Factors GDP Agriculture and Allied secto

Year
At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore)
1970-71
209842.98
1971-72
205903.46
1972-73
195570.24
1973-74
209655.02
1974-75
206461.23
1975-76
233073.63
1976-77
219606.21
1977-78
241646.45
1978-79
247210.37
1979-80
215630.01
1980-81
243420.90
1981-82
254622.33
1982-83
253907.26
1983-84
279605.15
1984-85
284037.15
1985-86
284929.80
1986-87
283763.06
1987-88
279257.48
1988-89
322932.36
1989-90
326772.53
1990-91
339892.76
1991-92
333256.39
1992-93
355421.30
1993-94
367230.91
1994-95
384549.44
1995-96
381875.38
1996-97
419758.56
1997-98
409039.06
1998-99
434892.19
1999-00
446515.30
2000-01
445402.59
2001-02
473248.49
2002-03
438966.26
2003-04
482676.52
2004-05
482910.17
2005-06
511113.98
2006-07
531315.45

AGRICULTURE & ALLIED SECTOR

Institutional Rural Credi
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectaresLong Term (in billlion Rs
33880
5.22
33675
6.38
34465
7.92
35318
9.85
36689
11.50
38538
17.72
38847
21.60
40562
25.20
42489
29.08
43053
35.68
42932
42.89
43934
48.43
44453
59.95
46249
71.85
46262
86.70
46128
103.77
47723
116.45
46826
137.42
50808
152.39
51313
181.60
52134
193.13
53432
207.23
54744
225.76
56135
240.37
58035
263.78
58062
282.27
61409
309.11
62271
329.50
65341
338.86
66247
497.24
64183
373.02
66109
452.34
61722
542.24
65176
704.54
66298
862.59
67968
1079.88
70493
1324.77

Rainfall
Tractors
Annual (mm) Sales
92.6
15760
127.8
16575
120.9
18354
151.2
19875
124.4
26578
148.0
32765
95.6
33473
167.4
39667
117.8
51428
142.4
58027
92.4
68087
86.6
83301
111.5
63714
119.7
74238
92.0
80263
161.4
78232
152.7
77889
160.7
90510
87.7
106250
89.4
117300
165.3
137123
106.8
146800
112.0
146770
134.9
139072
130.9
164075
123.9
191200
130.9
228612
167.0
253276
157.0
256558
141.0
260762
66.4
237189
125.8
215005
77.6
165702
120.5
191677
119.2
247531
136.4
290546
100.8
352781

Tractors Sale
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0

Tractors Sales Time- Series

SUMMARY OUTPUT (Multi-Linear Regression)

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
GDP Agriculture and Allied sector (At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Cror
Long Term Institutional Rural Credit (in billlion Rs)
Rainfall Annual (mm)
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

0.9837301657
0.9677250389
0.9618568641
11153.3166737
27

df

SS
MS
F
Significance F
4 82057257404.5 20514314351 164.91073971 4.609582E-016
22 2736722402.12 124396472.82
26 84793979806.7

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
-92626.273001 46697.5545204 -1.9835358393 0.0599256337 -189471.07366
0.0370172897 0.2345838161 0.1577998445 0.8760539299 -0.4494797687
294.1323300095 122.859416171 2.3940560616 0.0256212913 39.337495674
-88.0551489197 85.8173217275 -1.0260766375 0.3160058733 -266.02938121
3.2065191684
1.332451398 2.406481147 0.0249457985 0.4431840999

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares

50000

Predicted Sales
17159.87881344
13598.36420581
16809.55074061
17965.69656387
25088.80507136
31754.17971301
38001.78997166
39053.35687076
50947.04958908
51361.62377757
58525.82963601
64293.62155619
67127.16634198
76615.46344559
83628.2015444
82141.38310296
91708.26924443
94128.75095159
119345.0230143

Residuals
-1399.87881343
2976.63579419
1544.44925939
1909.30343613
1489.19492864
1010.82028699
-4528.78997166
613.64312924
480.950410923
6665.37622243
9561.17036399
19007.3784438
-3413.16634198
-2377.46344559
-3365.2015444
-3909.38310296
-13819.2692444
-3618.75095159
-13095.0230143

