Inspection Decisions

Part 5

Optimizing Condition-based
Maintenance (CBM) Decisions
CBM Strategies (7.1)
Estimating RUL (7.2)
The EXAKT model (7.3)
Case Studies (7.4)
Andrew K.S.Jardine
Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering
University of Toronto
Canada, M5S 3G8
jardine@mie.utoronto.ca
.

October , 2002

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A.K.S. Jardine

Smart Condition Monitoring

1. Engineering Approaches: physics of failure
2. SPC Models: Trending
3. Expert Systems: Human-computer
4. Neural Networks: Knowledge discovery
algorithms (data mining, pattern recognition)
5. Optimization Models: Blending risk and economic
considerations

Reference: A.K.S. Jardine, Optimizing Condition-Based Maintenance Decisions, RAMS 2002, January 28-31, 2002, Seattle, Washington.

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Campbell Soup Company

Analysis of Shear Pump
Bearings Vibration Data
21 vibration measurements
(covariates) provided by
accelerometer
Using <EXAKT>:
3 measurements (covariates)
significant
A Check:
Had <EXAKT> model been
applied to previous histories
Savings obtained = 35 %
Source: Jardine, AKS, Joseph, T and Banjevic, D, Optimizing condition-based maintenance decisions for equipment subject to vibration
monitoring , Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 5. No. 3, pp 192-202, 1999.

A.K.S. Jardine

APPROACH USED
HAZARD - RISK OF FAILURE
(PROBABILITY OF FAILURE)
THAT COMBINES

AGE OF EQUIPMENT AND

CONDITION-MONITORING DATA
USING

PROPORTIONAL-HAZARDS
MODEL (PHM)
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Early work with PHM

Source: M. Anderson, A.K.S. Jardine and R.T. Higgins, The use of concomitant variables in reliability estimation,
Modeling and Simulation, Vol. 13, pp. 73-81, 1982.

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Estimated Hazard Rate at Failure

Number
Number

Flight
Fe
FlightHours
Hours Fe

Cr
Cr

Hazard
HazardRate
Rate

11
22

11770
11770
11660
11660

55
22

66
66

0.043
0.043
0.012
0.012

33
4*
4*

8460
8460
12630
12630

12
12
88

2.4
2.4
11

0.0071
0.0071
0.0014
0.0014

55
6*
6*

7710
7710
9240
9240

88
22

00
33

0.00094
0.00094
0.00029
0.00029

7*
7*
8*
8*

5660
5660
7190
7190

10
10
22

11
2.5
2.5

0.00020
0.00020
0.000073
0.000073

*Doubtful
*DoubtfulRemoval
Removal

The hazard rate equation is:

r(t)=

4.47
24100

( 24100 )

3.47e (.41z 1 +.98z 2 )

where z1 is Fe concentration and z2 is Cr concentration

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DATA PLOT
Data

Age

RISK PLOT
Risk

Age
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OPTIMAL POLICY - OPTIMAL RISK LEVEL

RISK PLOT

Ignore risk

Risk
Optimal
risk level

Age
Replace at
failure only

COST PLOT
Cost/unit time

minimal cost
optimal risk

Risk

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CONDITION BASED OPTIMAL REPLACEMENT

OF A PRODUCTION SYSTEM
V. Makis and A.K.S. Jardine
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
University of Toronto

V. Makis and A.K.S. Jardine, Optimal Replacement in the Proportional

Hazards Model, INFOR, Vol. 20, pp 172-183, 1992

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We have created a
theory, but in order to
make it work in
practice we need a tool

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Commenced Funding: January 1995

Developed by senior researchers, statisticians, and
programmers at the University of Torontos Condition
Based Maintenance Laboratory.
Underwritten by the governments of Ontario and Canada
and:

