Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4/15/2016
Team Strategy
Choosing your investment strategy is one of the most important things
to develop when you are deciding to get into investing and creating a
portfolio. We took into effect a couple of key factors when deciding our
strategy, one of the big factors we looked at was the state of the economy
right now. With everything we took into effect we decided to go with a long
term investment strategy, we looked for big companies that we knew would
be around for long time, one such company is Google. However, based on
large losses from Google we began to re-think our strategy. We decided to
take a second look at the economy, and began the second phase of our
strategy which most resembled a top-down investing strategy. We looked
at the economy then broke it down into sectors based on industry. We knew
that energy sector was hurting from the cheap prices of oil, so we looked at
who would benefit from cheap oil prices. Our research took us to the
transportation industry, which was flourishing thanks to cheap fuel. After
some success in this field we decided to start looking into higher risk
investments that would yield a larger return. We allocate a small amount of
our buying power to moderate risk stocks such as Cliff Natural Resources Inc.
which yielded us $24,000 in returns. Currently our strategy stays flexible, we
adapt to the market and are constantly looking for our next big earner, while
keeping our foundation of stable large companies in our portfolio.
Economic Condition
Depending on how you look at it, most would say that we are in a bear
market right now, we have seen relatively steady drops for the past three
months. However, there are many people that believe we are in a correction
rather than a bear market, but however you view it most can agree stock
prices in general are lower. Right now many analyst blame this global bear
market due to cheap oil prices. Even with all of this working against the
economy, The International Monetary Fund believes that the world economy
will expand by 3.6% this year1. Here is their chart for their future outlook for
Major Investments
Google
One of our first investments that we made was in Google. The day that
Google passed Apple in market share we decide it was a good idea to buy
them, because who would think google would drop significantly. We decided
to go with our original investment strategy of blue chip stocks to test out the
game and figure out what we should do later on. Googles Market cap is
$501.94B. Google is in the technology sector and the Internet Information
Providers industry. As of December 2015 year end Google made
$15,826,000,000 in Net income applicable to their common shares. Their
earnings per share is 23.59 and the P/E Ratio is 31.04. Their beta is .860078
and their dividend yield is not announced. Google is a leader in their industry
and at the time seemed like a very safe investment. At the time we were
very new to the investment world and didnt consider all of the factors of the
market. We now know that many different things can affect even the largest
of stocks. We started off buying 500 shares of google at $807.55/share.
within hours we were already losing a significant amount of money. we kept
in however and figured we would just be able to ride out the loss. After the
stock dropped around 100 points in a little over a week we became very
worried. We then decide at this point because we were in last place we had
nothing to lose. We bought 3 times as many shares more of google for
$710.01/share hoping to cut our losses and break even. So now owning 2000
shares of Google we had about have of our cash solely invested in Google.
Our new risky investment strategy paid off and google ended up rising to
$742.87/share and we sold them all off for a gain. Our total profit on the
stock is $16,950
Tableau Software
Tableau Software Inc provides business analytics software products. . It
offers Tableau Desktop, a self-service analytics product that empowers
people to access and analyze data independently; and Tableau Server, a
business intelligence platform with data management, scalability, and
security to foster sharing of analytics, as well as to improve the
dissemination of information across an organization and promote improved
decision-making.
Amazon
Our reasoning for adding Amazon to our portfolio is very simple. We
were asking our professor what some smart investments were and she told
us to either invest or short large companies like Amazon. We took her advice
and decided to short Amazon that day.
Amazons Market cap is 292.74B and is in the catalog and mail order
houses industry. They have an EPS of 1.25 and a P/E ratio of 496.6. They
have a beta of 1.62588 and they have no announced dividend yield. We took
our professors advice and shorted 1000 shares of Amazon for $552.67 at
first things were looking great and we were looking like we were going to
make some serious profits off of it. Then a day went by and we were quickly
in the red zone. We waited and waited for the stock to drop and it just
wouldnt go down. Finally amazon took a hit and the stock price fell to
$551.80 and though it wasnt the huge profit we wanted we decided to get
out in the green and turn some sort of profit. We made a small $870 profit
or .16% return on investment.
Avid Technology
We were looking through articles one day and found one that said
technology was on the rise and that a company called Avid Technology
whose price was very low at the time was going to rise significantly. The
stocks price was under 10 dollars and we decided that if it was going to go
up like the article had said then we should buy a few thousand shares in
them and try to make some serious money off of them as they are a riskier
stock.
Avid has a market cap of 235.03M and is in the technology industry.
They have an EPS of .05 and a P/E ratio of 128.91. They have a beta of
1.87423 which means they are much riskier than the market and they have
no announced dividend yield. We saw that Avids price was low at just $7.13
so we decided to make an investment of 3000 shares hoping to make some
money. We were quickly surprised with how much the stock was going up
and was getting close to $8 a share so we decided to leave it alone and wait
for it to stop going up. We were then surprised again in a negative way when
the stock fell to below our purchase price and we decided that it was so late
in the game that we would ride it out until the end and we ended up taking a
loss of $3,450 when the shares dropped to $5.98 giving us a total loss of
16.12%. This stock was very tricky to judge because of the beta and we
know now that we should have pulled out of it when we had the chance and
made a profit.