Residuals

10

15

20

25

-50000

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares

At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore) Re

50000
Residuals

0
0.00
-50000

5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25

At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore)

129548.3793207
129374.5668804
142589.4605374
152609.2837108
159787.5219785
173758.8521277
179801.3341958
199214.5970942

-12248.3793207
7748.4331196
4210.53946262
-5839.28371079
-20715.5219785
-9683.85212772
11398.6658042
29397.4029058

Upper 95% Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0%

4218.5276559 -172812.71604 -12439.829959
0.5235143481 -0.3657969904 0.4398315698
548.92716435 83.164974692 505.09968533
89.919083371 -235.41588015 59.305582309
5.9698542369 0.9185077463 5.4945305906

ER IRRIGATION('000 hectares) Residual Plot

Annual (mm) Residual Plot

50000

50000
Residuals

als

10

15

20

25

30

-50000

0
0.0
-50000

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.

Annual (mm)

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)

0 Prices (Rs Crore) Residual Plot Long Term (in billlion Rs) Residual Plot
50000

50000

0
0.00
50000

Residuals
5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore)

0
0.00
-50000

5.00

10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

Long Term (in billlion Rs)

dual Plot

20.0

25.0

30.0

m)

Residual Plot

20.00 25.00 30.00

lion Rs)

AGRICULTURE & ALLIED SECTOR

Institutional Rural Credit
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectaresLong Term (in billlion Rs)
33880
5.22
33675
6.38
34465
7.92
35318
9.85
36689
11.50
38538
17.72
38847
21.60
40562
25.20
42489
29.08
43053
35.68
42932
42.89
43934
48.43
44453
59.95
46249
71.85
46262
86.70
46128
103.77
47723
116.45
46826
137.42
50808
152.39
51313
181.60
52134
193.13
53432
207.23
54744
225.76
56135
240.37
58035
263.78
58062
282.27
61409
309.11
62271
329.50
65341
338.86
66247
497.24
64183
373.02
66109
452.34
61722
542.24
65176
704.54
66298
862.59
67968
1079.88
70493
1324.77

ral Credit
lllion Rs)

Correlation Coeficient
0.83021

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.9828968358
0.9660861898
0.963260039
10946.24542524
27

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
24
26

Coefficients
Intercept
-106273.726354
Long Term Institutional Rural Credit (in billlion R294.3795488129
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)
3.4921507194

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 13577.00126465
2 13202.5906438
3 16414.7342173
4 19961.69131017
5 25235.15620202
6 33523.18367582
7 35744.45089751
8 42793.25575702
9 50664.82284271
10 54577.30087063
11 56277.22718052
12 61407.22490179
13 66610.90352749
14 76385.92285042
15 80802.85710964
16 85359.96781147
17 94662.68088788
18 97703.36083118
19 116015.9668416
20 126378.3295757
21 132639.5815142

22 141323.1447862
23 151359.6995696
24 160518.1664284
25 174044.678033
26
179582.04396
27 199172.0565093

From the MLR analysis, we have observed that out of the four potential
parameters, only two factors could satisfactorily explain Tractors sales.
These are: Institutional Rural Credit & Area under irrigation.

SS
MS
F
Significance F
81918292872.8 4.1E+010 341.83815453 2.314830E-018
2875686933.83 1.2E+008
84793979806.7
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 90.0%
38324.6718018 -2.772985 0.010571048 -185371.96136 -27175.491347 -171842.72056
83.6727658926 3.518224 0.0017611124 121.68744764 467.07164999 151.22531307
1.0215742673 3.418401 0.0022532754 1.3837250584 5.6005763804 1.7443576121

Residuals
2182.99873535
3372.4093562
1939.2657827
-86.6913101649
1342.84379798
-758.183675817
-2271.45089751
-3126.25575702
763.177157286
3449.69912937
11809.7728195
21893.7750982
-2896.90352749
-2147.92285042
-539.85710964
-7127.96781147
-16773.6808879
-7193.36083118
-9765.96684159
-9078.32957571
4483.41848584

