Chapter 4

Transportation Planning Overview

1
Land use – transportation Interaction

2
3
4
5
6
7
 Objective

• Provide information necessary for making

decisions on when and where improvements
should be made in the transportation system,
thus promoting travel and land development
patterns that are in keeping with community
goals and objectives.

8
 Planning procedure

1. Forecasts for the target year of the regional

population and economic growth for the subject
metropolitan area
2. Allocation of land uses and socioeconomic
projections to individual analysis zones according to
land availability, local zoning, and related public
policies
3. Specification of alternative transportation plans
partly based on the results of steps 1 and 2
4. Calculation of the capital and maintenance costs of
each alternative plan
9
 Planning procedure

5. Application of calibrated demand-forecasting

models to predict the target year equilibrium flows
expected to use each alternative, given the land-use
and socioeconomic projections of steps 2 and the
characteristics of the transportation alternative (step
3)
6. Conversion of equilibrium flows to direct user
benefits, such as savings in travel time and travel
cost attributable to the proposed plan
7. Comparative evaluation and selection of the “best”
of the alternatives analyzed based on estimated costs
(step 3) and benefits (step 6)
10
11
Zone

12
 Overview of Information Needs

1. The study area

2. Urban activities
3. Transportation system
4. Travel

13
 The Study Area

• Defining the Boundaries: includes developed +

undeveloped land that will be encompassed in the
next 20, 30 years.
• The defined area is demarcated by the cordon line.
Factors of consideration include:
– a) future growth
– b) political jurisdictions
– c) census area boundaries
– d) natural boundaries
• The cordon should intersect a minimum number of
roads to save on subsequent interview requirements
14
• Subdividing the Area of Forecasting: the area is
divided into analysis units or zones to enable the
planner to link information about activities, travel, and
transportation to physical urban area
• The size of a zone may vary. In central business
district (CBD), zones may be small – a single block. In
undeveloped area, it may be large – 10 or more square
miles.
• A zone attempt to bound homogenous urban
activities: all residential, commercial, industrial, etc. It
may also be divided by natural boundaries and census
designations.
15
 Urban Activities

• Information about activities is gathered by

zones
• Sources of information include activities that
may influence travel
• The results provide levels of activities in zones
to help in predicting future levels that provide
a basis for forecasting

16
 Transportation System

• Available modes (auto, bus, etc.)

• An abstraction – so not every local road is included
• A network is developed to describe auto and truck; a separate
description for transit.
• Network geometry includes:
• a) numbering the intersections (called nodes)
• b) numbering the road segments (called links)
• Zone centroids (center of activity) are identified; connected to
nodes by imaginary links (called centroid connectors). They are
used as the points at which trips are “loaded”. They are
sometimes called origin and destination.

17
18
 Travel Forecasting: techniques

1. Sketch Planning Tool:

– Preliminary screening of possible configurations or
concepts. It is used to compare a large number of
proposed policies in sufficient analytical detail to
support broad policy decisions.
– It uses minimum data yielding aggregate estimates
of capital and operating costs, patronage, corridor
traffic flows, service levels, energy consumption
and air pollution
– The final product may be a strategic plan
19
2. Traditional Tools:
– They provide an analysis in much greater detail
than sketch planning. Examples include location of
principal highway facilities and delineated transit
routes
– The outputs are detailed estimates of transit fleet
size, refined cost and patronage forecasts, and
level-of-service measures for specific geographical
areas.
– The cost of examining an alternative is about 10 to
20 times its cost at the sketch planning level. 20
3. Micro-analysis tools
– They are the most detailed of all planning tools.
– Examples: detailed evaluation of the extension,
rescheduling, or pricing of existing bus service; to
analyze passenger and vehicle flows through a
transportation terminal or activity center.
– It is most effective in near-term planning, when a
great many outside variables can be accurately
observed or estimated.

21
22
 Travel Surveys

• Origin-destination (OD) survey

• Roadside interview
• Cordon/screenline survey
• Travel diary survey

23
 OD surveys

• Expensive and difficult, however, offers the possibility

of obtaining more useful data
• Could gather a lot of information, most typical ones
include O-D, mode choice and assignment (route
choice) in short-term studies encompassing travel
distance, time, and costs

24
 OD Surveys

• General considerations
– The procedure to collect data will affect results significantly.
– Survey date: Best times of the year are spring and autumn.
During a typical work day
– Days and Times: No Mondays and Fridays. No weekends.
Best is to ensure a good recollection of events in the previous
day. So the survey should be conducted during Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. Household-based: 6 pm -9 pm.
Workplace based: working hours.
– Survey Period: Ideally all the selected sample should be
interrogated on one day in order to obtain a snapshot of
what happened on the previous day. However, this requires
a large number of interviewers. Practically, the period
normally last for several days.
25
 OD surveys
• Contain three distinct sections:
– Personal characteristics and identification: age, sex,
possession of a driving license, educational level, and
activity. A complete set of activities should be first defined
– Trip data: detecting and characterizing all trips made by all
the household members. A trip is normally defined as any
movement greater than 300 meters from an origin to a
destination with a given purpose. Trips are characterized by:
origin and destination (expressed by nearest cross-junction),
trip purpose, trip start and end times, mode used, walking
distance (including transfers), public-transport line and
transfer stations or bus stop
– Household characteristics: socioeconomic info about the
household, such as characteristics of the house, identification
of household vehicles, house ownership, and income. 26
 OD Surveys

Sample size: the following table is the recommended figures for

traditional surveys, typically huge and uneconomical.

Population of area Sample Size (dwelling units)

Recommended Minimum
< 50,000 1 in 5 1 in 10
50,000-150,000 1 in 8 1 in 20
150,000-300,000 1 in 10 1 in 35
300,000-500,000 1 in 15 1 in 50
500,000-1,000,000 1 in 20 1 in 70
> 1,000,000 1 in 25 1 in 100
27
 OD surveys

• Sample size
– Huge sample and not economical. Approaches estimate the
sample size based on accuracy requirements and coefficient
of variations.
– The sample size may be computed using the following
formula: 2 2
CV Zα
n= 2
E
– n: sample size, E is the level of accuracy (expressed as a
proportion), α is the value of the standard normal variate for
the confidence level ( Zα ) required.
– COV (coefficient of variation) is typically 1
28
 Example
Assume that we want to measure the number of trips per household in a certain area,
and that we have data about the coefficient of variation of this variable for various
locations in the US as follows:

Area CV
US average 0.87
Pennsylvania 0.86
New Hampshire 1.07
Baltimore 1.05

As all values are near to one, we will choose this figure for convenience. The decision
about accuracy and confidence level is the most difficult. The above equation shows that
if we postulate levels that are too strict, sample size increases exponentially. On the
other hand, it is convenient to fix strict levels in this case because the number of trips
per household is a very crucial variable. In this example, we will ask for 0.05 level of
accuracy at a 95% level.
For α = 95% , the value of α is 1.645, therefore, n = 10
Z a f a f
. 1645
.
2
/ 0.05 = 1084
2

Thus, it would suffice to take a sample of approximately 1100 observations to ensure

trip rates with a 5% tolerance 95% of the time. 29
 Roadside Interviews

• These provide useful information about trips not registered in

household survey (i.e. external-external trips in a cordon
survey)
• Often a better method for estimating trip matrices than home
interviews as larger samples are possible.
• Results could be used to validate and extend house-hold based
information
• Involve asking a sample of drivers and passengers of vehicles
crossing a roadside station
• Information collected include:
– origin, destination, trip purpose
• due to time limitation, these are questions asked only if time
allows: sex, age, income
30
 Sample size

n>
a f
p 1− p
FI a f
e
2

+
p 1− p where n = no. of passengers to
HK
z N
survey; p is the proportion of trips with a given
destination, e is an acceptable error (expressed as
a proportion), z is the standard Normal variate
value for the required confidence level, N the
observed passenger flow at a roadside station.

31
 Sample size
F o r g iv e n N , e , z , th e h ig h e s t v a lu e o f n o c c u rs
w h e n p = 0 .5 . T a k in g th is v a lu e a n d c o n s id e r in g
e = 0 .1 (i.e . a m a x im u m e r r o r o f 1 0 % ) a n d z = 1 .9 6
(c o rr e s p o n d in g to a c o n fid e n c e le v e l o f 9 5 % ), th e
v a lu e s s h o w n in th e fo llo w in g ta b le a re o b ta in e d :

V a r ia tio n o f s a m p le s iz e w ith h o u r ly flo w

N n 1 0 0 n / N (% )
(p a s s e n g e rs / h r) (p a ss e n g e rs / h r)
100 49 4 9 .0
200 65 3 2 .5
300 73 2 4 .3
500 81 1 6 .2
700 85 1 2 .1
900 87 9 .7
1100 89 8 .1

32
 Cordon Surveys

• These provide external-external and external-internal

trips. Their objective is to determine the number of
trips that enter, leave, and/or cross the cordoned area,
thus helping to complete the information coming from
household O-D survey.
• The main one is taken at the external cordon, although
surveys may be conducted at internal cordons.
• To reduce delay, they involve stopping a sample of the
vehicles passing a control station, to which a short
questionnaire is given. Sometimes, a sample of license
plates is registered and the questionnaires are sent to
the corresponding addresses.
33
 Cordon Surveys

• An important problem is that return-mail

surveys are known to produce biased results.
Less than 50% questionnaires are usually
returned and it has been shown that the type of
person who returns them is different from
those who do not.
• Therefore, roadside surveys often ask a rather
limited number of questions (e.g., occupation,
purpose, origin, destination and modes
available) to encourage better response rates. 34
 Screenline Surveys

• Screen lines divide the area into large natural

zones (e.g. at both sides of a river or
motorway), with few crossing points between
them. The procedure is analogous to that of
cordon surveys and the data also serve to fill
gaps in and validate the information coming
from the household and cordon surveys.

35
36
37
38
39
 Travel Diary Surveys

• These are surveys conducted with a great level

of detail.
• They are applied separately to each member of
the household traveling at the time of the
study.
• They are carried out and completed by the
subjects during the day

40
 Travel Diary Surveys

• Criteria:
– Ease of transport: a small format to be stored or
carried
– Ease of understanding to the user:
– Ease of completion
• Procedures:
– A first visit to each household in the sample.
Interviewees are trained to use the instrument and
asked to fill it with complete details of their travel
data for the following day
– A second visit the day following the last surveyed
day (24 hours later in the case of one-day diaries. 41
 Approaches for constructing surveys

• Stated-preference surveys
– provide an approximation to a sort of quasi-experiment
based on hypothetical situations set up by the researcher
– The degree of artificiality of the situations may vary,
according to:
• the decision context may be a hypothetical or a real one; in other
words, the respondent may be asked to consider an actual journey or
one that she might consider undertaking in the future
• the alternatives offered are often hypothetical although one of them
may well be an existing one.
• The response elicited from the individual may take the form of
choices or just preferences expressed in a number of ways
• Revealed-preference surveys
– Capture interviewees’ actual choices or responses. 42
 Approaches for constructing surveys

• Longitudinal data collection

– Most common approach is the panel survey, in which
similar measurements are made on the same sample at
different points in time.
– Representative sample: a panel design should attempt to
maintain a representative sample of the entire population
over time, coping with the problems of birth, immigration,
and the addition of whole new families into the population.

43
Sequential Demand-Forecasting Models

Civil & Environmental Engineering

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

1
 4-step procedure

1. Trip generation forecasts the number of trips that will be

made: the decision to travel
2. Trip distribution determines where the trips will go: the
choice of destination
3. Mode usage (modal choice) predicts how the trips will be
divided among the available modes of travel: the choice of
travel mode
4. Trip assignment predicts the routes that the trips will take,
resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and
ridership forecast for the transit system: the choice of route of
path
• Outputs of each step becomes inputs to the following step.
This simplifies the actual decision process tremendously 2
3
 Trip Generation

• Journey: This is a one-way

movement from a point of origin
to a point of destination.
• Home-based (HB) trip: Home is
either the origin or the destination
of the journey
• Non-home-based (NHB) trip:
neither end of the trip is the home
of the traveler

4
• Trip production: either the home end of a HB trip or
the origin of a NHB trip (not based on the direction of
a trip)
• Trip Attraction: the non-home end of a HB trip or the
destination of a NHP trip (not based on the direction
of a trip)
• Trip Generations: the total number of trips generated
by households in a zone

5
• Classification of Trips
– By Trip purpose: to work, school or college, shopping, social and
recreational, and others
– By time of day: peak and off-peak period trips

6
 Typical Trip Generation Models
• Develop trip generation expressions from survey data
to convert estimates of horizon year development
patterns into zonal productions and attractions for
each trip purpose
• Criteria:
– provide good explanatory power of observed base year
travel behavior
– parameters of these trip generation expressions should be
stable over time
– the independent or predictor variable should be easily
predictable with some precision for the horizon year
• Two approaches:
– regression analysis
7
– cross-classification tables
 Regression Models

• Residential land use is an important trip generator

• Non-residential land use is a good attractor of trips
• A typical equation:
Y = A + B1 X 1 + B2 X 2 + B3 X 3

– Y = trips/household
– X1 = car ownership
– X2 = family income
– X3 = family size
– A, Bi = parameters determined through a calibration
process from survey data 8
 Regression models