Panera
We had noticed that Paneras stock was at a 52 week high because
they had reported higher than expected quarterly returns. We decided that
even though their stock was at a high point that they would eventually start
to go back down so we decided to short their stock. We hoped that because
their stock was worth a lot and like others it would fluctuate in higher dollar
amounts and earn us a large sum of money if we were able to sell at the
right point.
Panera has a market cap of 5.09B and is in the Specialty eatries
industry. Panera has an EPS of 5.79 and a P/E ratio of 35.58. They have a
very low beta of .043889 and have no announced dividend yield. We decide
that Panera had hit its high point and would so go down so we shorted 2000
shares of them for $211.5. After we had done this the stock climbed a little
as expected but then jumped even further and we were down several
thousand dollars. We tried to stay calm at this point and just ride it out
knowing that they couldnt possibly keep up these high numbers for long
based on history and their past financials. Waiting really paid off for us in the
end and we covered our shares for $209.29 which was a 1% gain on our
initial investment and earned us $4,420.
It brought our portfolio to the red and we were scared. The next week when
the market opened things started looking much better and our portfolio was
back at over 100 thousand in profit and IBB was only down $16,000. We were
happy to see it going up when all of the sudden not 10 minutes later it was
back at $60,000 in the hole so we went against our strategy and pulled out
for a loss. We pulled out at $254.86 dollars a share giving us a $62,850 loss
or a 5.43% loss. If we had just followed our investment strategy the stock is
now trading at $281.62 and was around this when the game ended. We
would have seen huge returns but we got scared of taking even more of a hit
and losing all of our profits and let our emotions get the best of us.
good friday but didnt realize the market was closed so we had to wait until
market open on monday and over the weekend through after hours trading
the stock jumped to $24.55 so instead of buying the 10,000 shares at $20 we
bought them at the open price. We still ended up making a hefty $28,000
dollar profit on them when we sold their stock for $27.35 a share gaining
11.41% on our investment.
LinkedIn
Our next stock that we really saw an upside to was LinkedIn. LinkedIn
came out with terrible earnings for the year. They had to give up a part of
their company that they thought would generate a lot of revenue for them.
This combination of variables totally dropped their price by 44% in one day,
and eventually 51% total. We bought LinkedIn at $114.37 after the huge
initial fall. We didnt expect the price to fall even farther but we were not
surprised. We were losing $12,000 pretty quick, but we figured the company
couldnt completely die and had to rebound. The bad part about LinkedIn is
that they make most of their money off of applications through advertising.
That is not a very solid way to make money, but their price just seemed like
it would rebound. LinkedIn is a technology corporation that provides internet
information. They have a market cap of 15.54B dollars. They have a Beta of
1.42648 which makes them a riskier company. They dont have a set P/E ratio
because of where their money comes from. They have a bad EArnings per
share of -1.29. They have a negative net income of (166.14M). They have a
recorded growth of 34% of revenue per quarter but the current theme
doesnt seem to match up to that. We really wanted to see a profit on
LinkedIn and we waited it out. We sold at 114.95 and made a small profit, but
at least it wasn't a loss. LinkedIn didnt rebound to the high $150 or $180
that analysts thought they would so we were happy that we just didnt lose
money.
Bunge Inc.
One of the most fun companies that we invested in was Bunge Inc. It's
a fun story to tell on BG. We were doing research and found BG in an article. I
looked for the ticker and it happened to be wrong from what we were
reading. The other BG was a failing oil company from England. So we punch
in on yahoo finance, BG, and found this surging agricultural company. They
were raising in price at a very fast rate so we wanted to execute a day trade.
We thought that the stock would be sold at the end of the day, but that's not
what happened. Over the next couple days, we watched the price skyrocket.