Tracter sales= -106273.73 + 294.38*(Long term institut

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares) Residual Plot

50000
Residuals

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

-50000
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)

5476.85521379
-4589.69956958
-21446.1664284
-9969.67803302
11617.95604
29439.9434907

Upper 90.0%
-40704.73215
437.53378455
5.2399438267

(Long term institutional rural credit)+ 3.49*(Gross Area Under Irrigation)

es) Residual Plot Long Term (in billlion Rs) Residual Plot
50000
Residuals
30

ares)

0
0.00
-50000

5.00

10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

Long Term (in billlion Rs)

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.9744607451
0.9495737438
0.9475566935
13077.98601013
27

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
25
26

Intercept
Long Term Insitutional Rural Credit (in billlion Rs)

Coefficients
24288.80750722
570.3413798686

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 27265.98951014
2 27927.58551079
3 28805.91123578
4 29906.67009893
5 30847.73337571
6 34395.2567585
7 36608.18131239
8 38661.41027991
9 40874.3348338
10 44638.58794094
11 48750.74928979
12 51910.44053426
13 58480.77323035
14 65267.83565079
15 73737.40514184
16 83473.13249619
17 90705.06119293
18 102665.1199288
19 111203.1303854
20 127862.8020914
21 134438.8382013
22 142480.6516574

23 153049.0774264
24 161381.7649863
25 174733.456689
26 185279.0688027
27 200587.0314384

On Rurunning reggression when we drop the factor- Gross area under irrigation', Ad
hass dropped from the case when we retain both the factors.

SS
MS
F
Significance F
80518136854.6 80518136855 470.77346945 9.822514E-018
4275842952.03 171033718.08
84793979806.7
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
3777.4018228 6.430030123 9.85544E-007 16509.102824 32068.512191
26.2862656127 21.697314798 9.82251E-018 516.20380243 624.47895731

Residuals
-11505.9895101
-11352.5855108
-10451.9112358
-10031.6700989
-4269.73337571
-1630.2567585
-3135.18131239
1005.58972009
10553.6651662
13388.4120591
19336.2507102
31390.5594657
5233.22676965
8970.16434921
6525.59485816
-5241.13249619
-12816.0611929
-12155.1199288
-4953.13038541
-10562.8020914
2684.16179875
4319.3483426

Long Term (in billlion Rs) Residual P

50000
Residuals

0
0

50

100

150

200

-50000
Long Term (in billlion Rs)

250

30

-6279.07742637
-22309.7649862
-10658.456689
5920.93119725
28024.9685616

or- Gross area under irrigation', Adjusted R-square

hen we retain both the factors.

Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0%

17836.473482 30741.141532
525.44073811 615.24202162

lion Rs) Residual Plot

100

150

200

ong Term (in billlion Rs)

250

300

350

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.9739585625
0.9485952815
0.9465390928
13204.25788878
27

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
25
26

Intercept
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)

Coefficients
-233739.196321
6.9598011713

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 2058.867361428
2 632.108121321
3 6130.351046613
4 12067.06144569
5 21608.94885148
6 34477.62121714
7 36628.19977905
8 48564.25878776
9 61975.79564477
10 65901.12350535
11 65058.98756363
12 72032.70833723
13 75644.84514511
14 88144.64804869
15 88235.12546391
16 87302.51210697
17 98403.39497512
18 92160.4533245
19 119874.3815884
20 123389.0811799
21 129103.0779415
22 138136.8998618

23 147268.1589985
24 156949.2424277
25 170172.8646531
26 170360.7792847
27 193656.5033385

On Rurunning reggression when we drop the factor- 'Long term Institutional Credit'
square hass dropped from the case when we retain both the factors.