• Model parameters and variables vary from one study

area to another and are established by using base-year
information
• Once the equations are calibrated, they are used to
estimate future travel for a target year.
• Assumptions:
– all the independent variables are independent
– all the independent variables are normally distributed
– the independent variables are continuous

9
 Example

Y = 0.0649 X 1 − 0.0034 X 2 + 0.0066 X 3 + 0.9486 X 4 + 12

Y = trips/household
X1 = family size
X2 = residential density
X3 = total family income
X4 = cars/household
A, Bi = parameters determined through a calibration process from survey
data
• To derive Y for a future year, appropriate estimates of X1, X2, X3, X4 are
substituted.
• Quality of fit of a regression line determined by multiple linear regression
analysis is indicated by the multiple regression coefficient (goodness of fit)
represented by R, between -1 and 1. The closer R is to 1 or -1, the better is the
linear relationship between the variables.
10
 Example (cont’d)
Independent variable All home-based trips
X1 family size 0.41
X2 residential density -0.76
X3 total family income 0.73
X4 cars per household 0.86
X5 travel time to CBD 0.32
X6 proportion of school- 0.27
going children

• In preliminary investigation, it is useful to compute R

between trip making and separate independent variables.
• In the above example, Y is highly correlated with X1 through
X4 and weakly with X5 and X6.
• Multiple regression is appealing because it is easy to
determine the degree of relationship between the dependent
and independent variables
11
• One can also derive:
– the standard error of estimate (MSE): a measure of
the deviation between observed trips from
predicted values
– partial correlation coefficient of each of the
independent variables
– t-test to determine whether an estimated regression
coefficient is significant

12
 Example

• An analyst came up with the following regression

equations and a simple correlation matrix for 20 years,
as given below:

• Y , X 1 , X 2 , X 3 , X 4 = trips produced, total population,

blue-collar population, white-collar population,
school-going children

• Which equation should the analyst use?

13
 Example (cont’d)

(A) Y = 50.5 + 0.80 X 1 : MSE = 210, R2=0.95, t=34

(B) Y = 308 + 0.79 X 2 : MSE = 844, R2=0.88, t=29
(C) Y = 52.7 + 0.85 X 2 + 1.75 X 3 : MSE = 205, R2=0.98, t=60, 22
(D) Y = −105 + 1.38 X 2 − 0.4 X 3 + 0.1 X 4 : MSE = 155, R2=0.97, t=3, 2, 0.5

1. Check the t-statistics for

Y X1 X2 X3 X4 each independent variable
Y 1.00 0.95 0.85 0.42 0.23 2. Check the correlation
coefficients – two strongly
X1 1.00 0.92 0.53 0.22 correlated x should not
X2 1.00 0.35 0.09 enter
3. Choose the one with high R
X3 1.00 0.12 Square, low MSE, and
X4 1.00 contains the fewest number
of variables
14
 Cross-Classification or
Category Analysis
• Widely used
• Household types are classified according to a
set of categories that are highly correlated with
trip-making
• Usually, use four explanatory variables, with
each broken into about three discrete levels, are
usually sufficient
• Trip rates associated with each type of
household are estimated by statistical methods
and these rates are assumed to remain stable
over time. 15
 Trip rates

4.2

16
 Trip rates

Table 4.1a

17
 Example

• An urban zone contains 200 acres of residential land, 50 acres

devoted to commercial users, and 10 acres of park land. The
following table represents the zone’s expected household
composition at some future (target) year.
Vehicle per Persons per household
household
1 2,3 4 5
0 100 200 150 20
1 300 500 210 50
2+ 150 100 60 0

• Using the calibrated cross-classification as shown in the

previous table, estimate the total non-work home-based trips
that the zone will produce during a typical target-year day. The
rates are given as trips per household per day. 18
 Solution

• The total productions are estimated by summing the contribution of each

household type:
PI = ∑ N h Rh
h
– where N h , Rh are the number of households of type h and their corresponding
production rate. For example, the 300 single person one-car households
contribute (300)(1.45)=435 non-work home-based trips per day. Summing over
all household types gives:
– PI = 5760 trips per day

• Discussion:
– Only the residential land use sector of the zone entered into the solution because
trip productions are associated with the residential characteristics of the zone.
The commercial and recreational characteristics of the zone would be relevant to
the estimation of the attractiveness of the zone for these purposes. In that case,
properly calibrated attractiveness models would be required.
19
 Example

• A number of suburban zones have a total of

1000 dwelling units (DU). The average income
per DU is $12,000. Using the curves a, b, and c
provided, estimate the number of trips
produced by the zones

20
1. Enter curve a with zonal
income per dwelling unit to
determine car ownership level
by household:

2% 0 auto households = 20 DU
32% 1 auto households = 320 DU
52% 2 auto households = 520 DU
14% 3 auto households = 140 DU

21
2. Enter curve b with income, to
determine the total
production (person-trips)
from each household:
Trips from 0 auto household =
5.5x20 = 110 trips
Trips from 1 auto household =
12.0x320 = 3840 trips
Trips from 2 auto household =
15.50x520 = 8060 trips
Trips from 3 auto household =
17.2x140 = 2408 trips
Total trips = 14418
Average trips/DU = 14.4
22
3. Enter curve c with income to
determine the trips produced
by purpose:
Home-to-work trips = 19%x14418
= 2739 trips
Home-to-shop trips = 11%x14418
= 1586 trips
Home-to-school trips = 14%x14418
= 2018 trips
Home-to-other trips = 34%x14418
= 4903 trips
Non-home-based trips= 22%x14418
= 3172 trips
23
 Trip Distribution

• Estimate the target-year trip volume that interchange

between all pairs of zones I and J, where I is the trip-
producing zone, J the trip-attracting zone
• Rationale: all trip-attracting zones J are competing
with other J’s to attract trips produced by each zone I.
• More trips attracted to zones with higher levels of
“attractiveness”
• Other factors: distance, impedance, or disutility

1
• Trip-distribution estimates the
interzonal person-trip volume
based on the productions of each
zone I, the attractiveness of zone J,
and the interzonal impedance
• Production and attraction inputs
from a trip-generation model
• Estimates of the target-year
interzonal impedance obtained
from the specification of the
alternative transportation plan
• Common mathematical
formulations include: growth
factor models, the gravity model,
and a number of opportunities
models.
2
 The Gravity Model
· Based on Newton’s law of gravitation
M1 M 2
F=k
r2
· The application to trip distribution takes this form:

PI AJ
QIJ = k
WIJc
· the interzonal volume is the dependent variables
· k and c are parmeters to be estimated through
calibration of base-year data
· k can be elimiated by applying the trip-production
balance constraint:

PI = ∑ QIx
3
x
• Combining:

Ax
PI = kPI ∑ c
x WIx

• Solving for k:

L
k = M∑
A O
P x
−1

N QWx
c
Ix

• Finally,
LM A / W OP c
Q =P
IJ
MM ∑ c A / W hPP
I
J IJ
c

N x Q x Ix

• The bracketed term in right hand side is the

proportion of zone I trips that will be attracted by
zone J in competition with all trip-attracting zones
x.
4
• One can also write:

AJ = ∑ QxJ
x
• The gravity model can also be stated as,
F AF I
= PG JJ IJ
QIJ
GH ∑ A F JK
I

x
x Ix

where
1
FIJ = c , is know as the travel-time (or friction)
WIJ
factor.
5
• Finally, a set of socioeconomic adjustment factors
are introduced to incorporate effects that are not
captured by the limited number of independent
variables.