We bought in at $50.44 per share and bought 10,000 shares. The price
skyrocketed and if we had sold at the point we said we should have; we
would have made about $22,800. When we bought BG we didnt really look
at their financials. We were investing off of emotion for a short term
investment. BG is an agricultural company that has farms all over the
western hemisphere. They have a 7.69B market cap. They also have a strong
P/E of 10.63. BG has a 5.07 earnings per share. Bunge has a net income of
703M. They seem pretty strong as an agricultural company. Their biggest
competitors are Tyson Foods Inc. and Archer-Daniels-Midland Company. Bunge is
up and coming though. Bunge did take a steep dive that we hadnt foreseen
and they were losing us money out of nowhere. We waited for them to climb
back up and that's when we decided to sell. we made about $5000 after we
sold at $50.95 per share. Today their price is up to almost $54 per share, so
we are a little sad about that.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
One of our best investing moves was when our portfolio was being
killed by google and we needed to make up some cash. Earlier in class we
had talked about shorting. Making a successful short would be beyond
awesome. Like if we had shorted Google instead of buy, we would have
made a ton of money. We didnt though, but knew we had to find success
somewhere. We started reading online and we found a pharmaceutical
company that looked like they were about to take a tumble. Valeant
Pharmaceuticals had just been investigated for accounting fraud. For some
reason people were investing heavily in the company, but they reached a
peak. They peaked at around $83, and we shorted them at $82.95. It was
one of the best decisions we have made. We almost sold after almost making
only $4000, but we couldnt figure out what to do. This was a blessing in
disguise. VRX has a market cap of 22.18B. They also have an extremely high
P/E ratio of 37.33. Their Beta is .05812. That is rather odd since we really
havent seen something so low. VRX has an earnings per share of 1.74. They
have a net income of $605.10M and growth of 35% revenue per quarter. The
growth might be inaccurate because their price has dropped significantly. We
ended up covering the short at $77.75 which gave us a $26,050 profit. We
are very proud of that even though their price has fallen even further.
Netflix
Netflix was one of the first investments that our team made in the
game. We made this decision for a couple of reasons. Probably the biggest
reason is that it's a very large blue chip stock that has very strong financials
in the CATV Systems. Netflix has a market capitalization of $44.41B. They
are a very stable stock with a Beta of .977426. They have an extremely high
P/E ratio of 370.21. This is extremely important for investors and makes
them very highly appealing. They can pay back their debt at a very high rate
so it makes them very safe. Their EPS is kinda low at .28. This could improve
but they havent released dividends so that is why it could be so low. Netflix
was a positive start for our portfolio. We bought them at $91.81 for 1000
shares and just waited to see what would happen. Our team was in the
learning phase and we saw ups and down on the stock. The market was very
hard in the beginning, so we didnt see green for probably 3 weeks to a
month. As the market turned around, the price went up and we locked in our
gains at $95.59. The growth on the stock was 4.12%, which our team was
very happy with.
Toyota
As the project started to wrap up, we needed to try to make some
moves to grow our portfolio even further. We thought that the auto industry
was going to keep climbing even though oil prices were back on the rise. We
decided to invest in Toyota. They are a major auto manufacturer and have
very quality and highly rated vehicles. Toyota is very large with a market
capitalization of 156.29B. They are a company that is almost too big to fail
and is very safe. They have a beta of .591013. This means that they are
about half as volatile as the market. Toyota has a P/E ratio of 7.74. This is a
good thing. It means that they can easily pay back debt and it didnt look like
they could slip up anytime soon. They have a dividend yield of 3.26 (3.23%).
Toyota has a strong earnings per share of 13.14. That is a pretty good
number for investors. Even though Toyota is supposed to be a safe
investment, we didnt seek success. Right before the project ended, we saw
a huge fall in the price of Toyota. We went from seeing gains of almost $8000
to -$30,000 at its worst in the matter of a day. We had bought Toyota at
$108.47. The price had gone up until we saw the market crash in the auto
industry. That is when the price fell and we ended at $100.66. That was a
-7.2% growth on the stock which we really needed to do well. The market
hurt us on that but we still had good returns elsewhere in the project.
Honda
Honda was on the same track as Toyota for our investment ideology.
We knew that the Asian auto manufacturers were probably safer. Honda is
one of the highest rated vehicles in the world. They are insanely popular
because of their value. Honda was a company we thought wouldnt fall and
would continue to grow. We figured that people will start to buy cars as
spring comes so that they can enjoy them in summer. Honda seemed like a
no brainer as a stable and prosperous company. Honda has a market
capitalization of 48.96B. This isnt as large as Toyota, but Honda is still
growing as a company. Honda has a very safe P/E ratio of 10.55. They can
easily pay back debt. Honda is not as strong in their earnings per share
which is only 2.56. Honda is a little more volatile than the market with a beta
of 1.08713. They have a dividend yield of .77 (2.92%). They are still growing
as a company and they seem pretty strong in their financials so we thought
we would see a positive return. Unfortunately, at the same time that Toyota
crashed, so did Honda. Their price didnt fall as hard but there was still a
negative gain that we just didnt have enough time to rebound from. We
bought Honda at $27.67 for 4000 shares and sold at $26.40. This gave us a
-4.59% growth on that stock. We had lost quite a bit of gains when the
market crashed that day. Honda could have been a great investment and if
there was more time I think that we would have seen a positive gain.
quite a bit of money at first. We bought the stock at $2.31 for 20,000 shares. The
price did go under $2.00, but the stock never sold off. This happened to be a good
thing because the stock rebounded. Towards the end of the project we were set to
make about $12,800 and we wanted to sell. We pushed it off to see if we could get
any more gains and then the market crashed. This was the same time that Toyota
and Honda tanked as well. The price really went down and we lost a lot of the profit
we would have made. We ended up selling at $2.34. The stock grew about 1.3%. We
had a return of only $600. That was very unfortunate for the amount of gains we
could have locked in.
off over 5000 employees by 2020. This seemed like a bad news article so we
decided to short Boeing at the end of the project. We shorted Boeing at
$128.59. This seemed like a good idea even if you look at Boeings strong
financials.