SS
MS
F
Significance F
80435169146.8 80435169147 461.33667773 1.249561E-017
4358810659.84 174352426.39
84793979806.7
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 90.0%
15074.3395837 -15.505766937 2.47372E-014 -264785.37985 -202693 -259488.29021
0.3240319549 21.478749445 1.24956E-017 6.2924448678 7.627157 6.4063089812

Residuals
13701.1326386
15942.8918787
12223.6489534
7807.93855431
4969.05114852
-1712.62121714
-3155.19977905
-8897.25878776
-10547.7956448
-7874.12350535
3028.01243637
11268.2916628
-11930.8451451
-13906.6480487
-7972.12546391
-9070.51210697
-20514.3949751
-1650.4533245
-13624.3815884
-6089.08117992
8019.92205847
8663.10013819

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares) Resid

50000
Residuals

0
30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

-50000
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)

6500

-498.158998502
-17877.2424277
-6097.8646531
20839.2207153
34955.4966615

m Institutional Credit', Adjusted Rain both the factors.

Upper 90.0%
-207990.10243
7.5132933613

hectares) Residual Plot

00

55000

60000

('000 hectares)

65000

Since Adjusted R-square has dropped in both the cases when we run regression
Tracter sales= -106273.73 + 294.38*(Long term institutional rural cred
Institutional Rural Credit
Year Long Term (in billlion Rs)
1970-71
5.22
1971-72
6.38
1972-73
7.92
1973-74
9.85
1974-75
11.50
1975-76
17.72
1976-77
21.60
1977-78
25.20
1978-79
29.08
1979-80
35.68
1980-81
42.89
1981-82
48.43
1982-83
59.95
1983-84
71.85
1984-85
86.70
1985-86
103.77
1986-87
116.45
1987-88
137.42
1988-89
152.39
1989-90
181.60
1990-91
193.13
1991-92
207.23
1992-93
225.76
1993-94
240.37
1994-95
263.78
1995-96
282.27
1996-97
309.11
1997-98
329.50
1998-99
338.86
1999-00
497.24
2000-01
373.02
2001-02
452.34
2002-03
542.24
2003-04
704.54
2004-05
862.59
2005-06
1079.88
2006-07
1324.77

square has dropped in both the cases when we run regression with only one factor, therefor, on retaining both th
106273.73 + 294.38*(Long term institutional rural credit)+ 3.49*(Gross Area Under Irrigation)
AGRICULTURE & ALLIED SECTOR
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares)
33880
33675
34465
35318
36689
38538
38847
40562
42489
43053
42932
43934
44453
46249
46262
46128
47723
46826
50808
51313
52134
53432
54744
56135
58035
58062
61409
62271
65341
66247
64183
66109
61722
65176
66298
67968
70493

Tractors Actual
Sales
15760
16575
18354
19875
26578
32765
33473
39667
51428
58027
68087
83301
63714
74238
80263
78232
77889
90510
106250
117300
137123
146800
146770
139072
164075
191200
228612
253276
256558
260762
237189
215005
165702
191677
247531
290546
352781

e factor, therefor, on retaining both these factors, equation is:

ross Area Under Irrigation)
Error
Tractors Forcasted Sales E=X-A
|E|
|E|/A
MAPE
13504.1336
35.0832
13130.1644
16340.6096
19885.733
25156.25
33440.3036
600000
35660.908
42706.026
500000
50573.4504
400000
54484.7184
56184.9082
300000
61312.7534
200000
66515.321
76286.483
100000
80703.396
85260.8026
0
94560.091
97602.7096
115906.7582
126268.048
132527.5394
141208.3174
151242.0588
160397.5406
173919.9764
179457.2926
199040.118409006
208050.794506222
45225 45225.21 0.178561
221518.877933667
35039 35039.12 0.136574
271306.105150022
-10544 10544.11 0.040436
227533.23566558
9656 9655.764 0.040709
257607.5082327
-42603 42602.51 0.198147
268760.058170363 -103058 103058.1 0.621948
328593.220717298 -136916 136916.2 0.714307
379036.449195477 -131505 131505.4 0.531269
448829.534974862 -158284 158283.5 0.54478
529732.277195565 -176951 176951.3 0.50159

Column E

Col

Column E

Column F