AnExperimentInvestigatingtheRetrievabilityofInstances

AbbyBryan
May2016


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TableofContents

Abstract.................................................2
Introduction............................................3
Method..................................................5
Design...........5
Participants...........5
Materials...........6
Procedure...........6
Results....................................................8
Discussion...............................................10
References..............................................11
AppendixA............................................12
AppendixB............................................13
AppendixC............................................14
AppendixD............................................15
AppendixE............................................16
AppendixF............................................17


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Abstract
Thisexperimentalresearchisonretrievabilityofinstances.ItisareplicationofTversky
andKahnemansexperimentonbiasesduetotheretrievabilityofinstancesfrom1974.Theaim
ofthisstudyistoobservewhetherfamiliarityofnameshasaneffectonaparticipants
judgementoffrequencyofacategory,suchassexofpersonalities.Theresearchhypothesis
statesthatthemajorityofparticipantswillerroneouslyjudgethefrequencyofsexofthe
personalitiesfeaturedinthelist.Thisstudyusesanindependentmeasuresdesignand
participantsarearandomsampleofstudentsofbothsexesingrades10and11inaSpanishIII
class.TheresultsdidsupportTverskyandKahnemansoriginalfindingsafterhearingthelistof
personalities,70%ofbothgroupserroneouslyjudgedthefrequencyofsexofthepersonalities
foundinthelist.Itwasconcludedthatresearchconductedwasnottheproperwaytoobserve
retrievabilityofinstances,butwithadifferentprocedure,abetterwaytoobservethisbiascould
beachieved.


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Introduction

SincetheintroductionoftheavailabilityheuristicbyTverskyandKahnemanin1973,a
tremendousamountofresearchbasedinsocialcognitionhassurfaced.TverskyandKahneman
proposed,Whenthesizeofaclassisjudgedbytheavailabilityofitsinstances,aclasswhose
instancesareeasilyretrievedwillappearmorenumerousthanaclassofequalfrequencywhose
instancesarelessretrievable,(Tversky&Kahneman,1974/n.d.,p.1127).Inasimple
demonstrationbyTverskyandKahnemanin1973,(Tversky&Kahneman,Experiment3,1973),
participantswerepresentedwithalistofwordssomewordsbeganwiththeletterrandsome
wordshadanrasthethirdletter.Participantswerefoundtocontributeoverestimatesofthe
numberofwordsbeginningwithrbutunderestimatedthenumberofwordsthathadrasa
thirdletter.Comparably,GabrielcikandFazio(1984)observedthatexposingsubjectsto
subjectivelypresentedwordscontainingthelettertincreasedaparticipants'estimatesofthe
frequencyoftwords,(Schwarz,Bless,&Strack,n.d.).Subjectsprimedwithwords
containingthelettertlaterjudgedtheletterttooccurmorefrequentlyintheEnglishlanguage
thandidunprimedsubjects,(Gabrielcik&Fazio,2013).Thesefindingsmayhavethecapability
toreflectthatsubjectscouldeithergeneratemorewordsbeginningwithanr,orincludingat
ifprimedoriftheyreliedontheeasewithwhichrelevant,idealexamplescouldbebroughtto
mind,(Schwarz,Bless,&Strack,n.d.).
ThemostcitedinvestigationoftheavailabilityheuristicisKahnemanandTversky
(1974),whereparticipantswereseparatedintotwogroupsheardalistof39names.Onelist
designatedtoonegroupcontained19namesoffamousmalepersonalitiesand20namesofless
famousfemalepersonalitieswhiletheotherlist,whichwasdesignatedtothesecondgroup,


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contained19namesoffamousfemalepersonalitiesand20namesoflessfamousmale
personalities.Participantswereaskedwhichsexwasmostfrequentonthelist.Amongthe99
participants,80erroneouslyjudgedtheclass(sex)consistingofmorefamousnamestobethe
mostfrequent,(Tversky&Kahneman,1973,p.[Page175]).Participantsthuscontributedan
overestimateoffrequency.Itisassumedthatparticipantsusedtheavailabilityheuristicin
choosingtheiranswer.Alsoknownastheavailabilityheuristic,thisisamentalcuethatdepends
onimmediateexamplesthatcometoanindividualsmindwhenevaluatingaspecifictopic,
concept,methodordecision.Theavailabilityheuristicfunctionsontheideathatifsomething
canberecalled,itmustbeimportant,oratleastmoreimportantthanalternativesolutionsor
instanceswhicharenotasreadilyrecalled,(Baker,Reed,Heathcote,Maguire,&Kemp,2005,p.
201).
InmyreplicationofKahnemanandTverskys1974studyonbiasesduetothe
retrievabilityofinstances,onesutilizationoftheretrievabilityheuristicinanuncertainrecall
situation,suchasrecallingsexfromalistofnamesconsistingofadifferentclass,isbeing
observed.Thefamiliarityandsalienceofeachpersonalitywasconsideredinthemakingofeach
list.Theparticipantsresponseontheballotindicatedwhetherthesalienceofthepersonalities
hadanyeffect,thiswasthedependentvariable.