Boeing has a market capitalization of 85.91B. They have a very strong
P/E ratio of 17.43. This means they can pay back debt at a very high rate.
Boeing also has strong Earnings per share of 7.44 and a dividend yield of
4.36 (3.41%). Boeing is a little more volatile than the market with a beta of
1.28465. Even with the strong financials we decided to short them. It ended
up paying off. We had shorted 5000 shares of Boeing and covered the price
at $127.52. We made a .85% overall growth which returned us $5,350. This
was a solid investment in the end. It gave us quick capital which we needed
at the end of the time period.
Caterpillar Inc.
Cummins Inc.
Cummins was another investment that we got into early in
the trading period. Cummins is a company that manufactures diesel and
natural gas engines, and is part of the Diversified Machinery industry.
Cummins has 55,200 employees, is headquartered in Columbus Indiana
where Thomas Linbarger, the CEO, runs the company. Cummins was
established in 1919 something that we took into consideration when
investing, figuring that a company that has lasted almost 100 years is a
pretty safe investment. One of the main reasons why we invested in
Cummins was because of the lucrative deal that they had with Nissan,
Cummins was to supply Nissan with engines for its flagship pick-up truck the
Titan. Cummins main competitors are Navistar International Corporation, and
Caterpillar Inc.
whole, we recognized that cost for the airline industry was greatly decreased
thanks to cheap oil. Compared to its competitors American Airlines, and
Delta Air Lines Southwest is a new company being founded in 1967.
Southwest Airlines has a market capitalization of 28.39
billion compared to American Airlines and Delta Air lines market
capitalization of 23.22 and 36.04 billion respectively. This puts Southwest as
the second largest airline company in our portfolio. Southwest has a beta of
1.28386 which is about the average of our portfolio. American Airline and
Delta have betas of 3.85 and 1.08635 respectively, once again Southwest is
in the middle of the pack of its competitors.
We saw good returns in our portfolio for most of the airline
companies that we held however, Southwest was our biggest winner with a
return of $11,325 a return of 11.44% before dividends. We received 187.50
in dividends bringing the total return to $11,512.50 which is a return of
11.63%. This return was thanks to buying 2500 shares at $39.59 and selling
at $44.12 a share. We held Southwest for a period of 35 days, if growth was
sustained at the same rate for a year we would see a return of 309.5%
return. Once annualized returns like this are not realistic and the high
annualized return is a due to our ability to find large growth in a short
amount of time, Southwest has now stabilized at around 44 dollars a share.
American Airlines
American Airlines is an airline company with an impressive
fleet of planes totaling well over twelve hundred. American airlines is in the
Major Airlines industry and is headquartered in Fort Worth Texas. The CEO is
William Douglas Parker, and he is just one of the 118,500 people employed
by American Airlines. American Airlines much like Southwest was part of our
investment into the Airline industry as a whole. American Airliners main
competitors are Delta Airlines, and United Continental Holdings (a
conglomerate of United Airlines and Continental).
American Airlines has a market capitalization of 23.22
billion, compared its competitors Delta Airlines, and United Continental
Holdings with market capitalizations of 36.04 billion and 19.08 billion
respectively. American airlines is the third largest airline company that was in
our portfolio after Delta airlines, and Southwest. American Airlines has a beta
of 3.85 making it the most volatile company in our portfolio and is
significantly higher than its competitors Delta and Continental which have
betas of 1.08635 and .0823943 respectively. The extremely high beta of
American Airlines was a concern for us before investing, however after
changing our investment strategy risk tolerance to high we made the
decision to go ahead with American Airlines.
That decision to go ahead and make the investment into
American Airlines ended up paying off for us in the end with a return of
$1,975 before dividend and $2,225 with dividends. The growth of the stock
was small in comparison to others on our portfolio, but because we
purchased 2500 shares of American Airlines the little change in price was
enough to give us a decent dollar return. To show how little the growth was
we bought into American Airlines as $40.10 and sold at $40.89 our high
volume coupled with a dividend payout helped to achieve a modest 1.97%
return before dividends and 2.21% after dividends. We held American
Airlines for a holding period of 15 days which gives us an annualized return
of 160.76%. We were able to use the low price of oil to make quick gains in
the airline industry but returns like these are not sustainable for a whole
year, and the market has stabilized at around 38.30 a share.
