The relation between parameters makes sense.

If the true Y0 is larger, that

means there is more drug in the plasma at time zero. Therefore, the rate
constant is likely to be larger (faster drug elimination). If the true Y0 is smaller
(less drug), there is less drug present so the rate constant is likely to be lower
(slower elimination).

Perspective on Monte Carlo methods

If you are encountering Monte Carlo methods for the first time, you may think
that it is essentially magic. You start with one data set, simulate lots of data
sets that arent really data, and then use the analyses of those simulated data
sets to learn about the uncertainty in the parameters you estimated from the
actual data.
This method has a solid mathematical foundation (plenty of theorems have
been proven) and has been shown to be useful in practice. Although this
method seems strange when you first hear about it, it really does work.

How to perform Monte Carlo simulations with Prism

It isnt hard to do the Monte Carlo simulations with Prism. Use the Simulate
data analysis to generate a simulated data set. Youll need to choose the X
values, the model, the parameters, and the SD of random scatter. For
parameters, enter the best-fit values from fitting your data. For SD of the
random scatter, enter the Sy.x reported by nonlinear regression. Choose
Gaussian error.
This analysis will create a results table with the simulated data. From that
table, click Analyze, choose nonlinear regression, and pick the model and
choices just as if you analyzed the original data.
To simulate 1000 data sets, you need to run a script (a choice on the File
menu). Here is the Prism script we used for the first example:

17. Generating confidence intervals by Monte Carlo simulations

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