AJ FIJ KIJ
QIJ = PI = PI pIJ
∑ AJ FIJ KIJ
J

• pIJ is the probability that a trip generated by I will

be attracted to J.
• A table that contains the interzonal impedances WIJ
is known as a skim table
6
 Example

• Perform a localized application of the basic gravity

model for trips between a proposed site (attractor) and
three surrounding zones. The sites receives 1,524
incoming trips during the morning rush hour. Assume
that all incoming trips are from the surrounding zones.
Average travel times from each zone to the site as well
as the population of each zone are given. Estimate the
number of trips from each zone to the site.

7
 Example (cont’d)

(1524 )( 3000 )
Gs1 = k = 381000k
12
(1524 )( 4500 )
Gs 2 = k = 428625k
16
(1524 )( 7500 )
Gs 3 = k = 762000k
15
Gs1 + Gs 2 + Gs 3 = 1524
k = 0.0009697,
Gs1 = 369, Gs 2 = 416, Gs 3 = 739

8
 Example
The target-year production and relative attractiveness
of the four-zone city have b een estimated to be as
follows:

Zone Productions Attractiveness

1 1500 0
2 0 3
3 2600 2
4 0 5

The calibration of the gravity model for this city

estimated c = 2.0 and all socioeconomic adjustment
factors to be 1. Apply the gravity model to estimate all
target interchanges QIJ and to estimate the total target -
year attractions of each zone given that the target -
year interzonal impendances WIJ will be as shown in
the following skim table. 9
 Skim table

I\J 1 2 3 4
1 5 10 15 20
2 10 5 10 15
3 15 10 5 10
4 20 15 10 5

10
 Solution

For I = 1, PI = 1500
J AJ F1 J K1 J AJ F1 J K1 J p1 J Q1 J
1 0 0.0400 1.0 0.0 0 0
2 3 0.0100 1.0 0.0300 0.584 875
3 2 0.0044 1.0 0.0089 0.173 260
4 5 0.00025 1.0 0.0125 0.243 365
Total 0.0514 1.00 1500

For I = 3, PI = 2600
J AJ F3 J K3 J AJ F3 J K3 J p3 J Q3 J
1 0 0.0044 1.0 0.0 0 0
2 3 0.0100 1.0 0.03 0.188 488
3 2 0.0400 1.0 0.08 0.500 1300
4 5 0.0100 1.0 0.05 0.312 812
Total 0.16 1.00 2600
11
To find the total target-year trip attractions of the
nonresidential zones, apply the trip-attraction balance
to get:
A2* = 875 + 488 = 1363
A3* = 260 + 1300 = 1560
A3* = 365 + 812 = 1177

I\J 1 2 3 4 Sum
1 0 875 260 365 1500
2 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 488 1300 812 2600
4 0 0 0 0 0
Sum 0 1363 1560 1177 4100
12
 I\J 1 2 3 4 Sum
1 0 875 260 365 1500
2 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 488 1300 812 2600
4 0 0 0 0 0

• Discussions: Sum 0 1363 1560 1177 4100

– Zone 1 is purely residential

– Zones 2 and 4 are purely nonresidential
– Zone 3 is mixed
– The diagonal elements of the interzonal impedance
give the intrazonal impedance.
– The sum of each row of the trip table corresponds to
the productions of zone I
– The sum of each column of the trip table
corresponds to the attractions of zone J
13
 Example

You are a planning consultant to a trading firm that is

considering the construction of a major shopping
center in the city of Trinity. At present, the city
consists of three residential zones and the central
business district (CBD), where all shopping activity is
concentrated. Your clients can acquire land for the
proposed center at the location shown and are
interested in your prediction of the patronage that the
center will attract if built to compete with the CBD.
The following data have been made available to you:

14
1. Daily shopping trip production (trips per person):
X3 = I
X1 \ X 2 0 1 2
≤2 0.2 0.3 0.4
3 0.1 0.2 0.3
≥4 0.1 0.2 0.3

X 3 = II
X1 \ X 2 0 1 2
≤2 0.3 0.4 0.5
3 0.2 0.2 0.4
≥4 0.2 0.2 0.5

X 1 = household size, in persons/household

X 2 = auto ownership, cars/household
X 3 = household income level (I or II) 15
2. Relative shopping attractiveness: The relative
shopping attractiveness of commercial zones has
been found to be given by the following multiple
regression equation:

A = 5Xa + 3Xb
X a = area of shopping floor space provided, in acres
X b = available parking area, in acres

16
3. Land use and socioeconomic projections:
# of Households
Zone X1 X2 X3 Base Target
Yr. Yr.
2 0 I 300 500
1 2 1 I 300 400
3 1 I 200 300
2 2 II 0 50
2 1 I 400 500
2 2 1 II 300 200
3 2 I 200 300
3 0 I 100 400
1 1 II 200 200
3 2 2 II 300 400
3 2 II 400 300
4 2 II 200 400

Base Year Target Year

Zone Xa Xb Xa Xb
4 (CBD) 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.5
5 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0
17
4. Gravity model parameters:
1 5 Proposed
5 Center

10

20 2
20
10

4 5 3
CBD

(a) ln F = − ln W where W is the interzonal impedance,

in minutes shown in the following figure.