Delta Airlines
Delta Airlines was founded in 1924, and is currently
headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia where it runs one of the largest airliner
business in the world with a market capitalization of just over 36 billion
dollars. Delta is considered to be in the Major Airlines industry, and is also
one of our purchases as part of our investment into the Airline industry. With
a company the size of Delta we felt that it would be a good idea to carry a
titan like this in the airliner industry. Some of Deltas competitors are United
Continental, and American Airlines. The current CEO for Delta Airlines is
Richard Anderson who also sits as Director, he is one of 82,949 employed by
Delta Airlines.
Delta Airlines has a market capitalization of 36.04 billion
making it the largest of our airline industry holdings. Delta competitors
United and American Airlines have market capitalizations of 19.08 and 23.22
billion respectively, making Delta nearly double its next competitor in market
capitalization. Delta falls short of United with a beta of 1.08635 for Delta and
a beta of .0823943 for United, American Airlines is a much more volatile at a
beta of 3.48. With a huge beta of 3.85 in our airline industry holdings we
need more airline companies like Delta with relatively low betas to lower our
average beta.
Delta was one of the investments in our airline holdings
that ended up losing money for us, for a while it was a steady earner but a
plunge in the market quickly forced us to sell at a loss. Although we did lose
money, we were able to cap our losses at -$1,912.50 after dividend and
$2,250 before dividend. We bought into Delta Airlines with 2500 shares at a
price of $47.19 and sold it for $46.29 a -1.907% loss before dividends and a
loss of -1.62% after dividends. If the deflation of the shares valued continued
at this rate constant for a year we would see an annualized return of -14.16%
but thanks to the continued low price of oil Delta was able to stabilize its
price at around $46 a share.
JetBlue
JetBlue is an airline company in the Regional Airlines industry, they
are headquartered in Long Island City, New York. JetBlue is a fairly young
company, it was founded in 1998, making it the youngest airline company in
our portfolio. JetBlues CEO Robin Hayes takes on some serious competition
such as Southwest and American Airlines. JetBlue is another component of
our top down strategy of investing, which lead us to invest in JetBlue and
other airline companies.
JetBlue has a market capitalization of 6.15 billion making it the
smallest of our airline holdings. JetBlue's competition Delta and American
Airlines have market capitalizations of significantly more of 36.30 and 23.63
billion. Beta is where JetBlue really shines compared to the competition,
JetBlue has a beta of .532371 which compared to Deltas 1.08635 and
American Airlines 3.85, makes JetBlue a really safe company to invest in.
We bought 2,500 shares of JetBlue at an initial price of $21.60 making
our total initial investment $54,000. JetBlue was one of the two airline stocks
that we lost money on, when the game closed on April 8th we had a loss on
the books of -$5,575 which is a loss of -10.32%. Unfortunately, we did not
have any dividends to soften the blow of selling the stock at $19.37 a loss of
$2.23 per share. JetBlue was our biggest lost for the airline industry, if we
had more time to trade we decided that we would of sold JetBlue due to the
rising fuel cost for airline companies.
Domino's Pizza
Dominos is the world's second biggest pizza chain, operating over
twelve thousand stores in nearly 80 different countries worldwide. Dominos
is in the restaurant industry where it employees 11,900 people who deliver
pizza and other prepared food products to consumers. Founded in 1960 by
the Monaghans brother in Michigan, Dominos Pizza is now run by their CEO
pretty sure that any investor would be happy with making almost six
thousand dollars in five hours.
Herbalife
Herbalife is a nutrition company that develops and sells weight
management products such as healthy meals and snacks, and is considered
part of the personal products industry. Herbalife was founded in 1980 and is
based in Grand Cayman which is in the Cayman Islands. Herbalifes CEO
Michael O. Johnson and is one of 8,000 employed by Herbalife. We shorted
Herbalife after reading an article talking about Herbalife being investigated
for possible federal securities law violations. We know that a serious
accusation like this would hurt the value of Herbalife's stocks. The only
publicly traded competition is GNC which is another nutrition company
selling similar products.
Herbalife has a market capitalization of 5.61 billion a huge market
capitalization for the industry. Compared to competitors like GNC with a
market capitalization of 2.36 billion, Herbalife is a titan company in its
industry, the industry average market capitalization is 1.79 billion. Herbalife
has a beta of 1.42453 a fairly high beta compared to GNC beta .73849. It is
hard to get a good comparison of Herbalife with similar business because
there are so few companies being publicly traded that have similar products,
GNC was the only competitor that I was able to find that was truly
comparable.
Home Depot
The Home Depot was one of the last investments we made before the
ending of the trading period, and is one of two investments that we have in
home improvement stores. The Home Depot is a company that sells various
home improvement products and building materials to the do it yourselfers
and professional contractors. Home Depot was founded in 1978 and has
grown to a company with over 385,000 full time employees. We invested in
Home Depot expecting to see growth from the increased sales that Home
Depot sees during the spring season. Home Depot has a couple of main
competitors the biggest being Lowe's Company, and BMC.
