-5
42
-4
35
-3
40
-2
64
-1
43
1
27
2
42
3
35
4
40

3 weeks
Forecast

49
45
37
35

Deviation RSFE

-22
-3
-2
5

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-22
-25
-27
-22

22
3
2
5

22
25
27
32

22
12
9
8

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

51
64
70
65
55
43
38
47
42
48

39
42
52
62
66
63
54
45
43

12
22
18
3
-11
-20
-16
2
-1

-10
12
31
34
23
2
-14
-12
-13

12
22
18
3
11
20
16
2
1

44
66
85
88
99
120
136
138
138

9
11
12
11
11
12
12
11
11
0.22

LA
Week

Demand
-5
43
-4
40
-3
54
-2
46
-1
35
1
32
2
43
3
54
4
40
5
46
6
74
7
40
8
35
9
45
10
38
11
48
12
56
13
50
Average
46
MAPE

3 weeks
Forecast

45
38
37
43
46
47
53
53
50
40
39
44
47

Deviation RSFE

-13
5
17
-3
0
27
-13
-18
-5
-2
9
12
3

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-13
-8
10
7
7
34
21
3
-2
-4
5
17
20

13
5
17
3
0
27
13
18
5
2
9
12
3

13
18
36
39
39
66
80
98
103
105
113
126
128

13
9
12
10
8
11
11
12
11
10
10
10
10
0.21

5 weeks
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-1.15
-1.86
-2.53
1.27
-0.93
-3.21
-0.52
0.54
0.19
-1.92
-0.24
-0.12

42
39
41
42
38
42
41
36
40
42
38
37
44

Deviation RSFE

-9
6
-4
-4
17
-12
-23
22
7
-5
-15
18
-4

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-9
-3
-6
-10
7
-5
-28
-6
2
-3
-18
0
-4

9
6
4
4
17
12
23
22
7
5
15
18
4

9
14
18
22
39
51
74
96
103
108
123
141
145

TS

9
7
6
6
8
8
11
12
11
11
11
12
11

-1.00
-0.39
-1.07
-1.89
0.85
-0.59
-2.66
-0.47
0.14
-0.28
-1.61
0.03
-0.32

0.28

5 weeks
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-1.67
-0.55
0.17
1.12
1.94
3.16
-0.65
1.22

41
33
37
35
35
38
42
46
41

Deviation RSFE

-15
2
4
5
11
10
13
-28
21

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-15
-13
-9
-4
6
17
30
2
22

15
2
4
5
11
10
13
28
21

15
16
20
25
36
46
59
87
108

TS

15
8
7
6
7
8
8
11
12

-1.00
-1.60
-1.29
-0.67
0.90
2.19
3.54
0.17
1.87

1.25
0.21
0.20
1.22

46
45
42
40

-2
-15
3
10

21
5
8
19

2
15
3
10

109
125
128
138

11
11
11
11

1.88
0.46
0.79
1.75

0.26

5 weeks
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-1.28
-0.63
1.20
1.59
-0.45
-1.87
0.94
0.28
-0.06
-0.64

50
46
48
38
41
41
46
52
53
47
57
49
46

Deviation RSFE

-6
-12
-26
17
7
31
16
-24
-26
48
-22
-4
1

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-6
-18
-44
-27
-20
11
27
3
-23
25
3
-1
0

6
12
26
17
7
31
16
24
26
48
22
4
1

6
18
44
61
68
99
115
139
165
213
234
239
240

TS

6
9
15
15
14
17
16
17
18
21
21
20
18

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-1.81
-1.47
0.69
1.65
0.20
-1.23
1.18
0.15
-0.06
-0.01