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Method

Design
InthisreplicationofTverskyandKahnemans1974studyonbiasesduetothe
retrievabilityofinstances,thereweretwogroupsastherewereintheoriginalexperiment
conductedbyTverskyandKahneman.Independentmeasureswereutilizedtoeliminateany
possibleordereffects.Subjectvariablesmaynothavebeencontrolledaseffectivelyaspossible,
however,having20participantsmayhaveevenedthesamplesout.Additionalcontrolsincluded
ablindmethodandaskingparticipantstorefrainfromspeakingtootherparticipantswhilethe
experimenttookplace.Beforetheexperimenttookplace,informedconsentdocumentswere
obtainedandaftertheexperimentwasconducted,participantsweredebriefed.Theindependent
variablewasthefamiliarityandsalienceofthepersonality,whichwaspickedfromalistof
popularcelebrities,andthedependentvariablewastheparticipantsresponseofwhetheritwas
believedthatmaleorfemalepersonalitiesweremorefrequent.

Participants
The20participantsintheSpanishIIIHonorsclassconsistingofstudentsinthetenthand
eleventhgradewerechosenatrandomfromtheclassroster.Thisallowedforeverymemberof
thetargetpopulationtohaveanequalchanceofselection.Consideringthattherewere20
participants,therewasadiverserangeofparticipantstherewerestudentsbothmaleandfemale
studentsandstudentsaged15to17yearsold.Thereweretenmalestudentsandtenfemale
studentsmakingupthegroupofparticipants.Randomassignmentwasusedtoassign


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participantstoeithergrouponeortwo.Itwasmadesurehowever,thatthegroupswerenot
madeentirelyofonegender.Bothgroupssharedsimilarcharacteristicstoavoidapotential
samplingbiasintheresults.Themeanageofparticipantswas16,whichwasthemedianagefor
thetargetpopulationofstudentsaged1517ingradestenandeleven.

Materials
Informedconsent(appendixA)
Instructions(appendixB)
Listwith19famouswomenand20lessfamousmen(appendixC)
Asecondlistwith19namesoffamousmenand20namesoflessfamouswomen,
(appendixD)
Computer
PencilsorPens
Printedballotswithamalepersonalityoptionandafemalepersonalityoption,(appendix
E)
Debriefingscript,(appendixF)


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Procedure
1. Beforeconductingthestudy,twolistsof39names,onelistwith19famous
womenand20lessfamousmen(appendixC),andthesecondlistwith19names
offamousmenand20namesoflessfamouswomen,(appendixD)weretyped.
2. Then,20identicalballots,(appendixE),werecreatedandlaterprintedforthe
participantsuse.
3. Numberswerehandwrittenonthebackofeachballotwhichwouldindicate
whichgrouptheballotbelongedtoandtheparticipant.
4. Thenecessarydocumentssuchasinformedconsent(appendixA),instructions
(appendixB),andthedebriefingstatement(appendixF)werealsotypedand
printedifnecessary.
5. Informedconsentdocumentsweregivento20potentialparticipants,whichwere
latersigned
6. Participantswitsignedinformedconsentsweredividedevenlyintotwogroupsof
10,whichweretreatedthesame.
7. GroupOne,whichconsistedof10participantswasseparatedfromgrouptwoand
takentoaseparateroom
8. Participantsheardtheinstructions,(PartOne)
9. Listenedtodesignatedlist
10. Heardparttwoofinstructions
11. Filledoutballots
12. Ballotsweretakenupindividually
13. Participantshearddebriefingstatement
14. Grouponewasdismissed,Grouptwowasthenseparatedandtheprocessstarting
atnumber8tonumber13wasrepeated.


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Results
SectionE
Themajorityofgroupone,whichheardalistconsistingof19famousfemale
personalitiesand20malepersonalities,indicatedontheirballotthattheybelievedtherewere
morefemalepersonalitiesonthelist.SevenoutoftenparticipantschoseWomen(themode)
ontheirballot,(70%),whilethreeoutoftenparticipantschoseMenontheirballot(30%).

Participant#

AnswerOnBallot

1001

Women

1002

Women

1003

Men

1004

Women

1005

Women

1006

Men

1007

Men

1008

Women

1009

Women

1010

Women
Votes Women(7),Men(3)


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Themajorityofgrouptwo,whichheardalistconsistingof19famousmalepersonalities
and20femalepersonalities,indicatedontheirballotthattheybelievedthereweremorefemale
personalitiesonthelist.Verymuchlikegroupone,sevenoutoftenparticipantsingrouptwo
choseMen(themode)ontheirballot,(70%),whilethreeoutoftenparticipantschose
Womenontheirballot(30%).