Home Depot has an impressive market capitalization of 168.18 billion
well over the industry average of 4.10 billion. Lowes and BMC have market
capitalizations of 67.96 and 1.11 billion, this is a great way of showing how
high Home Depot market capitalization. Home Depots beta of .99085 is
lower than both of its competitor and is just another reason why investing in
Home Depot is fairly safe company to be investing in. For comparison Lowes
has a beta of 1.11327 and BMC has a beta of 1.702 both of which are higher
than Home Depots.
We invested in Home Depot with a relatively small amount of capital
purchasing just one thousand shares at an initial price of $133.65. We held
Home Depot until the end of trading closing at a price of $133.62 per share.
If we had more time for trading we would have been able to realize the gains
that come along Home Depots busy season, since the end of trading Home
Depots stock saw a growth of $0.73 a share. However, the return on our
books at the end of the trading period was a negative return. We closed out
at a price of $133.62 giving us a loss of $0.03 a share for a total loss of
$30.00 a loss of less than half of a percent.
Return on Portfolio
Over the course of the project our team had a total gain of $65,821.
After commissions we came away with $65,241. This was a modest return
with 5.2 holding periods. After you equate the return, we had a 2.17% return
with commission and a 2.19% return without commission. If we were to hold
our money for 1, 3, and 5 years with commission, we would get returns of
11.84%, 39.88%, and 74.96%. That would come out to $72,964, $91,259,
and $114,143. If we held our money for 1, 3, and 5 years without
commission we would get returns of 11.95%, 40.29%, and 75.82%. This
would give us returns of $73,865, $92,343, and $115,725.
S&P 500
Throughout our trading period we had one goal, to beat the S&P 500 in
overall returns. We started out behind the S&P 500 in the beginning almost
immediate losses, however for most of the trading period we lead the S&P
500. However, towards the end of the trading period we began to fall behind
the S&P 500 due to some poor investments such as our biotech ETF we
invested in. At the end of the trading period the S&P had an overall return of
5.71% from 2/1/2016 to 4/8/2016. The effective annual return calculates out
to a return of 34.73% percent, this is calculated under the assumption that
the growth experienced in our holding period stays constant for the year.
This high return of over 34% is highly unrealistic is a product of having a
short holding period that fell on an upswing for the S&P 500. The historical
average annual return since the inception of the S&P 500 is around 7% after
being adjusted for inflation.
Portfolio Beta
The Beta of a stock is something that helps investors to
better understand the risk that they are taking on by investing in stocks.
Beta specifically measures the volatility of the stock in comparison to the
market as a whole, a beta of one means that the stock will be exactly as
volatile as the market, while a beta of 1.2 would mean that a stock is around
20% more volatile than the market. If you average out our portfolios beta
you get 1.2274 which would indicate that our portfolio is around 22% more
volatile than the Market. Our highest beta is Acadia Pharmaceuticals with a
beta of 3.16764, on the other side of the spectrum is Dominos Pizza with a
beta of .052393. In order to get a more accurate reading of what our beta
truly is for our portfolio, you need to calculate the weighted beta. Weighted
beta takes into effect the amount invested, giving us a clearer picture of our
portfolios true beta. When calculated out, our weighted beta comes out to be
1.06285. Looking at the weighted beta we can see that it is much lower than
our average beta of 1.2274. Comparing our portfolio to the market we can
see that we would be considered about 6% more volatile than the market.
Bear/Bull Analysis
Google bear/bull analysis: Bear Google despite being a larger company
doesnt give out regular dividend payouts, they are also in an industry that
doesnt actually create or sell a real product so numbers can be
misconstrued. Bull Google has the largest volume after they passed Apple
in early February and have a very safe beta of just .908401.
Cliffs Natural Resources bear/bull analysis: Bear CLF has a negative
EPS of -5.13 and this can be very off putting when purchasing a stock, they
are also a very small stock only trading at a few dollars a share and has the
possibility of just not existing or being bought out Bull their beta is not too
high at only 1.39236 it can be a little risky but the riskier the stock the more
money that can be made from the investment.
Tableau Software bear bull analysis: Bear Tableau software has an EPS
of -1.17 and having a negative EPS is not a very good sign for investors and
is also small relative to the size of their competitors. Bull they have a larger
quarterly growth than competitors and have a higher gross margin of profit.
Amazon bear/bull analysis: Bear Amazon has half of the market cap of
its main competitor Apple and significantly less net income. Bull Amazon
has a higher quarterly growth rate than their competitors and a positive EPS
of 1.25.
Avid Technology bear/bull analysis: Bear Avid is below the market cap
of the industry average and has a negative quarterly growth rate. Also they
compete against much larger companies like Apple and Adobe. Bull they
have a higher gross profit margin than the industry average and although it
is small have a positive EPS of .05.