0.39

5 weeks
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-2.68

45
42
43
42

Deviation RSFE

-18
0
-8
-2

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-18
-18
-26
-28

18
0
8
2

18
18
26
28

TS

18
9
9
7

-1.00
-1.96
-2.95
-3.94

-1.09
1.12
2.54
3.09
2.05
0.19
-1.13
-1.08
-1.22

37
39
46
52
58
61
59
54
50

14
25
24
13
-3
-18
-21
-7
-8

-14
11
34
47
44
26
5
-2
-10

14
25
24
13
3
18
21
7
8

42
67
91
104
107
125
146
153
161

8
11
13
13
12
12
13
13
12

-1.71
0.95
2.64
3.64
3.73
2.10
0.36
-0.19
-0.81

0.26

5 weeks
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-0.84
0.81
0.69
0.90
3.11
1.85
0.22
-0.18
-0.38
0.45
1.62
1.99

44
41
42
42
41
43
51
51
47
48
46
41
44

Deviation RSFE

-12
2
12
-2
5
31
-11
-16
-2
-10
2
15
6

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-12
-10
2
0
5
36
25
9
7
-3
-1
13
19

12
2
12
2
5
31
11
16
2
10
2
15
6

12
13
25
27
32
63
75
91
93
103
104
119
125

TS

12
7
8
7
6
11
11
11
10
10
9
10
10
0.21

-1.00
-1.52
0.24
0.00
0.80
3.43
2.32
0.79
0.68
-0.29
-0.15
1.35
1.98

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

80
70
60
50
40
30

10

11

12

13

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

Altavox Electronics
Simple Exponential Smoothing Model
Atlanta
Week
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

Demand
45
38
30
58
37
33
45
37
38
55
30
18
58
47
37
23
55
40
40

= 0.2
Forecast

42
40
41
40
40
43
40
36
40
42
41
37
41

Deviation RSFE

-9
5
-4
-2
15
-13
-22
22
7
-5
-18
18
-1

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-9
-4
-8
-10
6
-7
-29
-7
0
-5
-23
-5
-6

9
5
4
2
15
13
22
22
7
5
18
18
1

9
14
18
20
35
48
70
92
99
104
121
139
140

9
7
6
5
7
8
10
12
11
10
11
12
11
0.27

Boston
Week

= 0.2
Demand Forecast Deviation RSFE
-5
62
-4
18
-3
48
-2
40
-1
35
1
26
41
-15
2
35
38
-3
3
41
37
4
4
40
38
2
5
46
38
8
6
48
40
8
7
55
42
13
8
18
44
-26
9
62
39
23

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-15
-18
-14
-13
-5
3
16
-10
13

15
3
4
2
8
8
13
26
23

15
18
22
23
31
39
52
79
102

15
9
7
6
6
6
7
10
11

10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

44
30
45
50
42

44
44
41
42

0
-14
4
8

13
0
4
12

0
14
4
8

102
116
120
128

10
11
10
10
0.24

Chicago
= 0.2
Demand Forecast Deviation RSFE
-5
62
-4
22
-3
72
-2
44
-1
48
1
44
55
-11
2
34
53
-19
3
22
49
-27
4
55
43
12
5
48
46
2
6
72
46
26
7
62
51
11
8
28
53
-25
9
27
48
-21
10
95
44
51
11
35
54
-19
12
45
50
-5
13
47
49
-2
Average
47
MAPE
Week

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-11
-29
-56
-44
-42
-16
-6
-31
-53
-2
-21
-27
-29

11
19
27
12
2
26
11
25
21
51
19
5
2

11
29
56
68
70
96
106
132
153
204
223
229
231

11
15
19
17
14
16
15
16
17
20
20
19
18
0.38

Dallas
Week

Demand
-5
42
-4
35
-3
40
-2
64
-1
43
1
27
2
42
3
35
4
40

= 0.2
Forecast

49
45
44
42

Deviation RSFE

-22
-3
-9
-2

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-22
-25
-34
-36

22
3
9
2

22
25
34
36

22
12
11
9

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

51
64
70
65
55
43
38
47
42
48

42
44
48
52
55
55
52
50
49

9
20
22
13
0
-12
-14
-3
-7

-27
-6
16
29
29
17
3
0
-7

9
20
22
13
0
12
14
3
7

45
65
88
101
101
113
127
130
137

9
11
13
13
11
11
12
11
11
0.22

LA
Week

Demand
-5
43
-4
40
-3
54
-2
46
-1
35
1
32
2
43
3
54
4
40
5
46
6
74
7
40
8
35
9
45
10
38
11
48
12
56
13
50
Average
46
MAPE

