Four-Step TRANSPORTATION

FORECASTING PROCESS
• Widely used for forecasting travel demands.
• It predicts the number of trips originating in or destined
for a particular traffic analysis zone.
• Originally developed in the 1950’s to 1960’s when
planning major highway facilities
Four decisions are the basis of the traditional travel demand model
• The choice and reason to travel
• The destination to travel to
• The mode by which to travel
• The route to which to travel
TRIP GENERATION
• The trip generation aims at predicting the total number
of trips generated and attracted to each zone of the study
area. In other words this stage answers the questions to
how many trips” originate at each zone, from the data on
household and socioeconomic attributes.
 Factors affecting trip generation

factors affecting personal trip production

• income
• vehicle ownership
• house hold structure
• family size
Factors affecting personal trip attraction
• roofed space available for industrial, commercial and other services.
A. Growth factor modeling
• normally used in the prediction of external trips where no other methods are available.
• tries to predict the number of trips produced or attracted by a house hold or zone as a
linear function of explanatory variables.
Ti = fi(ti)
Where:
Ti -number of future trips in the zone
ti -number of current trips in that zone
fi - growth factor.
subscript ” d” - denotes the design year
subscript ”c” - denotes the current year
P - population of the zone
I - average house hold income
V - average vehicle ownership
Examples:
1. Given that a zone has 275 household with car and 275 household without
car and the average trip generation rates for each groups is respectively 5.0 and
2.5 trips per day. Assuming that in the future, all household will have a car, find
the growth factor and future trips from that zone, assuming that the population
and income remains constant
B. Regression Methods

• used for internal trips

The general form of a trip generation model is

• Ti = f(x1,x2,x3,....xi,...xk)
xi’s - prediction factor or explanatory variable
The linear equation will have the form
y = bx + a
Where:
y - trip rate
x - household size
a and b - coefficients
Example:
1. Let the trip rate of a zone is explained by the household size done from the
field survey. It was found that the household size are 1, 2, 3 and 4. The trip
rates of the corresponding household is as shown in the table below. Fit a
linear equation relating trip rate and household size.
• 2. The trip rate (y) and the corresponding household sizes (x) from a sample
are shown in table below. Compute the trip rate if the average household size
is 3.25
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
 Trip distribution

• The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation.

These generated trips from each zone is then distributed to all
other zones based on the choice of destination. This is called trip
distribution which forms the second stage of travel demand
modeling.
Gravity Model

• Is a model used to estimate the amount of interaction

between two cities
• It is based on Newton’s universal law of gravitation
which measured the attraction of two objects
 Factors in Trip Distribution
• Production
• Attraction
• Model Parameter- is a configuration variable that is internal to the model and whose
value can be estimated from data. They are required by the model when making
predictions
• Generalized Cost- influences the travel cost between two zones. This cost elements
may be considered in terms of distance, time or money units
• Friction Force – used to replicate observed trip length frequency distributions. It
attempts to show the effect of travel time or impedance on trip making
• Given the transportation data below, calculate the number of trips from the
central business zone (Zone 1) to five other surrounding zones (Zone 2 to
Zone 6). Within the impedance function, the generalized cost function is
expressed in terms of the time taken to travel between Zone 1 and each of
the other five zones and the model parameter is set at 1.90.
ZONE PRODUCTION ATTRACTION GENERALIZED FRICTION AF T
COST (Travel time FORCE (F)
in minutes)
1 10,000 15,000
2 7,500 45,000 5
3 15,000 25,000 10
4 18,500 12,500 15
5 8,000 15,000 20
6 5,000 20,000 25
MODAL SPLIT
Public Transport
• Public transport modes make use of road space more efficiently than private
transport.
• they have more social benefits like if more people begin to use public
transport , there will be less congestion on the roads and the accidents will
be less.
• in public transport, we can travel with low cost.
• In addition, the fuel is used more efficiently. Main characteristics of public
transport is that they will have some particular schedule, frequency etc.
Private Transport

• private transport is highly flexible.

• It provides more comfortable and convenient travel.
• It has better accessibility also
A. Binary logit model
• is the simplest form of mode choice, where the travel choice between two
modes is a made.
1. Travel Cost
Where:
in-vehicle travel time between i and j
walking time to and from stops
waiting time to and from stops
fare charged to travel between i and j
parking cost
parameter representing comfort and convenience
• is positive, then mode 1 is chosen.
• is negative, then mode 2 is chosen.
• then both modes have equal probability.
2. Probability of trips

3. Proportion of taking the mode

4. Fare of taking the mode
 Examples
1. Let the number of trips from zone i to zone j is 5000, and two modes are
available which has the following characteristics

Compute the trips made by mode bus, and the fare that is collected from the
mode bus. If the fare of the bus becomes 6, then find the fare collected.
B. Multinomial logit model

2. Let the number of trips from i to j is 5000, and three modes are available which has
the following characteristics:

Compute the trips made by the three modes and the fare required to travel by each
mode.
TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
• Final step in traditional planning model
• Determine which routes will be used and how much traffic can be expected
on each route
• Requires the following data:
- Estimated number of motor vehicle trips between zone
- Available route between zones and travel times on each route
- Decision criteria by which users will select route
• Route choice presents a classic equilibrium problem
a) Route choice decisions are a function of travel times
b) Travel times are determined by traffic flow
c) Traffic flow is a product of route choice decisions

• Mathematical relationship between route travel time and route

traffic flow is needed
- Highway Performance Function
 Capacity Restraint Method
• Bureau of Public Roads Function (BPR)
T=t0 [ 1 + 0.15 (V/C)^4]
Where:
T- travel time
T0 - free- flow travel time
V –volume
C-capacity
 Route Choice Behavior
• Route choice behavior is often modeled based upon Wardrop’s principles
1st Principle: Users choose the route that minimizes their own travel time
- User equilibrium
2nd Principle: Users distribute themselves on the network in such a way that the
average travel time for all users is minimized
-system optimization
A. USER EQUILIBRIUM

• When determining traveler route choice, two important assumptions are

usually made:
a) Travelers will select a route on the basis of travel times
b) Travelers know the travel times that would be encountered on all available
routes
Examples

Highway performance functions have been developed based on data collected

from travel time studies on each of the two available routes.
• Route 1 has a free-flow travel time of 6 minutes and the average travel time
on this route increases by 2 minutes for every 500 vehicle increase in hourly
volume.
• Route 2 has a free-flow travel time of 4 minutes and its average travel time
increases by the square of its volume (in thousands of vehicles per hour)
• Assuming user equilibrium conditions, determine the following assuming an
hourly rate of 4500 veh/hr
a) Travel times on each routes
b) Traffic volumes on each route
c) Total system travel time
B. SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION

• Theoretically, a single route choice strategy is possible that results

in the lowest possible number of total vehicle hours of travel for
some origin-destination traffic flow
B. SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION