CIVL1011/CIVL2111

Transportation Engineering

Alternative demand
models

Alternative demand
forecasting model structure 1
Trip generation

Trip generation

Modal choice

Trip distribution

Trip distribution

Modal choice

Trip end model

Trip assignment

Trip assignment

Trip interchange
usage model

4.11d

(mode)

Alternative demand
forecasting model structure 2
Trip generation

Trip generation
and
mode choice

Trip distribution
Modal choice

Trip distribution

Trip assignment

Trip assignment

Trip interchange usage model

Trip generation
Trip ends
Trip distribution
Modal choice
Trip assignment

This approach
facilitates the
inclusion of the
characteristics of
the journey and
those of the
alternatives modes

Trips-by-destination
Trip interchange
usage model
Trips-by-mode-by-destination
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Direct generation usage model

Direct generation
usage model
Trip generation
and
mode choice

Trip distribution

trips-by-mode

Trip assignment
Trips-by-mode-by-destination
No indication
to where those
trips might go.

This approach is appropriate to

smaller urban areas without
major transit service.

Combined trip generation and

mode choice models
a. Cross-classification model

Combined trip generation and

mode choice models
b. Regression models

Connecting trips-by-mode to population (POP), income

(INC), and automobiles (AUTO):

T transit A B POP C INC

T auto A B POP C AUTO

Mainly consider characteristics of trip makers.
Can the model

capture trip length?

capture fare of bus?
Use to study fare reduction policy?

Alternative demand
forecasting model structure 3

Trip generation

Trip generation

Trip distribution

Mode and
destination
choices

Modal choice
Trip assignment

Trip assignment

Combined mode and

destination choice model

Multinomial Logit model

eVmd
Pmd
Vns
e

n,s

Example: utility function in Logit model

Vmd = Bo BTT + BAA
where
Vmd
= utility of an individual for selecting for the
combination of mode m and destination d
T
= travel time in minutes
A
= commercial floor area in thousand ft2
BA, BT = positive parameters
10

Example
bus
Residential,
1000 trips

car

14 min
8 min
10 min
20 min

Shopping area
=40000 m2

A joint shopping-trip mode-destination choice logit model is estimated,

giving the following coefficient:
variable
Auto constant
Travel time in minutes
Commercial floor space (in
thousand of m2)

a.

Shopping area
=25000 m2

Auto coefficient
0.6
-0.3
0.12

Bus coefficient
0
-0.3
0.12

determine the distribution of trips by destination and mode.

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Example

solution

a. Let Vmd be the utility of going to shopping center d via mode m

Vmd Bo - BT T BA A
VA1 0.6 0.3 8 0.12 25 1.2
VB1 0.3 14 0.12 25 1.2
VA 2 0.6 0.3 10 0.12 40 2.4
VB 2 0.3 20 0.12 40 1.2

Vmd

eVmd

Pmd

Trips by m to shopping center d

Car

1.20

3.32

0.222

222

bus

-1.20

0.30

0.020

20

Car

2.40

11.02

0.738

738

bus

-1.20

0.30

0.020

20

sum

14.95

1.000

1000

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Example
bus
Residential,
1000 trips

14 min

Shopping area
= 25000 m2

8 min
Car

10 + 4 min
20 + 4 min

Shopping area
= 40000 + ? m2

To attract as many total trips as it did before the congestion,

how much commercial floor space must be added to
shopping center 2?
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Example

Solution
Let x be the increase in floor space.
To attract as many total trips as it did before the congestion, the
proportions and hence the utilities of all modes to center 2 must be the
same as those before the congestion. Hence

VA 2 0.6 0.3 10 4 0.12 40 x 2.4, and

VB 2 0.3 20 4 0.12 40 x 1.2

x=10
Therefore, a commercial floor space of 10000 m2 must be added.