(b) KIJ
I\J 4(CBD) 5 (center)
1 1.0 0.9
2 0.9 1.2
3 1.0 1.0
18
 Solution

The contribution of each household type to the total

zonal production = (# household)(household
size)(trips per person)

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3

500x2x0.2 = 200 500x2x0.3 = 300 200x1x0.4 = 80
400x2x0.3 = 240 200x2x0.4 = 160 400x2x0.5 = 400
300x3x0.2 = 180 300x3x0.3 = 270 300x3x0.4 = 360
50x2x0.5 = 50 400x3x0.1 = 120 400x4x0.5 = 800
P1=670 P2=850 P3=1640

19
The target year attractiveness:
A4 = 5 × 3 + 3 × 2.5 = 22.5
A5 = 5 × 2 + 3 × 3.0 = 19.0
With c=1, and the given KIJ, we obtain the following
trip table
I\J 4 (CBD) 5 (Center) PI
1 166 504 670
2 400 450 850
3 1354 286 1640
AJ* 1920 1240

Thus, 1240 of the estimated 3160 daily shopping trips

(or 39%) will be attracted by the proposed shopping
center. Note that the productions and attractions are
defined irrespective of direction, the actual patronage
of the two centers will be half of the attractions. 20
 Calibration of the Gravity Model
• Calibration involves the determination of the
parameter c that fixes the model to the one that
reproduces the base-year observations. (using
LM A / W OP c
QIJ =P I
MM ∑ c A / W hPP )
J IJ
c

N x
x
Q Ix

• Alternatively, one can calibrate the travel-time or

F AF I
= PG J J IJ
friction factors through: QIJ
GH ∑ A F JK
I

x
.
x Ix

• The above two approaches are actually the same

1
F
since IJ =
WIJc 21
• Unlike trip generation, the calibration of trip
distribution involves an iterative process:
• an initial value of c is assumed and
LM A / W OP c
QIJ =P I
MM ∑ c A / W hPP is applied using the
J IJ
c

N x
x
Q Ix

known base-year productions, attractions, and

the impedances to compute interzonal volume
QIJ .
• The computed QIJ are then compared with the
observed values.
• an adjustment is made to c until the computed
and observed values are close to each other.
22
• More commonly, the
friction factors rather
than the parameter c is
used in the calibration
procedure.
• The comparison
between the computed
and observed QIJ is
accomplished by using
the trip-length
frequency distribution

23
 Example

• Consider the five-zone city. Two of the

zones are purely residential, and the
(10)
remaining three are purely 3
2
nonresidential. The base-year
(5)
interzonal impedances are specified in
terms of travel time in minutes and are (5)
4
(15)
shown in parentheses on the arcs (10)
joining pairs of zones. The observed
base-year productions, attractiveness, 1 (15) 5

and trip-interchange volumes are

shown in the following 2 tables.

24
(a) Base-year generation
I PI AI
1 500 0
2 1000 0
3 0 2
4 0 3
5 0 5

(b) Base-year distribution

I\J 3 4 5
1 300 150 50
2 180 600 220

It is required to find the value of c to reproduce the

observed based-year data. 25
 Solution

Note that ln F = − c ln W , one can calibrate the model

either through c or F with W fixed.
0.6
Based on Table (b) and the distance between zones, 0.5

the distribution of the total trips is given below: 0.4

0.3

W ∑ QIJ f, frequency =
0.2

0.1
column 2/sum 0

5 300+600=900 600/1500=0.60
5 10 15

10 150+180=330 330/1500=0.22
15 50+220=270 270/1500=0.18
sum = 1500 1.00

26
Assuming that c=2.0, the following are obtained:

I\J 3 4 5 0.7

0.6
1 303 114 83 0.5

2 123 741 136 0.4

2 / 52 0.3

where 303 = 500 × and so on 0.2

2 / 52 + 3 / 102 + 5 / 152 0.1

W ∑Q IJ
f 5 10 15

5 1044 1044/1500=0.70
10 237 237/1500=0.16  Observed f 
F* = F  
15 219 219/1500=0.14  calculated f 
sum = 1500 1.00  0.6  1  0.6 
where 1044=303+741 and so on F5* = F5  = 2  = 0.034
 0.7  5  0.7 
 1   0.22 
F10* =  2    = 0.01375
 10   0.16 
 1   0.18 
F15* =  2    = 0.00571
 15   0.14 
27
Using the adjusted F’s, the following results are
obtained:

I\J 3 4 5
1 251 145 104
2 176 654 170 0.7
2 × 0.0343
where 251 = 500 × , 0.6

2 × 0.0343 + 3 × 0.01375 + 5 × 0.00571 0.5

etc. 0.4

W ∑ QIJ f 0.3

5 905 905/1500=0.60 0.2

0.1
10 321 321/1500=0.21
0
15 274 274/1500=0.19 5 10 15

sum = 1500 1.00

where 905=251+654 and so on

Note that even the trip length distributions are

similar between the observed and calculated
values, the trip tables are not similar.
28
 The Fractar Model

• A growth-factor model used to estimate external

trips.
• Begins by using the base-year trip interchange data
• Assumptions:
• distribution of future trips proportional to the
present trip distribution
• future distribution modified by the growth
factor of the zone to which the trips are
attracted
• the model does not distinguish between
productions and attractions; interzonal trips
irrespective of their directions; QIJ = QJI
29
• Model relies on the following trip balance equation:

QI = ∑ QIX

af
X

• Target year trip generation QI t computed by

af
multiplying the base-year trip generation, QI b by
a simple growth factor GI .
• GI is estimated based on the anticipated land-use
changes between the base-year and the target-year

af af
QI t = GI QI b
The model consists of successive approximation and a
test of convergence in an iterative procedure.

30
1. Use growth factors to estimate QI t af
2. Define adjustment factors, RI =
QI t af
a f
QI current
3. If all RI are close to 1, stop
4. Otherwise, adjust

a f
QIJ new =
a
QIJ current RJ f af
a
∑ QIX current RX
X
QI t
f
QIJ
5. The above equation will yield two values of and
QJI
. Since the Fractar model assumes QIJ = QJI , we
take their average:
a f a
QIJ current = QJI current = f
QIJ + QJI
2

go to step 2 31
 Example

• Consider the base-year trip distribution of the simple four-zone

system. Assuming that the growth factors for the four zones are
as shown, find the target-year trip distribution.

4.10
32
 Solution

(1): Trip table of the base year

I\J 1 2 3 4 af
QI b x GI af
=QI t
1 0 20 30 15 65 2 130
2 20 0 10 40 70 2 140
3 30 10 0 35 75 3 225
4 15 40 35 0 90 1 90
af
QJ b 65 70 75 90

(2): RI
R1 R2 R3 R4
2 2 3 1

(3): Not all R’s are close to 1

33
(4): modified trip table
I\J 1 2 3 4
1 0 36 81 13
2 51 0 38 51
3 117 39 0 69
4 13 33 44 0
a f
Q12 new = 130 ×
20 × 2
0 × 2 + 20 × 2 + 30 × 3 + 15 × 1
= 3586
. , etc.