Zachry
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A.K.S. Jardine

RESEARCH STAFF
PRINCIPAL INSVESTIGATORS:
Prof. A.K.S. Jardine
Prof. Viliam Makis
RESEARCH STAFF:
Dr. Dragan Banjevic, Project Director
Walter Ni, Programmer Analyst
Murray Wiseman, Research Associate
Dr. Daming Lin, Post Doctoral Fellow
Dr. Gang Li, Post Doctoral Fellow
Jayne Beardsmore, Administrative/ Research Assistant
RESEARCH STUDENTS:
Yan Gao (M.A.Sc )
Yiding Li (M.A.Sc)
Bing Liu (Ph.D)
Miao Qiang (M.A.Sc)

Tian Tang (M.A.Sc)

Jianmou Wu (Ph.D)
Yimin Zhan (Ph.D)
Ali Zuashkiani (Ph.D)
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UNIFICATION OF DATA AND DECISIONS

Age Data
Diagnostic Data

CBM Model

Maintenance
Decisions

CBM OPTIMIZING SOFTWARE

Ref: Banjevic D., Jardine, A.K.S., Makis, V. and M.Ennis., The Optimal Control Policy and the Structure of the Software for
Condition-Based Maintenance, INFOR, 39, pp 32-50 ,2001.

CBM LABORATORY, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

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A.K.S. Jardine

EXAKT : The CBM Optimizer

Two Keys:
?

Risk

Economics

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CONDITION BASED MONITORING - AN ANALOGY

HEART FAILURE
EQUIPMENT
FAILURE
Hazard or Risk = f (Age) + f (Risk factors)
Risk
Riskfactors:
factors:
Oil
Cholesterol
Analysis Level
(Fe, Cu, Al,
Blood
Cr, Pb
Pressure
..etc.)
Vibration
Smoking (Velocity and
Lifestyle
Acceleration)
Thermography
Levels of Protein Constituent
Visual
Homocysteine
Inspection
. .
..
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RISK
? ?1
? t ?
??
??
?
?
?
HAZARD ?t ? ? ? ? ? ? e? 1z1 t ? ...? ? n zn t
? ?

Failures/op.hour
Failure/flying hour
Failures/km.
Failures/ton
Failures/cycle

Contribution of age
to hazard

Contribution of condition
information to hazard

0.483
? 1.483 ??? t ??? e0.0518Fe ? 1.867 Al ? 0.01183Mg
148790 ? 148790?

ECONOMIC
Cf = C+K : Total cost of failure replacement
Cp = C : Total cost of preventive replacement

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EXAKT V 3.00 Released in December 2001

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EXAKT Procedures Window

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Oil Analysis Data

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Oil Analysis Events Data

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Summary of PHM Parameters

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Summary of PHM Parameters

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Oil Analysis Decision

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Vibration Monitoring Data

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Vibration Analysis Events Data

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TRANSITION PROBABILITY MATRIX

________________________________________
Inspection Interval = 30 days

Very Smooth
Smooth
Rough
Very Rough
Failure

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Vibration Monitoring Decision

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Warning Limits in ppm

Normal

Warning

Alarm

Al

< 20

20 - 40

> 40

Cr

<10

10 - 20

>20

Cu

<50

50 - 100

>100

Fe

<200

200 - 300 >300

Si

<15

15 - 25

>25
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Measurements & Decision

In Operation

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Cardinal River Coals

Oil Analysis data from 50 Wheel Motors

Twelve covariates
measured
Covariates used: Iron
and Sediment
Estimated Saving in
Maintenance Costs:
22% for cost ratio 3:1

Source: A.K.S. Jardine et al, Optimizing a mine haul truck wheel motors
condition monitoring program", JQME, 2001, pp. 286-301.

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Getting the Data

Using ODBC, there are automated ways of
capturing the necessary data from your CMMS and
condition monitoring records.

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MIMOSA Compliance

www.mimosa.org

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What is
MIMOSA?