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Alternative demand
forecasting model structure 4

Trip generation

Direct demand

Trip distribution
Modal choice
Trip assignment

Trip assignment

15

Direct demand model

example 1
a4

a6

a2
a3 Cijk
a5 H ijk
a7 Dijk
a1
Tijk a0 Pi Pj Cij
H ij
Dij

C
H
D
ij
ij
ij
Tijk travel volume between zones i and j via mode k

a8

Yij

a9

Pi population of zone i (landuse variable)

Cij least cost between zones i and j
Cijk cost between zones i and j via mode k
H ij shortest travel time between zones i and j
H ijk travel time between zones i and j via mode k

interzonal
impedence
variables

Dij departure frequency of most frequency mode between zones i and j

Dijk departure frequency between zones i and j via mode k
Yij weighted average incomes of i and j (socioeconomic variable)
al parameter l

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Example

Determine the elasticity of demand with respect to population i, e

of the direct demand model

a2
a3 Cijk
a1
Tijk a0 Pi Pj Cij

C
ij

Solution

a4

a5 H ijk
H ij H
ij

a6

a7 Dijk
Dij D
ij

a8

Tijk Pi
Pi Tijk

a9

ij

T P
e ijk i
Pi Tijk
a4
a6
a8

a2
a3 Cijk
a5 H ijk
a7 Dijk
a9
a1 1
a0 a1 Pi Pj Cij
H ij
Dij
Yij Pi

Cij
H ij
Dij

a4
a6
a8

a2
a3 C
a5 H
a7 D
a9
a
a0 Pi 1 Pj Cij ijk H ij ijk Dij ijk Yij
Cij
H ij
Dij
a1
The exponent!

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Example

Using the direct demand model shown before to determine the

percentage change in the patronage of mode k serving between zone i
and j if the travel time between zone i and j by mode k is reduced by
20%. Assume a6=-2
Solution
Let before and after be the subscripts before and after reduction
respectively.
a4
a6
a8
a2
a3 Cijk
a5 1
a7 Dijk
a9
a1
a0 Pi Pj Cij
H ij
Dij
Yij
C
H
D
Let also
ij
ij
ij
H ijk ,after (1 0.2) H ijk ,before 0.8H ijk ,before
Tijk ,after
Tijk ,before

after H ijk ,after

before H ijk ,before

Tijk ,after Tijk ,before

Tijk ,before

0.82

1.5625
1

Tijk ,after

100%
1100% = 56.25% increase
Tijk ,before

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Direct demand model

example 2
Choice

A combined tripgeneration, timeof-day, destination

and mode choice
nested logit model

How many levels?

How many nests?

Trip

No trip

Off-peak

Destination 1

Mode 1

Mode K

peak

Destination N

Mode 1

How many choices?

Destination 1

Mode K Mode 1

Mode K

Destination N

Mode 1

Mode K
19

Direct demand model example 3

Elastic demand model

TAC 248 4v AC
TAC: travel time
VAC: travel demand

20

Demand supply equilibrium

At demand-supply equilibrium, the travel time spent by

each traveler is equal to the travel time provided by the
network.

Travel time
between origin
and destination

Demand
function

Supply
function

Direct demand

Equilibrium
travel time
Equilibrium demand

Travel
demand

Trip assignment
21

Example

Given the network and performance functions below, find the

equilibrium travel demand and travel times if the demand function is
TAC 248 4v AC .
Link 1:
Link2:
T1= 4 + 2v1 T2 = 4 +4 v2
Solution
v AC v1 v2
A
B
C

TAC T1 T2 4 2v1 4 4v2

8 6v AC
8 6v AC 248 4v AC (Demand = supply)
10v AC 240 v AC 24 v1 v2

TAC

TAC 248 4v AC
6

152

T1 4 2v1 4 2(24) 52
T2 4 4v2 4 4(24) 100
TAC 8 6 24 152

TAC 8 6v AC
24

vAC
22

Alternative demand
forecasting model structure 5

Trip generation

Trip generation

Trip distribution

Trip distribution

Modal choice

Modal choice

Trip assignment

Trip assignment

23