e r p a n e l i s t s which they can use to refine their own views.

Scenario
planning
Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in
theFutures Studies. Government planners, corporate strategists and militaryanalysts use
them in order to aid decision-making. The term scenario wasintroduced into planning and
decision-making by

Herman Kahn
in connectionwith military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s.It can be defined as a
rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world,o n e s u f f i c i e n t l y v i v i d t h a t a
p l a n n e r c a n c l e a r l y s e e a n d c o m p r e h e n d t h e problems, challenges and opportunities
that such an environment wouldpresent.A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a
plausible
descriptiono f w h a t m i g h t h a p p e n . S c e n a r i o s a r e l i k e s t o r i e s b u i l t a r o u n d c a r e f u l l
y constructed plots based on trends and events. They assist in selection
of s t r a t e g i e s , i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e s , m a k i n g p e o p l e a w a r e
o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s a n d o p e n i n g u p t h e i r i m a g i n a t i o n a n d i n i t i a t i n g l e a r n i n g processe
s.One of the key strengths of the scenario process is its influence on the way of thinking of its
participants. A mindset, in which the focus is placed on one