(5): average QIJ

I\J 1 2 3 4 a
QI current f
1 0 43.5 99.0 13.0 155.5
2 43.5 0 38.5 42.0 124.0
3 99.0 38.5 0 56.5 194.0
4 13.0 42.0 56.5 0 111.5
a
QJ current f 155.5 124.0 194.0 111.5
34
 (2): RI
R1 R2 R3 R4
130/155.5=0.84 1.13 1.16 0.81

If better estimates are required, repeat steps (3), (4),

etc.

• Limitations of the Fractar Model

– cannot handle new zone that is built after the base year
– convergence to the target-year generation totals is not
always possible
– model not sensitive to the impedance which has shown to
affect significantly the interzonal distribution of trips. 35
 Modal Choice

• Purpose: Mode usage (modal choice, modal

split) analysis is to estimate the proportion of
trip-makers traveling between each pair of
origin-destination zones who are likely to use
each mode (public transit or auto)

1
 Factors Affecting Modal Choice

• characteristics of trip maker (e.g., family

income, number of autos available, family size,
residential density)
• characteristics of the trip (e.g., trip purpose, trip
distance, time of day)
• characteristics of the transportation system
(e.g., riding time, excess time, costs)

2
 Approaches

• The planner predicts how the population will

choose from among the modes that are
available
– aggregate if prediction based on zonal (or inter-
zonal information)
– disaggregate if based on household or individual
data

3
 Two approaches

1. Direct generation usage modes

2. Trip interchange mode usage models

4
 Direct Generation Usage Modes

• Trips are generated by mode

• These trips-by-mode are then distributed to their
destinations
• Trips-by-mode-by-destination are then assigned to the
highway and transit networks.
• This approach is appropriate to smaller urban areas
without major transit service.
• Equations connecting trips to population (POP),
income (INC), and automobiles (AUTO), may take the
a f a f a f
form P transit = A + B POP − C INC

Paautof = A + Ba POP f + Ca AUTOf

5
4.11a
6
 Trip Interchange Mode Usage Models

• Trip interchange mode usage models are used after

the trip distribution phase.
• Income, auto availability, and trip purpose are widely
used
• This approach facilitates the inclusion of the
characteristics of the journey and those of the
alternatives modes
• Example, a model could include income as the trip-
making characteristics; trip purpose and trip
orientation (to CBD or elsewhere) are used as trip
characteristics; while difference in costs, in-vehicle
time, and excess time for each pair of zones as the
characteristics of the transportation system
7
4.11b
8
4.11c
9
4.11d

10
 Example

• Figure 4.12 shows the transit modal split for the case
of: (i) income = $10,000; (ii) CBD trips. (Non-CBD trips
and trips with other purposes and trips made by
people with different incomes would have different
curves.). If the characteristics of the transportation is
such that:
• Auto in-vehicle time is 15 minutes less than transit-in-
vehicle time (DL=-5)
• Auto usage cost is 25 cents more than transit usage
(difference = 25 cents)
• Excess time (out-of-vehicle) for auto is 3 minutes more
than transit (difference = 3)
• Then, the transit modal split is 37%.
11
4.12
12
 Utility and Disutility Functions

• A utility function measures the degree of

satisfaction that people derive from their
choices.
• A disutility function represents the generalized
cost that is associated with each choice.
• Both functions are related to the attributes of
each choice and the socioeconomic
characteristics of the decision maker.

13
• In mode choice, the characteristics of a trip also bear a
relationship to the utility associated with a particular
mode.
• The utility (disutility) function is typically expressed
as the linear weighted sum of the independent
variables:
V = a0 + a1 X 1 + a2 X 2 +...+ ah X h
• V is the utility associated with a choice, defined by the
magnitudes of the attributes X that are present in that
choice. Parameters a can be estimated from linear
regression.
14
 Example

Vcar = 0.25 − 121

. X 1 − 2.5 X 2 − 0.3 X 3 + 11
. X4

where X1 = in-vehicle travel time; X2 = access time;

X3 = cost/income; X4 = number of cars

15
 The Logit Model

• S-shaped logit curve to fit the model data in the case of two
modes.
• The model divides the travelers among the various modes
according to each mode’s relative desirability for any given trip.
• Modes are more desirable if they are faster, cheaper, or have
other more favorable features than competitive modes
• The better a mode, the higher its utility.
• Probability of using mode i, Pi is given by:
eV ai f
Pi = n
V ar f
∑ e
r =1
• where V(i) = utility of mode i, n= number of modes in
consideration.
16
S-shaped Logit Curve

17
 Example
The calibrated utility functions for auto and transit for
the study area:
Auto: Va = − 0.3 − 0.04 X − 0.1Y − 0.03C
Transit: Vt = − 0.04 X − 0.1Y − 0.03C
V i = utility function of mode i
X = in-vehicle travel time
Y = out-of-vehicle travel time
C = cost of travel (cents)/income ($)

A traffic zone has the following characteristics:

Auto Travel Transit Travel
In-vehicle time (min) 15 20
Out-of-vehicle time (min) 5 10
Travel cost (cents) 300 75

What is the probability that a person with an income

of $10,000 will travel by transit? 18
 Solution

a f af a
Auto: Va = −0.3 − 0.04 15 − 01 f
. 5 − 0.03 300 / 10000 = −14
.
Transit: V = −0.04a20f − 01
t . a10f − 0.03a75 / 10000f = −18
.
The probability of the trip maker taking transit is
eVt e −1.8
Pt = Vt = −1.8 −1.4 = 0.4 or 40%
e +e Va
e +e

19
 Example

A calibrated utility function for travel in a medium-

sized city by auto, bus, and light rail is

V = a − 0.002 X 1 − 0.05 X 2
where X1 is the cost of travel (cents) and X2 is the
travel time (min). Calculate the modal split for the
given values.

Mode a X1 X2
Auto -0.30 130 25
Bus -0.35 75 35
Light Rail -0.40 90 40

If a parking fee of $1.00 per trip is imposed, what

would be the split to the other two modes?
20
 Solution

a f a f
Va = −0.30 − 0.002 130 − 0.05 25 = −181
.
V = −0.35 − 0.002a75f − 0.05a35f = −2.25
b

V = −0.40 − 0.002a90f − 0.05a40f = −2.58

a

Mode V eV P Percent
Auto -1.81 0.164 0.475 48
Bus -2.25 0.105 0.304 30
Light Rail -2.58 0.076 0.221 22
Total 0.345 1.000 100

21
If a parking fee of $1.00 per trip is imposed,
a f a f
Va = −0.30 − 0.002 130 + 100 − 0.05 25 = −2.01
V = −0.35 − 0.002a75f − 0.05a35f = −2.25
b

V = −0.40 − 0.002a90f − 0.05a40f = −2.58

a

Mode V eV P Percent
Auto -2.01 0.134 0.425 43
Bus -2.25 0.105 0.333 33
Light Rail -2.58 0.076 0.242 24
Total 0.315 1.000 100

The $1.00 parking fee makes a 5% difference in auto

ridership.
22
 Trip Assignment

• Predict the paths to be taken by each trip.