Machinery
Information
Management
Open
Systems
Alliance

CRIS
Mapping

Mapping

System A

System B
a data model? Called CRIS. (Common
Relational Information Schema)

33
strctr

A.K.S. Jardine

CBM OPTIMIZATION
Executive Summaries

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Campbell Soup Company

Analysis of Shear Pump
Bearings Vibration Data
21 vibration covariates
provided by accelerometer
Using <EXAKT>:
3 covariates significant
A Check:
Had <EXAKT> model been
applied to previous histories
Savings obtained = 35 %
Source: Jardine, AKS, Joseph, T and Banjevic, D, Optimizing condition-based maintenance decisions for equipment subject to vibration
monitoring , Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 5. No. 3, pp 192-202, 1999.

35

A.K.S. Jardine

Had we replaced at 175 days ..!!!

Failed at WorkingAge = 182 days

Inspection at
WorkingAge = 175 days

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Sasol Plant
Analysis of Warman-Pump
Bearings Vibration Data
Total 8 pumps each with two bearings
(16 bearings) analyzed
12 vibration covariates identified
Using <EXAKT>:
2 covariates significant
Annual replacement cost savings= 42 %
Feedback:
Model results found realistic by Sasol
plant
Significant vibration covariates identified
by <EXAKT> are agreed as a major
problem

Source: P.J. Vlok, J.L. Coetzee. D. Banjevic, A.K.S. Jardine and V. Makis, An Application of Vibration
Monitoring in Proportional Hazards Models for Optimal Component Replacement Decisions, JORS, Vol. 53,
No. 2, pp. 193-202.

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Open Pit Mining Operation

CAT 793B Transmissions Oil data analyzed
Covariates used:
Iron, Aluminum,
Magnesium
Saving in
Maintenance Costs:
25%
Average
replacement time
increase: 13%
Warranty limit could
be increased
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Definition of Problem
Oil Well Pumping System

When should this oil

well pumping system
(casing, sucker rod, and
pump) be replaced,
given inspection data
and events data?
Is it more profitable to
preventively replace, or
run until failure?
39
CBM Lab: University of Toronto

A.K.S. Jardine

The EXAKT
Optimal
CBM Policy
Model
MTTR
failure

$100
40 h

MTTR
planned

$300
10 h

40
Types of CBM optimization models

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Case Study: Paper Mill

Data used was from a variable speed paper mill
At present produces carbonless till receipts

Data was periodically monitored and stored

within the MIMIC 2001 CMM system
10 Year history of the plant
Mainly vibration and running speed

Area called the drier gearbox section

18 identical units
8 failure mode parameters
140 measurements collected over the history

41

Source: R. Willetts, University of Manchester, England

A.K.S. Jardine

Results
The EXAKT analysis
Of the 8 original parameters, 5 vertical and 3
axially, only 2 parameters were needed
Acceleration in the vertical direction
Gear mesh in the axial direction

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Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway

Corporation
Had excessive traction
motor ball bearing
failures
CBM to monitor bearing
grease colour
Changed inspections
from every 3.5 years to
annual
Reduced failures/yr..
From 9 to 1

Reduced total costs by

55%
The reality:
Failures reduced to 2/yr.

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EXAKT Modeling with MWM Diesel Engine

employed on Halifax Class ships.
Maintenance and Diagnostic Data

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Inspections Table

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Condition-based Optimal Replacement Policy

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OPG (Pickering Nuclear Station)

Hydrodyne seals prevent leakage of heavy water during
fuelling operation: Seal Leak Rate data from 4 reactors

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Integrating EXAKT
&
CMMS/EAM/ERP System

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Work orders

WMOD

Modeling
Module

CBM
data

Ins
pe
Ev data ction
ent
dat
a

CMMS

s
ion
cis
De

C
Da ond.
ta

VA+OA+Other
signals
nt
Eve a
Dat

Decision
Models

DMDR

WDEC

Decision
Module
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A Web Agent Site