Participant
#

Answeron
Ballot

2001

Men

2002

Women

2003

Men

2004

Men

2005

Men

2006

Women

2007

Men

2008

Men

2009

Women

2010

Men
Votes Men(7),
Women(3)


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SectionG,Discussion
WhenjuxtaposedwithTverskyandKahnemansfindings,theresultsofthisreplication
oftheir1974experimentisverysimilar.Intheirexperiment,therewere99participantsintheir
originaltrial.Afterconductingtheirexperiment,80participantsincorrectlyjudgedtheclass
(sex)consistingofmorefamousnamestobethemostfrequent,(Tversky&Kahneman,1973,p.
[Page175]).Inthisreplication,therewere20participantsofwhich14erroneouslyjudgedthe
sexconsistingofmorefamousnameswasthemostnumerous.
However,theseanswersarenotnecessarilyreflectiveoftheutilizationoftheavailability
heuristicthereisamajorproceduralormethodicalflawinthisexperimentwhichputKahneman
andTverskysfindingsinquestion.Therewasa50/50chanceofchoiceontheballot.There
wasanoptionforWomenandanoptionforMen.Participantsveryeasilycouldhave
guessedtheirresponsewithoutattemptingtorecallanynamesreadfromthelist.Inattemptto
havemorevalidfindings,havingparticipantstorecallasmanynamesfromthelistthattheycan
maybetterreflectthebiasandusageoftheavailabilityheuristicratherthanusingaballotwitha
50/50percentchanceofansweringcorrectly.


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References
Baker,K.,Reed,C.,Heathcote,D.,Maguire,M.,&Kemp,R.(2005).AnIntroductiontoApplied
CognitivePsychology.PsychologyPress.
Betsch,T.,Siebler,F.,Mrz,P.,Hormuth,S.,&Dickenberger,D.(2012).TheModeratingRole
ofCategorySalienceandCategoryFocusinJudgmentsofSetSizeandFrequencyof
Occurrence.RetrievedMarch9,2015,fromAPAPsycNET,AmericanPsychological
Associationwebsite:http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/199910910006
Gabrielcik,A.,&Fazio,R.H.(2013).PrimingandFrequencyEstimationAStrictTestofthe
AvailabilityHeuristic.RetrievedMarch10,2015,from
http://psp.sagepub.com/content/10/1/85.short
Schwarz,N.,Bless,H.,&Strack,F.(n.d.).EaseofRetrievalasInformation:AnotherLookatthe
AvailabilityHeuristic.RetrievedMarch6,2015,from
http://sitemaker.umich.edu/norbert.schwarz/files/91_jpsp_schwarz_et_al_ease.pdf
Tversky,A.,&Kahneman,D.(n.d.).JudgementunderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases.In
JudgementunderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases.(ExcerptedfromAmerican
AssociationfortheAdvancementofScience,185,11241131,1974)
Biasesinjudgmentsrevealsomeheuristicsofthinkingunderuncertainty
Tversky,A.,&Kahneman,D.(1973).Availability:Aheuristicforjudgingfrequencyand
probability.InCognitivePsychology(pp.163178).Retrievedfrom
http://people.umass.edu/biep540w/pdf/Tversky%20availability.pdf


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(ThischapterisanabbreviatedversionofapaperthatappearedinCognitivePsychology,1973.)

AppendixA,InformedConsent

AbbyBryan

DearParticipant,

AsapartofmyIBPsychologyInternalAssessment,Iamcarryingoutastudyondecision
making.Thisstudyisgoingtotestyourstrategiesusedformakingdecisions.Afterthebriefing,
Iwillaskyoutochecktheboxesandsignthestatementbelow.

Ihavebeeninformedaboutthenatureoftheexperiment
IunderstandthatIhavetherighttowithdrawfromtheexperimentatanytimeforany
reason.
Iunderstandthatallinformationordataaboutmewillremainconfidential.My
anonymitywillbeprotectedasmynamewillnotbeidentifiable.
TheexperimentwillbeconductedsothatIwillnotbedemeanedinanyway.
Iwillbedebriefedattheendandhavetheopportunitytofindouttheresults.
Igivemyinformedconsenttoparticipatinginthisexperiment.

ParticipantSignatureandDate_______________________________________________

Parent/GuardianSignatureandDate
_________________________________________________


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Contactemail___________________________________________________________

AppendixB,Instructions

Today,withyourconsent,Iwillperformanexperimentondecisionmakingunderuncertainty.I
willreadyoualistofwordsanditissuggestedthatyoulistenveryclosely.Afterthelisthas
beenread,Iwillhandyouaballotonwhichyouwillanswerasimplequestion.Afterpicking
youranswer,pleaseraiseyourhandandIwillcomepickupyourballot.Iaskthatyouplease
remainquietwhilethelistisbeingreadandtheballotsareout.Thankyouinadvanceforyour
participationandcooperation.