• Output shows the paths that all trips will take,

and therefore the number of cars on each
roadway and the number of passengers on each
transit route.

1
 Process

• construct a map representing the vehicle and transit

networks
• define intersections (nodes) and sections between
intersection (links)
• identify the length, type of facility, number of lanes,
speed, travel time, etc. associated with each link
• For transit, identifies fares, headway, route
descriptions on a separate network
• information allows a computer to determine the paths
a traveler may take between any two points on the
network and assign trips between zones to these paths. 2
Fig 4-17 3
 Route Choice Behavior: Assumptions

• Travelers will select routes with the shortest

route travel time (some models also incorporate
generalized cost such as fuel consumption,
travel time, average speeds, etc.)

• Travelers know the exact travel times that

would be encountered. Strong assumption.

4
 Wardrop’s First Principle (1952)

• User equilibrium is said to exist when

individual travelers cannot improve their travel
times by unilaterally changing routes.
• or, the travel time between a specified origin
and destination on all used routes is equal, and
less than or equal to the travel time that would
be experienced by a travel on any unused route.

5
 Wardrop’s Second Principle

• Wardrop also proposed the principle of system

optimality
– the paths are assigned in such a way that the total
network-wide travel time or cost is minimized.
– this principle is useful in the planning of large
traffic studies. By using traffic elements such as
signal timing, lane allocations, etc. to discourage or
encourage traffic so that the network-wide travel
time is at a minimum

6
 Some common traffic assignment
procedures

• All or nothing traffic assignment

• capacity constrained traffic assignment
• Incremental assignment
• User-equilibrium assignment

7
 Minimum path techniques

• assumption: travelers want to use the minimum

impedance route between two routes
• It is hard to determine the minimum path
manually
• Efficient minimum-path algorithms exist. Some
determine the minimum paths between a pair
of zones, other compute the minimum tree that
contains all the interzonal minimum paths that
emanate from an origin.
8
 Minimum path techniques

• Basic minimum-tree algorithm begins at the

node of origin and proceeds outward,
successively eliminating links that clearly do
not belong on any minimum paths emanating
from the origin.
• Figures 14(b)-(c) (to show the algorithm).
• Figure 4.15.
• The minimum tree may be described
numerically by a tree table. Table 4.3 example
9
4-14

10
 Minimum tree

4.15

11
Table 4.3

Total Node preceding

Node (j) impedance to j
node (j)
1 0 -
2 3 1
3 4 1
4 5 2
5 12 4

12
 Shortest Path Algorithm

1
1
2
3
3
L(i ) + link (i , j ) < L( j )
4 2
L( j ): = L(i ) + link (i , j )
2

6 7
P ( j ): = i
5 3
2
Link Label List Predeccessor List
Tested Node 1 Node 2 Node 3 Node 5 Node 6 Node 7 Node 1 Node 2 Node 3 Node 5 Node 6 Node 7 Sequence
List
0 inf inf inf inf inf 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
"1-2 0 1 inf inf inf inf 0 1 0 0 0 0 1,2
"1-5 0 1 inf 2 inf inf 0 1 0 1 0 0 2,5
"2-3 0 1 4 2 inf inf 0 1 2 1 0 0 2,3,5
"2-6 0 1 4 2 5 inf 0 1 2 1 2 0 3,5,6
"3-7 0 1 4 2 5 6 0 1 2 1 2 3 5,6,7
"5-6 0 1 4 2 4 6 0 1 2 1 5 3 6,7
"6-2 0 1 4 2 4 6 0 1 2 1 5 3 6,7
"6-7 0 1 4 2 4 6 0 1 2 1 5 3 7 13
All or nothing traffic assignment

14
Fig4-16a
Fig 4-16
15
 Capacity constrained traffic assignment

• As traffic volume increases, speed decreases.

• This process assigns trips according to the
impedance function of the links of the network.
• By considering the direct relationship between
travel time and traffic volume, capacity
restraint can be incorporated.
• Capacity restraint attempts to balance the
assigned volume, the capacity of a facility, and
the related speed.
16
 Capacity constrained traffic assignment

• Several approaches exist for incorporating

capacity restraint. The most common method is
to load the network and adjust assume link
speeds after each loading to reflect
volume/capacity restraints.
• These loading and adjustments are introduced
until a balance is obtained.
• Experience shows that a balance can be
normally achieved after 3-4 loadings.
• This process is a more realistic representation of
traffic and is in widespread use. 17
 Link performance function

• To measure congestion effect, a link

performance function is needed to relate
traffic volume to travel time or speed

18
 BPR function

• BPR (Bureau of Public Roads) function is often

used: L O
β
F
= T M1 + α G
Q I
J P
MN H Q K PQ
TQ 0
max

TQ = travel time at traffic flow Q

T0 = zero-flow or free flow travel time =
travel time at practical capacity x 0.87
Q = traffic flow (veh/hr)
Qmax = practical capacity = (3/4) x saturation
flow (veh/hr)
α , β = parameters
19
 Davidson’s function (1966)

TQ = travel time at traffic flow Q

TQ = T0
a f
1 − 1 − τ Q / Qmax
T0 = zero-flow travel time

Q = traffic flow (veh/hr)

1 − Q / Qmax Qmax = saturation flow (veh/hr)

τ = level-of-service parameter (LOS)

• The LOS parameter is related to the type of roads, road

width, frequency of signals, pedestrian crossing, and
parked vehicles. Blunden and Black (1984) suggested
for freeways, 0.4 to 0.6 for urban arterials, and 1 to 1.5
collector roads.
20
90

80 Davidson
70
Travel Time (min)

60

50

40 BPR
30

20

10 Greenshield
0
1050

1200

1350

1500

1650

1800

1950

2100

2250
150

300

450

600

750

900
0

Q 21
 Example
Assuming that a link, 1 mile long, has a practical

capacity = 40,000 veh/day and a speed at that

capacity of 40 mph. Travel time at that volume is 1.5
min. Therefore, T0 = 15
. × 0.87 = 131
. min. If after the

link is loaded, 60,000 veh/day is assigned to it,

. and β = 4
assuming α = 015

L
. M1 + 015
F 60000I O
4

P
N H 40000K Q
T = 131 . = 2.3 min

22
or a speed of 26 mph.
 Example

A freeway section 10 miles long has a free speed of

60 mph, Qmax = 2000 veh/hr, Q=1000 veh/hr,

τ = 01
. ,α = 0.474, β = 4,T0 = 10 min. Apply the three

methods (a) Davidson’s, (b) BPR’s, (c) Greenshield’s

to find TQ.

