Product A

Month Sales month year aktual sales

Jan-18 27,792.20 january 2018 27,792.20
Feb-18 29,561.69 february 2018 29,561.69
Mar-18 36,198.01 march 2018 36,198.01
Apr-18 37,710.83 april 2018 37,710.83
May-18 28,377.09 may 2018 28,377.09
Jun-18 23,775.78 june 2018 23,775.78
Jul-18 36,814.91 july 2018 36,814.91
Aug-18 38,094.02 august 2018 38,094.02
Sep-18 39,681.32 september 2018 39,681.32
Oct-18 41,556.00 october 2018 41,556.00
Nov-18 37,222.83 november 2018 37,222.83
Dec-18 32,240.67 december 2018 32,240.67
Jan-19 28,130.44 january 2019 28,130.44
Feb-19 22,829.61 february 2019 22,829.61
Mar-19 22,583.43 march 2019 22,583.43
Apr-19 27,940.81 april 2019 27,940.81
May-19 28,206.68 may 2019 28,206.68
Jun-19 27,081.74 june 2019 27,081.74
Jul-19 26,114.81 july 2019 26,114.81
Aug-19 29,252.18 august 2019 29,252.18
Sep-19 30,986.64 september 2019 30,986.64
Oct-19 30,587.58 october 2019 30,587.58
Nov-19 29,217.33 november 2019 29,217.33
Dec-19 22,657.59 december 2019 22,657.59
Jan-20 31,131.41 january 2020 31,131.41
Feb-20 34,740.55 february 2020 34,740.55
Mar-20 43,482.54 march 2020 43,482.54
Apr-20 44,087.09 april 2020 44,087.09
May-20 33,447.02 may 2020 33,447.02
Jun-20 31,900.62 june 2020 31,900.62
Jul-20 37,521.01 july 2020 37,521.01
Aug-20 42,412.97 august 2020 42,412.97
Sep-20 45,158.93 september 2020 45,158.93
Oct-20 39,905.55 october 2020 39,905.55
Nov-20 43,893.29 november 2020 43,893.29
Dec-20 40,819.34 december 2020 40,819.34
Jan-21 38,269.24 january 2021 38,269.24
Feb-21 41,331.40 february 2021 41,331.40
Mar-21 42,486.04 march 2021 42,486.04
Apr-21 41,832.17 april 2021 41,832.17
May-21 40,213.72 may 2021 40,213.72
Jun-21 34,845.00 june 2021 34,845.00
Jul-21 39,587.00 july 2021 39,587.00
 Aug-21 40,497.00 august 2021 40,497.00
Sep-21 42,931.91 september 2021 42,931.91
Oct-21 44,975.00 october 2021 44,975.00
Nov-21 43,227.00 november 2021 43,227.00
Dec-21 41,829.00 december 2021 41,829.00

Perintah:
1. Lakukan perhitungan peramalan untuk 6 bulan kedepan (Jan - Jun 2022)
2. Gunakan perhitungan peramalan menggunakan dengan pendekatan:
a. Naif
b. Moving average (3 dan 5 periode)
c. Exponential Smoothing dan alpha (0.3,0.5 dan 0.7)
d. Weighted Moving average (asumsikan bobot masing-masing)
e. Metode tren (pilih tren linear, kuadratik atau eksponensial, jelaskan mengapa menggunakan tren tersebut)
3. Plot hasil peramalan tersebut dalam grafik
4. Hitung error dari masing-masing peramalan menggunakan (MAD, MSE, dan MAPE), tentukan hasil peramalan yang terbaik