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AppendixC,Listusedforgroupone

Boldednamesarethe19Women

1. AtticusShaffer
2. TimPawlenty
3. KimKardashian
4. NickiMinaj
5. EdSchultz
6. SteveWilliams
7. IggyAzalea
8. MarilynMonroe
9. OprahWinfrey
10. SteveWilliams
11. JeffAshton
12. AngelinaJolie
13. JonathanAdams
14. MichelleObama
15. LeeArenberg
16. JamesCosmo
17. Beyonce
18. TaylorSwift
19. JohnCothran
20. JimCummings
21. PhilipDavis
22. BritneySpears
23. EllenDeGeneres
24. MosesGunn
25. IanHart
26. AndrewHavill
27. JamesHong
28. LadyGaga
29. KatyPerry
30. MileyCyrus
31. SelenaGomez
32. JosephLong
33. CliveMantle


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34. EddieMarsan
35. LukeNewberry
36. WhoopiGoldberg
37. KourtneyKardashian
38. AmberRose
39. KateMiddleton

AppendixD,listusedforgrouptwo
Boldnamesareoffamousmen(19)

1. ChristineAdams
2. BarackObama
3. LysetteAnthony
4. AlisonDoody
5. HaydnGywnne
6. ElvisPresley
7. JohnF.Kennedy
8. RosalindHalstead
9. LisaMcAlister
10. TomCruise
11. JustinBieber
12. BradPitt
13. MirandaRaison
14. JeanetteRankin
15. KurtCobain
16. JimCarrey
17. WillFerrell
18. IsabelleEberhardt
19. JudithBennet
20. FlorenceNightingale
21. RobinWilliams
22. LeonardoDiCaprio
23. GailLaughlin
24. ArnoldSchwarzenegger
25. Eminem
26. ChrisBrown
27. JohnnyDepp
28. BeatriceElizabethMary
29. SarahFerguson
30. AutumnPhillips
31. AmyChua
32. AlbertEinstein
33. ChanningTatum


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34. DawnFrench
35. KanyeWest
36. ScottDisick
37. CamillaRosemary
38. MaryStewart
39. AlanisMorissette

AppendixE,Ballots(8)20wereused.

Men
Women

Men
Women

Men
Women

Men
Women

Men
Women

Men
Women

Men


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Women

Men
Women

AppendixF,DebriefingStatement
KahnemanandTversky(1974)
JudgementunderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases
Biasesduetotheretrievabilityofinstances

Thisstudyisconcernedwithonesdecisionmakingunderuncertainty.Therearesituationsin
whichonemayassessthefrequencyofaclass,ortheprobabilityofaneventbytheeaseof
whichinstancesoroccurrencescanbebroughttomind.Previousstudieshavefoundthatwhen
onemustmakeadecision,likehowmanyfemalenamesareinalist,aclass,namesinthiscase,
thatareeasilyretrievedwillappearmorenumerousthanaclassofequalfrequencywhose
instancesarelessretrievable.

Howwasthistested?
Inthisstudy,youwereaskedtoperformtwotaskslistentoalistofnamesanddecideifthelist
hadmorenamesofmenormorenamesofwomen.Eachlisthadatotalof39namesthefirst
groupslisthaving19namesoffamouswomenand20lessfamousmen,andthesecond
groupslisthaving19namesoffamousmenand20lessfamouswomen.Allparticipants
performedthesametasktheyeachchosewhetherthelisthadeithermoremenorwomenand
puttheiransweronaballot.Theballotwasthesameforeachparticipant.

Hypothesisandaim:
Iexpectedeachparticipanttowronglyanderroneouslyjudgethatthesexwithmorefamous
personalitieswasthemorenumerous.

Theaimofthisstudywastoinvestigateonesheuristics,orstrategies,utilizedwhenmakinga
decisionunderuncertainty.Inthisstudymorespecifically,thejudgementalheuristicknownas
availability.Availabilityisausefulhintforassessingfrequency,(numberoftimessomething
occurs),orprobability,becauseinstancesoflargeclassesareusuallyrecalledbetterandfaster
thaninstancesoflessfrequentclasses.

Ihavebeeninformedaboutthenatureoftheexperiment
IunderstandthatIhavetherighttowithdrawfromtheexperimentatanytimeforany
reason.
Iunderstandthatallinformationordataaboutmewillremainconfidential.My
anonymitywillbeprotectedasmynamewillnotbeidentifiable.


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TheexperimentwillbeconductedsothatIwillnotbedemeanedinanyway.
Iwillbedebriefedattheendandhavetheopportunitytofindouttheresults.
Igivemyinformedconsenttoparticipatinginthisexperiment.