= 0.2
Forecast

45
42
43
45
44
44
50
48
46
45
44
45
47

Deviation RSFE

-13
1
11
-5
2
30
-10
-13
-1
-7
4
11
3

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-13
-12
-1
-6
-4
26
16
3
2
-5
-1
10
13

13
1
11
5
2
30
10
13
1
7
4
11
3

13
14
25
30
32
62
72
85
86
93
97
108
111

13
7
8
7
6
10
10
11
10
9
9
9
9
0.19

 = 0.4
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-0.52
-1.28
-1.96
0.79
-0.90
-2.94
-0.63
-0.04
-0.48
-2.06
-0.41
-0.51

42
38
41
39
39
45
39
31
42
44
41
34
42

Deviation RSFE

-9
7
-4
-1
16
-15
-21
27
5
-7
-18
21
-2

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-9
-2
-6
-7
9
-6
-27
0
5
-1
-19
2
-1

9
7
4
1
16
15
21
27
5
7
18
21
2

9
15
19
21
37
52
73
101
106
113
131
152
154

TS

9
8
6
5
7
9
10
13
12
11
12
13
12

-1.00
-0.23
-0.88
-1.35
1.25
-0.70
-2.60
0.00
0.46
-0.12
-1.63
0.14
-0.05

0.30

= 0.4
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-2.00
-2.13
-0.81
0.46
2.19
-1.01
1.16

41
35
35
37
38
41
44
48
36

Deviation RSFE

-15
0
6
3
8
7
11
-30
26

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-15
-14
-8
-6
2
9
20
-11
15

15
0
6
3
8
7
11
30
26

15
15
21
24
31
38
49
79
105

TS

15
7
7
6
6
6
7
10
12

-1.00
-1.94
-1.17
-0.93
0.33
1.37
2.81
-1.10
1.28

1.32
-0.02
0.38
1.22

47
46
39
42

-3
-16
6
8

12
-3
2
11

3
16
6
8

108
123
129
137

11
11
11
11

1.15
-0.29
0.23
1.03

0.25

= 0.4
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-2.63
-3.03
-1.03
-0.39
-1.90
-3.10
-0.09
-1.04
-1.40
-1.63

50
47
42
34
42
45
56
58
46
38
61
51
48

Deviation RSFE

-6
-13
-20
21
6
27
6
-30
-19
57
-26
-6
-1

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-6
-19
-39
-18
-12
15
21
-9
-28
29
3
-3
-4

6
13
20
21
6
27
6
30
19
57
26
6
1

6
19
39
60
66
93
99
129
149
205
231
237
238

TS

6
9
13
15
13
15
14
16
17
21
21
20
18

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-1.20
-0.95
0.97
1.51
-0.54
-1.69
1.40
0.12
-0.15
-0.24

0.39

= 0.4
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00

45
38
39
38

Deviation RSFE

-18
4
-4
2

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-18
-13
-18
-16

18
4
4
2

18
22
27
29

TS

18
11
9
7

-1.00
-1.22
-2.02
-2.15

-2.96
-0.59
1.27
2.28
2.58
1.52
0.24
0.02
-0.65

39
44
52
59
61
59
53
47
47

12
20
18
6
-6
-16
-15
0
-5

-3
17
36
42
35
19
5
5
0

12
20
18
6
6
16
15
0
5

41
62
80
86
92
108
123
123
128

8
10
11
11
10
11
11
10
10

-0.38
1.68
3.11
3.87
3.42
1.78
0.43
0.49
0.02

0.21

= 0.4
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-1.82
-0.11
-0.77
-0.56
2.54
1.55
0.26
0.23
-0.56
-0.14
1.11
1.52