Mining

Manufacturing

Food and Beverage

Pharmaceutical
Power
Web Agent Deployment

Environmental
Source: M.Wiseman

Pulp and Paper

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AAAV

Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle

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Objectives
Demonstrate Affordable Prognostic System
Wireless, Small, Scalable, Open

Provide Robust Fault Detection

Signal Processing, Identification, Isolation, Severity,
Fidelity

Prognostics for Maintenance Decision Making

Prognosis, Risk, Decision Support

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Prototype System Sensor Placement

-Tachometer
-Vibration and Temperature
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ICHM 20/20
ICHM
Sensor

Sensor Module

ICHM MCU
App.

Self-test

Sensor
Sensor

Signal
Cond.

A/D

Serial
Interface

DSP

HCI

Bluetooth
Radio

Memory
TEDS

120mm x 80mm x 50mm

Supports MIMOSA/OSA CBM
Information Model
Bluetooth Wireless Technology
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AAAV

Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle

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Model Evolution from Prior

Knowledge to Prior Data

The Continuous Improvement Cycle

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Additional CBM References

1. Wiseman, M. Optimizing Condition-Based Maintenance, in Maintenance Excellence:
Optimizing Equipment Life Cycle Decisions, J.D. Campbell and A.K.S. Jardine
(Editors), Marcel Dekker, New York, 2001.
2.Jardine, A.K.S., Makis, V., Banjevic D., Bratejevic,D. and Ennis, M., A Decision
Optimization Model for Condition-Based Maintenance, Journal of Quality in
Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 4, No.2, pp 115-121, 1998
3. Jardine, AKS, Joseph, T and Banjevic, D, Optimizing condition-based maintenance
decisions for equipment subject to vibration monitoring , Journal of Quality in
Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 5. No. 3, pp 192-202, 1999
5..D Banjevic, Jardine, A.K.S., Makis, V. and M. Ennis, The Optimal Control Limit
Policy and the Structure of the Software for Condition- Based Maintenance, INFOR,
2001
6. www.mie.utoronto.ca/cbm (For information about the CBM research activities at the
University of Toronto)
7. www.omdec.com (For information about the EXAKT: CBM Optimization software)

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Summary

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An Overview of EXAKT
Events Data

Inspection Data

EXAKT Modeling
Module
CBM Model
EXAKT Decision
Module
Replacement Recommendation
CBM Lab: University of Toronto

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Some CBM Optimization Studies

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While much research and product

development in the area of
condition based maintenance
focuses on data acquisition and
signal processing, the focus of this
session has been the third and final
step in the CBM process
optimizing the decision making step
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THANK YOU
www.mie.utoronto.ca/cbm
www.omdec.com

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Andrew Jardine
Andrew Jardine is a professor and principal investigator at the ConditionBased Maintenance laboratory in the Department of Mechanical and Industrial
Engineering at the University of Toronto where the EXAKT software has been
developed. He also serves as a Senior Associate Consultant to the Global
Leader of PricewaterhouseCoopersPhysical Asset Management practice. He
has a PhD from the University of Birmingham. He is the author of the
AGE/CON and PERDEC software that is licensed to organizations including
transportation, mining, electrical utilities, and process industries. He wrote the
book, Maintenance, Replacement and Reliability first published in 1973. In
addition to being a sought-after speaker he is a recognized authority in the
world of Reliability Engineering and in the optimization of maintenance
decision making. Professor Jardine was the 1993 Eminent Speaker to the
Maintenance Engineering Society of Australia and in 1998 was the first
recipient of the Sergio Guy Memorial Award from the Plant Engineering and
Maintenance Association of Canada in recognition of his outstanding
contribution to the Maintenance profession. He is the co-editor with JD
Campbell of the 2001 published book Maintenance Excellence: Optimizing
Equipment Life Cycle Decisions.
Tel: +1 (416) 978-2921; E.mail: jardine@mie.utoronto.ca
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