23
 Solution

Davidson’s
1 − (1 − τ ) Q / Qmax 1 − (1 − 0.1)1000 / 2000
TQ = T0 = 10 = 11 min
1 − Q / Qmax 1 − 1000 / 2000

BPR
β
  Q     1000  
4

TQ = T0 1 + α    = 10 1 + 0.474    = 10.936 min

  Qmax     2000 × 3/ 4  

24
 Solution

Greenshield’s: Using v = A − Bk , with k=0, v=60,

A2 602
A=60. Using q = ⇒ 2000 = ⇒ B = 0.45.
4B 4B
Finally, using
F AI F 1 I F 60 I F 1 I
q=
H BK H BK
v− ⇒ 1000 =
H 0.45K H 0.45K
v−
2 2
v v

v = 512
. mph hence T=11.7 min.

25
 Incremental Assignment

• Assigns a portion of the O-D entries at each

iteration
• Travel times are then updated and an
additional portion of the O-D matrix is loaded
onto the network.

26
 Incremental Assignment

Step 0: Preliminaries. Divide each origin-destination

entry into N equal portions. (i.e. set
qrsn = qrs / N ). Set n=1 and xa0 = 0, ∀a
Step 1: Update. Set tan = ta ( xan −1 ), ∀a
Step 2: Incremental loading. Perform all-or-nothing
mr
assignment based on tan , but using only the
trip rates qrsn for each O-D pair. This yields a
m r
flow pattern wan
Step 3: Flow summation. Set xan = xan −1 + wan , ∀a
Step 4: Stopping rule. If n = N, stop (the current set of
link flows is the solution); otherwise, set
27
n=n+1 and go to step 1.
Figure 4.18b

28
29
 User equilibrium

• Wardrop’s first Principle (1952): User

equilibrium is said to exist when individual
travelers cannot improve their travel times by
unilaterally changing routes.

30
 31
F ig 4 .1 9
 Two links in Series
For continuity, flow f ij on link ij is the same. Hence,

their cost functions:

C AB = 3 + f AB
C AB = 2 + 2 f AB

f AC = f AB = f BC
a f a
C AC = C AB + CBC = 3 + f AB + 2 + 2 f BC f
= 5 + 3 f AC
a f
If f AC = 100, C AC = 5 + 3 × 100 = 305 , with
C AB = 3 + 100 = 103, CBC = 2 + 2 × 100 = 202
Note that when links are in series, we add the cost
of each link to obtain the total cost. 32
 Two links in parallel

Cost functions:
C1 = 2 + f1
C2 = 2 + 2 f 2
We want to find the cost of travel from A to B that
satisfies the user equilibrium condition.
f AB = f1 + f 2
f1 = C1 − 2
C2
f2 = −1
2
33
Since C1 = C2 (Wardrop’s principle),

f AB = f 1 + f 2 = 3C1 / 2 − 3

C1 = 2 +
a
2 f1 + f 2 f
3
L 2a f + f f O 2f
C AB = C = C = M2 + 1
P =2+2 AB
1
N2
3 Q 3
For a cost of CAB, there will be f 2 vehicles on path

2 and f1 vehicles on path 1. For example, if

a f
f AB = 99, C AB = 2 + 2 / 3 × 99 = 68 , and

C1 = 68, C2 = 68; f1 = 68 − 2 = 66, f 2 = 34 − 1 = 33.

34
 Transport Networks with a Demand
Function
Case 1: Single road (two links in series)

Supply functions:
C AB = 4 + 2 f AB
C AB = 4 + 4 f AB
For continuity,
f AC = f AB = f BC
a f a
C AC = C AB + CBC = 4 + 2 f AB + 4 + 4 f BC f
= 8 + 6 f AC
35
 36
Fig. 4-20
Demand function:
C AC = 248 − 4 f AC

Equating supply and demand functions, we have:

8 + 6 f AC = 248 − 4 f AC
10 f AC = 240 ⇒ f AC = 24
C AC = 4 + 2 f AB = 4 + 2(24) = 52
CBC = 4 + 4 f BC = 4 + 4(24) = 100
a f a f
Total cost C AC = 152 or = 8 + 6 f AC = 8 + 6 42 = 152

37
Case 2: Parallel roads (two links) (Figure 4.20a)

C1
f1 = − 2
2
C2
f2 = −1
4
C1 C2
f AB = f1 + f 2 = − 2 + − 1
2 4

38
According to Wardrop’s principle, C1 = C2 ,

therefore,

f1 + f 2 =
a 3C − 12f
1
and
4

C1 =
a
4 f1 + f 2 + 12 f
3

C AB = C1 = C2 =
a f
4 f 1 + f 2 + 12
3
4a f + f f + 12 4a f f
+3
Supply function = C AB = 1 2
= AB

3 3
39
Demand function = 248 − 4 f AB = C AB

Equating supply and demand:

a
4 f AB + 3 f
= 248 − 4 f AB
3
Solving:

f AB = 45.75

C AB =
a f
4 f1 + f 2 + 12
= 65 = C1 = C2
3
C1
f1 = − 2 = 30.5
2
C2
f2 = − 1 = 15.25
4
f1 + f 2 = 30.5 + 15.25 = 45.75 40
 Mathematical Programming Approach
to User-Equilibrium
• When there are many alternatives, equating
route travel time can be very tedious.
• mathematical program can resolve this
obstacle
• this formulation permits an equilibrium
solution to very complex networks with many
O-D’s.

41
 z
fn

af
min y f = ∑ Cn w dw
n
af
0

af
where n denotes a specific route and Cn w is

the performance function corresponding to

route n (f denotes flow).

Subject to: f n ≥ 0 and q = ∑ f n .

n

42
 Example

• Determine route flows in network of Figure

4.19(b) by formulating the problem as a
mathematical program

43
the cost functions are:
C1 = 2 + f 1
C2 = 2 + 2 f 2
Therefore,

a f z a2 + wfdw + z a2 + 2wfdw
f1 f2

y f =
0 0

Assuming that the total demand is 99,

f 1 + f 2 = 99 ⇒ f 2 = 99 − f1
44
 a f z a2 + wfdw + z a2 + 2wfdw
f1 f2

y f =
0 0

F 1 I 99 − f
+ c2 w + w h
f
H 2 K 0
2 2
= 2w + w 2 2

0
3 2
= f 2 − 100 f 2 + 198
2
Setting the first derivative to zero:
af
dy f
= 3 f 2 − 99 = 0
df 2
Therefore, f 2 = 33, f 1 = 66 , the same result as before.
45