metode naïve perhitungan peramalan

data
month year aktual sales focesting eror absolute eror
january 2018 27,792.20
february 2018 29,561.69 28,130.44 1,431.25 (1,431.25)
march 2018 36,198.01 22,829.61 13,368.39 (13,368.39)
april 2018 37,710.83 22,583.43 15,127.40 (15,127.40)
may 2018 28,377.09 27,940.81 436.28 (436.28)
june 2018 23,775.78 28,206.68 (4,430.90) 4,430.90
july 2018 36,814.91 27,081.74 9,733.17 (9,733.17)
august 2018 38,094.02 26,114.81 11,979.20 (11,979.20)
september 2018 39,681.32 29,252.18 10,429.14 (10,429.14)
october 2018 41,556.00 30,986.64 10,569.36 (10,569.36)
november 2018 37,222.83 30,587.58 6,635.25 (6,635.25)
december 2018 32,240.67 29,217.33 3,023.34 (3,023.34)
january 2019 28,130.44 22,657.59 5,472.85 (5,472.85)
february 2019 22,829.61 31,131.41 (8,301.79) 8,301.79
march 2019 22,583.43 34,740.55 (12,157.12) 12,157.12
april 2019 27,940.81 43,482.54 (15,541.72) 15,541.72
may 2019 28,206.68 44,087.09 (15,880.41) 15,880.41
june 2019 27,081.74 33,447.02 (6,365.28) 6,365.28
july 2019 26,114.81 31,900.62 (5,785.81) 5,785.81
august 2019 29,252.18 37,521.01 (8,268.83) 8,268.83
september 2019 30,986.64 42,412.97 (11,426.33) 11,426.33
october 2019 30,587.58 45,158.93 (14,571.35) 14,571.35
november 2019 29,217.33 39,905.55 (10,688.21) 10,688.21
december 2019 22,657.59 43,893.29 (21,235.70) 21,235.70
january 2020 31,131.41 40,819.34 (9,687.93) 9,687.93
february 2020 34,740.55 38,269.24 (3,528.69) 3,528.69
march 2020 43,482.54 41,331.40 2,151.13 (2,151.13)
april 2020 44,087.09 42,486.04 1,601.05 (1,601.05)
may 2020 33,447.02 41,832.17 (8,385.14) 8,385.14
june 2020 31,900.62 40,213.72 (8,313.10) 8,313.10
july 2020 37,521.01 34,845.00 2,676.01 (2,676.01)
august 2020 42,412.97 39,587.00 2,825.97 (2,825.97)
september 2020 45,158.93 40,497.00 4,661.93 (4,661.93)
october 2020 39,905.55 42,931.91 (3,026.36) 3,026.36
november 2020 43,893.29 44,975.00 (1,081.71) 1,081.71
december 2020 40,819.34 43,227.00 (2,407.66) 2,407.66
january 2021 38,269.24 41,829.00 (3,559.76) 3,559.76
february 2021 41,331.40 2,014.50
march 2021 42,486.04 MAD
april 2021 41,832.17
may 2021 40,213.72
june 2021 34,845.00
july 2021 39,587.00
august 2021 40,497.00
september 2021 42,931.91
october 2021 44,975.00
november 2021 43,227.00
december 2021 41,829.00
Muhammad Syafrudin
Nim: 2010516110003

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
ry ch ay ly r r y h ay ly r r y h ay ly r r y h ay
ua mar m ju mbe mbe uar arc m ju mbe mbe uar arc m ju mbe mbe uar arc m
jan e e jan m e e jan m e e n m
pt nov pt nov pt nov ja
se se se
unakan tren tersebut)

kan hasil peramalan yang terbaik

square eror percentage eror

2,048,482.51 -5.09%
178,713,874.02 -58.56%
228,838,367.66 -66.98%
190,340.59 -1.56%
19,632,910.03 15.71%
94,734,572.36 -35.94%
143,501,302.50 -45.87%
108,766,935.53 -35.65%
111,711,411.37 -34.11%
44,026,582.44 -21.69%
9,140,560.39 -10.35%
29,952,104.78 -24.15%
68,919,735.33 26.67%
147,795,664.32 34.99%
241,545,120.08 35.74%
252,187,411.43 36.02%
40,516,820.88 19.03%
33,475,574.13 18.14%
68,373,614.48 22.04%
130,561,034.73 26.94%
212,324,289.84 32.27%
114,237,938.86 26.78%
450,955,012.55 48.38%
93,856,015.68 23.73%
12,451,653.48 9.22%
4,627,363.77 -5.20%
2,563,358.85 -3.77%
70,310,641.90 20.04%
69,107,625.21 20.67%
7,161,047.06 -7.68%
7,986,094.49 -7.14%
21,733,584.85 -11.51%
9,158,883.27 7.05%
1,170,092.85 2.41%
5,796,840.67 5.57%
12,671,863.84 8.51%
84,742,909.08 1.80%
MSE MAPE
 aktual sales
year

ay ly r r y h ay ly r r
m ju mbe mbe uar arc m ju mbe mbe
e e n m e e
pt nov ja pt nov
se se