Panera bear/bull analysis: Bear Panera has a slowing growth rate and
is well below the industry's average, they are also getting beat in market cap
significantly by Starbucks. Bull They have a high EPS of 5.79 and their gross
profit margin is higher than its competitors.
iShares NASDAQ biotechnology ETF bear/bull analysis: Bear has a YTD
return of -22.87% and only profitable in the long term. Bull they have a 3
year return of 17.82% and have a relatively low beta of 1.08 making them
fairly safe,
Acadia Pharmaceuticals bear/bull analysis: Bear They have a low
market cap compared to their main competitors and have a negative
quarterly growth of -.065 Bull they just released a new drug that had never
been approved before.
most of its competitors net margins of 15.61%; American Airlines has a very good
quick ratio of .64 which compared to the industry as a whole is good.
Delta Airlines bear/bull analysis: Bear Delta airlines net margin of 10.31% is
fairly low when compared to competitors like Americans Airlines with a net margin
of 17.85%; Deltas P/E of 8.21 is pretty low when compared to the industry average
of 16.19. Bull Delta had a strong revenue last fourth quarter with a total revenue of
$9,502,000,000.00; Delta Airlines has a strong market capitalization at over 36
billion, making it the largest airline company in our portfolio
JetBlue bear/bull analysis: Bear JetBlue lost the bid for the acquisition of
Virgin America hurting their expansion plans; JetBlue has begun a drop in stock
price nearing its 52-week low. Bull JetBlue showed a fourth quarter growth of
10.24% which was well over the industry average of 2.33%; JetBlue also has shifted
its growth plans to expand on premium service flights, which have much higher
profit margins than standard coach.
Dominos Pizza bear/bull analysis: Bear Dominos stock price of around $130
a share is at a huge premium compared to other comparable operations such as
Papa Johns stock price of around $55; Dominos Pizza is outgrowing the industry by
a very wide margin and runs the risk of seeing a sizable drop in operating results
and not living up to the expectations that people have for its operating results. Bull
Dominos Pizza has a profit margin of 8.70% almost double its competitor Papa
Johns profit margin of 4.62%. Domino's only owns less than 10% of its stores with
the rest being franchises, helping corporate minimize risk and maximize profits.
Herbalife bear/bull analysis: Bear For the size of Herbalifes market
capitalization the company has a relatively low net income, the spread between
Herbalifes net income and GNC is approximately 100 million even though Herbalife
has more than twice the market capitalization as GNC; Herbalifes brand has a bad
reputation of having a sales structure similar to that of a pyramid scheme. Bull
Herbalife has a strong P/E ratio of 15.24 when compared to GNCs 12.23; Herbalife
also has a strong EPS of 3.97 trumping GNCs EPS of 2.60.
Home Depot bear/bull analysis: Bear Home Depot much like Herbalife has a
huge advantage in market capitalization over competitors like Lowes, but only
shows a revenue stream of around $28 billion over Lowes a company with less than
half the market capitalization of Home Depot; Lowes leads Home Depot in P/E ratio
with a spread of 3.13. Bull Home Depot saw a growth in quarterly revenue (yoy) of .
10 over three time the industry average of .03 and a little less than half of Lowes .
06 growth; Even with a relatively low revenue, Home Depot still has more than
double Lowes net income.
Netflix bear/ bull analysis: Bear Netflix doesnt have a strong earnings per
share. They also dont release dividends. This might turn investors away if they like
companies who release dividends. Netflix now has a huge competition with HBO GO,
Amazon Prime, and Hulu. These companies are creeping up in the competition
because they offer certain shows and deals that Netflix doesnt have. Bull Netflix is
a blue chip stock. Investors are always going to want to hold Netflix and believe in
their growth. Netflix has very strong market capitalization and P/E ratio. Netflix is a
prime stock for continued growth.
United Technologies Corporation bear/ bull analysis: Bear UTX is a company
primarily based on technology with airplanes. That means that they are in heavy
competition with Boeing. This can put a strain on their competition. UTX can be
heavily weighed down by its competition with Boeing and trends to the market. Bull
UTX has a very limited downside. They have extremely strong financials across the
board. They release dividends which investors like. Yahoo finance reports that there
is very little downside to UTX and they are a strong company that should continue
to grow.
LinkedIn bear/ bull analysis: Bear LinkedIn is a strange company. They dont
make money off by practical means. They make money because of services they
provide where they charge fees. This makes them have a lot more debt than most
companies and their price gets bloated because of market trends. LinkedIn had a
huge crash at the beginning of the year because of their weak financials. Bull
LinkedIn doesnt have a lot of positivity to the stock. They do have a reputation
though. People think that technology companies are strong and there is faith in the
market. LinkedIn had a high price so people dont want to see it fail.