44
39
41
46
44
45
56
50
44
44
42
44
49

Deviation RSFE

-12
4
13
-6
2
29
-16
-15
1
-6
6
12
1

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-12
-8
6
0
2
32
15
1
2
-5
2
13
14

12
4
13
6
2
29
16
15
1
6
6
12
1

12
16
29
35
37
67
83
98
99
105
112
123
124

TS

12
8
10
9
7
11
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
0.21

-1.00
-0.97
0.61
-0.01
0.31
2.85
1.30
0.06
0.16
-0.43
0.17
1.30
1.51

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

14

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

14

30
20
10
0

10

11

12

10

11

12

13

14

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

80
70
60
50
40
30

13

14

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

10

11

12

13

14

10

11

12

13

14

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Altavox Electronics
Simple Moving Average Model - Single Distributor
3 weeks
Forecast

Week
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Average
MAPE

254
153
244
252
198
162
199
189
213
246
288
245
204
236
257
174
248
229
222

231
204
186
183
200
216
249
260
246
228
232
222
226

Deviation RSFE

-69
-5
3
30
46
72
-4
-56
-10
29
-58
26
3

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-69
-74
-72
-42
4
76
72
16
6
35
-23
2
5

69
5
3
30
46
72
4
56
10
29
58
26
3

69
74
77
107
152
224
228
284
294
322
381
406
409

69
37
26
27
30
37
33
36
33
32
35
34
31
0.14

Simple Exponential Smoothing Model - Single Distributor

= 0.2
Forecast

Week
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

254
153
244
252
198
162
199
189
213
246
288
245
204
236
257

231
217
214
209
210
217
231
234
228
230

Deviation RSFE

-69
-18
-25
4
36
71
14
-30
8
27

Abs. Dev. Sum of AbsMAD

-69
-88
-113
-108
-72
-1
13
-17
-9
19

69
18
25
4
36
71
14
30
8
27

69
88
113
117
153
224
238
268
276
303

69
44
38
29
31
37
34
33
31
30

11
12
13
Average
MAPE

174
248
229
222

235
223
228

-61
25
1

-43
-17
-16

61
25
1

365
390
391

33
32
30
0.14

5 weeks
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-2.79
-1.58
0.12
2.02
2.20
0.45
0.19
1.09
-0.67
0.07
0.16

220
202
211
200
192
202
227
236
239
244
246
223
224

Deviation RSFE

-58
-3
-22
13
54
86
18
-32
-3
13
-72
25
5

Abs. Dev. Sum of Abs. Dev.

-58
-61
-83
-70
-16
70
88
56
53
66
-6
19
24

58
3
22
13
54
86
18
32
3
13
72
25
5

MAD

58
61
83
96
150
236
254
286
289
303
375
399
405

58
31
28
24
30
39
36
36
32
30
34
33
31
0.14

= 0.4
Forecast

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-3.71
-2.35
-0.03
0.38
-0.51
-0.29
0.61

220
197
198
194
202
219
247
246
229
232

Deviation RSFE

-58
2
-9
19
44
69
-2
-42
7
25

Abs. Dev. Sum of Abs. Dev.

-58
-56
-65
-46
-2
67
65
23
29
54

58
2
9
19
44
69
2
42
7
25

MAD

58
60
69
88
132
201
202
245
251
276

58
30
23
22
26
33
29
31
28
28

-1.28
-0.53
-0.54

242
215
228

-68
33
1

-14
20
21

68
33
1

344
378
378

31
31
29
0.13

TS

3 sigma

(-3) Sigma

TS 3 Week
5.00
4.00
3.00

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-2.92
-0.54
1.78
2.43
1.56
1.64
2.17
-0.18
0.56
0.76

3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75

-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75
-3.75

2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00

TS 5 Week
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00

TS

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00

-1.00
-1.86
-2.82
-2.10
-0.07
1.99
2.24
0.74
1.05
1.97

-0.43
0.63
0.71

TS 3 Weeks

TS 3rd Week
3 sigma
(-3) Sigma

TS 5 Weeks

TS 3rd Week
3 sigma
(-3) Sigma