Bunge Inc. bear/bull analysis: Bear Bunge is an agricultural company which
means it might not have the highest earnings compared to manufacturers. Bunge
has a very heavy competition with Tyson Foods who have a very big lead over them
in capitalization. Bunge depends on the climate and growing seasons for profit,
which is highly subject to volatility. Bull Bunge handles their debt really well. They
are an up and comer and are doing the right things. They have a strong P/E ratio
and show strong earnings per share. Bunge should continue to grow into the future
with their strong financials.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals bear/ bull analysis: Bear VRX is an incredibly weak
company right now. They faced massive negative media attention for their last CEO.
They were riddled with accounting problems and bad financials. We think they lied
about true financials and their price took a nosedive from $82.95 to a little above
$27. This was good for us since we shorted them. VRX is having trouble hiring a new
CEO and still has a bad reputation. Bull VRX does have one thing going for them.
Everyone needs pharmaceutical drugs for their health. As long as they do the
damage control the right way, then they should see an increase in their price. They
need to handle their debt better even though they have a measure strong P/E ratio.
VRX has an upside potential if they make the right moves in the coming months and
years.
Toyota bear/ bull analysis: Bear The market is going into the green section
for automobiles. This can put a strain on car makers to have eco-friendly technology
for a reasonable price. The Prius is a good vehicle but has a high price that they
should reevaluate. Toyota is a victim of the market with the oil industry. If the oil
price keeps going back up, then this could hurt Toyota. Bull Toyota has a very good
reputation on their cars. They last long and have a good resale value. Toyota has
incredibly strong financials which make it a solid choice for investors. Toyota
shouldnt take too steep of a dive after it crashed our portfolio because of their
strong financials. They look like a steady company to invest into the future.
Honda bear/ bull analysis: Bear Like Toyota, Honda is a victim of the oil
market. Honda isnt a very large company like Toyota either. They dont have the
strong financials of their biggest competitors. This could squeeze them and make
growth slower than normal. Honda has a very low EPS which could be a problem for
investors looking for solid growth. Bull Honda is becoming a more popular company.
It seems that everyone wants Civics these days. Honda has incredible resale value
and are a top rated vehicle manufacturer. They have strong financials even though
they arent as big as competitors. Honda is a good stock to invest in and they
should see major growth over the next five years.
Ocwen Financial Corp. bear/ bull analysis: Bear Ocwen is a very small
company. They dont have the strongest financials. They have a negative EPS which
spells trouble. Ocwen might not be a very good company investors want to look at
since the whole mortgage crisis a couple years ago. They have weak financials
across the board and they are very new. Bull OCN have a low price and are a new
company so they could have an upside. Over the next few years, if they show
potential, they could grow a significant amount. The price is very low so investors
might want to buy a ton of that stock to make gains off of any growth. OCN could be
the next big financial company and the housing market continues to improve. They
focus off of mortgages so this is a good thing for them.
The Boeing Company bear/ bull analysis: Bear Boeing has been in a bit of a
decline in sales. The planes coming out last longer so they arent generating the
amount of sales as usual. The price of oil is also going back up, which means that
their prices will also go up. They are in a good competition with UTX as well. Boeing
is set to lay off thousands of workers by 2020 which might hurt them in the short
run on headlines. Bull Boeing has extremely good financials. They are a very strong
and old company with huge brand recognition. They currently made a deal to make
golf clubs using extra scrap. This turns waste into profit. Boeing might also strike a
deal to make jets for Iran in the next few years which could be huge for the airplane
giant. Boeing has impressive financials and a huge upside. They will not be down in
the market for long because investors will enjoy the benefits of owning Boeing.
Lowes Companies Inc. bear/ bull analysis: Bear Lowes is a solid company
but they fall behind to Home Depot. People have a lot better brand loyalty to Home
Depot. This hurts Lowes in the long run. Lowes doesnt have the size of Home
Depot so they are affected by changes in the market a lot more severely. Lowes
also has a very low EPS which is concerning. Bull Lowes still has very strong
financials. They have a solid P/E ratio and can handle debt very well. They are very
good sponsors so they get good brand recognition. Lowes has a very big upside of
selling a wide range of appliances and services for those products. The home
improvement market is always going up because everyone like to do remodels and
buy newer appliances. Lowes is a strong company who should continue to climb
higher in price and break their 52 week high.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths- First we are very well diversified investing in many different
types of industries. We also like to mix our portfolio with risky and less risky stocks
to insure that we are still playing it safe just with an added chance to make a large
return on investment.
Weaknesses- Some of our stocks have an extremely high beta and can be
very volatile at times. Human error based on emotions and constant fluctuation of
the market.
Opportunities- Some opportunities we had were missed during our game.
Several times we could have easily made more money on stocks if we had just
trusted our strategy and stuck with it even though the market was sinking.
Threats- Some threats to our company would be the low prices of oil
affecting the transportation industry. Also companies that falsified earnings like
google really hurt us towards the beginning. The last threat would be new drugs
being proven bad by the FDA as almost a third of our portfolio was in the health
industry.